Executive Summary
The climate is changing, and ECA is already experiencing the consequences: increasing variability, warmer temperatures, changing hydrology, and more extremes—droughts, floods, heat waves, windstorms, and forest fires. With a legacy of environmental mismanagement and underinvestment in infrastructure and housing, the region is already vulnerable to the current climate conditions because of its “adaptation deficit,” which can only increase with projected climate changes. In the near term, the region’s vulnerability is dominated by non-climatic factors, including socioeconomic and environmental issues that are the legacy of the former Soviet system. These will exacerbate climate risks and hamper the ability of sectors that could gain from climate change, such as agriculture, to reap full benefits. Certainty about global warming and the dismal consequences of unmitigated emissions coexist with uncertainty about local impacts and the timing of particular weather events. Policy makers at national and local levels, individuals, and business owners may face substantial uncertainty as to what to adapt to. The focus therefore must not be on precise impact assessment, but on reducing vulnerability, starting with vulnerability to the current climate. Postponing action until more is known would be a mistake. It would also preclude taking xix