Maritime CEO Issue Four 2020

Page 1

ISSUE FOUR 2020

BY

Digital liner leader

Eli Glickman and the transformation of ZIM



MANIFEST

3 At The Prow

Profiles

Economy 4 US 5 EU 6 China 8 India 9 Brazil

23 Cover Story ZIM 25 Scorpio 27 Tiger 29 Orange Marine 30 Shipmanagement special 33 Heidmar 35 N2 Tankers

Markets

Recreation

11 Dry Bulk 13 Tankers 15 Containers 17 Finance

36 Wine 37 Gadgets 38 Books 39 Travel

Executive Debate

Opinion

18 Offshore wind’s potential

41 Kris Kosmala 42 Neville Smith 43 Dallas Smith 44 MarPoll

39



AT THE PROW

An ASM publication Editorial Director: Sam Chambers sam@asiashippingmedia.com Associate Editor: Jason Jiang jason@asiashippingmedia.com Correspondents: Athens: Ionnis Nikolaou Bogota: Richard McColl Cairo: Camelia Ewiss Cape Town: Joe Cunliffe Dubai: Yousra Shaikh Genoa: Nicola Capuzzo Hong Kong: Alfred Romann London: Paul Collins New York: Suzanne Smith Oslo: Hans Thaulow San Francisco: Donal Scully Shanghai: Colin Quek Singapore: Grant Rowles Sydney: Ross White-Chinnery Taipei: David Green Tokyo: Masanori Kikuchi Contributors: Nick Berriff, Andrew CraigBennett, Paul French, Chris Garman, Lars Jensen, Jeffrey Landsberg, Dagfinn Lunde, Mike Meade, Peter Sand, Neville Smith, Eytan Uliel Editorial material should be sent to sam@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to 24 Route de Fuilla, Sahorre, 66360, France Commercial Director: Grant Rowles grant@asiashippingmedia.com Maritime ceo advertising agents are also based in Japan, Korea, Scandinavia and Greece — to contact a local agent email grant@asiashippingmedia.com for details MEDIA KITS ARE AVAILABLE TO DOWNLOAD AT: www.asiashippingmedia.com All commercial material should be sent to grant@asiashippingmedia.com or mailed to 30 Cecil Street, #19-08 Prudential Tower Singapore 049712 Design: Mixa Liu Printers: Allion Printing, Hong Kong Subscriptions: A $120 subscription is charged for 2020’s four issues of Maritime ceo magazine. Email sales@asiashippingmedia.com for subscription enquiries. Copyright © Asia Shipping Media (ASM) 2020 www.asiashippingmedia.com

Seafarers deserve a better package

W

e all talk about how the world might emerge from Covid-19 as a nicer place, how those who have worked so hard to ensure our lives can carry on ought to be rewarded. In shipping, of course, this would mean reviewing how we treat seafarers, the men and women who have worked tirelessly all year to deliver goods, working well beyond their contracts stipulate, often at great expense to their own mental wellbeing. I was genuinely heartened then to hear recently that top management at Columbia Shipmanagement (CSM) has come good on a promise to lead shipping to review how it handles benefits for its employees at sea, an overlooked part of the industry for decades. Claiming an industry first this November, CSM debuted ColumbiaCrewCare, a benefits package which offers seafarers life insurance and an investment plan for medical costs, disability provision, pension planning, or house/car purchase – all from a starting cost of €1 per day. “When it comes to caring about our seafarers, we wanted to demonstrate real commitment and walking the walk as opposed to just talking about care,” commented Norman

Schmiedl, group director of crewing at CSM. “Crew need to no longer feel invisible. Their welfare is very much in our sights and our number one focus,” said Mark O’Neil, president and CEO of CSM, who has also just been elected of president of InterManager. Speaking with Splash TV in May O’Neil highlighted how important it was that shipping reviewed its benefits packages – or the lack thereof – for seafarers. “It’s time for the employers within the shipping industry to look at the benefits which they afford their crews. The crews have been at the forefront of this Covid-19 battle. It is now time to look again at the whole question of crew benefits. Is a crewmember, an able bodied seaman entitled to the most basic health insurance, life insurance, disability insurance, pension provisions?” O’Neil mused in a shipmanagement special episode of the TV series.

Crew need to no longer feel invisible

It’s a great, worthy initiative from O’Neil and CSM. Who will be bold enough to follow? ●

Although every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained in this review is correct, the publishers accept no liability for any inaccuracies or omissions that may occur. All rights reserved. No part of the publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the copyright owner. For reprints of specific articles contact grant@ asiashippingmedia.com Twitter: @Splash_247 LinkedIn: Maritime CEO Forum Facebook: Splash Maritime & Offshore News

ISSUE FOUR 2020

3


ECONOMY US

Enter Team Biden What a new administration means for the global economy

E

ven if President Trump is looking like he’ll fight to the end – i.e. next January – arguing he won the election nobody else much agrees with him. Global markets responded instantly and strongly to the election of Joe Biden and the Democrats even with the president throwing out baseless allegations about the election. The stock market, it seems, is welcoming Team Biden. But though the markets like the idea of better stability and more rational decision making under Biden, a hopeful lessening of erratic trade tensions and a more coherent policy regarding the Covid-19 pandemic emitting from Washington, it’s not clear that they will ultimately endorse all elements of the Biden economic plan. Biden’s initial economic team certainly seems more grounded in experience and intellectual rigour than the handlers of the American economy for the last four years. Many issues will be hard fought and we do not know quite where the chips will fall. For instance, it is no secret that there are huge differences within the Democratic Party on questions of wealth taxes and antitrust regulations. However, Covid-19 times mean extraordinary measures. The US Imports from China (and elsewhere by comparison), 2019 Source country

$bn growth/ decline

Major Growth in Imports from Vietnam

+17.5

Mexico

+12.0

Taiwan

+8.5

Major decline in imports from Saudi Arabia

-10.6

Venezuela

-11.2

China

-87.4

Source: US Census Bureau

4

initial Biden economy team seem to accept that America will have to put together a massive stimulus programme along western European lines to make good on Biden’s promise to “build back better” and kick-start the country’s energy transition. Before Covid hit, the American economy was showing distinct signs of slowdown. Of course, the pandemic has accelerated that process significantly. Consumer spending did uptick in the summer, but it is now depressed again. With unemployment growing rapidly it seems only more stimulus can reboot the consumer economy in the new year. Biden will have to fight the Republican party and many of his own on the size and implementation of that package. Republicans will undoubtedly use the size of the budget deficit – approximately 15% of national output this year – as an excuse for blocking Biden’s stimulus package. The Federal Reserve (which doesn’t have to wait while political gridlock in the Senate and Congress dominate) is expected to ramp up its quantitative easing programme

before Christmas that will pump money into the economy. Still, this may be offset by larger than ever unemployment roles and welfare claims at a time when any tax rises will not be popular as people struggle to live with, or hopefully by then, recover from the pandemic. We should remember that unemployment growth is really a factor of the pandemic and was not growing significantly before last spring. Real incomes were growing too. How much of this was hangover from the Obama years and how much Trump’s active economic policy is debatable but it was the case that the last three years before Covid weren’t bad economically for America. Lastly, though Biden may not be the globalist Clinton was, it seems likely that he will not be as openly protectionist against or as hostile to China as Trump was. Still, elements of prioritising American business and taking a tough stance with Beijing on state-subsidised industries and the theft of American intellectual property rights are likely to mean a gentle thaw in relations rather than any serious warming up. ● maritime ceo


ECONOMY EUROPE

Avoiding double dip Europe ought to look to Germany for leadership to get out of the pandemic crisis

T

he EU remains largely concerned with suppressing the pandemic with most of the major EU economies, including the UK, France and Germany, in various forms of lockdown for much of the final quarter. The pandemic has also meant that constructive Brexit talks have largely collapsed and the blame game now underway between Brussels and London indicates that No Deal seems likely even with talks of last minute dealings as the deadline approaches and also the newly floated concept of BINO (Brexit in Name Only) that has Remainers in the UK somewhat excited but is unlikely to get past the UK’s vocal pro-Brexit groups. Brussels has rethought its timeline for economic recovery given the ferocity of the second wave of the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns and the European Commission is now projecting a return to pre-pandemic economic growth within two years. The commission now forecasts a contraction of 7.4% in the whole EU economy this year, unchanged from its previous Main Trading Partners for Goods – EU-ex-UK, 2019 Destination

% share of total

USA

18

UK

15

China

9

Switzerland

7

Russia

4

Turkey

3

Japan

3

Rest of World

41

Total Source: EU Commission

ISSUE FOUR 2020

100

forecast, but has downgraded its expectation for the recovery in 2021 by two percentage points from the 6.1% expansion it forecast in May, to 4.1%. With repeated lockdowns across the bloc retail sales have taken a hit – down at least 2%, which is a very conservative estimate from the commission. Belgium, France and the Netherlands all saw falls in consumer spending by over 5%, so quite how the commission got to the 2% figure is a little unclear. Germany did manage to maintain growth in industrial orders over the summer, but only of 0.5%. The bloc’s big economic losers are predicted to be Spain, Italy and Croatia with industrial output collapsing in all three. France and Germany have taken hits but are expected to recover fastest. Ireland is seemingly the least affected nation in the EU economically – partly due to the large role of agriculture in the Irish economy which is less susceptible to slowdown than retail sales, services or manufacturing. The EU is still negotiating a final deal on its €750bn recovery fund which is not

expected to start disbursing money to stricken economies until later this year. Anyone looking for positive signs could look at German exports, which climbed above expectation in September. Some, including the Financial Times, saw this continued strength as a sign that Germany could avoid a double dip contraction and lead the way for other countries in the bloc. Finally, we can’t not consider the change in US-EU relations with the election of Joe Biden as the next [resident of the United States. Immediately it would seem that the threat of US tariffs on European automotives should disappear and, it is hoped, Washington-Brussels relations will improve. Of course, Biden will enter the White House to start seriously rebalancing relations with the EU just as the UK leaves the bloc formally. Concern in the UK, where prime minister Johnson was seen as a keen supporter and ally of Trump, is growing that the UK will be at the back of the queue. Biden is known to not look favourably on Brexit. ●

