| Assessing the Economic Impact of Climate Change – National Case Studies |
be carried out by the Ministry of Agriculture. A thorough investigation of the cost-benefit of this investment is still necessary. The World Bank, the EBRD, and other international finance institutions may be interested to participate in such a study linked to a possible investment. A number of shortcomings in analytical capacity were identified. z
First, there is limited capacity to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop yields via crop models.
z
Second, there is limited capacity to simulate changes in the hydrological cycle using rainfall runoff models.
z
Third, there is little sector-level modelling that has been carried out.
The adaptation of crop models is a “no regrets” option. Better understanding of the impacts on crop yields of various inputs can help benefit the sector regardless of climate change. The development of these crop models can be done through either an academic research programme or via the Hydrometeorological Service. Improved capacity to simulate changes and better model the hydrological cycle using rainfall runoff models is a “no regrets” option. Building this capacity would assist in planning for climate change. It would also improve understanding of the impacts of precipitation on current water availability for various uses (including irrigation and hydropower). Additional analysis of the sector is a “no regrets” option. This would include developing linear programming models which can be used for analysing current and future farm management and sector management options. It also includes further investigation of irrigation possibilities to see if they are actually “no regrets” adaptation options. Finally, it includes expanding the analysis to more agricultural areas in the country. This would likely involve an institution such as the Institute of Agricultural Economics of the Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food, of the Cyril and Methodius University linked with capacity building assistance from an international institution. Any models or data which are developed using public money should be available for use by other institutions.
General Recommendations In addition to specific recommendations for the sectors outlined above, the following recommendations arise from this study as “no regrets” options for analytical capacity to evaluate the impacts of climate change and develop adaptation measures: 1.
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Macro-Economic Model. A macro-economic model capable of providing consistent longterm price and quantity forecasts such as a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model should be developed for the country. However, it is important that the model be able to address national development issues, specifically by requiring that the “entry points” into each sector can realistically represent impacts that are related to the country’s development plans and the impacts of climate change. These models can be developed through contracts with multilateral and bilateral institutions, involving international and regional