PRSRT STD U.S. Postage PAID Permit No. 55 Thousand Oaks, CA
960 S. Westlake Blvd. #10 Westlake Village, CA 91361
CaDRE#01078771
Tim Freund REAL ESTATE ADVISOR
(805) 427-3008 www.1000 OaksRealEstate.com Tim@1000 OaksRealEstate.com www.TheRealEstateConversation. com
Each Engel & Völkers office is independently owned and operated. If your home is currently listed with another broker, this is not a solicitation as it is not our intention to solicits another broker’s listing.
Greetings Happy Holidays! If you’re like me you’re about ready for some normal craziness, holiday craziness. With things in the world so off the rails, I hope that all of you keep your friends and family close and take the time to enjoy one another. As the year winds down, I can tell you that the real estate market is as unpredictable as ever. Prices are still buoyed by lack of inventory. This has held at bay pricing pressures brought on by the lack of affordability and high rates. In spite of this turmoil, we sold $30M in real estate in 2023 and helped 25 families find or sell a home. When asked where I sold this year, I say from LA City to the foothills of the San Gabriel Mountains; from the San Fernando Valley to the Conejo Valley; from Hermosa Beach to the beaches of Oxnard.
In other words, we will go wherever you need us and we do so with pride since you’ve not just placed your trust in us to help you and your friends but you asked us to help your kids! Lots to go over in this the 52nd issue of The County Line Gazette, so enjoy and happy holidays. • Market Update: Trying to See Around the Corner • Baby Boomer’s Corner: Multigenerational Housing • In The News: Who Pays The Buyer’s Agent Commission? • Coming Soon and Recently Sold • Cool People Tim
N
County Line Gazette Volume www.1000OaksRealEstate.com
Tim@1000OaksRealEstate.com
Market Update Trying to see around the corner I am often asked about the future and like to joke that my crystal ball is a little foggy. Even though I joke, I’m actually quite adept at predicting trends in the market. This is largely because I track the numbers very closely. So let’s talk numbers… Currently there are 224 homes available for sale in the Conejo Valley. By contrast, there were 255 in 2022, 135 in 2021 and 256 in 2020 and 404 in 2019. We know th4 market was on fire going into 2022. Going into 2023, rates had already spiked and we were feeling the acute affordability issue but then, lo and behold, the market took off for another hot spring. Since then, we’re seen rates drive even higher and then come back down with easing inflation numbers. Yet, while the number of sales has dropped dramatically, prices have only come down a little. Depending on to whom you chose to listen, it appears the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady until the economy contracts further at which time they will be compelled to cut them. If rates drop into the 6%’s, I predict the market will bounce around with prices staying relatively flat. That could come as early as spring 2024. It’s an election year and, with conflicts
Number 52 www.TheRealEstateConversation.com
across the globe, “unpredictable” is the best prediction However, if rates should drop into the 5%’s, watch out because rates will somehow go up. There’s plenty of demand, just not affordability nor available inventory. Allow me to share a couple recent examples. In September, I closed my listing in Shadow Hills (east SFV). The Actors and Writers strike meant fewer buyers so we had to come down quite a bit in price. I also had a Millennial buyer referral (my parentclients referred their child - is there a greater compliment?) purchase a modest home in Wildwood that was on multiple offers. And, we got $25K off and nearly $30K in seller concessions for repairs; I knew the seller’s agent well, which helped. So, prices are softer… in some cases. I also just wrote an offer for ‘over asking’ on a one-story with a large lot in a mid-1960’s neighborhood near Los Robles hospital, due to multiple offers. We lost out to an all-cash offer. In this case I again had a huge advantage knowing the seller’s agent but the cost to finance exceeded my buyer’s ability to qualify. So the direction of the market isn’t entirely clear. But I think it’s safe to say that no matter how you slice it, homes will sell in 2024 and people will move and the only question you have to ask is, ‘if you’ll be one of those people, who are you going to trust to help you?’ n
Testimonials We have known Tim for 20+ years and during this time have bought and sold several homes through him. Tim is very knowledgeable about the real estate market and stays current with what is going on. Tim is a consummate professional and is always available to help in anyway needed. Highly recommend Tim for your real estate needs. – D&L. Padhi Being a nomad family, my wife and I are certainly used to dealing with real estate professionals across multiple states. In this regard, Tim has been the best realtor we’ve came across and had the
pleasure work with to date. His in depth knowledge of the market, his network of capable contractors, his team of assistants, and his overall understanding of the process has allowed us to achieve the best possible outcome on our return of investment for our former property in Thousand Oaks. His timing of the market and general understanding of price drivers were impeccable given that he foresaw and alerted us to the most recent FED interest rate raises which panned out to be a hugely important factor in our ability to attract multiple offers. Tim’s demeanor and character are nothing short of great and he is always attuned to his costumer’s needs. – G. Lima
Baby Boomer Corner
Coming Soon
Multigenerational Housing is something we are hearing discussed more often. I have Baby Boomer (b. 1946-1964) and Gen X clients (b. 1965-80) looking to buy homes that can accommodate their Silent Generation (b. 1925-45) or early Boomer parents (b. 1945-50). I also hear some Boomer clients say they want a place for their adult children to live. In previous Gazette issues, I have discussed ADU’s (Accessory Dwelling Units) also known as Granny Flats. What’s interesting about ADU’s is that they serve many purposes and from an investment perspective, they really make the numbers work. What do I mean?