5


ECONOMY CHINA

Trade spats proliferate The People’s Republic is getting into some serious fights with key trading partners

T

he author LP Hartley once wrote, “The past is a foreign country: they do things differently there.” It’s a phrase that seems to suit China in 2020. The last 20 to 30 years has been characterised by a China that was keen to trade, ‘the world’s factory’, welcoming to investment – protective but basically open. That is no longer the case. The twin issues of deteriorating US-China relations as well as the coronavirus pandemic have made China appear significantly more inward looking. Spats with Trump, Huawei issues in Europe and elsewhere, fights with India… China is in an increasingly unfriendly place diplomatically. However, China was first into the coronavirus epidemic and appears to be the first to exit the pandemic in many ways from reopening cinemas to getting ports up and open again. At time of going to press Covid-19 appears to remain largely under control in China. The PRC’s economy is now entering a V-shaped, post-Covid recovery, led by strong domestic demand. US-China relations remain tense and are likely to worsen as China digs in and America remains in electoral rhetoric to the end of the year. However, Australian Barley Exports to China & Other Major Destinations in Contrast, 2019 Destination China

Tonnes 4,204,000

Saudi Arabia

710,000

Japan

702,000

UAE

28.1

Kuwait

212,000

South Korea

51,000

Source: Australian Export Grains Council

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the political problems between Washington DC and Beijing, while raucous, appear not to have had any significant impact on China’s economy or its investment environment at the moment. China is now partly reaping the benefit of successfully having rebalanced its economy from being dependent on inward investment and manufacturing exports to one of domestic consumption. It seems likely that consumer spending will remain softer than usual until the middle of next year at the earliest. On a relative basis China is likely to remain the world’s best consumer story. Some encouraging top line numbers include auto sales being up 16.4% year-on-year in July with Japanese carmakers doing exceptionally well. Residential property sales also continued their strong recovery. Indeed, July was the fastest yearon-year growth rate over the last 24 months. Both these numbers would indicate that the wealthy and middle class segments of Chinese urban society at least still feel positive. The Beijing government is bullish that the Chinese economy can grow this year. Chinese Premier Li

There will be a significant decline in shipments from Australia to China until at least Q2 2021

Keqiang reported that the economy grew 3.2% year-on-year in the second quarter of the year, despite the severe coronavirus lockdown measures. China has stepped up stimulus payment but not to the extent seen in 2008. However, the old problem of China’s rather unreliable and sometimes politically inflated statistics is high at the moment. Xinhua, the state news agency, has claimed that employment rates have remained stable despite Covid-19 and lockdown. Yet, non-state journalists and anecdotal evidence indicates that many SMEs have indeed closed and unemployment has grown significantly which may mean that the government has to up its welfare payments to ensure social stability. Something it has been reticent to do in the past but may now be unavoidable. ● maritime ceo



ECONOMY INDIA

Shaking off the pandemic After a long lockdown the nation’s economy is waking up

I

ndia’s economy seems to be rapidly shaking off the adverse effects of the coronavirus pandemic. in October manufacturing activity rose to the highest level in 13 years while the IHS Markit India purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing increased to 58.9 in October from 56.8 in the previous month. It also seems that, after the world’s biggest lockdown, consumer confidence and expenditure is returning - demand for mobile phones, home appliances and cars surged after the prolonged slump. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures, remained subdued as seen by a modest increase in input costs and only a marginal increase in selling prices. This is a much faster and bigger recovery than most analysts expected from India, including the government. The International India: Major Export Destinations, 2019 Destination % of India’s total exports Rest of world

62.4

USA

15.9

UAE

9.1

China

5.1

Source: Indian Government

8

Monetary Fund had in its October World Economic Outlook projected that India’s economy would contract by 10.3% this fiscal along with other Asian nations, except China which is expected to post a 1.9% growth. What the final figure will be is not quite clear but it should confidently be good news for the country. Government supporters would say this all points to the success of atmanirbharta, or the inward turn which rejects the two core principles of the post-1991 consensus: Exportorientation on the macro-economic side and steady liberalisation on the trade side. Exports also seem to be down but far from out. According to the Commerce and Industry Ministry in New Delhi, India’s merchandise exports in October 2020 were $24.82bn, as compared to $26.23bn in October 2019, showing a fall of 5.4% – a drop, but not a crash in these ‘new normal’ times. Petroleum products, gems and jewellery, leather, and engineering goods all saw a fall in exports but rice, oil meals, iron ore, oil seeds, carpet, pharmaceuticals, spices, cotton and chemicals all surged despite the global pandemic. The Federation of Indian Export Organisations

(FIEO) president Sharad Kumar Saraf told the Indian press that the nominal decline in exports was mainly because of a huge container shortage and hike in sea freight, which upset exports, particularly for those who have negotiated on CIF (Cost, Insurance, Freight) or C&F (Cost and Freight) basis. Economic growth will please the Modi government who were heavily criticised by economists unimpressed by India’s $9.94bn fiscal stimulus package announced in the late summer, - “underwhelming” was the consensus opinion. Arguably New Delhi had little more to give, the government couldn’t increase stimulus without worsening the nation’s fiscal deficit. A fall in tax receipts and consumer GST income will also adversely affect that deficit. Most importantly consumer spending will not pick up without further stimulus. Jahangir Aziz, head of emerging markets economics at JPMorgan, told the newspapers that what India needs right now is income support so that when the infection becomes more manageable and restrictions are lifted, consumers and businesses would have the financial stability to borrow and invest. ● maritime ceo


ECONOMY BRAZIL

Covid and Brazil’s lost decade Latin America’s largest country will struggle to pay for the pandemic

R

oberto Campos Neto, president of Brazil’s central bank, had gloomy news for analysts and the nation in early November. Brazil is already of course hit very hard by coronavirus and so his first dose of bad news was that the Brazilian economy is likely to shrink by 4% this year due to the Covidrelated hit to the economy. But the second announcement more directly hit Brazilians – there will be no further financial help for those worst affected. To be quite clear economy minister Paulo Guedes announced that this year’s economic emergency measures will end on December 31. What will follow will be a massive wave of fiscal consolidation. It also seems unlikely that another interest rate cut will occur. With unemployment rates running historically high and many families dependent on the government aid package 2021 will be a hard start for Brazil. Consequently market sentiment and all confidence indicators are pretty depressed. Even those who advocate a continuance Brazil’s Major Export Categories, 2019 Category

$bn

Minerals and oils

30.3

Oil seed, fruits and grains

1.4

Mineral ores

1.4

Meat and meat products

1.4

Machinery

0.7

Iron and Steel

0.6

Cars and trucks

0.6

Sugar

5.3

Coffee

4.9

Source: Brazilian Government

ISSUE FOUR 2020

- indeed in some cases a ramping up - of the stimulus package have no concrete ideas where the money will come from or who will pay. At best it appears that year-end GDP decline will be in the region of 5%. In strictly financial terms Brazil is not well positioned to weather the Covid crisis – especially with still rising rates. Brazil’s debt and deficit are among the highest of any emerging nation and extra debt burden arising from Covid – on top of that already accrued – could be structurally devastating. According to Credit Suisse, the Brazilian government’s fiscal support for the economy this year exceeds 8%of GDP, again one of the highest in the emerging world and more than many developed nations. The best the government is offering is a new welfare program entitled Renda Cidada to be available next year, which will merge with the current Bolsa Familia programme that costs approximately Rs35bn ($6.47bn) a year. How this will be funded without the government exceeding its own spending cap fiscal rule is unclear.

