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TOPIC GUIDE UPDATE Chair: Ben Della Rocca Vice Chairs: Shubhavi Arya, Samuel Seo
Yale Model United Nations Korea Conference III May 16 -18, 2014
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Topic 1: Ensuring the equitable distribution of transnational natural resources Nile River dam in Ethiopia In the Nile river area, the tension between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia has changed very little since January 2014. Despite the fact that many experts are claiming that there will no effect on the Nile river in Egypt, Egypt is showing a skeptical attitude towards Ethiopia’s dam projects. A water expert from the American University of Cairo said, “It is unlikely that Ethiopia will severely choke or stop the flow of water. Ethiopia needs the electricity…and hydroelectric dams don’t work unless you let the water through”1. Also the Sudanese government has also supported the Ethiopian dam because “the dam would have minimal impact on its [Sudan’s] water allotment…and the mega-project’s other benefits became clear.” Moreover water experts think that the dam will decrease the probability of flooding as well. Egypt, however, as previously mentioned, is showing an increasingly negative view about this dam. Some Egyptian warmongers and politicians have unnecessarily threatened Ethiopia and other upstream African countries who support the dam construction. Also there are Egyptian generals who are currently in southern Somalia and Ogaden encouraging rebels against Ethiopia2. This politicking, however, may be influenced by Egypt’s domestic power struggles. Egypt ignored the negotiation for a CFA treaty, which was created by all other Nile African countries. Despite the threats, the Ethiopian government is not willing stop the construction plans. Ethiopian experts say that the large increase of population has made the construction of dam necessary. Egypt’s government responded by saying that “Egypt’s stance towards the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is clear and there is no room at all to waver or risk endangering Egypt, because the issue is considered a national security priority.” Egypt is also requiring the Ethiopian government to submit construction plans for the dam for assessment by international experts, and Ethiopian government responded saying that the country is committed to the recommendations of an international committee of experts3. Water Scarcity Since January 2014, the biggest change in water scarcity has occurred in the Middle East. The lack of water in Yemen, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq is increasingly severe and requires international attention. Not only do these countries have increasingly large populations, but also 1
"Cairo Analyst Says Ethiopia Dam Won’t Hurt Egyp."Ventures, 28 03, 2014. http://www.venturesafrica.com/2014/03/cairo-analyst-says-ethiopia-dam-wont-hurt-egypt/ (accessed April 1, 2014). 2 "Egypt mulls international arbitration over Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam." Asharq Al-Awsat, 4 04, 2014. http://www.aawsat.net/2014/04/article55330757 (accessed April 1, 2014). 3 "Ex-irrigation minister says Egypt not proactive enough on Ethiopian dam." aharm online, 05 03, 2014. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/95978/Egypt/Politics-/Exirrigation-minister-believes-Egypt-notproactive.aspx (accessed April 3, 2014).
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are suffering from desertification and water mismanagement. Due to this mismanagement of water resources, droughts are even more frequent in 2014 than previous years4. Jordan and Yemen are the two countries that need clean water. Jordan’s average freshwater withdrawal is less than ten percent of Portugal’s average despite the fact that they are in the same size. Yemen has a relatively high population growth rate and one of the highest rates of malnutrition, which is exacerbated by water scarcity and subsequent poor agriculture. Despite the UAE’s wealth and luxury, it is predicted to only have about 50 years left of local water resources. Although the UAE government is investing in desalination technology, water consumption rates in the country are still unsustainable5. Related to the water scarcity, there was a conference held in Lebanon on March 21 about water and energy indepence. It was organized by the Friends of Ibrahim Abdel Aal Association, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), the Association of Lebanese Industrialists, and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). The conference discussed Lebanon’s water scarcity problems, and Lebanon’s new status as being below the water poverty line. Topics debated included reducing pollution, water waste, and the possible involvement of the UN. On the topic of pollution, it was reported that water pollution due to industrial activity has decreased access to clean water, and serious efforts by public and private sectors to prevent water pollution is needed.6 Questions to consider update 1. How can African governments receive aid to jumpstart their economies that does not lead to aid dependence? 2. What effective actions can governments can take to have better management of water? How can the UN assist in these efforts? 3. How can water distributed to all fairly?
