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Thursday 28 April 2016
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GORBACHEV: WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG? Politics & Society War games Why the Russians are NOT coming
Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev says a failure to build on East-West goodwill in the recent past has left a globalised world racked by political and moral challenges
W ALEXEY MALGAVKO/RIA NOVOSTI
P.02
Special Report Turbulence for tourists There’s no place like home for Russian holidaymakers P.04-05
Analysis Beware the Brexit A strong European Union makes perfect sense to Moscow P.06
here is the globalised world heading in the 21st century? People are asking this question today with increasing anxiety. I am one of them. With my friend, the late Hans-Dietrich Genscher [German foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1974-1992], we often asked the following question: what went wrong? Our generation – a generation of politicians whose joint efforts contributed to ending the Cold War – carried out its mission. But then why is today’s world unquiet, unjust and militarised? It seemed that the end of global confrontation and the unprecedented possibilities of new technologies, primarily informational, should have given the world a new breath, making each individual’s life better. But reality has turned out differently. This does not have an easy explanation. I often used to say that politicians were not up to par. Those who declared the victory of the West in the Cold War, who refused to build a new, equitable security system, bear a large portion of the responsibility for the current state of the world. Triumphalism is a bad adviser in world affairs. But that is not the only problem. The new globalised world is still not understood and interpreted. It needs new rules of conduct, a new morality. But the world leaders, apparently, cannot grasp this. I think that here lies the main reason for today’s “global troubles”.
WINNER AND LOSERS People are worried about the tension in international affairs, but they are no less worried about their own situation, their own future. This is all inter-related. Even in the most developed countries, the majority (the middle class is the foundation of every successfully developing society) expresses its dissatisfaction with its life. Voters are more frequently supporting populist politicians who propose apparently simple but in reality dangerous solutions. However, irresponsible financial structures have adapted well to globalisation and benefited from it, blowing soap bubbles and making billions from the air. These billions find their way into a narrow circle of people who hide them from taxation. We have just seen new examples of this. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. All this without mentioning the fact that organised crime struc-
tures, drug dealers, arms dealers, groups profiting from massive migrant flows, cybercriminals and most importantly, terrorists, all feel very comfortable in the globalised world.
FROM CRISIS TO CRISIS World politics has still not found an effective solution for any one of these problems. Meanwhile, a new round of the arms race has begun, the ecological crisis is getting worse and the gap between rich and poor countries is growing, as well as between the rich and the poor within individual countries. These are the problems that must be on the top of the world’s agenda. But they are not being solved. Dead ends are everywhere. And yet it would seem that there are possibilities to overcome them, as well as mechanisms – those that have existed for a long time, such as the UN, and new ones, such as the G20, which was created to meet the new challenges. But hardly anyone can say that they have been successful. They are always late; they are always behind. We are faced with a leadership crisis, both international and national. Politicians are occupied with putting out fires, solving the day’s problems, crises and conflicts. No one is arguing: they must be solved. And in the last few weeks there have been some positive breakthroughs. There is dialogue on Syria. Even though for now its biggest participants are external countries, primarily the US and Russia. But this has already helped to loosen the tensions between Russia and the West. If this trend is developed it can then be applied to other spheres of relations. But this will be a lengthy and complicated process. Trust has been greatly damaged. On the other hand, there have been no breakthroughs to solving the Ukrainian crisis. The current regulatory mechanisms are working poorly. There is the impression that the mechanisms are becoming a routine. We should not abandon the mechanisms (the Minsk agreements, the Normandy Four). But evidently they need to be completed and stimulated to work. Possibly through discussions in the UN Security Council or other mechanisms with the participation of Russia and the US. We cannot leave the Ukrainian crisis as an abscess, creating a fever throughout Europe and the world. Europe may not withstand another frozen conflict. I again ask presidents Obama and Putin (I did this for the first time in 2014) to meet and discuss this continuing crisis.
WORLD AGENDA But even if we are able to overcome the acute current crisis, it will be important but only a first step towards solving a much more complex problem: learning how to live in a global world. Without a global context it is impossible to understand the reasons for and consequences of the current conflicts and develop a renewed agenda and resources for solving the problems that will inevitably arise in the world. In the world policy agenda the most important thing is to correctly understand the priorities. As of today these are: the continuous problem of weapons of mass destruction, arms races and the militarisation of world politics; the problem of poverty and the underdevelopment of an enormous part of humanity; the ecological challenge and climate change; and terrorism. Other acute problems include mass migration, xenophobia and religious intolerance, and the problem of co-existence of various civilisations. The common denominator of all these problems is that not one of them can be solved militarily. To say that it is necessary to unite efforts would seem like an axiom. But for now disunity and the inability to act together are prevailing. Governments and their leaders bear the main responsibility for such a state of affairs. The global world now has other participants in world processes: civil society organisations, business, the scientific community and religious associations. But the role and responsibility of governments, their leaders and intergovernmental organisations must remain decisive.
THE MORAL IMPERATIVE Another imperative for today’s globalised world is the necessity to unite politics and morality. This is a big and difficult problem. It cannot be solved in one fell swoop. But if we do not face this problem and work assiduously in solving it, the world will be destined to experience new conflicts and insoluble contradictions. Double standards are especially dangerous in the global world. All possibilities for governments to support (out of their interests) terrorist and extremist groups must be excluded, just like any support for any movement promoting an armed fight to overthrow legal governments. Relations between governments in the globalised world must be regulated not only by international legal norms, but also by certain “rules of conduct” that are based on principles of human morality. These rules of conduct must include restraint, consideration of interests of all sides, consultation and mediation when the situation intensifies and there is a threat of a crisis. I am convinced that it could have been possible to avoid the Ukrainian and CONTINUED ON PAGE 2
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Politics & Society P2_Thursday 28 April 2016_www.rbth.co.uk_THIS SUPPLEMENT IS SPONSORED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA
NEWS IN BRIEF FROM RBTH.CO.UK
Why the Russians are NOT coming
Russia to invest £658m in rebuilding Syria Syrian Prime Minister Wael Al-Halqi has announced that his country and Russia have signed an agreement on the restoration of infrastructure in the war-torn country in a deal said to be worth 850m euros (£658m). The main objective is to restore the destroyed power grids, oil production and refinery plants. According to Mr Al-Halqi, "More than 60pc of the plants are not working and need fuel to start the operation,” though the country's power grid is not completely destroyed. The country’s refinery facilities, which have remained under the control of the government, are stretched to the limit, said Mr Al-Halqi, explaining that the country needs 35,000 tons of oil a day.
‘Immortal Regiment’ to march through London War games A BBC film detailing a hypothetical Nato-Russia military confrontation over unrest in Latvia is unrealistic, say Moscow experts OLEG YEGOROV SPECIAL TO RBTH
Broadcast on BBC2 in February of this year, World War Three: Inside the War Room, imagines a hypothetical situation in which Russian-speaking separatists in Latvia, a Baltic state and Nato member, begin an uprising that quickly leads to an armed clash with the Latvian army. The viewer is admitted to the command post in London, as a “war cabinet” of former military and diplomatic figures determine how the UK and Nato should respond to Russia’s support for the insurgents.
