Migration and Climate Change
Table 7.3
209
Bolivia: Regression Findings for the Three Migration Models
Explanatory variables
Model 1: Out-migration
Constant
105.385 (6.01)
Distanceij
Model 2: Destination choice 12.845 (13.65) –14.771 (–47.73)
Characteristics of sending municipality Average temperaturei –10.163 (–4.21) 0.401 (Average temperaturei)2 (4.73) Average rainfalli –51.864 (–3.15) 12.720 (Average rainfalli)2 (2.59) Per capita consumptioni 0.268 (2.97) –0.0004 (Per capita consumptioni)2 (–2.21) Share in secondary and tertiary sectorsi (Share in secondary and tertiary sectorsi)2
Model 3: Migration rates 1.484 (13.76) –1.687 (–51.42) –0.107 (–12.48) 0.004 (14.26) –0.175 (–7.62)
0.002 (5.34) –0.000003 (–4.39) –0.370 (–2.42)
55.2970 (3.67)
0.756 (4.59)
Urbanization ratei
–0.197 (–4.12)
Education leveli Municipal spending per capitai Population densityi Share of municipality with steep slopei
–0.171 (–2.24) –0.410 (–2.92) 0.512 (5.09)
0.001 (4.98) –0.003 (–5.45) 0.002 (6.76)
Density of secondary roadsi Oil concessioni
–0.066 (–3.12) 0.110 (4.66)
Forestry concessioni Characteristics of receiving municipality Average temperaturej (Average temperaturej)2
11.105 (–11.00) 0.045 (12.76)
–0.119 (–12.98) 0.005 (15.11) (continued)