Unsurprisingly consumer confidence indicators for right now and projecting into next year look extremely weak. Guilherme Mello, an economics professor at the University of Campinas in Sao Paulo, told Reuters, “The economy doesn’t have the engines to drive it forward. GDP per capita is back where it was in 2010, meaning we have literally had a lost decade. The level of GDP will only get back to pre-crisis levels in 2023.” If there is a bright spot for Brazil then it is exports. The World Bank notes highly successful growth in exports of agricultural products, such as frozen beef and soybeans. The former jumped from $464m a month in April 2020 to $639m in May and kept on growing through the summer. Brazil’s soybean monthly exports grew even more sharply, by more than $1bn in a year-on-year basis in April 2020. It’s not the case for all sectors though – coffee has seen stagnant exports this year so far but soybean and meat demand – especially from China, appear to be looking robust into the new year. ●

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MARKETS DRY BULK

Handysize fleet growth particularly low Jeffrey Landsberg from Commodore Research has some handy advice for investors

A

t the start of the year, we forecast that at the very least 415 new dry bulk vessels would be delivered which would mark a second consecutive year-on-year increase in dry bulk newbuilding deliveries. Quite significant is that last year marked the very first time since 2011 that dry bulk newbuilding delivery volume increased on a year-on-year basis -- and this year will now mark a second consecutive increase. The first 10 months of this year have seen approximately 410 new dry bulk vessels delivered to the market. In comparison, last year saw delivery of approximately 400 newbuildings. Fleet growth has remained an issue that has continued to most negatively affect the panamax and handymax markets, and the growth has been most notable when there have been temporary lulls in spot cargo volume in these segments. Significant is that during the first 10 months of this year, the panamax fleet grew by a net addition of 127 vessels (138 newbuildings were delivered while only 11 panamax vessels were scrapped). During the same 10-month period, the handymax fleet

ISSUE FOUR 2020

grew by a net addition of 101 vessels (124 newbuildings were delivered while only 23 handymax vessels were scrapped). Most recently in October, the panamax fleet grew by a net addition of five vessels while the handymax fleet also grew by a net addition of five vessels. These totals are smaller than have been seen in months past, but still moderate growth has continued in these segments. Fleet growth has remained much lower in the capesize and handysize fleets. However, the trajectory of the capesize and handysize segments has been much different from one another in recent months as the capesize spot market, at times, has had to contend with a relative lull in Brazilian spot iron ore cargo volume along with China’s ban on Australian coal imports. The handysize market, though, has stayed relatively unaffected from these two issues. In total, the first 10 months of this year have seen the capesize fleet grow by a net addition of only 46 vessels (90 newbuildings were delivered and 44 capes were scrapped). During the same period, the handysize fleet has grown by a net addition

of just 20 vessels (54 newbuildings were delivered and 34 handysize vessels were scrapped). Most recently in October, the capesize fleet grew by a net addition of two vessels while the handysize fleet grew by a net addition of three vessels. While fleet growth has remained relatively low in both the capesize and handysize fleets recently, the handysize market has not had to contend with the same issues that that the capesize fleet has had to contend with. This has allowed handysize rates to remain at relatively strong levels despite these vessels’ much lower carrying-capacity compared with the rest of the segments. Going forward, the handysize market is poised to continue to fare well compared with the rest of the dry bulk segments. Handysize fleet growth is set to stay low, and this sector on its own is not at all subject to the whims of the volatile spot iron ore trade and China’s ban on Australian coal imports. ●

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MARKETS TANKERS

Geopolitics or market fundamentals? What’s really driving tankers to such extremes? BIMCO’s Peter Sand thinks he has the answer

T

o say that this year has been unpredictable would be an understatement, but the fact that for much of 2020 freight rates have taken little to no notice of the poor market fundamentals leads one to question whether or not fundamentals are still relevant and important to understanding the tanker shipping market. The past 12 months have shown just how important geopolitics are for the tanker shipping market. Twice freight rates have been sent soaring on the back of changes, not of changes to the fundamental market balance, but rather due to political posturing. On the whole from 1 September 2019 to 31 August 2020, average earnings for a VLCC stand at $70,000 per day, with noticeable peaks at$307,888 per day on October 11 2019 and$279,259 per day on March 13 this year. Though October 2019 to many now feels like an eternity away, tanker owners are unlikely to have

ISSUE FOUR 2020

forgotten the spike that was brought to freight markets by amongst other things US sanctions on certain shipping companies and tankers, as well as the high tensions in the Middle East at the time. Though the world was in a different situation in March 2020, it was once again political decisions that led to the second spike in tanker freight rates, as the oil price war broke out after the expanded OPEC+ alliance was unable to reach an agreement on supply cuts, leading to demand for oil and therefore tanker shipping being brought forward. So, is the fundamental market balance still important? At BIMCO we believe it is. While geopolitics will continue to play an important factor, the fundamentals will kick in between these flare-ups, which will certainly still occur, but less frequently and likely having a more limited effect than the two we have seen in the past 13 months. This could already be seen in early

September when freight rates for a VLCC fell to $6,103 per day, as the lower demand sets it. BIMCO expects the freight market to remain challenging for the tanker shipping industry for the next 12 to 15 months, as demand will only return to pre-pandemic levels slowly. In its latest report, the EIA estimates that global oil demand in 2021 will remain 1.8m barrels per day lower than in 2019. The oil price war also brought a lot of oil demand forward, bunching it up in the second quarter of the year, and leaving lower levels left for the rest of the year, as stocks built up then are now being drawn on. These expectations are based on the fundamentals in the market, a fall in demand while the fleet continues to grow (as of 1 September +2-5% for the crude oil tanker fleet and +2.1% for the oil product tanker fleet), means freight rates will fall. Could geopolitics once again swoop in and lift rates? Probably, but it is unlikely to have as dominating a role as it has in the past year. The world is in a different situation and with the US election in November we may once again see geopolitics return to the shadows where it has less of an effect on oil tanker shipping. â—?

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MARKETS CONTAINERS

Are rates really record high yet? Lars Jensen from SeaIntelligence Consulting explains how we got to such a peak and where we might be headed in 2021

A

growth quite simply continued to nyone following the conoutpace even the rapid insertion of tainer spot index rates will extra loaders. This caused rates to know that we are seeing surge even higher. new records broken every week. This Finally, in the third stage, where trend started on the transpacific in the market is now, the surge in June and has since gradually spread demand combined with the atypical to many other container trades trade imbalances causes bottleneck globally. problems, with equipment availaIn essence the development is bility being a key issue. This caused a three-stage whammy. In the first spot rates to surge even further. stage container demand started Looking at the data for spot picking up much earlier than rates in, for example, the SCFI index expected. This was at a point in time clearly shows the increase – and as where the carriers blanked large can be seen in the figure, the spike in amounts of capacity in response to spot rates matches fairly well what the actual downturn in demand in we saw in the aftermath of the finanthe early phases of the pandemic. cial crisis in 2009-2010. At this point in time there was little The figure shows a re-calcuconfidence that consumer demand lated index of both SCFI spot rates would actually come back as rapidly as well as the global rate index from as it did given the severity of the Container Trade Statistics (CTS). impact on the economy as a whole. CTS data includes both spot and Consequently, the larger demand contract rates. To make a straight in combination with the blanked comparison, both indices has been capacity pushed rates upwards. re-calculated so they each have an In the second stage, container index value of 100 for the full average volumes began to truly surge. Carriers no longer had blank sailings, over the period 2009-2020. CTS rate rapidly index SCFI spot index There are two key developments but were instead deployJan-09 65.1 which should be noticed. ing extra loaders. But the demand

Index (average 2009-2020 = 100)

Feb-09 62.4 Mar-09 55.8 61.1 Apr-09 May-09 59.8 Jun-09 59.8 Jul-09 70.4 250 Aug-09 85.0 200 Sep-09 99.6 150 Oct-09 103.6 100 Nov-09 110.3 Dec-0950 115.6 Jan-10 0 134.2 Feb-10 150.1 Mar-10 151.4 Apr-10 150.1 May-10 148.8 Jun-10 151.4 Jul-10 154.1 Aug-10 152.8 Sep-10 ISSUE FOUR146.1 2020 Oct-10 140.8 Nov-10 132.8 Dec-10 126.2

81.5

Index rate development 96.6 91.1 Spot versus total market 89.5 116.5 165.0 194.8 125.4 105.9 106.0 119.6 140.4 137.2 134.1 CTS rate index 144.2 155.9 158.4 152.9 141.4 132.7 121.1 111.2

SCFI spot index

In 2009-2010 the spike in spot rates was followed by a slightly smaller spike in CTS but four to five months later. The drop in oil prices in 20152016 caused spot rates to plummet but only caused the overall CTS rate index to decline slightly to a lower baseline level. Hence what will happen with contract rates in 2021? Will we see spot rates revert back to the stable baseline of the CTS contract rates as in 2015-16 or will we see a coming spike in contract rates as we did in 2009-2010? If the extremely strong demand surge continues, and hence the bottleneck issues also prevail, then we might well see a repeat of 2009-2010, and as such a surge in contract rates in the coming months. However, if demand abates slightly and the equipment situation gets under control, we would be much more likely to see a situation where the spot rates would come off their extremely high levels. Contract rates might still increase somewhat, but likely more to the levels seen prior to the oil price collapse in 2015-16. â—?

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MARKETS FINANCE

The year ahead Dagfinn Lunde digs out his crystal ball

A

s is customary at this time of the year the editor asks me for my take on key themes in ship finance that readers ought to be aware of in 2021. By and large, I see the trends that have been coalescing through ship finance over the past five years or so continuing next year. Big banks will further withdraw from shipping and other smaller industries. Make no mistake, banks are in big trouble, slashing staff across the world. The banking industry is in transition and has to focus on survival - shipping is too small fry for most of them. As in previous years, some smaller banks based in places such as Norway, Germany, Cyprus and Greece will up their game in shipping in the coming year, albeit they are starting from a very small base and with limited capacity. Refinancing is now being done at far lower levels - 50% max with pricing far higher than owners are used to. They will have to get used to that next year.

