March 28, 2014
Tsunamis
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billion to $10 billion. “It is a very plausible event … it’s not that frequent, but it’s also not really crazy,” said Lucy Jones, a USGS scientist who headed the study, known as the Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) Tsunami Scenario. Jones, who also led the first “ShakeOut” earthquake scenario in 2008, spoke during a lecture on tsunamis at the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach on Monday, March 24. The sold-out event, which included a panel of experts, coincided with Tsunami Preparedness Week. The event also took place just days before the 50th anniversary of the Great Alaska Earthquake, which triggered a tsunami on March 27, 1964, killing a total of 16 people in California. About three years ago, teams of scientists, first responders and other experts began modeling the tsunami scenario after the Alaska earthquake. The study, however, was later extended to take into account the 2011 tsunami that was triggered by the Tohoku, Japan earthquake that resulted in the
Fukushima nuclear disaster. That tsunami didn’t produce much flooding in California but caused millions of dollars in damages to marinas, particularly in the Crescent City Harbor, according to experts. A tsunami causing the sea level along California to suddenly rise five feet is rare and only happens about every 100 to 200 years, Jones said. However, she noted that such an event would damage harbors and marinas, spreading debris throughout the area. Jones said a tsunami would also impact the ports of Long Beach and Los Angeles, which receive 40 percent of the nation’s imports. “This isn’t just a Long Beach issue,” Jones said. “This isn’t even just a California issue. It’s of incredible importance for the whole United States.” Patrick Lynett, an associate professor at USC’s department of civil and environmental engineering who analyzed ocean currents for the study, said large vessels, such as container ships and cruise liners, will be “mostly safe.” He added, however, that it would cause major disruptions at the ports because of strong currents and smaller boats at
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Sean Belk/Signal Tribune
A panel of experts conduct a lecture at the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach on March 24 regarding the threat of a large tsunami hitting the California coast. Pictured, from left, are: Lucy Jones, scientist with the U.S. Geological Survey; Patrick Lynett, associate professor with USC; Jeff Reeb, director of emergency management for the County of Los Angeles; and Rick Wilson, senior engineering geologist for the California Geological Survey.
marinas would be the most damaged. “Along the West Coast in 2011, we had a lot of damage in harbors, but you didn’t have a lot of flooding,” Lynett said. “The reason that you have all this damage in harbors is because, even if the water doesn’t go very high, it still goes very fast.” He said the worst place for a boat to be during a tsunami is navigating in and out of the harbor “gates,” where there would be the strongest currents. “That’s a particularly bad area to be,” Lynett said. “you really don’t want to be a ship making your way through the gate because the currents there are tremendously strong and they’re swirling … If you have time to get out of the harbor before the wave comes, great, get out. If you don’t, stay in the harbor, tie your boat up, straighten the lines and just leave. you don’t want to be in the water while the tsunami is happening.” He added that the Long Beach breakwater won’t make much of a difference in a tsunami, since it’s “quite permeable” and the displaced water would still rush Courtesy CGS through it. Coastal cities across the state This photo taken by staff of the California Geological Survey shows the devastation to boats and marinas left behind from the tsunami caused by the Tohoku, Japan earthquake are currently preparing evacuation in 2011. Though the tsunami did not produce much flooding, the fast-moving surge did plans in the event of a tsunami cause millions of dollars in damage to boats and marinas along California, particularly while maritime officials are working with new maps developed by in the Crescent City Harbor.
the California Geological Survey (CGS) that outline maximum tsunamiinundation zones. Rick Wilson, senior engineering geologist for the CGS, said the study concluded that neither of California’s nuclear power plants would likely be damaged by such a tsunami. However, he said a large tsunami still would impact other power plants and facilities. Wilson added that the State has posted blue signs on some beaches and coastal communities to make people aware that they are in a tsunamiinundation zone. “It doesn’t happen often, but when [a tsunami] does happen, especially when there’s a high tide, we see the potential for more flooding,” Wilson said. In Long Beach, the inundation zone extends from the Queen Mary to just south of Ocean Boulevard. Under the scenario, areas submerged would be the Aquarium, the Long Beach Convention Center, Shoreline Village, the Pike and the Alamitos Bay Marina. Jones said more than 20,000 residents in Long Beach who live in the inundation zone would have to be evacuated, adding that the zone includes some schools, daycare centers and adult centers that should have adequate evacuation plans in place. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has two hours from the time the earthquake hits to issue a tsunami warning,
she said. Thereafter, residents have two hours before the tsunami touches down to evacuate the area, which in most causes means moving about three blocks inland. “If we handle the warnings right, nobody will die,” Jones said. “… you survive a tsunami by not being in a tsunami.” Jeff Reeb, director of emergency management for the County of Los Angeles, said it’s important to encourage the public, particularly people with disabilities, to be prepared for a major tsunami in order to minimize any loss of life. He said people should stay connected through cell-phone notification systems, such as Alert LA and Nixle, as well as social media. Reeb added that residents and business owners should learn the appropriate steps to take when tsunami warnings come forward, such as preparing go-to kits with important records and other valuables. “What we encourage everyone to do is, of course, be aware of your surroundings, whether you’re visiting our Aquarium or down in one of our coastal areas,” Reeb said. “When the warning comes, it is time to move. Whether you walk or run or ride, it’s time to go.” MORE INFORMATION conservation.ca.gov usgs.gov