CHAPTER 3
Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation Menus for Study Countries
This chapter summarizes the results of efforts to develop an adaptation menu in each of the four countries in the study. The results at the country level provide more detail about the differences among the four countries, particularly with regard to crops at risk from climate change and water availability. This chapter focuses on three aspects of the country-level results: • The climate hazard to the agricultural sector, in particular, annual and seasonal changes in temperature and precipitation; • The impact assessment results, which combine climate stress, baseline adaptive capacity, and detailed simulation modeling in the crop and water resources sectors; and • The resulting menu of adaptation options for each country.
Albania Climate Risk Analysis of recent climate data and information gathered from the study’s farmer workshops support the finding of an increasing trend in temperature in Albania. Farmers also observed an increasing trend in extreme heat events. Analysis indicates this trend will accelerate in Albania in the near future, as indicated in map 3.1. Although uncertainty remains as to the degree of warming that will occur in Albania, the overall warming trend is clear and evident in all four agro-ecological zones (AEZs), with average warming over the next 40 years of about 1.5oC, much greater than the increase of less than 0.5oC observed over the last 50 years. Changes in precipitation are much more uncertain than temperature changes, as demonstrated in map 3.2. The medium impact forecast indicates a decline in average annual precipitation for Albania of about 50 mm by 2050, most of this decline occurring in the lowlands AEZ. The range of outcomes across the low and
Looking Beyond the Horizon • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9768-8
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