Facts & Trends Real Estate
Ruhl&Ruhl Realtors
Summer 2018
Mid-Year Update: Flat Forecast for Home Sales This Year
Caroline Ruhl, CEO Chris Beason, President
RuhlHomes.com
IN THIS ISSUE: page 4
Home Price Appreciation is Strong and Stable in our Region
page 4
Quad Cities Mid-Year Comparison Chart
page 6
Most Iowa Farmland Owners Don’t Actively Farm
page 7
Slight Warming Trend for New Home Sales
Total sales volume across all of our markets in this region was virtually unchanged for the first six months of 2018, compared to 2017. There were 3% fewer properties sold, but the average sales prices were up 3% resulting in sales volume being flat year over year. It should also be noted that 2017 was a record breaking year, with regional sales being up 12% for the first six months, so we are really just experiencing a more “normal” year. As shown on our Regional Activity Chart on page 2, there was considerable variation from market to market. Below is just a sample of our many markets shown: % Change in Sales Volume
-3% Dubuque Area
+4% Cedar Rapids Area
+5% Illinois Quad Cities
Low Inventory of Affordable Homes
We continue to struggle with a shortage of affordable inventory for buyers. Entry level demand remains robust, but with inventory deficits most severe at this price point, we are seeing the strongest appreciation in homes in the affordable price ranges. High end demand is holding steady but elevated inventory at the higher price points is limiting appreciation in this housing segment. “The root cause of the underperforming sales activity in much of the country so far this year continues to be the utter lack of available listings on the market to meet the strong demand for buying a home,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR (National
Association of Realtors) Chief Economist. The biggest cohort of homebuyers, millenials, are particularly struggling, with homes in their price point all but swallowed up. There is a brighter horizon, however. “We are starting to see new listings grow. The inventory shortage isn’t over - it took us years to get into an inventory rut, so it’s going to take us years to get out of it. But we do see signs of a turnaround,” according to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com.
Impact of Rising Interest Rates
Interest rates on July 16, 2018, with no points were still attractive: 15-year Conventional Fixed..........4.125% 30-year Conventional Fixed.........4.500% FHA/VA 30-year Fixed.................4.375% 5/1 ARM (Adjustable Rate Mortgage)... 4.125% Average mortgage rate projections by Fannie Mae, MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) and NAR for 30-year fixed: 2018 3rd Quarter 4.67% 4th Quarter 4.77% 2019 1st Quarter 4.83% 2nd Quarter 4.90% Rising rates seem to have encouraged some buyers to get off the fence and take action before rates go up further and reduce their buying power. Some experts advise that when rates get to 6% - 6.5% that homeowners who have a 3% loan or less are not going to move, further fueling our inventory shortage. However, those of us who have been in the real estate market since the 1980’s remember selling homes at 18%, and thinking if we ever could get back to 12%, sales would be gangbusters. So at this point it is steady as we go, and smart investors and homebuyers are seizing today’s low rates.
