The Challenges of Energy Transition - in Vi?t Nam and in Southeast Asia by Agence Française de Développement

The Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS), Agence Française de Développement (AFD), Global Development Network (GDN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), École française d’Extrême-Orient (ÉFEO), Université of Nantes, Agricultural Research for Developement (CIRAD) and Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie (AUF) have decided to give their support to the Regional Social Sciences Summer University, referred to as “Tam Đảo”, in the framework of partnership agreement. This partnership has the objectives of developing a multi-disciplinary training of excellence, creating a platform for debate, and attracting a wide academic and non-academic audience from across Southeast Asia. This work contains a verbatim account of the presentations and debates from 8th to 16th July 2016 at the University of Duy Tân (Đà Nẵng) on the topic of energy transition. Four main areas of reflection are prioritised in the framework of the thematic workshop: (i) Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition; (ii) Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sector; (iii) The Use of Computer Models for Support in Energy Prospective and Accompanying Transition Policies; (iv) Training for Field Inquiries. Biogas Programmes in the rural Communes of the Rural District of Hoà Vang, Đà Nẵng Province (Việt Nam).

ISBN: 978-604-943-808-0

786049 438080

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Collective Work

KNOWLEDGE PUBLISHING HOUSE

COLLECTIVE WORK

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Scientific Coordinator Stéphane LAGRÉE École française d’Extrême-Orient, ÉFEO

KNOWLEDGE PUBLISHING HOUSE

The Etudes de l’AFD series includes studies and research supported and coordinated by Agence Française de Développement. It promotes the diffusion of knowledge gathered from both in-the-field experience and academic work. The papers are systematically submitted for approval to an editorial committee that draws on the opinions of anonymous experts.

All our publications are available at http://editions.afd.fr/

DISCLAIMER The analyses and conclusions presented in this document are the responsibility of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the position of AFD or its partner institutions.

Publications Director: Rémy Rioux Editorial Director: Gaël Giraud Designed and produced by: Tomorrow Media Co., Ltd. - tomorrowmedia@gmail.com Printed by: Tomorrow Media Co., Ltd.

Summary Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Part 1. Plenary Sessions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 1.1. Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity, Gaël Giraud . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 1.2. Energy Transition and Territories, Sébastien Velut . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 1.3. Energy, Power and Society: Anthropological Approaches, Pierre-Yves Le Meur . . . . . . . . . . 55 1.4. The Challenges of Bioenergy Transition in Developing Countries, Laurent Gazull . . . . . . . . 71 1.5. Synthesis of Plenary Sessions. Complexity and Energy Transition, Alexis Drogoul . . . . . . . . 85

Part 2. Workshops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 2.1. Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition, Johanna Lees, Sébastien Velut . . . . . . . . . 95 2.2. Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors, Hélène Dessard, Denis Gautier, Laurent Gazull . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 2.3. Training for Field Inquiries. Biogas Programmes in the rural Communes of the Rural District of Hoà Vang, Đà Nẵng Province (Việt Nam), Pierre-Yves Le Meur, Emmanuel Pannier, Olivier Tessier . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165 Biographies of Speakers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 Acronyms and Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 211

Foreword The “JTD” model is founded on ten years of capitalization (2007-2016) in the domain of methodological capacity building in social sciences and the structuring of operational and research networks. Although the foundation of their development is Vietnamese, the platform of training and exchange has widened to include three other countries (Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar) and, since July 2015, Madagascar – see online publications and audio-visual modules on the website http://www.tamdaoconf.com and http://www.tamdaoconf.com/tam-dao-mada/ “Tam Đảo Days” (JTD) fall within a multidisciplinary approach and crosscut the inputs from different social science disciplines (economics, statistics, socio-anthropology, history, geography, political sciences, etc.). The topics developed on an annual basis are organised around the development goals of the Sustainable development programme for 2030. A specific topic, with a regional or international dimension, is identified in order to allow the participants to improve their knowledge and get acquainted with the approaches, tools and methods of analysis that are used by social science researchers. As well as the training given, the model constitutes a platform for debate around a given crosscutting topic and the policies that are related to this topic. The training is organised/developed in two complementary stages: • The first two days, in the form of plenary sessions are wrapped up with a summary of all the presentations. This last session allows us to open up reflection by questioning the proposed methodological tools, it also serves as an introduction to the proposed “closed-door” workshops. • In order to preserve a strong group dynamic, the trainees are divided into four topical and multidisciplinary workshops over five days. Each workshop is made up of twenty or so participants; the ratio of trainers to trainees is high, with between three and six trainers per workshop. Group work and the development of a “mini-project” surrounding the workshop’s topic constitute a central role on this training for research through research. • At the end of the week, the trainers and trainees get together in the framework of a day dedicated to pooling the results of analysis and sharing the findings of each workshop. Two trainees from each workshop are asked to explain the principal conclusions of the week and the methodological tools developed.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

A Platform that Reflects Partnership Synergy “Global Development Network” (GDN) 2015 and 2016: consolidation and openings to other international networks The regional/international dimension was to be consolidated in order to widen scientific networking. The recognition of the JTD at the time of the GDN call for candidatures “Capacity building in the least developed countries” has today allowed us, in close collaboration with the Royal University of Law and Economics, Cambodia (RULE), to broaden the influence and scope of the training that was initially proposed in Việt Nam:

• consolidation in Cambodia and Laos;

• extension to Myanmar and Madagascar;

• Increased visibility thanks to the placing online of communication modules in 2015 (institutional, trainers and trainees) and the filming of the plenary sessions in 2016 – site web: www. tamdaoconf.com.

The geographical diversity and the growing number of applications registered are testimony to both the relevance of the model and its capacity to meet the expectations of a varied audience: university lecturers, practitioners and institutions that support political decision-making. After ten years of existence, the JTD have been recognised as a veritable source of know-how in terms of capacity building and networking. A new cooperation agreement for the 2016-2018 period was signed in the first trimester of 2016; it associates the Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD) to the JTD’s historic partners. Likewise, the Laboratoire d’économie et de management Nantes-Atlantique (LEMNA) signed with GASS a three-year cooperation convention in order to increase its visibility within the JTD.

Impact and sustainability The JTD produce scientific knowledge and competences that contribute to scientific renewal. Multidisciplinary practice is real, in an educational format that favours adequate understanding about different approaches for researchers. The JTD thus play a part in the awareness of social and human sciences as a disciplinary sector that is increasingly recognised by the scientific community and decision makers. The expected effect is an optimising of inputs, as much in terms of new knowledge as in the discovery of different methods and approaches to human and social sciences. The emphasis placed on organisation, the preparation of the speakers, their availability and the trainer to trainee ratio are all levers that contribute to a positive appreciation from the trainees. Special attention is paid to the theory/practice balance that lies at the heart of the programming.

Foreword The JTD propose a way of working that may lead to a broader effect, over a period of some years. They enable the development of complementary or more in-depth training needs. The mixed selection of trainees, academics and development practitioners offers the potential for network creation. The training provides the trainees with a real possibility to express themselves – debate in the plenary sessions, group work in the workshops, exchange/debate in the evenings, summing up and feedback by the trainees on the last day, etc. Beyond the learning, the modules taught are reused in the different structures and institutions of the participating countries/structures; the JTD thus play a role in the training of trainers.

An Annual Scientific Production Ever since their conception, the JTD are committed to publishing, within one year, the content of the Days’ proceedings in its entirety. The publications are trilingual (Vietnamese, French and English) and form part of the AFD’s Conférences et Séminaires collection (2010 to 2015) then Études de l’AFD (since 2016) in co-publication with the ÉFEO and Tri Thức. The publications are downloadable free of charge on the sites of the JTD (www.tamdaoconf.com) and other associated partners. The proceedings constitute the JTD’s most visible production of knowledge; they are an accurate reflection of their content and an essential reference work for those who wish to know about their content and process. The work may be likened to a social science manual. The scientific methods and approaches that it presents are examples and reference points for researchers, teachers and development practitioners. The proceedings are a source of research tools, of which some are directly applicable; in this way, they are a reflection of the JTD’s unique way of producing scientific knowledge and making use of the social sciences to favour development.

“The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia” The guiding theme of the 2016 JTD was to take a look at the challenges of energy transition through the prism of economic, human and social sciences; in accordance with the logical framework, this tenth edition was organised according to two complementary axes: • two days’ of training in plenary sessions (simultaneous interpretation) 8th and 9th July. Five presentations introduced and developed from a methodological and multidisciplinary angle the issues linked to the challenges of energy transition in Việt Nam and Southeast Asia. The plenary sessions were wrapped up with a summary of the two days of presentations; • four five-day workshops, from Monday 11th to Friday 15th (consecutive interpretation), which focused on tools for a local approach to energy transition (workshop 1), tools for the analysis of the biomass-energy sectors (workshop 2), the use of computer models for support in energy prospective and accompanying transition policies (workshop 3), training for field inquiries. Biogas programmes in two rural communes in the province of Danang (workshop 4). The

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia training course concluded with a workshop feedback session presented by the trainees, Saturday 16th July. By way of an introduction, Gaël Giraud, chief economist at the Agence Française de Développement, proposed a presentation entitled “Energy, climate and prosperity”. Energy transition involves the options of society that require democratic discussion and political choices. It is important that economists incorporate effectively and seriously ecological, energy and climate issues into their models. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is striving to do this but the difficulties that it has run into show that the community of economists has great difficulty in establishing a dialogue with the community of climatologists. In the early afternoon, our attention turned to elements for understanding energy transition and new territorial prospectives, with the presentation by Sébastien Velut, a professor in geography at the Institut des Hautes Études de l’Amérique Latine (Sorbonne Nouvelle) and assistant director for international relations at the Sorbonne university, Paris Cité. Sébastien Velut insists on the fact that energy transition is not uniquely, nor even principally, a technical problem, but indeed a social issue in its various aspects. If we do not consider energy transition as an inevitable future linked to the deployment of increasingly performing technological solutions, but indeed as a process of social change that implements modes of production and consumption, but also values and ways of organising territories, we must reconsider the way in which the issue of energies is understood in different socio-economic contexts. This leads us to call into question a certain number of fundamental notions, which are taken for granted, and notably the trend towards increasing concentration linked to economies of scale, the growing weight of the big market stakeholders and state structures in relation to a trend towards the decentralising of production and decision-making. In order to envisage this change in point of view, it is necessary to introduce into debates about energy a different viewpoint. In order to succeed in doing this, the speaker insists on the way in which addressing the issue via territories at various levels is essential for understanding the challenges of energy transition, whether it be the understanding of public policies, the organisation of markets or new ways of producing and consuming energy. The day was concluded with a presentation by Pierre-Yves Le Meur, an anthropologist and research director at the IRD. The presentation begins with a historical detour in order to examine the way in which anthropology has been addressing the energy issue for more than a century. Two different approaches can be discerned. The first, which falls within the domain of the techniques of anthropology and material culture, is part of a classically holistic vision of anthropology and focuses upon the study of “exotic” and small-sized societies. The energy issue appears as a dimension of a project concerning the global understanding of the society studied, without being the subject of any specific problematisation. The second addresses energy using an evolutionary model and seeks to highlight a correlation between energy issues and cultural evolution. The newfound interest of anthropologists in energy, which was linked to the nuclear issue and the oil crisis, emerged in the 1970s and already raised questions about energy transition and renewable energies.

Foreword Over the last ten years we have observed a multitude of studies in social sciences and particularly in anthropology concerning energy issues. This recent proliferation is the subject of the second half of the presentation and its objective is to identify the lines of force of this literature. We can distinguish (i) an axis that focuses on energy consumption practices that are linked to transformations in lifestyles and domestic relationships; (ii) an axis that focuses upon energy policies at various levels and the conflicts associated with them, which may concern access to energy resources and their control, or the choices made between energy options. The anthropological approach that is common to these two axes allows us to identify and analyse the roles of stakeholders, power relations and the plurality of know-how and norms that structure energy issues all along the chain that goes from production – and therefore negotiations concerning energy choices – to consumption and impact management, not to mention forms of regulation, modes of governance and the controversies surrounding energy issues. Finally, the third part addresses some specific examples in Southeast Asia. The examples of hydroelectric power on the Mekong and oil in East Timor allow us to particularly highlight the environmental, economic and geopolitical challenges that cross cut the energy issue and the way in which they are broken down and interact at various levels. The second day begins with a presentation by Laurent Gazull, a geographer at the University Paris 7 and researcher at CIRAD working on energy transition and the use of biomass energy. In developing countries, the principal challenges of energy transition are neither the reduction of fossil energies nor the reduction of consumption, but rather the improvement of the energy efficiency of current systems using biomass, the increase in the offer of renewable energies, the development of productive energy services in the rural environment and access to electricity for all. The main characteristic of biomass-based energy systems is that they necessitate the creation of upstream supply and production networks. Consequently, although energy transition involves major behavioural and technical changes in methods of energy conversion and consumption, in the domain of bio-energies, it also involves changes in methods of agricultural and forest production. The presentation first describes the current state of play in southern countries – Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia – and outlines development trends. Then, Laurent Gazull reminds us of the key determinants of these developments: energy, industrial or agricultural policies, the fight against climate change, industrial and market logics. Finally, he shows the challenges of transition in terms of changes in systems of production, conversion and consumption before finally highlighting the debates and controversies that this sector continues to generate. The last lecture concerns the multi-player management of energy systems and the integration of renewable energy with multi-agent systems, it was given by Alexis Drogoul, a computer scientist and research director at the IRD. The lecturer presents (i) the general framework of modelling for the management of large electrical systems (ii) solutions based upon a multi-agent approach in order to understand the multi-player nature of these systems and facilitate the inclusion and integration of distributed production sources based on renewable energies.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Finally, Alexis Drogoul winds up these two days of presentations and exchanges with a critical conclusion. The training continues from Monday 11th to Friday 15th July in the framework of topical workshops at Duy Tan University. The workshop “Tools for a local approach to energy transition” is centred on thematic sessions that provide the tools to address the issue of energy transition in its various contexts. Each session corresponds to the presentation of a specific methodological tool and involves the presentations of trainees using texts linked to the topic and tool of the session. The presentations contribute to the final presentation of a summary. The sessions are organised in function of the following topics: • What is energy transition? • Conflicts of use, the case of the Mekong. • The articulation of scales in an approach to energy insecurity. • Technical and social networks. • Environmental inequalities, health, mobilisations. • The territory, an analysis category. What is the purpose of maps? The main characteristic of biomass-based energy systems is that they necessitate the creation of biomass supply sectors. Before it is transformed into energy, biomass must be produced, harvested or collected, often pre-packaged, then transported to transformation units. These supply chains may have local, national or international dimensions. They offer great potential in terms of revenue and employment, particularly in rural areas. They may nevertheless have major impacts in terms of land occupation, competition with other existing sectors, forestry, pastoral and agricultural practices, and on the environment. This second workshop “Tools for the analysis of biomass energy sectors” identifies these potential impacts and offers tools that will allow us to study and organise supply chains at a local level. The week is organised into four half-day sessions and a feedback/ summary session. Each half-day is devoted to exposés and theoretical studies; trainers and trainees develop, over half a day, participatory workshops for case studies, role plays, document analysis, prospective construction, etc. • Session 1. Systemic analysis of a territory and a sector. • Session 2. Systemic approach to innovations: the innovation system. • Session 3. Participatory tools for the analysis of a biomass supply chain: participant observation, simulation models, role-plays. • Session 4. Prospective. • Session 5. Summary, debates and feedback.

Foreword Representing a real system, such as a city, in all its complexity so as to measure its possible developments or conceive the development solutions that are adapted to it, is one of the challenges of current research in computer modelling, particularly in agent-based modelling. This approach, which is complementary to classical analytical methods, allows us to conceive, in an incremental way, models whose dynamic is the resultant of the interactions between the computer representations of entities (players, institutions, environment) in the modelled system. These models are then used to support a “virtual” experimental process (that requires the use of simulation) where the resulting dynamics may be studied using all the necessary details, and where interaction with the user is encouraged. This third workshop entitled: “the use of computer models for support in energy prospective and accompanying transition policies” is organised around the Gis and Agent-Based Modelling Architecture (GAMA) and a tutorial that requires the trainees to conceive an energy-transition policy for a medium-sized city. The objective is (i) to discover and understand via the conception of models of increasing complexity and the inclusion of various economic and climatic scenarios, the political challenges of energy transition at a local scale; (ii) to use these models as a basis for proposing, testing and comparing realistic strategies concerning the production, distribution and consumption of electricity[1]. The objective of the last workshop: “Training for field inquiries. Biogas programmes in two rural communes in the rural district of Hoa Vang, Danang province” is to familiarise the trainees with the tools and methods of qualitative research in social sciences through the conception and implementation of a field inquiry. During the week, the principal stages of a scientific process are addressed: elaboration of a problematic, construction of the study topic, identification of hypotheses and research axes, gathering of data, classification and analysis. The particularity of the training lies in its educational dimension that is of an experimental nature: training through the practice of field inquiries, by placing the trainee in a context where he is an actor in the learning process. In the end, through its implication in an in situ study, the module creates the adequate conditions for the acquisition of the practical bases for a qualitative socio-anthropological approach, by moving back and forth between theoretical concepts and methods on the one hand, and the technical competences of the field researcher on the other. The workshop is organised into three sub-sections: (i) introduction of the techniques and methods of field inquiries; (ii) practical application involving the preparation and implementation of a threeday field inquiry mobilising classical methods of production (observations, impregnation, written sources, interviews, survey procedures, etc.); (iii) processing and interpretation of gathered data. On this basis, the workshop terminates with an oral presentation of the method used and the principal results.

[1] The particularly complex character of the topic developed in this workshop has led us – in agreement with Alexis Drogoul, who was in charge of the training – to not include this chapter in the framework of this publication. Readers are invited to refer to past JTD publications in order to familiarise themselves with the contributions of applied modelling to social sciences. This workshop was facilitated by the following trainer: Alexis Drogoul, Benoît Gaudou, Patrick Taillandier, Julien Mazars, Hypatia Nassopoulos and Damien Philippon.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Principal characteristics of the topical workshops organised during the 2016 JTD Workshops

Scales/ level of analysis

Disciplines

Tools / methods

Multi-level scale

Geography, sociology, anthropology, development, urbanisation, environment

Case studies, conflicts of use

-2Tools for analysing biomass energy sectors

Territories, cities

Geography, agronomy, social and economic sciences

Systemic analysis, Supply sectors, systems of innovation, role-plays

-3Use of computer models for support in energy prospective and accompanying transition policies.

Cities

Modelling, geography, computer sciences, urbanisation

Gama modelling platform, group work

-4Training for field inquiries. Biogas programmes in two rural communes in the rural district of Hoà Vang, province of Đà Nẵng.

Local scale: communes, and villages. Unit of analysis: Inquiries with households and individuals

Socio-anthropology, economics

Qualitative interviews, biographies

-1Tools for a local approach to energy transition

The four workshops were conceived to welcome participants from different disciplines, the priority being to allow all to mobilise the most open as possible tools and approaches. This desire for a crosscutting view from a multidisciplinary angle crystallised on the last day of feedback and summary, Saturday 16th July. In keeping with the JTD tradition, a certificate of participation signed by GASS, the AFD, the IRD, the ÉFEO and the CIRAD was awarded to each trainee at the end of the session.

Profiles of trainees There were more than 300 applications to participate in this tenth edition; eighty candidates were accepted including two guest listeners. The registration forms of the selected trainees allow us to draw the following profile: − a majority of women: 59% of the trainees; − a mature public with relatively younger trainees in the workshops devoted to modelling and field inquiries (respectively 55% and 65% younger than 30 years old):

Foreword By workshop (in % of numbers): Workshop 1

Workshop 2

Workshop 3

Workshop 4

20-25 years

22%

10%

15%

10%

26-30 years

28%

33%

40%

55%

31-35 years

33%

38%

30%

+ 36 years

17%

19%

15%

− a diversity of status and levels of education: master’s, master’s and lecturer, master’s and development, Ph.D. students, Ph.D./doctoral student and lecturer, researcher, researcher and teacher, researcher and lecturer, lecturer and development, development practitioner; − a high-level of multidisciplinarity: economics (agricultural, international, development, labour); urbanism; urban planning; agronomy; anthropology; sociology; law; education; environment; geography, management (public, administrative); modelling; political sciences; − a wide geographical diversity of candidates selected in Việt Nam, provinces of: An Giang, Bạc Liêu, Cần Thơ, Đà Nẵng, Hà Nội, Gia Lai, Huế, Hồ Chí Minh, Nha Trang, Thái Nguyên, Quảng Bình, Quy Nhơn; − regional/international openness: Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Madagascar, Democratic Republic of Congo; − institutional pluralism: • Việt Nam: VASS training institutes (Hà Nội, central and southern Việt Nam), Hà Nội University of Social Sciences, école supérieure of foreign trade, Hà Nội University of Science and Technology, University of Thái Nguyên, University Okayama- Huế, Duy Tân University, Hồ Chí Minh City University of Science and Technology, Hồ Chí Minh City University of Social and Human Sciences, Thủ Dầu Một University, University of Water Resources, Tôn Đức Thắng University, Hà Nội and Hồ Chí Minh City Universities of Natural Resources and the Environment, Hồ Chí Minh City University of Agriculture and Forestry, Centre of Research into Technology and the Environment, Centre for Social Research and Development (CSRD), International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT), Vietnam German University, Hồ Chí Minh City University of Economics, University of Quảng Bình, University of An Giang, University of Quy Nhơn, University of Cần Thơ; • Myanmar: University of Mandalay (department of French), Chamber of Commerce, Ministry of Planning and Finance; • Cambodia: Royal University of Law and Economics; general tax department; National institute of Social Affairs; Royal school of solicitors; • Laos: science and environment faculty; literature faculty; laboratory of social and political change; • Madagascar: Institute for energy mastery; NGO.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Finally, at the time of writing, we are delighted to announce that the 11th edition of the JTD will be held at the University of Cần Thơ, in the heart of the Mekong Delta, and will deal with the topic of “Rivers and deltas in Southeast Asia” (7-15th July 2017). Stéphane Lagrée Head of the Francophone Cooperation Unit GASS-ASSV

Acknowledgements The institutional synergy that was sealed by a partnership agreement in 2010 has given “Tam Đảo Days” a regional influence in Southeast Asia and beyond. We should like to thank: the training Institute at the Việt Nam Academy of Social Sciences (GASS-ASSV), Agence Française de Développement (AFD) – Studies, Research and Knowledge Department, Global Development Network (GDN), the École française d’Extrême-Orient (ÉFEO), the Institut de recherche pour le développement (IRD) – direction des Programmes de recherche et de la formation au Sud, the University of Nantes and the Laboratoire d’économie et de management de Nantes-Atlantique (LEMNA), the Agence universitaire de la francophonie (AUF) as well as the Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD). This publication owes a great deal to the recommendations of Sophie Chauvin, and it is important for us here to thank the AFD’s Knowledge Management and Dissemination Division for the high quality of our exchanges. We offer all our gratitude to the team of trainers for the scientific and educational qualities they have shown during the organisation, the realisation and also the continued development of these JTD: Hélène Dessard, Alexis Drogoul, Benoît Gaudou, Denis Gautier, Laurent Gazull, Javier Gil Quijano, Gaël Giraud, Pierre-Yves Le Meur, Johanna Lees, Julien Mazars, Hypatia Nassopoulos, Emmanuel Pannier, Damien Philippon, Patrick Taillandier, Olivier Tessier and Sébastien Velut. Transcription work is a particularly long and challenging exercise and we should here like to thank for their efforts and the quality of work: Glenn Pian-Villemain, workshop 1, teacher of French and Latin at Alexandre Yersin High School Hà Nội; Laure Dieudonné, workshop 2; Master’s degree in education and training; Antoine Drogoul, workshop 3; Master’s degree from McGill University; Marie Docco, workshop 4; primary school teacher. We should also like to congratulate the interpreters of this 2016 edition: Trần Thị Phương Thảo, University of Hà Nội; Ngô Thị Hồng Lan, National University of Economy; Lê Kim Quy, Ministry of foreign Affairs of Vietnam; Đặng Đức Tuệ and Huỳnh Hồng Đức, freelance; Nguyễn Thị Tuyết Lan, French embassy in Việt Nam; David Smith, freelance translator. The success of this 2016 edition owes a lot to the welcome offered by the Popular Committee of the city of Đà Nẵng and the management of Duy Tân University, Mr. Lê Công Cơ (President) and Mr. Đoàn Hồng Lê (Director of the socio-economic studies centre). I should here like to thank all of them sincerely. Finally, we also would like to thank IRD department Société et Mondialisation (SOC), and especially Flore Gubert and Olivier Évrard, for the financial support for the publication of this book. Prof. Dr. ĐỖ Hoài Nam Social Sciences Training Institute

Map 1. Localisation SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF VIETNAM

VINH

ĐÀ NẴNG

Source: Tomorrow Media.

Part 1.â&#x20AC;&#x201A; Plenary Sessions

1.1. Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity Gaël Giraud – Agence Française de Développement

(Transcript) The work presented here below was undertaken under the guidance of Gaël Giraud, within the executive directorate “Studies, research and knowledge” of the Agence française de développement[2] (AFD), and the “Energy and Prosperity” chair[3].

1.1.1. Climate is a Serious Issue The last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report showed that today there is no longer the shadow of a doubt about the anthropic origins of climate change. The graph below, from this report, indeed presents the historical progression of the average temperature on the earth’s surface. Since the beginning of the industrial era in the 19th century, it has continually risen, and this rise is assessed at more than one degree Celsius (see graph 1). The IPCC report also reveals that the “business as usual” trajectory is, in the relatively short term, incompatible with the survival of the planet and its inhabitants. However, there are several possible scenarios for the evolution of temperatures on the planet’s surface. According to the median scenario, the likely increase of temperature on the earth’s surface, under the assumption that the 195 countries that pledged to the COP21, in Paris, in 2015, implement the intended contributions determined at a national level, would be 3.5°C, which is very high and will have serious consequences that will be undoubtedly difficult to reverse and will affect firstly the poorest populations. Even more serious would be a 6°C increase in temperature, which climatologists believe to have a 10% probability of happening. This apocalyptic scenario, which would be notably marked by the release of the methane sequestered in the permafrost, makes the disappearance of humanity a plausible hypothesis, with a deadline that is not calculated in geological periods but in a finite number of human generations. [2] [3]

www.afd.fr www.chair-energy-prosperity.org

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Graph 1. Global Temperatures

Sources: IPCC, 2001.

Would you board an aeroplane today that had a one in ten chance of crashing? This is indeed the question that today confronts the international community, which seems to be resigning itself to plans for the reduction of greenhouse gases that have not been conceived to rule out such a scenario. This is extremely grave. Việt Nam is well aware of climate change because it is already feeling its effects. The rise in sea levels will affect for example the Mekong and Red River Deltas, by depriving the country of a part of its cereal granary. The latest information from climatologists is bad news in this respect, as the Antarctic Ice Sheet is melting faster than we initially thought, to such an extent that the rise in sea levels could be as high as two metres at the end of this century and not the one-metre scenario, which is habitually put forward. A two-metre rise would mean that New York, and certainly a large part of Việt Nam’s deltas would be submerged. Entire zones that are currently devoted to rice growing would be inundated and rendered unsuitable for agriculture because of soil salinization and this would result in a large migratory flow of the Vietnamese from low-lying areas towards higher-lying areas. A second phenomenon concerns glacial melting. While glaciers are enormous “free” refrigerators that nature regenerates each year to supply man with fresh water, the large glaciers of the Tibetan

Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity Plateaux are currently melting rapidly and feeding big rivers such as the Ganges and the Indus. The Mekong River is not being spared by glacial melting. In just a few decades’ time, the big rivers that supply the main part of fresh water for irrigation might run dry during the dry season. The populations that live along these rivers will no longer be able to practise irrigation, and, consequently, agriculture will become impossible. Populations are confronted by the same problem in Latin America, in the Andes. A city like La Paz, in Bolivia, at an altitude of 4000 metres, is today a desert. At the time of its construction, the area was flourishing, but the Andean glacial melt has totally transformed the environment of La Paz. Glacial melting is a major problem, not only in Asia, but also on the other continents. The third problem is declining soil fertility, which is partly linked to soil erosion (a problem that affects Việt Nam). It’s one of the variables of a complex equation which we must solve, if we are to provide food to 9 billion people in 2050. Today there is no guarantee that food security will be ensured in regions with high demographic growth such as sub-Saharan Africa. Its most notable cause is the intersection between huge population growth in Africa and declining soil fertility due to erosion and temperature increase. The fourth problem is desertification – a major problem in Africa and the Middle East. This is also a problem in China, as the Gobi Desert is stretching southwards and is now only 240km from Beijing. It is progressing each year and in the near future, Beijing will be at the gates of the desert. The fifth problem also concerns Vietnam in the first instance: the depletion of groundwater supplies. In the Mekong Delta, the Vietnamese are already pumping groundwater at a faster rate than it is replenishing itself. In reality, there is more fresh groundwater in the world than fresh surface water, but if we continue to pump it at this rate, this extremely valuable resource will soon run out. In Amman, in Jordan, fresh groundwater is pumped from 400m beneath the surface. However: - Pumping requires infrastructure and material that is as costly as that used for the extraction of oil, and thus necessitates substantial investment; - This groundwater, from which Amman is pumping, is fossil groundwater that is not replenished and will thus run out in 25 years’ time.

Horizon 2100: Uncertainty about the Rise in Temperatures The rise in temperatures is a central issue. One of the reasons that there is uncertainty about the progression of temperatures in function of carbon dioxyde (CO2) emissions is because of what we call climate sensitivity to carbon gas. Imagine for example that the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is multiplied by 2 before the end of the century. Today, climatologists and physical scientists do not agree about the sensitivity of temperature rise to the rise in CO2 concentrations. This sensitivity varies from 1 to 6 in function of the model used by climatologists. If its value were 1, a part of these scenarios would not become true. In any case, not in the 21st century, and fortunately, because the increase in CO2 concentrations would not bring about a massive increase in temperatures.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia If its value is 6, humanity is already heading towards disaster. About this, there remains a margin of uncertainty, hence the different scenarios described by the IPCC in its report. A basic principle of prudence obliges us to implement all possible measures to deal with the situation in which the sensitivity of the climate to the increase of CO2 concentrations would be equal to 6. This is all the more grave as there is a very strong “climate inertia”, consequently a favourable turnaround of the climate trajectory will be anyhow significantly later than the improvement in the environmental variables that we are trying to influence. Take for example the expansion of seawater; let us suppose that we succeed in lowering CO2 emissions right away and that we rapidly arrive at zero CO2 emissions. What would become of the rise in sea levels? Sea levels would continue to rise. Failing considerable efforts now, there will be dramatic consequences linked to climatic events at the end of this century and even earlier, because of CO2 emissions registered in the past. Let us not forget that it’s the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that causes climate change, consequently we must aim to reduce CO2 stocks, which will result on the one hand from a fall in the flow of GHG emissions and, on the other hand, from the “deactivation” of stocked greenhouse gases whose length and life and “global warming potential” are very variable according to their nature (see graph 2). The principal victims of climate change are unfortunately southern countries, among which figures Việt Nam, which is the fifth most exposed (non insular) country to climate change. Sub-Saharan Africa is also very exposed. This map, which presents a physical vulnerability to climate change index, was elaborated in Clermont-Ferrand, in France, and is used by the AFD (see map 2). A key challenge in current international negotiations is that most of the most exposed countries, in blue on this map, are also countries where the public institutions are very fragile, and even completely defective. The international community is thus reticent to help these countries, because it fears that aid for “the worst pupils in the class” will be diverted or badly used. This vulnerability index thus tries to separate these two aspects: physical exposure to climate change on the one hand and the potential institutional vulnerability of political institutions of the country. Unfortunately, it is often the case that these countries or their populations are hit with double misfortune: the countries that are most affected by the effects of climate change are also the countries whose institutions are the most defective.

Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity Graph 2. Vulnerability to Climate Change Index

Sources: IPCC, 2001.

Map 2. Vulnerability to Climate Change Index (2)

Sources: Maplecroft, 2014.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Oceans without Fish in 2050? Map 3. Abudance of Fish. North Atlantic in 1900 and 2000

Sources: Cury, P., Y. Miserey (2008) ; Christensen et al. (2003).

Biodiversity is at least as important as the energy issue. In one century, man has emptied the northern part of the Atlantic Ocean of its fish. A species such as cod for example has practically disappeared off the Canadian coasts in spite of efforts to re-introduce it into the sea over the last thirty years (without success!). Man is thus capable of totally destroying, or almost totally, the fishery resources in a part of the ocean. Some marine scientists believe that if deep-sea industrial fishing continues at the same rhythm that it is practised today, the trophic chains of reproduction of fish species will be broken and there will no longer be any edible fish in the planet’s oceans between 2040 and 2050. This is a dramatic outlook, particularly for a country like Việt Nam, for which fishing is a fundamental resource. However, contrary to what these maps may lead us to believe, the oceans will not be empty; they will be populated with jellyfish.

Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity

1.1.2. Energy Transition A large part of climate change stems from human activity and particularly from greenhouse emissions caused by consumption and energy dissipation. The second half the twentieth century marked, in regards to this, a break in relation to the preceding trend of growth in energy demand. Carbon dioxide emissions increased considerably from 1945, with the dawning of an era of mass consumption. The two oil crises in the 1970s lead to a weak and short break of slope on the graph, and humanity quickly continued on its path towards an exponential increase in the quantity of energy consumed. Within the world energy mix, coal consumption did not decline. On the contrary, its share has increased over the last decades, notably because of economic growth in China, but not only. Việt Nam might also be part of these countries whose growth in electricity consumption largely stems from the burning of coal, along with other countries such as Indonesia and South Africa. However, a transition towards a carbon-free economy has become a necessity given the gravity of the climate issue. Another way of looking at the energy mix issue at the global level consists in breaking down the sectors responsible for greenhouse gas emissions. Coal is indeed the source of 21% of emissions. It is however important to observe that agriculture also emits a large amount of GHGs. Image 1. Break Down of Greenhouse Gases in the World in 2014

Sources: Jancovici, 2015.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia Another fundamental issue is deforestation. Deforestation emits greenhouse gases because it destroys one of the principal absorption sinks of C02 emitted into the atmosphere.

The Growth-Energy Link The difficulty is that economies are addicted to energy. In this respect, transition towards a carbonfree economy is difficult to conceive, as there has been no empirical demonstration that it is possible to decouple economic growth and energy demand. Viáť&#x2021;t Nam clearly illustrates this difficulty as its energy consumption is increasing twice as fast as its GDP. Why is it complicated? Because basically, economies depend fundamentally on energy consumption. This dependence is described in the following equation:

Firstly, this equation is always true. It expresses that the per capita GDP (Yt/Nt) is equal to the product of the quantity of energy consumed per inhabitant multiplied by the energy efficiency of the economy (GDP divided by the amount of energy consumed). The second line of the Kaya equation shows that the GDP/inhabitant growth rate is still equal to the growth rate of energy consumption per capita plus the energy efficiency growth rate of a country. At the global level, between 1965 and 1980, annual global growth reached 2.38%. Never has humanity witnessed such an increase in per capita GDP. This rate can be broken down into a 1.6% increase in per capita energy consumption + a 0.78% increase in energy efficiency. Since 1981, we can observe that growth has principally resulted from energy efficiency (1.36%), and a lot less from per capita energy consumption (0.5%). At a global level, energy consumption is increasing at almost the same rate as demography, therefore not as fast as previously.

The Case of Japan This equation becomes trivial for Japan, between 2000 and 2012, since it gives: 0 = 0 + 0. Japan is no longer registering any growth, nor increase of per capita energy consumption, nor technical progress in the sense of energy efficiency. Japan has been literally caught in the trap of a serious illness that is called deflation. This very simple illustration suggests that a large part of GDP increase, therefore the way economists measure growth, is essentially due to a countryâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ability to increase its

Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity per capita energy consumption. Technical progress also plays a role, but its role is relatively minor in relation to the question of energy consumption. The graph below establishes a relation between global GDP and energy consumption. The correlation, which is highlighted by an almost straight line of least squares, appears to be very strong. This graph tells us that in order to increase GDP in 2011 by one dollar per capita, it would be necessary to raise energy consumption at a global level by almost the same amount as in 1960. Although there are some points of inflection (the crisis of the 1970s and the sub-prime crisis in 2008), these slight inflexions have not disturbed the underlying trend. Graph 3. Evolution of the Gross Domestic Product and Energy Consumption in the World

Sources: Author’s construction.

Absence of Progress? This graph that compares global GDP and energy consumption shows that roughly speaking there has been no improvement in energy efficiency at a global level between 1960 and 2011. This possible absence of progress contradicts the discourse of certain countries, notably European countries, which boast about having considerably increased energy efficiency in their economies. The answer is to be found in the fact that this straight line does not pass through the origin, as if the world had paid a fixed energy consumption cost at the beginning of the 20th century, in order to have the global GDP it has today. This “expenditure” having already been incurred, we thus have

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia the illusion of having made substantial progress in terms of energy efficiency. The right question to ask is: what marginal increase in energy consumption will lead to the growth of one unit of GDP? Reasoning in flows shows that there has been very little progress over the last fifty years, while reasoning in stock, because of the “fixed cost” that we no longer bear, gives the illusion of a significant increase in the energy efficiency of growth. This reflection opens the debate about the decoupling of energy consumption and GDP increase. If this decoupling is possible, the GDP must, in certain conditions, increase significantly more quickly than energy consumption and the straight line below should inflect towards the vertical. The last fifty years have shown that this was not the case, and that the possibility of decoupling growth and energy consumption has not yet been demonstrated. Graph 4. Secular Stagnation

Sources: Author’s construction.

Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity

Almost Total Absence of Progress? The illusion of having made major progress thus stems from the fact that the fixed cost was paid more than a century ago, while in increase of energy consumption, there has been almost no progress at a global level. However, this is not incompatible with real progress at a regional level. In reality, a continent like Europe is making real progress, but this progress is also due to the relocation of a part of its factories in countries such as China, whose energy consumption ensures the prosperity of Europe that buys high-energy intensity Chinese products at low cost. Today the Chinese are consuming and polluting on behalf of third parties! (see graph 4)

Elasticity GDP/Primary Energy Elasticity – the sensitivity of the growth in GDP to the growth in energy consumption – is extremely high. Most macro-economists, including the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank, estimate that the elasticity of GDP growth in relation to energy consumption is very low and that it should be between 8 and 10%. They also believe that GDP sensitivity to energy consumption should be equal to the share of energy in the country. It so happens that the share of energy in the GDP, because of low energy prices, has been small for a long time. It ranges from 8 to 14% in most countries with spikes of 14% just after the second oil crisis in 1979 and it is, on average, between 8 and 10% for most countries. Many economists conclude from this that world GDP depends very little on energy consumption. Recent studies have allowed us to take a new look at these estimations using long-series analysis. Indeed, the sensitivity of GDP to energy consumption is 60% and not 8 or 10%. What’s more, 60% is an average. It is around 70% in the United States. This fact is not too surprising. The United States are big energy consumers. This elasticity is only 40% in Europe, which means that Europeans consume less energy, in relation to GDP, than the United States. This ratio is probably significant for Việt Nam, since its energy consumption is increasing at a faster rate than its GDP.

Energy Transition is an Absolute Priority Energy transition does not consist in reducing the amount of energy consumed by a country. However, it is possible to modify the energy mix. Let us look at the same graph as before, but on the horizontal axis we have oil consumption and not all forms of primary energy, and on the vertical axis we place again global GDP. Analysis of the graph shows a real break in the line in the 1970s and the line approaches the vertical axis. Therefore, this signifies that transition is possible, in other words, it is possible to substitute less-polluting primary energies for oil. After the 1970s, the slope became more vertical, which means that economical growth began to necessitate less oil consumption.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia Graph 5. Consumption of Oil and World Gross Domestic Product

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2012).

Which energies may we substitute for oil without increasing the mass of GHG emissions, therefore by avoiding replacing them with primary energies that are even more polluting than coal? Renewable energies, of course, but also, by default, gas, which is a lot less polluting than oil and coal.

Relation between Energy Consumption and Industrial Production The almost linear correlation between energy consumption and industrial production illustrates the absence of any technological progress in this field over the last forty years. At the moment of the sub-prime crisis in 2008, the curve shifted to the left and not to the right: this phenomenon shows that after a big financial crisis, such as the 2007-2008 crisis, energy consumption falls and next GDP falls. This signifies that the causal relationship goes from energy consumption towards GDP, and not in the other direction. This point has triggered much debate among economists about divergent assessments regarding the elasticity of GDP in relation to energy consumption, which I spoke about earlier.

Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity Graph 6. Energy consumed and Industrial Production for the OECD, 1970-2013

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2012).

This causality is fundamental. If energy consumption cannot increase, for various reasons, then growth will be affected. The increase in energy consumption results in growth. If energy consumption falls, because of climate, for example, growth will collapse. Certain economists have subconsciously understood this and have tried to change the way we measure GDP in order to hide the foreseeable fall of growth in the coming years. Last year, in 2015, nominal GDP fell by 6%, that is the equivalent of getting rid of the Japanese economy. However, in 2015, there was neither a major financial disaster nor a global natural catastrophe, and no country defaulted on its debt. Why do we speak about this so little? Firstly, because economists are embarrassed and reassure themselves by saying that real (inflation-corrected) GDP has increased, in so far as real GDP at a global level is calculated by â&#x20AC;&#x153;tamperingâ&#x20AC;? with exchange rates between countries. This real GDP, which is an artificial construction, continues to increase, while nominal world GDP has fallen -6%. Real GDP is not however a good construction because debts are often reimbursed with real money (in dong, yen, euros). The real GDP is not used to reimburse any debt. The nominal GDP is used to reimburse debts. If the nominal GDP falls 6%, the planet will be faced with a huge problem reimbursing its debts.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia

Energy Consumption can no longer increase. Why? Firstly, because of climate, and secondly because of the oil peak. Graph 7. Peak Oil? Soon?