ISSUE FOUR 2020

There is and will be absolutely no interest in the equity markets. Shares are so undervalued at the moment. I loved the quote the other day from Flex LNG’s Oeystein Moksheim Kalleklev who pointed out that his ships are considerably cheaper on the stock exchange in Oslo and New York than at the newbuilding yards (P/B ~0.45x). US-listed shipowners’ market cap this year has slid from around $30bn to duck below $20bn. Shipping as a whole is so inconsequential on Wall Street as brilliantly highlighted from this recent slide from Danish Ship Finance and it is not attractively green enough yet. Here’s the funny thing though. Despite the negativity at the start of this article, I genuinely think we’re at the start of a rather strong cycle, not a 2003 Chinese super cycle I grant you, but something that will see solid earnings in 2021 and 2022 based on the ongoing very limited orderbook. There’s almost no contracting for ships these days - no one knows what

Shipping as a whole is so inconsequential on Wall Street

to order and two words - stranded and assets - haunt owners like never before. Regulatory uncertainty is keeping a lid on newbuilds, making today’s fleet more valuable and likely working towards their full technical lifespans. Next year, there will be a strong post-Covid stimulus programme enacted in most major economies, which will drive the markets. I can’t see demand lasting too long however - the deleterious effects of this pandemic on government coffers and the public’s wallet will have to come to roost at some point. It will be a miracle if we get back to end-2019 demand levels by the end of 2021. One final point, this is shipping and making any predictions - especially after the crazy, topsy-turvy year we’ve just endured - are nigh on impossible. Let’s check in this time in 12 months to see how well I did. ●

17


EXECUTIVE IN PROFILE DEBATE

Why shipowners are eyeing offshore wind It’s the nascent segment exciting many in shipping. The fundamentals of offshore wind installation and maintenance do look very hopeful for willing investors

S

ome of the biggest names in shipping from Andreas SohmenPao, the Swire family, Emanuele Lauro and Robert Bugbee are turning their focus to the offshore wind farm installation game, a sector that has roared into prominence this year with governments the world over making very bold commitments to harness the power of wind for their energy needs. The rapid growth in interest in this nascent segment from the shipping industry has also seen Splash launch a dedicated offshore wind section on its site. Canny shipowners such as Lauro have spotted a potential gap in a lucrative new market. The world may not have enough

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heavylift vessels to service the offshore wind industry post-2025, according to a new report from Oslobased Rystad Energy. Offshore wind is booming, and as turbine and project sizes grow, demand for specialised installation vessels will soar. The market for vessels capable of installing large offshore wind components is quickly being outpaced by growing demand from the global development pipeline, new Rystad Energy analysis shows. The global fleet will be insufficient to meet demand after 2025, opening room for more specialised vessel orders and other oil and gas heavylift vessel conversions. When translating the volume of offshore wind projects into vessel

Installation vessel demand will be four to five times higher than today’s figure by 2030

years for installation scopes, Rystad estimates that the demand for foundation and turbine installations in 2020 is approximately eight and 13 years respectively. On the supply side of the equation, there are currently 32 active turbine installation vessels with another five on order while there are 14 dedicated foundation installation vessels in operation today with another five on order. For the past few years, this has effectively resulted in a relatively oversupplied market, especially maritime ceo


EXECUTIVE IN PROFILE DEBATE

in Europe. However, the scale is expected to tip towards an undersupply of installation vessels by the mid-2020s. With more offshore wind projects down the line, Rystad expects installation vessel demand will be four to five times higher than today’s figure by 2030. For the purposes of this analysis China and intertidal wind farms, mainly in Vietnam, were excluded. China is predominantly making use of its local value chain, with little participation from foreign suppliers. Intertidal farms drive limited vessel demand. The Rystad study shows there are currently only four vessels capable of handling the next generation of turbines, such as GE’s Haliade-X 12-MW,

ISSUE FOUR 2020

which is expected to be commercial in 2021. As technology advances and future-generation wind turbines will get even bigger, the existing fleet of vessels is not likely to have enough capacity to install them. “We identify the heavylift vessel segment as the key bottleneck for offshore wind development from the middle of this decade, and the need for next generation vessels may slow the cost reductions expected in offshore wind,” commented Alexander Fløtre, Rystad’s product manager for offshore wind. In 2005, the average offshore turbine had a capacity of 3 megawatts (MW); projects expected to start up in 2022 now have an average turbine size of 6.1 MW. Moreover, as the cost efficiencies gained from using larger turbines are becoming an increasingly important driver of commerciality, Rystad expects new projects will favour larger turbines over the smaller equipment seen in most offshore wind farms to date. Many of the existing vessels have astonishing lifting capacities, inherited from their original purpose; installing and decommissioning large oil and gas platforms. These large lifting capacities are definitely a key strength to be leveraged but will have little significance if efficiencies – meaning vessel days per installed component – are not able to stay competitive. Most offshore wind projects require the transit and accurate positioning of installation vessels at least 100 to 300 times in quick succession. After turbine and foundation manufacturing, the installation phase is the most capital-intensive development process, consuming about 20% to 30% of total capital expenditures. For a 1 GW project comprised of 100 turbines, this could add up to $800m to $1bn, from which about 15-20% and 8-10% is earmarked for foundation and turbine installation costs, respectively. Across the global fleet of installation vessels that Rystad tracks, the company has observed an average installation speed of 3-4 days per

The need for next generation vessels may slow the cost reductions expected in offshore wind

vessel per monopile. In contrast, the duration of turbine installation varies more widely at anywhere between 2-5 days, mainly due to the expected weather implications when lifting blades and hub components above significant heights in windy areas. When it comes to hoisting heavy equipment over 100 m from the water line, installation vessels must be able to carry out the job in a safe and precise manner. Offshore crane capacity, lifting height, and ample deck space are just some of the main competitive factors these units offer, and continue to evolve. Between 2000-2010, the offshore wind market’s slow growth and relatively light equipment (2-4 MW turbines) posed no real challenge to the existing fleet. Yet in 2014-2015 turbine sizes began to increase substantially, especially in Europe, and with them the need for larger crane capacities and lifting height. Early players in the vessel market were able to anticipate this shift and optimise fleets to serve these larger projects. Nevertheless, it is evident that competitive features that were considered high-spec only three years ago are already outdated. “Looking ahead, vessels will have to serve the initial construction phase of projects, in addition to maintaining and periodically replacing the active base of equipment. The segment that will succeed in serving the future needs of the offshore wind industry will be able to offer this valuable synergy to support a healthy fleet utilisation,” Fløtre concluded. Huge offshore wind projects are being discussed around the world, with the European Union earmarking nearly $1trn for the sector through to 2050 and the UK claiming recently that every British household will be powered by offshore wind within just 10 years. ●

19


IN PROFILE

Mark O’Neil p.30

Graham Porter p.27

In profile this issue Maritime CEO’s 17 correspondents around the world have been in touch with many of the world’s top shipowners. Highlights are carried over the next 17 pages

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maritime ceo


IN PROFILE

Didier Dillard p.29

Pankaj Khanna p.33

Bjorn Hojgaard p.30

Angad Banga Eli Glickman

p.30

p.22

Peter Cremers

Emanuele Lauro

p.30

p.25

Madhu Vadakkepat p.35

ISSUE FOUR 2020

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IN PROFILE

The transformation of ZIM Eli Glickman is presiding of a remarkable change in fortunes at Israel’s leading liner

T

he Teams video launches, Eli Glickman, ZIM president and CEO, hoves into view and peels off his mask to reveal a grin from ear to ear. Maritime CEO is calling the Haifa headquarters of the world’s 10th largest containerline on a momentous day when ZIM unveiled

22

record quarterly results, further proof of the dramatic transition of the Israeli carrier in the three years since Glickman took the reins. ZIM notched up a record net profit of $144.4m in the third quarter, a year-on-year improvement of 2,818%. Perhaps more impressively

for an industry that has traditionally struggled with paper thin margins, ZIM reported an EBITDA of 25.9% for the three-month period. “ZIM is one of the smallest among the big 12 global liners, but we have begun to show we are number one in EBITDA margins by maritime ceo


COVER STORY

Size is no longer important. It’s important to be different, to be innovative

far,” Glickman tells Maritime CEO, going on to predict his company’s Q4 results will be even better. “We are among the smallest, it is not that easy, but we are surprising from the back,” Glickman says. This underdog narrative is one that appeals to Glickman. ZIM likes to market itself as nimble, asset light and close to customer needs - and

ISSUE FOUR 2020

Our digital differentiation is beginning

there are clear signs this attitude is paying off. Witness, for instance, the marketing of its e-commerce branded services this year, high speed sailings from China to Amazon-buying centres in America and Australia. “This is just the beginning, our digital differentiation is beginning. Our new tools we’ve created in the last two years are going to make a huge difference,” Glickman says. ZIM’s focus on growing its e-commerce shipment business recently entered a new chapter. The carrier signed a strategic cooperation agreement earlier this year with Alibaba.com for the direct purchase of sea freight, improving logistic services to sellers on China’s largest e-commerce giant. As with a number of other carriers, 2020 has seen ZIM debut its own online instant spot booking system, eZ Quote. ZIM’s high-tech offerings have also seen it branch out with a new revenue stream, recently debuting ZKCyberStar, a cyber security consulting company created in partnership with Tel Aviv-based Konfidas. Earlier this year ZIM also detailed a new artificial intelligence-based screening software it has created to detect and identify incidents of misdeclared hazardous cargo, something it is keen to licence to its peers. It has also been leading the way in developing e-bills of lading for the shipping industry. Other gaps in the market have been exploited this year such as a new service from Mexico to Tampa in Florida. ZIM noticed a shortage of alternatives for moving cargoes from Mexico to the US and pounced. In another landmark moment for ZIM, and indeed the reshaping of ties in the Middle East, ZIM has just started calling at Jebel Ali port in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Previously the Israeli carrier avoided all Arab ports of call.