A so-called ‘Immortal Regiment’ will march across London on 9 May in honour of the participants in the Second World War. On what is celebrated as Victory Day in Russia, members of the procession will carry photographs of their deceasaed relatives who took part in World War Two. Starting from the North Terrace of Trafalgar Square at 2.30pm, the ‘regiment’ will walk to Old Palace Yard via Whitehall, Downing Street, Parliament Square and Westminster Abbey. The Immortal Regiment is a public not-for-profit organisation, created on a voluntary basis, bringing together people of all ages, social groups and political beliefs. Anyone can enrol to participate in the march to honour the memory of those who earned the hard-won victory in 1945. Last year, on the 70th anniversary of the Allied victory in World War Two, more than one million people took part in the event in Moscow, and up to 12 million across Russia generally.
Donbass scenario The first shots of the film look like documentary footage from the eastern Ukrainian cities of Donetsk and Lugansk in spring 2014. People shouting,“Russia! Russia!” occupy the town hall of the Latvian city of Daugavpils, proclaim the government of the Latgalo-Russian Union and demand a referendum on the status of Latgalia, a region that has a significant Russian population. The parallel to eastern Ukraine is rather obvious and the film forces us to consider what would happen if the Donbass scenario were to be repeated in a Nato country, which the alliance, in accordance with its charter, must defend. However, Russian analysts are convinced that unlike Donbass, there is no one in Latgalia who would tear down the Latvian flag from the mayor’s office and fight with the local police. “The people in Latvia and other Baltic countries have chosen to be part of Europe. Those countries don’t have so many Russian supporters as in Crimea or the Donbass,” says military analyst Konstantin Sivkov, vice-president of the Moscow-based Academy of Geopolitical Problems. Other experts say the film – which prompted protests from the Kremlin – is dangerous sabre rattling.Vladimir Kolosov, political commentator and head of Russia’s Geographical Union, says there is no evidence ethnic Russians in the Baltics wish to foment dissent. In his view, the ethnic Russians in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia are loyal to their governments. “Neither Latvia nor the other Baltic countries have ever had influential pro-Russian parties and movements,” says Mr Kolosov. “All the Russians who wanted to go back to Russia did so in the Nineties, while those who remained are satisfied with their lives.” Mr Kolosov speaks about the phenomenon of the “Baltic Russians”, people who, while preserving their Russian ethnic identity, are comfortable being citizens of other countries and have no desire to relocate to Russia. “The problem of non-citizens, that is stateless Russians who live in the Baltics, is also being resolved gradually. In the past year they have been receiving citizenship, although slowly,” he notes.
Award for study of Russia on eve of revolution
ILYA PITALYOV/RIA NOVOSTI
Nato forces destroy the Russian army and advance into the country. Obviously, the Kremlin will resort to nuclear weapons
Nuclear strikes
Mutual annihilation
According to the plot of the BBC film, both Russia and Nato are forced to up the ante in the dangerous game, while the UK’s military council tries to demonstrate its fidelity to Nato’s principles of collective defence and prevent a nuclear war. However, in the end, because of the mutual escalation, the worst does happen and the film’s protagonists prepare for a nuclear strike on London. Mr Sivkov says that in reality, Nato countries understand the hopelessness of a conflict with Russia. “Nato countries have substantial superiority in military resources, if we exclude the nuclear factor,” he argues. “In the event of a clash using conventional weapons Russia will definitely lose. “But what’s next? Just think: Nato forces destroy the Russian army and advance into the country. Obviously, the Kremlin will resort to nuclear weapons.”
The opposite is also true: a Russian strike on Nato would only bring catastrophe for Moscow. “A hypothetical Russian nuclear strike would be answered with a nuclear strike,”says Mr Sivkov. He believes the film’s implausibility lies in Russia being presented as reckless.“Russia has no chance in a war against Nato,” he says.“The Kremlin understands this perfectly well, which is why it will not aggravate the conflict.” Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, says: “The possibility of a mutual nuclear strike is the film’s most unrealistic part. Neither Moscow nor Brussels would want to escalate the situation to such an extent.”He adds that the most dangerous region is “the Middle East, where the civil war in Syria is still raging and Russia is experiencing tensions with Turkey”. But not the Baltics.
Flying the flag: modern Armata tanks rumble through Alabyno in the Moscow region during the Victory Day Parade
30 years on: we must not forget lessons of Chernobyl SPECIAL TO RBTH
Nuclear power is safer today but the industry will not forgive political bias or negligence. Thirty years ago this month there was a disaster at the nuclear plant near the Ukrainian city of Chernobyl. A blast destroyed the fourth reactor, releasing radiation into the environment. But in spite of the mistakes made by the Soviet management, nuclear scientists took the only reasonable decision available to them and by the autumn had built a sarcophagus that made a further release and further spread of radiation impossible. What happened at Chernobyl was a lesson for the world. Much has changed in the global nuclear power industry over the past three decades. Nuclear power plant safety regulations have been tightened, improved reactors have been developed, with active and passive safety systems, and new power units that meet modern safety requirements have been developed. However, as the accident at Japan’s Fukushima power plant in 2011 shows, the safe operation of a nuclear power station requires extreme diligence and accuracy in operation. Today, some experts are particularly concerned about what’s happening in Ukraine’s nuclear industry. Ukraine
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Mikhail Gorbachev: Where did it all go wrong? CONTINUED FROM PAGE 1
COMMENT
Andrei Reitinger
Dominic Lieven’s book Towards the Flame: Empire, War and the End of Tsarist Russia has won the 2016 Pushkin House Prize, an annual award given for non-fiction books about Russia. Looking back to the eve of revolution, the book sets the start of the Soviet era in a “broader context of global history”, placing Russia “at the very centre of the history of the First World War”. One of the judges, Professor Geoffrey Hosking, called it “a uniquely perceptive account of the opinions and mentalities of leading Russian statesmen… set against the geopolitical opportunities and dangers, which Russia faced at the time.” He added we have “much to learn from this book today”.