Sources: http://www.carbone4.com/

The outlook for global oil consumption shows that it has been reached or that it will reach its peak very soon. Reaching its peak does not mean there will be no more oil. The total amount of available reserves represented by the surface under the curve will run out once this curve reaches zero. The total amount of consumed oil corresponds to this area. The oil peak is thus the moment when the summit of the curve has been reached and from when it will no longer be possible to increase the amount of oil consumed on earth. Evidently, the day after the oil peak, there will still be oil and humanity will continue to consume it, but simply less than oil than before. The oil peak using conventional extraction techniques was already reached, at a global level, in 2005. Everyone admits this, particularly the International Energy Agency. This agency took five years to recognise this, because of pressure from the oil lobby. Today, the debate is closed. The world conventional oil peak was reached in 2005, with 88 million barrels of oil produced each day. There is also debate about the oil peak using all types of extraction techniques, including fracking, which allows the extraction of oil and shale gas, in the United States and Canada particularly. Today, the community of oil engineers is deeply divided. The optimists think that the world oil peak (using all types of technique) will be around 2050/2060. The more pessimistic think it will be in 2025.

Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity However, there are some objective reasons to envisage this peak for 2025, because geophysicists agree about this date. The response that humanity can bring to the climate change challenge is turning out to be very complicated. Diagram 1. Development of the Kaya Identity

Sources: Author’s construction.

In this new version of the Kaya identity, the amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere by humanity is situated to the left. It is still equal to the right term, that is to say the amount of CO2 divided by energy consumed, multiplied by energy consumed, divided by the GDP and multiplied by the per capita GDP and the population itself. The population is thus “eliminated”, the GDP is eliminated, energy is eliminated and CO2 still remains equal to CO2. This is a tautology, but it is very useful, as it allows us to understand the issues. The amount of CO2 emitted remains equal to the CO2 intensity of consumed energy, multiplied by the energy intensity of GDP, multiplied by per capita GDP and multiplied by the population. The international community, particularly in Paris last year, pledged to divide by three the amount of CO2 at a global level before 2050. It has proved to be imperative to conclude this agreement if humanity wishes to avoid an apocalypse at the end of this century, which will probably occur, if temperatures rise +6°C. To succeed in doing this, it is necessary to divide by 3 the term on the left,

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia and therefore the term on the right, to preserve the identity. Where are the margins for manoeuvre? Let us look for the answers in the terms of the equation: - the population: the demographic evolution of a country is not easily to manipulate; UNO scenarios predict a slower than forecast demographic transition in sub-Saharan Africa and a world population of 9 billion in 2050, and 11 billion at the end of the century. A division by 3 of the population is therefore not feasible. At best, the population will remain constant. This is practically impossible as the demographic trend for 2050 is determined today. - Per capita GDP: or revenue per inhabitant. It appears quite clear that no government is capable of proposing a political programme built on a fall in per capita revenue, therefore, it is not serious to propose a division by three. The outlook is rather for an annual 2% increase in per capita incomes, thus multiplying the per capita GDP by 2 between now and 2050. If we wish to succeed in dividing by three the mass of CO2 emissions, while considering as pre-determined demographic growth and targeted economic growth, we will have to divide by 7 the product of the two other terms of the equation to maintain its identity. - Energy intensity: or the amount of energy, all types together, in relation to the GDP. It has fallen by 30%, on a global level, over the last 40 years, but the continuation of this trend is not justified and, at all events, would be far from allowing us to reach the factor of reduction necessary for maintaining the identity of the terms of the equation. - Consequently, we have to quite substantially reduce the CO2 content of the energy produced, divide it by at least 4 (by 7 if we do not register a supplementary reduction of energy intensity): that is energy transition, the transition of a carbon economy towards a carbon-free economy resides in this term. In conclusion, the only term we can really and immediately act upon, in the short term, is indeed this last one. Will humanity succeed in dividing it by 7? We have no idea. However, as long as a country such as Viáť&#x2021;t Nam continues to found its prosperity on coal, it will be difficult in achieving this goal. Viáť&#x2021;t Nam is not alone, China too, and, at heart, the Europeans too, since they have relocated in China the polluting factories whose production they benefit from. All countries are thus responsible. Let us be aware of the huge size of the challenge. Humanity may succeed in reducing the amount of CO2 it emits by working on this variable that is the easiest to reverse using scientific progress, by influencing behaviours and by the use of individual and collective political intelligence. Other less desirable phenomena may also contribute, such as the collapse of per capita income, which is unfortunately all too possible, or even a population collapse, as the result of a humanitarian disaster in the years to come. The Agrimonde outlook unfortunately makes this possibility of a collapse all too possible.

Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity

1.1.3. Adapting to the Possibility of a Collapse In 1972, some absolutely remarkable work was carried out at the MIT, Boston, by physical scientists, agronomists, biologists and engineers (there was not a single economist in the team). This team presented a report to the Club of Rome entitled “Limits to growth” (“Halte à la croissance” in the French version) that was a great success at the time and sold more than 10 million copies. Unfortunately, this report was completely ignored by economists who abstained from commenting on this fundamental report, because it did not contain one line of economics. Meadows (1972) has not yet been proved wrong. Graph 8. Collapse

Sources: Turner, 2014.

This report argued that the business as usual trajectory would lead to a planetary collapse in the 21st century. One of the scenarios predicted a collapse of agricultural production, therefore of industry, therefore of the population, in the 2020s. This work was completely ignored and scorned by economists. However, the Australian physical scientist, Graham Turner, tested it in 2008, and then looked at whether Meadows’ trajectories had indeed been followed by the planet since 1972. Unfortunately, Turner (2014) arrived at the conclusion that Meadows’ models were reliable. Meadows’ team, in 1972, had indeed built a model that reliably predicted some essential variables for the evolution of the planet over 40 years. Whereas a macro-economic model does not allow us to predict “intelligent things” for the next two years! Without one line of economics, Meadows had conceived a model that “worked” for 40 years. Meadows envisaged two scenarios for planetary collapse, the first in the 2020s, and the second in the 2060s.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia This probable collapse would be due to two phenomena: the depletion of natural resources for the first scenario and the saturation of absorption wells by pollution for the second, independently, for the latter, of any consideration about climate change. Therefore, climate may be added to what had been done by Meadows. Essentially, the difference between the first and the second of Meadows’ scenarios is found in the question of the oil peak, according to whether the latter was foreseen in 2025 or in the decade 2050-2060. At the AFD, an economic model is under construction that integrates the parameters of energy and climate into the projection of the determining factors of tomorrow’s economic world. The conclusions of this model unfortunately confirm Meadows’ work. This macro-economic model, at a global level, particularly takes into account (public and private) debt. Climate feedback loops, in other words the impact of the climate on the global economy, send us towards planetary collapse in the course of the 21st century. This collapse has not been so quick to happen as Meadows predicted, and will not happen in the 2020s, but rather at the beginning of the second half of the 21st century. Many scenarios have been envisaged, notably in function of climate sensitivity to CO2. Evidently, if it is equal to 1, there will be no planetary collapse. Man may continue to pollute, and finally the temperature will only increase a little. If it is equal to 6, planetary collapse will be rapid in 2050-2060, simply because of climate, that is to say by neglecting all the other aspects of Meadows’s work, namely the oil peak, the copper peak, the phosphor peak, but also the saturation wells of the other forms of pollution that we emit. By way of an example, the hole in the ozone layer has ceased to increase, but it is not getting any smaller today, contrary to what we learn in the media. This means that the other aspects of pollution from human activity, independently of climate, and therefore of CO2, are fundamental and no considerable progress has been made in the response given to these other aspects. In conclusion, my general message is that the business as usual trajectory is going to lead humanity to disaster. For these reasons, this trajectory is not feasible and we must avoid it at all costs, hence the imperative necessity for energy transition.

The Question of Prices Most economists show no concern about the oil peak and ensure us that the price of oil is going to rise very quickly and send a signal to the market about the depletion of oil stocks and this will provide the necessary incentives for a rapid conversion to the use of other primary energies. Economists particularly have in mind a model that dates back to the 1930s, which allows us to predict that if one resource diminishes, then the prices of other resources will increase. And what’s more, as the price of this energy increases, it also incites those who are extracting this energy to drill a little bit further, so as to definitively deplete resources. Therefore, as far as oil is concerned, in principle, the price of the barrel should rise sharply in order to allow oil companies to have profitable investments in order to extract the last remaining reserves and furthermore oblige the remainder of the demand to turn to other types of energy.

Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity This is very different from the reality. The price of raw materials, and oil prices in particular, are not skyrocketing at the moment. On the contrary, the paradox of the price of a barrel that has collapsed over the last three years, and still remains low, is confirmation of this. And yet, we know that oil prices dictate the prices of all energies that heavily depend on the price of oil, and the price of energy largely dictates the price of raw materials, because energy is necessary to extract these raw materials. Graph 9. Price of the Barrel vs GDP in constant dollars from 1960 to 2014

Sources: Jancovici, op. cit, 2015.

We may observe that there is no correlation between the increase in oil consumption and its price. Two massive peaks of increase were observed during the oil crises in the 1970s and the sub-prime crisis in 2008. Outside these peaks, the price of oil collapses. The model of Hotelling is strongly contradicted by these observations. It is completely false, empirically. And when the facts contradict the theory, we are obliged to change the theory. Unfortunately, in the tribe of economists, when the facts show that the theory is false, the theory is maintained and the facts are denied.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia The following graph clearly shows that prices do not transmit the relevant information about the depletion of resources. Graph 10. Prospectives from the International Energy Agency and the Observed Price of Oil

Sources: http://www.iea.org ; http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org

It shows the outlook transmitted by the International Energy Agency concerning oil prices and the observed price of oil. It is clear that the price of oil is completely disconnected from the International Energy Agencyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s projections. Not once have economists shown themselves capable of correctly predicting oil prices, they are wrong at all times. There are two explanations for these fluctuations in oil prices that are not linked to the supply and demand of oil. Firstly, the oil market is a market that is extremely rigged, in the sense that the world oil price is calculated in the following way: each day a private institution telephones the leading oil companies to ask them what price they were selling at the previous day. It telephones twenty or so companies, eliminates those that are very high in the range and those that are very low, and calculates the average price of the others. And, each morning, it says that the price of oil is so much. The same mechanisms are used to define LIBOR, the adjustable interest rates set in London by asking City banks. Three years ago, it was observed that the banks that had been consulted to calculate the

Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity Libor rate had manipulated the information that they gave to the institution that was to fix the rate. Why? Because if you know what interest rate will be decided tomorrow beforehand, you can make money by betting on tomorrow’s interest rates, and as you are the one who gave the information that will be used to calculate the interest rates, you are sure to win.

Too Much Volatility Kills Prices We know today that twenty or so big banks knowingly manipulated Libor rates to make money. The same is true for oil. It is possible that oil prices are manipulated because they are not calculated in function of supply and demand, but in function of a declaration from oil companies about what they are doing. Is it in oil companies’ interests to manipulate a declaration that they make to an organisation that calculates the price of oil? The answer lies without doubt in the question! Furthermore, the price of oil today is very financialised because there are more financial transactions on oil (“oil securities”) than there are physical amounts that are the object of commercial transactions. The oil spot market – the oil market where “real” oil is bought – is thirty times smaller than the oil financial markets on which the large banks buy and sell oil-related derivatives, or financial assets. For example, assets may be contracts that promise the delivery of oil in 30 years’ time. Although the big banks buy oil delivery contracts thirty years in advance, they have no intention of taking delivery of the oil, but they hope that in a few months, or a few years’ time, the price of these contracts will have risen. And as soon as the price of these contracts has sufficiently risen, the banks resell the asset in order to pocket the difference in price between what they paid for the asset and what they sold it for. This whole process is called speculation on oil derivative financial assets. The reason I am speaking about this speculation here is that it is huge, as it weighs 30 times heavier than the physical oil market and it always ends up by having an influence on the oil price itself.

This is Exactly what Happened in 2008 In 2008, the price of oil exploded. The price of a barrel was USD 60 at the end of 2007 and it rose to USD 145 in the middle of 2008, and then collapsed to USD 40 before finally rising again to USD 60. These fluctuations only lasted twelve months. Such a 60-145-40-60 variation bears no relation whatsoever to the real supply and demand of oil. Real supply and demand of oil is extremely stable at a global level, it is rising slowly in reality, by about 500 000 barrels per year, in favour of the growth of emerging countries.

What Happened? The financial investors, the traders, who had bought a large quantity of “rotten” financial assets (sub-primes) understood, at the end of 2007-beginning 2008, that these assets were no longer worth anything. They had to sell them in panic, and, in moments of panic, they always reinvest their money in the same three things: - Gold, because we continue to believe that gold is a secure investment, even though gold plays a very minor role in today’s world economy.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia - Oil, because oil plays a fundamental role in the world’s economy. - The Swiss franc for obscure reasons. In any case, these are the three refuge values in which Western traders invest their money when there is panic. These phenomena are quite clearly observable thanks to the evolution of the trading prices of gold and oil in 2008, which are absolutely parallel. The price of gold and oil exploded and collapsed at the same moment, then rose again at the same time. Why? Because the traders, in the panic of the financial crisis, began to sell their sub-prime assets and began to buy huge amounts of gold, oil and Swiss francs, before selling these assets at the same moment some months later. Therefore, the price of oil today does not reflect its real physical depletion, or even the evolution of the supply and demand of oil, but it reflects the manipulations of oil companies and the forecasts of banks. A result of some mathematical research by French scientists has shown that the financialisation of the price of oil may completely prevent the price of oil from giving any real information at all. The deterministic trend of prices should indeed be exponential, if Hotelling’s model was true, since it should reflect the increasing scarcity of oil. This is also true for copper, and phosphorous, as we know that they are going to reach their peaks in the coming years, therefore, their prices should also rise. Let us now suppose that these prices, which are prices linked to the real market, are financialised and depend on the random movements of financial markets, and let us suppose that these random movements are of a relatively small size. In these cases, the deterministic trend will not be visible. In its place will be something a little chaotic that corresponds to the trend and which is simply the trend plus an average event. In this situation, those who observe the trading price of oil on the market will not observe anything interesting from day to day, but in the medium term, they will indeed see a trend appear, which will give them the right information. If volatility, that is to say, the size and amplitude of the random fluctuations of financial rates, is great then prices are necessarily going to collapse. Therefore the underlying price of increasingly scarce oil is necessarily going to skyrocket exponentially. Conversely, financialisation, if it is itself accompanied by sufficiently great random agitation, may provoke a fall in prices. From a theoretical point of view, this process is absolutely realistic. It implies that a financialised price may not be considered an indicator of any reality whatsoever. It may transmit information that is absolutely false.

Conclusion The economic and political mastery of energy transition assumes a detailed knowledge by economists of the mechanisms at work in the forming of the prices of combustibles. Economists should stop looking at prices that do not transmit the right information, and begin to look at quantities, just like engineers and physical scientists! The change in method of reasoning will help us to avoid persisting in the error of believing that a low energy price is proof that energy is only a minor parameter among the variables in the “growth equation”. The analysis of physical quantities, of volumes and masses, reveals, on the contrary that

Energy Transition: Energy, Climate and Prosperity “energy commands the GDP” and the big challenge of energy transition is indeed to drastically reduce the “carbon dioxide content” of the energy we transform.

Bibliographical References BP Statistical Review of World Energy (2012) – Web Site: bp.com/statisticalreview Climate Change and Environmental Risk Atlas – Web Site: maplecroft.com/portfolio/ new-analysis/2014/10/29/climate-change-and-lack-food-security-multiply-risks-conflict-and-civilunrest-32-countries-maplecroft/ Christensen, V., S. Guénette, J.J. Heymans, C.J. Walter, R. Watson, R. Zeller, D. Pauly (2003), Hundred year decline of North Atlantic predatory fishes, Fish and Fisheries, Volume 4, Issue 1. Cury, P. and Y. Miserey (2008), Une mer sans poisson. Paris : Calmann-Lévy. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001), Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., Y. Ding, D.J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P.J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C.A. Johnson (eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881p. Jancovici, J.-M. (2015), Dormez tranquilles jusqu’en 2100, éditions Odile Jacob. Maplecroft (2014), Climate Change Vulnerability Index; available at http://www.maplecroft.com/ about/news/ccvi.html Meadows, D, J. Randers, W. Behrens (1972), The Limits to Growth, Universe Books. Turner, G. (2014), Is Global Collapse Imminent? An Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data, Technical Report, University of Melbourne.

1.2. Energy Transition and Territories Sébastien Velut – University Paris 3 Sorbonne Nouvelle

The notion of energy transition has been used by specialists to describe the big changes in the energy system that have taken place since the industrial revolution. The switches from wood to coal and then from coal to oil constitute two major changes that have been finely analysed (Grubler, 2012). Since the beginning of the 2000s, the term “energy transition” has acquired a new meaning: that of the pressing need to face up to the progressive depletion of fossil resources and, especially, limit the greenhouse gas emissions that are responsible for the degradation of the global climate. In Germany, the notion of energy transition – Energiewende – first appeared in the 1980s in the continuity of opposition movements to the implantation of new nuclear power stations, although at this period the effects of fossil energy on the climate had not yet been taken into account, as they had not yet been clearly identified. At a European level, the energy road map for 2050 from 2011 emphasises the need to implement by 2050 a decarbonised, competitive and safe energy supply. In France, the law of 17th August 2015 on “energy transition and green growth” brings together a series of initiatives to increase the share of renewable energies and encourage energy restraint. It was accompanied by big debates, which notably took place at a regional level, to mobilise the different players in the energy sector. Thus, the descriptive category of energy transition has become an ordering concept of European public policies and it is inspiring, beyond European borders, numerous initiatives. However, multiple objectives have been brought to the forefront. In the general framework for the securing of supply and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, several different approaches may be found, such as the development of conventional renewable energies – that is to a say mainly large-scale hydraulics, but it may also be necessary to now include wind energy, whose technology is proved and non-conventional – which may range from technologies that have already been tried and tested, but still have scope for improvement (photovoltaic solar energy, small-scale hydraulics), to experimental forms that still need to be tested (biofuels produced from microorganisms, thermal solar, native hydrogen for example). However, even though a lot of research tends to overestimate its technological aspects, energy transition also refers to modifications in regulatory frameworks, energy markets and above all, developments in the needs and practices of consumers and the response of energy companies. It thus has, and this is a key point, social foundations. Not only because energy transition will in some way modify the competitiveness of companies and thus affect employment, but also because we will not be able to conceal household energy costs and

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia access problems, problems that we sometimes group together under the terms energy poverty or energy precariousness (Bafoil, Fodor and Le Roux, 2014). If the development of this energy-mix results in an increase in costs, how can we not deprive the poorest households of essential energy access to escape poverty? More generally, modifying energy access modes means profound changes in life styles, in the way people move around, consume and lodge, and not only changes in the source of primary energy used. In European countries, which have highly developed networks of energy supplies, one of the possible consequences of energy transition is an increase in prices for households in order to compensate for investment in new infrastructure, the use of non-conventional and more costly technology and the prices or taxes on green houses emissions. In southern countries, energy transition cannot ignore the major challenges of access to energy, whether it is in regions that are badly served by networks or in poor neighbourhoods where inhabitants are confronted by problems. Thus, energy transition is mainly considered in Europe â&#x20AC;&#x201C; notably in France â&#x20AC;&#x201C; as a modernisation of the energy offer (foreseen closure of coal power stations, progressive diminution in the share of nuclear power, extension of wind power). However, the issue is more complex in southern countries where there is big demographic growth. The necessity of attaining economic growth and widening access to energy for households are the priority goals and energy restraint, which is at the forefront in Europe, does not appear to be a satisfactory option. Global energy transition is indeed a central goal in the perspective of sustainable development: it must ensure, at the same time, access to energy for all, the improvement of living conditions and the minimisation of environmental impacts, particularly on the climate. However, such a transition must be considered at different levels, from territories where specific challenges develop, different solutions may be devised, but deadlocks may also occur. This text aims to specify how this territorial transition may be taken into consideration, by particularly insisting upon metropolitan challenges and the deadlocks that can be identified. In order to address these questions, it appears necessary to first present the developments in the geography of energy, in other words how energy systems fit within geographical space.

1.2.1. Towards a New Geography of Energy Energy needs space, but its relation to space is in the process of changing, notably as a result of the implementation of new energy technologies, but also because of social demands and an evolving geopolitical context. Table 1 groups these changes together schematically. A period marked by centralisation and economies of scale is being followed by a moment where trends towards decentralisation, proximity and decision-making at a local level are becoming visible. We can date back to the early 1990s the progressive change in the energy model, which had been implemented at the end of the Second World War, towards new rules of organisation. This chronological break was first triggered by the first oil crises (1973 and 1979) that alerted importing countries about their dependence on suppliers that were not always reliable, and this was followed by a slow decrease in the share of oil in primary energy. However, these are not the only changes to be taken into account. After the fall of the Berlin wall and the rapid disintegration of the Eastern bloc, a new

Energy Transition and Territories period of global geopolitics dawned, at the same time as global concerns about climate took hold. We can remember that the first report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on climate was published in 1990, under the aegis of the International Meteorological Organisation (IMO), and it was in 1992, at the Rio conference that the United Nations framework agreement on climate change was signed – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). At the same time, the opening of markets and the affirmation of capitalist principles brought about economic reforms, industrial relocation and the growth of emerging countries. The consequence of this was an increase in their energy demand and an increase in the use of fossil fuels in a scenario of technological continuity and the recourse to less costly solutions, therefore the use of fossil hydrocarbons in priority. In the mid 2000s, the whole of the Asia-Pacific region overtook North America as the world’s leading energy consumer and, logically, the leading emitter of greenhouse gases – in 2014 emissions in China were reportedly twice as high as in the United States. A new geography of hydrocarbon consumption thus emerged, which strengthened the transfer of the highest greenhouse gas emitting units from the North to the South, in order to honour the pledges of the Kyoto protocol. During the same period, the schema for the energy supply of the big industrial powers, which was mainly based on oil from the Middle East, was called into question. Schematically, in the 1950s, the Middle East was the main supplier of oil, Saudi Arabia in particular, which signed a privileged agreement with the United States to stabilise prices, secure supply and guarantee political stability. This schema later became more diversified, notably with discoveries of natural gas in the North Sea and the construction of large-scale gas pipelines between the USSR and Western Europe – the Soyouz gas pipeline that entered into service at the beginning of the 1980s – that allowed Europe to reduce its dependence on its Middle Eastern suppliers. The development of deposits in Africa and Latin America and an increased use of gas redrew the map of global exchanges and developed countries attempted to make use of alternative sources, such as nuclear power and non-conventional hydrocarbons. In industrialised countries, large electric transport networks at the national level were progressively developed and interconnected with neighbouring countries. In the case of France, the first large lines were established in the 1930s. They progressively constituted a national network at the same time as the French nuclear plants were constructed, of which they are an indispensable complement. They indeed serve to distribute the electricity produced in a small number of power stations across the whole country, while at the same time dissipating a non-negligible part, through the joule effect, all along their path. It was from these national networks that a European network was built that now covers all Western Europe and goes from Finland to Italy and from Spain to Poland. With more than 300 000 km of high-voltage lines, the building of this network is considered by many to be one of the largest and most complex technical feats ever achieved. Indeed, it requires that the supply and demand of electricity be balanced at each moment across this vast space with over 500 million inhabitants. Different initiatives are being taken to extend this network towards other partner countries, notably to the south of the Mediterranean and to prepare the growth of renewable energies, and even to begin thinking about the constitution of a global electricity network.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia These large electricity networks, for which Europe provides the example, are also found in the Americas and in Asia. In the Popular Republic of China, the State-run company State Grid is building and operating electricity networks on 88% of national territory, providing electricity to more than a billion people and employment to 1 720 000 people. It is therefore a gigantic company whose growth is linked to the industrialisation of China and the improvement of access to energy for all its inhabitants. More widely, the existence of these large networks is testimony to economic and political factors: they respond to a logic of economies of scale in electricity production and a trend towards making electricity the main source of energy used by the final consumer – apart from transport – and this has only been made possible under the effect of a sustained energy policy. Economies of scale have been at the centre of the development of this electrical development, with a switch to increasingly large power plants in order to reduce the cost of a kilowatt-hour of electricity (kWh): large-scale dams such as the Three Gorges Dam (China) or the Itaipu dam (BrazilParaguay), nuclear plants and large coal-burning plants offer better functioning costs. On the other hand, the switch to electricity-only in industry and for households – with for example the generalisation of electrical cooking systems and air-conditioning – is seen as a way of acceding to a form of energy modernity, which is cleaner, safer and more reliable in comparison to other solutions that are deemed to be more traditional and depend on different fuels, such as charcoal for example. Current interest in electric vehicles is part of the same logic: limiting polluting emissions linked to traffic (but not linked to electricity production!) and using existing networks to bring energy to consumers. The considerable investments represented by these large infrastructures, and the profound changes in how they are used, were only made possible because the States directly funded a part of them and created the conditions that allowed long-term planning in the sector. What’s more, the linking of all national territories to networks is also the answer to a geopolitical wish to integrate all regions, provide energy to all, develop all available potential and unify markets. At the beginning of the 1990s, a new scenario came to light, which began to compete with the model we have just described, without replacing it completely, as networks continued to be extended and large infrastructures developed. But this more decentralised model, which once again put into play the concept of energy proximity, demonstrates that it is possible to think differently about energy networks. The flow of exchanges has become more diversified with the rise in power of new hydrocarbon producers in Africa, in Latin America and in Asia, who are partially taking the place of Middle-Eastern suppliers. More recently, the exploitation of non-conventional hydrocarbons has been contributing to this diversification. Oil remains the principal source of primary energy, but it is being increasingly supplemented by natural gas, with new suppliers, and renewable energies, notably wind power, are experiencing significant development. Above all, we no longer only think in terms of increased supplies, but also in terms of rationalising use, efficiency and even energy restraint. In emerging countries, it is not only necessary to find new sources of energy – which justifies the building of large dams and thermal power stations – but also to connect isolated regions to large networks. According to figures from the World Energy Council, in 2013, 1.2 billion people do not have access to energy. About half of these people live in Africa and mainly in rural regions.

Energy Transition and Territories We thus move from a problematic of energy quantity to a more qualitative approach: which energy? Which source? For what purposes? This context marks the assertion of new spatial logics in the energy domain. On the global scale, commerce is becoming more diversified and big consumers are asserting themselves. On local scales, energy players are seeking to develop further the available resources to satisfy demands. The notion of an intelligent network – smart grid – has been introduced to designate local electricity supply circuits that allow a much finer control of household consumption and the inclusion of large number of dispersed electricity producers thanks to the massive use of information management technologies. The smart grids must be capable of balancing the use of electricity, not like in the preceding schema where there were only a few centralised electricity producers and a large number of consumers, but in a context where there are also a large number of small producers, such as owners of wind farms or other electricity-producing plants, and where it is possible to modulate directly users’ consumption, by turning on or off at distance certain household appliances for example. In other words, while the electricity network only transported electrical current, the smart grid equally carries information, processes it in real time and has automated control systems. The smart grids are inspiring a lot of research that goes from the processing of information to the development of remote-controlled material, as well as the legal and social aspects of their deployment. At present, they are still part of an experimental approach in small territories and are coming up against a certain amount of distrust from consumers who do not want their energy consumption patterns to be monitored and controlled. It is also a case of developing and testing models that allow the linking together of different producers and users, and the remote control of certain equipment. We will not enter here into a detailed discussion: it is necessary however to emphasise that these intelligent networks are governed by a different type of spatialization because of their scale, because of the wish to balance production and consumption at the level of each territory, and also because of the fact that the network does not only function in one direction – from producer to consumer – but in both directions – the consumer may become a producer and he sends information to the network. Even though large networks continue to function and integrate nations and large territories, reflection about smart grids helps to demonstrate the new importance local scales have acquired in energy debates.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Table 1. A New Context for Energy 1950-1990

After 1990

Geopolitical context

Cold War

Multi-polar world International forums

Geo-economics

Domination of the United States Secondary centres in Europe and in Japan Stable energy prices Long-distance transport

Assertion of China Emerging economies Instability of energy prices Redevelopment of proximities

Networks

Large networks

Intelligent networks

Environment

Low awareness of environmental problems

Global concern for climate Local demands

Dominant energy source

Oil

Diversification of sources

Challenge

Increasing energy availability

Implementing energy transition

Source: Author’s construction.

1.2.2. The Role of Territories in Energy Transition During the Cold War decades, energy issues were considered at national levels, which went hand in hand with the strengthening of State intervention in society at different levels and involved the construction of large national companies – electricity, transport and oil companies. The extension, the correct functioning and the supply of energy at controlled prices went hand in hand with the growth in the State’s role and was often accompanied by an increase in the political weight of energy power unions. Global energy geopolitics were organised along the principle of relations between States, with for example the forming of cartels such as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), privileged agreements for supply such as those that allowed the construction of gas pipelines from the Soviet Union, and even systems of regional integration. Energy transition is leading us to reassess the place of subnational territories and, more generally, to reason no longer uniquely at a national level but in a multi-scalar way: it is part of the rescaling of energy issues. Firstly, the development of non-conventional energy resources brings us to consider territories differently so as to assess their new deposits of renewable energy. The cartographies drawn up regarding hours of sun, winds and maritime currents, and biomass production highlight a distribution of energy resources that is very different from the maps of hydrocarbons. Regions, such as the Sahel, where access to hydrocarbons and electricity remain complicated, are among those that benefit from the most plentiful sunshine. The narrow consideration of these potentials and, especially, the implementation of sectors that will allow their use, require a specific approach in terms of territorial development and local organisation. Thus, for example, the installation of wind parks not only involves the identification of zones where the right winds blow regularly, but also the taking into account of land access constraints, environmental aspects, landscape impacts and also difficulties in linking them to existing networks. The use of biofuels has consequences on crops and land use, but also needs special networks for collecting, transforming, stocking and distributing.

Energy Transition and Territories It also requires the defining of norms that guarantee that biofuels match the user’s machines. Likewise, the development of biomass as energy largely depends on the implementation of local networks for collection and distribution, notably to avoid transporting biomass long distances, to use it as close as possible to the collection points and recuperate the waste from transformation for energy use, as it has a very low energy density that does not justify transporting it. In France, woodfuel sectors have been introduced at the regional level, as for example in France-Comté, where there was already a well-structured wood sector, and where wood for energy use has been greatly developed for domestic heating, but also in collective and industrial boilers. The rationalisation of uses and the increase in energy efficiency may also be imagined at a territorial level, beginning with aspects concerning buildings and transports. Indeed, many technical solutions exist for climate-adapted buildings, such as natural ventilation systems or the quality of thermal insulation. These solutions must be, quite evidently, conceived and applied in function of local climatic conditions, but also using construction techniques. Likewise, transport planning appears to be an important source of energy efficiency. The improvement of traffic conditions for public transport, through the creation of special lanes, the use of more efficient, or less polluting vehicles, such as hybrid buses is generally decided at a local level. These developments also modify inhabitants’ perceptions of energy by bringing energy sources closer to consumers. In a certain way, the territorialisation of energy issues also brings us back to the materialisation of these issues in proximity areas. As long as energy is easily accessible at the pump or from the socket, and the political and technical systems that allow this availability remain invisible, consumers do not perceive all the issues that energy conveys – except when it begins to run out, which reveals the flaws of existing systems. Relocating energy sources to consumer proximity areas has triggered debates about the relevance of installing energy conversion structures, which inevitably have impacts on the environment and landscape, and on land occupation. Opposition movements to large infrastructures, such as dams, are multiplying and are also affecting renewable energies, such as wind farms, because of the place they occupy in the landscape. More precisely, inhabitants want to know exactly what advantages are brought by these installations and are less and less willing to accept their construction, if it is not accompanied by a concrete improvement in their situation. Territory is thus affirming itself as a privileged level of negotiation between social players, all the more so as the principle according to which the State alone is apt to act in the general interest is no longer generally accepted, and as, on the contrary, consumers are demanding more detailed and more localised explanations of the challenges. Thus, for example, the construction of large hydro electric dams, which were for a long time funded by States out of concern for rationally developing the territory and making full use of resources, is now strongly contested by local communities and protection groups who see directly the disadvantages of these constructions and a lot less the advantages that they might hope to gain from them. Indeed, the construction of large dams has all too often failed to result in an improvement in energy access in the regions where they have been installed, because the electricity they produce was destined in priority for the big metropolises and was conveyed there directly by high-voltage lines without any local connections.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia In contrast, the upheaval of ecosystems and local communities are perceived as serious threats to biological and cultural diversity. It is at the level of territories that it is necessary to conceive the processes of consultation and accompaniment for these constructions. Likewise, it is at this level that it is easier to coordinate the stakeholders in the energy sector, harmonise supply and demand and influence behaviour. The territorial approach does not take the place of national approaches to energy transition. In function of the existing institutional architecture, certain decision making remains at a central level. On the other hand, energy transition cannot be envisaged without precise implementation at the territorial level concerning the development of available energy resources and the modification of energy uses. Even though very different national energy models exist, we can also think about the diversification of local and regional energy models in function of available local resources, and collective needs and choices. This takes nothing away from the interest in having large networks that are apt to ensure energy supplies. This complementarity may be illustrated in the case of big metropolises.

1.2.3. Metropolitan Challenges: Fragmentation and Coordination A large number of specific challenges linked to energy transition are found concentrated in large metropolises. They are places where a growing part of the population is concentrated throughout the world, this is even more so in southern countries and consequently they are the main centres of energy consumption. Here specific issues are raised, such as transport and housing, which both have an energy dimension. They are also places of production, where energy transition for economic activity is a key issue. Finally, they are a space of socio-spatial inequality with equity problems in terms of energy access and where there are particular difficulties in giving impetus to a form of energy transition that requires imposing changes on a complex system that is deeply rooted in history. The characteristics of built-up spaces and existing networks largely condition the possibilities of improving transport and housing efficiency and the sources of energy used. These problems are particularly acute in the southern metropolises that are experiencing high demographic, and spatial growth. However, the implementation of energy transition is coming up against numerous difficulties linked to the institutional organisation of the sector and not only to technical paraÂmeters, as well as the metropolisation process per se, which combines inequalities, spatial spread and political fragmentation. We can illustrate these difficulties by using examples of Latin-American metropolises and particularly the case of Buenos Aires in Argentina. In the 1990s, reforms lead to the liberalisation of electricity markets and the privatisation of the companies in the sector, which were, generally, stateowned. They sought to reduce the costs shouldered by the States and introduce more efficient management methods by strengthening competition within the energy sector. Thus, for example, the liberalisation of markets allowed electricity distributors to purchase supplies from the cheapest producers. This partial retreat of the State from the energy sector made it more complex to pilot, as different interests coexisted: companies that were unequally powerful and efficient, with heterogeneous technical levels corresponding to development stages. However, the State is directly

Energy Transition and Territories responsible in so far as a regular energy supply at the best possible price appears to be essential for development. This system raises several problems. In the large metropolises, it does not take into account properly the poor populations, and notably those living in shantytowns, who have not the means to pay for electricity, and therefore do not represent a solvent market for distribution companies. In the absence of formal networks, the inhabitants resort to illegal connections that engender serious safety issues for users through the non-respect of technical norms, for the companies that lose a part of their revenue, and through the weakening of the whole system of distribution owing to the theft of electrical current. On the other hand, seeking the best possible supply cost and reducing expenses limits investment possibilities: the deterioration of urban networks and the lack of reliability of the transformers engenders a reduced quality electricity supply. In the case of Rio de Janeiro, Francesa Pilo (2016) demonstrates for example that supply faults â&#x20AC;&#x201C; power cuts, fluctuations in tension â&#x20AC;&#x201C; affect the poorer neighbourhoods a lot more than the rich neighbourhoods in the metropolis. The energy inefficiency of dwellings, linked to the choice of materials and energies used for their functioning, leads to the accumulation of problems, which are all the more difficult to solve owing to the large number of dwellings. Very often, the choice to build at the lowest price means that the criteria for thermic optimisation and insulation are not taken into consideration, which leads the occupants to then use inefficient appliances in their dwellings, such as moveable gas or paraffin stoves, and low-cost but inefficient air-conditioning that triggers demand peaks during heat waves. The third field of energy consumption is mobility, and all too often immobility in traffic congestion that represents the useless consumption of fuel. A rise in household income is generally accompanied by the purchase of a car: the urban population has greatly increased over the last ten years and, in many metropolises, this increase has gone hand in hand with an increase in commuting time. At a global level, the number of cars on the road has increased from 650 million to 900 million between 2005 and 2014, and most of this increase happened in China and in southern developing countries. When addressing these different challenges in the framework of energy transition we come up against the issue of the superposing and entangling of territories. Indeed, at a political level, metropolises spread generally across several municipalities, even several administrative regions, and do not always have an administrative body or metropolitan government, but they are sometimes the object of particular attention from national States. At the technical level, energy networks impose their own logic, which is linked to the layout of supply and distribution lines and technical constraints. Electricity supply is organised according to areas of concession, which correspond to companies. Finally, the social geography of the metropolis intersects these different dimensions. We can fully understand that, even if we must conceive energy transition by basing ourselves on the specific conditions of territories, its implementation requires a trans-territorial process, which combines these different spaces of organisation. It is thus not the case of a single technical issue, but a process that involves governance, in other the words the capacity to create dialogues between these different levels and implement the appropriate incentive-based instruments.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Conclusion For certain thinkers the contemporary energy crisis notably leads to the necessity of re-localising human societies, in other words the redevelopment of proximities and the need to address sustainability at a regional level. This reflection is concretely expressed in policies that aim to promote short circuits for the supply of food, but also in the development of the decision-making process at the territorial level that will give citizens more say in the matter. On a more basic level, these reflections draw up a new utopia that is a consequence of the weakening of States and the problems that stem from uncontrolled globalisation in favour of solutions of proximity. The reflection about energy transition and territories is linked to these approaches by developing the autonomy of territories in relation to energy resources, models of consumption and decision-making processes. We also clearly see a disruptive approach to the organisation of energy systems both at a technical and political level. However, we should not push this reasoning too far. Energy systems are still dominated, in quantitative terms, by massive and centralised means of conversion that are structured by large technical networks and regulated by States. Therefore, the issue is not so much one of substituting one model for another, but discovering how these two ways of structuring energy systems can be linked together by making the best use of experience, while at the same time imagining new ways to make them work. Transition does not mean breaking with the past.

Bibliography Bafoil, F., F. Fodor and D. Le Roux (2014), L’accès à l’énergie en Europe. Les précaires invisibles. Paris, Presses de Sciences Po, 300 p. Bridge, G., S. Bouzarovski, M. Bradschaw and N. Eyre (2013), "Geographies of Energy Transition: Space, Place and the Low-Carbon Economy", Journal of Energy Policy, 53, pp. 331-340. Grubler, A. (2012), "Energy Transition Research, Insights and Cautionary Tales", Journal of Energy Policy, 50, pp. 8-16. Laville, B., S. Thiébault and A. Euzen (ed.) (2015), Quelles solutions face au changement climatique ? CNRS Editions, Paris, 2015, 382 p. Pilo, F. (2016), "Rio de Janeiro: Regularising Energy Consumption in Favelas through Reshaping Consumers into Customers", in Luque A. and J. Silver (eds) Energy, Power and Protest on the Urban Grid. Geographies of the Electric City. London, Routledge: pp. 67-85. Prévôt-Schapira, M.-F. and S. Velut (2013), « Buenos Aires : l’introuvable transition énergétique d’une métropole fragmentée », Flux 3 N° 93 - 94, pp. 19-30. Solomon, B. and K. Krishna (2011), "The Coming Sustainable Energy Transition: History, Strategies, and Outlook", Journal of Energy Policy, 39, pp. 7422-7431. Velut, S. (2015), « Transition énergétique », in Euzen A., L. Eymard et F. Gail, Le développement durable à découvert, éditions du CNRS.

1.3. Energy, Power and society: Anthropological Approaches[4] Pierre-Yves Le Meur – IRD

The modern world is being shaken by multiple – economic, political and environmental – crises that mainly concern energy issues. They concern both questions regarding the supply of fossil energy sources and the massive environmental damage caused by these same energy sources. The use of hydrocarbons, large-scale pollution and global warming thus tend to mutually reinforce each other and the search for alternative energies is becoming a vital urgency, to which the solutions are not simply techno-scientific, but also deeply political. The manifestations of the contemporary energy crisis are diverse: the deepening of conflicts surrounding energy resources; the rapid spread and globalisation of problems, particularly via the multiplying effect of the raw materials market; a disorderly race to find alternative solutions, from renewable energies to nuclear energy, without forgetting shale gas; negotiations, often after international regulations, which become binding, a (still weak) trend towards the re-localising of energy-consuming productions; a transformation of consumption habits, but also pressure for the decentralisation/re-localising of the production of renewable energies. The “absolute” character of the energy crisis (or transition), and its both local and global effects, make it a subject “worthy of reflection” for anthropology and, more generally social sciences. The recent multiplication of publications on this topic are testimony to this: Love (2008); Strauss et al. (2013); Boyer (2014); Tyfield and Urry, (2014); Love and Isenhour (2016) to name but a few. We might think that this interest of anthropologists in energy issues is new, the result of a convergence between transformations in the socio-political context and developments in the subject itself: it is thought that this convergence lies at the origin of the construction of new ethnographical subjects and the taking into account of the various processes that are encompassed by the term “globalisation”. We will see that this is not the case, as energy issues are an integral part of the studies of societies, and anthropology in particular. We may even argue that it’s the long history of [4] I thank here Elsa Faugère, an anthropologist at the Institut national de recherche agronomique (INRA), who began the bibliographical work at the end of this article but was unfortunately not able to partcipate in the rest of this work.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia anthropological interest in the energy issue that explains its current pro-activeness in the face of the new challenges linked to access to energy sources and their uses. After a first session devoted to the presentation of the dual energy and anthropology context that will be the backdrop of this chapter, the second session will make a historical detour to examine how anthropology has addressed the issue of energy for more than a century. In the third section, we will return to what is new in energy anthropology in relation to contemporary changes and crises. The conclusion will allow us discuss the challenges that contemporary energy anthropology must rise to.