There’s also the reefer side of the business where ZIM stands out. The Israeli carrier has the youngest reefer fleet in the world, and its monitoring system, ZIM Monitor, has gained widespread plaudits. The asset light model continues with Glickman saying he has no plans to order any new ships soon. However, unlike most of his competitors, one key asset Glickman has not let go of at all during the pandemic is his staff, something he’s justifiably proud about. Prior to joining ZIM three years ago, Glickman held a number of roles at a local utility company, including VP of customer services. He took this experience to liner shipping, combing digital services with human resources. “ZIM is considered today to have the best customer service in the world,” Glickman claims, adding: “We did not fire or furlough anyone in the company despite the roll out of digital tools and coronavirus.” Another difference with many other liners, ZIM received no state aid this year. “We don’t want that. This shows the strengths of the new ZIM,” the containerline boss says, as he gathers his team for an imminent initial public offering. “We are strong enough today to not be a company under stress . We are trying to create the new container shipping future - the leader - size is no longer important. It’s important to be different, to be innovative,” concludes Glickman. ●

Spot on

ZIM Israeli carrier, ranks number 10 in the global liner rankings. Plans for an IPO imminently.

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IN PROFILE

Wind blows bulkers away Scorpio is back, ruffling the markets

O

nce again Scorpio is the talk of the markets this quarter. The decision to exit dry bulk in favour of wind installation has elicited enormous comment and conjecture and set the pulses of S&P brokers racing. In August Emanuele Lauro-led Scorpio Bulkers signed a letter of intent with South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) to construct a wind turbine installation vessel. The vessel will cost around $265m-$290m and is scheduled for delivery in 2023, and Scorpio also has options for an additional three vessels. Starting in October, Scorpio kicked off a rapid dry bulk fleet clear-out, selling eight ships in one month and making clear it intends to completely exit the sector. Lauro tells Maritime CEO the decision to pivot from dry bulk was taken as dry bulk was a sector it could not dominate, unlike wind installation or the product tanker sector where it has led consolidation in recent years. “It is dramatic,” Lauro concedes of the switch. However, this was a decision taken after nearly two years of deliberation where Scorpio looked at all manner of renewable diversification before latterly deciding on offshore wind. “In 2018 we did not think of Scorpio Bulkers as the right place for a renewables play, but as time developed we were seeing the lack of interest from investors in dry bulk in general and the lack of volume in the stocks,” Lauro recounts. The Italian tells Maritime CEO all bulk carriers will now be sold in a matter of months, not years,

ISSUE FOUR 2020

with plenty of interest from buyers coming in for both en bloc and single ship deals. Scorpio has faced criticism for selling out too cheap, something Lauro takes umbrage with. “Valuations are always fluctuating. Other transactions in the market are very comparable to what Scorpio is transacting,” he insists. Lauro says the new chapter for the group is to build an “industry leading position” in offshore wind installation. “We focused on the installation side because that is the only real segment in the business that is for sure going to experience a shortfall in supply come 2024 because the ships today cannot install the turbines being built for tomorrow,” Lauro explains. As for the tankers side of the business, Lauro says there’s no plans for a fleet sell-off there. “In tankers we are in different position to bulkers,” he says. “We’re the largest product tanker company

out there. The market attention to product tankers is different to dry bulk commodities like coal and we have been a consolidator in this market for the last few years and these are all features that in bulkers are not available to us.” Scorpio’s brief foray into the offshore business has come to an end with creditors taking all 10 platform supply vessels belonging to subsidiary Hermitage Offshore Services, while the company’s 11 crew vessels are to be sold to an unaffiliated third party. ●

Spot on

Scorpio Led by Emanuele Lauro and Robert Bugbee, the Monacoheadquartered firm is one of the largest product tanker owners in the world, and has this year axed its dry bulk division in favour of wind installation vessels.

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IN PROFILE

Graham Porter plots China’s hydrogen path When not busy developing his hotel in Provence, the Tiger boss is focusing on LNG and hydrogen power for his next fleet investments

G

raham Porter, the chairman of Tiger Group Investments, has used the pandemic to plot new paths for his company and for his family’s own pet projects. The ex-Seaspan head has invested heavily in developing his team to come up with a low CO2 strategy for his fleet and to help China move ahead with its own ambitious decarbonisation plans. President Xi Jinping has recently unveiled plans to peak China’s CO2 emissions by as early as 2030 and for the nation to become carbon neutral by 2060. Porter and his team at Tiger and subsidiary Greathorse are working to help with this transition. “We are looking to the future,” Porter says. “The current investment focus of the group is more on a low CO2 strategy, focusing on LNG and as a next step, hydrogen , in particular in the use in ship propulsion and distribution of same to market.” What Porter’s company is trying to develop is LNG tech that can then

Spot on

Tiger Group Investments Diverse shipping conglomerate with investments in tech as well as ships. Subsidiary Greathorse focuses on dry bulk predominantly while Tiger has significant containership portfolio.

ISSUE FOUR 2020

also be used with hydrogen later. Tiger has made made several investments related to this area and also on hydrogen distribution, and now has a large team at Greathorse’s offices in China working on developing its carbon strategy. “The leadership of China has made such a strong commitment to switch to clean fuels, on a much faster timeline than anyone expected,” Porter says, adding: “I fully expect China to become the clear world leader in clean fuels in this decade, greatly reducing its reliance on imported oil and coal. And one thing I have learned after 20 + years of working in China, is once the leadership and people of China have decided on a path, it is most likely going to happen despite all the foreign naysayers on the outside.” Porter highlights the leadership China has already assumed in industries such as solar, wind and batteries and is confident the same will be achieved in LNG and hydrogen. As for Porter’s other big project occupying his time during the pandemic, the shipowner is set to become a hotelier. Porter has spent most of the year in Provence in France, holed up in a little village where he and his wife are creating a five-star boutique hotel. “I kind of like confinement,” Porter says of France’s repeated lengthy lockdowns during the Covid19 crisis, “as I can focus on my hotel project in the village and I do not

China will become the clear world leader in clean fuels

have to do air travel.” Now he just needs the French government to ease lockdown in order to welcome his first guests next year. ●

27


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IN PROFILE

Connecting people via the ocean floor Orange Marine is eyeing the offshore wind sector to go alongside its existing telecommunications business

T

ogether, we take up the challenge to connect people across the seas and the oceans”. So reads the mission statement at Orange Marine, the submarine cable specialist of the French telecoms giant, Orange. In operation since the mid-nineteenth century, the submarine cable industry FCR – France Cables and Radio – became a 100% subsidiary of Orange Group in 1999. In 2010, Orange Marine bought out Elettra, a subsidiary of Telecom Italia. In the specialised world of cable ships, Orange Marine has a very strong position - its seven ships giving it a 15% market share. Its fleet consists of six cable ships and a survey vessel. A newbuild has just been commissioned as the company - like many in shipping - eye the potentially lucrative offshore wind sector. Orange Marine has contracted Colombo Dockyard and Vard to build its new cable ship. The new vessel will be the first cable ship of its generation specially designed for the maintenance of submarine cables, both fibre optic

Spot on

Orange Marine 100%-owned subsidiary of French telecoms giant Orange with seven ships trading and a newbuild just contracted in Sri Lanka.

ISSUE FOUR 2020

telecoms cables and inter-array power cables used in offshore windfarms. The ship, delivering in early 2023, will replace the Raymond Croze, launched in 1983, which has carried out more than 100 cable repairs, mostly in the Mediterranean, Black Sea and Red Sea. “We will have a new and high-performance tool, with a low environmental footprint, which will allow us to offer high-quality services for several decades to our customers, not only owners of submarine telecommunications cables but also operators of offshore wind farms,” says Didier Dillard, CEO of Orange Marine. The ship will feature a streamlined hull, Azipod marine propulsion thrusters and a hybrid energy management system based on fuel

production and electrical storage back-up using batteries. Dillard knows his business better than most. He’s been with Orange for the past 18 years. Previous employment included stints with Sprint Communications while his career started out at sea in the later 1980s working on cable ships owned by France Telecom. “We believe that submarine cable owners deserve a modern and efficient fleet of maintenance cable ships given the ever growing sensitivity of the submarine cables network and this new vessel will also be capable to repair inter-array cables of offshore wind farms,” he says, looking at an artist’s impression of the sleek eco newbuild. “Objectively, I find her just very beautiful. Don’t you agree?” he asks. ●

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IN PROFILE

Shipmanagement’s future post-Covid Maritime CEO tuned in to Capital Link’s recent online Hong Kong event to get a feel for where the shipmanagement sector is headed next year and beyond

H

ow the shipmanagement industry is changing during and post-Covid dominated much of the discussion at Capital Link’s Hong Kong Maritime Forum on December 1. Peter Cremers, chairman of Anglo-Eastern Group, admitted that working from home had been “a bit

