Figure 1.18
Changes in the Total Fertility Rate across Countries, 1990–2009
1990–1997
Ukraine
Slovenia
Romania Russian Federation
Lithuania
Latvia
Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic
Hungary
Estonia
Bulgaria Czech Republic
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Uzbekistan
Turkmenistan
Turkey
Poland Slovak Republic Tajikistan
Montenegro
Georgia Macedonia, FYR Moldova
Albania
Bosnia and Herzegovina
1.0 0.5 0.0 –0.5 –1.0 –1.5 –2.0 –2.5
1998–2009
Source: World Development Indicators Database, World Bank, Washington, DC, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-developmentindicators/.
which may explain the increase in fertility in countries such as Tajikistan. However, the data do not indicate any association in the region between the total fertility rate and GDP per capita or growth in GDP per capita. The low fertility rate is a concern among policy makers because of the implications for the demographic transition and because the fertility rate does not seem to be responding in the short run, at least, to policy changes. Some countries, such as Croatia and Romania, are concerned about the implications of the low fertility rate and have adopted mechanisms to encourage families to have children. We note two of these policies: first, these countries are generous in terms of maternity leave coverage, but not as generous in parental leave; second, child allowances are provided instead of childcare services.
Abortion and Contraceptive Use
The variables commonly used to explain fertility are marriage rates, abortion rates, contraceptive use, the duration of breastfeeding, and age at first marriage. Marriage rates, although relevant, are becoming less important in explaining fertility because of the increasing number of births out of wedlock. Thus, although 70 percent of children are born in wedlock, the share of extramarital births has increased by 50 percent since the late 1990s.
Abortion rates are decreasing in the region as women obtain access to modern methods of contraception. The average abortion rate in the region declined considerably between 1999 and 2008, from 25 to 15 abortions per 1,000 women 15 to 49 years of age. However, the average is still higher than the rates in the OECD. The abortion rate was only 6 in Germany and Switzerland, for example (figure 1.19). Despite the declining trend in the region, the abortion rate remains high in many countries; it has even increased in Georgia. The abortion rate in Estonia, Romania, and Russia is more than two times higher than the average in Europe and Central Asia. In Georgia, the abortion rate increased during the last decade. Additionally, in the region, there is a positive association between the use of modern methods of contraception and abortion rates. In three countries (Estonia, Romania, and Russia), the use of contraception is above 70 percent among women between 15 and 49 years of age. The age at first birth does not seem to be a determinant of fertility in most countries in the region. In countries with higher fertility rates, women tend to have their first born at a younger age. However, the fact that the fertility rate is low in these countries (slightly above 2 children per woman) and that the average age at first birth is relatively high (above 27 years of age) suggests that there is probably no causGender Issues in Human Capital
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