2018 Regional Real Estate Activity Through June
Average 2018 Sales Price
% Change in Average Sales Price from 2017
$117,100 $190,800 $99,200 $152,700 $187,500 $186,400 $95,700 $126,400 $201,700 $246,500 $152,600 $134,700 $181,700
-5% +5% -8% -7% -1% +7% +2% +6% +1% +6% -1% -2% +3%
Burlington Area Cedar Rapids Area Clinton/Camanche/Fulton Area DeWitt Area Dubuque Area Galena & Galena Territory Galesburg Area Illinois Quad Cities Iowa Quad Cities Iowa City Area Muscatine/Wilton Area Southwest Wisconsin Area 2018 Regional Total
2018 Number Sold
453 2,311 207 51 703 95 262 1,126 1,169 1,580 258 249 8,464
% Change in Number Sold from 2017
-8% -1% -10% -6% -1% +4% 0% -1% -9% -5% -5% -2% -3%
2018 Sales Volume
$53,051,700 $441,017,900 $20,528,900 $7,787,800 $131,802,400 $17,705,500 $25,083,300 $142,326,800 $235,772,900 $389,511,200 $39,382,000 $33,536,000 $1,537,506,400
% Change in Sales Volume from 2017
-12% +4% -18% -12% -3% +12% +2% +5% -8% +1% -7% -4% 0%
Active Listing Count 2018
495 1,172 229 24 371 304 296 669 522 1,274 135 208 5,699
% Change in Active Listings from 2017
Months of Inventory
-10% -9% -25% -14% +4% -4% +14% -9% -5% +6% -22% -16% -5%
5.1 2.5 5.0 2.5 2.8 12.9 6.9 2.8 2.1 4.4 2.8 3.5
Summary of Regional Real Estate Activity
Listing Inventory
Properties Sold
Average Residential Sales Price Sales Volume
Cedar Rapids Area
Listing Inventory: There are 1,172 residential properties listed for sale in the Cedar Rapids area, 9% fewer than the same time last year when there were 1,282 properties listed. 2 • RuhlHomes.com
DeWitt Area
Listing Inventory: DeWitt area’s listing inventory is down 14%, from 28 properties listed for sale last year to 24
Listing Inventory
Properties Sold
2017 2018
2017 2018 $131,802,400
703
2017 2018
$135,394,500
Dubuque Area $187,500
2018
2017
2018
$189,900
2017
$441,017,900
2018
$424,841,700
2017
$190,800
2,311
2,342
1,172
1,282
2018
$181,400
2017 2018
2017
Listing Inventory: There are 25% fewer properties listed for sale in the Clinton, Camanche and Fulton area; comparing 229 current listings to 304 properties for sale last year. Properties Sold: 10% fewer properties sold through June 2018, a decrease from 231 sales in 2017 to 207 sales through June 2018. Average Sales Price: The average sales price through June 2018 was $99,200, an 8% decrease from the average sales price of $107,800 through June 2017. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume was down 18% through June 2018, from $24,893,300 in 2017 to $20,528,900 through June 2018.
713
Cedar Rapids Area
Clinton, Camanche & Fulton Area
properties currently on the market. Properties Sold: 51 properties sold and closed through June 2018, a 6% decrease compared to 54 sales through June 2017. Average Sales Price: The average sales price of homes sold through June 2018 was $152,700, 7% less than through June 2017 when the average sales price was $164,200. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume decreased 12% through June from $8,865,800 in 2017 to $7,787,800 in 2018.
371
Listing Inventory: There are 495 homes and condominiums listed for sale in Burlington, Iowa and the surrounding area, a 10% decrease from the same time last year when there were 549 properties for sale. Properties Sold: 8% fewer residential properties sold through June 2018 than through June 2017, comparing 490 sales last year to 453 sales this year. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $117,100, a 5% decrease from the average sales price through June 2017 of $123,500. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume was down 12%, a decrease from $60,528,800 through June 2017 to $53,051,700 through June 2018.
Properties Sold: Through June this year, 2,311 properties sold, 1% fewer than the 2,342 that sold through June 2017. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $190,800 through June 2018, 5% more than the average sales price of $181,400 through June 2017. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume increased 4%, from $424,841,700 through June 2017 to $441,017,900 through June 2018.
356
Burlington Area
Average Residential Sales Price Sales Volume
Dubuque Area
Listing Inventory: There are 371 residential properties listed for sale in the Dubuque area; a 4% increase from the same time last year when there were 356 properties for sale. Properties Sold: 1% fewer properties sold through June 2018; a decrease from 713 closings through June 2017 to 703 closings through June 2018. Average Sales Price: The average sales price of homes sold through
Summary continued on page 3
Galesburg Area
Listing Inventory: There are 296 residential properties currently listed for sale in the Galesburg area, which is 14% more than the 259 for sale last year. Properties Sold: Sales have remained flat comparing 261 properties sold through June 2017 to 262 through June 2018. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $95,700 through June 2018, 2% more than the average sales price of $94,100 through June 2017. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume increased 2% through June 2018, from $24,558,200 to $25,083,300.