30

of an eyeopener” for him and senior management at the Hong Kong manager. “The biggest change has been the surprise that you can work from home,” Cremers said, adding the second big realisation was how much shipmanagement relies about going physically onboard ship. “Without

that it all falls down,” Cremers said, going on to explain how it had been

We are as an industry immensely capable of blaming events for our fundamental woes

maritime ceo


IN PROFILE

vital this year to transfer more responsibilities and decision making to crews. Angad Banga, chief operating officer at Caravel Group and Fleet Management, told the online event: “The world will be a different place coming out of the virus and we need to align ourselves with what it will be like, not the past.” Remote working will leap, even as coronavirus vaccines kick in, Banga said, suggesting that trend had fast forwarded by five years during 2020. Corporate travel would remain subdued for many years, he predicted. On a later panel, Mark O’Neil, president of Columbia Shipmanagement, discussed how shipping tends to blame external events for its own problems, something that needs to stop post-Covid. “We are as an industry immensely capable of blaming events for our fundamental woes,” he said citing the IMO 2020 sulphur cap and

Covid-19 as recent examples. Regarding coronavirus and its effects on his workforce, the Columbia boss insisted the morale of his crew has never been higher as Columbia has spent the last 10 months addressing issues that should have been identified a long time ago. O’Neil discussed the importance of communication during Covid-19, as well as addressing diets, mental health issues, tackling benefits packages, and offering free wifi. “We should look internally at ourselves, how we can collaborate more, how we can use Covid-19 as a catalyst to bring about good change,” O’Neil exhorted his fellow panellists. Speaking alongside O’Neil, Bjorn Hojgaard, CEO of Anglo-Eastern and chairman of the Hong Kong Shipowners Association used the Capital Link platform to lash out at governments for their failure to resolve the crew change crisis. “Covid-19 has shown that when it is crunch time governments cannot coordinate,” Hojgaard said.

“The reality is crew change has been possible after the first two months of lockdown at the start of the pandemic, it is just a question of how much money you want to throw at it, how many days deviation do you want to do?” the Anglo-Eastern boss said, going on to reveal that on average every managed ship in his fleet had to fork out an extra $30,000 this year for crew changes. “What damage this has done to the future of our industry in terms of being able to recruit the next generation of seafarers remains to be seen?” Hojgaard mused. ●

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IN PROFILE

Why now is the right time for tanker pools Pankaj Khanna makes the case for his new business

T

his November Pankaj Khanna, a key lieutenant of George Economou for many years, bought out the Greek shipping magnate’s tanker pool Heidmar. No price was revealed for the acquisition of one of the best known brands in the pools business, which has been in existence for the last 36 years. Since last year’s joint venture with Signal Maritime on aframax tankers, Heidmar has been quietly rebuilding the pooling and commercial management platform focusing on suezmaxes, VLCCs and LR2s, and now manages 15 tankers. Khanna founded Pioneer Marine in 2013, having previously been in c-suite roles with Alba, Excel, Dryships, Ocean Rig as well as serving seven years with Teekay. He quit Pioneer in May 2017. He turned 50 this year, his career having started at sea with Barber Ship Management, sailing for seven years before moving shoreside. Khanna is adamant that the increasingly complex regulatory demands facing shipping make the

Spot on

Heidmar One of the best known brands in the pools business, which has been in existence for the last 36 years. Fleet today numbers 15 tankers.

ISSUE FOUR 2020

future of pools a healthy prospect. Tanker pools have been making plenty of headlines of late. StoltNielsen and Essberger recently announced a new joint venture which will operate 48 units of between 2,800 dwt to 11,300 dwt while Odfjell and Navig8 have announced the launch of a new 12-unit MR pool. “It is becoming more and more difficult for a shipowner to run a small fleet due to stricter charterer requirements and regulations in general,” Khanna argues. “Decarbonisation and ESG responsibilities will make this even harder.” Consolidation in tankers will not just happen at the ownership level but through pooling it is happening at the commercial level, Khanna points out. Currently sitting on 15 ships, Khanna is aware he needs to get more ships onboard to make the

company deliver decent returns. “Pool management is not a high margin business and therefore scale is key,” he concedes, going on to predict that consolidation will be seen in the pools business too. As to his overall plans as to how he sees Heidmar developing, Khanna tells Maritime CEO: “My vision is to build a services platform that provides an investor / shipowner the option to invest in steel without the hassle of setting up an operation or dealing with a management team or to fill in the gaps that exist in their organisation. The money is theirs, the strategy is theirs, the timing of the investment is theirs and the execution is ours.” Expect to hear more from Khanna in the coming months, with other offerings, potentially technical management. For now though he says is “laser focused” on tanker commercial management. ●

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IN PROFILE

Tanker pools reemerge N2 Tankers has strong backers and is on a mission to tie up more aframaxes

T

here’s always a strong indication that markets are headed for difficult times when pools begin to gain traction. Tankers have been in the doldrums of late, and are forecast to have a tough winter and beyond hence pools developments are back making headlines. One pool firm determined to get its strong management credentials known to the market is N2 Tankers. The aframax specialist, with 14 tankers on its books, is a joint venture established by German owner Reederei Nord, Japanese owner Nissen Kaiun and Singapore shipmanager Synergy Group. Captain Madhu Vadakkepat, managing director of N2 Tankers, concedes the outlook for tanker earnings does not look very promising in the short term with production cuts, compounded by the global pandemic issues, making the supply-demand equation unfavourable for the owners. He is holding out however for an uptick post-Covid after the world gets vaccinated against the virus. Longer term, Vadakkepat can see the need for a correction on the supply side will be necessary to make tanker earnings more sustainable. Tanker owners today face a bewildering, challenging regulatory minefield, and this is where the N2

Spot on

N2 Tankers Aframax specialist pool, with 14 tankers on its books. A joint venture established by German owner Reederei Nord, Japanese owner Nissen Kaiun and Singapore shipmanager Synergy Group.

ISSUE FOUR 2020

Tankers team thinks it can help. “With the increased level of regulatory mandates looming on the horizon, such as ballast water treatment systems, carbon pricing and plans on low carbon fuels, the crude carrier market is indeed for some challenging as some of the nice to have things are now being seen as need to have, but I see this as an opportunity to many too,” Vadakkepat says. Vadakkepat says quarantine issues related to the Covid-19 virus is now a challenge for tanker pool operations, especially trading in east of Suez. “The regulations are not consistent, changing or varying from region to region or even from one port to

another. Therefore, the challenge of securing a voyage in conformance is something that we face during any fixture,” Vadakkepat explains. N2 Tankers is looking to secure partnerships with more shipowners to expand its aframax pool. “When it comes to profitability to owners, N2 Tankers operates on a cost plus model. In simple terms - if a vessel earns a dollar, almost a dollar is distributed to the respective vessel account, minus a lean running cost,” Vadakkepat explains. “Queries from like-minded owners have reached us as well. It would be exciting to develop this platform further with more partnerships going forward,” Vadakkepat concludes. ●

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REGULAR BOOKS WINE

Plumbing the depths for wine’s maritime connections The old man and the sea. Or Neville Smith on wine in a shipping magazine

W

ine and the sea have a long and close relationship. How could they not? The cross-Med amphorae business must have been one of the world’s first tramp trades. The relationship is not always a smooth one, from the press-ganged poor and the drunken sailor to the inebriated master running his ship aground on a misty morning. Some wine puts you in mind of the sea, some is best drunk with the waves in sight, some can even be reliably enjoyed after being exhumed from the deep. But for sheer weirdness there is little to match the work being done by Antonio Arrighi and Attilio Scienza. The two are on a mission to recreate a coveted sweet wine made on the Greek island of Chios two and a half centuries ago. The canny Greeks never passed down their methods but Scienza, a professor of viticulture at the University of Milan, believes the makers gave their grapes an edge with an immersion in sea water. Arrighi and his team sank 200

Two (more) to try IF CENTURIES-OLD, submerged champagne isn’t your thing but you fancy some wine from the coast, try Adnams Bourgogne Blanc (£65.94 www.adnams. co.uk); a fresh straightforward unoaked Macon made by Paul Talmard, smartly packaged and delivering lovely ripe stone-fruit.

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kg of grapes and left them underwater for five days. The fruit was then dried in the sun and fermented in amphorae. The pair found that the seawater stripped some of the bloom, meaning the fruit dried quickly, enabling its essential characteristics to be preserved. Subsequent analysis by scientists at the University of Pisa showed that the wine contained twice the amount of antioxidant phenols as a typical bottle of wine. The salt water had also acted as a preservative, meaning there would be no need to add sulphites, the real villain of many a hangover headache. Arrighi described the resulting wine (which had a year’s maturation) as “persistent, complex and prolonged, extremely sapid”. In context of today’s near-fetishisation of natural winemaking techniques, the pair’s product is pretty on-trend though a salt bath is still extreme. And there are plenty of winemakers for whom the future of wine must be unbound from its history and tradition. But in wine, the past is as Pieter H Walser is one of the trade’s foremost iconoclasts and sharing my dislike for most Sauvignon Blanc he makes the incredible barrel-fermented and aged Rabbitsfoot (POA https:// blankbottle. co.za/) which he immodestly but accurately describes as ‘awesome’. ●

Champagne will always win in the regatta of the ridiculous

ever-present as the sea. When the Vliegend Hert was wrecked on sandbanks in the Scheldt estuary in 1735, it was carrying wine that may have come from the Mosel region. Shifting sands hid the bottles until salvagers rediscovered the wreck in 1981, 18 m beneath the surface and intact. The verdict? Drinkable but not exactly improved by the experience. But for proof if it were needed, that champagne will always win in the regatta of the ridiculous, consider the bottle of 1907 Heidsieck ‘Diamant Bleu’ which went down with the cargoship Jönköping in 1916 and sold at auction in 1998 for $4,068. ● maritime ceo


