Figure 1.7
Women’s Advantage in Life Expectancy, Selected Countries and Regions, 2005–10 averages, years
Sub-Saharan Africa South-Central Asia Northern Africa Eastern Asia Serbia Azerbaijan Macedonia, FYR Turkey Montenegro Bosnia and Herzegovina Tajikistan Western Europe Czech Republic Albania Uzbekistan Armenia Latin America and the Caribbean Croatia Aging Populations Young Populations Georgia Bulgaria Romania Slovenia Kyrgyz Republic Moldova Europe and Central Asia Central and Eastern Europe Slovakia Hungary Commonwealth of Independent States Turkmenistan Aged Populations Poland Latvia Estonia Ukraine Lithuania Belarus Kazakhstan Russian Federation
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Source: World Bank staff calculations based on UN (2009a).
Life Expectancy and Mortality
Two drivers are determining the forecasted demographic transition: changes in mortality rates and changes in fertility rates. Mortality rates and health outcomes have dramatically improved in the region; in particular, during the last decade, the mortality rate has somewhat improved among men, leading to a contraction of about a year in the gender gap in life expectancy. However, the high male mortality rate relative to the female mortality rate is persisting in many countries. This is associated with a variety of factors, including alcohol abuse. The gender gap in life expectancy in the region is larger than the global average, including Western Europe, and varies greatly across countries within the region. As a general average, women can be expected to outlive men by four years, but, in Europe and Central Asia, this difference is seven years (figure 1.7). In all the countries in the region, the difference in life expectancy surpasses the world average of four years. In the countries in which the gap is smaller (Azerbaijan, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, and Turkey), the difference is only slightly more than four years. However, the gap is three times larger in Belarus, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, and
the Russian Federation. The large gap in life expectancy may be driven by the high adult male mortality rate observed in some of these countries. The gender gap in life expectancy in the countries of the region needs to be narrowed. The average change in the gap in life expectancy in the region has closed by one year; however, the variability in the change in the gap in life expectancy is large (measured by statistical variance) (figure 1.8). In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the gap has closed by 12 years, mostly because of a recovery in male life expectancy. At the opposite extreme, the gender gap in life expectancy in Belarus has increased in the past five years: while male life expectancy has increased (by 0.3 years), female life expectancy has increased even more (1.8 years).14 During the last decade, the negative trend in male life expectancy that has been common in certain countries of the region has reversed. Although the average trend in life expectancy in the region has been positive for men and women since the beginning
14
Figure 1.8 shows changes in the gender gap in life expectancy; annex A, table A.1 shows the values.
Gender Issues in Human Capital
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