1.3.1. Dual context: Energy and Anthropology Energy Context

“Life on Earth is driven by energy. Autotrophs take it from solar radiation and heterotrophs take it from autotrophs. Energy captured slowly by photosynthesis is stored up, and as denser reservoirs of energy have come into being over the course of Earth’s history, heterotrophs that could use more energy evolved to exploit them. Homo sapiens is such a heterotroph; indeed, the ability to use energy extra-somatically (outside the body) enables human beings to use far more energy than any other heterotroph that has ever evolved. The control of fire and the exploitation of fossil fuels have made it possible for Homo sapiens to release, in a short time, vast amounts of energy that accumulated long before the species appeared” (Price, 1995: 301).

The energy issue lies at the heart of the production of societies, it is not an element that is exterior to societies, a sort of contextual material factor that contributes to the explanation of crises and conflicts whose real driving forces lie elsewhere. Energy and power are intrinsically linked, which gives the term “energopolitics/power” coined by Dominic Boyer (2011) by analogy – and in complementarity – with Foucauldian bio-politics and bio-power (Marchetti and Salomoni, 2004): “power over energy has been the companion and collaborator of power of life and population from the beginning”. The link between water mastery and political regimes has long been the subject of attention from Marx, then Wittfogel to whom we owe the notion of “oriental despotism” (1957). This much-criticised term has recently been reused to describe the triangular relationship between water mastery, infrastructure and power politics (Obertreis et al., 2016). The intrinsic link between energy issues, the establishment of States and political regimes has been particularly explored by Timothy Mitchell in his founding study Carbon Democracy:

“Political possibilities were opened up or narrowed down by different ways of organising the flow and concentration of energy, and these possibilities were enhanced or limited by arrangements of people, finance, expertise and violence that were assembled in relationship to the distribution and control of energy” (Mitchell, 2013).

Energy, Power and society: Anthropological Approaches In the same vein, Boyer (2011) also notes that “the staggering significance of energy as the undercurrent and integrating force for all other modes and institutions of modern power has remained remarkably silent.”. The relationship between power and society has often taken on a conflicting form to the point that the image of war, resources war (Ballard and Banks, 2003), coal war in the immediate aftermath of the Second World War or oil war in the 1970s ended up by blurring the boundaries between metaphor and real war: the Iraq war in 1991 and 2003 were indeed wars, and they were also oil wars. The energy issue has occupied the centre stage of the economic and geopolitical scene since the 1973 oil crisis at least, which saw the oil-producing countries organise themselves to impose their prices on consumers in northern countries, with the tacit approval of the United States that was thus able to profit from its own hydrocarbon resources. Oil became the object towards which converged contemporary environmental, political and economic tensions and crises. Oil slicks became recurrent disasters. From the Torrey Canyon in the English Channel in 1967 to BP oil rig Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010 as well as the Exxon Valdez off the coast of Alaska in 1989 – and without forgetting the sabotage of the Kuwaiti oil wells by Iraq during the first gulf war – the list of oil disasters is long. The intrinsic link between fossil fuels (coal then hydrocarbons), political regimes and colonial expansion, brilliantly analysed by Mitchell (2013), must not allow us to forget the importance of the nuclear industry in the global economy, the geopolitics of wars and environmental crises since 1945. In this regard, the crisis of Chernobyl in the Ukraine in 1986 – whose radioactive cloud miraculously came to halt at the French borders, which was a sign of the power of the communications’ apparatus of the nuclear French State – (Hecht 2009) and of Fukushima in Japan in 2011 provide some all too telling examples (see Dupuy, 2002, 2005 for a very stimulating reflection about the nuclear issue and, more broadly, the notion of risk and disaster). The “energy problem” (Urry, 2014) is no longer “only” synonymous with economic crises, environmental disasters and geopolitical tensions, it has become, at a higher level, the symbol of a systemic, planetary crisis, in the context of the dawning of a new geopolitical era characterised by its human origins, the Anthropocene (Sayre, 2012). The effects of this crisis have spread to all levels of the organisation of social life and ecosystems. Behind its manifold expressions, the acceleration of the globalisation of problems, the challenges linked to the negotiation of international regulations and the often disorderly race to find alternative solutions, it obliges us to think again as much about lifestyles, methods of production and consumption – of goods in general but also energy – as about the relation between the State and the environment.

Anthropological Context Since the 1970s, the discipline of anthropology has entered a new phase – from which it has not totally emerged – of bringing into question its methods and its objects, and the renewal of these. These renewals have particularly branched out into two complementary directions. On the one hand, this means going further than the micro-local and the logic – whose heuristic productivity remains undeniable – of ethnographical monographs, in order to extend the focal length

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia – “studying-up” to use the famous expression coined by Laura Nader (1980) – and take into account the increasingly flagrant importance – even though this is by no means new – of global processes (Appadurai, 1996; Tsing, 2004). Going further than traditional objects and places appears to be vital for the discipline, if it wishes to remain abreast of the transformations of the contemporary world that is crossing, often brutally, its habitual terrains. The other direction taken by the renewal of anthropology concerns the objects it studies, without, however, having to necessarily change terrain: any anthropologist working in the rural environment in West Africa ends up coming across a development programme, a Non-governmental organisation (NGO) or an expert on mission. This was true in the 1980s and, currently, this same anthropologist runs the risk of coming across a oil field, a multi-national company or other experts on mission, whether he’s working in Niger, Ghana or in Papua New Guinea. The obligation to extend the focal length is not immediate – new objects come to the anthropologist – but it quickly appears necessary in so far as to understand what is at stake in a development project or in a mining or oil enclave, it is necessary to question the stakeholders involved whose back bases and reasons to do what they are doing are not local. Hence the importance of a multi-scale and multi-site approach (Marcus, 1995; Revel, 1996): the anthropology of globalisation is necessarily an anthropology of (multi-) localizations. In this context, energy appears as an issue that is particularly “worthy of reflection” for anthropology: the “absolute” character of the energy crisis, whose ramifications are political, economic, environmental, cultural, and religious, its effects that are both local and global, the multiplication of tensions and conflicts surrounding energy, chime with the renewal of an anthropological project that continues to manage the productive tension between holism and the points of view of players involved. The contribution of anthropology, and the ethnographical approach in particular – both method and epistemology – that underpins it, is to go beyond unilateral, mono-causal or reductionist explanations that are often very normative, and which often dominate political and academic fields, as for example the broadly defined (and not very sociological) notion of “resource curse” (see for example Watts for a salutary criticism (Watts, 2004)). One last point, contemporary anthropology is confronted with an apparent paradox: science of man in an era when mankind possesses the power of total destruction – with the luxury of choice between the atomic bomb and climate change (Dupuy, 2005) – anthropology must face up to an injunction to decentre in order to take into account all non-humans, biological or not, natural or not, which inhabit the earth (Latour, 1999; Descola, 2005) and sometimes become subjects of rights (Hermitte, 2011). This means somehow developing a non-anthropocentric anthropology in the Anthropocene age – an idea close to that of extending the notion of governmentality to system Earth – (Lövbrand et al., 2009).

1.3.2. History of Anthropology and Energy The apparent newness of anthropologists’ interest in the energy issue, which is symbolised by a blossoming of articles and special issues, must be put in perspective. On the one hand, it raises questions, if energy is, as emphasised above, at the heart of our societies and human evolution

Energy, Power and society: Anthropological Approaches – energy was not in fact selected to appear in the Dictionnaire de l’ethnologie et de l’anthropologie published by Bonte and Izard in 1991. On the other hand, this newness is finally only apparent, which does not mean that the energy topic has been problematized in its correct place and in a sufficiently visible manner in the field of anthropology. We can diagrammatically distinguish two big trends in the way energy has been dealt with in the history of anthropology, one falling in the scope of structural functionalism that dominated in the first part of the 20th century, the other marking the return of evolutionism in the middle of this same century.

Structural Functionalism Approach The first approach falls into the anthropology of techniques and material culture. It is part of a classically holistic vision of anthropology that focuses on the study of “exotic” and reduced-size societies (Malinowski, 1935). The issue of energy appears as a dimension in the project for the global under standing of the society studied, without being the object of specific problematizing. This project required that attention be given to material and immaterial conditions of existence, and thus, amongst others, to the natural resources used for food, housing, transport and exchange. The primary sources of energy at the disposal of the societies studied by anthropologists at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century were wood and coal, human and animal energy, and wind and water energy. Wood and coal were used for cooking, heating and lighting, while human and animal energy were used for agriculture and transport. Finally, water and wind were used to make mills turn to transform cereals into food.

(Neo) evolutionary Approach The second anthropological approach to energy addresses the subject using an evolutionary model, whose roots may be found in the 19th century. At this time, evolutionary theory constituted the matrix of scientific reflection, whether it concerned natural or human sciences. Evolutionary anthropology aimed at situating human societies on a scale of progress that went from the primitive to the civilised via different intermediary stages. It had a very normative aim and was used as a repertoire of justification for colonial enterprise (Thomas, 1996). Evolutionism was violently criticised by the founders of contemporary anthropology in both the United Kingdom – Bronislaw Malinowski’s social anthropology– and in the United States – Franz Boas’ cultural anthropology. There were various reasons for this criticism, but they globally targeted the very speculative and normative character of evolutionism, and showed a preference for the study of societies in their concrete functioning rather than for the reconstruction of a very hypothetical trajectory in the absence of reliable historical sources. Evolutionism made a big comeback in the second half of the 20th century – it never left the colonial political arenas – under the cover of development and particularly the theory of modernisation. It also impregnated the very mechanistic historical materialism of many Marxists and also underlies the cultural ecology of anthropologists such as Julian Steward (1955).

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia The evolutionary approach to energy seeks to highlight a correlation between the energy issue and cultural evolution.

“All living beings struggle to live, to perpetuate their respective kinds. In the human species the struggle for survival assumes the cultural form. The human struggle for existence expresses itself in a never-ending attempt to make of culture a more effective instrument with which to provide security of life and survival of the species. And one of the ways of making culture a more powerful instrument is to harness and to put to work within it more energy per capita per year” (White, 1943).

This neo-evolutionism was to remain isolated in the field of energy and the work of Leslie White did not catch on at first, in spite of a context marked by the dawning of the nuclear age – military then civil –, the Cold war and post Second World War challenges of coal that, among other issues, were behind the construction of, via the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) that was created in 1951, the European Union.

Political Need for Social Sciences in the 1970s: A Missed Opportunity? The 1970s and 80s were marked by a oil crisis, the rise of ecological contestation and a failed energy transition. The new interest in energy for anthropologists, which was linked to the nuclear challenge and the oil crisis, emerged in the 1970s, and the question regarding energy transition and renewable energies was already raised (Nader, 1980; see also Adams, 1978). In the USA, the Academy of Science’s energy commission commissioned a report that was published in 1980 under the title Energy choices in a democratic society. Laura Nader, a respected anthropologist in the field of law, who was to devote herself strongly to energy issues, strongly affirmed in this report that: “energy is a social problem and not a technological one”. Most of the studies from this period remain however rather historical, particularly regarding the social and political transformations caused by the electrification of the Occident (for example Schivelbusch, 1988). There were indeed a certain number of studies related to the rights of indigenous peoples and environmental impacts (oil, nuclear, uranium; see the chapters by Hiesinger and Johnston et al. in Nader, 2010). However, the energy issue was largely left to engineers and economists. We can therefore finally talk about a missed opportunity in the 1970s and 80s, at least partially, for social sciences to address energy issues, particularly anthropology, in a context where there was an emerging political and social need, tentative admittedly, for the discipline.

Energy, Power and society: Anthropological Approaches

1.3.3. Emergence of Crises and Recent Developments in the Anthropology of Energy After the turning points of the 1940-50s – beginning of the nuclear era – and 1970-1980 – oil crisis and end of a cycle of “naïve” modernisation” –, the 2000s saw the convergence of several crises that triggered a systemic or global crisis that affected the whole of the planet. We observed a multiplication of conflicts concerning resources (Banks and Ballard, 2003), from oil wars – such as the two wars in Iraq – to water wars, from the Middle East to Bolivia – subject of the film by Iciar Bollain, También la lluvia, 2010. The challenge of the big dams, whether they are in Central America (Raimbeau, 2016) or on the Mekong River, is also becoming a source of acute tensions and various forms of violence. The war for energy resources is being waged at different levels and States are using various repertoires – nationalism of resources, corporate social responsibility, indigenous rights – and systems - Impact and Benefit Agreements/IBA, international accords, etc. – to justify these wars. One of the challenges of these negotiations concerns the scale of localisation of the implemented policies, between local accords that sometimes clearly circumvent state bodies (O’Faircheallaigh, 2013; Le Meur et al., 2013), nationalist positions (Chaloping-March, 2104, on the subject of the Philippines) and the globalisation of norms, self-regulation by the extractive sector and “offshoring” (Urry, 2014). We may add to these transformations, which are somewhat internal to the energy arena, global changes linked in particular to climate change and the dawning of the Anthropocene whose characterisation is intrinsically linked to the energy issue. These developments, which involve the planet’s future, are the source of controversies (some of which are carefully nurtured by industrial players; see Kirsch, 2014 on the notion of “corporate science”) and a late and disordered awareness.

Inputs through Practices and Policies In this context, anthropology – not alone of course, as crosscutting between disciplines is as vital in this domain as it is others – could play a key role as anthropology as a science of multi-scale human logistics (Crate & Nuttall, 2009; Crate, 2011, about the anthropology of climate change for example). Indeed, over the last ten years we have observed a blossoming of studies in social sciences and particularly in anthropology concerning energy issues. In this contemporary blossoming, certain guiding principles are emerging in the literature and we can schematically distinguish the emergence of two axes: - an axis focusing on energy-consumption practices linked to the transformations in lifestyles and domestic relations; - an axis focusing on energy policies at different levels and the conflicts associated with them that may concern access to energy reserves and their control, or the choices made between the options in the subject. The common anthropological approach of these two axes allows us to identify and analyse the power games, power relationships and the plurality of knowledge and norms that structure energy

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia issues all along the chain from production – and therefore the negotiation about choices in the matter –, to consumption and management impact, via regulatory forms, methods of governance and controversies concerning energy issues. Furthermore, analyses are highlighting the mutually constitutive nature of technology, society and energy policies, according to a “techno-political” approach (Hecht, 2009; Strauss et al., 2013). The question of lifestyles constitutes a particularly rich entrance gate for an ethnographical approach. The energy challenge and environmental and economic concerns that it feeds tend to impregnate our daily lives in an increasingly explicit way. Energy consumption practices are increasingly considered through a socio-environmental prism, beyond the question of cost – which reflects for example the decisions made concerning the purchase of a car or insulating a house. We can see this clearly in the choice of food consumption that combines bio-products and local suppliers. Consumption practices are at the same time profoundly modelled by increasingly binding norms and political choices that go beyond the individual consumer – massive support for diesel cars in France for example. Dealing with the energy issue goes beyond the conjunction between choice and the respect of norms, in a logic of subjectivisation and governmentalization, to enter into the field of collective action and politics. The example of the island of Samsø in Denmark where the local population has organised itself to become self-sufficient, even producing a slight surplus, in energy terms, is emblematic in regard to this (Kolbert, 2008). At the other end of the spectrum, the lifestyles of populations may be profoundly transformed by their unsolicited insertion into energy production, as we can see with uranium mines (Johnston et al. in Nader, 2010) or with big hydroelectric dams (Obertreis et al., 2016). In this case also, both everyday practices and local energy policy are reconfigured.

Anthropology and the Energy Arena Energy practices and policies are mutually linked because together they are the components of the construction of society and political regimes. Thus, the choices made locally to produce energy, particularly one’s own energy, are a challenge to the national agencies that produce their electricity via a network whose management is centralised. The question of scales and how they are articulated – the multi-scale character of energy policies – is thought about in different ways depending on whether we are dealing with a centralised or decentralised system for the production of energy. This choice does indeed have impacts in terms of participation in the production of the energy policy and therefore, more generally, the political practice. The question of the relation between society and energy is thus inseparable from the challenges relating to transparency, responsibility, democracy and participation. In this regard, close analysis of the challenges, impacts, controversies and conflicts associated with access to and control of energy resources, as with the options and choices made on the subject, is more than ever essential. In this context where technological and scientific issues are central, the control of knowledge and the role of expertise and science constitute major challenges and are the subjects of very big

Energy, Power and society: Anthropological Approaches power struggles between firms and States. This is demonstrated in the examples of Kirsch (2014) and Jasanoff (2012) who respectively developed the notions of “corporate science” and “regulatory science”. Anthropology has taken an interest in the functioning and impacts of the energy options that are currently the subject of much debate, namely biofuels and hydroelectricity, which both have the advantage of being in the field of renewable energies and thus appear as alternatives to the use of fossil fuels. However, biofuel needs space and the land devoted to it will be taken away from land used for food production. There is a politico-ethical, and also social and economic choice to be made. The development of biofuel often requires the implementation of large capitalist farming operations that gain access to the land via mechanisms that are often not very transparent and dispossess small holders. These mechanisms, which are varied – concession, purchase, intimidation, violence, corruption – are captured in the notion of land grabbing (Borras et al., 2010), and they are part of the forms of proletarianization and accumulation by dispossession that are characteristic of contemporary capitalism according to Harvey (2003). Hydroelectricity too devours space and homes and the construction of dams causes the displacement of populations and the destruction of natural and agricultural spaces. It therefore raises the question about the rights of the populations affected, smallholders and/or indigenous peoples, and the negotiation of compensation. The players involved are indeed the States but also water multinationals and environmental NGOs and associations that defend the rights of the affected populations. What’s more, we find this same issue concerning the privatisation of rights over resources versus the defence of indigenous rights in the context of the development of renewable maritime energies, i.e. wind and tidal energy (Kerr et al., 2015). Finally, the geopolitical dimension of these projects is quite substantial when the river basins are very large, flow through several borders and are situated in conflict areas (the Euphrates and Tigris Basins). The case of the Mekong Basin is exemplary in this regard (Dosch and Hensengerth, 2005), as it raises questions about the geopolitics of water – development aid, regional integration and nationalism of resources –, the environmental impact of large dams – lack of water downstream, salinization, sedimentation –, local energy policy – land issues, access to infrastructures – and multi-scale power struggles – local populations, governments, NGOs, donors, etc. Hydrocarbons have recently become a subject of study for anthropology and different standpoints are adopted. The way in which the oil enclaves fit into local and national society in the form of enclaves connected to certain politico-administrative levels constitutes a first angle of attack that allows the comparison between extractive enclaves and developmental enclaves for example, as demonstrated by Ferguson (2005) in his article “Seeing like an oil company”. The graft metaphor has been used (Olivier de Sardan, 1995; Magrin, 2013), but a priori it works less well for extraction activities – we could extend its scope to mining activities (Le Meur, 2015) – in so far as, unlike a development project, a mining project does not aim to transplant, but to create enclaves and does not generate the same effects as the development machine (Ferguson, 2005). However, current developments tend to relativize the difference, particularly with the rise in power of the corporate social responsibility (CSR) discourse.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia In any case, the extractive sector (energy and mining) and development present analogies from the point of view of the controversies that these objects trigger regarding the “good” positioning and “legitimate” commitment of anthropologists. Upstream of this issue, there is also a similarity in the way these two worlds generate situations of interface marked by strong asymmetries in terms of power and movable resources, and deep normative and cognitive discontinuities. The anthropology of the energy-extracting sector also focused on its materiality. Work carried out by Mitchell (2013) shows how the physical functioning of the coal economy, via the taking control (strikes, picketing) of the strategic nodes in the chain of production and circulation of coal, democratic progress owing to the threat of worker and union movements, while oil was delocalised to imperial peripheries, collusions between extracting companies and governments – particularly in the United states and Britain, but also France and Germany – and the extension of the production and distribution of the hydrocarbons network have run in a very different direction. Hannah Appel (2012), in her study of how oil rigs functioned in the Gulf of Guinea, developed the notion of “modularity” to show that the notion of offshore production is not the simple reflection of geographical localisation, but that it results from a techno-social assembling that combines technologies and a workforce that is also mobile, the latter being inserted into a tissue of contracts and sub-contracts. The whole of this is transportable or transposable, thus allowing a relative disconnection of the gas or oil enclave from its near context. This disconnection is certainly not absolute, it cannot be, be it only because the oil or gas must leave the enclave to be sold and consumed. A central issue is thus the mode of connection between the oil or gas enclave and the exterior, directly with the highest level of the host State, via a clientelist rationale, or indeed within the framework of a (more) transparent legal-administrative institutional system. The reality may indeed combine elements from the two poles, while a third – local society and the affected communities – is taken into account via compensation arrangements, recognition of land rights and corporate social responsibility – see for example Weiner, 2007, for the Kutubu gas project in Papua New Guinea. The case of East Timor for its part highlights the geo-political issues regarding the control of hydrocarbons in the framework of a very complex and violent decolonisation. From the Indonesian occupation from 1975, which was of an almost genocidal nature – one third of the population disappeared during this period – to the brutality of Australian regional imperialism, the margins of manoeuvre of the new independent State appear to be narrow. This is particularly true in the case of controlling offshore gas and oil which is the object of difficult negotiations with Australia, particularly concerning the delimitation of maritime boundaries and the attribution of oil and gas fields (Catry, 2004). Furthermore, the environmental challenge and the management of revenue via a hydrocarbon fund raise questions about State construction, in terms of the transparency of the management of this revenue and concerns about future generations (Drysdale, 2008).

Energy, Power and society: Anthropological Approaches Map 4. Exploration and Exploitation of the Zone of Cooperation between Australia and East Timor

Source: Durand (2002).

The analysis of the extractive enclave in its relations with the exterior thus involves the identification of different levels of enclavement and connections: ideological, institutional material enclaves. These articulations concern the control of revenue and power relationships, and they raise, in a very direct and sometimes head on way, questions concerning State construction, sovereignty and citizenship. This is what Penelope Anthias shows for example with the concept of “hydrocarbon citizenship”, which she developed using the case of Bolivia in order to emphasise the intrinsic place of hydrocarbons in the construction of citizenship, the nation and the State (Anthias, for publication).

1.3.4. The Challenges of Energy Anthropology Energy anthropology is not an autonomous disciplinary field. The production, circulation and control of energy are an integral part of the production of societies and political regimes. This is not new but the observation and analysis of this interweaving are relatively recent, as shown by the reception of Mitchell’s work (2013) “Carbon Democracy”, which was first published in 2011 (Urry, 2013). Basically,

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia it is White’s project revisited, stripped of its evolutionary aspects and approached from a directly political angle.

“[E]nergy is a field of technical uncertainty rather than determinism, and (…) the building of solutions to future energy needs is also the building of new forms of collective life” (Mitchell, 2013 : 238).

However, a new factor has been introduced that muddies the waters, namely climate change associated with an acceleration and a constellation of global changes that are increasingly difficult to control. The dawning of the anthropecene era reflects the – late – awareness of the footprint, which is largely irreversible, of these changes, of the responsibility of mankind and the fragility of “system earth”. Anthropological research in the anthropocene era involves taking these changes into account, doing away with – or at least questioning – the supposed localism of the discipline. This context implies a further decentring for anthropologists, in relation to a trend that we might imagine to be “anthropocentric by nature”: anthropology as a science of man. In fact, the age-old interest for the multifaceted modalities of the human-nature link and the large comparativism that is an intrinsic part of the anthropological project constitute a big comparative advantage for the discipline (Descola, 2005) in terms of understanding the politics of nature (Latour, 1999). Finally, the turning point of the anthropocene era must not make us lose sight of the heterogeneity of the time scapes that are at work in the energy issue: geological, ecological, political, cultural, etc. In this context, some theoretical compasses come in useful. Here, we think of the Foucaldian approach concerning the relationships between power/knowledge regimes and the concepts associated with governmentality, bio politics and bio power. Bio politics insists on the government of individuals as bodies and subjects, and on the government of population taken as a whole, a social body, calculated, measured and governed via security, health and economic systems. The widening of the notion to one of energy power/politics (Boyer, 2011) expresses the fecundity of this approach while at the same time supplementing it. The energy issue and its historical mutations – from coal to hydrocarbons without forgetting nuclear and, at present, renewable energies – appear as components of modern power – and also its inertia when faced with crises, as we can see in debates about nuclear energy (Hecht, 2009) and shale gas (Willow and Wylie, 2014). Bio politics and energy politics must not be perceived as opposing notions, but as being integrated in a play of mutually constitutive relations. The necessity of taking the materiality of energy into account calls for another “theoretical compass”, namely that of the sociology of the sciences and techniques and of the actor-network (Latour 2005). The integration of humans and non-humans into the analysis of the energy chain, the materiality of its functioning and the impacts of the latter on the global political economy are essential elements to be taken into account in order to situate the constitutive role of energy in the production of society. In this context, the challenges of an anthropology of energy that is attentive both to contemporary changes and historical heritage may be summarised in the following way: we first need to develop a broad, integrative vision that is attentive to cultural differences and the asymmetries of power in the relationships between humans and non-humans. In order to do this, we must seek to identify the capacities and competences of the players, spot social innovations and pinpoint the inequalities

Energy, Power and society: Anthropological Approaches of language and power. Finally, it seems a necessity to promote an anthropology that is both fundamental and applied to and implicated in energy.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Durand, F. (2002), Timor-Oriental, pays au carrefour de l’Asie et du Pacifique : un atlas historique, Presses universitaires de Marne-la-Vallée (France) et Irasec (Bangkok, Thaïlande). Ferguson, J. (2005), “Seeing Like an Oil Company: Space, Security, and Global Capital in Neoliberal Africa”, American Anthropologist 107 (3) : 377–382. Harvey, D. (2003), The New Imperialism, Oxford : Oxford University Press. Hecht, G. (2009), The Radiance of France. Nuclear Power and National Identity after World War II, Cambridge : MIT Press. Hermitte, M.-A. (2011), « La nature, sujet de droit ? », Annales. Histoire, Sciences Sociales 66 (1) : 173-212. Jasanoff, S. (2012), Science and Public Reason, Abingdon, Oxon : Routledge-Earthscan. Kerr, S., J. Colton and G. Whright (2015), “Rights and Ownership in Sea Country: Implications of Marine Renewable Energy for Indigenous and Local Communities”, Marine Policy 52 : pp. 118-115. Kirsch, S. (2014), Mining Capitalism. The Relationships between Corporations and their Critics, Oakland : University of California Press. Kolbert, E. (2008), “The Island in the Wind”, The New Yorker, 7 and 14 July (repris dans Nader, 2010 : pp. 500-513). Latour, B. (2005), Reassembling the Social. An Introduction to Actor-Network Theory, Oxford : Oxford University Press. Latour, B. (1999), Politiques de la nature. Comment faire entrer les sciences en démocratie, Paris : La Découverte. Le Meur, P.-Y. (2015), "Anthropology and the Mining Arena in New Caledonia: Issues and Positionalities", Anthropological Forum 25 (4) : pp. 405-427. Le Meur, P.-Y., N. Arndt, P. Christmann and V. Geronimi (2016), "Deep-Sea Mining Prospects in French Polynesia: Governance and the Politics of Time", Marine Policy (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. marpol.2016.07.020; in press). Le Meur, P.-Y., L.S. Horowitz and T. Mennesson (2013), "‘Horizontal’ and ‘Vertical’ Diffusion: The Cumulative Influence of Impact and Benefit Agreements (IBAs) on Mining Policy-Production in New Caledonia", Resources Policy 38 : pp. 648–656. Lövbrand, E., J. Stripple and B. Witman (2009), "Earth System Governmentality. Reflections on Science in the Anthropocene", Global Environmental Change 19 : pp. 7-13. Love, T. (2008), “Anthropology and the Fossil Fuel Era”, Anthropology Today 24 (2) : pp. 3-4. Love, T. and C. Isenhour (eds.) (2016), "Energy and Economy: Recognizing High-Energy Modernity as a Historical Period", special edition Economic Anthropology 3. Magrin, G. (2013), Voyage en Afrique rentière. Une lecture géographique des trajectoires du développement, Paris : Publications de la Sorbonne.

Energy, Power and society: Anthropological Approaches Malinowski, B. (1935), Coral Gardens and their Magics, London : Allen & Unwin. Marchetti, V., A. Salomoni (eds.) (2004), Michel Foucault. Lectures at the Collège de France 1974-1975, Picador, New York. Marcus, G. (1995), "Ethnography in/of the World System: The Emergence of Multi-Sited Ethnographt", Annual Review of Anthropology 24 : pp. 95-117. Mitchell, T. (2013), Carbon Democracy: Political Power in the Age of Oil, London : Verso. Nader, L. (ed.) (2010), The Energy Reader, London : Wiley-Blackwell. Nader, L. (1980), Energy Choices in a Democratic Society, The Report of the Consumption, Location, and Occupational Patterns Resource Group, Synthesis Panel of the Committee on Nuclear and Alternative Energy Systems, National Research Council. Obertreis, J., T. Moss, P. Mollinga and C. Bichsel (2016), "Water, Infrastructure and Political Rule: Introduction to the Special Issue", Water Alternatives 9 (2) : pp. 168-181. O’Faircheallaigh, C. (2013), "Community Development Agreements in the Mining Industry: An Emerging Global Phenomenon", Community Development 44 : pp. 222–238. Olivier de Sardan, J.-P. (1995), Anthropologie et développement, Paris: APAD-Karthala. Price, D. (1995), “Energy and Human Evolution”, Population and Environment 16 (4) : pp. 301-319. Raimbeau, C. (2016), « Ruée vers la « houille blanche » en Amérique centrale. Qui a tué Berta Cáceres ? », Le Monde Diplomatique, october : p. 13. Revel, J. (ed.) (1996), Jeux d’échelles. La micro-analyse à l’expérience, Paris : EHESS-Gallimard-Seuil. Sayre, N. (2012), "The Politics of Anthropogenic", Annual Review of Anthropology 41: pp. 57-70. Schivelbusch, W. (1988), Disenchanted Night: The Industrialization of Light in the Nineteenth Century, Berkeley : The University of California Press. Steward, J. (1955), Theory of Cukture Change: The Methodology of Multilinear Evolution, University of Illinois Press. Strauss, S., S. Rupp and T. Love (eds) (2013), Cultures of Energy: Power, Practices, Technologies, Walnut Creek, CA : Left Coast Press. Thomas, N. (1996) (2nd ed.), Out of Time: History and Evolution in Anthropological Discourse, Ann Arbor : The University of Michigan Press. Tsing, A. (2004), Friction: An Ethnography of Global Connection, Princeton : Princeton University Press. Tyfield, D. and J. Urry (eds.) (2014), "Energy and Society", special issue Theory, Culture and Society, 31 (5). Urry, J. (2014), "The Problem of Energy", Theory, Culture & Society 31 (5) : pp. 3-20.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Urry, J. (2013), Societies beyond Oil: Oil Dregs and Social Futures, Londres : Zed Books. Watts, M. (2004), "Resource Curse? Governmentality, Oil and Power in the Niger Delta, Nigeria", Geopolitics 9 (1) : pp. 50-80. Weiner, J. (2007), "The Foi Incorporated Land Group: Group Definition and Collective Action in the Kutubu Oil Project Area, Papua New Guinea", in: Glaskin, K. et J. Weiner (eds.) Customary Land Tenure and Registration in Australia and Papua New Guinea : Anthropological Perspectives, Canberra, ANU Press : pp. 117-134. Wittfogel, K. (1957), Oriental Despotism: A Comparative Study of Total Power, New Haven, Connecticut : Yale University Press. White, L. (1943), "Energy and the Evolution of Culture", American Anthropologist 45 : pp. 335-356. Willow, A. and S. Wylie (2014), "Politics, Ecology, and the New Anthropology of Energy: Exploring the Emerging Frontiers of Hydraulic Fracking", Journal of Political Ecology 21 : pp. 222-236.

1.4. The Challenges of Bioenergy Transition in Developing Countries Laurent Gazull – CIRAD

The concept of energy transition refers to two big socio-technical changes: the switch from fossil energies to renewable energies and the reduction of energy consumption through the improvement of energy efficiency and a switch to models of moderation in energy consumption, all of this in the framework of global objectives for the reduction of greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane. In the global context, among the available forms of renewable energy, bioenergy, because of its local and renewable character and the fact that it is non-intermittent and carbon neutral, is set to play an increasingly big role on the global scale. Indeed, the different prospective studies carried out by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that, in order to reach targets for the reduction of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the use of bioenergy, as a substitute for fossil fuels, will have to be multiplied fourfold before 2100. Bioenergy represents any form of energy or energy service produced by biomass: heat, electricity, and motive power. It produces energy through a conversion of agricultural, forest, or urban (urban waste) biomass into solid (logs of wood, cereal stalks), liquid (ethanol, biodiesel) or gas (biogas) biofuels. In the context of developing countries in Southeast Asia, as in Africa or in certain regions of Latin America, energy transition manifests itself in particular forms. Indeed, these countries are characterised by i) very low energy consumption; ii) high energy needs for their economic development, particularly in rural zones; and finally, iii) high dependence on biomass, above all wood, as a principal source of energy. This energy is mainly consumed in the so-called “traditional” form of heating for cooking food or heating housing and these systems of energy production that are little dependent on oil are a huge source of income and jobs in the countryside. In these countries, the main challenges of energy transition are therefore neither the reduction of fossil fuel nor a reduction in consumption, but rather the improvement of the energy efficiency of current systems through the use of biomass, an increase in the offer of renewable energies, the development of energy-producing services in the countryside and access to electricity for all.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Furthermore, the major characteristic of biomass-based energy systems is that they first require the creation of production and supply sectors. Thus, if energy transition involves major technical and behavioural changes in ways of consuming and energy conversion, in the bioenergy domain, it also involves changes in modes of agricultural and forest production. Our main objective is to present current or future transitions in the principal agricultural and forestry networks that are already devoted to the production of bioenergy and point out the driving forces and finally underline the social and ecological challenges.

1.4.1. Current Transitions in the Principal Agricultural and Forestry Networks in Southern Countries Five large agricultural sectors are actively participating in the production of bioenergy in Southern countries: palm oil, sugar cane, secondary cereals (maize/sorghum), livestock, and wood production. Thus, on a global scale, nearly 10% of palm oil is transformed into biodiesel, 15% of sugar cane is distilled into bioethanol, an increasing part of animal waste is being burnt, or transformed into biogas for cooking and, finally, more than 50% of the wood produced in the world is being used for the production of cooking energy (OECD, FAO, 2014). These large networks have entered into transition phases where energy transition has become a real production objective that is just as important as primary production. This trend is in the process of spreading to all tropical agricultural networks – cacao, cashew, and cotton – where a growing part of the residue from the main production – grain, sugar, oil – will be devoted to energy production. However, this new outlet requires changes at all levels of the networks, from agricultural production to final consumption, even though these changes vary according to the types of energy that are finally produced: heat, electricity, biofuel, etc.

In the Biomass Production Sector The energy opening is already influencing the development of vegetable matter adapted to energy use, agricultural practices and land use. Thus, while for a long time, varietal selection was geared towards a single market – starch, protein, sucrose, oil or fibre – the prospect of new energy markets is leading researchers and seed companies to produce multi-use varieties. New varieties of sugar cane for example are being developed to produce both sugar and an increasing amount of ligno-cellulosic fibres for the production of electricity in bagasse power stations. Varieties of cane that are only used for energy – with very low sugar content – are also being developed. Likewise, new varieties of sorghum are being developed to produce, at the same time, grain for human and animal consumption, vegetable matter for the production of biogas and polymers for biomaterials. Research is also geared towards varieties whose crop cycles might be adapted to the production of biomass that will be used for energy between two food crops. The objective of an increase in biomass production also changes cropping and harvesting methods. Thus, still in the sugar cane sector, less and less residue is left in the fields and farmers are increasingly

The Challenges of Bioenergy Transition in Developing Countries harvesting plant heads (cabbages) and cane leaves that were traditionally left in the fields because they contained no sugar. In the palm oil sector, some producers are beginning to harvest the year’s dead leaves – the palm tree produces about twenty leaves per year – to feed electricity plants and turning empty fruit bunch fibre, which used to be composted to produce biogas, into methane. Likewise, although still anecdotal, maize stalks are coveted in certain regions of the world to feed the so-called second-generation sectors of biofuel production. In another sector, cocoa pods, which are today left at the side of the field after the beans have been extracted, could be harvested to feed electric power stations. In the livestock domain, the necessity of harvesting waste for the production of biogas leads to the concentration and stalling of livestock to the detriment of free-range herd practices. Finally, in the timber sector, new forms of energy-producing plantations – short-rotation coppice (SRC) – are beginning to appear and the forest industry is increasingly integrating the energy market by recuperating small wood shavings, misshapen trees and logging residue (tree crowns, roots, etc.) Photo 1. Two Examples of New Agricultural Practices for Energy (Electricity): Gathering of Sugar Cane Straw and Palm Leaves

Source: Laurent Gazull.

Finally, bioenergy also brings about changes in crop rotations and land use. Indeed, the electrical power stations and the bio carbon production units need to function throughout the year, whereas many of the crops are seasonal. We can thus observe the development of woody plantations used to complete the bagasse on the perimeters of sugar cane fields, or the introduction of energy producing fodder plants – maize or sorghum biomass - on livestock farms to complement the

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia animal waste in the biogas units. We can also observe the development of agro-forestry models where, for example, manioc for human consumption is associated with acacia plantations in order to produce wood charcoal (see photo 1).

In the Conversion Sector The production of energy, and particularly electricity, within agro-industrial transformation units has existed for a long time. From the beginning of the 20th century sugar refineries were producing electricity from bagasse; the production of heat and electricity from the sawdust ofÂ sawmills is also a practice that has been around a long time, the same is true for producing heat from fruit bunch fibre. But this form of energy production was only conceived for the internal running of biomass treatment plants: sugar extraction, pressing of palm nuts, cutting of wood. Innovation at the beginning of the 21st century lies on the one hand in the diversification of the forms of energy produced by the agricultural networks and particularly in liquid or gas bio carbons; and on the other in the participation of these networks in the local or national distribution of energy: electricity networks, hydrocarbon distribution networks. Henceforth, the agro industry is negotiating the feed-in tariff of their energy with players from the energy sector and is seeking to increase this production network while minimising costs. Several strategies are being implemented: economies of scale that aim to build large power stations fed by several sources of biomass or by numerous collection systems; the improvement of the energy efficiency of the transformation process that aims to minimise the internal energy consumption of the factories in order to distribute more of the remaining energy; the improvement of the energy efficiency of bioenergy production units by investing in modern conversion methods: boilers and high pressure turbines, poly-combustible boilers, ethanol power stations, bio refineries, etc. Thus, the most remarkable progress is to be remarked in the sugar cane sectors where almost all types of strategy have been implemented to increase the production of electricity or ethanol. In many Asian and Latin American countries, in the last twenty years, sugar refineries have become real factories for the production of network electricity and bio carbons. In Brazil or Argentina for example, a hectare of sugar cane produces on average five megawatt hours of electricity per year, that is to say the equivalent of the average consumption of ten Africans, four Vietnamese or six Indonesians. In Southeast Asia, the energy efficiency of sugar refineries is practically two times less, and in Africa almost no factories produce electricity other than for their own consumption. The same observation may be made in almost all the other sectors. Even though many installation projects are underway such as the sawmills of Central Africa, the palm oil pressing factories on the coast of Guinea and in Southeast Asia, and the digesters of large pig farms in China, investment in efficient conversion units that are used to feed distribution networks remain very low in developing countries. The energy produced is still principally devoted to the needs of the factories or to local domestic use.

The Challenges of Bioenergy Transition in Developing Countries Diagram 2. An Example of a Future Poly-combustible Plant, Joined to a Sugar Cane Refinery

Source: Albioma 2016 - http://galion2.albioma.com

In the wood-energy sector and its traditional use for cooking, numerous attempts have already been made to improve the energy efficiency of the conversion at two levels: at the carbonisation level â&#x20AC;&#x201C; transformation of the wood into charcoal, and at the level of cooking facilities: improved hearths. The mills or modern hearths for carbonisation allow us to increase efficiency by a factor of two and improved stoves by a factor of 1.5 on average. Few countries however have succeeded in introducing sustainable modern carbonisation methods for domestic use and most production chains remain inefficient. On the other hand, numerous campaigns for the distribution of improved hearths have been implemented in many countries in Africa, Asia and South America, but their success rate has been very variable. The improved hearths have scarcely reached rural populations, and in urban zones, even though 60% of households have one, their usage rate remains low because they are not adapted to all types of cooking (see diagram 2).

In the Consumption Sector Bioenergy is produced from solid or liquid bio carbons that do not possess the same characteristics as fossil carbons. Likewise, although bioelectricity can be considered to be an almost permanent energy, compared to solar or wind energy, when it is coupled with agricultural production it is often seasonal and somewhat inconstant.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia The use of bioelectricity and bio carbons thus necessitates behavioural changes and the development of adapted equipment that range from wood hearths to flex-fuel cars. Here again the most remarkable change is certainly flex-fuel engines in Brazil. This engine was developed to allow drivers to choose freely between different types of fuel such as petrol, ethanol or a mixture of both. Today, in Brazil, the number of vehicles sold that are equipped with flex-fuel systems has overtaken the number of traditional petrol engine cars. As for biodiesel, it is not necessary to make major modifications to traditional engines. On the other hand, biogas requires adapted equipment to be used either in traditional engines – bi-carburettor – or in stoves. Likewise, the new wood-based, solid combustibles – pellets and briquettes – also require hearths that are adapted to this type of process whether they be for domestic heat production or cooking. In the cooking sector, as we have already pointed out, the adoption and use of improved hearths for wood or charcoal, is still not very widespread, mainly because they are not adapted to traditional cooking methods that require long cooking processes and large quantities of food. Nevertheless, we may suppose that the evolution of eating habits in urban zones towards more rapid cooking and smaller quantities will favour their development in the near future.

1.4.2. The Driving Forces Behind these Changes The driving forces behind these changes throughout the sectors of agricultural and forestry production are multiple. Firstly, the economic argument: the production of bioenergy meets a new need and is part of a market that is becoming international. But this is not the only driving force, and sometimes it is not the most crucial. The production of bioenergy is also the answer to local environmental, political and social objectives.

