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Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters: The Economics of Effective Prevention
is a potential customer—or would pocket the revenue by selling it to one. Generic weather forecasts and warnings are public goods, and such attempts to generate revenues from sale of data or forecasts inhibit the data sharing essential for good regional and global forecasts. The potential benefits of greater spending on hydro-met services will be realized only if the spending is well directed and organized. The need for a complete meteorological forecasting system must be well identified before spending on expensive technologies, such as Doppler radars, which can run between $1 million to 2 million per unit, and several are needed. A satellite system costs about $380 million. Running it costs about $50 million.16 The United States with frequent tornados reduced the annual death toll by an average of 79 and injuries by 1,052 thanks to more accurate forecasting (from 40 to 75 percent) (Simmons and Sutter 2005). And the use of Doppler Radar’s ability to identify tornados while still in the clouds has led to the longer lead time for tornado warnings (from 5.3 minutes to 10). But these expenditures may not be warranted in other countries if hazards do not occur or are less frequent. The point is not that Doppler radars are unwarranted but that spending on expensive equipment has to be carefully assessed against the needs and means of a country. Operational and maintenance costs also need to be considered for long-term sustainability. Also, more mundane needs such as estimating and calibrating models, carrying out hazard analysis, and using past data, which in many countries is stored in warehouses on deteriorating paper, may have high returns. Digitizing these data is low tech with high returns. In addition to gains from short-term weather forecasts, seasonal forecasts are also improving to support medium and longer term socioeconomic decision making. Recurring climatic patterns (like the El Niño Southern Oscillation) can now be forecast with a few months lead time in some places and for some periods of the year. Predicting droughts (a big killer in Africa) requires not only weather forecasts but also data on air temperature, humidity, soil moisture, vegetation, ground, and reservoir levels. National agencies must begin to gather such data and learn to use it effectively if local droughts are to be forecast accurately. Analyzing risks, issuing timely warnings, and activating responses
Establishing early warning systems requires much information. The spatial distribution of hazards, their severity, timing, and frequency are largely a matter of science. But their economic effects require assembling data that governments already have in some form. These data must be systematically analyzed to determine whether and where early warning systems should be established. Cost-benefit analysis is a good guide. In some cases, one may only need to identify and analyze one major risk (or a few risks) that is (are) sufficient to justify producing warnings, which would then be available to minimize other risks that may not be as easy to quantify.