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civil society is strong, although not identified as such by international agencies), but not in the political sphere. Independent media are now creating those links, which are among the first conditions for political mobilization. Societies are learning to challenge governments: they go on strike even when the law forbids strikes, and they organize demonstrations and sit-ins to protest price increases, lack of water, or loss of land. The protests are initiated by two types of actor: the poor and marginalized and the elites who give priority to political demands—constitutional reforms, free and fair elections, the abrogation of emergency laws, freedom of expression, the independence of the judiciary, and so on. Faced with such protests, governments are reluctant to suppress the movements, which they know are now covered by local and international television cameras. There are two very positive aspects about these movements. First, the expressions of discontent and the mobilization crystallize around social and political issues and much less around issues of identity and religion. Second, these movements, whether grassroots or elite based, are calling for peaceful, gradual change through legal means and a process controlled by the state. Governments are trying to close down these new spaces for expression and mobilization, but the protest movements are not receding. In fact, they are increasing with the deteriorating social conditions. In the face of the unbridled rise in prices of vital products, governments have come up with short-term solutions, at best. The specter of major social and political unrest is looming. The region has to cope with economic deprivation that affects at least 80 percent of the overall Arab population. Of 320 million Arabs, only about 5 to 20 percent at most (or about 50 million) benefited from the second oil boom in the first decade of the twenty-first century. The rest are poor, and their poverty has either increased or has failed to diminish, as has begun to occur in many emerging countries of the global South. In addition to economic deprivation, social and political disenfranchisement is increasing. These increased hardships are fueling the protest movements, but they are not the initial trigger. The reasons for the awakening are structural and will probably be difficult to reverse. Peoples’ state of mind is changing. The sense of powerlessness is waning, and it is widely recognized that the change in peoples’ minds is a key driver of democratic transition, as has been witnessed over the past 30 years, first in southern Europe, then in Latin America and in Eastern and Central Europe.
What Societies Fear As unhappy as societies are with their governments, they seek to protect state institutions and the stability of the political system. Scenes of instability in their immediate environment act as a deterrent against fostering abrupt change and shape the attitudes of opposition forces. Radical groups advocating violence find little support within society. In the Arab Republic of Egypt, for example, some jihadist