Illinois Quad Cities
Listing Inventory: The number of properties for sale in the Illinois Quad
Listing Inventory
2017 2018
2017
2018
Properties Sold
2018 $235,772,900
2017
$255,342,100
2018
$201,700
Iowa Quad Cities $199,500
2017
1,169
Listing Inventory: There are 304 properties for sale in Galena and the Galena Territory; 4% fewer than the same time last year when there were 316 listings. Properties Sold: There was a 4% increase in the number of residential properties sold through June 2018, comparing 91 sales in 2017 to 95 sales in 2018. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $186,400 through June 2018, 7% more than last year when the average sales price was $174,200. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume was up 12% through June 2018, an increase from $15,849,000 through June 2017 to $17,705,500 through June 2018.
1,280
Galena & Galena Territory
Cities is down 9%; from 739 listings last year to 669 listings currently on the market. Properties Sold: Through June 2018, 1% fewer properties sold, comparing 1,136 sales through June 2017 to 1,126 sales through June 2018. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was up 6%, from $118,800 through June 2017 to $126,400 through June 2018. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume increased 5% through June 2018, from $134,964,400 to $142,326,800.
522
June 2018 was $187,500, which is 1% less than the average sales price of $189,900 through June 2017. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume through 2018 was $131,802,400, down 3% from the same period in 2017 when sales volume was $135,394,500.
550
Summary continued from page 2
Average Residential Sales Price Sales Volume
Iowa Quad Cities
Listing Inventory: There are 522 homes and condominiums listed for sale in the Iowa Quad Cities, 5% fewer than the same time last year when there were 550 properties for sale. Properties Sold: 9% fewer properties sold through June 2018, a decrease from 1,280 sales through June 2017 to 1,169 sales through June 2018. Average Sales Price: The average sales price increased 1%; from $199,500 through June 2017 to $201,700 through June 2018. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume decreased 8% from $255,342,100 through June 2017 to $235,772,900 through June 2018.
Iowa City Area
Listing Inventory: The number of properties for sale in the Iowa City area is up 6%, an increase from 1,204 in 2017 to 1,274 properties currently on the market. Properties Sold: 5% fewer properties
sold through June 2018, a decrease from 1,656 sales in 2017 to 1,580 sales in 2018. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $246,500 through June; a 6% increase compared to 2017 when the average sales price was $233,200. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume increased 1%, from $386,148,800 through June 2017 to $389,511,200 through June 2018.
Muscatine & Wilton Area
Listing Inventory: There are 135 homes and condominiums listed for sale in the Muscatine and Wilton area, 22% fewer than the same time last year when there were 173 properties for sale. Properties Sold: 5% fewer residential properties sold through June 2018, comparing 273 sales last year to 258 sales through June of this year. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $152,600, 1% fewer than the average sales price through June of 2017 of $154,900. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume was down 7%, from $42,281,000 through June 2018 to $39,382,000 through June 2017.
Southwest Wisconsin Area
Listing Inventory: There are 208 properties for sale in the southwest Wisconsin region, a 16% decrease compared to the same time last year when there were 249 listings. Properties Sold: There was a 2% decrease in the number of residential properties sold through June 2018, comparing 253 properties sold in 2017 to 249 properties sold this year. Average Sales Price: The average sales price was $134,700 through June 2018, 2% lower than through June 2017 when the average sales price was $137,900. Residential Sales Volume: Sales volume was down 4%, a decrease from $34,899,400 through June 2017 to $33,536,000 through June 2018.
