Economic Outlook: Fall 2012

Page 82

STEEL MARKET OVERVIEW Steel market update > World crude steel production for the first half of 2012 was 766.9 million tons, which was 0.9 percent higher than the same period in 2011. North America and China showed increased production (8.4 percent and 1.8 percent, respectively), while the EU and South America decreased production (to -4.6 percent and -3.5 percent, respectively).1 > Global (the 62 countries reporting to the World Steel Organization) crude steel production was 128 million tons in June 2012, a decrease of minus 0.1 percent compared to June 2011.2 The U.S. produced 7.3 million tons of crude steel in June 2012, an increase of 0.8 percent compared to June 2011, while China’s crude steel production for June 2012 was 60.2 million tons, up 0.6 percent compared to June 2011.3, 4 In the European Union, Germany’s production decreased 4 percent (to 3.7 million tons) from June 2011 to June 2012. Italy’s production decreased 7.9 percent (to 2.4 million tons), while Spain’s decreased 8.8 percent (to 1.3 million tons) in June 2012.5 > The world's largest steelmaker by volume, ArcelorMittal, lowered its global steel demand forecast to indicate growth of 3.5 percent to 4 percent, down from an earlier prediction of 4 percent to 4.5 percent. Lower forecasts can be attributed to slower growth in China and contracting demand in the European Union, where the debt crisis

82

| COMMODITI E S OVE RVI EW ©2012 by Premier Inc. All rights reserved.

Product categories with high steel content and 12-month price outlook Surgical instruments Standard and safety hypodermics Spinal implants and related products Orthopedic total joint implants Steam sterilizers Price increase risk: ■ High

continues to take its toll on regional economies and consumer sentiment.6 > ArcelorMittal expects China’s steel demand to grow 4.5 percent to 5 percent in 2012; previous forecasts predicted 5 percent demand growth. EU steel demand is expected to decrease between 3 percent and 5 percent in 2012 compared to previous forecasts of a 1 percent to 2 percent decline.7 > The World Steel Association (WSA) lowered its 2012 forecast to a 3.6

■ Moderate

■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Low

percent increase (1,422 million tons) from an earlier prediction of 5.4 percent, citing slackening growth in China.8 The WSA expects global demand to accelerate to 4.5 percent in 2013.9 > U.S. steel use is forecast to grow 5.7 percent in 2012 and 5.6 percent in 2013, approximately 92 percent of the 2007 level.10 > Steel prices have risen 13.3 percent from 2010 to 2011 but are expected to have decreased to 5.1 percent in the first half of 2012.11


Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.