inherited from the USSR modern nuclear power plants and a competitive nuclear energy sector, which obviously needed to be properly maintained and serviced. However, because of political turbulence and the overall administrative and economic degradation that has affected Ukraine in recent years, many questions have been raised by experts about the quality of the operation of nuclear facilities there. And there have been claims that some steps that have been taken in the field of nuclear energy in Ukraine are as dangerous as the procedure that was carried out on Chernobyl’s fourth reactor unit 30 years ago, which led to disaster. Energoatom, the company operating Ukrainian nuclear reactors, announced plans in mid-March to upgrade its nuclear power plants in order to increase the power output of 13 VVER-1000 reactor units to a level of 110pc of the nominal value. In addition, plans were announced to introduce load-following mode at nuclear power units, ie, the capability to reduce and increase the power output of the units quickly and as many times as the operator desires (a rapid change in the power output is a very difficult and potentially dangerous process for a nuclear power plant). Aware of the need to involve experts, Ukraine turned to Westinghouse, an American company held in high regard for its hi-tech nuclear culture. The problem, however, is that the American company is
not overly familiar with the technological features of the VVER reactor as it is a Soviet and Russian technology, while the Ukrainian reactors were constructed in the USSR. But the main designer of these reactors, the Russian experimental design bureau Gidropress, which knows the intricacies of its reactors down to the smallest detail, was not invited to participate in the modernisation programme. This decision has already led to a number of problems in the case of the replacement of Russian fuel for the American one, or mixing them. For instance, American fuel was loaded into Soviet reactors at the nuclear power units at the Temelin nuclear power station in the Czech Republic, but because the Westinghouse reactor fuel assembly (FA) was unsuitable, it was decided to give it up and return to Russian fuel. Ukraine went further and loaded Westinghouse FA into the reactor of the South-Ukrainian nuclear power plant, alongside Russian TVEL FA (and without the involvement of Russian specialists). As experts had warned, serious problems with the deformation of FA rod arrays occurred during refuelling, and as a result, the South-Ukrainian nuclear power plant also had to remove this fuel. But in spite of this experience, Ukrainian politicians decided to continue to buy Westinghouse fuel until 2020. However, adopting load-following mode at nuclear plants and their modernisation are
even more technologically vulnerable processes than replacing fuel. Recently, Kiev hosted a round table called Nuclear Energy in Ukraine. Load-Following: Blind Risk or Secure Economic Feasibility, which discussed the dangers of loadfollowing at the power units of nuclear power plants to adjust the power output of the united power system on a daily basis. In 2015, such an experiment was carried out at power unit No 2 of the Khmelnitsky nuclear power plant. However, according to Yury Sheiko, who is Energoatom’s production director, there should be 10 times as many experiments to achieve a reliable result. In turn, Konstantin Uschapovsky, an adviser to the Ukrainian prime minister, noted that the safe introduction of loadfollowing mode at nuclear power plants requires significant funds for their modernisation. But Ukraine does not have sufficient finance to do this. If, however, in the interest of economic advantage, the Ukrainian nuclear power plants introduce load-following mode without proper modernisation, such an experiment has the potential to recreate the Chernobyl disaster, where unwarranted load-following caused the explosion in the fourth unit. Andrei Reitinger is a journalist and an independent expert in the field of nuclear energy.
Syrian crises if their direct participants and especially the external parties had been guided by such rules of conduct.
Restore dialogue, restore trust The most important thing that I want to say is that it is necessary to put the issues of the renewed agenda, the combination of morality and politics and the rules of conduct in a globalised world at the centre of the attention of governments and the world’s civil society. I am convinced that Russia’s role in overcoming the global political crisis can and must be important and positive. It is time for the West to renounce its attempts to isolate Russia. This has never produced results. Personal sanctions will definitely not yield fruit, either. They should be lifted first. Otherwise, there will be no dialogue, there will be no chances to restore trust. No one should expect that after encountering economic difficulties, Russia will accept its secondary role in the world. If this happened no one would benefit. What’s more, everyone would only lose from a new Cold War. A couple of days ago, during his annual Direct Line Q&A on television, Vladimir Putin stated his intention to normalise relations with the West. But will our partners be able to readjust to a more constructive approach? This is still unclear, but I call on them to do so. Currently we are in a very delicate situation. We must throw away our emotions and propagandistic excess. Serious claims can be raised against today’s generation of important leaders. But this generation still has the opportunity to be remembered with dignity in the history books. And it would be a big mistake not to take advantage of this opportunity.
Business & Finance THIS SUPPLEMENT IS SPONSORED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA_www.rbth.co.uk_Thursday 28 April 2016_P3
Get resourceful to fund the future Q&A Leading international economist Sir Christopher Pissarides on how Russia can diversify and thrive
suffers from excessive saving, so they need to encourage more consumption. Russia needs a more independent and flexible industrial sector that can faster adapt to new technology. The service sector also needs more development, because it is the service sector that will provide more jobs in the future.
VSEVOLOD PULYA, ALEXEI LOSSAN
Consumer demand has weakened along with the rouble. Should this also be in the anti-crisis plan? Factoring this in through expansionary, monetary fiscal policy would be a good thing. But this is a temporary problem caused by the recession. When the economy picks up, demand will recover. I am in favour of using fiscal policy to stimulate private demand in a recession, unlike what is being done in the eurozone, which I am totally against. Stimulating consumer demand will not modernise the economy. It would perhaps prompt new demand and see you through this recession, but the problems will still be there and sooner or later there will be another shock. Russia needs to get out of the cycle its economy has been in for a while now.
RBTH
With labour markets changing all over the world, and both white and blue-collar workers losing their jobs, RBTH spoke to Sir Christopher Pissarides, winner of the 2010 Nobel Prize in Economics, to understand how Russia can escape economic crisis and respond to the robotics revolution. Sir Christopher is the School Professor of Economics & Political Science and Regius Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. He was in Russia as a guest of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. Recently, new start-ups have given birth to a phenomenon called ‘uberisation’ or the ‘shared economy’. How does the phenomenon of Uber influence the labour market? Uberisation brings out the entrepreneurial spirit in people, which in the past you did not have the chance to do. It is a very healthy development and makes people aware there are many opportunities in the market. Legal structures now allow people to make money out of things and use their entrepreneurial spirit. I may be unpopular in saying this, but it is a good thing as it brings newer and more interesting jobs. The economy is going through structural changes all the time and we should never look back.
Oil on troubled waters: Mr Pissarides says that money made from natural resources should be saved for the challenges of the future
Could the weak rouble make Russia more attractive as a cheap production location? This factor obviously contributes, but I do not think that Russia will ever be considered a low-wage economy in the medium or long term where foreign companies will want to come and establish factories. The primary concern should be the labour market environment; this is what foreign com-
In Norway, they use it to pay for the pensions of their ageing population, something that Russia will eventually face as birth rates are very low there now. If you do something like that, you must forget that you have the resources to get you out of trouble in the short term. Just keep them there, industries can buy your oil and natural resources and then that money will go directly into the fund and then that fund will have a rate of return because it will be invested in.
panies look at. Labour cost is just one aspect of that; far more important is the productivity of Russian workers and the willingness of the state to support the labour market with flexible legislation. Unemployment in Russia is low – just 5.4pc. Does this tell us anything about the economy? Or is it merely a strange phenomenon? Yes, strange is the right word to use when you are looking at Russian unemployment. The way the labour market is recorded is very different, and the Russian notion of unemployment is very different from that in Britain, France or Germany. Russian state unemployment support is very limited; it is a bad policy that actually incorrectly drives down the unemployment rate. Some countries have successfully weaned themselves off dependence on oil exploration and production. Are there any other models that could be applied to the Russian situation? The success story that everybody knows about is Norway but we also have the examples of Chile and Australia. The way that it should be done is to forget that you have these resources in the short term. You should extract the resources, sell them to the outside world but think about the long term. So, deposit the money you make from those resources into a low-risk fund and spend the rate of return or some fraction of it, but you should keep the money there for future generations as well.
We actually have such a fund but it is not working because every time we lose money we want to take some from this pot. Exactly, it is easy to set up a fund but it is difficult to use it in the right way. Even the Norwegian fund enables the government to take money from it through the central bank but, as far as I know, that has never happened.
