Simulating the Effects of Climate Change on Poverty and Inequality
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Table 9.3 Peru: Estimated Impact of Climate Change on per Capita Income, 2008–58 State Amazonas Ancash Apurimac Arequipa Ayacucho Cajamarca Callao Cusco Huancavelica Huanuco Ica Junin La Libertad Lambayeque Lima Loreto Madre de Dios Moquegua Pasco Piura Puno San Martin Tacna Tumbes Ucayali Total
Impact on per capita income (% change) –8.4 –0.8 5.0 3.0 3.3 –2.5 –4.8 5.2 5.8 –1.9 –3.3 2.3 –3.3 –6.7 –4.3 –15.5 –10.0 0.5 3.0 –6.5 9.4 –12.4 –0.5 –7.7 –14.6 –2.3
Source: Authors’ estimations.
effects are stronger in the north, which is expected to experience more warming, than in the south, but all regions are projected to experience a significant negative impact from climate change (holding all else constant). In Chile, as in Peru, climate change is estimated to contribute to increasing poverty but not to increased inequality between municipalities. Figure 9.5 plots the estimated change in incomes for each municipality against the current level of incomes. A very weak, barely statistically significant, negative relationship (ρ = –0.12) indicates that while future climate change is likely to have a negative effect on incomes and increase poverty, it is not going to contribute to increased inequality between municipalities.