GADGETS REGULAR

Apple chips

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pple has a new MacBook Air, MacBook Pro 13” and MacMini out. It’s an almost annual refresh: normally nothing special, but these boast Apple’s own M1 ARM system-on-a-chip instead of an Intel CPU, giving rise to grandiose claims of speed and efficiency gains. Whilst the ‘X times faster’ claims should probably be taken with a slight pinch of salt, the chip can shift and is pretty cool: so cool in fact, Apple ditched the fan in the MacBook Air. This sea change comes with caveats: external GPUs are out, as is Windows via Bootcamp (although Parallels has confirmed an M1 version of their Windows emulation). Finally the M1’s maximum RAM is 16 GB, which may be a problem for high-end users. MacBookAir, MacBook Pro 13”, Mac Mini $1,000–2,050, $1,300–2,300, $700–1,700 www.apple.com

Zen high sound

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eadphones for games have come on in leaps and bounds, but Sennheiser have re-entered the fray with the EPOS GSP 600 and EPOS GSP 550, 7.1 surround gaming headphones. The 600 series are closed headphones, meaning the only thing you’re going to hear is the game, while the 550 is open, which gives a richer, deeper sound arena but also means you can hear what’s going on behind you. The build quality is solid, not too hefty and very comfortable, and the microphone is surprisingly clear for an all-in-one headset. Although, given our past experiences of Sennheiser products, perhaps that should be ‘unsurprisingly clear’. EPOS Sennheiser GSP 600, GSP 550 $220, $250 www.eposaudio.com

Time’s money

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here are loads of new smart watches out there, and one thing they have in common is they are pretty chunky. Piaget are very much a traditional mechanical watch firm, and they’re taking it even further away from the realm of the smart watch by finally producing a commercial version of their super thin concept watch unveiled in 2018. The Altiplano Ultimate Concept’s cobalt alloy case is only 2mm thin, and is actually part of the movement and whilst it might not be a smart watch, it is a massively stylish and elegant watch. The watch can last up to 40 hours on a single winding. Piaget Altiplano Ultimate Concept $412,000 www.piaget.com

ISSUE FOUR 2020

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REGULAR BOOKS

Business in a time of pandemic Paul French leafs though a number of business tomes relating to Covid-19

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usiness writers have been working hard since the start of the year when it became increasingly obvious that the virus in Wuhan was likely to spread and epidemic would become pandemic. Of course many business sectors have been hit hard by the pandemic on every continent though, arguably, logistics and shipping have taken a special hit due to the very nature of the business being moving goods, commodities and people (crews) from place to place with a myriad of different rules, regulations, safety awareness and exposure to the virus. Geary Sikich started thinking about the economic aftershocks of viral spreads after the avian flu pandemic, estimating a pandemic could cost the US economy alone up to $675bn (in 2008). However, in Protecting Your Business in a Pandemic, Sikich reminds us that humanity has been through pandemics before and that disaster management and business continuity are areas we know quite a lot about. Sikich’s book offers readers a practical guide for assessing the threat of pandemics to their own organisations from initial

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response to practical and hands-on guidance in the form of evaluation and assessment tools, exercises, and detailed examples. Special tools include an easy-to-use roadmap for developing and maintaining a comprehensive business continuity plan. Robert Clarke’s Business Continuity and the Pandemic Threat was published more recently, in 2016, and is a primer in medical disaster management planning. Until Covid-19 it was considered the major study and guide on pandemic response. Looking at seasonal flu pandemics, zoonotic contagions such as Ebola, swine flu and avian flu as well as more Covid-like respiratory syndromes such as SARS and MERS Clarke looks at lessons learnt by business going back to the 1918-1919 Spanish flu pandemic as well as how multinational organisations such as the World Health Organisation (WHO), large national organisations, like the Centre for Disease Control (CDC), and national governments around the world can work together and co-ordinate. Looking to the (hopefully not too far) future Clarke also has a lot to say about the provision and

delivery of vaccines and antiviral medicines to ensure cross-border business can continue to operate even if some countries are faring better than others in suppressing viruses. Finally, the book that seems first out the gate in terms of distilling our business learnings so far from coronavirus – a collection of essays entitled The Business of Pandemics: The COVID-19 Story. From a business standpoint, there have been dramatic effects on logistics and supply chains, economic downfalls, bailouts of major industries and small businesses, and far-reaching calamities from around the world. Even though the Covid-19 story is still in its making, this book focuses on the business of pandemics as applied to Covid-19. Subject areas include topics everyone in logistics and shipping are thinking about right now including logistics and supply chain management challenges, how to conduct global business virtually and the likely global economic impact. Finally, there’s a long consideration of how the world will begin to seriously e-open markets and trans-national business. ●

maritime ceo


TRAVEL

Why Fukuoka ought to be on your travel plans next year Greg Atkinson, the founder of Eco Marine Power, has lived in this southern Japanese city for the past 10 years. He gives readers plenty of reasons to head there on their next trip out east

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ukuoka may not be one of the first destinations travellers think of when planning a trip to Japan, but its location, nestled between the ocean and the mountains, offers the visitor a chance to experience the best of Japanese culture both in an urban and natural environment. Additionally it is the ideal base from which to explore other regions in western Japan. Fukuoka is located in southwestern Japan on the island of Kyushu and has a population of just over 1.6m people. Although not nearly as large as Tokyo or Osaka, this lends itself to giving visitors a chance to experience the best of Japanese culture and food in a more relaxed atmosphere. The city is served by excellent transport links including an international airport, high speed rail network (i.e. the Shinkansen) and even a high speed ferry service to Busan in South Korea. Within a couple of hours or so you can also travel to a wide range of destinations including Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Himeji, Shin Onomichi, Kyoto and Osaka - meaning that day trips to these places are possible without the need to carry all your luggage with you. There are also highway buses connecting the city to numerous locations across Kyushu including the hot spring resort town of Beppu or you can travel up to Mount Aso - the largest active volcano in Japan. Within the city itself there are many places of interest ranging from the

ISSUE FOUR 2020

shopping district of Tenjin, including the large underground shopping complex known as Tenjin Chikagai, to the ruins of Fukuoka castle and the very scenic Ohori Koen (Ohori Park). Away from the city centre other places well worth visiting include the famous shrine Dazaifu Tenman-gū (pictured), and Yanagawa where you can board a traditional Japanese small boat and enjoy a trip along the canals. Other popular tourist destinations in and around Fukuoka include Canal City, Fukuoka Tower, the Kyushu National Museum (next to Dazaifu Tenman-gū), Marine World and the Nanzoin Temple. All these destinations are accessible by train or bus. While in Fukuoka be sure to experience the wonderful food available including Hakata tonkotsu ramen,

motsu nabe, yakitori and fresh seafood including squid and many types of fish. At night the city’s renowned yatai food stalls also open up near the Nakagawa river and these serve a wide variety of food including udon noodles and oden. Getting around is made easy because the city itself is fairly compact. You can travel from the airport for example to the main business and shopping districts within 15 minutes by subway and explore large parts of the city on foot or by taking advantage of the 100 yen Nishitetsu loop bus. Alternatively you can see many of the city’s main attractions by taking a Fukuoka open-top bus tour. So Fukuoka may not be the most well-known city in Japan, but it’s well worth visiting and you will be pleased that you did. ●

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OPINION

Shipping’s greentinted glasses Kris Kosmala on the future fuels debate

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nother week, another shipping story discussing ships of the future being powered by this or that fuel. Each wave of discussion is making shipping so brightly green, it hurts people’s eyes. The LNG-as-a-fuel circus has moved on to hydrogen and ammonia. On the edges of the conference circuit, biofuels and methanol still get mentioned, except not as a fuel of the future. Next week, it could be pixie dust. And once that dust settles, it is not even mentioned who will undertake and finance such ahuge fleet renewal, either by breaking down all today’s vessels and building anew or retrofitting the existing fleet. After all, who cares about details like those, when we have a planet to save? Speaking of the saveur du jour hydrogen retrofitting, are we finished yet with retrofitting the fleet with those magical green scrubbers that convert bad exhaust into even worse toxic poison pumped back into our oceans? The last time the shipping press wrote anything about scrubbers was when the conga lines of ships waiting to be fitted with that green-making magic stretched out into blue infinity. With hardly a peep about the scrubbers and a tidal wave of hydrogen-related articles, owners must feel like they are in a cosmic-sized vacuum, trying to get their bearings and figure out what will fuel their ships between the now and that future green ship of zero emissions. This is of course to assume that in this vacuum period no new pollution-related regulation emerges from IMO or any national environmental protection agency. Because that would mean more retrofitting grudges and more

ISSUE FOUR 2020

questions about the true end game in green shipping. With the ship fuel of the future discussion devoid of a pragmatic roadmap and a sense of finality, shipowners keep asking if a combination of engineering and information technology can assure the quality of today’s fuels and their impact on engine performance. Could the fuel/engine performance efficiency, ship bunkering strategies, and rapid detection of deviations/anomalies create a basis for a greener future here and now? Unfortunately, solving those three aspects is quite difficult, as today’s engineering and information technology found onboard ships and in fleet operation centres is as improvised and fragmented as the press discussion of the next “green” fuel. That doesn’t mean that owners don’t have any options to make their ships greener today. The following is a quick rundown of the fragments that exist today. With a bit of bother, they can be tied together and connected for the benefit of the owner and the broader green ship agenda. It is certain that with today’s fuel, engine efficiency performance has to be consistently assured for the owner to make any investments in green.