Quad Cities MLS Statistics - Iowa & Illinois Combined Through June
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Current MLS Listings Average Sales Price Total Sales Volume Total # of Sales YTD
1,649 $147,200 $289,633,100 1,968
1,626 $153,900 $326,745,700 2,123
1,421 $155,000 $361,233,600 2,331
1,289 $161,600 $390,306,500 2,416
1,191 $164,700 $378,099,700 2,295
% Change 2017 vs. 2018 -7.6% +1.9% -3.1% -5.0%
RuhlHomes.com • 3
R
Mid-Year Comparison of Quad Cities Real Estate Activity Sales
IL 1,126
Totals 2,295
IA 522
Listings
2018
IA 1,169
2017
1,280
1,136
2,416
550
739
1,289
2016
1,291
1,040
2,331
602
819
1,421
2015
1,075
1,048
2,123
743
883
1,626
2014
1,059
909
1,968
750
899
1,649
2013
1,140
874
2,014
743
893
1,636
2012
977
840
1,817
934
949
1,883
2011
901
733
1,634
973
1,133
2,106
2010
1,064
833
1,897
972
1,067
2,039
2009
884
749
1,633
957
981
1,938
2008
1,029
907
1,936
1,081
1,079
2,160
2007
1,171
1,011
2,182
1,108
991
2,099
2006
1,218
1,054
2,272
1,107
985
2,092
2005
1,200
1,102
2,302
960
885
1,845
2004
1,257
1,074
2,331
989
959
1,948
2003
1,139
971
2,110
931
835
1,766
IL 669
Totals 1,191
Home Price Appreciation is Strong and Stable in our Region Five-year home appreciation in our region was between 10.36% and 15.26% with all of our regional Metropolitan Statistical Areas experiencing a positive gain. “Home prices continue to rise across the U.S. but there are signs of tapering,” said Dr. William Doerner, Senior Economist. “Since housing markets began to rebound in 2012, house price appreciation has been positive because demand has outpaced supply. In the last month, however, some regions reflect a slowing or even flattening of house price growth.” In the past year, home prices are up: 5.14% in Dubuque; 3.11% in Iowa City; 1.89% in the Quad Cities and 3.26% in Cedar Rapids. This compares to other cities: Des Moines up 4.61% and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs)
Cedar Rapids, IA Davenport-MolineRock Island, IA-IL Des MoinesWest Des Moines, IA Dubuque, IA Iowa City, IA USA
Chicago up 4.50%. This data is provided by the FHFA for the first quarter of 2018 (see chart and website below). Of course, there is considerable variation based on price range and location of properties, with more affordable properties appreciating more. “Years of low inventory and pent up buyer demand have resulted in a seller’s market in the affordable price ranges across many of our local areas,” said Caroline Ruhl, CEO of Ruhl&Ruhl Realtors. “We are unsure of how long this trend will continue, especially given the trends with mortgage rates. We urge people who are on the fence about selling their home to contact your local real estate professional for a free market analysis.”
Percent Change in House Prices 1 Year 5 Year
2018 1st Quarter National Ranking of 246 MSAs*
Burlington Area (Southeast Iowa Regional Board of
Cedar Rapids Area (Cedar Rapids Area Assoc. of R Southeast Cedar Rapids Northeast Cedar Rapids Southwest Cedar Rapids Northwest Cedar Rapids Hiawatha & Robins Marion
East of I-380: Mechanicsville, Anamosa, Mt. Vernon, L West of I-380: Walford, Fairfax, Atkins, etc. Corridor Area: Solon, Ely, Swisher Condominiums
Clinton/Camanche/Fulton Area (Quad City Area Re DeWitt Area (Quad City Area Realtor Assoc.) Dubuque Area (Dubuque Board of Realtors) Dubuque North, South and West Dubuque Illinois Wisconsin
Galena & Galena Territory (Realtor Assoc. of North Galena Galena Territory Galesburg Area (Capital Area Association of Realto Illinois Quad Cities (Quad City Area Realtor Assoc. Rock Island Milan & Rural Rock Island County Moline Coal Valley, Rural Moline, Miscellaneous East Moline & Silvis Port Byron, Upper Rock Island County Mercer County Henry County Condominiums Iowa Quad Cities (Quad City Area Realtor Assoc.) Davenport Bettendorf & Riverdale Blue Grass, Buffalo, Durant & Walcott LeClaire, Pleasant Valley & Princeton North Scott County Miscellaneous Condominiums Iowa City Area (Iowa City Area Assoc. of Realtors) Iowa City Coralville Northwest Iowa City Northeast Iowa City Southeast Iowa City Southwest Iowa City
+3.26%
+10.36%
163
Corridor Area
+1.89%
+10.41%
231
Condominiums
+4.61%
+21.73%
187
+5.14% +3.11% +6.89%
+12.38% +15.26% +34.25%
170 213
Information courtesy of Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) for first quarter 2018. FHFA stats always run one quarter behind. Their full report is accessible at www.fhfa.gov. *Rankings based on annual percentage change in house prices.
