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Higher-level, formal institutions such as local and state governments also participate in promoting and facilitating social capital. But if the state does not step in and help its weakest citizens in the face of growing climate risks, relationships with individuals and informal institutions outside the immediate community (“bridging social capital,” as explained in chapter 10) may be crucial in recovering from a disastrous event; they allow the pooling of risk with people who are not being devastated by the same calamity at the same time. Remittances, for example, have been crucially important during natural disasters. Without such bridging social capital, people may be forced to migrate. Conflict and instability then often follow, making the most marginal sections of society more vulnerable.
Policy Perspectives Climate-induced changes in resource flows—especially through erosion of key assets—will affect the viability of some livelihoods unless measures are taken to protect and diversify them through adaptation. Not all groups are affected equally, even within a given natural disaster hot spot, however. Hence there is a rationale for applying a context-specific vulnerability analysis using an asset-based framework to ensure a strong match between the needs of particular vulnerable groups and whatever interventions are planned to assist them. As part of such asset-based vulnerability analyses, it may be helpful to distinguish between the natural hazards caused by increased climate variability of the type we can already observe and the projected long-term trends (30 years and up) for climate change, which might cause more severe natural hazards. Such a distinction has implications for the analysis of asset erosion and vulnerability, particularly with respect to notions of resilience, adaptation, and development. The distinction, in turn, will affect how hazard-risk management is considered for and by the poorest groups. In other words, is it more important to manage the climate variability that is already being felt, or to concentrate on the long term, to increase resilience and prepare people to adapt to the natural hazards to come 30 years from now? Governance structures are pivotal in determining the impact of natural hazards on livelihoods. The most vulnerable groups often suffer disproportionately from weak, unresponsive local institutions. Community participation, voice coalition, and local governance relating to natural