1.1 Mapping the climate change and governance challenge The big picture Alyson Warhurst1
In which parts of the world are the twin challenges of responding to the impact of climate change and improving governance systems most imminent? The maps presented here explore some of the interrelationships between climate change and corruption. Specifically, they reveal how global risks combine in some countries and suggest that policy responses must consider all the risks at stake and their interrelatedness, rather than look at climate change in isolation. This analysis is crucial, as corruption can undermine efforts to combat the impacts of climate change. Global climate models predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme hydro-meteorological events, 97 per cent of which occur in developing countries. These events, combined with changing temperature and rainfall patterns, could lead to associated changes in water availability and quality. Agricultural practices are also at risk from climate change as a result of soil erosion and floodrelated human displacement, as well as changes in yields, the suitability of certain crops and the distribution of pests. Figure 1.1 shows how these global risks are not only interlinked but conflate to undermine development gains, particularly in Africa and low- and middle-income countries elsewhere. These interdependencies mean that the ineffective mitigation of climate change and its impacts will make the world more vulnerable to other risks,
GLOBAL_CORRUPTION_CS4.indb 16
3/15/2011 9:42:02 AM