An Increasing Demand for Bioenergy The trend scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA) foresee an increase in the demand for energy in developing countries of 3% per year until 2030. The energy demand of Asian developing countries should even increase at a rate of 4% per year, that is to say a lot more rapidly than in other regions of the world. In these forecasts, the use of biomass for the production of electricity should increase by 5% per year, traditional usage (cooking and heating) by 6% per year, and the bio carbons sector also by 5% per year. Today, biomass represents about 10% of primary energy production. This proportion should remain stable until 2030, but given the general increase in demand, it is natural that this bioenergy production will increase at the same rate, or even more quickly. According to forecasts, the use of this bioenergy production should nonetheless vary in favour of electricity and transport, to the detriment of traditional uses for cooking (cf. diagram 2 above). Although there is an international market for bioethanol, biodiesel and, recently, for wood pellets, this market represents less than 10% of production and the markets are above all local ones. International exchanges are mainly towards Europe and mainly stem from countries that do not have problems accessing energy: Brazil, Argentina, the United States and Canada. In developing countries, energy needs are such that local demand absorbs nearly all surpluses produced.

The Challenges of Bioenergy Transition in Developing Countries Nonetheless, the cases of Indonesia, which exports biodiesel while a large part of the population does not have access to electricity, or Thailand, which aims to export bioethanol while its electricity production is insufficient during certain periods of the year, show that the economic strategies of States or large producing companies may not serve local interests. Graph 11. Expected Evolution of Biomass Energy Uses

Source: International Energy Agency, 2012.

The Pledges of States and Sectors in the Development of Green Energies Since the signing of the Kyoto protocol in 1997, the Marrakech accords in 2001 and even more since the Paris accords in 2015, the majority of States in the world have pledged to reduce greenhouse emissions. And even if the efforts for reduction announced by developing countries remain weak, the latter have pledged to particularly develop renewable energies. In these mainly intertropical countries, resources and potential for the production of biomass are great. All the more so as in Africa and South America, most of these countries still possess large surfaces of arable land that has not yet been cultivated. Thus, along with solar power and hydroelectricity, bioenergy is part of most development strategies for renewable energy of most States. Many States, including those in less developed countries, have implemented incentive measures for the promotion of bio energies. These measures vary according to the energies produced. In the bioelectricity sector, an essential measure is a guaranteed tariff for the feed-in of each kiloWatt hour (kWh) produced and injected into the network. Another measure may be investment help for the purchase of production equipment: biomass plants, flex-fuel generators, etc. In the bio carbon sector, measures generally concern incorporation engagements that guarantee producers an annual purchase volume, differential taxation in line with the price of hydrocarbons, or investment aid. Some countries such as Brazil have also developed purchase guarantee mechanisms for agricultural productions â&#x20AC;&#x201C; the case of castor â&#x20AC;&#x201C; with the producers in order to feed the chains.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia In the biomass domain, these strategies go hand in hand with rural development and the limitation of hydrocarbon import objectives. Indeed, on the one hand the bio-energy sectors create many jobs in rural areas – on an energy produced equivalent, bio-energy sectors procure ten times as many jobs as fossil carbon sectors; and on the other hand, they increase the possibilities of transforming and conserving agricultural products – through drying, refrigeration, sawing, milling, etc. – and thus participate in the increase of added value in rural zones. Finally, they are able to provide local energy, in various forms, which is affordable in comparison to that produced by fossil energies, thus improving the lives of the local populations. These two “rural development” and “local energy” dimensions are two elements that are greatly appreciated by local populations and contribute to its social acceptability in many countries, thus strengthening domestic demand. Palm oil diesel in Columbia or sugar cane ethanol in Brazil have thus become products the inhabitants are proud of and consume heavily. Concurrently, the big commercial agricultural sectors – sugar cane, palm oil, cacao, soya, etc. – have progressively pledged to certification processes to meet the demands of the sustainability of their clients: the round table on sustainable palm oil norms (RSPO), the round table on sustainable bio-carbons (RSB), BONSUCRO certification, Rainforest alliance, etc. These certifications do not explicitly refer to the development of green energies. Nevertheless, they are all placed in the framework of waste reduction, the efficient use of biomass and the reduction of sources of pollution. The production of bioenergy is consistent with the process of seeking efficiency and optimising the use of residues, of crops or their transformation, in the framework of a circular economy.

Agricultural and Forestry Sectors in Search of Diversification Beyond the certification and energy efficiency objectives, the development of bio energies within the large agricultural sectors responds above all to the strategies for the diversification of openings. With the increase in price of hydrocarbons – witnessed between 2007 and 2010, or foreseen in the medium term – the measures taken by States for the development of green energies and increasing social demand, bio-carbons – solid or liquid – and bio-energies have become profitable productions in many sectors. They have risen from the rank of sub-products to that of co-product, and even main product. This is particularly remarkable in timber sectors where, for many years, the big logging companies and States sought to reduce, and even abolish the production of wood for energy. Today, in central Africa, as is the case in Southeast Asia, the production of wood for energy – pellets, charcoal, logs – either as a complement to carpentry wood, or as a main source of income is a much sought-after option for States and logging companies. As we have already seen, the methods of plantation and exploitation are changing in order to adapt to this potential opening and the sectors are seeking out the most efficient organisations and commercial circuits to supply local or international demand. In the agricultural domain, strategies for the diversification and opening of markets are already being implemented in many countries. Bio carbons and bioelectricity have offered a new source of diversification for agriculture and now limit the risk of becoming dependent on the food market alone, and thus give farmers and their representative organisations greater negotiating powers.

The Challenges of Bioenergy Transition in Developing Countries In so far as the production of bioenergy does not cause any irreversible consequences â&#x20AC;&#x201C; set aside land, soil degradation, too heavy investments â&#x20AC;&#x201C; any major changes in their practices, or any new types of dependence, studies show that most farmers are ready to take advantage of this new opening. In this context the global failure of Jatropha production is enlightening. Indeed, the Jatropha Curcas is a perennial bush that produces a fruit and a seed whose oil may be used in a raw state as a bio carbon or be transformed into biodiesel. Between 2005 and 2010, especially in intertropical zones, in Southeast Asia, in sub-Saharan Africa and in Latin America, projects for Jatropha production emerged. Today, nearly all have stopped. The reasons for this failure are multiple, but among these reasons, particularly in Africa, we can take a look at two: the Jatropha tree is toxic and cannot be used to feed animals or humans, and it is also a perennial plant. It thus introduces an exclusive dependence on the energy market that fluctuates greatly and a form of irreversibility, because of its permanent nature, that necessitates setting aside land in space that is principally devoted to annual crops or the passage of animals. Image 2. Promotion of the Maize Sector in Argentina: The Energy is Clearly Presented as an Opening that is Important as Livestock Feed

Source: AsociaciĂłn Argentina de Productores en Siembra Directa (Aapresid) - www.aapresid.org.ar

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia

The Absence of Alternative Solutions Finally, one last driving element, even though it is not as evident as the others: the absence of alternative energy solutions to biomass that are accessible to the populations. In many developing countries, in spite of all the efforts made by governments and donors to encourage the development of fossil fuels in the domestic sphere, particularly during the 1970s, 80s and 90s, transition to gas or lamp oil did not happen. Today, the United Nations Organisation (UNO) considers that nearly three billion people still depend on biomass, mainly wood and charcoal, as their main source of domestic energy. In the current context, this transition appears to be increasingly compromised and even goes against the grain of modern energy transition. Many African countries are no longer capable of subsidising butane gas for domestic use and this combustible is still mainly ignored by urban and rural users: too expensive, too badly distributed, too uncertain and deemed to be too dangerous, butane gas is still having difficulty entering the kitchens of urban households and is totally absent in the countryside; lamp oil is not any better in the eyes of users; cooking hobs are impossible to use without electricity. Thus biomass is still the only available and affordable resource for a great many households.

1.4.3. The Main Challenges to be Met for Bioenergy Transition There is a wish for the development of bioenergies, and this wish is being fulfilled in many countries. However, these changes still pose numerous problems and many challenges to be met. The main challenge is the mobilisation of large quantities of biomass. Indeed, energy production in not a niche market, itâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s a mass market that meets a growing demand. Producing large quantities of biomass raises the problem of competition for land, production models and their location; the second challenge is certainly that of price and the accessibility of the energy produced, which, in the context of poor countries, must be competitive with other energy solutions: hydrocarbons and other types of renewable energy; and finally, the last challenge is one of production sustainability. Indeed, bioenergy cannot be justified by its carbon neutral character alone, but by its positive energy results and by its acceptable social and environmental impact.

Producing and Mobilising more Biomass In a near future, which will be characterised by a rising demand for energy and energy players with an international stature, bioenergy production will be largely conceived and organised as a mass production that mobilises large surface areas. The successful and often exemplary examples of electrical production from sugar cane in Brazil to palm oil in Columbia head in this direction: a bioelectric plant in Brazil is fed on average by 20 000 ha of sugar cane situated in a radius of 50km; a biodiesel plant in Columbia is fed on average by 30 000 ha of palm trees situated in a radius of 60km. But these large-scale production models incite many fears, among which a fear of competition for land with food crops and of land grabbing by industrial players to the detriment of small local farmers. It is true that large investment projects, particularly in Asia and Africa, have increased in size over the last ten years. Forty per cent of these projects aim to produce solid or liquid bio carbons.

The Challenges of Bioenergy Transition in Developing Countries Nevertheless, on the one hand there is a big gap between declarations of intent and real investment in the field, and on the other hand most projects are dual-usage projects: food and bioenergy â&#x20AC;&#x201C; palm oil, sugar cane, manioc. Indeed, bioenergy is currently a co-product or a sub-product of food productions. Real productions devoted to energy production are rare, even though some countries, following the example of Indonesia, or Thailand, for manioc, aim to increase the share of productions dedicated to energy. Furthermore, these large agro-industrial production models, for many reasons, are not transposable to all countries, because of land access rules, fragmentation of the remaining land, underdeveloped road infrastructures, low availability of labour, etc. In DCs, one of the major challenges for the production of bioenergy is to be able to develop models of biomass production and gathering that are based on the existing family farms, which still represent the overwhelming majority of workers in the countryside. These models are being developed in the palm oil, cacao and sorghum sectors. In this type of model, which associates a network of agricultural producers and an energy industrialist, the question of the organisation of gathering and transporting the biomass is crucial. In order to limit transport costs, these new models also lead us to rethink the size of conversion installations in favour of smaller units for local use. In the wood-energy sector, the production challenge is mainly found on the fringes of big cities. There is the issue of the supplying of southern cities with wood fuels: current high demand and its foreseeable increase are already leading to situations of degradation and depletion of wood resources in peri-urban areas, at distances of up to 200km around big cities. The challenge is to recreate resources through industrial, farm or village plantations and organise the location of these plantations in order to conciliate urban development, agricultural expansion and the supply of fuel wood. Finally, the solution to increasing resources also lies in the mobilisation of crop residues and processing waste: straw, husks, shells, forest residue, clear-cut residue, etc. Many studies and experiments are underway to examine the conditions and methods of collecting residues in almost all the big agricultural and forestry sectors in southern countries. But beyond the practical aspects of collecting in fields or in forests, the main problem is transport from the edge of the field to the energy production plant. Biomass is a heavy and bulky product, and the secondary road infrastructures of developing countries are little developed. In certain countries, truck fleets are also limited. Models that will allow us to physically concentrate and transport residual biomass at a reasonable cost are still on the drawing board.

Producing useful Energy Equitably in the Countryside The second major challenge is related to the production costs of bioenergy and its access conditions for local populations, and its potential role for in the development of the countryside. Indeed, developing countries are characterised by a huge need for energy in order to develop. Energy has become a Goal of sustainable development recognised by the UNâ&#x20AC;&#x201C;SDG nÂ°7. This is particularly the case for access to electricity for all, which is a shared priority for all States, as nearly 600 million people in Africa and 500 million in Asia do not have access to it.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Generally, this need for electricity and energy is essentially concentrated in rural areas. Today, the big donors and many governments, because of a lack of means, have abandoned their big policies for the development of national electricity networks in favour of decentralised solutions to the production and distribution of electricity. Although investment has been reduced, experiments show that the electricity produced on a small scale, largely using diesel generators, is a lot more expensive than that produced in big cities and that the service is rarely constant. Thus, these decentralised solutions are doubly unfair: higher costs and worse service in the countryside than in cities. Furthermore, although electricity is evidently a necessity for the improvement of living conditions, it has only a limited use in agriculture, which remains the dominant economic sector in rural areas. In this context, bioenergy is well placed to play a dual role. On the one hand, it can provide different forms of energy: bio carbons necessary for agricultural mechanisation, heat or cold necessary for the conservation of products, electricity necessary for their processing and for the development of other activities; on the other hand, bioenergy requires the development of supply chains that are likely to provide farmers with complementary incomes, create jobs and stimulate local innovation. But to do this, as in the production models, electrical production and supply models will have to include local stakeholders. The technologies used will particularly have to be able to be appropriated locally, at the risk of being quickly abandoned, and the energy service provided will have to meet local needs and be adapted to the rural context.

Producing Sustainably The sustainability of bioenergy production methods and the renewal of the biomass are major challenges and necessary conditions for the development of such a production. Firstly, the interest of bioenergy lies in its carbon neutrality. However, many productions are not carbon neutral, and some have energy balances that are close to zero – they consume as much energy as they produce. It’s particularly the case of maize ethanol whose production cycle emits high quantities of carbon dioxide and whose energy balance is about one ton of oil equivalent (toe[5]) for each toe produced. On the other hand, sugar cane ethanol or palm olive diesel emit reduced levels of carbon dioxide from 75% to 90% in relation to their fossil equivalents. Generally, although the carbon balance of bioenergy production is not necessarily neutral, as producing biomass may require mechanised methods or the use of carbon consuming chemical fertilisers, this balance is always better than the equivalent obtained using fossil energies. For the production of heat or electricity, the carbon dioxide emissions of a biomass cycle are twenty times lower than equivalent productions (in kWh) using charcoal or diesel. Nevertheless, this balance greatly depends on land use prior to the biomass production. Indeed, if a plantation of fuel wood or oil palm has been planted on land that was initially wooded, energy production, even using virtuous practices, will have difficulty compensating for the loss of carbon initially released by deforestation. Another major concern is maintaining soil fertility. The massive production of biomass for producing energy, the use of residues, more frequent harvests and more frequent visits to the fields, are all [5]

1 toe = 7.33 barrels of oil (conventional equivalence from an energy point of view).

The Challenges of Bioenergy Transition in Developing Countries elements that may result in soil degradation. Generally, the intensification of harvesting biomass from tropical soils, which are already of poor quality, increases the fears of agronomists and foresters who are therefore opposed to any land use that does not enrich the soil. In order to meet the requirements of sustainability, the sectors are trying on the one hand to develop sustainability norms and good practices, and on the other hand are taking advantage of the complementarities of markets between food, energy and materials in order to avoid irreversible consequences. This is particularly true in the case of sugar cane, where the recuperation of leaves or the production of cane that is richer in lignocellulose – fibre canes – are still the subject of much reticence from “traditional” foresters. The long-term consequences of an increased harvesting of residues or the production of high biomass varieties are not yet known and the sustainable technical itineraries that associate energies, food and materials are yet to be conceived.

Conclusions and Outlooks The energy needs of developing countries are considerable. This demand is essentially located in the rural environment where currently more than 80% of energy demands are provided by biomass – essentially wood, used for cooking food and for heating houses. With tensions on the hydrocarbons markets, new technical solutions for the production of low-cost renewable energies, and State pledges for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the satisfaction of the energy needs of these countries should not follow the same technological trajectories as those followed by developed countries. In DCs, the predominance of the agricultural sectors, the a priori availability of arable land, the prospects for increased yields, and forest resources that remain plentiful, mean that agricultural and forest biomass are sources of energy that are apt to meet energy development needs in rural zones. Changes are underway, towards an increasing use of biomass for increasingly diverse forms of energy production: liquid and gas bio carbons, wood pellets, and bioelectricity. But the “bioenergetics” transition towards modern forms of bioenergy, even though it offers real prospects in terms of jobs, energy costs, energy services, will have to rise to many challenges. The production of bioenergy will firstly have to find its place in synergy and complementarity with other form of agricultural and forest production. Models that conciliate energy, livestock, food crops and forests are possible and some of these models are being experimented, but research needs in this subject are still vast; secondly, bioenergy must prove itself in terms of costs, and offer energy services that are adapted to the needs of rural populations; thirdly, the bioenergy sectors, from production to consumption, must include local stakeholders and ensure equity within the chains of production and supply; and finally, the massive export of biomass caused by this production must be compatible with maintaining the fertility of the land and the agro-ecological models that are being developed. Consequently, the components for a successful energy transition in DCs may be enumerated in four points: i) taking advantage of the existing potential – agricultural and natural resources – in the framework of a circular economy based on the existing agricultural and forestry sectors and finding the complementarities between the sectors; ii) responding technically and socially to the specificities of demand, particularly in rural areas; iii) improving energy efficiency and the environmental

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia impact of traditional sectors, while at the same time limiting social impact; iv) placing biomass in the organisation, functioning and projects of territories.

Bibliographical Elements Cotula, L., L. Finnegan and D. Macqueen (2011), “Biomass Energy: Another Driver of Land Acquisitions?” (IIED Briefing Papers No. 17098IIED) (p. 4), IIED Publications Database. Gazull L. and D. Gautier (2014), "Woodfuel in a Global Change Context", Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 4 (2), pp. 156-170. International Energy Agency (2012), "Energy for Cooking in Developing Countries", In : World Energy Outlook 2006, IEA. Paris, OCDE/IEA, pp. 419-446. IEA Bioenergy (2007), Potential Contribution of Bioenergy to the World’s Future Energy Demand. Rotorua, New Zealand, IEA Bioenergy. OCDE, FAO (2014), « Biocarburants », In : Perspectives agricoles de l’OCDE et de la FAO 2014-2023. Paris, Éditions OCDE, pp. 121-140. OCDE/IEA (2012), Key World Energy Statistics 2012, International Energy Agency, Paris, 87 p. REN21 (2015), Renewables 2015 Global Status Report, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Paris, 32p, http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report. Salvatore, M. and B. Damen (2010), Bioenergy and Food Security: the BEFS analysis for Thailand, Environment and Natural Resources, Working Paper No. 42. FAO, Rome, 107 p.

1.5. Synthesis of Plenary Sessions. Complexity and Energy Transition Alexis Drogoul - IRD

Production, Distribution and Consumption of Energy: a Set of Complex Systems The presentations[6] made in the framework of the 2016 JTD gave an extremely rich outline of current thought about all the phenomena grouped together under the term “energy transition”. From the perspective of their respective disciplines, the speakers were able to highlight the political, social, economic and also the ecological and environmental aspects of the multitude of existing and planned initiatives. Out of all these presentations, three main trends became clear: - Firstly, quite a clear separation between, on the one hand, research concerning the description of “energy transitions” already being implemented (Sébastien Velut, Laurent Gazull, Pierre-Yves Le Meur, Javier-Gil Quijano[7]) and, on the other hand, research aiming to prescribe and conceive future energy transitions (because they are inevitable or necessary: Jean-Marc Châtaignier, Michel Eddi, Gaël Giraud); - a certain difficulty, shared by all the speakers, in giving a clear and unanimously accepted definition of the very notion of “energy transition”, particularly in the very different contexts presented in the exposés (are we speaking about the same thing when we describe Europe-wide energy transition policies and practices at a village level?);

[6] The presentations used in this context concern, on the one hand, the presentations of the plenary speakers (Gaël Giraud, Pierre-Yves Le Meur, Laurent Gazull, Sébastien Velut), whose texts are available in this work and, on the other hand, two opening speeches (Michel Eddi, for CIRAD, and Jean-Marc Châtaignier, for the IRD). [7] Javier-Gil Quijano’s presentation is available in video form at the following address: http://www. tamdaoconf.com/2017/03/10/synthese-des-seances-plenieres-5/

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia - shared recognition that these different phenomena can only be understood, studied or conceived by taking into account the multiple interactions that they maintain with the socio-ecosystems where they are deployed (or are supposed to be deployed). This last point particularly caught my attention. Jean-Marc Châtaignier, Michel Eddi, Gaël Giraud, Sébastien Velut, Laurent Gazull and Pierre-Yves Le Meur all, in different registers, insisted on the fact that speaking about transition, desired or observed, uniquely in the field of energy, only captures a small fraction of the reality. From a descriptive point of view, any development in terms of energy practices can only be correctly understood when seen in relation to the parallel developments that accompany it, or with which it appears to be entwined: social, agricultural, dietary, ecological, economic and demographic developments. Conversely, as this was emphasised by Michel Eddi in particular, no prescription for or planning of energy transitions can proceed without reflection about how these other domains can be developed at the same time. Sébastien Velut and PierreYves Le Meur drove this point home by adopting a broader historic perspective, the first by placing current energy transition in a succession of transitions, the second by building on the work of Leslie White concerning the correlation between social complexification and energy use. What’s more, the diversity of the speakers allowed us to remark that the interrelations between energy transition and socio-ecosystemic development are highly dependent on the envisaged points of view and timescales. This is particularly true concerning the questions of “scales”: the spatial or social scale chosen to describe or prescribe a transition in terms of energy distribution or consumption will result in differences that are not only quantitative but also qualitative. Javier-Gil Quijano thus demonstrates that choices in governance and technological choices cannot be the same at the level of the commune as they are at a Europe-wide scale, a point that was also underlined by Sébastien Velut, for whom the choice made at a global scale does not take into account the transitions that are being implemented at local levels. Changing scales means inventing new forms (of production, distribution and consumption) of which some have no relation to an “isomorphic” transformation of local solutions, particularly because new players get involved and different technological constraints are applied. Sébastien Velut and Pierre-Yves Le Meur go further and both insist upon the multi-scalar character of energy transition, that is to say on the necessity of taking into account at the same time different social and spatial scales in order to understand it, because the mechanisms studied appear, owing to the interdependence of distribution networks amongst other things, strongly linked, and because negotiations involve heterogeneous players representing different levels of social organisation (populations, donors, governments, NGOs, etc.). It is interesting to observe, in this regard, that the timescale, which is however essential – even necessary – to the definition of a transition (that involves a priori a before and an after), is that which, finally was the least explicitly addressed, notably in the exposés whose vocation was “prescriptive” (Jean-Marc Châtaignier, Gaël Giraud, Michel Eddi), or simply a reflection on the urgency (or a date limit for transition, in Gaël Giraud’s exposé) prevailed. And yet, as Laurent Gazull underlined, a reflection on energy transition is not complete without this aspect: do the solutions that are considered to be satisfactory on a given timescale remain so indefinitely? Given the interrelations that they have with other developments, we are right to have doubts about this, which means raising questions about the sustainability of energy choices for different outlooks. Conversely, as Javier-Gil Quijano

Synthesis of Plenary Sessions reminded us, the technological choices made in the past in order to implement solutions necessarily set a rhythm – and an inertia – for future transitions: switching the European energy network to a more decentralised system in terms of production and consumption will not be done in one day, whatever the political will to do so. The temporal dynamic, like the social and spatial dynamics, must be addressed in a multi-scalar way. After listening to these presentations, the question raised by, on the one hand, the multiple interactions between (social, spatial and temporal) dynamics and, on the other, the necessity in simultaneously addressing various (analytical or conceptual) scales is that of the stance to adopt in order to account for it in the best possible way, or quite simply to conceive it. The “complex systems” approach (Banos, 2015) brings a possible answer to this question. It indeed allows us to consider a system (an a priori coherent set of interacting components) in its entirety, in terms of structure(s), interactions (possibly non-linear), the existence and emergence of various levels of organisation, and commonplace collective behaviours: self-organisation, bifurcations, feedback loops between components. The complex approach proposes a vision that is completely opposed to a reductionist vision, by attempting to conserve the richness (in terms of components, interactions, etc.) of the system as far as possible in its analysis or its conception.

Contributions of a “Complex” Approach to Reflections about Energy Transition Adopting an approach where the “energy systems” will be analysed as “complex systems” offers a possibility of representing their developments with all their necessary richness, notably by taking into account feedback loops between their components on various temporal and spatial scales. What is the interest in doing this?

Thinking “Complex” Rather than “Simple” First of all, there is maybe the interest in having an immediate capacity to put the “simple” and “obvious” solutions that we see in specialised literature to the test by comparing them with their possible internal contradictions, namely a solution selected by analyses conducted on given scale can no longer be one on a different scale. Let us take for example the case of transition to solar energy: although everyone agrees in recognising its interest, Javier-Gil Quijano showed that it cannot be generalised on a large scale owing to “smoothing” problems and consumption peaks, and the problem of stocking it is part of the problem evoked by Sébastien Velut concerning the sustainability of energy solutions: what will become of the batteries and the collectors for example once their expiry dates have been exceeded, and doesn’t the necessity of renewing these technological systems carry the risk of creating problems that are even more serious than those solar energy seems to set out to resolve ?

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Thinking in Terms of “Breaking with the Past” rather than “Permanence” One lesson that adopting a “complex” stance can teach us is that it is necessary to permanently rethink the a prioris and the results that are taken for granted, because the first characteristic of a complex system is the ability to change state (or “attractor”), sometimes abruptly without necessarily giving any warning signs. For example, what guarantee do we have that the premise stated by Gaël Giraud, according to which there is an intangible linear relation between the gross domestic product and energy consumption – demonstrated over the last 50 years – will still be true tomorrow, all the more so as we are in a world that is supposedly in transition? There is none a priori, because, in a complex system, the past is not necessarily the most reliable predictor of the future (Edmonds and Gershenson, 2015).

Thinking in Terms of “Interdependence” rather than “Causality” Another contribution of this approach is to consider that the components, or the sub-systems, of a complex system maintain constant interactions between each other, which are referred to as feedback loops, through which they mutually influence each other and thanks to which emerging properties may develop at higher levels. Any individual action, any interaction between components may result in the birth of qualitatively new forms or dynamics and the complex approach has at its disposal tools that allow it to represent and conceive this emergence. It thus provides a possible analytical framework for the various exposés which all, in their respective fields and ways, highlighted the difficulty in conciliating the singularity of an energy transition policy with the heterogeneity of the participants that have to implement it. This highly dynamic systemic vision allows us to understand certain correlations as interdependencies and go beyond causal approaches, which are difficult to mobilise to account for phenomena as rich as the “circular economy” mechanisms described by Laurent Gazull for example. It also allows us, and this is often crucial for understanding the possible developments of a system or tracking its dynamic history, to construct indicators at the confluence of one or several of the system’s components, such as those evoked by Pierre-Yves Le Meur (social inequalities or cultural differences to account for the impact of innovations) or Laurent Gazull (deforestation, impact studies to assess the consequence of the use of biomass). The transition to “smart meters” that took place in France, presented by Javier-Gil Quijano, is another example of this: from a simple tool for measuring energy consumed, this system becomes a sensor operating at the junction of the social and energy spheres that indicates individual behaviours and preferences vis-à-vis electricity consumption.

Thinking in terms of Interacting Systems Even though the complex approach encourages us to see energy systems as composite “wholes”, it also encourages us to understand them as the possible components of other larger systems, within which multiple feedback loops that include them are likely to exist. Thus, Pierre-Yves Le Meur, Sébastien Velut or Gaël Giraud clearly demonstrated the countless interactions that exist between, on the one hand, the “energy system” and the construction of political power and, on the other hand, the method of government and the production and distribution of this energy.

Synthesis of Plenary Sessions

Players and Roles of Players The consequence of most of these points – and particularly the last – is that the principal contribution of a complex approach, from a methodological point of view, lies in the possibility of taking into account the full heterogeneity of the players, on the multiple scales at which they operate, with their strategies and interaction explicitly described. In his presentation, Sébastien Velut indeed clearly shows that the difficulty in correctly managing certain forms of energy transition lies in the contradiction between the local character of the vast majority of the players concerned and the global character of the envisaged choices or strategies. This contradiction creates difficulties for any approach that does not take the two scales into account simultaneously, notably when the transition in terms of energy necessitates an equivalent development from the economic, political and social point of view. Pierre-Yves Le Meur thus shows the close interdependence between lifestyles and energy consumption; Laurent Gazull insists for his part on the social acceptability of the underlying objects or technologies, in his case the transformations of biomass into biofuel, as a precondition for a wider transition; and Gaël Giraud broadens the perspective by showing how the price of energy may depend on players that are completely outside the sector (insurance companies, banks, derivative markets, etc.). In spite of the difference between their fields of study, they all say the same thing: no energy transition policy can be implemented without extending social accompaniment to all the players affected by these potential feedback loops.

Constraints of a “Complex Systems” Approach The preceding exposés seem to take into account the dimension of complexity necessary for understanding the case studies presented, but experience shows that there is a great distance between discourse and methodology as soon as this complexity goes beyond a certain threshold where there are too many feedback loops. The characteristics of a complex system from a methodological point of view indeed appear to be often confusing and not well adapted to “classical” research approaches. They may indeed prove to be: - counter-intuitive: the results may go against all expectations based upon “common sense”; - confusing: the processes at work are individually complicated and interact in too tangled a way to be followed in detail; - non linear: apparently insignificant changes in the initial conditions may bring about a significant difference in the results; - qualitatively different: the results in the development of the system may result in the emergence of a different type of process than those initially at work; - specific: the particular principles and schematics that apply to one system may not function for an apparently similar system; - causally open: the arrival of new factors may radically change the “rules of the game”.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia These characteristics require new tools in order to be correctly taken into account. Beyond conceptual tools surrounding the approaches made popular by Edgar Morin (2007) or Jean-Louis Le Moigne (1999), a “complex approach” must rely on operational tools that allow it to capture systems in all their richness and generalise the results beyond the specific case studies being examined. These tools include models (as indicated by Gaël Giraud who sees them as the only rational way of succeeding in conceiving, understanding, proposing and assessing energy transition solutions) and particularly computer models, such as agent-based models (Drogoul et al. 2002), which started being developed at the end of the 1980s in order to partly address this issue. Using computer models as a basis of reflection is not obvious in many research domains, particularly in social sciences. But it appears increasingly clear that this development is inevitable, notably because: - the domains nearest to engineering sciences are already using models to assess the feasibility of their technological proposals and the only way of introducing aspects linked to social players is to participate, at as early a stage as possible, in their conception. This crosscutting co-construction is currently at the heart of numerous approaches in the study of socio-ecosystems via the hybridisation of models (Drogoul et al. 2016) and allows us to take into account both the constraints and wishes of each of the stakeholders in a methodologically sound way; - beyond the very effort of modelling, the modern methods of the computer simulation of these models allow researchers to explore the possible scenarios of transition development while taking into account the numerous variables and the parallel development of other systems; - finally, it is important to emphasise, as did Gaël Giraud, that the developments of large-scale “forcing” (such as those linked to demographic, economic or climatic factors) are themselves now the result of models that propose various scenarios. Any serious study of energy transition must base itself on these. For many scientists, the difficulty of this new exercise is essentially due to the gap between the expectations (sometimes naive) that they may have vis-à-vis modelling and the reality of what the modern approaches to the modelling of complex systems are. Indeed, tools of modelling and simulation such as the GAMA platform offer a lot greater freedom than classical tools (essentially mathematics, which is still used in many domains such as economics), by allowing us, for example, to not have to oversimplify available qualitative data (players’ behaviours), but this comes at the cost however of greater difficulty interpreting, by the modellers, the “results” obtained (Grignard et al. 2013). There are several reasons for this, the main one being that the new types of models can no longer be used for predictive purposes: they often allow us to explore different scenarios, but without our being able to attribute occurrence probability to them. Training about the conception and interpretation of these new types of models is thus necessary before we can envisage them becoming the norm.

Synthesis of Plenary Sessions

Conclusion What the preceding interventions reveal (and share) is the fact that we are entering head-on into a world of uncertainties, as specified by Pierre-Yves Le Meur, concerning both the development of energy systems (which technologies? which choices?) and the development of interactions between the players in these systems (populations, operators, States). Although, for citizens, these uncertainties mean having to adapt and accept to live in a less certain and less predictable environment, they are already posing considerable challenges to scientists, as much in terms of analysis as in the conception of new systems. The panorama provided by the speakers is for this reason fascinating and fully rose to the challenge of speaking about, in a rich and educational way, “energy transition” in a school dedicated to social sciences, which was not necessarily an easy task on paper. Because the social sciences have not yet invested massively in this field of research, they have been quite logically greatly called upon, in many respects, by the presentations. All of them, including the most technical (that of Javier-Gil Quijano) implicitly raised, in the final analysis, the same question: what society(ies) is/are the future transition(s) shaping and what can we do so that they are as harmonious as possible? Should the sometimes-precarious balances built on an existing energy be brutally disrupted? Should the social players all be involved in the conception and development of the energy systems on which their societies are based? Should we allow energy transition to be the result of a “physical” or “environmental” constraint (climate change, depletion of fossil resources, pollution), or let it be an opportunity to reduce social divisions and allow the poorest populations access to a cheap and clean energy? The message delivered to researchers is at any rate clear: it is necessary for social sciences to invest in this field of research and take their rightful place, but in order to do this they have to equip themselves with new tools, firstly modelling tools, in order to be able to fully construct new alliances between the sciences of man, the environment and the engineer.

Select Bibliography Banos, A. (2015), « La ville, un système complexe ? Les nouveaux enjeux de la modélisation urbaine », in Lagrée St. (ed.), « Regards sur le développement urbain durable. Approches méthodologiques, transversales et opérationnelles », Conférences et Séminaires, n° 13, AFD-EFÉO. Drogoul, A., Q. Huynh Nghi et C. Truong Quang (2016), Coupling Environmental, Social and Economic Models to Understand Land-Use Change Dynamics in the Mekong Delta, Frontiers in Environmental Science, vol. 4, 2016, http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenvs.2016.00019 Drogoul, A., D. Vanbergue et T. Meurisse (2002), “Multi-Agent Based Simulation: Where are the Agents?” In: Simão Sichman J., F. Bousquet et P. Davidsson (eds.) Multi-Agent-Based Simulation II. MABS 2002. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 2581, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. Edmonds, B. et C. Gershenson (2015), “Modelling Complexity for Policy: opportunities and challenges”. In: Geyer, R. & Cairney, P. (dir) Handbook on Complexity and Public Policy. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar, pp. 205-220.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Grignard, A., P. Taillandier, B. Gaudou, D. An Vo, N. Huynh et A. Drogoul (2013), “GAMA 1.6: Advancing the Art of Complex Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation”, In the 16th International Conference on Principles and Practices in Multi-Agent Systems (PRIMA), 8291, pp. 242–258. Le Moigne, J-L. (1999), La modélisation des systèmes complexes, Dunod. Morin, E (2007), “Restricted Complexity, General Complexity”, in: Worldviews, Science and Us: Philosophy and Complexity. Gershenson et al. World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., pp. 5-29.

Part 2.â&#x20AC;&#x201A; Workshops

2.1. Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition Johanna Lees – Centre Norbert Elias, Sébastien Velut – Sorbonne University Paris Cité

Day 1, Monday 11th July Introduction of trainers and trainees (see list of trainees included at the end of this chapter and biographies)

2.1.1. What is Energy Transition? [Sébastien Velut] For a long time, humanity only used energies from biomass, notably wood. Then these types of energy declined in relative importance and were replaced at the end of the 18th century by coal – invention of the steam engine. At the end of the First World War, Winston Churchill made a major decision: to switch from coal to oil for the needs of the navy, as oil was then believed to be the most reliable source of energy. The history of energy transitions is made up of “small” decisions that constitute turning points at which a new heading is taken; these micro-decisions resulted in unforeseen changes, the principal change being energy consumption on a global scale. What are we talking about when we refer to energy transition ? Let us take as an example the case of France: 75% of the energy consumed today is produced by nuclear plants. Why did they make this choice? - Energy independence. In the countries that it controls, France has uranium sources. There are indeed sources in France, but above all in Niger, hence the possibility of importing the fuel.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia - Mastery of technologies. This gives French industry a certain advantage: mastery of nuclear technologies means mastery of advanced technologies. This may be at a military, strategic scale: France is a nuclear power and the development of this energy implies research in terms of weaponry. The consequences are also economic: low energy costs for French industry. - In this way, it’s a strategic choice. This has consequences on the development of the territory with the implantation of nuclear power stations on appropriate sites – effects in terms of electricity networks. This energy transition was desired for reasons of national sovereignty. At a time when climate change and the greenhouse effect are issues, France can boast about producing low-carbon energies – but we omit to mention other environmental aspects that are not spoken about in the French political arena. Addressing the issue of energy transition rekindles other well-known issues such as the cost of energy, supplying energy at the best possible price to the final user as well as, for example, the safeguarding of supplies. When France opts for nuclear energy, it is also a matter of national security in relation to imported energy. Henceforth, we are introducing a new constraint: greenhouse gas emissions. Certain pro-active policies will seek to modify these parameters. Which means that we are going to act at the level of public policies in order to modify the energy mix, and influence the relative prices of energies. We are going to act on technological variables (research) but we are also going to seek to modify the behaviour of players, that is to say the governance of the energy sector.

Đặng Viết Đạt Nuclear energy has the largest share in the French energy mix. France benefits from considerable experience in this domain, both in terms of nuclear safety and security. Does France have the political and technological means to address the possible risks? I’m thinking about Chernobyl and Fukushima.

[Sébastien Velut] This is a fundamental issue. These were two major environmental disasters. It’s impossible to say that there will never be an incident. But France wishes to reduce the share of nuclear energy in its energy mix. This official goal remains, however, difficult to attain, because we don’t have a less costly energy source and, above all, because the stakeholders have high stakes in the development of the sector and do not wish to abandon it. In France there are some large companies whose role is to develop nuclear energy.

[Johanna Lees] In my view, before we even start thinking about energy issues, we certainly need to re-evaluate this energy cliché. Who benefits from it? What is the point of it? Who is championing this concept, in politics for example? Some authors believe it to be a “soft” concept that hides a more complex social and political situation. Energy transition must be considered as a research subject.

Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition [Sébastien Velut] We have worked on energy production issues in French regions. Energy transition initiatives have been conducted by local companies, notably companies involved in the fabrication of electrical material. Why? If we succeed in changing the norms regarding electrical sockets, switches, bulbs and household appliances, a considerable market will open up. Consumers will thus be obliged to equip themselves with new, more economical material. One of the motivations of these enterprises consists in creating new markets. In the electrical sector in particular, energy transition means “intelligently” managing consumption, offering the consumer enhanced monitoring systems – water or electricity consumption for example. These are forms of social control linked to energy transition. We find ourselves confronted with two concepts: cataloguing our weekly energy consumption or indeed introducing more severe forms of social control under the cloak of consumer education (Criqui and La Branche, 2016). Let us take a look at public policies through the case of an emerging economic power: Brazil. Brazil is one of the largest countries in the world, which raises challenges in relation to energy deployment and access to it by populations – in its northern part, the Amazon represents five million km2, it is sparsely populated and is faced with tangible ecological issues (the sustainable conservation of the forest). Graph 12. Total Supply in Primary Energy (Brazil)*

* Exclusive of electricity trade Source: www.iea.org/statistics/

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia We can remark a high and steady growth in the consumption of primary energy. Towards 1980 we were consuming 100 million tons of oil equivalent; twenty years later, we reached 200 million tons, then, around 2015, 300 million tons. How can we account for this increase? The energy consumptions that have risen over the last years are: oil, hydro-electricity (more slowly), natural gas (since the end of the 1990s), fuel from biomass (large role). On the other hand, the share of nuclear power is slim and coal has a marginal presence. I will attempt to show that these economic sectors are linked to different economic interests, that their development has consequences in terms of the development of territories and the interconnections between neighbouring countries. We will also address access to energy issues and how the more remote regions of Brazil are reached. Nearly all hydro-electrical energy production is converted into electricity, it has the merit of being renewable and it does not emit greenhouse gases. Energy efficiency is stable – volume of oil required to produce USD 1000 of gross domestic product (GDP). Brazil’s economic growth has not been accompanied by greater energy efficiency. In reality, Brazil lives with the idea that its resources are plentiful and that it will always find complementary resources to meet its energy consumption needs. What are the characteristics of the programmes linked to biofuel in Brazil? Ethanol is produced from sugar cane, a crop that has a considerable energy yield. At the beginning of the 1970s, the country launched a programme – without any great success – that allowed it to gain experience and re-launch ethanol production at the end of the 1990s. The particularity of the Brazilian ethanol-sugar cane programme is its total use of the cane: fermentation for the production of ethanol and the remainder of the fibres for electricity. One of the innovations consists in equipping the refineries with more efficient boilers to transform the bagasse into electricity. There is sufficient electricity production to justify connections to the network. Another innovation is the introduction of Flex vehicles that can function with different types of fuel. Today, at the pump, consumers have a choice between ethanol and petrol.

Yolande Leondaris Razafindrakoto Which is the cheapest fuel? Which is the most difficult to produce?

[Sébastien Velut] Ethanol is the cheapest, but provides slightly less autonomy than petrol. The production process of ethanol is less complicated. An oil refinery creates a wide range of products. The development of sugar cane for the fabrication of sugar or energy is carried out by small and medium-sized local businesses; this has an effect on the economic development of regions notably because Brazil sells on its technologies – bio-refineries.

Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition Đinh Lê Na Are they public or private companies? Does the size of these companies have an effect on the market? Are there any interest groups involved?

[Sébastien Velut] They are mostly private companies – some produce material: mechanical engineering. These companies have groups, associations that form as many pressure groups to defend the sugar cane sector at a national level. The production of sugar cane is efficient in energy terms. The yield between energy used and energy recuperated may represent a ratio of 1 to 8. The sugar cane regrows and absorbs more carbon dioxide. From this point of view, the result is positive. However, the spread of sugar cane fields means a change in land use, notably deforestation that releases greenhouse gases. Photo 2. Development of Sugar Cane in the Brazilian Midwest (City of Rio Verde, Goias)

Source: Valarié (2007).

Unlike sugar cane, oil is managed by Petrobas, a State company that is responsible for research, extraction, refining, transport and sales. The growth of the sector is linked to the discovery of new oil fields off the Brazilian coast, as well as to the development of new deep-water exploration and production technologies. The oil company has become a global player over the last fifteen years. Energy transition is thus characterised by an extension of the space used for oil extraction that is a strategic sector for the State.

