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South Dakota Secretary of State

QUARTERLY BUSINESS & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Fourth Quarter 2013 PUBLISHED BY NORTHERN STATE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

INDICATORS Employment (SA)

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New Entity Filings

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Personal Income

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Unemployment

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A Stellar End to 2013 Business Filings advance in Q4 2013, but fall for the year. Although not always predictive of future economic results, business filings can be indicative of the future direction of growth. 2013 ended down versus 2012. The reduction in filings could be the beginning of a moderate downturn for the state as a result of sagging grain prices. South Dakota/National Unemployment Rates continue to improve. For the three months ending on December 31st, South Dakota’s unemployment rate averaged 3.7%, beating the four year best mark set just last quarter. The continuous improvement in employment is strongly correlated to a healthy and growing economy. While the national unemployment rate continues to lag behind South Dakota at 7.0%, the national number improved by over 10% versus 2012.

personal income finished 2013 on a positive note. Improving personal income coupled with improving employment numbers are supportive of economic growth. Consumer sentiment still is deemed to be at low levels, likely the result of the Great Recession. However, in December the consumer savings rate (generally measured as a function of personal income versus personal spending) fell, which would seem to indicate sentiment will improve in nearby future quarters.

Record Year for the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ‌.. The Great Recession will likely affect the national psyche for a full generation. However, following an incredible $384 billion inflow into stockbased mutual funds, all three major indexes reached all-time historic levels with the Dow up 26%, the S&P up 29%, and the NASDAQ up 40%. Sentiment may make 2014 choppy, but projected Personal Income, Savings Rate, and Sengrowth should overcome emotion. timent end mixed. Local and National

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EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS

Jason M. Gant South Dakota Secretary of State State Capitol 500 East Capitol Avenue Pierre, SD 57501-5070

Note: Red line displays actual seasonally adjusted employment numbers. Source: Seasonally adjusted South Dakota total nonfarm employees from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Labor Market Information Center, SD Department of Labor.

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Quarterlyeconomicindicatorsreportq42013 final