2018 NORTHERN COLORADO Real Estate Market Update
Q3
Steady as she goes! Q3 brought smooth sailing for Northern Colorado housing market Nationally, the third quarter brought us a topsy-turvy stock market and the beginnings of a stormy political campaign season. But here in Northern Colorado, our ship of real estate continued to hold an even keel between July and the end of September. Home sales statistics for the latest quarter show that overall transaction numbers and inventory totals maintained a steady course in the third quarter, and average sales prices – while still growing – are rising at a modest clip compared to last year.
3 percent – to 1,893. Average prices increased 5.5 percent to $393,220, down from the growth rate of 8.9 percent the year before. As a further sign of price moderation in the region, we see that the average sale price actually declined by 1.7 percent from the second quarter ($399,909) to the third quarter.
Across the region, the number of sales totaled 3,027, down slightly – 2.3 percent – from the third quarter of 2017. Similarly, housing inventory slipped a little –
THIS CHART COMPARES AVERAGE THIRD QUARTER SALES PRICES FOR EACH LOCAL SUB-MARKET FROM 2016 TO 2018 Q3 Q3 % CHANGE Q3 2018 % CHANGE 2016 2017 (‘16-’17) 2018 (‘16-’17)
SUB-MARKET Fort Collins
$378,301
$407,754
Timnath
$575,639 $588,918 2.30% $627,365 6.53%
Wellington
$304,284 $312,342 2.65% $347,531 11.26%
Greeley/Evans
$255,067 $281,111 10.21% $302,758 7.70%
Loveland/Berthoud
$350,089 $383,829 9.64% $403,037 5.00%
Windsor/Severance
$394,682 $442,084
12.01%
Estes Park
$393,874
7.03%
Ault/Eaton/Kersey/Milliken/ Johnstown/LaSalle/Mead TOTALS
$324,556 $357,055 10.01% $370,320
$421,573
7.78%
$420,879
3.21%
$441,061 -0.23% $468,076
11.03% 3.71%
$341,926 $372,485 8.94% $393,220 5.56%
Source: IRES
At a glance | employment Northern Colorado is among the most robust regions in the country for job growth. The Greeley metro area (Weld County) leads the way locally and is No. 5 nationally for job growth percentage the last five years. The Fort Collins-Loveland area (Larimer County) is No. 11. The chart below reflects five-year (2013-2018) and one-year (2017-2018) growth rates for Boulder, Larimer and Weld counties. NUMBER OF JOBS EMPLOYMENT 2013, 2017, 2018
130,000
140,000
150,000
LARIMER COUNTY WELD COUNTY 132,744 BOULDER COUNTY Source: Colorado Department of Labor & Employment. Note: Figures are not seasonally adjusted. THE GROUP, INC. REAL ESTATE | Q3 2018
160,000
170,000
180,000
161,908 167,617
200,000
195,413 199,865
166,832 156,519
190,000
5-YEAR CHANGE
+2.3% +19.8% +3.4% +21.9%
185,863
188,210
+1.3% +12.3%
1-YEAR CHANGE
Here’s a closer look at how third quarter sales in each of the local sub-markets compared to the same quarter in 2017:
Fort Collins-Wellington-Timnath
Fort Collins and the surrounding area saw total transactions slipped by 9.6 percent to 1,017, due in part to a loss of inventory, which declined 3.1 percent to 649. Demand held strong, as reflected by a 7.7 percent increase in average prices to $428,366. Focusing on each individual community, we see that Timnath showed the strongest growth in the number of transactions, with total sales nearly doubling from 36 to 66. Wellington sales took an opposite turn, with the volume dropping by more than half from 186 to 82. Fort Collins sales were down just 3.8 percent.
Greeley-Evans
Just like the Fort Collins area, prices for the Greeley-Evans market increased 7.7 percent to $302,758 for the quarter. It was also the only sub-market in the region to witness a gain in inventory, up 2.2 percent to 275. Total transactions were also up 3.4 percent to 634.