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Brazil has been connected to Bolivia by a 4000 km gas line that links the regions of production (Bolivia) to those of consumption around São Paulo. The Itaipu dam, in the south of Brazil, on the border with Paraguay, was the largest of its type in the world before the construction of the Three Gorges Dam in China. There has evidently been a considerable impact on the river. Photo 3. Itaipu Dam

Source: http://onenparleici.over-blog.com/article-le-lieu-du-vendredi-le-barrage-d-itaipu-111678148.html

Brazil is a relatively flat country, which results in the flooding of considerable areas – case of the Brazilian Amazon. The hydro-electrical system encompasses a wider area than the European system, but serves fewer populations. It is less dense, less connected, even though it covers considerable distances. The system is expanding and numerous dams are under construction in order to connect them to the national network – electrical power lines are going to be built in the tropical forest opening the way to colonisation and axes of deforestation. I worked in the city of Manaus, a city that is now connected to the national network – being connected results in the improvement of energy security. Energy sources have become more diverse and supply is more secure. However, the assessment of these developments must be qualified. The Brazilian State is implementing aid programmes for the poorest populations out of concern for social equity – “Electricity for all” programme. This entails making access to energy easier for several types of populations, mainly for isolated rural populations, but also for the poorest city dwellers. New electric power lines are being built: 800 000 km of line has been constructed in the last

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition fifteen years. Special tariffs are planned for these populations. The programme has resulted in the improvement of living conditions and the establishing of new companies. The problem is that the social tariff will only apply to low consumption. When households are connected, the occupants have no idea of their consumption and are not able to pay. This type of programme has had to be complemented by education programmes aimed at teaching people to correctly use and manage their electricity consumption. Economic growth remains the priority for Brazil. Energy access for the poorer populations remains a secondary concern. What is energy transition bringing? More renewable energy, more hydroelectricity and more sugar cane, but the social and environmental impact is considerable. This energy transition favours connections with neighbouring countries (gas), which implies a great dynamic in territorial development: national integration and the reaffirmation of the role of the State (integrating the territory and its populations). These transformations are also the source of an increase in greenhouse gas emissions that result from both a high consumption of oil and the change in land use in forest and agricultural zones. Energy transition is therefore driven by public policies (State); it alters the geography of energy at the State level (new regions of production, new networks). Issues linked to climate change, if not included by States, miraculously do not appear! Likewise, we cannot conceive this energy transition without thinking about providing energy access to the populations of different territories. Solving the problems of a few industries in the large cities is one thing, guaranteeing energy access for all is another. The depletion of fossil resources has not yet been addressed. This is not a “driving” issue. We have to reflect in terms of price, geopolitics and greenhouse gas emissions (to a lesser extent). Brazil has not launched a policy for a change in its energy mix only because it thought that, in the long term, there would be no more oil. Technical changes appear beforehand; the Stone Age did not finish because there was no more stone; the oil age will not finish because there is no more oil!

Đặng Viết Đạt What were the real objectives of the Brazilian government in energy transition?

[Sébastien Velut] We often think that only economic growth can save populations from poverty, this assumption is not necessarily exact. It is in any case the official discourse. Next, Brazil is a big country and we consider that there are no major environmental impacts. We can observe a difference in perception between stock and flows, between what already exists and what is being undertaken. At the beginning of the 2000s, Brazil was governed by the Workers’ party, which was more concerned about the implementation of social measures and redistribution. Corrective measures were also applied for strong economic growth. We can also observe that environmental conservation programmes enter into conflict with this policy of economic expansion – construction of power lines and dams in protected areas. We see here the contradictions of public policy.

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2.1.2. Usage Conflicts, the Case of the Mekong The afternoon begins with an exposé about different forms of conflict on the Mekong: typology of players, challenges, and strategies. The aim is to have the trainees use the methods and tools from the social sciences presented and explain the chosen method: what type of players were interviewed? What types of observation were conducted? Which elements of the sociological, historical and political context were to be taken into account? The presentation is based upon the reading texts and the online resources that were transmitted prior to the training program (see list presented at the end of chapter).

[Johanna Lees] We can often observe different logics – economic, symbolical and social – in order to understand the challenges of usage conflicts. We have to observe the arena and determine the players. The strategic groups[8] may vary in time and in space, according to gender, caste, social class, etc. An individual may belong to several groups – a member of a State administration may also be a member of a non-government organisation (NGO) for example. The principal tool of anthropology is observation. It must be used as much as possible in order to know and understand players’ practices. Anthropology allows people to speak (interviews) and attempts to re-launch debate about remarks that appear interesting, about what is surprising. Thus, the person surveyed may direct the anthropologist towards new questions; new facts that arouse his interest and may bring into question his research issue. This method, the so-called inductive method, is the opposite of the deductive one where the researcher conducts his interviews in such a way as to refute or confirm his avenues of research. Let us return to the term “development” in order to analyse it and strip it of any positive or negative connotation. According to Olivier de Sardan, development is “(...) all the social processes generated by pro-active actions aiming to transform a social place, undertaken by institutions or players that are foreign to this environment, based on an attempt to transplant resources, techniques or knowledge” (Olivier de Sardan, 1995). When we work on development as thus defined, we may ask why development projects rarely meet their objectives. For the researcher, this involves observing, firstly, the excesses or discrepancies between the objectives and the reality in the field. It is necessary to detach ourselves from any ideological explanation in the face of these potential discrepancies – “the inhabitants resist the development policy”, “they are uneducated”. The word “education” is recurrent in this type of discourse. For the Mekong, the policies have effects on the practices of populations owing to the hydrological developments. In order to understand usage conflicts, we have to deconstruct resistance to change by analysing the religious and/or social, symbolic, political and economic rationalities.

[8] See also the development proposed in part 2.3. of this publication.

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition Conflict is not an anomaly in the life of societies. It is a time for a possible re-balancing and structuring of rational opposing forces; it is the main vector for adjusting the rules and institutions of any society. Usage conflicts represent a form of expression of the forces involved, of social relationships, of institutional dynamics and socio-technical changes. They are good indicators of the mutations and modes of governance of territories. They also show innovations and reveal the oppositions that they generate. The conflicts allow us to observe the way in which players mobilise themselves and seek to influence public decisions, to see how the players bring into question certain forms of appropriation of space. There are several types of usage conflict: - Oppositions between users regarding a space; - Situations of conflict regarding location – for example, against an industrial installation or infrastructures; - Development conflicts – when the usage is driven by a public project; - Environmental conflicts – when the issue of natural habitats and disturbances is at the heart of the debate; - Neighbourhood conflicts – when the inhabitants rally against a phenomenon that affects a neighbouring space. The case of the Mekong illustrates several of these conflicts. There are clashes between the different users of a space. This is a conflict of location – determining the place where a dam is to be built –, a development conflict – the project is driven by a public project -, an environmental conflict, a neighbourhood conflict – the inhabitants and NGOs may rally against the installation of a dam. The principal situations catalogued in terms of usage conflict concern the use of natural resources – particularly water –, protected area practices, urbanisation issues, occupancy dynamics in rural or suburban areas and the spilling over of industrial activities. However, some analysts of usage conflicts express reservations. - The approach is static; it is disconnected from the transformations and dynamics of territories, from their history. - The analysis focuses too much on the economic aspects and not enough on political, symbolical, spatial and social dimensions. These conflicts unfold in political arenas: places of confrontation between players and public policies – the term originates from the corrida (bullfighting), a place of confrontation and violence. The metaphor of the arena in political life conveys the idea of a confrontation that makes sense in popular and scientific language. The arena signifies a coded space of confrontations (norms) and political clashes. Why highlight the norms that may be observed during a usage conflict? Pierre Olivier de Sardan worked for a long time in Niger where he analysed State governance. He identified the principal models – clientelism for example – and an ideology regarding the norms implemented by the players of this State. There are a multitude of norms: official, social, routine, but also practical norms. What exactly are they? Real behaviours are not simply deviances from official norms, they also stem

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia from other, latent, norms that we call practical norms. The difficulty is that they are not necessarily intentional and the players themselves may not be aware of them. Practical norms have the advantage of steering clear of our values and interests. In Africa, there is a gap between official norms and real practices. For example, the official norm in administration consists in working from 8am to 5pm. However, some civil servants leave work at 2pm. In reality, these workers work elsewhere in order to complement a salary that is too low. If we fail to take these practices closely into consideration, we risk thinking that they are corrupt (ideological theory concerning their practices), lazy or that they are not doing their jobs. These theories pay little attention to the emic significance – what may be observed from the players’ point of view. We have to conduct inquiries and update these practical norms. Another example of “ideological” theories: society, in West Africa, is based upon traditional values. However, in hospitals we can observe that the doctors and nurses no longer take the elderly into account contrary to the traditional conception. The premise about culture and cultural norms is brought into question. It’s the role of the researcher to analyse what makes up this practical norm. In this case, research has shown that medical staff worked quicker so as to clock off earlier and complement their salaries. Particular attention must be paid to culturalist, cultural and ideological postures. This conveys that certain traditional values are implemented at certain times and in certain circumstances. Jean-Pierre Olivier de Sardan demonstrates that there is an overlapping of religious, practical, professional and social norms. This overlap allows us to capture these practices. Speaking about political culture, professional culture and specific cultural logic imposes a triple condition: (i) to not mix culture and tradition; (ii) to avoid any presuppositions of cultural homogeneity – culture is not insular and unchanging, on the contrary, it is composed of dynamic elements that transform themselves; (iii) to have implemented through the field inquiry the confirmed existence of behaviours or representations shared by the players and given contexts. We can observe a kind of dichotomy between official and traditional norms. Olivier de Sardan reminds us that the culturalist explanation is “lazy”: instead of going and discovering what the informal norms are, it reuses received ideas built on traditional social norms. In order to understand a mode of governance, we should avoid conceiving in one word the culturalist, traditionalist posture, which is a scientific ideology and presumes nothing of the players’ attitude.

Yolande Leondaris Razafindrakoto In Madagascar, technical norms have been implemented for reforestation, 1500 trees per hectare. However, it is general practice to fix the number at 1100 per hectare so that zebus may pass through the plantation.

[Johanna Lees] This technical norm is certainly imposed from the outside. We have to search to understand why there is resistance or conflict: there is an eminent meaning that comes from the very practice that stems from a norm, and this norm consists in allowing zebus to pass through the forest.

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition In brief, we have to understand the significance of practices and informal norms in order to get a better grasp of players’ behaviours. During development projects, this provides keys for understanding forms of resistance to social change and innovation. Let us take the example of driving in Việt Nam. Olivier De Sardan underlines the fact that norms are not respected, but the population obeys shares tacit rules. These practical norms will not be expressed as such by social players. They are most often automatic and routine in a register that is more latent than explicit. It is important for the researcher to single them out, identify them and analyse them through the practices and discourse of the players. Why have we made this detour to talk about practical norms? The diversity of practical norms conflicts with the unifying interpretation of social norms that crosscuts all the social sciences: all the members of a same society will necessarily share common norms that are imposed upon them from the outside. Societies would then be communities of sense, of shared meanings. Such affirmations are widely contradicted by the facts and by work in the field. Many public actions do not require communities of meaning and accommodate themselves to compromises between variations in norms. Practical or official social norms cannot be reduced to a unique type of meaning. They only make sense in the context and type of activity in which they are applied. The concept of practical norms is not an analytical concept but an exploratory one that allows us discover a variety of social regulatory modes without organising them by type a priori. The concept is of variable geometry. Some practical norms are closer to the strategies of certain players; others are closer to crosscutting social logics, to local or professional cultures. We may think that some practical norms conflict more with certain development projects. We may also consider that some practices may have positive impacts, and that the transformation of certain practical norms is an avenue to be explored. The introduction of new practices by local players, rather than the importation of official norms by foreign institutions, should be encouraged and supported. In any case, we have to seek to analyse and describe them.

[Sébastien Velut] When we speak about energy transition, we are also talking about modifying consumer and user practices. We come up against this type of problem, as it is often the case that the user refuses to let us modify these practices and invent our own norms – either in relation to the defined meaning, or in relation to his own understanding of the technological challenges. All these programmes, generally concerning environmental issues, involve educational measures. Education serves as a way to modify behaviours. Education is also a way of imposing outside norms.

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Day 2, Tuesday 12th July In the morning, the trainees and trainers of the “use of computer models as an aid in energy planning and the accompaniment of transition policies” workshop join the “local approaches” workshop so that Sébastien Velut can give some precisions about certain definitions of energy units.

2.1.3. Energy Transition in Cities We speak about cities in energy transition and energy transition in cities. Cities are privileged places for energy transition notably because they concentrate populations and energy consumption. In 2010, the world rate of urbanisation rose to more than 50%. This trend is going to increase. The United Nations urbanisation programme predicts that this figure will be 60% by 2040-2060. It is forecast that there will be six billion city dwellers in 2050. It is worth noting how many of these cities are in southern countries, whereas at the beginning of the last century they were located in Europe and the United States. Map 5. Development of the Urban World over the Next Twenty Years

Source: UN-Habitat (2005).

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition We can still observe a few large urban centres in Europe (Paris, Moscow), in the United States (New York, Los Angeles), but the weight of southern countries is remarkable, particularly in Asia. The issue of urbanisation and energy transition in these cities is a strategic issue at a global level, and an essential one in southern countries. Metropolises are energy sinks, places where energy disappears because of transport (traffic jams), and housing (lighting and air-conditioning, etc.). They are also places of economic activity: energy is used in industries, services and the commercial sector. We also have to think about the energy used in the construction of cities: transport of construction material, buildings and infrastructure. Changing this “built environment” is significant and requires a lot of energy. In the case of Paris, before the industrial revolution, it involved bringing in food – energy for the population –, the main energy was wood. The Seine was used for the transport of these goods so that the population could keep warm and cook. Imagine London and its smog. This allows us to visualise energy consumption in cities. A map of the electricity network in Argentina underlines convergence towards the capital: the resources of a whole territory are placed at the disposal of Buenos Aires that groups together one third of the country’s total population. Meeting energy demands is a major political challenge: we expect the State to provide us with light – “Panem et circenses”, that is to say “Bread and circuses”. Cities are also the solution to the energy issue. Specific solutions exist to increase energy efficiency. - The efficiency of mass public transport, the possibility of circulating by bicycle or on foot (case of the “trottibus”) - Waste usage – notably methane recuperation systems, the quality of construction norms – slow dynamic but whose benefits are immediate for occupants. - Improvement in efficiency of existing accommodation – but return on investment rates is long. I am dismayed to see how southern countries construct without taking climatic conditions into account; buildings in Asian cities are designed in the same way as those in Paris or New York. It is however possible to build efficiently using natural ventilation or cooling wells for example. Let us also remark that the temperatures in cities are higher than in neighbouring rural areas owing to the heat reflection from buildings, air conditioning apparatus and the use of private cars for example: this increase is around 3°C in relation to outside the city. There are several elements that appear to me to be key in this policy of urban energy transition. They concern elements dealing with: energy services, regulation of the property sector, social inclusion, public decision-making spaces and the issue of economic growth. Technical ideas exist but their implementation may come up against the reality of markets, companies and inhabitants, and be blocked. How is the energy service (principally electricity) managed in cities? Are the companies private or public? Who has authority over the said company? In many countries, the electricity companies were at first public companies and were often municipal, and then they have been mostly privatised over the last twenty years. The private company must meet strict specifications. Another point: how do we produce the energy distributed? Generally, the distributing companies in the cities do not produce the electricity but buy it – while preserving as much as possible the

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia profit margins that are at stake. Currently, the cheapest energy is supplied by coal plants. Using a model, we may reflect on the best way to proceed, how to optimise, how to consume less, how to be more efficient. In the real world, we find ourselves faced with companies, unions and inhabitants. Tensions exist, political and social problems. Rationalities that are not necessarily compatible clash. Energy and electricity companies often play multiple roles. Optimisation is not only technical but also involves social dialogue. If we wish to work on urban energy transitions, we have to understand the rationalities, practices, norms and different groups of players involved in the transformations of energy usage. Poor – illegal – neighbourhoods in developing cities are not supplied with energy. The neighbourhoods are not connected to the technical network in a formal and legal way. There are a multitude of connections to the electrical networks and these pose many safety issues – no norm is respected – and the theft of electrical current is commonplace. Authorities often seek to legalise or rationalise these energy supplies in order to guarantee a safer and more measurable supply. However, the dwelling is illegal, it does not officially exist – absence of title deeds. For the electricity company, it is impossible to connect a dwelling, if the owner is not identified. It is also a way of controlling populations.

2.1.4. Energy Insecurity and Poverty Three trainees give exposés on the notions of energy insecurity and poverty applied to the cases of Laos and Madagascar using online resources that were communicated by the trainers prior to the training.

[Johanna Lees] Things are defined in function of the local context. What seems to represent a problem in Europe might not do so in another social, geographical or economic context. Personally, when I began my research work into the notion of energy insecurity, I did not know exactly on what I was going to work! The issue of comfort and energy access may, or may not be a problem. At an international level, the objective is access to energy for all. The implementation of international standards at a local level may produce some sticking points – difficulties in paying one’s energy bill for example. The exposé clearly underlines the distinction between insecurity – absence of electrical and energy installations – and energy poverty – presence of installations but an absence of resources to access this energy. In order to throw light upon this axis of thinking, I would like to go through some methodological points of my doctoral research (Lees, 2014) with you. In 2008-2009, a call for tender was launched by the Agence nationale du développement et de l’énergie (ADEN) concerning energy insecurity – institutions were beginning to take an interest in this issue, which represents a first element of inquiry. The work consisted in conducting interviews with families in order to define energy insecurity: what is the meaning of “energy insecurity”? Why

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition are public institutions asking this question today? How do people in situations of energy insecurity live? Another part of the work was to understand the situations by bibliographical research into the subject, by attending institutional debates, and participating in European programmes. Some exploratory inquires were conducted at the same time with different players that allowed us to identify the target neighbourhoods in Marseilles: the fire service, SOS médecins, social workers, community activists, etc. The first inquiries immediately led me to reformulate the term of energy insecurity so as to be understood by the population, we instead spoke about access to heating and energy. Why, at a given moment, did we begin to raise the question of energy insecurity in France? The issue of difficulties in energy access appeared in the 1990s (Besson bill). But Brussels decided shortly after to privatise energy services. This privatisation triggered a series of strikes among the staff of the public company Electricité de France (EDF), followed by a hardening of the social movement with certain employees reconnecting – often the result of individual initiatives – families to the network or refusing to disconnect any family – slogan: “Access to energy for all”. The concept of energy insecurity stems above all from social inequalities and energy access. At the European level, issues linked to the environment began to emerge at the same period – climate change, energy transition, etc. In France, the issue of energy insecurity came to life in the field of the environment (Grenelle II bill in 2007). By way of a comparison, these issues have been raised in the United Kingdom since the 1970s; in the United Kingdom it was more a public health issue than an environmental one: more elderly people die in winter because they do not have the means to keep themselves warm. In function of the contexts, of similar situations, the inclusion of the issue in public policies fluctuates according to different periods and related arguments. Energy insecurity in France or in England is referred to as a public issue by political scientists: that is to say a situation where at one moment; the players will rally to defend their cause. The emergence of a public issue does not always lead to consensus – in France some people wanted to talk about “energy security” while others preferred the term “energy poverty”. In France, the housing issue and access for all remain complicated. According to the Fondation Abbé Pierre charity organisation, one in eight people has difficulty finding or keeping accommodation. The poverty rate continues to increase: in 1997, 7% of the population lived beneath the poverty line; today this rate has doubled. The issue of energy security and access to energy came to light in the general context of the impoverishment of society and difficulties in gaining access to accommodation. What were the mechanisms of public policy in 2014? - Annual, or bi-annual, financial aid, from the State called the energy solidarity fund – a scheme that is quite unrealistic, poverty is lived out every day. - Social energy tariffs. - “Live better” programme: housing renovation– which is aimed more at the middle classes, as the investment expense must be advanced.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia The energy insecurity issue concerns substantial social problems (poverty levels, difficulties in accessing housing); however, the identified mechanisms remain at the fringes of the issue owing to their unrealistic aspects.

The Field Approach I am visiting some dilapidated housing in the northern neighbourhoods of Marseilles for the first time. I visit a workshop that aims to give practical advice for the improvement of housing organised by a social worker – for example, during a workshop they will explain how to replace a pane of glass. He asks me to introduce myself to the women present: “Hello, my name is Johanna. I’m a student and I’m working on issues linked to energy” The women looks at me doubtfully. I reformulate. “Yes, I’m working on heating problems for example”. A lady replies: “but… heating only, is that all? Because frankly, it’s not only heating that’s a problem. There are broken windows, gas leaks, bills; damp in the apartments, there’s rotten housing that’s too expensive and bad landlords. Landlords only know how to call you to get their money. That’s all they’re interested in” (Lees, 2014) The issue of energy access such as it is raised in public policies is ambiguous. In the field, there is a considerable gap. I have been doing fieldwork for more than three years. The objective is to spend as much time as possible with the women, with families – when the children come out of school, in their houses, etc. Being in a situation of energy insecurity notably means being cold at home. There are many implications: physical suffering, withdrawal (some people no longer go out, others go out to seek refuge in warm places). In the case of unpaid bills and debt, some families ration their use of energy (limiting it to heating). This situation may lead to cut-offs: without domestic energy, cooking becomes impossible unless families use an oil stove. Some families may also resort to asking their neighbours to conserve their food, but to do this they have to abandon any feelings of shame and benefit from good social relationships. Being in a state of energy insecurity also means: - Not having access to hot water for washing oneself. Women then heat water on a gas cooker in order to wash themselves and their children. This is both time-consuming and tedious – all too often, the women have at least three children; - Dangerousness of electrical installations – exposed wires, multiple extension cords, etc. this may result in an anxiety-creating atmosphere; - Only using one or two electrical appliances at a time so as to avoid tripping the circuit. In times of cold, certain living spaces are favoured: families group together in one same room to sleep in winter; - Experiencing lift failures – in buildings that are sometimes over fifteen floors high. Daily life is organised around this constraint: restriction on movement; return before nightfall, etc.

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition Some things are invisible and we have to go into the field in order to understand the difficulties families face. “Dwelling” is a universal, anthropological invariant. Dwelling allows us to establish a frontier between the inside and outside (protecting function). It’s a space of rest that protects us from the exterior – literally, but also symbolically. Here, this “protective” function is undermined by the cold. Because of electrical hazards, the danger is situated inside. A further aspect: keeping oneself balanced and constructing an identity. When we “dwell”, we cook at home, it’s a way of building our identity. This construction of identity is also found in hospitality. When we dwell in dilapidated housing, the situation becomes humiliating. Finally, one last function: continuity in time. Energy cut-offs may be perceived as spatial and temporal cut-offs. The function of continuity in time will then be dependent on repetitive power outages. All this goes to show that these situations have real effects on the individual, on his relation with others. The consequences are finally a lot more invisible and grave than first thought. The analysis of public policies provides some important elements, but it is essential to observe things in the field in order to grasp the global reality of the situation.

Day 3, Wednesday 13th July 2.1.5. Technical Networks and Social Networks Using the transmitted reading texts, a group does an exposé on energy networks within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). The objective is to bring elements of a response to: Southeast Asian regional integration dynamics – technical networks, political challenges; how to describe and qualify social networks operating at a local level, in a territory chosen by the trainees, for the offer and management of renewable energies.

[Sébastien Velut] The producing countries – Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar – and the consuming countries are more or less connected. What are the obstacles to integration in ASEAN countries?

Phạm Hoàng Phước Technical issues, capital and institutional divergences represent the principal obstacles to these projects.

Vũ Quý Sơn In comparison with Europe, the geography is not favourable to interconnection: insular and continental countries. What’s more, the choice of priority markets differs from country to country.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia [Sébastien Velut] Energy integration should indeed depend on technical networks, but also on the existence of a common development programme. At this level, it seems that there are indeed too many divergences to succeed in energy integration strictly speaking. There is a tension between neighbourhood logic and market logic – everywhere in the world, we find oil-producing companies that neighbouring countries wish to benefit greatly from. All too often, oil-producing companies sell on global markets and the fact of depending on neighbouring countries for oil is a factor in the crises that incite States to diversify the sources of energy implantations. To succeed in integration, a high level of confidence is necessary between partners. Energy integration is driven by traditional energies and not by renewable energies – except in the case of dams in Laos owing to their capacity to provide electricity to the whole system. These are however conflicting projects on a regional scale. These technical networks are physical networks – gas networks, electrical lines. It is possible to think beyond these networks; in reality, there are no energy systems without social networks. The notion of social networks implies the idea of multiple connections of various types between individuals; the logics of these are not only group and class logics, the connections engender social effects. When we address arena conflicts, we are also dealing with networks: how are the players in a conflict linked to one another? Who are they linked to? These categories of connection are extremely important in understanding how the players in a conflict are going to act. The strategic dimension of a player is measured against his capacity to create and play with the networks over time. This concept is developed in some branches of sociology – analysis and quantification of relationships between people. Energy networks are linked to physical connections and the bringing together of social players who share the same infrastructure. This does not mean that these players are equal, or that some are more powerful than others, but that they are playing in a certain way on a “game board” – different players (lumbermen, coal merchants, etc.) are linked together (marketing system); this is an existing social network behind a transfer of energy between the rural and urban space. Let us take the example of a service station, which is part of a social and technical network. When we fill our cars with petrol from the pump, this is the result of transport networks, transformation, and economic players that allow us access to fuel. It is important to think about how the fuel arrives at the pump in order to understand the energy system as a whole. In order to bring biofuel to the market, simply growing sugar cane is not enough. A series of players come together so that notably the products meet certain standards. The capacity to standardise is a consensus between the players in a network concerning the type of product that they are going to supply to the consumer. This assumes a network in which the players are going to share a certain number of norms, either by defining them together or by establishing a system of norms with the public authorities who are going to legislate, enact legislation in which usage norms are established – percentage of ethanol for example. The production of norms gives the customer confidence, contrary to other existing systems in the countryside where bio-fuel is used without respecting any norms whatsoever. The imposition of norms is also accompanied by taxation – collection of taxes on the ethanol

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition sector. In the functioning of these energy networks, as well as a technical and social side, it is necessary to gradually establish common rules in order to ensure the functioning of shared rules of play. At the players’ level, State intervention is often necessary in order to make the rules credible for consumers. By way of a comparison, let us look at the issues of energy integration in Europe and South America. The European energy network is a network of networks. It represents the interconnection of national networks built in the 1960s or 1970s. In the case of French networks, there was strong unity – still recently – owing to the presence of a dominant player: EDF, a national company that served the whole territory and was responsible for everything from production to customer supply. Trade between different countries more often than not includes France. The networks also have the role of connecting different countries. Other European countries, such as Spain, have totally different organisations: the electrical sectors are often decentralised (multitude of companies) and there are fewer connections with other countries. Establishing the European network entails the bringing together of countries whose organisation is different in terms of space and energy markets. The construction of a macro network does not simply entail connecting national networks; it is also necessary to establish common systems of rules. To this connected network corresponds a single energy market. Among other things, users may choose their energy provider, which allows each consumer to buy energy at the best price thanks to the lever of competition. Today in France, the consumer may purchase from producers of renewable energy – contracts with farmers having energy production systems on their farms (solar panels, wind farms) – thus ensuring an annual supply of electricity. The idea is interesting in terms of social change and the implementation of energy transition, but is only feasible when this type of distributing network covers the whole territory. Privatisation has brought to the energy market players that are supposed to be cheaper than EDF, but in reality, prices have hardly fallen for the consumer. Links will also be able to be recreated for the producer/supplier of this energy – as for food, the consumer wants to know the source of the product he’s using. This technological deployment leads to the development of a market – which is a social construction – and society equips itself with the techno-legal means to make this market function. The market is not a spontaneous creation, as economists would have us believe, but a voluntary creation by States. This interconnection does not prevent countries from having specific energy policies. Germany, for example, wishes to substantially increase the share of renewable energies that it produces and uses. It is in the process of shutting down its nuclear plants. Nevertheless, this strategy is only feasible if it is supported by the whole of the network and it buys electricity from France: Germany can only produce renewable energies because it uses non-renewable energies from neighbouring countries (!). Furthermore, the effect of introducing renewable energies is an increase in prices on the European market because their cost is higher than that of fossil fuels. Other cases of privatisation of the energy market, notably in Latin America, also result in higher prices. The idea that the market leads to a drop in price has not been empirically proved. Is energy

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia a right that must be ensured by the State? Or is it a good that must be provided by a market? If the latter is the case, a part of the population will not have access to it. The gas network is larger than the electricity network. It allows Europe to import gas from different suppliers: Russia, Central Asian countries, North African countries, Scotland and Norway. We can stock gas, which is not the case for electrical energy. However, these systems create dependencies in relation to the supplying countries and those through which the energy transits (Russia, the Ukraine, Bielorussia). Recently, this has created great tension between Russia and Europe and has led to concerns about gas supplies. If Russia decides to cut off supplies, Europe must negotiate. In other words, the electricity network truly integrates European countries. The gas network does not play the same integrating role. In Latin America, on the contrary, the network plays an integrating role, but in a more limited way and with some disadvantages. Compared with ASEAN, Latin America is rich in integration initiatives. Two systems appear: the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) that groups together Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay; and on the Pacific seaboard the Andean Community with Columbia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia. Venezuela and Chile are undecided about where to position themselves. To the north, Mexico forms with the United States and Canada a third trading group. Energy is one of the fundamental themes of this North-American integration. Mexico is an oil-producing country, Canada produces gas and electricity, and the United States also produces, but are above all consumers. Among all these countries, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world and Bolivia has substantial gas reserves. In the 1990s, a form of integration took shape mainly thanks to gas networks: from the producing centre (Bolivia) towards neighbouring countries (mainly Brazil). These connections do not coincide with the preceding geographical blocks. The forms of integration are mainly driven by private stakeholders. This integration through gas has badly functioned: - Gas production in Argentina has fallen. The country has preferred to halt its exports to Chile rather than cut off supply to its domestic market; - Bolivia has considered that the price paid for its gas was not high enough. In 2007, the State nationalised oils and increased their price. For Brazil, for example, integration has appeared less beneficial. Integration is not functioning well because of a lack of rules that are common to the States and to the players on the energy markets – behaviours are unpredictable, there is a lack of confidence. Similar problems arise at the ASEAN level. At the European Union level (EU), the political project is a priority: ensuring cooperation and, in the long term, the European Community. Latin America has sought to benefit from the economic complementarities between countries with resources and those with needs, but the political framework was insufficiently solid. This has engendered tensions between countries, notably between Chile and Argentina regarding gas supplies. The creation of energy interconnections for purely economic goals does not function and often leads to geopolitical conflicts between States. What’s more, the existence of large connections is no proof of the globalisation of energy access – the case of Latin America since the priority is not to ship it at the lowest price. Technical integration is not

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition synonymous with political integration; technical progress does not determine social progress. We can be connected at a continental level without being connected at a country level.

Phạm Hoàng Phước For Europe, consumers have a choice. They can choose their suppliers, who create the networks themselves.

[Sébastien Velut] Choosing an energy supplier does not mean that the supplier installs a line to your house, but that he injects into the network, at a certain moment, the quantity of energy that the consumer needs. The companies do not set up networks that compete with one another; they all share the same network and benefit from the same tariff conditions for connections.

[Johanna Lees] We have to separate energy distribution and the supplier whose energy we are paying for.

[Sébastien Velut] We have to understand that regulation is part of a legal framework – knowing for example if the rules are applied by the energy suppliers, the distributors – and ensuring the correct technical circulation of energy.

[Johanna Lees] The network remains national but energy distribution is privatised. The suppliers buy energy from the national network that they resell.

Nguyễn Ngọc Vàng Can the network be seen as a value chain?

[Sébastien Velut] The value chain is the one that goes from the oil well to the consumer. When you transport energy in the network, the price is the same for everyone. A company needs a certain amount of power for a certain amount of time; it will therefore seek a supplier that offers this power at the cheapest price. Two distinctions must be made: - Between the individual domestic user– long-term contract for electricity supply with guaranteed or defined prices – and the consumer – notably industries that may have contracts directly with the producer and renegotiate these contracts; - The energy prices are generally subject to a certain number of taxes. The price is not therefore only linked to the cost of energy production.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Đinh Lê Na You said that it is necessary to define common rules to make this type of system work. After Brexit, what would happen if France left the EU?

[Sébastien Velut] From a technical point of view, the British market is not really integrated into the European one. We may imagine that economic rules apply to energy markets without there being the same degree of political coordination. Some authors think that the depletion of fossil fuels will lead some regions to make better use of their resources; the interconnections will thus become less significant. The fashionable concept of Smart grids allows for local management. This intelligent electrical network interconnects a heterogeneous series of producers and consumers thanks to the advanced usage of information technologies. What are their special features? The user is identified and connected at a household level and at the level of the different appliances used (water heater, refrigerator, washing machine etc.) in a way that allows the householder to use them when the energy is available. A user can thus become a supplier: case of a user with solar panels. These micro networks will allow an instantaneous balance between the production sources of renewable energy (wind, solar energy, etc.) and the discontinuous uses over time thanks to technological devices.

Day 4, Thursday 14th July 2.1.6. Environmental Inequalities, Health, Mobilisations The morning begins with two exposés dealing with environmental inequalities in Việt Nam and Cambodia – these are respectively the ocean disposal of polluted waste in April 2016 by the chemical company Formosa (Taiwan) located in the province of Hà Tĩnh and the dumping, in 1998, of containers containing toxic waste, without informing or protecting the population, by the Formosa Plastics Corporation, in an area near to the city of Sihanoukville.

[Johanna Lees] One of the main aspects in the concept of environmental inequality is health. This concept emerged in the United States in the 1970s and was developed by Robert D. Bullard in his research into black and Hispanic populations living near to industrial factories (Bullard, 1994 and 2000). The effects of the stockpiling of toxic waste principally affected poorer and more vulnerable populations (Amerindians, Afro-Americans, Hispanics). The issue of environmental inequalities gave rise to numerous mobilisations and the concept gradually became part of the civil rights movement in the United States. What is environmental justice? It is the equal treatment of the whole of the population, irrespective of race, colour or income in accordance with the environment. In this conception, there is the idea

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition that there exists a type of environmental racism that is thought to lead to discrimination against certain groups because of the colour of their skin and causes them to suffer the effects and risks of a polluted environment. Environmental racism is the intention – or not – to discriminate against groups according to their ethnic origins. Robert D. Bullard demonstrated that the black populations in Houston were over-exposed to environmental risks – six of the eight incinerators and fifteen of the seventeen public landfills were situated in black neighbourhoods. He also threw light on the fact that the political fragilities of these populations allowed environmental racism, as they do not benefit from any real opportunities to rally and claim their rights (Bullard, 1994 and 2000). Let us take the study of the l’étang de Berre located at Fos-sur-mer, 50 km from Marseilles in France. It is the location of the largest chemical industrial zone in southern Europe. It is the site of nearly 400 industrial plants: chemical industries, oil refineries, gas storage centres; steel works, etc. More than 58 Seveso sites are registered there: the Seveso directive is a generic name of a series of European directives that oblige member States of the EU to identify industrial sites that present the risk of major accidents. Spread out among thirty or so towns, 400 000 people live in this area – more than 30% are workers compared to 15% in the region. The industrial space is the source of polluting emissions (arsenic, lead, heavy metals, etc.) and a group of chemical agents that are factors in the increase in the rate of cardio-vascular and respiratory illnesses and cancer. At a local level, local idioms often refer to death (Allen, Cohen, Ferrier, Lees, 2017).

“Here is Fos-sur-mer, it’s the burial pit into which people are thrown”

“Here, I can tell you clearly, it’s a living cemetery”

“They’re killing us for profit, they’re poisoning us, they’re killing the planet”

The factories were built in the 1970s, in Camargue, a place of exceptional natural beauty and a major watering hole for the passage of migratory birds. There is a major contradiction between this exceptional natural site and its industrial dimension. A participatory study in environmental health was launched owing to the numerous questions raised by the local population concerning their state of health and demands for more transparency on the subject. No serious epidemiological study had been previously conducted, in spite of the growing concern – the population had occupied the social security centre in order to obtain data concerning their state of health. 4000 dwellings were visited during the study and nearly 900 questionnaires were returned. The goal was to ascertain types of exposure and illness people were subject to in a professional framework. It was also necessary to obtain information on eating habits. Here are a few results: 44% of the respondents suffered from sore eyes, 37% from frequent headaches, 43% from repetitive nose and throat complaints, 15% of adults suffer from asthma (compared to 10% of the national population), 11.8% of the population had suffered from or is suffering from cancer (compared to 6% of the population as a whole), etc. The allegations made by the local population in terms of health are founded and confirmed by the study.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Let us also retrace the history of a waste incinerator installed in the same region subsequent to the development of these industries. A project for an incinerator began in the 2000s; it was to be built in Marseilles. Following the rallying of the local population, the project for the building of the project in the eastern neighbourhood of Marseilles was rejected; the northern neighbourhoods of Marseilles (more fragile at the economic and social level than the eastern neighbourhoods of the city) were chosen for the installation of the project. However, after the mobilisation of the city’s major players, it was decided to relocate the project to the outskirts of the city in the Fos-sur-mer industrial zone. In reality, it was a typical case of environmental inequality. An industrial installation was implanted in an already polluted zone. The local population was thus subject to a multiplication of harmful effects from the presence of industrial plants all implanted on the same territory. The installation of the incinerator on this territory was seen as a denial of democracy at a local level: indeed, the inhabitants of the industrial zone greatly rallied against the implantation of the incinerator in this zone. However, the political decision to install the incinerator there, in spite of the mobilisation, was perceived by the local population as yet another “environmental” injustice.

[Sébastien Velut] Can you explain to us how this study was conducted?

[Johanna Lees] The field set the conditions for the conception of the study, which led us to tackle the public health issues that made sense for the inhabitants, the doctors and certain associations. The questionnaire was developed with the players. It took us about two years to develop the questionnaire and conduct the fieldwork. The participatory inquiry really began with the acquisition of the first results that were presented to the population. After having formed work groups, the individuals analysed and interpreted the results in function of their experience of the territory and their local knowledge – knowledge of the winds, emissions of different types of pollutants, of the neighbourhoods (workers’ profiles), etc. This local interaction guided our thinking towards new research avenues. The local players were able to contest the incinerator project by measuring the levels of pollution thanks to the acquisition of precise scientific and technical knowledge. The mobilisation led the inhabitants to rally together in the aim of opposing the public powers. To conclude, here is the extract of a speech given by the mayor of Fos-sur-Mer during the demonstrations against the incinerator: “What is happening to us in Fos is only a reflection of the policies of a government that does not listen to its citizens, that orders the CRS – Compagnies Républicaines de Sécurité – to charge on young people who do not want the society that is being offered to them, a society of poverty and contempt. In Fos, as in France, the powers have decided to do what is dictated to them by a world of profit. In Fos, the prefect and the mayor of Marseilles are not at all concerned about us. In France, they set the CRS on the young, the unions and elected representatives. What has this Republic that no longer listens to its children, its people who are voicing their despair and anger, become? What is this republic that can only offer a future of poverty to its young? Here we are, back to the good old

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition colonial period where the master dispensed his largesse to the court and humiliated the people who worked for him. The youth of this country is forcing this government to backtrack through rallying together and showing its strength. Young people are fighting for their professional future. Here in Fos, we are fighting for the future of future generations who wish to live in a healthy environment.” (Lees, 2014)

[Sébastien Velut] I am interested in the methodological aspects, how the inhabitants perceive environmental problems and how they live with them. This method may be reused in any other context to understand the position of populations. It is not only important to perceive their feelings, but to work together as well, to establish an understanding of what is happening in order to modify the situation. The inquiry that was conducted among the populations completes the gathered data – by hospitals for example: we know how many patients seek consultations, for which illness(es), etc. It is possible to establish the health situation of the territory. I would like to come back to the issue of environmental justice: speak about inequalities and justice. We know that the measure of injustice has multiple dimensions (political, economic, etc.). For a long time the social sciences limited themselves to political and economical injustices – income and position in society. With the work of Engels about the working classes in the 19th century in Great Britain, we understand that the living conditions of populations are a barrier to the healthy development of people. We gradually realised that the development of industrial society was a catalyst of disasters and environmental upsets (Carson, 1968); we are now beginning to crosscut the environmental issue with the usual categories of inequality: social class, race and gender. These environmental inequalities may be listed in terms of risks (case of Fos-sur-mer) or in terms of access to resources (fresh water, air quality, environmental resources for economic activities, etc.) The poor populations generally live in the areas that are most exposed to natural risks (land slides, flooding, etc.) These disasters affect poorer neighbourhoods more than they affect rich ones. The Millenium Ecosystem Assessment methodology was implemented by the United Nations to assess the capacity of an ecosystem to provide, or not, the goods and services that society needs. A certain number of questions are raised: what is the capacity of an ecosystem to regenerate itself in relation to the anthropic disturbances it is subject to? Should we continue to use the resources of certain ecosystems? How should we regulate access to this ecosystem? These inequalities in access and the way in which they are regulated lead us to the notion of justice. We are entering another debate as we may say that these injustices are inevitable: they are in society and society is unequal. However, we may esteem that certain inequalities are not desirable, that they are unfair. I think that environmental justice such as it is conceived in the United States is very normative – between what is fair and unfair. In the speech by the mayor of Fos-sur-mer, there was the notion of justice linked to a certain idea of the Republic. This leads to the bringing to the forefront of political ecology approaches: this entails understanding how the power relationships for the distribution of unequal access to natural resources are regulated. It’s a crosscutting approach that lies between political sciences, anthropology, history and geography. It seeks to understand the position of the State – what are

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia the economic interests that lead to the dumping of pollution in one zone rather than another? In the case of Việt Nam, presented at the beginning of the session, we indeed had local problems of industrial pollution but, implicitly, it means opting for a model of economic development, knowing how the State controls businesses and the type of capitalism in place. We also have to reflect on the question of conflicts surrounding inequality and environmental justice issues. We have to understand what each player is defending, their demands and what is behind these demands, and, at a more political level, what are the players’ positions in relation to these environmental conflicts. Do the conflicts engender new norms, new compromises, and new alliances? In Chile, some colleagues have demonstrated that there are more conflicts in wealthy neighbourhoods where the inhabitants find it easier to take legal steps in order to block real estate development projects. There are indeed cases of environmental injustice, but there is no conflict because there is a form of social control that blocks their development. For my part, I worked in regions where extremely polluting industries were implanted, but the population was satisfied because these industries provided jobs, funded schools, etc. Just like in the zones surrounding nuclear power stations, a discourse was implemented that made people believe that their implantation was a great opportunity, even though there were situations of proven risk.