Jobs, markets and the Nobel Prize Sir Christopher Antoniou Pissarides is the School Professor of Economics & Political Science at the London School of Economics. He specialises in labour market economics, macroeconomic pol-
icy, economic growth and structural change. In 2010 he was jointly awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics with Peter Diamond and Dale Mortensen. He also has a post at St Petersburg State University. His
most influential paper, published in 1994, is Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment. In 2005, he was the first European to win the IZA Prize in Labour Economics.
The Russian government recently announced an anti-crisis plan, focused largely on industry rather than consumers. Is this the right decision? I think at this juncture it is probably the right decision to emphasise industrial development and restructuring of the industrial service sector, because Russia, unlike China, does not suffer from insufficient consumer demand in normal times.You have economies like China, which
EAST NEWS
Robotics are also changing labour markets all over the world. Has this revolution already spread from blue to white-collar? It is a fascinating development, and is one of the biggest changes we are seeing taking place in the labour market since industrialisation and the decline of agriculture. This is a bigger structural shock than we have ever witnessed before, because in the past whenever we had technology destroying jobs, it was mainly lower skilled jobs that disappeared, so all we needed to do was to provide more education. However, now white-collar jobs are also being destroyed, you are destroying the middle management jobs to which university graduates aspire.You can see it taking place everywhere now, even in journalism and the universities. You still have the top and the bottom sections like the cleaners and the academics but the middle section no longer exists. Traditionally, many people have considered some jobs inferior, but these are important jobs. Running old people’s homes and children’s homes to a good, professional standard, like in Scandinavia, should be regarded as jobs for university graduates who get training in those areas and should be well paid. Education is another sector and then you have the retail section; although a lot of it is going digital, you still need good people on the shop floor.
A hard road ahead? Experts point to four key economic challenges Domestic economy Weak rouble and fluctuating oil prices cause Russia’s biggest economic headache for years as incomes fall IGOR ROZIN RBTH
Debate about the need for structural reform has intensified in Russia. But where should discussions focus? At a recent Moscow economic forum, ForeignersLife, leading experts identified four main problems with the Russian economy.
1. Incomes are dropping faster than ever Compared to recent crises in the Russian economy, people are becoming poorer at a faster rate than ever. By the end of 2015, the volume of goods bought by Russians had fallen by 10pc. Even in the most serious crisis in the country’s modern history – the default of 1998 - total household consumption fell only 5pc and by 4pc after the global financial crisis of 2008. Another reason why the population is running out of money is that businesses are deliberately reducing wages in order to increase their own profits. In 2015, nominal wages grew by 4.6pc, while company profits increased by an average of 49pc. One of the reasons for this is the lack of effective trade unions to defend the rights of workers in Russia.
2. A free-floating exchange rate leads to inflation In 2014, Russia introduced a floating exchange rate, ending government intervention and leaving decisions about the value of the rouble
Businesses are reducing wages in order to increase their profits. One reason is the lack of effective trade unions
to the currency markets. Since then, the rouble has fallen by 60pc against the dollar and euro. The value of the rouble is also affected by fluctuations in the oil price. That means the rouble may rise or fall by as much as 20pc in any given period. Such potential shifts in the currency rate are included in the price of all contracts in the country. Economists estimate that rouble instability adds up to 7pc to annual inflation rates. Last year, inflation in Russia averaged 15.5pc. In this situation, interest rates on bank loans, including those for the purchase of equipment, cannot be lower than 15-20pc. Business and industry simply cannot afford to buy new equipment and expand production – and this is another big issue.
3. Companies are not buying new equipment Compared to the crisis of 2008-09, the figures for GDP and various industries in Russia at the end of 2015 did not show a catastrophic decline. For example, GDP declined by 3.7pc compared to 7.9pc, the volume of construction fell by 7pc compared to 16pc, while the figure for railway freight was unchanged. According to economists, the bad news is that indicators that determine future economic growth – primarily investments – fell much more. Investment in fixed assets fell by 8pc, while imports of equipment from abroad were down by as much as 38pc. As a result, the average industrial use of equipment in Russia is 14 years - double that of the West. Around 20pc of machines are well beyond their expected lifetime, and may be scrapped at any time. Even the country’s wealthiest organisations
RAMIL SITDIKOV/RIA NOVOSTI
– oil and gas companies – are reducing their investment programmes. According to estimates by the researcher Abel Aganbegyan, at a price of $35 (£24.40) per barrel, oil companies’ investments will decrease by 20pc, while Russia’s natural gas monopoly Gazprom may postpone investments in the Power of Siberia pipeline, which is designed to carry gas from Russia to China.
4. Hopes for Chinese investment fade Chinese investments have yet to make an impact on the Russian market, in spite of many bold political statements promising a new era of Sino-Russian co-operation. Some investors from China have even begun to withdraw funds from Russia. On 4 February, China’s Chengdong Investment Corp announced that it was selling its stake in the Moscow stock exchange. Hopes are now shifting towards Indian investors; in Soviet times the USSR implemented a number of investment projects with India.
Over a barrel: high inflation and rouble instability are major problems for business
But what is more likely is an inflow of funds from Western capital markets. Many European countries in effect have negative interest rates, meaning that investors are increasingly being forced to seek projects abroad. Russian borrowers, including the government, have always been disciplined and have typically paid their debts on time. It is no coincidence that earlier this year the Russian Finance Ministry sent proposals for the possible issuing of Eurobonds in 2016 to 25 foreign banks. The last time that Russia borrowed from the international markets was in September 2013, when it sold a total of £4bn worth of bonds. This article is based on material prepared by forum participants: reports by researcher Abel Aganbegyan, Konstantin Korishchenko, the Central Bank’s former deputy chairman, and Oleg Zasov, director of macroeconomic forecasting atVnesheconombank – the country’s key development institution.
Analysis P6_Thursday 28 April 2016_www.rbth.co.uk_THIS SUPPLEMENT IS SPONSORED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA
BEWARE BREXIT: WHY A STRONG EU MAKES SENSE TO MOSCOW
ART OF DIPLOMACY
Shakespeare and Tolstoy: a rescue team for RussiaUK relations
Dmitry Suslov LENTA.RU
Alexander Yakovenko AMBASSADOR
“ KONSTANTIN MALER
There has been increased speculation coming from European media and politicians recently that Russia is interested in a disintegrated and weakened EU and is doing everything in its power to contribute to that. To support this, it is asserted that Moscow is seeking to resolve a whole range of matters at national rather than EU level and that it is financing right-wing parties. However, despite the fact that, given the current conditions, Russia indeed finds it more advantageous to interact only with those countries and political forces inside the EU that are interested in constructive co-operation, it does not mean that Russia would like to see the EU break up or be considerably weakened. On the contrary, paradoxical as it may sound, this prospect would run counter to Russia’s pragmatic interests. Furthermore, Russia sees the current problems in its relations with the EU as a result of the bloc’s weakening rather than strengthening. To a large extent, the current lamentable state of RussianEuropean relations is the result of the processes of disintegration and fragmentation that have been taking place inside the EU since the mid-2000s.
