Table of Contents
The Strezevo Case Study .......................................................................................................... 89 Methods and Data ..............................................................................................................90 Base Case ...........................................................................................................................90 Climate Change Case ..........................................................................................................90 Adaptation Case ................................................................................................................. 92 Results .....................................................................................................................................93 Adaptation Cases................................................................................................................96 Conclusions............................................................................................................................100 The Way Forward – Developing Future Capacity........................................................................102 Chapter 6: Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................105 Major Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 107 Major Recommendations ........................................................................................................108 References .....................................................................................................................................110 Annex I: Economic Theory and Additional Data for Evaluating Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Demand for Space Heating and Cooling .............................................. 115 Economic Theory: Diagrammatic Exposition of How Consumers and Producers Respond to Changes in Outdoor Temperatures .................................................. 115 Simulated Temperature Changes and Heating-Cooling Degree Day Calculations ...................123 Methodology for Linking Changes in Outdoor Air Temperature to Changes in Heating and Cooling Degree Days in MARKAL to Reflect Climate Change ...........................124 Annex II: Modelling Information and Base Case Data for Analysing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture ..................................................................127 Valuing the Economic Damages of Yield Reductions in the Agricultural Sector from the Bottom-Up .....................................................................127 Agronomic Models ............................................................................................................ 128 Agro-Economic Models...................................................................................................... 129 Valuing the Economic Damages of Climate Change on irrigation Water Availability and the Benefits and Costs of Additional Reservoir Storage for Irrigation ............................. 131 Results ................................................................................................................................... 134 The Base Case ...................................................................................................................134 Index of Figures ...............................................................................................................................137 Index of Tables ................................................................................................................................139
|5|