RESIDENTIAL INVENTORY JANUARY 1-SEPTEMBER 30 (5-YEAR HISTORY) FORT COLLINS WELLINGTON / TIMNATH 3536 3422
3824
3660
3038
2956
3989
3862
3076
2970
BUILDING PERMITS JULY 1 - SEPT 30 FORT COLLINS
99
318
WELLINGTON
25 ’14
’15
’16
Homes Listed
’17
’18
5 TIMNATH
Homes Sold
38 LOVELAND / BERTHOUD
2038 1590
’14
2220
2165
1722
1643
’15
’16
Homes Listed
2438
2267
1852
1722
’17
’18
Homes Sold
98
Single-Family
Multi-Family
LOVELAND
45
250
Single-Family
Multi-Family
Loveland-Berthoud
Inventory dropped slightly, off 2 percent to 390, while total transactions slipped 3.9 percent to 588. Average prices surpassed the $400,000 threshold, increasing 5 percent to $403,037.
Windsor-Severance
Based on year-over-year growth, Windsor-Severance was the most active market in the area, with a 15.6 percent increase in transactions to 356. Average prices actually declined – albeit a scant 0.2 percent – to $441,061, and the inventory of 339 homes equaled the yearago quarter.
Ault-Eaton-Johnstown-KerseyLaSalle-Mead-Milliken
GREELEY AREA 3343
3385
3296
3086
3264
2660
2672
2596
2551
2603
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
Homes Listed
Homes Sold
24
844
Estes Park
601
12
Single-Family
154
’14
1083
1149
666
763
783
’15
’16
’17
902
Homes Listed
1512 1099
’18
Multi-Family
WINDSOR
WINDSOR / SEVERANCE
This collection of outlying Weld County towns experienced a small decline in sales, down 1.7 percent to 343. Inventory took a dip of 15.4 percent, while average prices increased 3.7 percent to $370,320. Average sale prices in the Estes Valley jumped 11 percent to $468,076. Transactions were off 4.3 percent to 89, and inventory fell 6.9 percent to 81.
GREELEY
4
SEVERANCE
100
0
Homes Sold Single-Family
Multi-Family
THE GROUP, INC. REAL ESTATE | Q3 2018
Vacancy rates The residential vacancy rates have been extremely low in our area causing escalating rents. As several new apartment projects were completed in 2017 we have seen a bump in the vacancy rates.
Vacancy rates have remained low in nearly every sector of the commercial market. The increase in demand for land and office space, coupled with the low vacancy rate for retail space point to a healthy overall market for commercial real estate.
APARTMENT VACANCY RATES
COMMERCIAL VACANCY RATES
FORT COLLINS AREA
FORT COLLINS AREA
4.1% 3.7% 3.2%
INDUSTRIAL RETAIL OFFICE
2.3% 5.0% 4.2%
INDUSTRIAL RETAIL OFFICE
3.2% 3.2% 8.4%
3.2% 3.6% 9.5%
4.0% 3.2% 8.0%
INDUSTRIAL RETAIL OFFICE
2.6% 4.6% 3.8%
GREELEY AREA 3.0% 4.9% 3.6%
3.1% 5.2% 3.4%
2.7% 4.5% 8.4%
GREELEY/WELD AREA 3.6% 1.4% 3.8%
Q3 2017
4.0% 4.6% 5.1%
LOVELAND AREA
LOVELAND AREA
Q2* 2018
2.4% 5.1% 4.9%
LONGMONT AREA
Q3 2016 INDUSTRIAL RETAIL OFFICE
*Q3 Information not available at time of printing
3.5% 6.7% 11.4%
Q3 2018
3.7% 6.9% 10.1%
4.0% 7.7% 10.3%
Q3 2017
Q3 2016
MORTGAGE RATES
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3.81%
3.46%
4.63%
SEPT 2018
SEPT 2017
SEPT 2016
Source: freddiemac.com