Security partner First and foremost, Russia needs a strong European Union as a partner in European security issues. A strong EU can put effective pressure on Ukraine, take part in discussing “hard security” issues (missile defence, tactical nuclear weapons, the INF Treaty, the CFE Treaty, the expansion of Nato infrastructure in Eastern Europe, arms control in general) and act as a viable partner in discussing and developing the system of European security in general. A viable and confident European Union will be less inclined to see Russia as an external threat, let alone exaggerate it. A weak EU, on the contrary, presents a separate problem for European security. It is instinctively drawn towards the USA and is urging the Americans to further increase their role in European security and military presence in Eastern Europe. This further deepens the geopolitical and military-political rift on the continent. A fragmented European Union that is unable to pursue a common foreign policy is incapable of either putting pressure on Ukraine, forcing it to implement the Minsk accords, or agreeing with Russia on the rules of the game in relation to Russia-EU common neighbourhood countries. Furthermore, in its current state it will not be able in principle to develop
A viable and confident European Union will be less likely to see Russia as an external threat
a new policy on its eastern flank, despite the obvious failure of current policy. The opinion that a weak and fragmented European Union pursues a generally more favourable policy towards Russia than a strong and consolidated EU is erroneous. On the contrary, a weak EU seeks to use the Russia factor as a “unifying otherness” and artificially promotes the image of threat. This became particularly evident during the Ukraine crisis (in 2014-2015). In addition, in a fragmented and divided EU, countries with the strongest anti-Russian sentiments, primarily Poland and the Baltic states, have a bigger influence on decision-making and arriving at a common denominator than they would in a stronger European Union, where they play a secondary roles.
Disciplining effect A strong EU would be useful to Russia in resolving Middle East problems. It is only by being an effective global player capable of pursuing a common foreign policy that the EU will be able to have a disciplining effect on Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran, ensuring the emergence of a new international-policy order in the Middle East with their adequate participation. A weak European Union, which is unable to pursue an effective migration and counterterrorist policy,
only fans the Middle East fire; the events of 2011-2015 are proof of that. A European Union that is capable of acting as a global centre of power will be able to weaken the trend for a division of the world into two large politico-economic communities and make the world more balanced in general. A consolidated EU will be a more confident negotiator with the USA on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and at the same time a more interesting partner for China. A weak EU, increasingly subordinated to Washington both politically and economically, on the contrary, serves as a powerful factor in a global rift. As for the attraction the EU has for postSoviet countries, it is a question more for Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union than for the EU. If Russia manages, having carried out the necessary reforms inside the country, to become a model for its nearest neighbours and to skilfully employ post-Soviet countries’ objective dependence on it and on Eurasian integration, then the EU will never be a hindrance. Dmitry Suslov is deputy head of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics and a programme director at theValdai Club.
VICTORY, LOSS AND THE COURAGE OF OLD MEN Hurricane fighters, the first of almost 3,000 Hurricanes that would be delivered over the life of the convoy era. The campaign was a huge success. The support that they delivered shortened the war in Europe by many months and, by Russian calculation, saved two million lives. For nearly a hundred years, it has been a British tradition to remember its war dead and the sacrifice of veterans on November 11, Remembrance Day. For Russia, Remembrance Day and Victory Day are synonymous. Consequently, it has become a British tradition over the past decade to recognise properly the part played by Russia in the Allied victory in the Second World War, and to invite Russian veterans here to celebrate with their Allied comrades.
Tim Lewin SPECIAL TO RBTH
Last year, Russia and the rest of the world celebrated the 70th anniversary of the Allied victory over fascism and the end of the global conflict that left 50 million dead and untold numbers of people wounded, displaced and traumatised. This year, for Russia there is an altogether more sombre series of events to reflect on; events that took place 75 years ago which strike an entirely different and more chilling chord in the collective Russian psyche. Then, Britain and America were warning Stalin’s Soviet government that Germany was planning a treacherous abandonment of its nonaggression pact and that invasion was imminent. Just how seriously these warnings were taken we will probably never know. What we do know is that on 22 June 1941 Hitler tore up the treaty and unleashed the might of the Wehrmacht upon the Soviet Union in Operation Barbarossa.
The price of immortality
A friend in need Britain, still standing alone against the Nazis (who by then occupied effectively all of Europe), found in Hitler’s treachery the silver lining of a new friend in her struggle for survival, and immediately prepared to send a convoy of aid. Seventy five years ago in August, the very first mission of the great Arctic convoy campaign left Liverpool, as 12 ships loaded with weapons and equipment sailed under the codename Operation Dervish. The convoy arrived, without loss, in Archangel on 31 August 1941 bringing with it not just equipment but also 500 men of RAF wing 151 and three squadrons of
With so many dangers so manifestly around us, our politicians would do well to look back and learn before going forward
Conservative estimates put the total number of Soviet casualties of Nazi aggression at 20 million; it may have been many millions more. Every family in Russia suffered losses; many were wiped out altogether, particularly those in the path of the invasion. One in 10 young men in Russia was lost, creating a demographic tragedy still felt all these years later. The scale of the human tragedy is impossible to comprehend in the modern world of instant news delivered with throwaway hyperbole. Last year, in a spontaneous demonstration of emotion, the people of Russia took to the streets across their vast country carrying photographs and placards with images of their lost family members. Starting in Siberia, the, movement “went viral”, to use the modern vernacular, quickly adopting the banner of “The Immortal Regiment”. The sight of hundreds of thousands of silent, dignified people holding aloft faded photographs of their loved ones pierces the heart every bit as much as the display of poppies around the Tower of London in memory of our lost British loved ones from the First World War.
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There is a noticeable element of déjà-vu in the present circumstances governing our relationship with Russia and those of 75 years ago, with international terrorism substituted for global fascism. The airdropped bomb may have been replaced by the suicide attack, but the insidious threat of sudden, violent death and disruption to life remains. Less certain is if any of our present leaders might respond with a Churchillian capacity to create friends in adversity and bridge the politics of the moment. The annual act of remembrance of a victory secured by Allied co-operation, is an apposite reminder that, in the words of Churchill, “To jaw-jaw is better than to warwar.”With so many dangers so manifestly around us, our politicians would do well to look back and learn before going forward.
Comrades courageous Away from the corridors of power, the mood is more convivial. This year, a dedicated band of people will bring together a shrinking number of veterans, mostly from the Arctic campaign, to celebrate together 71 years peace bought by them and their “immortal” comrades. Russians, Canadians, Jamaicans and British veterans will gather on board HMS Belfast one more time. As a rare mark of respect the ship’s big guns will thunder out a salute to these splendid old men, decorated with their hard won medals, and their memories that time will never fade. Politics will not be mentioned, the world as it is today with its fractious relationships and bickering over borders will be forgotten. The warmth and depth of friendship, so obviously displayed on these occasions, between these ordinary people called up 75 years ago to fight for a greater cause should be a mute example to those in power everywhere. Tim Lewin is an organiser and consultant for major financial, cultural and arts projects in Russia and Ukraine.
