Agrarian Livelihoods and Climate Change
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as a “situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life� (FAO 2002). Though the proportion of undernourished people in the region has generally been decreasing over the past two decades, hunger and malnutrition remain a major problem among the rural poor, particularly among those with little or no access to land.3 Projections of the biophysical effects of climate change and variability on hunger in the LAC region suggest that an additional 1 million people could be short of food by 2020 (Parry and others 2004). And in Brazil, simulations indicate that an average reduction of 18 percent in agricultural output could lead to an increase in rural poverty of 2 to 3.2 percentage points (De la Torre, Fajnzylber, and Nash 2009). Climate change may also affect food security indirectly, notably by increasing the demand for bioenergy in an effort to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, affecting world food prices. Increasing the use of energy from biological sources presents both opportunities and risks for food security. It could create new market opportunities for agriculture, foster rural development, and alleviate poverty, not least by improving rural access to sustainable energy. But if not managed sustainably, it could seriously threaten food security, especially for some of the most vulnerable people. Rising demand may raise food prices and increase food price volatility, compounding the food-price effects of more frequent floods and droughts across the world. Higher food prices will have both positive and negative effects on rural poverty, affecting food producers and food consumers in opposite directions. The net effect in most low-income countries, however, including those in Latin America and the Caribbean, is to increase the poverty rate (Ivanic and Martin 2008). It must be said that the socioeconomic environment is a more important determinant of food security than are the biophysical impacts of climate change (Tubiello and Fischer 2007). Much depends on the socioeconomic status of a country or a population group prior to climate change (FAO 2006). In a poor agrarian society, a failure in agricultural production exacerbates poverty, malnutrition, and hunger for all, not just those whose primary activity is agriculture. It also increases dependency on other sources of income and livelihood. Recurrent production failures erode livelihood assets, exacerbating poverty and eventually leading to migration. Much will therefore depend on implementation of pro-poor policies to combat these effects.