4 • RuhlHomes.com
Through June
Miscellaneous
Muscatine & Wilton Area (Muscatine Board of Real Muscatine Wilton Muscatine Outlying Condominiums
Southwest Wisconsin Area (S. Central Wisconsin M
This representation is based in part on data supplied by the REALTOR Associati The counties we track for the Burlington Area are Des Moines, Henry, and Lee in The cities we track for the DeWitt Area are DeWitt, Calamus and Wheatland. Th
Regional Residential Real Estate Activity Current MLS Listings Realtors)
Realtors)
Lisbon, etc.
ealtor Assoc.)
% of Active Listings
495 1,172
2018 Avg. Sales Price
2018 Sales Volume
2018 # Sold
$117,100
$53,051,700
453
% of Unit Sales
Sales/ List
2017 # Sold
2017 Avg. Sales Price
2017 Sales Volume
95%
490
$123,500
$60,528,800
$190,800
$441,017,900
2,311
99%
2,342
$181,400
$424,841,700
102
9%
165,300
34,709,600
210
9%
97%
171
157,700
26,958,700
116
10%
183,900
67,135,500
365
16%
99%
336
181,300
60,911,400
64
5%
166,500
37,472,900
225
10%
100%
233
151,000
35,179,900
41
3%
153,800
28,599,200
186
8%
99%
194
139,700
27,106,900
27
2%
254,200
11,692,900
46
2%
97%
50
286,000
14,298,100
113
10%
233,500
66,085,700
283
12%
100%
284
223,800
63,560,900
135
12%
161,500
32,141,500
199
9%
97%
236
163,300
38,535,400
136
12%
173,500
32,971,300
190
8%
97%
222
161,500
35,855,700
106
9%
343,900
48,140,300
140
6%
98%
144
295,600
42,564,300
332
28%
20%
175,700
82,069,000
467
101%
472
169,200
79,870,400
229
$99,200
$20,528,900
207
90%
231
$107,800
$24,893,300
24
$152,700
$7,787,800
51
97%
54
$164,200
$8,865,800
371
$187,500
$131,802,400
703
95%
713
$189,900
$135,394,500
213
57%
194,300
93,466,500
481
68%
96%
515
194,800
100,296,300
118
32%
173,200
30,999,100
179
26%
92%
159
165,100
26,245,000
28
8%
180,500
4,692,000
26
4%
92%
31
235,100
7,288,200
3%
155,600 $186,400
2,644,800 $17,705,500
17 95
2%
93% 86%
8 91
195,600
1,565,000
hwest IL)
12 304
26% 74%
174,200 192,000 $95,700
5,225,800 12,479,700 $25,083,300
30 65 262
32% 68%
ors)
79 225 296
89% 86% 94%
39 52 261
$174,200 124,500 211,400 $94,100
$15,849,000 4,855,300 10,993,700 $24,558,200
$126,400 99,300 193,000
$142,326,800 20,350,500 14,278,900
1,126 205 74
18% 7%
96% 96% 93%
1,136 217 94
$118,800 94,500 156,100
$134,964,400 20,495,700 14,672,800 28,743,400
.)