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Two households, both alike in dignity… From ancient grudge break to new mutiny…”Applying Shakespeare’s words from Romeo and Juliet to the current state of relations between London and Moscow wouldn’t be much of an exaggeration. Still, another poet, the Russian Sergei Yesenin, noted: “When face to face/We cannot see the face./We should step back for better observation”.And while we have stepped back politically, we now have a clearer vision of the mutual cultural attraction. With diplomatic and economic contacts stalled, we realise the importance of the humanitarian dimension, the people-to-people contacts that help us get over the adverse geopolitical weather. This year has seen the centenaries of First World War events that fostered mutual understanding, like the Anglo-Russian Hospital, Russian Flag Day or the trip of Russian writers to Britain. And, 100 years on, our governments have had the political foresight to declare 2016 a Russia-UK Year of Language and Literature. While the Russian programme in Britain officially started on 25 February, the grand opening of in Russia happened a few days ago, with the launch of a National Portrait Gallery exhibition at Moscow’s Tretyakov Gallery and coinciding with the Shakespearean anniversary. Meanwhile, the parallel exhibition of the Tretyakov Gallery at the NPG has been a huge hit from its start on 16 March, attracting up to 900 visitors a day. What is amazing is that the paintings now on display in London are not creations of the leaders of the Russian avant garde, who are well known in Britain, but rather of painters who, while household names in Russia, are only now being discovered in the UK – Repin, Perov, Serov and others – unlike those who sat for them, including Tolstoy, Dostoevsky, Chekhov, Tchaikovsky, Mussorgsky and Akhmatova. This is one of the main points this cultural season will make, i.e. to go beyond the canon to discover the riches of literature and art. This is why Russian writers come to the London Book Fair, both in print and in person, among them Andrei Gelasimov and Guzel Yakhina who have their novels translated into more than 10 languages. We aim to widen the horizons of the sophisticated British public on Russian literature old and contemporary, theatre, cinema, art and history. Obviously, we want to encourage more Britons to study Russian, which is already as popular at A-level as German but still below the Cold War numbers. Then, oddly enough, many people who started learning the language for reasons we’d rather forget ended up falling in love with the Russian culture and people. No introduction is needed for the Bolshoi Ballet (coming in July) or the Boris Eifman Ballet (December). The Tchaikovsky Symphony Orchestra will give concerts in virtually all of the major UK cities in October. It is refreshing to see new British takes on War and Peace on the BBC and Crime and Punishment at Open Air Theatre near Tower Bridge this August. Our world views, as reflected in our cultures, differ; but still, time and again, we feel like sharing each other’s. We are confident that the better we know each other, the better is the understanding. Over the past five centuries, Russia and Britain have been able to understand each other more often than one might think. There are many pages of common history to learn from, from Peter the Great to the Arctic convoys in the Second World War. Researching them is an important task for scholars and volunteers from the recently formed Russian Heritage in UK committee. With assets like these, there is no doubt that when the time comes, we’ll have an overall relationship that our two great nations, sitting together in many world councils, deserve.
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Culture THIS SUPPLEMENT IS SPONSORED BY ROSSIYSKAYA GAZETA_www.rbth.co.uk_Thursday 28 April 2016_P7
TV series Russian viewers divided by BBC’s new adaptation of Tolstoy epic but American actor’s portrayal of Pierre Bezukhov is praised NATALIA MASHINITSOVA SPECIAL TO RBTH
What did Russians think of the BBC’s latest version of War and Peace? The six-part series has not yet been shown on Russian television, but intrepid viewers have found ways to watch it online. With any attempt by foreigners to adapt what is considered to be the archetypal Russian novel is bound to be judged by the highest standards, RBTH takes a look at the response by Russian critics to the British-American co-production, writted by Andrew Davies and starring Paul Dano and Lily James.
Convincing characters “Their Pierre is really cool, but the rest of the protagonists are less distinctive. It looks like a nice, solid British series, just like numerous other productions adapted from English literary works,” says the film critic Denis Ruzaev. The American Dano’s Pierre Bezukhov impressed other critics, too. “Pierre is great, simply amazing. So is Hélène – we’ve all got used to seeing her as nothing but a marble statue, but here she’s much more interesting. Prince Vassily is also convincing,” says journalist Kirill Rogov. The luxurious sets and the gorgeous costumes were also a hit. “This is a highquality, beautiful and interesting series made lovingly by Brits who appreciate Russian culture. It’s the best British adaptation done involving Russians. The costumes and props are great – all the wagons, horse sleighs, carriages, the furniture, utensils, dishes... The attention to detail is striking,” writes film critic Roman Grigoriev. Russian writer Boris Akunin, who specialises in stylised detective stories set in the 19th century, praised the series: “Anyone who is still hesitating about whether to watch the British version of War and Peace,
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Critics cross swords over War and Peace
have no fear: I’ve checked. This is a sincere, and I would even say respectful adaptation, and surprisingly, it contains no squatdancing noblemen wielding balalaikas.”
Classic comparisons
Polished performers: Lily James and Aneurin Barnard as Natasha Rostova and Boris Drubetskoy in War & Peace
Other critics were less impressed. Many have drawn comparisons between the series and Sergei Bondarchuk’s Oscar-winning
adaptation of 1966. “The new series looks more like a run-of-the-mill, not exactly high-budget soap opera, rather than a meticulous attempt to adapt a classical Russian novel. And it is inferior to Bondarchuk’s War and Peace, as it lacks the latter’s reverent attitude to the text, great casting choices and empathy towards the protagonists,” writes Alexander Alekseyev in Rossiskaya Gazeta. Andrew Davies’s screenplay has also drawn some criticism. Alekseyev writes: “... [the screenwriter] decided that War and Peace needed some ‘additions’. He thought the relationship between the sister and brother of the Kuragin family as it was presented in the novel was ‘too understated and easily missed when reading for the first time’. That is why for greater effect, and one might even say to add more of a ‘pulp’ element, Davies boiled things down a bit.” Alekseyev also quoted Davies as saying: “This relationship is very important to understanding those characters and it has to be shown on the screen.” Many of Russia’s 1812 war buffs have also complained about alleged historical inaccuracies in the military orders and awards worn by some of the cast.
Curtain rises on Bolshoi of the future Dance Need for fresh ideas sees launch of new workshops at Russia’s premier ballet company
Ratmansky’s workshops closed when theatre management changed. But with Urin’s appointment as director, the idea was reborn.
Learning curve YANA ZHILYAYEVA
The Mariinsky Theatre organised its workshops four seasons ago, during the International Ballet Festival, and immediately gained substantial additions to its repertoire. Anton Pimonov’s Choreographic Game 3x3 was shown at the Mariinsky, on tour in Baden-Baden, and
SPECIAL TO RBTH
Moscow’s Bolshoi Theatre is hoping that by inviting young choreographers to join its new workshops, it will gain fresh ideas and inspiration for its productions. Sergei Filin, who was nearly blinded in an acid attack in 2013, is to head the new workshops after stepping down as the theatre’s artistic director. The Bolshoi's plans are focused on developing its own talents, as well as inviting stars of world ballet such as Wayne McGregor and Paul Lightfoot to help inject new vigour into its famous ballets. The Bolshoi director Vladimir Urin says that the best western choreographers will also be invited to teach, but has yet to announce names. Filin said that he was happy about the new project, but did not wish to comment in detail at this stage.“Let’s return to this subject some time later when there will be interesting projects,” he said.
learn how to choreograph, but a stage can be provided and an audience invited so that the choreographer can show his work. “And the reputation of theatres such as the Bolshoi and the Mariinsky helps attract attention to debutants; it influences young choreographers.” If the masters find an opportunity to watch and comment on the work of their younger colleagues, then the workshop will have reached one of its objectives.