The workshop is divided into work groups in order to prepare feedback of the week’s work that will be given on Saturday morning in a plenary session. The main avenues of reflection are organised around the following questions: what is energy transition? How is it conceived by the different players? What criticisms might we make about it?

Day 5, Friday 15th July 2.1.7. Energy Poverty, Norms of Energy Consumption and Notions of Comfort [Johanna Lees] The notion of comfort develops over time, according to societies and to technical progress. Some populations will prioritise the security aspect, whereas others will prioritise technical issues and air conditioning. Norms of comfort lie at the heart of energy transition and equal access for all issues. In France, in the 1950s, only 4% of houses had access to running water compared to 95% today. Then the installation of electricity and heating was enforced by law. Since 2009, the absence of heating is a criterion that identifies inadequate housing. Comfort is often a historical process and is not regulatory in its own right. From a technical norm, the notion slides into a social norm; this link is important when raising questions about energy issues because we have to consume energy to

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition benefit from necessary comfort. At the beginning of the week, some of you stated that it was not necessary for everyone to have access to energy, but because of a whole set of comfort norms, energy access is going to become a social necessity. In order to exist and be socially recognised, it is important to have access to an energy supply. Extract from an interview with a person who was badly housed for a long time in Marseilles and who is currently well housed (Lees, 2014): “And now, what about you, in your apartment, are you more comfortable? –Yes, yes, it’s better; I’m in a comfortable apartment. – What makes an apartment comfortable for you? – Well, for me a comfortable apartment is when it’s heated.“ The poorest, most poverty stricken populations, internalise technical norms. For the sake of normality, energy consumption concerns all types of population. Extract from an interview with a Comorian lady who lived in Madagascar and then in France without having access to electricity for more than a year in her apartment (Lees, op. cit) : “How long were you without electricity in this apartment? – For quite a while, more than a year. – A year without electricity. So how did you get by? – Well, we made the most of things. In the evening we used candles. – And what did you do to keep warm? – To keep warm we had a petrol stove. – So not having any light was not a problem? – No, no… it wasn’t a serious problem. I lit a lot of candles, because I was scared for my children. I was also scared of starting a fire. We all stayed in the living room with the children. And for television we had the neighbour’s television, I used an extension. – You didn’t have electricity, you had no light, but you had TV ? – Yes... I had TV for the children. It kept them occupied. For the candles, it wasn’t so funny, but at least we had the neighbour’s TV. – But for you, was it more important to have TV or electricity – Yes, yes... TV was more important than electricity.” The absence of electricity is not perceived as the deprivation of a first necessity: the candles compensate for this lack. Then the family had at its disposal a mass consumption good, the television set. Since this family grew up in Madagascar and did not have access to electricity, this does not represent a real problem for them in France; comfort norms in terms of usage depend on the place and the time dimension – at what moment in a temporal space. Having a television set may be seen as an access to an energy-using product that is a factor of social recognition. We can observe a banalisation and normalisation of comfort criteria; there are those who live below the minimum

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia threshold and the others. This engenders a division between the comfortable and those who lack comfort. This process is the source of a form of segregation: in a society that promises comfort and consumerism, those who do not have the means to consume – energy or consumer goods – feel themselves to be socially demoted. Interview conducted in Marseilles. Forty Rom families live in a squat, all work as scrap dealers. They have no official access to energy. Four or five families have got together to buy a power generator. An evening costs six euros. The families earn between 30 and 40 euros a day thanks to the sale of scrap. Statement taken from one of the family’s fathers (Lees, op, cit): “Now we have to pay for the generator for electricity. But the price has risen. We used to pay 6 euros each. One day you pay, the next day I pay. And the price ended up rising, and now it’s 10 euros a night. – But it’s just for the night? – Yes... the electricity is just for the night. In the daytime we don’t need any. God gives light and sun to everyone, but not energy. We share, but at night there isn’t any. – So you pay 10 euros for electricity at night? – yes... we buy diesel. In fact it only lasts four or five hours. – So, you have electricity from what time to what time? – From 7pm to 11pm. The jerry can does not last longer than four hours. But night is for sleeping and the day’s for working. Me and my wife, at night, at 10 or 11pm we go to bed, we’re knackered. The electricity is in fact for the kids. We sleep. They sit in front of the TV and play video games. That’s why we have electricity”. Having access to energy allows people to turn on the TV and play video games. Even in difficult conditions, we might think that they could do without consumer goods; the reality in the field proves the contrary. The inquiry shows, in the case of this family, that energy allows people to satisfy secondary needs. These comfort norms define what is socially acceptable and what is not included in the consumption usages of energy consumption.

Yolande Leondaris Razafindrakoto In Madagascar, social exclusion exists between children. When children do not have television, they cannot follow the daily films and series, so they cannot discuss them with other children. Social exclusion begins at this level.

Latdany Latdamy In Laos, in the mountainous areas, the houses have a satellite dish. For them, it’s a way of remaining connected to the outside world.

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition [Sébastien Velut] What are the forms of consumption and the representations of comfort of a growing middle class – case of Việt Nam? The requirements include the necessity of having air-conditioning, several television sets, etc. In other words, this middle class is demanding modes of energy consumption that are probably unsustainable. Work is being carried out to bring services to poorer populations, to the slum neighbourhoods. These inhabitants are not satisfied because they want to have the same systems for water and light, etc. They want to benefit from the same comfort norms as wealthier inhabitants. This increases energy consumption.

[Johanna Lees] Is the transition from fossil energies to renewable energies going to be enough to meet growing energy demands? Should we think differently by raising the issue of consumption on a collective scale? In France, social workers visit poor families in order to give advice in terms of energy consumption. If the norms spelled out are not respected, these families are judged to be transgressive. Extract from an interview with an EDF agent responsible for counselling families (Lees, op. cit.): “It’s true that I tell people that there are comfort norms, 19 degrees Celsius in occupied rooms, 17 degrees in bedrooms. They tell me that it’s not enough. I tell them that that’s the rule, that’s it’s a norm. When it’s cold, you put on a pullover; you don’t turn up the heating. That’s the responsible norm. And it is thought that there is a certain comfort. In fact there is a distortion between behaviour and the way people think. Yes it’s true that people are always complaining that the price of electricity is rising. But after, when we analyse the situation, it’s different, because they are in fact consuming a lot more than they used to.” This means educating the poor about energetically and ecologically correct behaviour. These educational campaigns may be perceived as violent. In the field, we realise that poor people are often in situations of restrictions and contempt for their energy consumption. Although these people live in conditions of poverty and aspire to consume energy, they have to constantly manage their energy consumption. These training programmes attempt to make the individual responsible, this avoids having to ask questions at the collective level: the effect may be to depoliticise issues at the political, economic and social level – if this is your fault, there is no problem of energy transition or finiteness of resources!

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia

The session winds up with two case studies, Myanmar and Laos. For the trainees, this entails discussing the following questions: (i) from your knowledge and experience of Southeast Asia, how can we classify, at a local level, forms of environmental inequality? Do these environmental inequalities result in mobilisations and controversies? If yes, what type?; (ii) from the issue of energy transition, and contemporary energetic and environmental challenges, give some examples of current global environmental inequalities. What issues do these examples raise in terms of public policies at the local and global scale?

2.1.8. The Territory, an Analysis Category Diagram 3. Dimensions of the Territory

Source: authorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s construction.

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition [Sébastien Velut] The issue of territory concerns the way in which we think about relations between society and terrestrial space. Society transforms not only its space, but is also influenced by the space in which it lives. At first, the approach was deterministic: the natural environment determines society; then we sought to understand how society transformed these spaces and made the most of the possibilities they offered – a hotter climate with more abundant rainfall leads to different choice in the way people live. Today, the approach is more systemic; there are interrelations between society and space. The territorial approach gives order to our knowledge and the ways we understand relationships between societies and the earth’s surface on different scales (see diagram 3). We can only think of territory by using four main inputs, four descriptions of territorial dimension: - The natural environment – supplier of energy potential –; - Spatial organisations – how is the population distributed in the territory? How are the lines of communication organised? Who deals with the material organisation of space? –; - The social players – very often, the field shows who the real players are; the system of players must be thought about in relation to each situation; - Finally, we have to give meaning to the situation in which we find ourselves – how do we represent ourselves, think about the territory, ourselves and others in order to understand the way in which certain players are going to act, grasp the meaning given to situations and actions in order to interpret them. These relations are systemic. There is no causality between the environment and organisation, the players and the forms of representation. It is from the inventory of these different dimensions that we undertake a territorial analysis – a tool of action and connection between research and public policies. This means understanding how a territory functions and improving it in function of certain criteria and outside values. Here is a graph representing energy consumption (see graph 13). There is a strong correlation between urban density and consumption per inhabitant: the higher the density, the lower energy consumption is. From a transport point of view, certain territorial organisations are more efficient than others in terms of energy usage. Three main groups clearly stand out corresponding to a group of cities and countries: European, American and Australian cities. Density is correlated to political and historical factors that lead to certain forms of city – Houston, for example, in the heart of Texas, is the capital of oil; the factors are not only linked to the organisation of the territory. Finally, to respond to energy transition issues, we can first of all work on the construction of a map, the precise inventory of resources and needs. We can observe the way in which societies function, the organisation of space, their culture and their environment. A link must be made between energy transition and the territorial development process: land usage decisions – how are we going to plan cities and new neighbourhoods while taking into account energy optimisation and inhabitants’

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia demands? How can we make the most of the territory’s energy resources? How do we carry out energy transition while including the different aspects of territorial life? Graph 13. Urban Density and Consumption linked to Transport

Source: Newman, P. and J. Kentworthy (1989).

Reading texts Bridge, G. Bouzarovsky, S. Brashaw, M. Eyre (2013), "Geographies of Energy Transition: Space, Place and the Low Carbon Economy", Energy Policy, 53, pp. 331-340. Bierschenk, T. and J-P. Olivier de Sardan, « Un canevas d’enquête collective multi-sites »: ECRIS, Cf. www.tamdaoconf.com (2008). Grubler, A. (2012), “Energy Transitions Research: Insights and Cautionary Tales”, Energy Policy. 50, pp. 8-16.

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition Hira, A. (2003), “Does Energy Integrate”, Energy Policy, 31/2. pp. 185-199. Lees, J. (2014), Ethnographier la précarité énergétique: au-delà de l’action publique, des mises à l’épreuve de l’habiter, Thèse de doctorat en sociologie, EHESS, Marseille, 12 septembre, https://halshs. archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-01117039 Olivier de Sardan, J.-P. (1995), Anthropologie et développement – Essai en socioanthropologie du changement social, Karthala, Paris, 221 p. Revel, J. (dir.) (1996), Jeux d’échelles. La micro-analyse à l’expérience, Paris, Gallimard and Le Seuil, coll. Hautes Études, 243 p., bibliogr. par Raymond Massé, Anthropologie et Sociétés, vol. 20, n° 3, pp. 143-145. Sivarajah, U., Z. Irani, N. Savino, J.-P. Jiménez, H. Lee, R. Rascazzo, V. Molendini et A. Martin (2015), “Decision Support System for Fostering Smart Energy Efficient Districts”, Twenty-first Americas Conference on Information Systems, Puerto Rico. Turner, O., B. Kinnane et B. Basu (2014), “Demand-Size Characterization of the Smart City for Energy Modeling”, 6th International Conference on Sustainability in Energy and Buildings, Energy Procedia, 62 p. Velut, S. (2013), « La transition énergétique », in Euzen, A. L. Eymard, and F. Gaill, Le développement durable à découvert, éditions du CNRS.

Select Bibliography Allen, B. (2006), "Cradle of a Revolution? The Industrial Transformation of Louisiana’s Lower Mississippi River", Technology and Culture, Volume 47, Number 1, January, pp. 112-119. Allen, B., A. Cohen, Y. Ferrier and J. Lees (2017), Fos EPSEAL, Étude participative en santé environnement ancrée localement sur le front industriel de Fos-sur-Mer et Port-Saint-Louis-du-Rhône, Rapport final, Centre Norbert Elias : Marseille. Bullard, R.D (2000), Dumping in Dixie: Race, Class, and Environmental Quality, 3rd Edition, Westview Press. Bullard, R.D (ed.) (1994), Unequal Protection: Environmental Justice and Communities of Color, San Francisco: Sierra Club Books. Carrizo, S., S. Velut and J. Hevia, « Le Nord du Chili : un isolat énergétique dans un désert minier », Cybergeo : European Journal of Geography [En ligne], Espace, Société, Territoire, article 567. Carson, R. L. (1968), Le Printemps silencieux, Plon. Chabrol, M. and L. Grasland (2014), « Contraintes spatiales et enjeux territoriaux d’une déclinaison régionale de la transition énergétique : l’exemple de la région Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur », VertigO - la revue électronique en sciences de l’environnement [En ligne], Volume 14, n° 3. URL : http:// vertigo.revues.org/15657 ; DOI : 10.4000/vertigo.15657

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Criqui, P. and S. La Branche (2016), « Compteur électrique linky, comprendre la polémique ». The Conversation. 23 mai, http://theconversation.com/compteur-electrique-linky-comprendre-la-polemique-59769 Di Méo, G. (2008), « Une géographie sociale entre représentations et action. Montagnes méditerranéennes et développement territorial » – https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00281573/ document. Granovetter, M. (1973), "The Strength of Weak Ties", American Journal of Sociology, vol. 78/6, Mai, pp. 1360-1380. Moine, A. (2006), « Le territoire comme système complexe. Des outils pour l’aménagement et la géographie », L’Espace géographique, n°2, pp. 115-132. Newman, P. and J. Kentworthy (1989), Sustainable and Cities: Overcoming Automobile Dependence, Island Press, Washington. ONU-Habitat (2005), Responding to the Challenge of an Urbanizing Word, UN-Habitat. Valarié, P. (2007), « La gestion intégrée de l’eau à l’épreuve de la biodiversité », communication ERSA, Papers in Regional Science. XIX. Vol. 2.

Online resources http://www.mrcmekong.org/ http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2012/11/08/au-laos-le-chantier-du-barrage-controversesur-le-mekong-relance_1787739_3244.html http://www.energy-uk.org.uk/policy/fuel-poverty.html https://www.turn2us.org.uk/Benefit-guides/Fuel-Poverty/What-is-fuel-poverty https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/18/nigeria-labour-congress-union-defies-banlaunch-fuel-strike http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/jan/09/working-households-fuel-poverty-rising-energy-bills-policy-exchange https://www.entsoe.eu/Pages/default.aspx https://www.epa.gov/environmentaljustice/learn-about-environmental-justice https://www.nrdc.org/stories/environmental-justice-movement http://deohs.washington.edu/environmental-justice “Our Living River: Voices against Xayaburi” (2012), movie from Natalie Maib, with the Thai NGO Living River Siam – https://youtube/u1d-iS1Y-W8

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Tools for a Local Approach to Energy Transition

List of trainees Name

Establishment

Field/research discipline

Research topic

Đặng Viết Đạt

Political training institute

Public management

Energy security and sustainable development

vietdatdanghv4@ gmail.com

Đinh Lê Na

Sustainable urban development

Water and environment

lenadinh@gmail. com

Latmany Latdany

Department of French, Literature faculty, National University of Laos

Human and social sciences

Entrepreneurship and young graduates

latmanyl@yahoo.fr

Ma Doãn Giang

Institute of forestry research and development Thái Nguyên University of agriculture and forestry

Forestry

Accumulation of carbon in preservation of natural species areas in Nam Xuân Lạc, district Chợ Đồn, province of Bắc Cạn

gianglnbk@gmail. com

Keomanichanh Mimy

Laboratoire de changement social et politique (LCSP)

Migration and development

Female migration towards urban areas

mimikmnc@gmail. com

Nguyễn Ngọc Vàng

University of An Giang

Agricultural economics

Sustainable development

ngocvangnguyen@gmail.com

Nguyễn Xuân Tùng

Institute of Southeast Asian research

Economics

ASEAN

xuantung23992@ gmail.com

Phạm Hoàng Phước

Institute of research for the development of Hồ Chí Minh City

Urbanism

Energy, social change and economic development

phamhoang phuoc87@gmail. com

Khemngeun Pongmala

Faculty of environmental sciences, National University of Laos

Environment

Water contamination

kpongmala@gmail. com

Su Thet Paing

Mandalay University of Foreign Languages

stpjinjin@gmail. com

SOR Sopunna

General department of taxes

Foreign investment in Cambodia

Foreign direct investment and taxation

punna.sor@gmail. com

A A Thant

Ministry of planning and finance

aathant4290@ gmail.com

Trần Lan Hương

GASS

Economics

Cultural economics

scattytranlanhuong@gmail.com

Trịnh Thị Hiền

Institute of research for the development of Hồ Chí Minh City

Urban environment

Green growth and sustainable development

tthien.hids@ tphcm.gov.vn

Sounanxay Vongphokham

Faculty of literature, department of French, National University of Laos

Education

French as a foreign language

sounanxay_5m@ yahoo.fr

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Name

Establishment

Field/research discipline

Research topic

Vũ Quý Sơn

VASS

Regional studies

China and electrical energy transition in countries in the Mekong sub-region

quehuong1983@ gmail.com

Vũ Thị Ngọc Bích

Thủ Dầu Một University

Administrative management

Energy transition

bichvu13@gmail. com

Léondaris Razafindrakoto Fanjambola Yolande

NGO EFA

yolande.leondaris@ucpasa.eu

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2.2. Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors Hélène Dessard, Denis Gautier, Laurent Gazull - CIRAD

(Transcript) Day 1, Monday 10th July Introduction of trainers and trainees (see list of trainees and biographies).

[Laurent Gazull] We are going to work together on the tools of representation, understanding and analysis of a sector conceived as a system. The notion of a supply sector in fuel wood or biomass energy in a village, a city or a country will be our guiding thread; a sector is a group of players and operations that transform a raw product – sugar cane, wood – into a finished product – ethanol, charcoal, etc.

2.2.1. Systemic Analysis: Concepts and Methods [Denis Gautier] My presentation refers to the questions raised during the summary of the plenary sessions proposed by Alexis Drogoul: how can we grasp the complexity of things? The most usual definition of the word system can be summed up in a few words: “a set of inter acting elements”. Such a definition, which is too general, does not suffice to give a rigorous framework to this notion. A second definition, which is also relatively common, may be expressed in these terms: “a system is a group of dynamic, interacting elements, organised in function of a goal”. As well as the idea of dynamic, and not static, interaction, this definition introduces the idea of purpose. Although more complete, this definition is once again very general. Attempting to understand the concept of a “system” with a definition therefore seems to be awkward. To put it more simply, this attempt to grasp the concept must instead be done by the indirect enrichment of the concept of a system through the description of the main characteristics and properties of the systems.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Before addressing these two issues, we have to return to aspects of origin and consider the important role of systems analysis in the way scientists address phenomena. We have to remember that, for a long time, we simplified the way in which we understood these scientific facts and this entailed the breaking down of elementary facts. Indeed, anything that went beyond simplicity was set aside. Microeconomics for example speaks about economic agents and seeks to understand consumption habits and production behaviours. On the contrary, the macro-economic vision globalises things: we speak about groups, corporate groups, social groups and aggregates. Between these two visions, the question was raised about how to speak about complexity, how to admit that in a foresight scenario there may be uncertainties, irreversibility and random phenomena may also play an important role, as underlined by Gaël Giraud in the inaugural plenary session. Systems analysis precisely attempts to meet this challenge! It is presented as a method for solving problems and, on this basis, it recognises complexity as a tool, which it is important to implement. It raises questions about behaviours: how can the behaviours of the players in a system be modified. And finally, it reflects upon foresight in terms of public policies, social policies and even in terms of environmental policies, as we may be obliged to make a series of decisions that integrate this irreversibility. Photo 4. Founding Fathers of Systems Analysis

Source: author’s construction.

Since the 1930s a so-called “systems” current of thought has developed that stemmed from an awareness of complexity. The ambition of the founding fathers was to develop methodologies that allowed them to overcome the difficulties they met when attempting to understand complex problems using existing analytical tools. For three decades, the constructive dialogue between

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors different scientific disciplines was to give rise to the main principles that form the basis of systems analysis. This dialogue essentially took place within the prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in Boston. Norbert Wiener, a mathematics professor at the MIT played an important role in the way in which we scientifically understand systems analysis. He spoke back then about “cybernetics”. He worked on the systems of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and weapons systems and his ambition was to learn how to communicate between these systems and how to anticipate the behaviours of aircraft pilots and satellites. Wiener in fact examined how to make NASA programmes and methods more complex. The second person was the biologist Ludwig von Bertalanffy. It was he who understood that a system remains always open, data flow continually in and out. The system is open and thus becomes self-organised. The system is in fact capable of existing by itself, of functioning alone, it evolves and self-organisation necessarily plays an essential role. Bertalanffy was the author of a first publication: the general theory of systems. The third person was Jay Forrester who was also at the MIT and was to work on the famous simulation model concerning the depletion of natural resources and his work was cited in the Meadows’ report (Meadows et al., 1972). We may add to this trio a fourth person who did not speak about systems analysis as such, but had the ability to navigate in uncertainty, randomness and complexity: Edgar Morin, the French sociologist and philosopher. Whatever the level of their complexity, the systems present a certain number of common characteristics: - Firstly, at risk of ceasing to exist, the systems entertain a permanent relationship with their environment. We speak about the openness of systems. The systems that we are going to study are constantly interacting with their ecosystem that they modify and which in turn modifies them; - Next, the systems may be described by a certain number of their elements such as their components, the relationships between these, their frontiers, etc. A classic method used to study a system is dual characterisation through its structural and functional aspect; - The systems are characterised by the tree-structure principle, that is to say the elements of a whole system are hierarchized into levels of organisation, which particularly legitimises the breaking down of a system into sub-systems; - The systems are finalised. The finality that transcendentally determines the system’s behaviour manifests itself for example by a capacity to maintain their equilibrium by regulation phenomena; - The systems need variety, which is a sine qua non condition for the capacity to adapt, and therefore to survive, of any system; - Finally, the systems are self-organising. They possess the dual capacity to adapt to, and maintain, internal coherence for their intended purpose. This capacity is mainly based on the equilibrium ensured by the complementarity of the amplifying role of the positive feedback loops and the regulating role of negative feedback loops.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia A feedback principle is a principle that is applied when the effect retroacts on the cause and amplifies or diminishes the new effect. It is particularly applied to all the non-linear principles that we may find in the majority of social and environmental issues: climate change, deforestation, disappearance of biodiversity, rural exodus, desertification, social disparities, migration, etc. Systems analysis is based on some important architecture. The structural aspect corresponds to the spatial organisation of the different elements in the system, whereas with functional analysis it is more particularly a question of characterising time-dependent phenomena: flows, exchanges, transfer, etc. Thus, the principal structural traits of any system are its frontier, its constituent parts, its reservoirs or stocks, and its principal communication networks. As for the system’s functional traits, these are flows of energy, matter or information, with valves controlling the rate of different flows, the timelines and the feedback loops.

[Laurent Gazull] Demand may be measured by flows of energy, material, food or, a lot more simply by flows of information. Diagram 4. Structural Aspect of a System

Source: author’s construction.

[Denis Gautier] A system’s architecture is above all structural. It refers to several questions: - A system has frontiers. A system will thus always be defined by its frontiers and it is a significant challenge to define them;

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors - A system refers to its constituent parts. What are the agents that are going to define this system? When we speak about an ecosystem for example, we can imagine that flora, fauna and also humans constitute these different parts; - We understand that these parts interact with each other. Information circulates: the emitter and the receiver and the cognitive biases when you receive a message, are you sure to have correctly understood this message?; - A system such as an ecosystem refers to storage : how is the information stored? How is it decrypted? And in what way does this storage become useful for understanding the evolution of the system? Diagram 5. Functional Aspect of a System

Source: author’s construction.

Progressively, the systems approach went beyond the structural approach. It has allowed us to grasp how things function because when we speak about the functional aspect, we talk about flows. For a long time, we stored and we experimented with the storage capacities of the constituent parts. We now estimate that the flows – of energy, material or information – have played an important role in the systems approach. Then, above all, we are going to consider that, behind these flows, there are people making decisions. Decision-making centres transmit information – information about flows for example – and, at the same time, decrypt it in order to modify it, if need be, which will influence our understanding of systems. A system contains feedback loops. Some of these are positive feedback loops: they are going to amplify the phenomenon; others are negative feedback loops and they are going to stabilise the phenomenon. All models and all systems cycles contain this type of positive and negative feedback loop.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia Finally, a fourth functional element: response time. All the systems do not have the same response times. Nature needs time to react; economic growth and a farmer with his immediate needs are in the short term. This response time may be of opposing interest in the long term. It is the absolute ambiguity that we see today when we study the global system, between the necessity for economic growth and the difficulty of environmental regulation. Let us take a systems approach with the population feedback loop in the Meadowsâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; report. Diagram 6. An Example of the Systems Approach: the Population Feedback Loop

Source: authorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s construction.

If the individual food quota was to increase in a developing country, and if the birth rate was to increase, per capita wealth would fall. The feedback loop is exponential and destabilises the system. On the contrary, a relatively high death rate and a fall in the per capita food quota will reduce a given population. The systems approach allows us to understand the complexity of phenomena by integrating the socio-economic and/or environmental conditions and opportunities. The regulation of systems is fundamentally based on the interplay between different feedback loops and this arrangement is no mere coincidence. Let us now take a look at the application of systems analysis using a case study about agro-ecosystems. Let us take as an example an organic agricultural farm, both before and after the installation of biogas, in order to assess its implications on the functioning of the farm. This diagram reproduces what has been modelled for an organic farm.

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors Diagram 7. Case Study: Example of Energy Transition on the Scale of an Agricultural Farm

Source: author’s construction.

The trainees are divided into work groups. First of all, they are asked to integrate exchanges within the biological livestock and agricultural farm – financial flows, flows of materials, energy, information, etc. From the farm’s constitutive parts, the workshop must reflect upon all the possible links and build a systems’ model without biogas, and then with biogas. The results of the reflection are then summarised orally by a representative of each group. Here is a saggital model of a biological livestock-agricultural farm with the inputs on the left, the outputs including carbon and nitrogen losses with a focus on the sub-systemic interrelations in energy are shown as a dotted line, nutrients as a fragmented line and material flows as a dashed line (see diagram 8). Regarding the inputs, the biological nutrients allow the fixation of the organic matter. In the absence of biogas, energy is provided by electricity and fuel. We may note the input in labour, capital and information, but also some subsidies because organic farms are considered to be virtuous from an environmental point of view. As for the outputs, cereals, animals and by-products are put on the market – products are also processed, such as milk for example. There is the idea of food processing within the farm. Secondly, the diagram indicates the export of nutrients and waste. There are also environmental services: the farm may offer services to neighbouring farms that use fertilisers. We can also remark the pollution linked to fossil fuel emissions.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia Diagram 8. Mixed Organic Farm

Source: Siegmeier et al., 2015.

Diagram 9. Mixed Organic Farm with Biogas

Source: op. cit.

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors The authors have clearly marked the different flows – information flows in dotted lines; the nutrients with dashes, and materials with a dotted and dashed line. Let us take an example: the animals are going to supply nutrients; in exchange, what is gathered on the pastureland is used as fodder for livestock production. Finally, there is a distinction between pasture – that is to say the animals that graze on the prairie – and the fodder productions. Let us examine the second phase with the installation of biogas (see diagram 9). The agronomic effects of the installation of biogas on the farm may be conceptualised in the same saggital model. In the centre, biogas is introduced for an energy transition in the way the farm functions – disappearance of electricity. - In (1), we have the use of under-used or non-used biomass resources and waste that allow the increase in the availability of nutrients; - In (2), this allows the improvement of plant nutrition thanks to the digestates of the biogas ; - In (3), an improvement of nitrate fixation by leguminous plants; - In (4), a reduction in nitrogen losses and greenhouse emissions from the storage of manure and its spreading; - In (5), reduction of weed potential by mulching ; - And finally, in (6), an increase in crop yields and production quality. It must be observed that points (3) and (5) are not linked to biogas.

[Laurent Gazull] We are looking at a virtuous and theoretical diagram of an organic farm and the installation of biogas. The assumption is linked to the European context. The development of cover plants is interesting for the farmer, if he develops and produces energy from these plants that are mainly grown to conserve a vegetable cover on the soil. Why does he not want bare soil? The main reasons are to fight erosion (rain, wind), invasion of weeds and, in fact, to enrich the soil. In Europe, subsidies are available for the introduction of cover plants grown for energy production. The interest of having an energy production unit with cover plants associated with livestock residue is that the farmer will immediately see a positive effect on his gas or electricity bill. The introduction of biogas production is accompanied by a subsidy for the development of cover plants that will lead to a reduction in electricity expenses. In this diagram the energy flows linked to biogas are missing. It is supposed that energy consumption does not increase, however the feeding of biogas implies the input of residues – fuel consumption linked to the use of a tractor for example. The energy balance sheet would have to be calculated.

[Denis Gautier] I now wish to address the issue of methods in order to propose a sytems-oriented representation shared with the players.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Diagram 10. The Four Stages of the Protocol for the Conceptual Modelling of an Agro-Ecosystem and its Main Components

Source: Lamanda et al., 2012.

This protocol may be broken down into three parts: (i) conceptual modelling; (ii) a method that is based upon the definition of the object and comes back to it; (iii) the limits, the inputs, the outputs and the components. This division introduces new elements such as action variables, environmental dynamics and the assumptions that are retained, or not, in relation to the conceived model according to the systems analysis. - Stage 1: structural analysis – in this example, the number of inter-nodes of a plant. - Stage 2: functional analysis – biomass production. - Stage 3: dynamics – increase in the number of inter-nodes (structure) and increase in biomass (function) - Stage 4: analysis of coherence in relation to the defined problem – if the number of inter-nodes increases, is this coherent with the production of biomass on the scale of the plant for example? On the scale of the plot of land, and no longer of the plant, we would observe an absence of coherence; at the level of the plot of land, we would observe the density of plants and associate this with the biomass of each plant. - To these four stages we may add the verification of the assumption: verifying that the more inter-nodes there are, the more biomass there is, and, if this is not the case, redefining the assumption and the model.

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors The method defines the issue surrounding the subject, in our case biomass. We have already identified the components – vegetable and animal production, product processing and grazing lands –, we have related them to the inputs and outputs and to each other. Then, the last steps identify the key stages of the system’s cycle such as we addressed it in the case of the biogas system, and the monitoring of changes in crop and function. Coherence between the problem and the model must be ensured – the model must be modified if the function “more inter-nodes, more biomass” is not verified for example. Last of all, the column on the far right of the diagram –, in the framework of the limits of the studied system (the plant), we have to determine the best unit in order to discuss biomass production and its division between the different farms. The inputs will be the environment: light, water, nutrients, production of dry matter (biomass), the amount of nitrogen and water (the number of inter-nodes is a state variable. State variables identify what is linked to the structure – the number of inter-nodes, the stock of biomass (produced dry matter), nitrogen and water in the inter-nodes produced. Flow variables are linked to the function – for our purposes senescent dry matter, green dry matter, the flow of water from the soil to the plant, intercepted light, etc. As for the action variables, these may be animals destroying seeds and preventing their growing, birds that perch on the plants and break them, etc. Finally, the interactions are defined by the transfer of biomass from one inter-node to another as well as by the water factor – if there is nitrogen available but not enough water, the nitrogen cannot rise into the plant. Here is an example of the conceptual model (see diagram 11). The diagram must be read from left to right. The active environment (AE) groups together elements that influence the system, such as the climate or the system’s management method. They are characterised by state variables that define the system’s components. The system itself is defined by its limits and by a combination of “n” components of different types. Each component is characterised by the state variables (x; y; z) that connect each of these components with the active environment, with the other components and with the passive environment (with the flow and action variables). This diagram shows the assumptions according to which the elements of the active environment are linked to the components of the system (HEA), the assumptions linking all the components to each other (HC) and the assumptions linking the components of the system to elements of the passive environment (HEP). For example: - HEA1: the climate acts on component 1 via an action variable that modifies the state variable X; - HEA2: the “management method” state variable determines the flow of component 3 that is going to change the state variable Z; - HC1: Component 1 acts on component 3; its action triggers an action on component 2 that influences component 3 (indirect action between components 1 and 2 via component 3); - HC2: component 1 acts directly on component 2 that, in return, acts on component 1 (feedback loop).

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Diagram 11. An Example of a Conceptual model of an Agro-Ecosystem

Source: op. cit.

If we look again at the example of the plant, the whole system is an inter-node that produces biomass. Component 1 is the stock of water, the state variable is the amount of water. Component 2 is the stock of dry matter and the state variable is the amount of dry matter. Component 3 is the stock of nitrogen and the state variable is the amount of nitrogen. The interaction is that in order to have dry matter we need water and nitrogen. The dynamic is the continual forming of inter-nodes to produce biomass. Finally, the service may be the amount of biomass that remains on the plot to cover the soil – ecosystem service. The performances are characterised by efficiency indicators – the matter produced over the nitrogen – and effectiveness – matter produced over the available nitrogen. This diagram illustrates a conceptual model of the functioning of the decline of a type of grapevine, Syrah.

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors Diagram 12. An Application of this Conceptual Model to the Functional Analysis of the Decline of the Syrah Vine

Source: author’s construction.

The system has four components: the large roots, the grafting point, older wood, and the fruit. The state variables that characterise each of these components are in italics. The elements of the active environment are solely biophysical factors – the reference evapo-transpiration ETo, rainfall and its effects on the moisture content of the soil. The passive environment is defined by the indicators of the deterioration of the grapevines – reddening of the leaves, decline of the plant. The grey arrows correspond to the principal flows of water in quantitative terms; the black arrows correspond to the carbohydrate flows. We are now going to carry out, as an exercise, the systems analysis of the wood fuel supply sector of the city of Bamako in Mali (firewood and charcoal) that we have studied with Laurent Gazull. From this example, our goal is to construct together a conceptual model.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Diagram 13. The Bamako Sector

Source: author’s construction.

The first agents are the producers of wood and the coal merchants. They may be grouped together in “professional groups of lumbermen” or be independent or without a permit. Then, the transporters and collector-wholesalers of wood and charcoal arrive from the city of Bamako. We can also remark the local consumers, as the rural environment implies the presence of wood and coal consumers. The forestry officer must regulate cutting and sales. The wood and charcoal are transported by road to Bamako; they may be controlled by foresters – cutting permit, transport and quantity of transported wood. This is a regulatory component of the sector. Finally, the wholesaler may go to the market and sell to retailers. Day 3 will be devoted to a role-play based on this sector.

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors

The workshop must carry out, in work groups, a schematic, systems modelling of the sector. The first stage is to identify the system’s components, from the tree to the kitchen. Each group will present an exposé of its analysis.

[Laurent Gazull] Tomorrow we will work on the analysis of energy transitions based on three innovations: ethanol in Brazil (Sperling, 1987), jatropha oil in Indonesia (Suraya, 2014) and biogas in China (Zuzhang, 2013; Li et al., 2014). The texts are distributed in the workshop so that the trainees can select the case study for the next day’s session.

Day 2, Tuesday 11th July 2.2.2. Analysis of Socio-technical Change and Innovation [Laurent Gazull] We are going to proceed in two stages: the first presentation this morning will concern the analysis of change and innovation; the afternoon will be devoted to practical work based upon the texts distributed yesterday. Energy transition is socio-technical change. It assumes a simultaneous development of production/ processing technologies of energy and of the societies that use the energy produced. This transition therefore implies changes in the ways we consume. It ultimately refers to innovations that are as much technological as they are organisational. What is an innovation? How are they conceived and how are they developed? Innovation was defined by the American economist Schumpeter as an invention that has found a monetary market (Schumpeter, 1934). Since then, the definition has changed somewhat: we speak about something new being integrated into a functional, structured, organised whole. Innovation corresponds both to processes (invention, creation, learning, diffusion) and their result. Schumpeter distinguishes five processes that may lead to innovation: - The fabrication of new goods; - A need for new production methods; - A new market – a same product is used on another market;

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia - The discovery and use of new raw materials – market for renewable goods; - New ways of working – telework. The bioenergy domain brings together all these categories of innovation: new methods of production and labour, new raw materials and new outlets. We can distinguish two types of innovation: - Incremental innovations. They are simply an improvement of something that already exists that does not turn the whole environment upside down – case of biodiesel. - Radical/ground-breaking innovation – case of the smartphone, the chip card or even coffee capsules that lead consumers to buy a new machine and obliges them to buy in a specialised shop. In the world of bio energies, the innovations linked to ethanol and pellets (wood pellets) are more radical than diesel. Firstly, it is impossible to run a traditional car on ethanol alone; an appropriate engine is necessary. In Brazil, the success of the ethanol policy is linked to the creation of ethanol production chains, but also to adapted cars. Secondly, ethanol is less concentrated in energy than petrol. This has led Brazil to introduce service stations with ethanol pumps throughout the country. Pellets concentrate energy in a small element, which is easily transportable. Their introduction has led to no longer using chimneys or open hearths – some households are automatically heated as if by a fuel stove. Upstream, the pellet production chain is a new concept for foresters. Finally, transport is easy and distribution is on a worldwide scale. The analysis of innovation is difficult and non-standardised; there is no real normalised method because it depends on the definition we give to the type of innovation in question. Schumpeter sees innovation through the prism of the innovators, the entrepreneurs who have the ability to link a market to a particular technology. The American sociologist and statistician Rogers speaks about innovation as an individual phenomenon, as a consumers’ choice; innovation is thus the result of a decision and an adoption (Rogers, 1962). From the 1970s, sociologists got hold of the process: innovation is the result of a network of players who exchange information and build a form of common interest for change – players in interaction and a system. The first decade of this millennium witnessed several development attempts aiming to explain and even to carry out technological change – the theory of innovation niches took a particular interest in renewable energies. Finally, over the last twenty years, economists – institutional economics trend – have been attempting to incorporate institutional elements into the economic analysis of technical change and have conceptualised the notion of “innovation systems”. These are groups of economic agents – States, institutions, companies, individuals, etc. – that interact in networks in order to develop a structure and functions with the aim of encouraging innovation. Let us now examine three main tools of innovation analysis: - The diffusion of innovations developed by Rogers;

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors - Socio-technical analysis; how to understand innovation as a sociological phenomenon?; - Innovation as a result of a system of innovation. Today’s practical work is based upon the framework of this analysis. Rogers theorised the diffusion phenomenon, how does an innovation come to light in a society and how is it then adopted by the majority? He places himself in the position of the final consumer, of the user, who is part of a communication network. The user becomes aware of an invention in function of his personality, his degree of openness to the outside world, but also in function of his socio-economic characteristics. The invention is then assessed, analysed in function of its different characteristics: what is the comparative advantage of using it compared to what already exists? Is it compatible with my way of life or will I use it? Is it complex? Graph 14. The Diffusion of Innovations

Source: Rogers, 1962.

For Rogers, every innovation process follows this curve. At the beginning of the innovation, there is a group of individuals, “the pioneers”, who accept the risk, even if the phenomenon is not generalised.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia These are not Schumpeter’s entrepreneurs, but consumers who like new ideas. Few in numbers, they are going to show others the interest of the innovation. The innovators are individuals who may react rapidly and increase the number of those who adopt the innovation. Once the process has begun, the early or late majority of the population adopt the invention. Rogers theorised the number in a given population: pioneers (3%), innovators (13%), the early and late majority (68%) and the latecomers. A second vision of innovation was developed in the 1980s by the French sociologists Michel Callon, Bruno Latour and Madeleine Akrich, who established the Chair of Sociology and Innovation at the Ecole des Mines de Paris – player-network theory or translation sociology (Callon, 1999). The innovation approach is based upon the art of “interessement”. The process creates unprecedented links between the players: humans and objects. Recruitment is done via spokespersons whose goal is to create links between communities of players. Two principal roles are put forward: - Favouring communication, exchange of information between players; - Demonstrating the interest of the group that the players represent. Another role is to “mobilise allies”, that is to say encourage the different players to act in the common interest of the sector. This network of players and technology is called “environment”. This theory argues that the environment is not exterior to the innovation: the technology and the players that use it create their own environment.

Laurent Gazull illustrates this argument by presenting a publication by Madeleine Akrich that talks about the history of an innovation linked to bio energies in Nicaragua – fabrication of fuel briquettes from cotton stalks to replace charcoal and cooking wood (Akrick, 1989). The case study demonstrates that innovation is a process of the co-adaptation of practice and technology and that the profitability of an invention is difficult to calculate – the success of an innovation implies its profitability and it is not because an invention is a priori economically viable that it will produce an innovation. In the first decade of this millennium, Rip, Kemp and Geels (Rip and Kemp, 1998; Geels, 2002) put forward the framework for multi-level analysis. This theory explains how innovation is introduced into a “socio-technical regime” - our consumer behaviours, which associate social rules and a technology, are factors in the development of society.

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors Diagram 14. Socio-technical Change according to the Multi-level Perspective

Source: Geels, 2002.

In parallel with or within the socio-regime, inventions are developed in technological niches – companies, research centres, etc. – where they are tested and developed in order to become potential innovations. An invention is a technological novelty and becomes an innovation once diffused. The niches and the regime are subject to a global environment referred to as “landscape”. When the general environment puts pressure on the socio-technical regime, new windows of opportunity open up: the inventions that are at the pre-innovation stage become innovations, they replace or modify the socio-technical regime. Typically, they involve commitments made at the Conference of Paris in 2015 (COP21) and even oil supply difficulties for some countries present factors of opportunity for all the innovations in the domain of renewable energies. This diagram has been used in many publications to explain energy transition; one main criticism is that changes in socio-technical regimes and innovations are only possible when there is a destabilisation in the outside environment. The innovation system, concept and tool, was developed in the first decade of this millennium by economists who were not satisfied with Rogers’ theory, and even less with Schumpeter’s.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Diagram 15. The Breaking Down of an Innovation System and its Analytical Framework

Source: Bergek et al, 2008.

