Oakland Airport Connector Options Analysis Analysis of the Options
Table 15 Rapid Bus
August 2010
FTA Cost-Effectiveness Index
Full BRT $3 Fare
$3 Fare
Net incremental annualized costs (millions) Incremental annual ridership Cost per incremental ride
AGT
AGT
AGT
AGT
$3 Fare
$6 Fare
$3 Fare
$6 Fare
(FEIR/FEIS 2002)
(FEIR/FEIS 2002)
(est. current)
(est. current)
$3.48
$10.23
$24.49
$21.36
$43.97
$40.84
510,000
645,000
645,000
397,500
645,000
397,500
$6.83
$15.86
$37.97
$53.74
$68.17
$102.74
Table 15 shows that Rapid Bus has the lowest cost per incremental ride at $6.83, and Full BRT is twice that figure, at $15.86. Using the 2002 FEIR/FEIS capital costs of $204 million, the incremental cost per passenger for AGT is $37.97 with a $3 fare, more than twice the figure for the Full BRT option. While the $6 fare for AGT lowers the net incremental annualized costs, the resulting lower ridership yields an incremental cost per ride of $53.74, which is more than three times the incremental cost per ride as for Full BRT. When the measure is recalculated using estimated annualized capital costs for the current project, the incremental cost per passenger increases to $68.17 with a $3 fare and $102.74 with the planning fare of $6.
JOB CREATION The existing economic climate has placed a significant emphasis on job creation. The airport connection generates both short‐term construction jobs as well as long‐term jobs through service operations. Temporary construction jobs can be estimated using the methodology developed by the President’s Council of Economic Advisors (17) and used for the TIGER grant process. This method estimates one job‐year per $92,000 of construction spending, which includes direct, indirect, and induced employment. The methodology provides no distinction in local versus national jobs, types of jobs or type of construction needed for the project. BART is currently estimating jobs for the AGT option on a much finer level. Providing an analysis using the macro‐level estimation methodology would not provide additional insight into the options, and has been excluded from this analysis. Permanent operations jobs for Rapid Bus and Full BRT are calculated based on the average ratio of bus operators to total employees at AC Transit, Golden Gate Transit, SamTrans, San Francisco Muni, and VTA, based on the 2008 National Transit Database. This ratio is 1.56. It was assumed that each bus in operation required 4.2 operator full‐time equivalents (FTEs), with 3.0 FTEs required to provide weekday service and 1.2 FTEs required to provide weekend service. With 7 buses in service, the number of permanent operations jobs is estimated to be 46. AirBART provides half the level of service as Rapid Bus. AirBART was estimated to require 23 FTE’s, half of Rapid Bus’s figure of 46 FTE’s. AGT is estimated to require approximately 27 operations jobs, according to a presentation to the BART Board of Directors on December 10, 2009 (7).
Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
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