ltors)
MLS Board)
669 104 54
15% 8%
135
20%
114,500
31,264,300
273
24%
97%
258
111,400
31
5%
158,300
8,071,200
51
4%
97%
55
123,300
6,779,600
66
10%
114,000
16,759,200
147
13%
96%
162
109,700
17,778,100
50
7%
166,800
8,838,100
53
5%
97%
40
202,500
8,099,600
59
9%
107,600
5,808,600
54
5%
96%
80
117,800
9,426,400
111
17%
137,300
27,730,400
202
18%
96%
167
123,400
20,613,700
59
9%
6%
96%
63
132,600
8,355,100
98%
1,280
$199,500
$255,342,100
522
137,700
9,225,600
67
$201,700
$235,772,900
1,169
212
41%
157,800
103,848,600
658
56%
98%
673
146,400
98,537,000
134
26%
304,700
76,778,000
252
21%
99%
292
312,100
91,131,300
12
2%
196,000
6,271,000
32
3%
98%
50
217,000
10,847,700
45
9%
310,900
18,034,000
58
5%
98%
55
292,300
16,078,500
39
7%
265,100
11,133,300
42
4%
98%
66
254,000
16,766,600
28
5%
131,500
4,865,900
37
3%
94%
39
126,100
4,919,800
52 1,274
10%
164,900 $246,500
14,842,100 $389,511,200
90 1,580
8%
98% 99%
105 1,656
162,500 $233,200
17,061,200 $386,148,800
285
22%
292,300
110,196,700
377
24%
98%
384
291,000
111,736,800
78
6%
319,800
28,465,700
89
5%
98%
99
332,900
32,958,200
123
10%
348,400
62,715,600
180
11%
99%
172
298,300
51,300,600
29
2%
202,200
5,863,800
29
2%
95%
39
183,600
7,161,400
13
1%
171,200
4,965,400
29
2%
98%
29
154,800
4,490,300
68
5%
188,500
13,947,300
74
5%
98%
100
177,800
17,780,600 14,907,500
55
4%
307,700
19,078,300
62
4%
98%
49
304,200
135
11%
170,900
40,332,900
236
15%
98%
235
187,400
44,037,000
488
39%
206,200
103,945,500
504
32%
100%
549
185,400
101,776,400
$152,600
$39,382,000
258
97%
273
$154,900
$42,281,000
81
60%
155,400
27,978,400
180
70%
97%
178
157,400
28,013,800
4
3%
140,000
2,239,400
16
6%
98%
24
172,600
4,142,300
43
32%
139,600
6,981,100
50
19%
96%
62
140,900
8,737,500
7
5%
181,900
2,183,100
12
5%
96%
9
154,200
1,387,400
$134,700
$33,536,000
249
92%
253
$137,900
$34,899,400
135
208
ions or their Multiple ListÂing Services. Neither the Boards nor their MLS guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by the Boards or their MLS may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. n Iowa; Hancock and Henderson in Illinois. The cities we track for the Clinton/Camanche/Fulton Area are Clinton and Camanche in Iowa; Albany, Fulton and Morrison in Illinois. RuhlHomes.com he counties we track for the Galesburg Area are Knox and Warren. The counties we track for the Southwest Wisconsin Area are Grant and Lafayette.
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Most Iowa Farmland Owners Don’t Actively Farm Nearly 60% of Iowa farmland owners don’t actively farm, a new Iowa State University (ISU) survey shows, and about one-third of owners have no farming experience at all. Twenty-four percent of those owners are retired farmers, according to the ISU Farmland Ownership Tenure Survey that looked at trends from 2012 to 2017. Iowa has about 30 million farm acres, or nearly 90% of the state. Here are some other statistics from the survey, which is required under state law every five years: Recession Buffer: 82% of Iowa farmland is owned debt-free, which represents a significant increase from 62% in 1982 and 78% in 2012. It helps explain why Iowa farmland prices have only fallen about 16% since hitting a high in 2013, while farm profits have fallen 75%, ISU economists said. “About 55% of all land in Iowa has been owned by the same owner for over 20 years,” said Wendong Zhang, an ISU economics assistant professor. “With low turnover, and with limited supplies, it supports higher land values.” “That’s provided a buffer in this current farm downturn,” said Zhang, who led the survey with Alejandro
Plastina, also an assistant ISU economics professor. Tough for Young Farmers: People 65 years or older own 60% of farmland, 5% higher than in 2007, and twice the level in 1982. People 75 years and older own a record 35% of all acres in Iowa. At the other end, those younger than 35 own less than 2% of the state’s farm acres. Outside Ownership?: Full-time Iowa residents own 80% of the state’s farmland; people living outside the state own 13%; and part-time Iowa residents own 7% of the land. Gender Differences: Women own 47% of Iowa farms, but they’re less likely than men to grow crops. 55% of male owners are likely to farm, while only 39% of women farm. Rented Land: 53% of Iowa farmland is rented, with 83% of the agreements for cash. “Leased farmland was equally divided between cash rent and cropshare leases in 1982,” the survey says. Under a crop-share agreement, the landowner and farmer share the costs to raise corn, soybeans or other crops, and share the profits or losses. One reason for the crop-share decline: fewer profits in farming. It’s Not Apple: Trusts accounted for 20% of all acres owned in Iowa, while
