Introduction
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take place over this century that will generally be in the direction of more of the extremes, that is, more intensive precipitation, longer dry spells and warm spells, heat waves with higher temperatures than generally experienced up to now, and more numerous severe hurricanes. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2007a), further increases are expected in floods and droughts and in the intensity of tropical cyclones. Regional hot spots are shown in figure 1.3. The countries in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, which are often assailed by intense hurricanes, can expect these storms to become even fiercer as a result of climate change. Other important issues are the destruction of coral reefs and a growing threat to southeast Pacific fish stocks due to increasing sea surface temperatures. A rise in sea level would likely bring flooding to low-lying regions such as the coasts of El Salvador and Guyana and could exacerbate social and political tensions in the region. Figure 1.3
Key Climate Change Hot Spots for Latin America
Coastal and water-related hotspots: 1
Coral reefs and mangroves seriously threatened by warmer sea surface temperature.
2
Under the worst sea level rise scenario, mangroves are very likely to disappear from low-lying coastlines.
3 4
Increases in aridity and scarcity of water resources.
5
Caribbean
3 1 2
Mesoamerica
Water availability and hydro electric generation seriously reduced due to reduction in glaciers. Rio de la Plata coasts threatened by increasing storm surges and sea level rise.
2 2 Bridge between the continents 2
2
2
4 2
1
3
4
Flora and fauna hotspots: 1
Amazonia: loss of 43% of 69 tree species by the end of the 21st century; savannization of the eastern part.
2 3
Cerrados: losses of 24% of 138 tree species for a temperature increase of 2째C.
Brazilian Cerrado
4
2
Sharp increase in extinction of mammals, birds, butterflies, frogs and reptiles by 2050.
Human-related hotspots: 1 2 3
Tropical Andes
Reduction of suitable lands for coffee. Ozone depletion and skin cancer.
Atlantic Forest
3
1
3
3 Central 4 Chile 4 3
5
Severe land degradation and desertification. Increased vulnerability to extreme events. Sites where biodiversity is currently severely threatened, a trend very likely to continue in the future
2
IBRD 37781 MAY 2010 Source: Adapted from IPCC 2007b.