Female
10,000
5,000
0
–5,000
–10,000
–15,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
–5,000
–10,000
–15,000
15,000
10,000
100+ 90–94 80–84 70–74 60–64 50–54 40–44 30–34 20–24 10–14 0–4
5,000
100+ 90–94 80–84 70–74 60–64 50–54 40–44 30–34 20–24 10–14 0–4 0
100+ 90–94 80–84 70–74 60–64 50–54 40–44 30–34 20–24 10–14 0–4 –5,000
l. ECA – aged population countries, 2050
–10,000
k. ECA – aged population countries, 2025
–15,000
j. ECA – aged population countries, 2000
15,000
Population Pyramids, Selected Countries and the Region, 2000, 2025, 2050. (Continued)
Figure 1.6
Male
Source: World Bank staff calculations based on UN (2009a). Note: Young countries include the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The aging countries are Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kazakhstan, FYR Macedonia, and Moldova. Aged countries are Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and Ukraine. Each bar represents a five-year age-group. Women are indicated in blue; men are indicated in red.
percent in the region, of which almost two-thirds (59 percent) were women. Because of the accelerated aging, the proportion of the elderly will rise to 22 percent, of which 57 percent will be women by 2025. The higher proportion of elderly women has potential fiscal ramifications through the pension and social protection systems. The majority of countries in Europe and Central Asia are aging rapidly, and the number of employable persons is falling. A total of 17 countries in the region are experiencing a demographic implosion.13 The number of persons between the ages of 20 and 60 years will fall from 182 million to 162 million between 2000 and 2025, equal to an 11 percent decrease. To prevent a sharp decline in economic activity, one might try to maintain the size of the labor force by attracting temporarily or permanently inactive women and retaining working women in the labor force for a longer period of time by delaying retirement (so that it is equal to men’s retirement age). Yet, to achieve higher female labor force participation, the supporting institutional infrastructure (for example, child-
14
care and appropriate parental leave) needs to be in place, and there need to be changes in retirement laws.
Health Along most health indicators, the region is converging toward the high-income OECD countries. In most of the indicators on demography and health, the region performs well compared with Latin America or East Asia. Though the region lagged behind the OECD at the beginning of the transition, most indicators have converged during the past decade. However, there is significant diversity in the region: selected countries show health indicators similar to those in other, less-developed regions.
13
The countries are Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, the Russian Federation, Serbia, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, and Ukraine.
Opportunities for Men and Women: Emerging Europe and Central Asia