This entails introducing institutional elements into the economic analysis of change. Innovation is a collective process stemming from a network of players, sub-networks, markets and inter-connected institutions. Just like any other system, the system of innovation has a structure and way of func tioning whose main goal is to encourage the innovation process, to develop it and diffuse it. This system has a classical structure – players form networks and institutions – but the functionalities of the system are set down. - (1) Development of knowledge and circulation of information among the players, the institutions and different networks – particularly from research institutions to users or networks of entrepreneurs. - (2) Financial mechanisms favour above all the formation of the market – via subsidies, taxes, etc. - (3) Giving legitimacy to the innovation within society. - (4) Mobilisation of financial resources – one of the roles of the innovation system is to circulate capital, information resources, material, etc., so that all resources are easily mobilised. - (5) Influencing research management – lobbying research institutions and States in order to orientate research towards specific products. - (6) Favour experimentation in companies.

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors - (7) Economic externality. The invention itself and its market are not enough; there must be positive external effects on other sectors and other markets – financial or environmental externalities. First of all, analysis focuses on the structure of the system of information, that is to say identifying the players, the institutions, the networks etc. that are interested in, or working on, an innovation. Then questions are raised concerning the functions: are all the functions being satisfied? What are the factors that lead to development of knowledge and the mobilisation of resources? Finally, we have to identify the blocking and /or inducement mechanisms on the different functions. This diagram represents the seven functions framed by the factors that favour or block them. Diagram 16. Links between the Blocking/Incitation Mechanism in the Case of Renewable Energies in Sweden

Source Johnson and Jacobsson, 2000.

The functions of knowledge development are supported by government research and development programmes but they may be blocked by research networks that are not sufficiently developed. Efforts are made for market formation: subsidies, measures concerning prices, creation of public buyers and a general awareness of the environment are all favourable factors. We can also remark a number of blocking mechanisms: absence of long-term government vision or/and consumer competency, characteristics of the new technologies that will hinder the formation of the market. The diagram also emphasises the lack of actions that will lead to a legitimacy of the solutions, in order to create entrepreuneurial experimentation and develop positive externalities.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia This diagram is interesting because it presents a reading grid for innovations and innovative processes.

By way of an example, Laurent Gazull retraces the history of solar panels developed in Germany (Bergek et al., 2008). The afternoon is devoted to practical work using the texts distributed the previous day describing the development of an innovation in the world of bio-energies (Jatropha in Indonesia, ethanol in Brazil and biogas in China); the analysis of the innovations must follow the reading grid presented (cf. the seven functionalities of a system of innovation). The work groups focus on the blocking points and facilitation then suggest strategies of interaction with all the trainers and trainees.

Day 3, Wednesday 12th July The morning is devoted to the Djolibois role play developed by the CIRAD in Mali and then implemented in order to make the players involved in supplying wood fuel to the city of Bamako aware of the lack of coordination and information within the sector (cf. Day 1). The role-play has been conceived and used as (i) a research and diagnostic tool used to identify the strategies of players within the sector, (ii) a decision-making aid tool that allows us to simulate various management strategies and (iii) a tool for providing information to players in the sector about (new) management rules decreed by the administration.

Day 4, Thursday 13th July 2.2.3. Foresight: Method, Tools [Hélène Dessard] We are going to take a look at some aspects regarding foresight and its methods. This method is based both upon the systems analysis we saw with Denis Gautier and the analysis of systems of innovation presented by Laurent Gazull. It allows us explore the transition of complex systems in the long term. Among the many definitions of foresight, we will focus on two: (i) foresight is a method of investigation of the future via the analysis of the mechanisms of functioning of a society and the development processes that are inherent to these mechanisms; (ii) it involves (pre-active and proactive) anticipation in order to clarify present actions in the light of possible and desirable futures.

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors Diagram 17. Basic Concepts of the Foresight Method. The Example of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Source: MEA, 2005.

Let us take the example of Millennium Ecosystems Assessment (MEA) through the application of the scenarios method (MEA, 2005). Four plausible scenarios explore the future of ecosystems and the impact of their evolution on human well being over the next fifty years and beyond. These scenarios have been constructed using the formulation of assumptions about the forces, and their interactions, that lie beneath the changes in ecosystems. They may be summarised by two main structuring axes, the first corresponds to a globalisation/regionalisation gradient. The other axis positions two other different approaches for the management of ecosystems: the problems are recognised and consequently, measures are taken reactively; the management of ecosystems is proactive and deliberately aims to preserve, in the long term, the services provided by ecosystems. The Global Orchestration (GO) scenario is characterised by a high level of globalisation, rapid economic growth, and also investment policies in public assets. On the contrary, the Adapting Mosaic (AM) scenario is based upon lower levels of integration of international economies and GDP growth; focus is given to local development in relation to international exchanges. The attitude is proactive vis-à-vis environmental problems thanks to strengthened local institutions. The Techno Garden (TG) scenario proposes the vision of a world that is highly integrated at an international level, with high economic growth, and supported by the global development of cutting-edge environmental technologies and ecological engineering. Finally, the Order by Strength (OS) scenario

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia defines a world that is above all concerned with security problems, confined to regional markets and a reactive management of ecosystems – through the creation of protected areas for example. These scenarios constitute four plausible exploratory scenarios that contain avenues for reflection in order to allow public and private decision makers to develop an action and management plan for ecosystems in a context of uncertainties. It was above all a question of making the decision makers aware of the importance of the role of biodiversity in economic development and in the development of human well-being and avoiding irreversibility by provoking a change in attitude: from reactivity to proactivity. It is to Özbekhan that we owe the scenarios method, which was greatly developed in France in the 1970-1980s to reflect upon territorial development and concepts of “pre-activeness” – preparing for foreseeable changes – and pro-activeness – acting so as to provoke desired changes (Shearer, 2005). The foresight attitude aims to control expected change (being pre-active) and provoke the desired change (proactive). Methods of foresight are not limited to scenarios, although these are currently the most widely used methods – we may consult Popper (2008) for a review. In brief, foresight studies have different objectives: analysing in depth the reality that we intend to improve; identifying the challenges; developing a shared vision (emergence of a consensus); reacting to the changes before they impose their own logic; anticipating changes by being “proactive”; collectively developing discourse about the future (social learning); orientating public policies and planning processes (decision-making help tool). One first, fundamental distinction opposes exploratory foresight and normative foresight (see table 2). In the first case, we begin in the present in order to explore the assumptions about long-term changes and their consequences. In the second case, on the contrary, we construct contrasted visions of the future and then calculate the conditions for their actually happening. Within these two large categories, some finer distinction leads us to oppose: - within the exploratory foresight method, a “heavy trend” (close to forecasting) and “breakdown” and “weak signal” foresight; - within the normative foresight method, a foresight focusing on the “construction of contrasting visions of the future” and a strategic forecasting that entails defining the conditions and possibilities of the realisation of an objective (or scenario) that was considered to be a priori desirable (“backcasting” method). The scenario method seeks to highlight on the one hand the strong trends, and on the other hand, the factors of change that allow us to spot possible transformations towards new states. More often than not, foresight research that is based on the scenarios method determines a trend-based scenario that reflects the transformations of the system in the absence of any determining intervention by the players, and one or several contrasted scenarios based on some action assumptions, transformation of behaviours or big changes in the political and economic environment. We will only give details of the scenarios method given that the different tools may also be used to construct the others (Godet, 2007) (see diagram 18).

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors Table 2. Types of Foresight

Source: Les cahiers du développement durable en Île-de-France, 2013.

Diagram 18. The construction of scenarios

Source: trainers’ construction.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia The scenarios method is the most widely used, notably when we are faced with a high level of uncertainty and low controllability. A scenario is a coherent narrative that describes a future situation, an anticipation of a specific subject. This approach allows us to mobilise a set of players, identify the challenges and uncertainties, make them understandable and determine the stages of strategic planning. Two types of method are considered: exploratory – what would happen if such an event occurred? – or normative – in this case we answer the question “how”? Table 3. Stages in the Construction of Scenarios Scenarios

Exploratory (Forecasting)

Normative (Backcasting)

Method

Possible futures Point of departure : present

Desired futures How to attain them (theory of change) Point of departure: future

Objective

Exploratory, knowledge, learning

Goal, target function, development of a strategy

Implementation

Study of opportunities and incertitudes, possible actions and test of decisionmaking processes

Identification of intermediate goals and possible paths (backcasting)

Central question

What is happening ? What would happen if?

How ?

Probabilise

Possibly

Indirectly to assess a plan

Source: Godet, 2007.

The scenarios respond to five different stages of construction. - Establishment of a diagnostic of the studied system: subject and timeline of the study; precise expectations, relevance of the method; institutions and people involved and their roles; project’s calendar, means. - Dynamic representation of complex system: definition of the variables (factors and players; regrouping of variables as components (sub-systems). - Construction of a reference framework, a foresight base. We distinguish the variables that are internal to the system from the external variables that will make the system develop. For each of these variables, we define trends using the past in order to understand their natural development, without the intervention of any player for example. New facts are examined, even if they are not visible for these variables. We can imagine breakdowns, changes in direction. The uncertainties that weigh on the variables are defined. The analysis focuses on the objectives and interests of the players as well as on the power relationships that are established between them.

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors - Construction of scenarios. Among the different practicable methods, morphological analysis for example consists in emitting combinations of assumptions about each of the variables. - Comparison of scenarios, possibly including a quantified evaluation. The two essential tools of construction are the matrix approach and morphological analysis (Godet, 2007): the latter, which is widely used, consists in combining the variables of the different components in the systems studied and ordering the major uncertainties, while taking into account the compatibilities between assumptions made about the variables and justifying the conjunctions thus achieved. A study commissioned by the French Ministry of Agriculture, in 2010, thus used this tool to explore the future of French agriculture in the face of energy transition. Table 4. Scenarios: Links between Agriculture and Energy in France Scenario 1 Territorialisation and restraint to combat the crisis

Scenario 2 Dual agriculture and energy realism

Scenario 3 Agriculture-health without any strong energy constraint

Scenario 4 Ecological agriculture and energy mastery

Global context

Energy and climate crises Falling back of exchanges Sustained increase in oil prices

Conventional growth and regulation by the market High volatility and upward trend in oil prices

Defensive strategies, competitive specialisations Stabilisation of oil price

Increased international cooperation High carbon price

Transport and organisation of sectors

Re-localisation at the regional level Rebalancing of production basins

Specialisation of territories and increase in disparities Increase in flows

Growth of innovation in transport Great weight from downstream on the sectors

Re-centring on Europe and modal shift Ecological modernisation of sectors

Public policies

Big rise in regional power Mosaic of environmental, agricultural and energy policies

Withdrawal of public action Big drop in agricultural aid but remuneration of environmental services

Metropolisation and moderate efforts in the domain of energy and climate Ambitious food health policy

High priority to the environment Integrated and ambitious public poliicy

Farmers and society

Diversification and multi-functionality Attachment to the territory, local development

Deinstitutionalisation of the agricultural sector Dualisation

Focus on nutritionhealth challenges Restructuring and productivity

Large environmental consensus Mobilisation of farmers, consumers, and public authorities

Source: Prospective Agriculture Énergie 2030, 2010.

This study is based upon an exploratory foresight method whose objective was to understand the developments of French farms faced with the challenge of energy transition.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Interest in this question was motivated by the major role fossil fuels play in the profitability mechanisms of French agricultural farms. The technical itineraries of these agricultural farms lead to carbon storage, and it was interesting to establish an energy balance sheet in the framework of climate change. The question was also to ask ourselves how we could reduce fossil fuel consumption and turn this agricultural sector into a producer of bioenergy. The main originality of the study was to identify direct energy consumption – fuel, gas, electricity – and indirect consumption – transport, fabrication of inputs. Each scenario has been named and represents a possible development of the French agricultural system in the face of the coming energy crisis and climate change. The first component corresponds to the “global context”, that is to say the globalised environment of which French agriculture is part –it is often the case of variables over which the players in the considered system have little influence. The three other components describe the system’s intervention context on which we can act. Thus, these scenarios allow us to judge room for manoeuvre in order to obtain the best energy balance sheets and identify the levers that public action might be able to set in motion.

[Laurent Gazull] French agriculture is faced with great uncertainties, whether it be a question of the intensive agricultural model or in relation to European financing. It must meet new public health, organic or energy demands. Given these demands and development trends, four plausible scenarios for French agriculture were established for the 2030 timeline. This entails raising questions about its possible developments; each scenario follows a logic and a coherence in order to attempt to rise to current challenges. From this scenario, it is possible to define public policies or to carry out technical and economic studies to assess the cost of environmental, social and financial transition. This logic-building exercise, in function of the different components, will be at the heart of tomorrow morning’s group work.

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors

Day 5, Friday 14th July The workshop is asked to imagine the energy future of villages according to two case studies.

Table 5. Construction of Exploratory Scenarios Territory

Type Madagascar

Type Vietnam

Initial situation A city WITH electricity

Villages WITHOUT electricity

Villages WITH electricity

- Describe the territorial system - Forecast referential - Key variables - Assumptions to be combined - Scenarios (at least 2) Source: trainersâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; construction.

The first system is composed of a central city that is supplied in electricity from a coal or fuel power plant. Around the city, the villages are not connected to the electricity network and depend above all on wood fuel. The villagers use charcoal or agricultural residues for cooking. In some villages, we can remark the presence of solar panels. In this rural world, small companies produce their own electricity from power generators. The natural resources the territory has at its disposal are water, sun, wood, agricultural and livestock. This situation is typical of many developing countries. In the second system, the central city is also supplied in electricity from a coal or fuel power plant. However, an electricity network supplies the surrounding villages. The agricultural activities are comparable and some small agro-food companies are connected to the network. However, wood or charcoal is still used for cooking. This situation is typical of emerging or developing countries.

The afternoon is devoted to the preparation of the presentation of a summary of the weekâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s work that will be presented in Day 6â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s plenary session.

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Select bibliography Akrich, M. (1989), « La construction d’un système sociotechnique : esquisse pour une anthropologie des techniques ». Anthropologie et sociétés, Québec : département d’Anthropologie, Faculté des sciences sociales, Université Laval. Akrich, M, M. Callon and B. Latour (ed.) (2006), Sociologie de la traduction : textes fondateurs, Paris, Mines ParisTech, les Presses, « Sciences sociales », Textes rassemblés par le Centre de sociologie de l’innovation, laboratoire de sociologie de Mines ParisTech. Bergek, A., S. Jacobsson, B. Carlsson, S. Lindmark, and A. Rickne (2008), "Analyzing the Functional Dynamics of Technological Innovation Systems: A Scheme of Analysis", Research Policy, 37, pp. 407-429. Bergek, A., M. Hekkert, et S. Jacobsson (2008), “Functions in Innovation Systems: A Framework for Analysing Energy System Dynamics and Identifying Goals for System-Building Activities by Entrepreneurs and Policy Makers”. Innovation for a Low Carbon Economy: Economic, Institutional and Management Approaches, 79. Callon, M. (1999), “Actor-network theory: the market test”. In: Law, J. et J. Hassard, Actor Network Theory and After. Blackwell Publishers, Oxford, pp. 181-195. Geels, F. W. (2002), "Technological Transitions as Evolutionary Reconfiguration Processes: a MultiLevel Perspective and a Case-Study", Research Policy, 31(8-9), pp. 1257-1274. https://doi.org/10.1016/ S0048-7333(02)00062-8. Godet, M. (2007), Manuel de prospective stratégique, Une indiscipline intellectuelle, tome 1-3, édition Dunod. Johnson, A., and S. Jacobsson (2000), "Inducement and Blocking Mechanisms in the Development of a New Industry: the Case of Renewable Energy Technology in Sweden", In R. Coombs, K. Green, A. Richards, & V. Walsh (Eds.), Technology and the Market, Demand, Users and Innovation. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd. Meadows, D, D. Meadows, J. Randers and W. W. Behrens (1972), "The Limits to Growth", Universe Books. (ISBN 978-0-4510-9835-1) Lamanda, N., S. Roux, S. Delmotte, A. Merot, B. Rapidel, M. Adam and J. Wery, J. (2012), "A Protocol for the Conceptualisation of an Agro-Ecosystem to Guide Data Acquisition and Analysis and Expert Knowledge Integration", European Journal of Agronomy, 38. Les cahiers du développement durable en Île-de-France (2013), La prospective appliquée aux projets territoriaux de développement durable, n°10. Li, J., B. Bluemling, A. P. J. Mol and T. Herzfeld (2014), "Stagnating Jatropha Biofuel Development in Southwest China: An Institutional Approach", Sustainability, 6, pp. 3192-3212. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) (2005), Scenarios, Washington D.C., Island Pres.

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors Popper, R. (2008), "Foresight Methodology", The Handbook of Technology Foresight, pp. 44-88. Prospective Agriculture Énergie 2030 (2010), L’agriculture face aux défis énergétiques – Centre d’études et de prospective. Rogers, E. M. (1962), Diffusion of Innovations, New York: Free Press of Glencoe. Rip, A., and R. Kemp (1998), Technological Change. In S. Rayner et E. L. Malone (Eds.), Human Choice and Climate Change, vol. 2, Columbus, OH: Battelle Press. Schumpeter, J. A. (1934), "The Nature and Necessity of a Price System", in Harris, Seymour E., Bernstein, Edward M., Economic Reconstruction, New York, London: McGraw-Hill Shearer, A. W. (2005), "Approaching Scenario-Based Studies: Three Perceptions about the Future and Considerations for Landscape Planning". Environment and planning B: Planning and Design 32.1: pp. 67-87. Siegmeier, T, B. Blumenstein and D. Möller (2015), “Farm Biogas Production in Organic Agriculture: System Implications”, Agricultural Systems, Volume 139, October. Sperling, D. (1987), Brazil, Ethanol and the Process of System Change, Energy, Vol. 12, N°1, Great Britain. Suraya, A. A. (2014), "Engineering the Jatropha Hype in Indonesia", Sustainability, 6, pp. 1686-1704. Zuzhang, X (2013), Domestic Biogas in a Changing China: Can Biogas Still Meet the Energy Needs of China’s Rural Households? International Institute for Environment and Development, London.

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List of trainees Name

Establishment

Field/research discipline

Research topic

Chafiaa Djouadi

Expert Arab Bank of the African Development (BADEA) Technical advisor for the Finance Ministry Minister’s office/ Monitoring and assessment of projects unit, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo

Sustainable development

Development models in poor countries

chafiaa.djouadi@ gmail.com

Rakotoarisoa Fanomezana Herijaniaina

Planète-Urgence Madagascar

Agronomy, forestry

herijaniainarakotoarisoa@yahoo.fr

Hoàng Anh Vũ

Quảng Bình University

Environmental sciences

Climate change, bioenergy

vuhoang304@ gmail.com

Hứa Minh Trọng

Department of Natural Resources and the Environment

Environment

Water resources, climate change

minhtrongbl@ gmail.com

Randriamanan tena Lovasoa

In charge of monitoring and assessment/Deputy coordinator of the ARINA project

Wood energy sector

lovasoa.rl@gmail. com

Nguyen Binh Duong

École Supérieure of Foreign Trade

Economics

Regional economics

nguyenbinhduong.ftu@gmail. com

Nguyen Thu Huyen

University of Natural Resources and the Environment

Technologies for the processing of solid waste

huyen.mt.gtvt@ gmail.com

Nguyen Duy Tam

Hồ Chí Minh City University of Economics

Economics, Society and humanity

Green growth and sustainable development

nguyenduytam@ ueh.edu.vn

Nguyễn Hoàng Mỹ Phương

Independent researcher

Economics, agriculture, economic anthropology

Commodity Markets and Risk Socialization: A Case Study of Southern Vietnamese Marketplaces

menfuong@gmail. com

Nguyễn Ngọc Ánh

Hà Nội University of Natural Resources and the Environment

Environment, climate change, energy

Climate change and energy solutions

ngocanh40amt@ gmail.com

nthmi@ctu.edu.vn

nguyenhue1684@ gmail.com

Nguyễn Thị Hà Mi

University of Cần Thơ

Renewable energy use

Renewable energy and sustainable development, commune of Thach Thoi, Vĩnh Thạnh district, Cần Thơ

Nguyễn Thị Huế

Centre for Urban Research

Management of natural resources and the environment

Sustainable urban development

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Tools of Analysis for Biomass Energy Sectors Name

Establishment

Field/research discipline

Research topic

Nguyễn Thị Lan Anh

University of Thái Nguyên

Development economics, management

Economic development of households in disadvantaged regions

ctminhanh@gmail. com

Nguyễn Thị Thân

International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT)

Tele-detection and geographical information systems

Predictive model for land occupation, assessment of vulnerability to climate change

nguyenthan. dhqg@gmail.com

Nguyễn Thị Yến

Thái Nguyên University of Agriculture and Forestry

Development economics

Development of rural agricultural and poverty

Nguyenyen linh03@yahoo.com

Phạm Thị Ngọc Sượng

Open University - Hồ Chí Minh City

Agricultural economics and rural development

Agricultural economics

suong.ptn@ ou.edu.vn

Ching Sreytouch

Royal School of Solicitors, Cambodia

Property law and family law

Real-estate financing

chingsreytouch@ yahoo.com

Thái Thành Dư

University of Cần Thơ

Development, sustainable energy

Production of biogas, commune of Ngã Bảy, Hậu Giang

dum3315002@ gstudent.ctu. edu.vn

Truong An Ha

Hà Nội University of Science and Technology

Renewable energy

Bioenergy

truonganha87@ gmail.com

Võ Hữu Hòa

Duy Tân University, Đà Nẵng

Rural geography

Agricultural development

vohoadl@gmail. com

Võ Thị Diệu Thảo

Okayama University, Huế

Pedology

Soil nutrition for the development of medicinal plants in zones suffering from erosion

hoahuongduong172@gmail. com

Võ Thị Ngọc Tú

Hải Âu Centre of Technological and Environmental Research, Hồ Chí Minh City

Environmental technology

Bioenergy

ngoctuvo.dhnn@ gmail.com

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2.3. Training for Field Inquiries. Biogas Programmes in the rural Communes of the Rural District of Hoà Vang, Đà Nẵng Province Pierre-Yves Le Meur – IRD, Emmanuel Pannier – contract researcher CNRS, Olivier Tessier – EFEO

(Transcript) Day 1, Monday 11th July [Olivier Tessier] This first morning will be devoted to a theoretical presentation, which is rather methodological, about field inquiries; then in the afternoon, we will work in sub-groups in order to prepare an interview grid that will guide us for the starting up of our field inquiry. Introduction of the trainers and trainees (see list of trainees included at the end of chapter and biographies)

2.3.1. The Research Cycle: the Stages of a Qualitative Study based on Field Inquiries [Emmanuel Pannier] I am going to begin by presenting the research cycle that corresponds to the different stages and operations to be carried out in order to conduct a study based upon field inquiries.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia My presentation focuses on the aspects that are specific to qualitative studies in socio-anthropology, but the method is generally applied to social science research. I also refer you to the reading text by Jean-Pierre Olivier de Sardan: “La politique de terrain” (2008) that was distributed prior to the workshop. We will first attempt to take a look at together, throughout the week, the different stages of research. - Defining the research topic, developing a research issue and reflecting on the precise subject that the inquiry will focus upon. - Formulating the research subject. - Defining the research protocol; which method to be followed in order to conduct the research and answer the questions raised? - Producing data –namely the moment of field inquiries. - Processing and interpreting data. - Presenting the results, in the form of a written scientific text or an exposé. This presentation is chronological but, in practice, the stages overlap each other. The research subject is constantly evolving during the interactions between these different operations and coming and going between the office and the field, between observations and interpretations, between assumptions and empirical data. In concrete terms, group meetings will be held in the evenings, when you return from the field, in order to discuss the data gathered in the villages and initiate the dynamic of progressively constructing the research subject. Let us first of all specify a few terms in order to establish a common base for discussion.

Approach The approach is the specific way of understanding the observed reality. It is a subjective choice that we must be aware of. As if we were placing “glasses” - a filter – in front of our eyes: we cannot understand directly a reality without a specific perspective, but we may choose and change the perspective we adopt.

Method The method is a set of operations, pathways followed and resources mobilised in order to carry out research. The method concerns as much the production of data as their processing – we speak for example about the qualitative, quantitative, inductive and deductive methods, etc.

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Methodological Tools Methodological tools are specific techniques used to produce data; it is therefore not a global strategy that is adopted during the research. The interviews and observations, for example, do not belong to the field of method; they are methodological tools that are implemented in a more general process (method). In summary, we draw a distinction between the interview, the observation and the questionnaires as data production tools and the method as a set of tools that are mobilised, assembled and combined to conduct the research.

Research Issue and Subject of Research There is a dialogue between the research subject and the research issue throughout the research. I am going to give some advice for how to begin to conceive a research issue and then describe in more detail what a research subject consists of. Firstly, the research issue stems from a research topic or a general question – for example, how does energy transition in Việt Nam manifest itself? What are its challenges, jurisdictions, objectives and purposes? Then, this initial question is broken down into a set of questions concerning the subject, but linked to a scientific (theories and past research into the subject), cultural (the society within which we are addressing the subject) and empirical (the places and people concerned by the subject) context. Finally, a first research issue develops through the linking of the initial question to the empirical, cultural and scientific contexts within which it is situated. The research issue may be constructed from two questions: what do we know? What do we not know? “What we know” consists in gathering information about the research topic in function of the initial question. At this level, two principal sources of information may be identified concerning the general context and past research into a similar subject. The context may be apprehended at three different levels. - The general context: cultural, economic, political and social environment in which the subject lies. If the general topic is energy transition in Việt Nam, we will determine in which broader context (climate change for example) the subject may be placed. - The scientific or theoretical context is related to different previously conducted research into a topic that is comparable to yours, as well as to the schools of thought and methodological methods used. - The empirical context, that is to say the field in which the study is conducted: concrete places, populations, natural environment, and timescales. It is important to place your research in relation to what has already been produced and theorized in order to not lose too much time “discovering” what has already been brought to light. This operation also allows us to identify the theoretical – or conceptual – frameworks that may be mobilised to observe the reality as well as those that we wish to criticise.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Box 1

Formulation of a problematic -

The general theme and context (social, political, economic, cultural, etc.) in which the subject is placed.

The general questioning: questioning about a given subject in a specific context;

What led you to deal with this subject?

Temporal and spatial framework.

Other research linked to the subject, theories and concepts in relation to the theme. Every theory is based upon a coherent assembly of concepts specific to the domain.

- The question. It involves putting the problem in concrete terms in the form of a clear and precise question. A research problem may lead to a multitude of research questions; well-constructed research does not directly address only one question at a time. -

The hypotheses – the presumed answers to the questions raised.

The method. In the formulation of the research issue, it is important to indicate the operations involved in the research and test hypotheses.

Sources : authors’ construction ; Tremblay et Perrier (2006).

The research subject is the researcher’s own construction. Let me refer you to the work by Berger and Luckmann (1966): reality does not exist per se; it is a social and intellectual construction. The first point is to measure the feasibility and relevance of the subject according to the empirical reality. This is done by the conducting of a pre-field phase. The objective is to assess the relevance of the research subject in relation to reality. This entails adopting an open attitude in order not to be restrained, from the outset of the research cycle, in an ideological and methodological straitjacket. At the end of this phase, it is necessary to be able to question the initial hypotheses, and even the research subject. The pre-field phase shows that certain questions and hypotheses were not relevant or useful for understanding the research subject and new questions then emerge. There are no precise rules for assessing the relevance of such or such a question, this depends upon the researcher’s “knowhow” and the rigour with which the research issue was developed and the pre-survey phase carried out. The scientific relevance of the research subject is however linked to certain requirements of socio-anthropological practice: - The contextualisation of social groups and practices: placing social facts and social behaviour in their right place in the period and social framework where they are observed and studied. The method thus consists in interpreting individual practices by relating them to their social and historical conditions of possibility and sequence; - The construction stage of the subject should refer to the identification and taking into account of the categories of thought. It is necessary to avoid any ethno-centrist ideology by bearing

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Training for Field Inquiries in mind that the thought categories of the studied group (emic) are potentially different from ours (etic). This also involves assessing the concrete feasibility of the study. This assessment is dependent on the major constraints that affect the research process, for example available time, financial means, number of surveyors, access conditions to the field and sources. Let us examine these last two points. Defining the subject involves establishing a prospective inventory of available sources. All research and work of scientific development is based upon the exploitation of raw materials, primary and secondary data, and written and oral sources. By their very nature, the sources and fields that may be used are extremely varied according to the disciplinary field in general and the research subject in particular. Two types of source may be differentiated: - For pre-existing sources (generally written or fixed sources – films, photographs, audio-visual recordings), we should ask questions about their availability, accessibility and volume. For example, the bank of village archives produced during the colonial period in Việt Nam is so vast that it would be unrealistic to embark upon an exhaustive processing of it. The selection of a fraction of the archives is made on the basis of geographical, chronological and thematic criteria, etc. - For original sources – created by the researcher through interviews, observations, systematic surveys, the compilation of dispersed data series, photographs, cartography, etc. – it is necessary to raise questions about the conditions and possibilities of their production. This effective limit is fixed by our production capacity and area of freedom linked to the material – institutional, political and social environment.

Regarding the stages of a qualitative study based on field inquiries, the reader is also referred to the 2014 edition of the JTD – notably concerning questions related to the mastery of time and the “immersion in reality” dimension (Le Meur et al., 2015).

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Viáť&#x2021;t Nam and in Southeast Asia Diagram 19. Construction of the Research Subject

Source: authorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s construction; Culas, Tessier (2009).

This diagram refers to the act of going back and forth that lays the ground for the construction of a research subject. A strong link exists between the initial topic, the issues raised, assumptions and research axes. This afternoon, we will work in sub-groups on the identification of research axes. One of the methods may be to associate them to some hypotheses. In socio-anthropology, it is important not to forget that the method is always unique. The researcher develops it, invents it and creates it in function of the field; but this is a reasoned process and the researcher must also be able to justify the chosen method. The interest of field inquiries is to bring to the forefront social processes and mechanisms and not only correlations between variables. They aim to explain how a social phenomenon takes place and show, as well as possible and without ever exhausting all the factors at work, why these phenomena manifest themselves in the way do. Although these inquiries may sometimes lead to adapted policy proposals, they aim in all cases to propose reflections and interpretations that are anchored in empirical reality, that is to say in the acts, practices and behaviours as well as in the judgements and representations of the social players.

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Training for Field Inquiries Diagram 20. Data Production

Source: authorâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s construction; Olivier de Sardan (2008).

For field inquiries, when adopting a qualitative method, four tools (or techniques) for data production are available: observation (participative), interviews, survey processes and written sources (Olivier de Sardan, op. cit).

For methodological guidelines concerning quantitative and qualitative approaches, we recommend that you read the JTD 2011 publication (Razafindrakoto et al., 2011).

Let us see in detail the question of interviews, a tool that we are going to focus on during our field inquiry.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Table 6. Discussions, Interviews and Questionnaire: A Question of Degree

Source: author’s construction.

There are three types of interview: structured, semi-structured and open-ended. The difference lies in to what extent the inquirer directs the conversation. The interview is either totally structured, or the inquirer places himself in the register of an open-ended conversation. For our pre-field stage, we will use the semi-structured interview: the topics and questions are defined, but we remain open to other subjects that the respondents may raise. An interview is not a questionnaire, the form and objectives differ. - The questionnaire is a list of precise questions that are always asked in the same order to all the responders; the number of possible answers is limited. - In an interview the questions are always more flexible, more open; we do not expect precise answers. They are not asked in a pre-defined order: the questions are asked in function of (and in reaction to) what the person says. Another fundamental element of the interviews is to know how to go from “the researcher’s question” to “the question asked to the surveyed individual”. This is achieved through a task of reformulating and breaking down into concrete questions that make sense to the people surveyed. Another important element: the interview outline – the list of questions to be asked, organised in themes – must be understood as a constantly evolving “check-list”. The challenge is therefore to translate and reformulate the themes, subjects and questioning that have been defined by the researcher, that is to say outside the reference universe of the interviewees, into questions adapted

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Training for Field Inquiries to the respondents, to their experiences and universe of meaning. This operation requires a minimum knowledge of the field. Let us now move from the process that begins with social reality to result in a scientific product. Diagram 21. From Reality to the Scientific product

Source: Olivier de Sardan op. cit.

From empirical reality to the results, different techniques are implemented: interviews, observations, written sources, case studies, etc. These tools are connected and respond to each other – an interview may confirm an observation, a case study or documents. Through the filter of the field, the initial hypotheses are transformed into analyses concerning the initial topic in order to be transformed ultimately into interpretations that have the value of research results. At the end of the week, we will come back to data processing and the ways in which it can be conducted. I must however remind you of an essential aspect now: in the field, try to constantly maintain a reflective stance – that is to say reflect critically on yourselves, and your position in the field, on your interpretations, on what you think you understand about social reality. A fundamental aspect of qualitative inquiries is this capacity to create a dialogue between, and verify, data production and interpretations (cf. “L’adéquation empirique” by Olivier de Sardan 2008).

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia [Pierre-Yves Lemeur] Developing action for the field implies making choices, firstly in terms of the questions that are raised. We also have to listen to what the field tells us, place ourselves in a situation of discovery. This is an open and practical notion. The aim is to explore the reality that we progressively discover. When preparing the field, and during the inquiry, researchers can rely on a small number of exploratory concepts that can be used both for understanding and exploring social realities. These notions, which I am going to speak about, are used to construct the reflective framework that Emmanuel Pannier spoke about. These are notions concerning the social player, the strategic group, social interaction, and finally innovation – to be placed in relation with the question of mediation. Innovation intuitively refers to a technical idea, which may be put forward by certain players or individuals who have an intermediary role, hence the intrinsic link between innovation and mediation.

Social Player Even in extreme conditions, every person has the capacity to act: competences, knowledge, capacity to judge and reflect, values and norms. Every person has competences and capacities that allow him/her to reflect on personal experiences and evolve, an idea that is summed up in the notion of reflexivity. A field inquiry aims to catalogue the points of view of the different social players and their logics of action, which are both anchored in representations of the world (“representational” logics) and in their objectives and strategies (“strategic” logics). We must therefore listen to the points of view and reasons given, and take seriously, narratives, knowledge, judgements and social players’ expectations. However, it is also necessary to compare these with other discourses, and especially confront discourse and practices, which is difficult to do in the short time of this workshop.

Strategic Group “Strategic groups appear (...) like social groups (...) empirical and of varying scale, which defend common interests, particularly through social and political action” (Olivier de Sardan, 2003). The notion of a strategic group is based upon a simple hypothesis: groups of players share common points of view in relation to a given issue (but they do not necessarily constitute organised communities that are aware of themselves). This is an exploratory hypothesis that is very different from an analytical framework that would be posed a priori, for example, in terms of social class. This exploratory hypothesis will have to be refined as the field inquiry progresses. In order to do this, we will take an interest in the players’ trajectories, their social origins, the forms of capital they have at hand (land, economic, physical, political, social, etc.), in order to identify common characteristics shared by the players and/or the internal differences within a “strategic group”. We will then see if any organisational modes (associations or diverse groupings, etc.) appear that give a specific organisational and institutional form to a strategic group.

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Training for Field Inquiries We start from the assumption that there will be three strategic groups in our field: small holders helped by one or two state-run programmes; those who have started biogas production without any financial and/or technical support; those who have adopted innovative ideas. There are probably other players who may be operating in the development of biogas: local authorities, programme officials, traders and credit institutions. It is through the inquiry that we will identify who the people involved are. All of these social players, their interactions – conflicts or misunderstandings, but also alliances and cooperation – form the arena of the biogas programme. It is important to know who is “in” and who is “out”: in other terms, does this programme result in forms of exclusion? Conversely, we may wonder whether, in relation to other predefined target groups, other people have become involved in the project.

Social Interaction Social interactions are the fabric of everyday life. They may be spoken about by the players who are interviewed or observed (meeting, demonstration, transaction, etc.). Clearly, it is always extremely rich to observe the “natural” interactions of daily life – within the family, at work, in social places, etc. We shall concentrate on a specific group of interactions that allow us to see moments of negotiation, alliance, transaction, conflict, sanction (infringement of a regulation), arbitration, etc. The aim is to understand the position of the players in relation to each other in the framework of interaction. Conflict analysis presents a specific interest as it is present everywhere (but in different forms) and may serve as an “entry gate”, or “reveal” divisions or different positions (and also different treatments according to the situations, contexts, players, etc.). Studying interactions allows us to see how a project works, understand what is circulating in the social field or the arena it is generating: information, technology, exchange of money, etc. It also allows us to identify the existence of potential social networks: technical innovation may spread in a faster way in certain circles – these circles may be networks of people who already have pre-existing relationships. If the nature of the networks depends on the type of relationship that exists between the people – family relationships, professional relationships, etc. – another important aspect to consider is the extension of these networks – highly localised networks or broader ones, possibly trans-national – that might allow them access to other information or sources of capital. Finally, it is important to reflect on questions concerning equality between people involved in an interaction: either the individual are of the same social level (generally speaking or in relation to the activity in question) and exchange information a priori more easily, between “peers” or “equals”, or the networks are unequal and power relations are strong between the different members – and in this case, the exchange of information, of goods or services, which are generally asymmetrical, may be qualified as “clientelist” (in a descriptive form, without making value judgements).

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Innovation The first point is to characterise what innovation is. Two main types of innovation may be identified: innovation as a technical object that is inserted into a system in order to improve it without greatly modifying it; innovation as a factor of systemic effects, that is to say bringing chain transformations to production systems. One important aspect is the progression of the innovation – through which gateway does it enter the locality and how does it circulate? The idea of progression attempts to go beyond a simplistic notion that stipulates that there are exogenous innovations and others whose production is more local. For our purposes, some individuals have adopted biogas production on the basis of a programme (exogenous innovation), for others it is an individual initiative (endogenous or local innovation). This distinction is evidently too simplistic: individuals may adopt an innovation from the outside and transform it, and, in this case, the innovation becomes partly local; others have succeeded in setting up innovative practices “locally” and then opting for an outside trajectory by mobilising an exogenous project. Finally, the question of innovation is never purely technical. We have to take an interest in it as both a technical object and also in function of the political, economic and institutional context that allows its dissemination. What we believe to identify as a technical innovation – for example the introduction of a biogas production system – may correspond to a multitude of small exterior and local, technical and social, organisational and institutional innovations.

Nguyễn Minh Nguyệt What techniques do we use to construct a questionnaire?

[Olivier Tessier] We only have three days in the field. Consequently, we will not be able to work on the basis of open-ended questionnaires, but we will use semi-structured interviews.

[Emmanuel Pannier] The construction of the questionnaire is very specific and time consuming. This does not prevent us from using quantitative methods without making a questionnaire. For example, it is possible to survey the total number of households that produce biogas and compare it to the total number of households in the commune – it will be thus relevant to produce some percentages: ratio of households producing biogas, quantity of gas produced, quantity of manure used to produce biogas, porcine population before and after the introduction of biogas, etc. The use of quantitative census and the production of systemic data thus also concerns qualitative inquiries.

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2.3.2. Inquiry Techniques, Presentation of Biogas and Communes [Olivier Tessier] I would like to give you some recommendations from past JTD field workshops. The first point concerns the common elements to ask all the respondents. It is of course necessary to introduce yourself and explain the reasons for the inquiry and the institutional framework within which it is being organised. Then, it is important to give the characteristics of the household: - Household characteristics: composition; children in the village or economic migration (daily commutes; lengthy duration; definitive); - reconstitution of a short family history: head of family and spouses places of birth, migration (country of birth), etc.?; - position of the head of household (male or female), of the spouse, the children / commune, village: communeâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s CP, head of the village, secretary of the Partyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s cell; mass associations, etc.; - Economic characteristics: structure of farming operations (surface area, production systems, livestock), extra-agricultural activities (trade, etc.), economic migration outside of the village (daily, lengthy duration, definitive), etc.; - Production method: land surface; livestock; agricultural and non-agricultural activities; - Progression of the operation and agricultural/non-agricultural activities â&#x20AC;&#x201C; details about the progression of pig breeding. We should observe here that the information does not only stem from verbal exchanges; direct observation also provides some indications: type of dwelling, comfort levels, etc. The second point concerns the recording of the interviews. Even though modern recording apparatus (telephone or specialised material) have high capacity storage ability, we risk finding ourselves, after three days, with dozens of hours of recordings that are difficult to process and analyse. This is why it is essential to take notes during the interviews, knowing that the daily debriefing session in the evening and the processing of the gathered information will be based on these notes. This reasoned and brief note taking is a first level of information processing, since during the interview you are already selecting and noting down the points that appear important to you.

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Olivier Tessier introduces some technical elements about inquiries that were presented at the 2010 JTD: common base to all interviews, outline (grid) of questions and avenues of research, passage from the researcher’s question to the question asked in the field, attitude during the interview, outside intervention (Bourdeaux et al., 2011).

Nguyễn Hồng Nam Two years ago, we conducted an inquiry in Cambodia; one of the difficulties was that we didn’t speak Cambodian; this raises two problems: the time taken to interpret and the quality of the interpretation.

[Olivier Tessier] The JTD team of interpreters has several years of experience. Furthermore, we work together on the outlining of the interviews – daily meetings in the evenings.

[Pierre-Yves Lemeur] An interview entails breaking down a general question into a series of questions, even when this is conducted in our mother tongue. This allows the respondent to understand you better and creates a situation of conversation. The interpreter’s task will thus be made easier. It is also the role of the interpreter to create a relaxed relationship in order to interrupt the respondent for the time of the interpretation. Finally, we should avoid allowing the interpreter him/herself from summing up the interview. We must have an exhaustive translation, and take time to discuss with the interpreter about what was said in the interview, and also the impressions he/she gathered during this interaction (moments of tension or non-verbal discomfort for example).

Njaratiana Andrianony Rabemanantsoa Some years families are surveyed numerous times without seeing any effects of these inquiries. How can we manage this type of situation?

