91
Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation Menus for Study Countries
Figure 3.6 FYR Macedonia: Estimated Effect of Climate Change on Mean Monthly Runoff, 2040–50 7 6
Runoff (m3 billions)
5 4 3 2 1 0 Jan
Feb Base
Mar
Apr
May
Low impact
Jun Jul Aug Sep Month Medium impact
Oct
Nov
Dec
High impact
Table 3.11 FYR Macedonia: Effect of Climate Change on Forecast Annual Irrigation Water Shortfall by Basin and Climate Scenario Climate scenario (shortfall in irrigation water relative to total irrigation water demand) Low impact 2040s
Medium impact 2040s
Basin Radika
0
0
0
0
0
0
Pcinja
2.3
3.7
5.5
7.9
8.0
10.9
Vardar
0
0
0
0
0
0
Bregalnica
0
0
0
0
0
0
Crna
99.3
36.3
178
55.7
193
57.5
Total
102
13.2
184
20.9
201
22.2
% shortfall
m3, thousands
High impact 2040s
m3, thousands
% shortfall
m3, thousands
% shortfall
which shows that all crops in the Crna basin in all three AEZs in the medium and high impact scenarios are negatively affected by climate change once irrigation water supply limitations are taken into account. An exception is the alpine AEZ for the low impact scenario. Also, yield effects in the Pcinja basin, where water shortages are estimated to be more moderate, are very similar to those for the unconstrained irrigation water case. Looking Beyond the Horizon • http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9768-8