in New York, and choreographer Vladimir Varnav subsequently received an offer from JeanChristophe Maillot to arrange a performance for the Monte Carlo ballet troupe. Maillot and Benjamin Millepied (the founder of the LA Dance Project, who at the time was dance director at the Paris Opera Ballet), had been sitting in the audience during workshop performances. Yuri Fateyev, acting ballet director at the Mariinsky Theatre, says: “It is impossible to
Modern moves: the Bolshoi hopes to bring in young choreographers and add new works to the repertoire
A serious lack of creative ideas and new approaches has long plagued the Bolshoi. Choreographer Alexei Ratmansky, who headed the theatre between 2004 and 2008, attempted to tackle it, inviting young choreographers to work with stars such as Andrei Merkuriev, Ekaterina Krysanova and Vladislav Lantratov. Prima ballerina Marianna Ryzhkina participated both as dancer and trainer. Among these new choreographers, critics noticed Ivan Urban, a dancer from the Hamburg Ballet, and Viacheslav Samodurov, a former principal dancer at the Royal Ballet and St Petersburg’s Mariinsky Theatre. Samodurov’s premiere Ondine is scheduled at the Bolshoi for 24 June this year.
VLADIMIR PESNYA/RIA NOVOSTI
Nurturing creativity
Wartime allies in harmony: when Britain and Russia shared a national anthem
role from the start. The Prayer of the Russians lasted throughout the rest of the reign of Alexander (which ended in 1825) and for the first seven years of that of his son, Nicholas I. However, in 1833 Nicholas initiated a major change in the ideology of the Russian Empire called Official Nationality, which included orthodoxy in religion, autocracy in government and Russian nationalism. With this ideology in mind, it was decided the national anthem should be “truly Russian” with Russian music as well as Russian words.
A matter of taste
History How ‘God Save the Queen’, learnt by troops in the campaign against Napoleon, was adopted by Alexander I SPECIAL TO RBTH
Vast as the Tsarist Russian Empire was, the multitudes spread from Warsaw in the west to Petropavlovsk in the east had no unifying national anthem before 1816. Some have claimed that Grom pobedy, razdavaysya! (Let the Thunder of Victory Sound!) was the first Russian anthem but it was never given official recognition. Part of the reason why Russia, and in particular Tsar Alexander I, felt that a national anthem was needed was because of the great military success Russia was enjoying at the time. Only four years earlier, French Emperor Napoleon and his invading Grande Armée had been hounded all the way from the walls of the Kremlin back to France.
Hymns of battle Tsar Alexander felt that the soldiers should return to Russia not only with victory but also with “evidence of the era”, in particular, culture and music. With this in mind, his troops came home with a selection of tunes from the winning coalition including God Save the Queen and the French royalist anthem Marche Henri IV. In the end, it was God Save the Queen that found its niche in Russian culture. The music was first performed in honour of Alexander I in Warsaw in 1816 and from that moment it was adopted as the Russian
VOSTOCK-PHOTO
THOMAS GILES
Calling the tune: Emperor Alexander I of Russia
national anthem. Russia was not unique in adopting the tune at the time: a total of 20 other countries also adopted it, including Sweden and Prussia. Vasily Zhukovsky, the Russian poet credited with introducing the Romantic movement to his home country, played a major role. But it was his translations rather than his poems that made him a household name in Russia. Zhukovsky translated from German and English so well that many considered his versions better than the original poems. The novelist Vladimir Nabokov said that Zhukovsky “belonged to the class of poets who verge on greatness but never quite attain that glory”. Zhukovsky wrote the lyrics to the new anthem. In 1815, in his journal Son of the Fatherland, he published a poem dedicated to Tsar Alexander I, The Prayer of the Russians. The following year Alexander Pushkin added two more stanzas. Despite being written two years earlier, it was not until 1818 that Zhukovsky’s work was finally adopted for the Russian anthem.
Same difference It was a period when Britain and Russia were co-operating closely following their joint defeat of Napoleon. However, God Save the Queen and The Prayer of the Russians do sound different. Musically, The Prayer of the Russians has a much more traditionally Russian sound and would have been sung in a very Orthodox style compared with the more orchestral British rendition. Only the first line of the lyrics is the same. However, The Prayer of the Russians was not designed as an anthem, but was a simple poem that grew into something more important. On the other hand, God Save the Queen had a royal
The man commissioned by Nicholas to write the new anthem was Alexei Lvov, whose musical tastes the Tsar trusted. Born in 1798 in modern-day Tallinn, Lvov was a violinist, conductor and composer who received a fine musical education in his family, playing in violin concerts at home aged seven and studying with many teachers. In 1818, he graduated from the Institute of Communications and worked as a railway engineer in military settlements. However, he never lost his love for the violin. Lvov travelled around Europe and made friends with composers such as Felix Mendelssohn, Giacomo Meyerbeer, Gaspare Spontini and Robert Schumann. He also wrote a musical history of the violin. In 1833, the new anthem of the Russian Empire was born in the form of God Save the Tsar with different music and words from The Prayer of the Russians. It is often said that God Save the Queen and therefore The Prayer of the Russians is more of a funeral march than a rousing piece of music. Perhaps the same can be said of God Save the Tsar but its music demands respect. Impressed by his earlier effort, the Russian royal family commissioned Zhukovsky to write the lyrics for the new anthem. This time the anthem was two very simple verses rather than a complete poem. Other than the first line of God Save the Tsar, the two sets of lyrics differ significantly, in style as well as words. God Save the Tsar condensed the long-winded The Prayer of the Russians into a more manageable song; perhaps this was the perfect method of demonstrating Nicholas I’s idea of Official Nationality in a way the peasants could understand. Although the British-influenced The Prayer of the Russians did not last long, it encapsulates the close ties between Britain and Russia at this point in history.
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Russia find their spirit again for ‘battle of Britain’
THE NUMBERS
10
– the current position of the English national team in the Fifa rankings.
27
– the current position of the Russian national team in the Fifa rankings.
Euro 2016 A new manager and an impressive qualifying campaign have raised expectations for the national team, who face England and Wales in France. RBTH looks at some of the key talking points ahead of the action this summer ANDY POTTS SPECIAL TO RBTH
This time last year, Russia fans were pessimistic. Under the guidance of Fabio Capello, the team was limping through its qualifying group with some uninspiring football and shocking results. Aside from a 4-0 win over lowly Liechtenstein (aided by two own goals and a penalty) and a technical victory in Montenegro awarded after crowd trouble stopped play in Podgorica, Russia had not won a competitive fixture in 10 attempts dating back to before the 2014 World Cup. But when the Italian (whose low-key approach was no more popular in Russia than it had been in England) was replaced by Leonid Slutsky, everything changed. Slutsky, a young coach who had piled up the trophies after taking charge at CSKA, made no profound changes to the playing staff: Russia’s talent pool is not so large that the coach has a wealth of options to choose from. But he immediately galvanised his team into action and shook the fans from their lethargy. A 1-0 win over Sweden in a vital showdown before a sellout crowd in Moscow in early September set the tone. Russia weren’t always pretty to watch, but they were showing spirit and fight once again. Slutsky wrapped up the qualifying phase with four consecutive wins, beating the Swedes to the second qualification spot and restoring some pride in the team.