three decades ago, there were few, the survey said. Farmland owned by individuals and farm couples or family members declined from 80% in 1982 to only half in 2017. Corporate ownership has remained relatively stable since 1982, coming in at 10% last year. “These corporations aren’t Apple or Microsoft,” Zhang said. Fifty-five percent of corporations are owner-operators, the survey shows. Give it Away: Willing or giving the land to family remained the most popular method of intended land transfer, accounting for more than half of all acres of Iowa farmland, the economists said. The second-most popular intended method of land transfer, at 26%, was putting it into a trust. Only 7% of Iowa farmland was intended to be sold to a non-family member. For Money or Love: Half of landowners own the property to create income. 19% owned it as a long-term investment, and 29% is owned for family or sentimental reasons. In 2012, only 22% of Iowa farmland owners held onto land for sentimental or family reasons. Source: Des Moines Register, https://dmreg.co/2IBBUG9
Regional New Construction Inventory & Home Sales Through June Cedar Rapids Area Houses Condos/Villas Dubuque Area Houses Condos/Villas Illinois Quad Cities (Rock Island County) Houses Condos/Villas Iowa Quad Cities (Scott County) Houses Condos/Villas Iowa City Area Houses Condos/Villas Total Regional Combined 6 • RuhlHomes.com
Active Inventory 6/30/16
150 84 66 51 38 13 7 6 1 94 63 31 338 165 173 640
Active Inventory 6/30/17
124 75 49 64 44 20 10 4 6 95 73 22 277 116 161 570
Active Inventory 6/30/18
138 100 38 60 37 23 12 7 5 103 80 23 409 148 261 722
% Change in Inventory from 2017
+11% +33% -22% -6% -16% +15% +20% +75% -17% +8% +10% +5% +48% +28% +62% +27%
Sales 2016
139 83 56 46 37 9 5 2 3 109 81 28 212 127 85 511
Sales 2017
170 97 73 39 32 7 6 6 0 112 80 32 222 120 102 549
Sales 2018
157 114 43 40 29 11 4 4 0 122 95 27 255 130 125 578
% Change in Sales from 2017
-8% +18% -41% +3% -9% +57% -33% -33% 0% +9% +19% -16% +15% +8% +23% +5%
New Housing Starts Through June
2015 2008
Burlington Area Burlington West Burlington Cedar Rapids Area Cedar Rapids Marion Rural Linn County Hiawatha Dubuque Area Dubuque East Dubuque Galena Jo Daviess County Peosta Surrounding Dubuque Area Illinois Quad Cities Moline & Coal Valley Rock Island East Moline & Hampton Colona Port Byron Geneseo Rural Rock Island County & Milan Silvis Whiteside County Iowa Quad Cities Davenport Bettendorf Rural Scott County Eldridge & Long Grove LeClaire & Princeton Blue Grass - city of Iowa City Area Iowa City Coralville North Liberty Rural Johnson County West Branch Williamsburg, Wellman & Kalona West Liberty & Tipton Muscatine Area Muscatine Muscatine County Wilton Other Areas Clinton, Camanche & Fulton DeWitt Maquoketa, Preston & Bellevue Total Regional Starts
18 7 11 307 161 96 43 7 135 36 1 1 10 4 83 42 8 1 0 1 1 8 10 1 12 191 33 70 40 24 20 4 197 58 13 73 45 1 5 2 22 8 14 0 21 8 5 8 933
2016 11 11 0 324 153 91 61 19 180 64 0 5 21 8 82 97 66 1 1 3 1 3 17 1 4 242 55 92 33 29 28 5 203 80 12 57 42 4 5 3 18 3 15 0 22 9 6 7 1,097
2017
2018
17 15 2 281 104 90 76 11 133 31 1 1 11 17 72 67 33 0 2 2 0 3 18 1 8 193 56 81 17 25 10 4 174 79 6 34 18 4 10 23 21 6 15 0 45 32 6 7 931
6 4 2 241 87 76 70 8 134 33 0 1 13 12 75 50 15 2 0 4 0 4 13 1 11 178 39 62 35 21 18 3 161 59 5 50 26 11 7 3 21 3 18 0 30 15 9 6 821
% Change 2017 vs. 2018 -65% -73% 0% -14% -16% -16% -8% -27% +1% +6% -100% 0% +18% -29% +4% -25% -55% +200% -100% +100% 0% +33% -28% 0% +38% -8% -30% -23% +106% -16% +80% -25% -10% -25% -17% +47% +44% +175% -30% -87% 0% -50% +20% 0% -33% -53% +50% -14% -12%
Source: Municipal offices. There may be additional new homes built which are not included with this data.
