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Low-Carbon Development for Mexico
Table C.1 Fuel Cost Assumptions for MEDEC Interventions Type of fuel
Cost in 2009 ($/GJ)
Annual cost increase (%)
Gasoline
15.98
0.567
Diesel
12.84
0.527
7.39
0.403
12.09
0.469
Fuel oil LPG Natural gas
7.85
0.190
Coal
2.07
0.471
Coke
15.02
0.471
Source: Authors.
Table C.2 Downstream and Upstream Emissions t CO2e/GJ Type of fuel
Downstream emissions
Upstream emissions
Gasoline
0.0693
0.0160
Diesel
0.0741
0.0173
Fuel oil
0.0774
0.0038
LPG
0.0631
0.0130
Natural gas
0.0561
0.0135
Coal
0.0946
0.0090
Coke
0.1082
0.0090
Source: Hondo 2005; IPCC 2007; Yan 2008.
Electricity Sector According to the government’s official outlook, electricity demand is expected to grow 4.9 percent a year through 2016 (SENER 2007). A growth rate of 3.9 percent a year was assumed for the period 2017–30. The selection of power-generation technologies (additions and withdrawals) for the period 2007–16 is based on the official outlook. Technologies beyond 2016 are based on the following assumptions: • • • •
Expansion is based on demand projections and meeting the load curve. Expansion is based on least-cost technology. Old power plants are withdrawn. Environmental requirements for criteria pollutants (particulates, SO2, and NOX) are met.
Investment costs are based on international values (World Bank 2008). Operations and maintenance costs and fuel consumption figures reflect Mexico’s local conditions (CFE 2008a). Unit costs are the same regardless of scale (no economies of scale are considered). The cost of cooling water is