The base case scenario
The accelerated progress scenario
The base case scenario implies continuity with historical patterns (including development policies pursued in recent decades). However, the model’s complex dynamics—including a wide range of nonlinear relationships—provide a structure that can also generate nonlinear future patterns that differ considerably from historical trajectories.
Under the accelerated progress scenario, resources and policy ambition increase substantially compared with the base case. Table A2 lists choices and targets for appropriate (aggressive but reasonable) magnitudes of intervention in poverty reduction, infrastructure and governance, among others. Changes are relative to the underlying values for each country in the base case scenario and therefore take into account different national starting points and patterns.
Table A2 Targets for appropriate magnitudes of intervention, relative to the base case scenario Policy area
Over 10 years
Over 20 years
• Doubling of lending by international financial institutions • Foreign aid donations from developed countries increased to at least 0.5% of GDP
• 30% increase in foreign direct investment • 50% increase in portfolio investment flows • 20% increase in expenditure on research and development • 50% increase in migration
Over 30 years
Over 40 years
• 20% improvement in infrastructure • Universal access to an improved source of water and sanitation (after having been halved from 1990 levels by 2015) • Universal access to mobile telephone and broadband service
• 50% increase in renewable energy production
Global level Poverty reduction
Infrastructurea
• Rural population living more than 2 kilometres from an all-season road reduced by half or to below 10% (whichever comes first) • Universal access to electricity • Elimination of solid fuels as the primary source for heating and cooking in the home
Governanceb
• Corruption reduced and governance effectiveness and regulatory quality increased globally to one standard error above typical values for each country’s GDP per capita • Measures of democracy and gender empowerment increased to one standard error above typical values for each country’s GDP per capita
Regional and domestic levelsc
• For developing countries: 20% increase • 30% decrease in corruption on the in health spending, 20% improvement in Transparency International scale governance effectiveness on the World Bank scale, 20% increase in economic freedom on Fraser Institute scale, and 0.2% increase in technologically based productivity growth
• Probability of internal conflict reduced to 0 • 10% increase (about 3 percentage points of GDP) in government revenue in non–Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries
a. Includes transportation, energy, water and sanitation, and information and communication technology. The global targets are a combination of normative targets (such as aspirational targets from the Millennium Development Goals) and, considering the possibility of goal fulfilment by all countries, 97.5% level of truly universal goals. b. Governance is conceptualized in three dimensions—security, capacity and inclusion. The security dimension is operationalized with two generally complementary measures of the probability of domestic conflict and of the vulnerability to conflict. The capacity dimension is operationalized as the governments’ ability to mobilize revenue (up to 30% of GDP) and to use it effectively (looking especially to lower levels of corruption). The inclusion dimension is operationalized as the democratic character of institutions and also as broader inclusiveness, as represented by the Human Development Report’s Gender Empowerment Measure. c. Regional specific targets are available in Pardee Center for International Futures (2013).
202
| Human Development Report 2013