Russian talent A combination of experienced defence and a fresh creativity up front could be clicking into
gear at the right time, with CSKA Moscow playmaker Alan Dzagoyev providing the ammunition for Zenit St Petersburg forwards Artem Dzyuba and Alexander Kokorin. These players, along with Zenit pair Igor Smolnikov and Oleg Shatov, could be the next to attract covetous eyes from Europe’s top leagues with a strong performance on the international stage. There are shades of Euro 2008. Then, Russia crept into the finals under the radar when a famous win over England was combined with some stuttering performances in places such as Israel. Guus Hiddink’s squad was the dark horse, unheralded until it galloped into the semi-finals in thrilling fashion. Along the way, the likes of Andrey Arshavin, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Yuri Zhirkov earned high-profile moves to the Premier League. Now Dzyuba, who was Russia’s leading scorer in qualifying, believes that the same could happen again. After the team’s recent 4-2 defeat in a friendly match in Paris, he told Nash Futbol TV: “The French showed real class, but we learnt a lot. In any event, we showed that we can play against them. Maybe they were a bit faster, a bit more skilful, but we gave them a game. After we hammered Italy on the way to Euro 2012, everyone was shouting about how we could beat anyone. Now we understand that we’re not going there as favourites, but we could be a strong outsider.” Sometimes it feels like there is greater excitement about English football in Russia than there is about the domestic game. When the free-to-air TV channel Rossiya-2 had the rights to Premier League football in 2010-11, it was advertised as“The Motherland of Football”and
4
– the number of times Russia (or the Soviet Union) has faced England in the Euros, with two wins each.
Welsh riddle
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All to play for: from the top, Russia’s Artem Dzyuba celebrates scoring from the penalty spot in a Euro 2016 Group G qualifying match against Moldova in Moscow; a Russia fan signals her approval; England goalkeeper Fraser Forster in action; a young England supporter goes in for a spot of face painting ahead of an international match at Wembley
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The Lancashire lad who became a star for the Tsar Football history How Billy Charnock went to work at a mill near Moscow and led the national side to its first victory THOMAS NOLL SPECIAL TO RBTH
Long before Andrey Kanchelskis played for Manchester United, or Andrey Arshavin for Arsenal, a star of the British amateur game had brought his footballing skills to Russia. Few now remember the story of Billy Charnock, engineer and amateur sportsman, but his remarkable journey took him from Durham University to wearing the captain’s armband as Russia’s representative football team claimed its first international victory. Charnock was a keen sportsman in his
university days, gaining his palatinate, Durham’s equivalent of an Oxbridge blue, for football in the 1904-05 season. He also played for Bishop Auckland, fledgling legends of the amateur game, helping the Co Durham team to become the Northern League’s amateur champions in 1906. Indeeed, Charnock scored the equaliser against Sunderland A in a play-off at St James’s Park, Newcastle, forcing the 1-1 draw that persuaded the league management to hail the Red and Whites as professional champions and the Two Blues as the amateur kings. He was also part of that year’s FA Amateur Cup final line-up. But his destiny lay far from those northern pitches. Armed with a diploma in electrical and mechanical engineering from Armstrong College, then part of Durham University, he headed to Russia where several other members of the extended Charnock family
the channel called its version of Match of the Day “Her Majesty’s Football”.Viewing figures for top English teams often outstrip their Russian counterparts and there’s a special frisson around games between English and Russian sides, whether at club or international level. Mikhail Starov, one of the organisers of Moscow Reds, the Russian branch of the Manchester United Supporters’ Club, follows the game closely in both countries and is looking forward to the meeting of the two sides in Marseille. “Lots of fans from Russia are planning to go and, so far as I know, we have sold all the tickets in the Russian end for the group games,” he told RBTH. “I hope that English and Welsh fans will do the same and we can all look forward to a great occasion.” There is some similarity between England’s prospects and Russia’s. England are introducing a new generation of players, just as Russia’s Euro 2008 generation hands over to the players who will lead the challenge at the home World Cup in 2018. And England’s mixed results in recent friendlies – victory in Germany, a defeat at home to the Netherlands – swiftly raised and dampened expectations. Mr Starov anticipates a draw: “England are picking up again. A lot of players have retired but are being replaced by talented young Lions. Russia vs England should be a fast-paced game, good to watch and with both teams scoring.”
Armed with a diploma in engineering, he headed to Russia where members of the family worked in fabric mills
worked in the fabric mills of OrekhovoZuevo, 50 miles east of Moscow. The Charnocks hailed from Lancashire, which was another hotbed of soccer’s early development, and brought their love of the game to Russia with them. When Gary Charnock took over as mill manager in 1893 and advertised back in England for more staff to join him, he demanded football skills as well as engineering experience. The works team, known as OKS, played in the blue-and-white colours of Blackburn Rovers, the Charnocks’ local team in England, and eventually became one of the heavyweights of the Moscow football championship. By the time Billy followed in his uncle’s footsteps, the game was attracting Russian players as well as British expatriates. Before long there was international competition: in 1910, Billy Charnock represented a Moscow League XI
OKS became a sports club for the Soviet secret police, gaining global fame as Dynamo Moscow
At this level, the Welsh are an unknown quantity. The last time the team reached a major championship was back in 1958. But under Chris Coleman, the team has harnessed the unique talent of Gareth Bale – a truly worldclass player – to end more than 60 years of waiting for a return to the top. While the Real Madrid winger is the standout player for his country – and should be one of the best players in France this summer – the rest of the Welsh team holds little fear for Russia, according to Mr Starov. But he is not expecting a great game of football in Toulouse as the group stage comes to an end. “Bale has proved himself as a great player, but I don’t think we’ll see an exciting game,” he added. “It’s going to be a tough battle and probably one goal will settle it.” For Wales, though, the game is a revenge mission. In 2003, victory over Russia in a play-off would have sent the team, spearheaded by Ryan Giggs, to Euro 2004. An aggressive first leg in Moscow finished goalless, with a running battle between Giggs and Vadim Evseev enraging Welsh fans. Evseev had the last laugh: the fullback headed a rare goal to win the second leg in Cardiff. Russia progressed, with Wales once again left contemplating a shattered dream.
(with just two Russians in the team) against Corinthians, a touring team from Bohemia. By 1913 the balance had shifted, and Charnock, now captain, was one of just two expat players involved in a historic 3-0 victory over Norway in Moscow on 7 September. Billy, who was also known by the Russified name of Vasily, played at centre-half, the pivotal role in the heart of midfield in the old 2-3-5 formation of that era. His contribution got a rave review from Futbolist magazine, which wrote: “He only adopted this position very recently but commends himself as a good player, possessed of an amazing facility to move the ball forwards. He has a strong shot and passes the ball perfectly to the forwards, especially the wingers. Moscow has never seen a better central midfielder.” When, in 1917, the Revolution forced the Charnocks to flee Moscow, Billy settled in Leek, Staffordshire. OKS became a sports club for the Soviet secret police, gaining global fame as Dynamo Moscow, and still plays in those Blackburn-inspired blue-and-white kits.