Next week, it could be pixie dust

Today, more precise performance measurements from autotuning engines fitted with better IoT sensors, flexible data collection technology, and onboard decision

making technology (yes, this is the application of artificial intelligence) influence fuel burn and energy savings. The loop is closed by the decision making system adjusting the engines electronically in lieu of making manual and infrequent adjustment by the engine room staff. The “what” gets burned is as important as the “how” it is burned. Continuous onboard fuel composition analysis allows the landside operations centres to implement greener strategies for ship refuelling and ship routing. Equipping the ship with automated direct mass measurement system which analyses fuel composition in each tank eliminates manual soundings, makes for precise fuel quantity/quality replenishment decisions and eliminates disputes about what and how much was put in the tanks at bunkering location. Each ship loaded up with cargo and bunker sails differently in different weather conditions and presents different resistance profile. Recently, much smarter information technology solutions have arrived in the market to use all that onboard data and third party data streams to plan and optimise bunkering decisions for greener sailing. Tying those engineering and information pieces today may be able to withstand whatever fuel transition the owners will need to make. In the meantime, shipping needs to control its own agenda with regard to ships of the future and ship propulsion of the future. Otherwise, it will be the regulators, charterers, and bankers who will decide a green agenda for the owners. That will force many unplanned decisions on scrapping the existing vessels, investments in greener newbuilds, and modifications to fleets and ship operating practices. The sulphur reduction debate has shown how owners’ indifference resulted in an insecure and uncertain future, not to mention a total lack of clarity of what green shipping must do. I hope owners are not waiting for the shipping conferences to restart before defining and lining up behind a clear shipowners’ green agenda. ●

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OPINION

Are regional regulations really such a terrible idea? Shipping keeps saying the IMO is the best guarantor of smooth global legislation. Neville Smith ponders the alternatives

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he things that work well and are easy to use tend to become those that endure. Things that are difficult to understand and get to grips with tend to fail and sooner or later will fall out of use. So it is curious that a majority of shipping industry leaders continue to believe that global regulation should be the only option, especially when it’s clear that maritime has as at least as many regional and cultural differences as any other industry. After all, no-one seriously believes the industry operates at a single global standard in any other way. As anyone interested in the subject will know, drawing up global standards is fraught with challenges. Enforcing them equitably is close to impossible if the evidence of those at the sharp end is to be believed. It is unfortunate for IMO that the pandemic coincided with the breaking of the post-1945 global consensus but a scamper through current geopolitics suggests that some fracturing was all but inevitable. The changing balance of power in global trade, technology and defence made sure of that. In a world that trades only freely at times but certainly in great volume, it seems logical that if a large trading bloc wants to enforce the highest possible environmental standards as the price of doing business, it will do so like it or not. This is not to say the EU’s plan for shipping within its Emissions

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Trading System is a good idea. As has been seen before, in the absence of a global system, a regional ETS won’t work without fungibility to other regional schemes. In that event perhaps European, US or Asian owners would feel happy paying into a regional fund that can direct the money where it is most needed and be administered in a way that keeps them contributing? But in a world where uneven enforcement means that in reality double standards already exist despite the best intentions of the regulator, perhaps regional regulation hubs are better than nothing. I fully accept this will be an unpopular suggestion for several reasons. A two or three tier system risks skewed commercial advantage at the least and a lack of environmental protection where arguably it is most needed. There are implications for economic development, skills and capacity building too. But the world that gave us global regulations as the default position is changing and arguably disappearing. For one thing, the widely-held view that shipping capacity and therefore greenhouse gas emissions would continue to increase rapidly in future has been altered by decarbonisation and by Covid-19. Even so, the chances of IMO agreeing anything beyond energy efficiency measures quickly are slim; let’s not forget it took a decade for the revision of Marpol Annex VI to turn into IMO2020. That is too slow for the

decarbonisation agenda. The regulatory vacuum caused by the relative speeds to action of the EU and IMO asks the question of whether the industry should wait for a global solution when regional ones might work. The changed world in which we live also includes market mechanisms that seek to make access to finance contingent on improving environmental performance. If lack of access to capital forces the players who don’t commit to lower carbon operations out of the market, is that really a bad thing? The EEXI may do something similar after all. Recent thinking even suggests that new players might come into post-Covid shipping and shake it up. That remains to be seen but could smarter ways of raising finance be created that enable developed countries to enact regulations and even generate funds that can be transferred to developing nations? Pre-pandemic, the idea that the shipping industry would work together at anything other than the highest level would have been a stretch. Now, it seems some shipowners, including members of the Global Maritime Forum think the time has come to look collectively at regional solutions for progress. It seems almost heretical to suggest it, but perhaps it makes sense to define what regional systems, administered locally and responsive to local conditions, might look like and whether it would really be that much worse than what we have now. ● maritime ceo


REGULAR OPINION

LNG enters new phase Dallas Smith from the Liberian Registry calls for more LNG fuelling options for the raft of newbuilds coming this decade

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allas Smith, director of LNG and offshore at the Liberian Registry, writes today on the importance of rapidly scaling up LNG fuelling options at ports around the world.

We need to accept that LNG-fuelled ships are going to be charterers’ often chosen newbuilds for this decade

There’s a ploy used in tabloid journalism about building up stars and then bashing them once they’ve made it to the big time. The same could be said in the excruciating slow development of LNG as a ship’s fuel. However, the past few days have been rather monumental in the marathon to make LNG a mainstream shipping fuel, led by the fuelling in Rotterdam of a gigantic modern marvel CMA CGM vessel - the largest ship fuelling to date of this fuel type. It has taken a long time to get to where we are today - on the cusp of genuine change. Prior to joining the Liberian Registry this year, I was with the United States Coast Guard for 20 years, during which time I oversaw all the LNG operations for the organisation globally including all things related to bunkering. I’ve seen LNG as a fuel grow from bullish pronouncements in conference halls 15 years ago to now being used onboard ship; but it has been slow and still the shoreside infrastructure needs beefing up. Yet no sooner has gas taken off than its detractors have come out in force the methane slip argument is gaining

ISSUE FOUR 2020

traction. Nevertheless, I still believe gas as a bridging fuel has a strong future - there is very little out there so far down the road in terms of tech and infrastructure development. It’s time is now, made all the more relevant by the decision this week at the Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to bring in emissions cutting measures across the entire global merchant fleet. At the Liberian Registry we are building a global gas team, and we’re now the fastest growing flag for gas-related ships in the world. We’re definitely seeing a huge shift with so many of our customers moving in the direction of gas, whether it is LNG, propane, ethane - as a transition fuel - hopefully for 25 years, but we don’t have a crystal ball. Of course, LNG’s greatest problem is that it contains carbon, so it may not be around beyond 2050, but that does not mean it cannot play a crucial part on shipping’s path to zero carbon. LNG has long been touted as a future fuel but in chicken-and-egg fashion we’ve been waiting around for so long, working out who will build the bunker facilities, the bunker vessels and the whole supply chain. It is getting there, but it is still

hardly global - we need more. Take the US west coast, for instance, that is an area in urgent need of gas fuelling infrastructure, and bear in mind this can take three to five years to install. Port authorities need to build the infrastructure because LNGfuelled ships are being built fast - 200 already delivered with at least another 100 on the orderbook. Here’s an interesting stat for readers, courtesy of brokers SSY. Of the total tanker contracting - for vessels 10,000+ dwt and excluding chemical tankers - in the first 10 months of 2020, about 10% of the orders were placed for LNG dualfuelled vessels, close to the 11% placed in 2019, and up from 2% in 2018 and about 8% in 2017. “As confidence in LNG as a bunker fuel has grown alongside improved vessel refuelling infrastructure and accessibility, more shipowners have in the last two years committed to LNG dual-fuelled ships rather than LNG-ready vessels,” SSY noted in a report this month. We need to accept that LNG-fuelled ships are going to be charterers’ often chosen newbuilds for this decade - and these ships will be around through to the 2040s - so now is the time to make their fuelling options far more global. ●

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MARPOLL REGULAR

Looking ahead Six questions posed. Hundreds of views. Here’s what you’re thinking about the future of our industry What will be the worst performing shipping segment in 2021?

Should regional environmental regulations be welcomed?

Regional regulations might not be ideal, but in the lead-up to 2030, will potentially deliver more

Yes 71% No 29%

Oversupply of crude with a falling price environment will reduce crude carriers’ earnings next year

Containers 9% Dry Bulk 22% Crude Tankers 44% Product Tankers 21% LNG 3% LPG 1%

Will charterers dictate this decade’s round of newbuildings?

Have newbuild prices bottomed out?

If they wanted to dictate they should build their own ships

FX and steel price have put a halt on any further drop

Yes 62%

Yes 37%

No 38%

No 63%

What will be the best performing shipping segment in 2021?

Nuclear-powered ships are making headlines. What’s the biggest thing holding this energy back from being deployed on merchant ships?

A big uplift will occur as the pandemic burns out

All of the above. It will never happen

Containers 46%

Cost 25%

Dry Bulk 20%

Regulatory Authorities 34%

Crude Tankers 4%

Public Perception 41%

Product Tankers 5% LNG 20% LPG 5%

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