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Slight Warming Trend for New Home Sales A steady rise in temperatures has been accompanied by climbing new home sales totals. At the end of the second quarter, our regional MLSs reported a YTD increase in house sales of 11% and a 19% increase in house inventory. Condo sales continued to lag, with a decrease of 4% in sales but a 36% increase in condo inventory. Condos represent 36% of new home sales YTD, down from 41% in 2017. These factors combined for an overall 5% increase in unit sales and a 27% increase in inventory. Dramatic market segment differences are outlined in the charts on page 6 and to the left. Rising building costs are reflected in the charts below: Houses: YTD 2018 YTD 2017 YTD 2016 Below $300K 30% 35% 34% $300 - $400K 39% 36% 43% Above $400K 31% 29% 23% Condos: YTD 2018 YTD 2017 YTD 2016 Below $200K 17% 43% 43% $200 - $300K 67% 42% 43% Above $300K 16% 15% 14%
CEDAR RAPIDS: The area experienced an overall 8% reduction in unit sales vs. 2017, due mainly to a 41% drop in condo sales. House sales grew by 18%. Condo inventory dropped 22% while house inventory jumped 33%. The College Community School District was the only sector showing a sales increase, at 26%. The strongest house price range was at $250-350K. Condo sales below $250K fell 64%. YTD existing to new home sales ratio = 9.1 to 1. DUBUQUE: Sales were up 3%, with a small decrease in house sales being offset by one of the few increases for condos around the region. Overall unit inventory is down 6% vs. 2017, with condos increasing and houses decreasing at about the same rate. The strongest price points in this market were houses at $300-400K and condos from $175-300K. House sales above $400K were down 86% with 45 months of inventory. Condo sales above $300K were down 50% with a 33 month supply. YTD existing to new home sales ratio = 16.6 to 1. IOWA CITY: Overall unit sales rose 15% while inventory levels jumped a combined 48% at the end of the second quarter. House sales were up 8% with a 28% increase in supply, as condo sales were up 23% with a 62% rise in inventory. Iowa City, Coralville and Tiffin showed sales gains in
Slight Warming Trend continued on page 8 RuhlHomes.com • 7
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Slight Warming Trend continued from page 7
both categories, while North Liberty and the outlying areas showed mixed results. House sales above $400K were up 68%, while condo sales below $200K were down 60%, despite a current 10 month supply. YTD existing to new home sales ratio = 4.1 to 1, easily the regions’ best. QUAD CITIES: The QCA experienced mixed sales results, with house sales up 15% and condo sales down 16%, yielding an overall increase of 7%. House inventory
rose by 13% while condo inventory remained the same. In Scott County, house sales $300-500K were strong - up 58%, but above $500K they fell by 28% with 9 months of inventory. While area condo sales $225-300K were up 56%, sales below $225K were down 77% YTD. QCA existing to new home sales ratio = 15.2 to 1, while the ratio in Scott County is 9.7 to 1. Modest sales increases were predicted for 2018 and, to date, are what we have experienced. A 27% increase in available
new homes inventory could be the result of two causes. 1) Consumers, builders and developers confidence is slowly increasing. 2) The cost to construct a new home is growing slightly faster than demand, leading some builders to conclude that they will build their inventory at current costs and rely upon growing consumer demand to absorb the inventory. So, do not look for new homes or building costs to come down. THIS is the BEST time to build your DREAM!
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