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"Water in Crisis- Middle East," Water project, 11, no. 2 (2014), http://thewaterproject.org/water-in-crisis-middleeast (accessed April 3, 2014). 5 The world's water, "Pacific institute." Last modified 1 17, 2014. Accessed April 4, 2014. http://www2.worldwater.org/data.html. 6 Kamel, Saleh. "Lebanon Faces Water Crisis." assyrian international news agency, 03 31, 2014. http://www.aina.org/news/20140330215700.htm (accessed April 3, 2014).
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Topic 2: Encouraging the diversification of rentier states Saudi Arabia In spite of controlling nearly one-fifth of all oil reserves in the world, the country has suffered from account deficits and tight budgets since the early 1980s. GDP has decreased to nearly half and the financial constraints have resulted into declining living standards and increased unemployment. This problem was identified significantly in the Ninth Development Plan that specifically looked over raising the income of citizens, and improving the quality of services offered by the government. It is believed that the current oil-based economy of the country is insufficient to run the present society. The development plans of Saudi Arabia focus on improving the private sector. However, ‘privatization’ is not referred anywhere in its current plans, indicating that increased private sector involvement relates to establishing new activities. Saudi Arabia heavily depends upon the oil industry. Thus, any disruption to the oil industry can be damaging to this Arab rentier state. Despite all protests throughout the Middle East in early 2011, the Arab Spring didn’t modify Saudi Arabia’s political system. The monarchy used its oil revenues to keep lower the dissatisfaction of the population. On February 23, 2011, King Abdullah declared a $37 billion aid package for distribution amongst Saudi citizens in the form of pay rises, affordable family housings benefits, unemployment benefits and many others.7 This step taken by the government is a clear evidence of using rentier profits to maintain control. Oil revenue has definitely helped the monarchy ensure their continued reign regardless of opposition and is one of the major factors why the rulers have survived. Thus far Saudi Arabia’s development has been state-led. A major part of the economy has depended upon the government sector spending which has been closely linked to the revenue from oil and gas sectors. Therefore, although the private sector makes up about 60% of contribution to the GDP, it does not imply that the economy is market based. Due to the merits of a market-driven economy and the private sector, Saudi Arabia has worked on enhancing the business atmosphere since the 2000s. As a result the domestic and foreign investments have also improved. Attracting foreign investors in both private and public sectors is a major concern, for example: in gas and oil extraction or in services and utilities. In this way foreign investments will help the country in boosting a good production base. FDI in the utilities sector are especially important. A major progress was achieving the membership of World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2005. The Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia 7
Laessing, Ulf. "Saudi King Back Home, Orders $37 Billion in Handouts."Reuters. Thomson Reuters, 23 Feb. 2011. Web. Apr. 2014. <http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/23/us-saudi-king-idUSTRE71M22V20110223>.
