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World Bank Working Paper
significant for explaining differences on retention rate across schools (see the model in Appendix 2.5). Repetition and the student teacher ratio have negative significant effects on retention.18 Repetition is the factor that has the highest quantitative negative effect. This must be related to parents’ perception of school. A high repetition rate in primary education may be considered by parents as a reason why their children shouldn’t continue to attend school, increasing the dropout risk. International studies (Mingat and Sosale, 2001) done in 50 countries have confirmed this, showing that one percentage point less of repetition is associated with an increase of survival rate by 0.8 percentage point (for more details see Chapter 4). Temporary and open air classrooms also have a negative effect on child retention within the whole primary cycle. “However, there is no empirical evidence proving that school equipment (e.g., electricity, water, library, and latrine) has a negative effect on retention.” A policy targeting i) the completion of incomplete schools and ii) a reduction in repetition (from 20 percent to 10 percent) might help to increase the global retention in primary education from 32 to 50 percent. Ten percent more would be due to the supply of educational continuity and 8 percent more (0.8 x (20% – 10%)) would come from repetition reduction. Reasons for Dropping Out As Declared by School Heads and Students It is useful to complement the previous quantitative analysis with more qualitative information that could be gathered from declarations of school heads (EMIS 2007) and from students themselves (IHS 2 2004). In EMIS 2007 (table 2.8), the main reason given by school heads for explaining dropout is the family responsibilities of the students (44 percent for boys and 41 percent for girls). Hidden within this reason could be children who drop out of school because they become heads of household as a result of the death of their parents. Marriage appears to be a major issue, particularly for girls. Marriage is responsible for 9 percent of dropouts as declared by school heads. It increases after Standard 5 and reaches 41 percent at the end of the cycle. Pregnancy is also the reason that 4 percent of all girls drop out, starting with 2 percent in Standard 4 and reaching 21 percent in Standard 8. These figures seem to be consistent with information from EMIS 2007, stating that 69 percent of girls attending Standard 8 are over age (more than 13 years old), with 22 percent being over 16. Another report (MICS, 2006) mentions that 15 percent of women have their first birth between 16 and 18 years of age. Employment is stated as the main reason in 12 percent of the cases for boys; sickness and death account for a total 4 percent. IHS 2 2004 provides similar information, but this time as declared by students themselves (see table 2.9). Three main reasons (75 percent of the explanations) are given by students to explain dropouts: