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Tikjøb and Verner
Conflict Climate change may exacerbate existing risks of conflict rooted in socioeconomic factors. That may happen for several reasons, for example, if climate change diminishes the supplies of food, water, forests, energy, and land or encourages migration. Other dangers will occur if climate change undermines the capacity of the state, for example, by raising the costs of infrastructure in remote areas, thus limiting the reach of the state; by eroding fiscal resources; or by weakening the legitimacy of a state if it cannot provide basic needs for affected populations. If natural disasters are more frequent and severe, chaotic conditions may provide opportunities for rebel groups to challenge the government’s authority. Whether violent conflict is induced by climate change will likely depend on how scarcities are perceived and communicated by key political actors. Though most LAC countries are relatively strong, middleincome societies with accountable governments, the adverse impacts of climate change and variability are likely to put further stress on those already suffering from high income inequality and crime rates. That could lead some factions within weak political systems to exploit the situation rhetorically and mobilize groups for conflict over scarce resources. The political economy should be considered to the same degree as environmental degradation as an underlying reason for violent conflict due to climate change. Adapting effectively to climate change and avoiding violent conflict will require both local and national governments to be inclusive of the most vulnerable groups in society, ensuring that they are heard and represented in dialogues with other stakeholder groups. Addressing underlying political tensions and socioeconomic inequalities constitutes a “no-regrets” policy that will allow local communities and individual households to build resilience against climate change and conflicts that it might induce. Key policy recommendations to prevent violent conflict from climate change include the following: • Decentralize decision making in preparations for climate change and extreme events, to increase community participation, voice coalition, and local governance. • Improve integrated natural resource management and tailor it to local circumstances through formulation of context-specific policies and institutional arrangements. • Develop capacity-building programs to increase and improve the dialogue between indigenous communities and local governments.