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have made efforts in making the country business friendly to attract foreign investors. Consequently, the World Bank Doing Business index ranked Saudi Arabia as 26th place to easily to do business in the world.8 Saudi Arabia has implemented a number of significant policies and taken efforts to improve the climate for attracting businesses and diversify its economy. However, political will to move the country away from being heavily dependent on oil revenue is still lacking, and recent political upheaval in the region has not encouraged experimentation with the currently stable economy. Oman: Since the beginning of 1970s, Oman has used revenues from its restricted oil and gas production to diversify the economy. Due to suitable weather conditions for agricultural production and as a result of Oman’s state-led policies, and to a limited extent by suitable maritime conditions for fishing, the state of Oman was ranked as the second most diversified economy in 2010. The government has opened up for foreign investments by creating free zones and has welcomed monetary support for gas development. Such economic reforms have helped to improve the business atmosphere in Oman. However, regardless of all these initiatives, the nation is still dependent on the hydrocarbon industry. With the beautiful topography and landscape of the state of Oman, the tourism sector holds a notable future, though the tourism infrastructure is still quite undeveloped. For the benefit of the tourism industry as well as the industrial sector, accessibility and closeness to Dubai could be useful and most likely provide encouragement to adopt liberal policies. This will open up Oman as an outback to the economic activities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi. One such example of this approach is the joint venture between the Port of Rotterdam and the government of Oman regarding the development of the Port of Sohar and its industrial free zone. In spite of Oman’s attempts to develop an operational private sector, the people of Oman are still accountable to an increasingly state-led development plans. In the plans, it is not the private industry but the government that is believed to drive and run the economy of the country. However, the policies have a noticeable neo-liberal flavor to it as they stress on a free market economy and a functional private industry. This, together with increasingly finishing oil resources, makes it a matter of concern for Oman to execute a diversified and productionoriented strategy.
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"Economy Rankings." Ranking of Economies. N.p., n.d. Web. Apr. 2014. <http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings>.
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UAE: In early 2010, UAE started its Vision 2021.9 This plan paved the way for the National Work Program started in 2005 and the UAE government Strategy (from 2008-2010). Soon after the beginning of Vision 2021, the government issued the UAE Government Strategy for 2011-2013. The ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, who is the vice-president and prime minister for the UAE, has approved all of these three documents. Vision 20121 specifically looks at fulfilling the goals of social and economic development and providing the government services to all seven emirates. According to the plan, UAE wishes to establish itself as one of the best places in the world for business10. Moreover, it also focuses on economic diversification and making the economic system less dependent on oil. Their main method of doing this is through encouraging innovation and improving the business environment for foreigners. Qatar 60% of Qatar’s GDP is from the energy industry, but growth is occurring in other markets, and the real GDP grew 6.5% since the beginning of 2014. The Qatari central bank expects real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.8% by end of 2014. A variety of industries have expanded since the beginning of 2014, including the transportation industry, due to increased use of the Doha airport. More increase in this sector is expected, as subway and road networks are currently being expanded on. Qatar’s population is increasing, which while boosting the economy, also exacerbates resource scarcity, for example water problems11. Bahrain Over the past few years, Bahrain has worked hard to diversify its economy, particularly encouraging the communication and transportation industries to encourage foreign investment. Bahrain has also been expanding its banking industry, and now rivals Malaysia as one of the global centres for Islamic banking. Due to domestic unrest from the Arab Spring, Bahrain experienced a decrease in GDP in 2011 and 2012, but recovered by 2013 and tourism rebounded.
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"UAE Today- The UAE Government Official Portal." UAE Today- The UAE Government Official Portal. N.p., n.d. Web. Apr. 2014. <http://www.government.ae/en/web/guest/uae-today>. 10 UAE Cabinet 2010b 11 "Qatar’s real GDP growth in Q4 showcases diversification: QNB." Gulf times. http://www.gulf-times.com/eco.bus.%20news/256/details/387237/qatar%E2%80%99s-real-gdp-growth-in-q4-showcases-diversification:-qnb (accessed April 14, 2014).
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Also new economic policies such as suspension of an expatriate labor tax has assisted in diversifying Bahrain’s economy12. Questions to Consider: 1. What barriers to growth are visualized in the development and economic planning of UAE and Saudi Arabia and how should diversification overcome them ? 2. Which economic sectors should be given most priority for the diversification efforts (ex – tourism, oil and gas, finance, knowledge, logistics, industry, trade etc.) ? 3. Who should be the driver of the future economy? Who should be responsible for determining how much should be produced – public sector or private sector?
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Central Intelligence Agency. "." Central Intelligence Agency. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/ba.html (accessed April 15, 2014).
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