[Emmanuel Pannier] Personally, I explain to the households I meet the type of enquiry that I’m conducting and show them how its objectives differ from past enquiries, especially when they are rapid inquiries linked to development projects. Generally my inquiries are a lot longer, we spend weeks in a village, and they mobilise other methods. We thus obtain a form of sympathy that allows us to be better accepted when we conduct are enquiries, whatever the experiences of the families during prior enquiries.

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2.3.3. Presentation of Biogas and the Situation of Communes in the Study [Olivier Tessier] Although the concrete subject of study during these three days in the field focuses on biogas systems, our aim is not to turn you into specialists in the construction and functioning of these systems. At the risk of repeating myself, the aim of this workshop is to give you a glimpse of the tools and qualitative research methods that may be mobilised in the framework of a field inquiry dealing with a concrete issue, in this case biogas, but this issue might very well have been the development of extra-agricultural activities in a village or another subject. Diagram 22. Installation of Domestic Bio-digesters in Việt Nam

Source: author’s construction; https://www.zebu.net/media/assets/file/Contenu%20du%20site_Projets%20de%20biogaz.pdf

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Three main elements stand out in the biogas system shown above: the arrival of material – reaction with a creation of methane in this tank –; fermentation; an outflow of gas for domestic use. In order for a reaction to take place, the presence of three families of bacteria is indispensable; they will live in symbiosis in the tank in an anaerobic environment in the form of diatomic oxygen. The production of methane is gradual. We will see that the system is permanently fed by pig manure. The fermentation lasts 60 to 80 days. The organic material is added on a daily basis and the production of methane is permanent. The photos surrounding this diagram were taken in the field. In visual terms, we cannot clearly see the part buried underground, the tank, represented in the diagram. You will have to ask for an explanation from each respondent, the users, about the concrete and detailed functioning of the biogas system installed on his/her property. Two national programmes have provided support funds for the installation of biogas in the two communes in our study: - QĐ 33(decision 33): public financial aid in the framework of a national programme to build a “new countryside” (nông thôn mới - 2013).

• Province of Đà Nẵng: road, irrigation system, social infrastructures and the construction of biogas tanks: facility on interest rates at the Agricultural Bank with a limit of 10 millions đồng per household.

• District of Hoà Vang: reference ĐQ 5138, but we have not been able to procure this document.

• Commune of Hoà Khương: 156 million-đồng fund for 52 households (03/12/2014).

- “Project for the improvement of the quality and security of agricultural products and the development of the biogas programme” (ĐA QSEAP).

• 16 recipient provinces among which Đà Nẵng (100 billionVND).

[Emmanuel Pannier] Olivier presented us with some projects that include the biogas system. It will be interesting to crosscut what we know about the project from written sources with what players in the field have to say.

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Training for Field Inquiries [Olivier Tessier] Map 6. Province of Đà Nẵng and Study Sites

Sources: administrative map of Việt Nam; author’s construction.

We are going to work in two communes in the district of Hòa Vang. The commune of Hòa Sơn that is located at 17km from our base and that of Hoà Khương at 25km. The, relative, geographical distance between the two communes means that we will have to separate the workshop into two groups. During the reconnaissance mission in the field we crosscut two different criteria in order to obtain a critical mass sufficient for potential enquiries. Accessibility was also an essential factor. Here is an exhaustive list of the households equipped with biogas, as well as the programme that allowed their investment. As we can observe, there appears to be large variability between the households as far as self-financing is concerned. Their trajectories also appear to be relatively different from each other; these are two characteristics that are going to contribute to the enrichment of our enquiries.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia Table 7. Communes of Study – Households equipped with Biogas Hoà Khương Commune DA QSEAP

QĐ 33

Self - financing

Total

Gò Hà

Villages

Phú Sơn Nam

Phú Sơn 1

Phú Sơn 2

Phú Sơn 3

Hương Lam

Phú Sơn Tây

Phước Sơn

Thôn 5

La Châu

Total

137

Hoà Sơn Commune Villages 1

DA QSEAP

QĐ 33

An Ngãi Tây 1

Department of Sciences and Techniques

Self financing

Total

An Ngãi Tây 2

An Ngãi Tây 3

Tùng Sơn

An Ngãi Đông

Hoà Khê

Phú Thượng

Đại La

Xuân Phú

Phú Hạ

Total

Sources: author’s construction.

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4 1

Training for Field Inquiries We have scheduled three inquiries per day, per team of two. The organisation has been planned with the village head in order to give you relatively easy access to the selected households. Tabe 8. Villages and Households Studied by Commune Hoà Khương Commune Villages

QĐ 33

DA QSEAP

Self financing

Not bio.

Inq.

Tot.

Inq.

Tot.

Inq.

Tot.

Inq.

Tot. Inq.

Total biogas

% Inq./ total

Gò Hà

75%

Phú Sơn 3

65%

Phú Sơn I

44%

Tot. bio.

% Inq./ total

Hòa Sơn Commune Villages

QĐ 33

DA QSEAP

Self financing

Not bio.

Inq.

Tot.

Inq.

Tot.

Inq.

Tot.

Inq.

Tot. Inq.

An Ngãi Tây 2

82%

An Ngãi Tây 3

92%

An Ngãi Đông

100%

Sources: author’s construction.

Each team of two will conduct interviews with the households on the subject of three specific cases we have identified: funding by one of the two state programmes, self-financing; households non-equipped with biogas.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

The workshop is divided into two groups, one for each commune. Emmanuel Pannier and Pierre-Yves Le Meur supervise the Hoà Khương group, and Olivier Tessier that of Hòa Sơn. Hoà Khương Commune The objectives must not be too well defined, which might lead to “rigid” thinking and close off relevant avenues of research. The questions must be defined by group of players, for example: those that were funded by the different projects, those that were self-financed and finally those that have not adopted the biogas system. - Is there a disconnect between the objectives of the local authority and the adoption of the project by the population? - What access to information do those who have not adopted biogas have? - what are the gaps between villagers’ knowledge and practice?, assessment of knowledge, practices and attitudes about the quality and security of agricultural products; - Typology of operation. Who are the farmers who have the means to diversify their activities? For what reasons? A list of topics and sub-topics begins to appear: - The household’s details (history, composition of the family, production system, etc.); -technical aspects: characterisation of the innovation and trajectory; - State policies concerning biogas projects; - How the projects function (dates, how much money, advantages, who is the investor). What type of technical monitoring, how are the beneficiaries selected and what type of training is offered? - Official objectives of each project (produce gas, fertiliser, manure, hygiene, etc., and the gap between the objectives and what is observed; - How was the project received locally? - The effects on the beneficiaries (social, economic, hygiene, health and agricultural, etc.); - Situation before/after project concerning the use of energy source Commune of Hòa Sơn Olivier Tessier reminds the trainees of two aspects that should be addressed during the interviews: - Trace the history of the appearance and development of the biogas systems in function of three groups of players (funding by one of the two state programmes; self-financing; households non equipped with biogas); - The necessity of clearly defining the socio-economic situation of the families (household trajectory);

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The group defines a list of questions and stages that constitute the basis of the interview framework: - How and by whom was the respondent informed about the existence of state programmes for aid in the development of biogas (channels of dissemination)? - How were the families that were to be beneficiaries of state grants selected? - What part of the global cost is covered by the grants? - What is the economic efficiency before and after the installation of biogas? What is its environmental efficiency? - Were there any biogas installations in the village or the commune before the launching of the state programme for grants?; - How does biogas function (descriptions)? - What is done with the surplus of gas? Collective reflection results in an interview framework that will be used over days 2, 3 and 4.

Days 2, 3 and 4 The workshop moves to the communes of Hoà Khương and Hòa Sơn. Each midday, the trainees meet as a group to have lunch and exchange ideas about the interviews carried out that morning. In the evening, the groups pool together the data, realign their hypotheses, sharpen their research axes and define new avenues of research.

Day 5, Friday 15th July This day is devoted to the pooling together of the gathered data, as well as to the preparation of the presentation plan of the next day’s exposé in plenary session. Each group establishes a database and then classifies the topics that emerge from the information gathered in the field. The results are debated within each group and then between the two groups together.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

The final product is built around the following axes: (i) the general context of biogas in Việt Nam and the specific sites of the study in the framework of energy transition; (ii) presentation of the inquiry: description of the samples, methodological tools used, etc.; (iii) the technical elements of biogas functioning; (iv) the trajectory of innovation; (v) the motivations and logics of the players; (vi) the development of the territory, development projects for pig breeding and environmental development policies. The exposé will conclude with two questions: to what extent is biogas a tool of energy transition and/or a tool of territorial development? What outlooks were foreseen? Pierre-Yves Le Meur proposes to raise the issue at the end of the presentation. What is important is to understand that is an exploratory pre-enquiry that allows us to identify the research questions.

Reading text and work document Olivier de Sardan, J.-P. (2008), « La politique du terrain. Sur la production des données en anthropologie », in Lagrée, St. (ed.), Nouvelles approches méthodologiques appliquées au développement, Université d’été en Sciences Sociales 2007, éditions The Gioi.

Selected Bibliography Bourdeaux, P., E. Pannier and O. Tessier (2011), « Formation aux enquêtes et aux pratiques de terrain en socioanthropologie. Enjeux, tensions et conflits autour de l’appropriation et de l’usage du foncier », in Lagrée, St. (ed.), « Transition décrétées, transitions vécues. Du global au local : approches méthodologiques, transversales et critiques », Conférences et Séminaires, n°2, AFD-ÉFEO. Culas, C. and O. Tessier (2009), « Formation en sociologie et anthropologie : méthodes et flexibilité, enquêtes de terrain et organisation du recueil de données », in Lagrée St. (ed.), Nouvelles approches méthodologiques appliquées au développement (2), Université d’été en Sciences sociales 2008, éditions The Gioi. Le Meur, P-Y., E. Pannier, O. Tessier and Trương Hoàng Trương (2015), « Formation à l’enquête de terrain. Pratiques, réseaux et stratégies liés à la culture maraîchères en zone péri-urbaine », in Lagrée St. (ed.), « Regard sur le développement urbain durable. Approches méthodologiques, transversales et opérationnelles », Conférences et Séminaires, n°13, AFD-ÉFEO. Luckmann, T. and P.L. Berger (1966), La construction sociale de la réalité, Random House. Olivier de Sardan, J.-P. (2003), « L’enquête socioantropologique de terrain : synthèse méthodologique et recommandation à l’usage des étudiants », Laboratoire d’études et recherches sur les dynamiques sociales du développement local (LASDEL), Études et travaux, n°13.

186

Training for Field Inquiries Razafindrakoto, M., J.-P. Cling, C. Culas and F. Roubaud (2011), « Comment la transition économique est-elle vécue et perçue par la population ? Analyse de la complémentarité entre approches quantitatives et qualitatives », in Lagrée St. (ed.), « Transition décrétées, transitions vécues – Du global au local : approches méthodologiques, transversales et critiques », Conférences et Séminaires, n°2, AFD-ÉFEO. Tremblay, R., R. and Y. Perrier (2006), Savoir plus : outils et méthodes de travail intellectuel, Les Éditions de la Chenelière inc., 2nd edition.

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List of Trainees Name and Surname

Establishment

Domain/ discipline

Research topic

Bùi Việt Thành

University of Social and Human Sciences, Hồ Chí Minh City National University

Anthropology, sociology

Changes in the means of subsistence in the Quảng Trị craft villages

bvthanh2001@ gmail.com

ChhornDina

Royal University of Law and Economics

Public economics, economic integration

Poverty and vulnerability dynamics in Asia

dina.chhorn.edu@ gmail.com

Phommaxay Chittasavone

National University of Laos

Socio-linguistics

Socio-linguistics and didactics

chittasavonep@ yahoo.fr

Đồng Bích Ngọc

Việt Nam Institute of Economics

International economics, green growth

Energy transition– Việt Nam

bngocdong@ gmail.com

Lê Ngọc Thuấn

Hà Nội University of Resources and the Environment

Sewage treatment, biogas production processes

Sewage water treatment using biotechnology, biogas from livestock waste

thuanlengoc@ gmail.com

Lê Trương Ngọc Hân

Hồ Chí Minh City University of Agriculture and Forestry

Management of natural resources

Means of subsistence of communities and the assessment of their resources

letruongngochan@gmail.com

Lienghuy Lorn

Royal University of Law and Economics

Law

leanghuy@gmail. com

Nguyễn Hồng Nam

Hà Nội University of Science and Technology

Energy and environment

Field inquiry: domestic gasifiers

nguyen-hong. nam@usth.edu.vn

Nguyễn Diệu Linh

GASS

Human rights

Development

linhmarie.gass@ gmail.com

Nguyễn Minh Nguyệt

Hà Nội University of Social and Human Sciences

Anthropology

Phước Hòa hydraulic project: anthropological study of the model of governance and participation

nguyetk35b@ yahoo.com

Nguyễn Thanh Huyền

VASS

International economics

Green growth and economic development in Việt Nam

thanhhuyen9306@ gmail.com

Nguyễn Thị Tám

Institute of Ethnology - VASS

Social anthropology, development economics

Rural development – the commune of Hòa Nhớn, district of Hòa Vang, Đà Nẵng

hongtam.ls89@ gmail.com

Nguyễn Thị Thanh Xuyên

VASS – Central Việt Nam

Anthropology

Rural development model in Central Việt Nam

xuyenthanh27@ gmail.com

Nguyễn Trung Đức

VASS

Environment and sustainable development

Green growth

nguyentrungduc1711@gmail. com

188

Training for Field Inquiries Name and Surname

Establishment

Domain/ discipline

Research topic

Phạm Tiến Thành

Tôn Đức Thắng University

Development economics

Microfinance

thanhpham1.6.85@ gmail.com

Njaratiana Andrianony Rabema nantsoa

Engineering

Think tank on energy

Technology of biomass development in the supply of domestic energy

njararabemanantsoa@gmail.com

Nuch Ramo

National Business Institute

Political sciences

Social protection in Cambodia

nuchramo@yahoo. com

Trần Thị Châu Phương

Hồ Chí Minh City University of Social Science and Humanities

Anthropology

Rural development

tranthichauphuong@gmail. com

189

Biographies of Speakers

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Hélène DESSARD Email: helene.dessard@cirad.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 1991: diploma in agronomic engineering from the École nationale supérieure agronomique (ENSA)Montpellier. 1996: Ph.D. in applied statistics from the University of Montpellier II.

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Researcher at the Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement (CIRAD) since 1998, within the research unit dedicated to Goods and services of tropical forest ecosysems (B&SEF). Currently posted to Montpellier, France.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK My professional activities mainly concern quantitative analysis to deal with questions concerning the study of forest socio-ecosystems: from statistical methodology applied to the dynamics of tropical forests to the use of quantitative and participatory methods for the study of interactions between tropical societies and forests. My research work is more generally part of the topic of the change in land use as a result of the pressure of new investments, particularly the industrial mining that has been recently redeveloped in the forests of the Congo Basin.

192

Biographies of Speakers

Alexis DROGOUL Email: alexis.drogoul@ird.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2000: Accreditation to direct research in computers sciences, Université de Paris 6 1993: Ph.D. in computer sciences, Paris 6 University, congratulations of the jury.

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Director of research since December 2004 at the Institut de recherches pour le développement (IRD). Deputy director of the UMI UMMISCO (IRD/UPMC) and director of the ICTLab, Hanoi University of Sciences and Technology, since 2015. Associate researcher (from 2012 to 2015) at the University of Cần Thơ (Việt Nam). Visiting professor at the University of Kyoto in 2011.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK My general research work issue concerns the conception of tools of artificial intelligence to help with the modelling and simulation of complex systems, with a great desire to facilitate interdisciplinary work and extract multi-domain, cross-cutting concepts. On these grounds, I was already participating in 1991 in defining certain basic concepts of “agent-based modelling”, and at the same time working in parallel on numerous thematic applications (in ethnology, hydrology, geography, road traffic, to mention but a few). From 1998, at the crossroads of the domains of computer science, experimental economy and participative conception, I worked more specifically on participative simulation and modelling methods, which allow us to involve social players in the conception of models which showed themselves to be particularly adapted to the management of conflicts concerning the users of shared resources. They have been successfully applied in the field (Bhutan, Việt Nam, Thailand and Mexico), In 2005, I became the designer and one of the principal architects of the modelling and simulation platform GAMA (http://gama-platform.googlecode.com), which, to recapitulate 15 years of research in the domain, aims to put at the disposal of non-computer scientists tools of conception for spatially explicit, multi-scale and multi-formalism models, as well as allow an “intelligent” exploitation (by simulation and optimisation) of the thematic project in which I have been participating for more than six years now, first in Hà Nội the at the University of Cần Thơ, involve decision support in the policy of fighting against environmental disaster (the rise and salinization of Mekong water, biological invasion, avian flu epidemiology, urban disaster).

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Benoît GAUDOU Email: benoit.gaudou@ut-capitole.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2008: Ph.D. in artificial intelligence, University of Toulouse.

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING In 2010, after completing two post-doctorate years at the Institut de la Francophonie pour l’Informatique (IFI) in Hà Nội. I took a post as lecturer in the computer science faculty at the University of Toulouse 1, Capitole. I am carrying out my research within the Institut de Recherche en Informatique de Toulouse (IRIT) in the “Systèmes Multi- Agents Coopératifs” (SMAC) team.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK Generally speaking, my research work concerns the formal or non-formal in human cognition and decision-making (particularly confidence and emotions) and the integration of these models within multi-agent simulations. This research is currently part of two research projects: - The MAELIA project (Multi-Agent for Environmental Norms Impact Assessment) supported by the RTRA STAE. The MAELIA project consist in modelling the socio-environmental impacts of the governance and management norms of renewable natural resources and the environment. It aims at developing a modelling and simulation platform of the direct/indirect and expected/unexpected impacts of norms on a territory whose resources are both subject to concurrent exploitation and dependent on physic-bio-geochemical variations. The preferred domain of application is water management in the Adour-Garonne basin; - The ANR EmosTES project (Emotion in Social Interaction: theory, experiences, logical and computerised studies). The aim of the EmoTES project is to study the so-called strategic emotions, such as guilt, remorse, envy, anger, and moral satisfaction which may arise in a strategic interaction context (that is to say, when the utility of an agent’s choice also depends on what other agents are going to decide to do) under the triple point of view of psychological theories, logical formalisation and simulation. The aim is to integrate strategic emotions into the behaviour of agents on the Soc Lab (simulation platform of organisations based and P. Roggero of Sociologie de l’Action Organisée) platform. I am also involved in several other thematic network supported by the National Network of Complex System, whose network are SimTools-Network, MAPS (Multi-Agent modelling applied to Spatial Phenomena) and METISSE (Methods and Theories for an Engineering of Socio- Environmental

194

Biographies of Speakers Systems). Finally, I am participating in the development of the GAMA platform for multi-agent modelling and simulation.Â

195

The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Denis GAUTIER Email: denis.gautier@cirad.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2011: Accreditation to direct research in Geography at the University of Paris 1, Panthéon - Sorbonne. 1996: Ph.D. in Geography, specialising in dynamics and spatial structures at the University of Avignon et des pays de Vaucluse (very honourable distinction, with the unanimous congratulations from the jury).

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Researcher at the CIRAD since 1999, within the B&SEF research unit. Currently posted to Burkina Faso.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK My competences are centred on topics concerning natural and vegetable resources and rural territories, considered from the point of view of the dynamic interactions between the practices and strategies of stakeholders and territorial processes. I was trained in agronomy and specialised in tropical forestry, and my activities initially focused on the management of renewable resources according to two favoured themes: tree management by rural communities and the management of the peripheral zones of protected areas. These two topics form part of the nature/society interface that is my research domain. The systemic methods that I use seek to integrate human action through rural practices. This allows me to acquire, as well as technical competences in agronomy and forestry, concepts, methods and human sciences tools. After a first experience, in the field in Bamiléké country (Cameroon), showed me, on the basis of studies in agroforestry and rural forestry, the interest of analysing resource management by the stakeholders in space and in time, I oriented my research towards spatial analysis and geography in order to acquire the conceptual (territory and landscape) and technical (geographical information systems and simulation models) elements that allow me to “territorialise” the management practices of resources and articulate them with the processes at different levels and of different natures that partly determine them and that they influence in return. My research has thus led me to delineate a central issue: to what extent do the different types (global, state, customary, or linked to an activity) of territorialisation processes and the representations that lie beneath them influence management and the exploitation practices of natural resources and therefore environmental dynamics, and how, in return, do these practices participate in power games for access to natural resources and in territorial dynamics. This questioning allowed me to draw close to the PoliticalEcology community that now serves as a basis for my work.

196

Biographies of Speakers

Laurent GAZULL Email: laurent.gazull@cirad.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2009: Ph.D. in geography at University of Paris 7 (very honourable distinction, unanimous congratulations from the jury)

POSTING Researcher at the CIRAD since 1999, within the B&SEF (Goods and Services of Tropical Forest Ecosystems) research unit. Currently posted in Montpellier, France.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK As a geographer and an agronomist, my work mainly focuses on the spatial (location, spatial and social interactions, modelling) analysis of agricultural practices and the exploitation of natural resources (forests, water). Over the last ten years the main topic of my work has been bioenergy: electricity, heat, solid or liquid combustibles in southern countries. My method aims at combining sector analysis, analysis of stakeholder strategies and spatial analysis in order to understand and foresee the development of biomass-energy sectors and their consequences in terms of change in agricultural practices and land use.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Javier GIL QUIJANO Email: javier.gil-quijano@cea.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2007: Ph.D. in computer sciences, University of Paris 6.

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Technical advisor in artificial intelligence since September 2014 at the French atomic energy and alternative energy commission (CAE); research engineer at the CAE since October 2010.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK My current research issue is the use of artificial intelligence methods for modelling and the piloting of socio-technical systems. During my preceding research experiences, I was interested in the use of machine-based learning methods, statistics and multi-agent simulation for the modelling of complex urban (demography), and biological (evolution of cancerous tumours) phenomena and human behaviour. Since 2014, I have represented the LIST Institute (specialised in the development of logistic and robotic solutions in domains such as energy, industry, transport and objects connected to health) at the CEA, in the Provence et Côté d’Azur (PACA region). My role is to facilitate the transfer of technologies developed by the CEA/LIST for industrial operators in the region. At the same time, I am responsible for doctoral and post-doctoral students in subjects concerning the use of artificial intelligence in domains such as wireless communication networks, home automation and transport. From 2012 to 2014, I was in charge of five researchers who worked on the development of optimisation methods for the multi-player piloting of energy systems. One of the most important results of this work is the multi-agent platform for the piloting of energy systems: Gestion de ressources énergétiques autonomes et distribués (GRENAD). I am currently the technical leader of several industrial and European projects that involve the use of multi-agent systems in the distributed monitoring of multi-agent systems (buildings, distribution networks) and the distributed management and optimisation of energy systems at different levels (eco-neighbourhoods, virtual plants for generating wind energy, generating electricity from solar energy for electric vehicles). In the domain of communication and information technologies for efficient energy and management systems, I am the technical coordinator of the EDENS project (2012-2016, funded by the BPI –France) and the RESILIENT project (2012-2016, FP7).

198

Biographies of Speakers

Gaël GIRAUD Email: giraudg@afd.fr Gaël Giraud is a Jesuit who is also a graduate of the École normale supérieure, Paris, and the École nationale de la statistique et de l’administration économique (ENSAE) and a former fellow of the Centre of Operational Research (CORE), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. He obtained his Ph.D. in the econometrics laboratory of the École polytechnique in 1998. In 2009, he was nominated as the best young economist in France by Le Monde / Le Cercle des économistes. Gaël Giraud is the head economist at the Agence Française de Développement. His work with the CNRS, where he is the research director, focuses on alternative development measures, the theory of general equilibrium, game theory, finance and energy issues. Within the CODEV programme (Essec), he has participated in numerous field studies (Nigeria, Indonesia, India, etc.) that are devoted to the construction of an indicator to measure the quality of the social fabric, as an indicator of development quality. He is the scientific coordinator of the “Riskergy” research group into energy risk and sovereign debt and a member of the scientific board of the “Laboratoire d’Excellence” devoted to financial regulation (LabExReFi). He participated in the board of experts for the national debate on energy transition for the French government. He holds the “Energy and Prosperity” chair at the Louis Bachelier Institute. He is also a member of the NGO European Finance Watch and the Nicolas Hulot foundation.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Pierre-Yves LE MEUR Email: pierre-yves.lemeur@ird.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2006: Accreditation to direct research in Ethnology and Social Anthropology, EHESS, Paris (title: Anthropologie de la gouvernance. Politique des ressources, dispositifs du développement & logiques des acteurs; published in 2011)

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Anthropologist, research director at the IRD, member of the UMR Gouvernance, Risque, Environnement, Développement (GRED), associated researcher at the EHESS (Centre Norbert Elias, Marseille), posted to the Nouméa centre (2008 - 2015), currently posted to the IRD, Montpellier.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK My current fields of research explore questions regarding the policy of resources and ownership in New Caledonia and in the Pacific, concerning land, mining and environmental issues and issues of value associated with these resources and places. (i) Land issues (terrestrial and maritime): interaction between land rights, ownership policies and political and judicial authorities, in relation to settlement history, contemporary political transformations and the trajectories of land reform. (ii) Anthropology of the mine: relations between local arenas (socio-political and economic reconfigurations, identities), mining activity (extraction/transformation) and production of public policies (governance, CSR, local agreements). (iii) Environment and site value: relations between local knowledge, biodiversity, appropriation and development of space and nature, environmental systems, ecosystem services. (iv) Discourse and systems, practices and development policy as crosscutting themes.

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Biographies of Speakers

Johanna LEES Email: leesjohanna@gmail.com

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2014: Ph.D. in sociology (EHESS): “An ethnography of energy insecurity: beyond public action, putting living space to the test”, very honourable distinction with unanimous congratulations from the jury.

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Johanna Lees is an associated researcher at the Norbert Elias centre and has been working on research projects hosted by Norbert Elias centre since completing her Ph.D. The first project is entitled “Ordinary city, precarious citizens: transition or programmed disappearance of springboard neighbourhoods?” It was directed by Agnès Deboulet. The second, FOS EPSEAL “Participatory study in environmental health” in the Etang de Berre zone was directed by Barbara Allen, from Virginia Tech University. At the same time, Johanna Lees is a member of and researcher the Laboratory of Applied Social Sciences (LaSSA).

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK Johanna Lees has carried out her research into the topic of “energy insecurity” about which she proposes both a political analysis concerning the emergence of the structuration of this category and an ethnography of the families concerned that live in Marseilles in large, dilapidated shared housing and in smaller buildings in the city centre. Her research topics, which concern the sociology and anthropology of the “working-class” environment, of migration and of poverty in the urban environment, are at the intersection of energy access, “bad housing”, and environmental inequality issues. She is increasingly interested in the issue of environmental inequalities that are still issues that are little thought about in France, whereas in the United States they emerged at the beginning of the 1970s with the environmental justice movement. Currently, she is carrying out, with a multi-disciplinary team (sociology, anthropology, epidemiology) applied research into environmental health with the étang de Berre population, which is in one of the biggest industrial zones in France. In the framework of this project, the Fos EPSEAL project, Community bases Participatory research (CBPR) methods are being experimented in order to give inhabitants and local stakeholders the possibility of co-elaborating in this environmental health research with researchers. More generally, the aim of the research lies in a political anthropological perspective, to understand the relationship with the State of “the working-class”, through the experience of individuals (participation in collective actions, experiments of social or administrative systems for example).

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Julien MAZARS Email: mazarsju@gmail.com

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2013: diploma in computer science engineering at the Compiègne University of Technology (UTC).

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING I have been an international volunteer in administration (VIA) with the IRD since October 2015, in logistic engineering and scientific animation involving the “GAMA” modelling platform.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK I joined the IRD after two years experience in the service sector, where I had the opportunity to work for large companies such as CEA, Air Liquide, ERDF and EDF, working as computer science engineer on issues such as visualisation and simulation.

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Biographies of Speakers

Hypatia NASSOPOULOS Email: hypatia.nassopoulos@eivp-paris.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2012: Ph.D. in “The impacts of climate change on water resources in the Mediterranean”, University Paris-Est, École des Ponts Paris Tech, France, École Doctorale “City, Transports and territories”, domain “Economic Sciences”.

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Hypatia Nassopoulos is a teacher/researcher at the École des Ingénieurs, Paris (EIVP), in the energy and climate pole. She represents the EIVP in the European community of knowledge and innovations network (KIC Climate), as well as in the setting up of innovation projects. Moreover, Hypatia Nassopoulos represents the EIVP in the framework of the setting up of European projects H2020 (scientific, financial and administrative aspects). She is also in charge of traineeships at the EIVP and participates in the academic supervision of students at the EIVP, through her lectures and supervising of projects within the Energy and Climate pole.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK Hypatia Nassopoulos’ research mainly deals with climate change (CC) and notably the inclusion of the issue of adaptation to climate change on operational local scales particularly at the urban development scale. Hypatia Nassopoulos is currently involved in the Adaptatio research project that is financed by the French ministry for Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy. The aim of the project is to propose a new methodology for the inclusion of CC adaptation in the conception process of urban development projects. This entails thinking about adaptation and mitigation jointly and prior to the urban development project conception process, by focusing on two key resources: energy and water. In the framework of this research, the objective is to develop a new assessment tool for the water and energy consumption of an urban project for different climatic scenarios and technical choices, and to bring together, in the framework of the decision making process, all the stakeholders/practitioners involved in this process. In this framework, three research issues are coordinated by Hypatia Nassopoulos: - In order to bring the adaptation to CC challenge closer to the operational sphere, interviews are conducted with agents from the city of Paris and public/private sector players who are involved in urban development projects. The aim is to assess the understanding of urban public/ private sector practitioners of the CC challenge, and to see if the latter is taken into account in their operational activities. These interviews allow us to identify a Paris urban development project that may be used in order to test the multidisciplinary approach developed within the framework of the Adaptatio project;

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia - In order to provide the quantitative information so as to foresee the future situation and think beforehand about the adaptability and flexibility of an urban development process, modelling activities are carried out with ENVI-met, a three-dimensional software programme that is immobile and non-hydrostatic. The ENVI-met software programme is used in order to analyse, at the urban development project level, the urban microclimate from the angle of different climate scenarios and technical choices; - In order to propose a new framework for organisation and reflection with the active participation of all the stakeholders concerned, so as to involve them in the innovation process, exploratory research is being carried out on the Design Thinking theory. The aim is to discover all the aspects of this theory and establish a parallel with the process of urban development, with a view to identifying all the potential synergies. Hypatia Nassopoulos coordinates research projects carried out by the EIVP within the framework of the KIC Climat ACCENT project into energy transition and the H2020 Resin project into adaptation to climate change and resilience.

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Biographies of Speakers

Emmanuel PANNIER Email: manuelpannier@yahoo.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2013-2014: Qualified to lecture in sections 19 (sociology, demography) and 20 (ethnology, prehistory, biological anthropology) of the Conseil National des Universités. 2006-2012: Ph.D. in anthropology, University of Aix-Marseilles 1.

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Postdoctoral researcher at the École française d’Extrême-Orient. In charge of lessons at the University of Toulouse-Jean Jaurès (UFR Sciences Espaces et Sociétés Department of Sociology and Anthropology).

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK I have been in Vietnam since 2005 and have been carrying out research into the rural populations of the Red River Delta (Mường, Tày, Thái, Hmong, Dao) and in some locations in the South of Vietnam (Đồng Nai, Long An et Tay Ninh). The common approach of my different research consists in shedding light upon the expressions and transformations of social links through the study of relationship networks, exchanges and methods of social regulation. In this perspective, my research addresses social phenomena not only at the level of separate individuals, nor only at the level of structures, but above all at the level of relationships, the interactions and exchanges that link social agents together. My research particularly focuses on non-trade circulation, social practices, Statepopulation relations, rural development projects, the social management of irrigation and social change. My research, which lies between economic anthropology and political anthropology, definitively raises the question of policy, understood as the acts, alliances and conflicts that participate in the construction, maintaining and reproduction of society.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Damien PHILIPPON Email: damien.philippon.dev@gmail.com

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2015: Master’s in Computer Sciences option “Intelligent Systems and Multimedia” at the Institut de la Francophonie pour l’Informatique (IFI) a twin degree course with the University of La Rochelle (year 2).

CURRENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING I have a Bachelor’s degree in computer sciences with a “developer” option and also a “multimedia” one, I am completing my training by learning about the modelling of complex systems within a framework more geared to research in order to carry out doctoral work in a Southeast Asian country.

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Biographies of Speakers

Patrick TAILLANDIER Email: patrick.taillandier@univ-rouen.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2008: Ph.D. in geographical information science, Paris-Est University, carried out in the COGIT laboratory of the IGN: “Automatic revision of the knowledge guiding behaviour trees. Application in the context of the generalisation of geographical data”.

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Geography lecturer at the University of Rouen – UMR IDEES “Identity and Differentiation of Spaces, Environment and societies” – MTG Laboratory “Modelling and graphic processing in Geography”. Holder of a chair of excellence at the CNRS.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK My research work deals with modelling and the computer simulation of complex systems. I am particularly interested in the agent-based modelling of socio-environmental systems. I am working in the framework of three research axes: - Integration of geographical data in agent-based models. The objective of this axis is to give modellers tools to integrate and manipulate GIS data in simulations; - definition of cognitive agents in simulation. Today there are many platforms that aim to help modellers create their own models. Nevertheless, in the framework of modelling complex entities such as human beings, these platforms are often very limited. I am therefore interested in the defining of tools that will allow us to fill this gap. This research axis is at the heart of the ANR ACTEUR project, of which I am the coordinator, which began at the beginning of 2014. - analysis and calibration of agent-based models. Agent-based models are generally very complex. Understanding their dynamics and being able to calibrate them often proves to be very difficult. I am thus working on the development of methods that will allow, with the help of techniques from artificial intelligence, the automatic analysis and calibration of models. I am also involved in the logistical development of the GAMA platform. This platform integrates a rich modelling language and advanced management of geographical data.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Olivier TESSIER Email: olivier.tessier@efeo.net ; otessier2002@yahoo.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS Doctor in Anthropology, University of Aix - Marseille I, 1995 – 2003, « Le pays natal est un carambole sucré » Ancrage social et mobilité spatiale: essai de définition d’un espace social local au nord du Vietnam. Academy of Aix-Marseille, University of Provence (Aix-Marseille I), département d’anthropologie secteur Lettres & Sciences Humaines, December 2003, 658 p. + 150 p. of Appendix.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK After studying to become a tropical agronomic engineer and spending four years in charge of development programmes (Burkina Faso, Haiti), Olivier Tessier began a doctorate in anthropology in 1995 (University of Aix-Marseille) for which the field work was situated in the north of Việt Nam (province of Phú Thọ). While writing his thesis, which he defended in 2003, he attempted to demonstrate the kinh (or Viet) rural space, generally conceived and described as the aggregation of total and exclusive units represented by the village, which takes on a different aspect when envisaged through the angle of exchanges, of the dynamics of constitution and transformation of social and political spaces. The peasants’ legendary ties to the “land of their ancestors” has been replaced by a more complex and burgeoning reality, that of a mobile population always ready to move to wherever opportunities present themselves. Co-editor of “Le Village en question”, the fruit of a multi-disciplinary research programme jointly carried out from 1996 to 2000 by the EFEO centre in Hà Nội and the VASS, Olivier Tessier also coordinated his own research at the same time: two scientific cooperation programmes (1999-2000) for the Catholic University of Louvain, in the mountainous provinces of Sơn La et Hòa Bình. During the same period, he participated in expert missions for international organisations (European Union, World Bank). Finally, from January 2005 to September 2006, he directed the FSP project “Research Support on Economic and Social Transition Issues in Việt Nam” which was financed by the Ministry for Foreign Affairs and implemented by the ÉFEO centre in Hà Nội. In the framework of his posting at the ÉFEO as a lecturer (September 2006), he pursued his research into the key question concerning the evolution of the relationship between the “State – peasant communities” throughout the 19th and 20th centuries by looking at them from a water management and hydraulic viewpoint, the omnipresence of which shaped the countryside and permeated human culture. In concrete terms, it is advisable to examine the economic, political and social conditions of the implementation of a large-scale hydraulic infrastructure in the Red River and Mekong River deltas, to envisage the possibilities of controlling human activity and land offered by such a laying out of space, to take an interest in the construction techniques which have progressively resulted in the remodelling of the territory, and finally to analyse the modalities of water management implemented by peasant communities on the one hand, and by the state through its specialized corporations, which are veritable technical services, on the other.

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Biographies of Speakers As head of the ÉFEO-VASS archaeological cooperation programme, he coordinated different projects in order to support the Institute of Archaeology in its mission of conservation – cultural heritage development of the site. At the same time, he carried out over two years in Việt Nam and in France archive-based research into the history of Hà Nội Citadelle during the 19th century. Based on Vietnamese imperial annals and on the abundant written and iconographical sources (plans, maps, photographs) produced during the colonial period, this historical reconstitution work resulted in the organization of several lectures and an exhibition. A written publication is currently being drafted. After having been the EFEO representative in Việt Nam (Hanoi headquarters and the branch in Hồ Chi Minh city) for three years (2012-2015), he has been in charge of the Hồ Chi Minh city branch since September 2015 where he coordinates the project “Local governance – Phuoc Hoa water resources management project” that focuses on the relationships between the local stakeholders involved in the management of the resource. The EFEO has indeed been solicited by the AFD in 2014 to carry out a study into the social impact of the big water development project in the Đồng Nai river basin (sub-basins of Saigon and Vàm Cỏ Đông) that has been implemented and co-funded by the Vietnam government, the AFD and Asian Development Bank. Its objective is to improve the availability of water resources and promote the efficient and sustainable management of the resource throughout the basin. In this framework, the study carried out by the EFEO branch in Hồ Chi Minh city aims to describe and analyse the methods of local water governance in two large irrigated perimeters that have been developed by the project: Tân Biên (6.500 ha. - Tây Ninh province) and Đức Hòa (10 200ha - Long An province). In concrete terms, the project aims to assess the match between the objectives assigned to the project in 2003 in terms of the political and social management of water resources, and the expectations of the different stakeholders involved in an evolutive context marked by deep social and economic transformations both on a local and regional scale.

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia

Sébastien VELUT Email: sebastien.velut@univ-paris3.fr

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 2007: accreditation to supervise research, Paris III University - Sorbonne Nouvelle. Ph.D. thesis « nouveau régime » Paris III University - Sorbonne Nouvelle - Institut des hautes études d’Amérique latine - discipline: Geography, development, urbanism, speciality: geography. Very honourable distinction with the unanimous congratulations of the jury. 1991: Agrégation in geography.

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING I am currently a teacher at the Institut des Hautes Etudes de l’Amérique latine (Sorbonne nouvelle) that I directed from 2011 to 2015 and vice director of international relations at the Sorbonne Paris Cité University. Before this, I was a researcher seconded to the IRD and based in Chile.

CURRENT MISSIONS AND RESEARCH WORK My research focuses on political development geography, particularly in Latin America, even though my work has also taken me to Lebanon and New Caledonia. In recent years, I have worked on several research projects linked to energy transition, notably the ANR energy transition in southern cities (TERMOS) and Energy transition in the Brazilian Amazon (Tedamaz). I strive to bring to energy transition issues a vision that comes from the field and the stakeholders to defend the idea that there are a multitude of possible trajectories for energy transition.

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Acronyms and Abbreviations ADEN

Agence nationale du développement et de l’énergie

AFD

Agence Française de Développement

IEA

International Energy Agency

Adapting Mosaic

ASEAN

Association of South East Asian Nations

VASS

Việt Nam Academy of Social Sciences

AUF

Agence universitaire de la francophonie

B&SEF

Goods and Services of Tropical Forest Ecosystems

Climate Change

CBPR

Community based Participatory Research

CEA

French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission

CIAT

International Center for Tropical Agriculture

CIRAD

French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development

CNRS

National Center for Scientific Research

CO2

Carbon Dioxide

COP

Conference of Parties

CORE

Center of OperationalResearch

CSRD

Center for Social Research and Development

CRS

Republican Security Companies

EDF

Électricité de France

ÉFEO

École française d’Extrême-Orient

ENSA

École nationale supérieure agronomique

ENSAE

École nationale de la statistique et de l’administration économique

EIVP

École des Ingénieurs de la Ville de Paris

ETo

Reference evapo-transpiration

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organisation

IMF

International Monetary Fund

GAMA

Gis and Agent-Based Modelling Architecture

GASS

Graduate Academy of Social Sciences

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The Challenges of Energy Transition in Việt Nam and in Southeast Asia GDN

Global Development Network

Greenhouse gas

IPCC

International Panel on Climate Change

GRED

Governance, risk, environnement, developpement

GRENAD

Gestion de ressources énergétiques autonomes et distribués

Global Orchestration

IBA

Impact and Benefit Agreements

IFI

Institut de la francophonie pour l’informatique

INRA

National Institute of Agricultural Research

IRD

Institut de recherche pour le développement

IRIT

Institut de recherche en informatique de Toulouse

JTD

Journées de Tam Đảo (Tam Đảo Days)

LaSSA

Laboratoire de sciences sociales appliquées

LIBOR

London Interbank Offered Rate

LEMNA

Laboratoire d’économie et de management de Nantes-Atlantique

MAELIA

Multi-Agent for Environmental Norms Impact Assessment

MAPS

Modélisation multi-agents appliquée aux phénomènes spatialisés

MEA

Millenium Ecosystems Assessment

Mercosur

Southern Common Market

MIT

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

MTG

Modélisation et Traitements graphiques en Géographie

NASA

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

OECD

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development

SDGs

Sustainable Development Goals

NGO

Non-governmental Organization

United Nations

OPEC

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

Order by Strength

PACA

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur

GDP

Gross Domestic Product

DCs

Developing Countries

RNSC

Réseau national des systèmes complexes

RSB

Round table on sustainable bio-carbons

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Acronyms and Abbreviations CSR

Corporate Social Responsibility

RSPO

Roundtable on sustainable palm oil norms

SMAC

Systèmes multi-agents coopératifs

TERMOS

Energy Trajectories in Metropolitan Regions of the South

Techno Garden

SRC

Short rotation coppice

European Union

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

RULE

Royal University of Law and Economics Sciences (Cambodia)

UTC

Université technologique de Compiègne

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