E C O N O M I C S ECONOMIC O U T LO O K
A conversation with Lee Stafford
managing director, economics and research, Ally Financial
Lee Stafford joined Ally Financial in 2009 as a managing director and established the company’s global economics and research function, Ally Economics & Research. In this role, he and his team are responsible for providing economic and industry research support throughout the organization. Before joining Ally Financial, he spent nine years at Bank of America.
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What is your estimate for GDP growth in the next 12 months?
Our expectation is that GDP will average approximately 2 percent over the next 12 months. This pace of growth is slower than average growth rates during past economic expansions but very similar to what we saw in 2011. Looking more broadly at the global economy, much of the eurozone is contracting, and China’s growth, which was more than 10 percent in 2010, has slowed to 7.6 percent
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in the latest quarter. Although China is still growing quite markedly, the slowdown from 10 percent to 7.6 percent has been felt globally and has been reflected in the U.S. We are also very cautious about growth predictions for late 2012 and early 2013 because of federal spending cuts and tax changes slated to take effect in January. This “fiscal cliff,” as it is called, would mean a much weaker economy in 2013. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a decline of approximately minus 1 percent in early 2013 and a recovery in the second half of 2013.