• 13 Birchwood Ave., Oak Park $1,275,000
From the “many use” perspective, if you build one on your lot it can accommodate an aging parent or your adult child. It can also be for you when you age and you can let the kids have the main house. As an investment, they generate fantastic cash flow. And ADU in Thousand Oaks for example, can earn as much as $2,400/mo in rental income. If it costs $130,000 to build and you can conservatively rent it for $2,200, the ADU pays for itself in 5 years ($2,200 x 12= $26,400 x 5= $132,000). Said another way, that $130K investment returns 20% annually… “Now we’re cooking with gas!”
• 1446 Calle Yucca, Lynn Ranch $1,449,000
Recently Sold • 10600 Wheatland Ave. Shadow Hills $1,520,000
• 31753 Kentfield Ct. Westlake Village $1,475,000
• 1711 Crescent Heights Blvd. Los Angeles $1,385,000 • 3302 Storm Cloud Thousand Oaks $825,000
Moreover, as with any new demand, an industry is born. Some companies specialize in designing, permitting and building ADU’s. It easier than ever to build an ADU and the types of structures can vary widely. A company making fully-built /fully-furnished “Container Homes” for as little as $80,000 plus foundation, utility set up and permits recently contacted me. Great for AirBnB investments. There’s another company is called Boxabl.com, that literally drops a finished, manufactured home on your lot that unfolds like a box! This is not anything like a mobile home; you just need a lot large enough. And new laws even allow you to sell the ADU as a condo! So, is it time to buy a one story with a larger lot? Call me! n
• 3108 Ferncrest Pl Thousand Oaks $1,060,000 • 1564 Applefield St. Thousand Oaks $1,159,000 • 5540 5th St #73 Oxnard Shores $586,900
In the News:
Cool People and Interesting Ideas
Who Pays the Commission?
I am regularly asked for a recommendation for a moving business.
There’s been a lot of news about lawsuits involving the major real estate brokerages and the National Association of Realtors colluding to drive up commissions. The backstory is that 500,000 Missouri sellers sued brokerages stating that they were overcharged and shouldn’t have been responsible for the buyer’s agent’s commission. Of course, none of them complained when they bought their home that their seller paid the commission. This begs the question, who really pays? The answer is actually fairly obvious when you think about it: the buyer pays by virtue of a higher price. True, the seller “pays” by compensating his agent who then shares the commission with the buyer’s agent. This is disbursed from sale proceeds as part of the closing costs… at a higher price. Buyers are just being allowed to finance it and then, when they sell down the road, they recompense it as sellers. Their buyer pays the higher price. With affordability so high, the idea that, somehow, buyers would be able to pay their agent’s commission out of pocket means the barrier to homeownership grows even greater. The benefits of the existing system include that there are immediate tax deductions for the seller. The buyer doesn’t have to come up with the cash to hire representation and, perhaps most importantly, the seller sets the rate as an incentive to the buyer-agent that has a well-qualified home shopper. Who’s going to tell a seller that they can’t incentivize someone to bring them a buyer? Going forward it’s unlikely much will change, though it is possible at some point the buyers will have to pay their agent’s fee and, in doing so, will want a lower price to cover the cost or ask the seller to help pay for it which pretty much gets us back where we are today. n
Movers are very difficult to refer. Not to be cliché, but damage during a move is almost inevitable. That said, I have two movers that are, in my experience, worth calling when the time comes. The first is NMS Moving, a local Atlas Van Lines company. Joe Giarraputo and team are amazing. They have moved clients of mine to North Carolina, Georgia, Arkansas and Colorado and back. They also handle local moves. I have yet to hear anything but glowing reviews about this family-run business. You can reach Joe at (805) 577-1929 or the office at (805) 526-0404. Another exciting mover is Clutter.com. This is an LA based startup – think of them as a new, tech company-based mover. Log on, tell them how many rooms, if you need storage or packing services, where and when you want to move, and they quote you and book you directly. It’s that easy. So far, I have had two moves with this company and both reviews have been stellar. Naturally, a move usually means that someone has bought, sold or both. It’s my hope this holiday season that when it comes time for you or someone you care about to buy or sell real estate, you will call me. The opportunity to help you is a privilege and I never forget that. Thank you. n On another note, click on this QR code! We are using digital storybooks to target your specific buyer through Facebook and Google. Have a horse property or great school district? We’ll get your home in front of the right audience. Tim
Tim Freund REAL ESTATE ADVISOR
(805) 427-3008 www.1000OaksRealEstate.com Tim@1000OaksRealEstate.com 960 S. Westlake Blvd. #10, Westlake Village, CA 91361 CaDRE#01078771
TIM FREUND FINE ESTATES AND HOMES