| Assessing the Economic Impact of Climate Change – National Case Studies |
iii. Stand management models (and support data) for forests that include growth models to simulate the impacts of climate change and forest disturbances on the growth of managed forest types. iv. A dynamic, two sector model of the agriculture and forest sector, for example through integration with EUFASOM.
Major Recommendations 1.
Macro-Economic Model. A macro model capable of providing consistent long-term price and quantity forecasts such as a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model should be developed for the country. However, it is important that the model be able to address national development issues, specifically by requiring that the “entry points” into each sector can realistically represent impacts that are related to the country’s development plans and the impacts of climate change. These models can be developed through contracts with multi- and bi-lateral institutions, involving international and regional centres of expertise in this field.
2. Foster cross sector collaboration to develop models, tools and resources that will improve the understanding of the economic, environmental, and operational implications of climate change. It is recommended that the physical impact models and related integrated environmental-economic assessment models for the country are developed over a period of five to ten years in line with the identified priorities. The models and tools should be able to address national development issues, specifically by requiring that the “entry points” into each sector can realistically represent impacts that are related to the country’s development plans and the impacts of climate change. These models can be developed through contracts with multi- and bi-lateral institutions, involving international and regional centres of expertise in this field 3. Data collection efforts should be fostered and coordinated with models development. The case studies revealed data deficiencies in all of the sectors. In addition, an effort to assess the impacts of climate change in forestry and health sectors failed due to a lack of reliable data. The building of new data bases where old ones have collapsed is going on in many sectors, and this information is also helpful for better management of these sectors regardless of climate change. It is also recommended that data collection efforts by the government and model development efforts be coordinated.
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4. Local expertise to conduct climate change economic impact assessments on its own should be built in the future. Developing the capacity to build and implement models that can be useful for planning and managing natural resources and estimating the physical and economic impacts of climate change should focus on the long-run development of human capital in the country. One way to try to ensure that the capacity is transferred is through training for national experts and collaboration with relevant national institutions in sector-related fields with modelling centres of excellence throughout the EU backed by multi- and bilateral funding.