Improving Urban Mobility Through Technological Advance of Motor Vehicles Clifford Winston Searle Freedom Trust Senior Fellow Brookings Institution* Clifford Winston has been with Brookings since 1984. He is an applied microeconomist who specializes in the analysis of industrial organization, regulation, and transportation. Winston has also been co-editor of the annual microeconomics edition of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Prior to his fellowship at Brookings, he was an Associate Professor in the Transportation Systems Division of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Department of Civil Engineering. *This paper synthesizes material in Winston (2013) and Winston and Mannering (2014).
Abstract: Traffic fatalities in the U.S. claim over 30,000 lives annually and congestion continues to cost the nation U.S. $100 billion a year. There is a growing urgency for solutions to be implemented, but effective options such as improved highway pricing are often impeded by political and institutional factors. Technologies such as the driverless car, which may be common sight by 2025, could also go a long way in relieving pressure on the nation’s highways.
Introduction
delays and expenditures on fuel, at more than $100 billion.
Despite frustratingly frequent
The nation’s road system is vital to U.S.
lane closures for road repairs, federal and
urban areas.
Roughly 75 percent of goods,
state highway agencies’ expenditures cannot
based on value, are transported on roads by
seem to outpace the rate of road-infrastructure
truck, 93 percent of workers’ commutes are
deterioration. Finally, although highway safety
on roads by private automobiles and public
has improved during the past few decades,
buses, and by far the largest share of non-
because of greater enforcement of drunken driving
work and pleasure trips are taken by road.
laws, improvements in vehicle safety, and other factors, traffic fatalities are still one of the leading
Unfortunately, the arteries are clogged: the
causes of non-disease deaths in the United States,
benefits that commuters, families, truckers, and
exceeding more than 30,000 lives annually.
shippers receive from the road system have been increasingly compromised by growing
Economists
have
repeatedly
pointed
out
congestion, vehicle damage, and accident
that policymakers could address highway
costs. The Texas Transportation Institute’s latest
inefficiencies by implementing efficient road
Urban Mobility Report puts the annual cost of
pricing for cars and trucks and by making
congestion to the nation, including both travel
efficient investments based on cost-benefit
This article is part of a series about the future of urban mobility prepared for Cities on the Move, a one-day event organized by the New Cities Foundation and hosted by Google on March 6th, 2014 in Mountain View, California. 1
analyses. Highway authorities could also
Certain stakeholders pressure members of
implement recent technological innovations
Congress and regulatory officials to oppose
to improve highway performance. However,
efficient reforms. For example, the American
efficient reforms are impeded by institutional
Automobile Association and the American
and political factors and by policymakers’
Trucking
unsustainable
congestion
but
nonetheless
preferred
Association tolls
and
oppose
efficient
pavement
charges
strategy to increase spending to build their
because they may cause some of their members
way out of congestion and to improve the
to pay more for using the road system, while
condition of highways and motorists’ safety.
labor unions oppose removing Davis-Bacon regulations because thousands of construction
Fortunately, the private sector is introducing new
technological
innovations
in
workers
would
see
their
wages
fall1.
motor
vehicles, especially the driverless car, which
Policymakers
could
improve
will greatly improve the speed, reliability,
pricing, investment, operations, and safety
and safety of highway travel for all motorists.
by expeditiously implementing technologies developed by the private sector.
highway
New
A Brief Overview of Highway
general purpose technologies include global
Inefficiencies
positioning system (GPS) satellite navigation services that, among other things, collect
Substantial
economic
developed
under
have
information about motorists, such as their
and
location, speed, and alternative routings for
infrastructure
their journeys; Bluetooth signals that can be
because public policies have not been guided
detected to monitor the speed of cars and
by basic economic principles: prices do not
trucks through the road system in real time in
reflect social marginal costs, especially cars’
order to assist drivers’ route choice decisions
and trucks’ contributions to congestion and
and to adjust traffic signal timing; and mobile
delays and trucks’ contribution to pavement
software applications (apps) and websites that
damage; road investments are not based
provide motorists with real-time information
on cost-benefit analysis and have failed to
on traffic speeds and volumes, conditions on
maximize net benefits; and production costs
alternate routes, and available parking spaces.
are inflated by regulations. In addition,
Motorists are becoming increasingly aware
Congress broadly apportions federal highway
of the benefits of GPS services and the share
funds to states, instead of allocating those
of cars on the road that are equipped with
funds efficiently to specific locales to alleviate
those services is expected to climb from 10
the country’s most congested highways.
percent as of 2013 to 50 percent by 2015.
management
of
inefficiencies
public
ownership
highway
1. Davis-Bacon regulations stipulate that “prevailing wages”—interpreted in practice as “union wages”—be paid on any construction project receiving federal funds. The cost to taxpayers has been substantial. 2
Specific highway and vehicle technologies
of privatization.
However, given that no
include Weigh-in-Motion capabilities, which
general consensus about the social desirability
provide real-time information about truck weight
of highway privatization has developed,
and axle configurations that can be used by
it would be useful for policymakers, in
highway officials to set efficient pavement-wear
collaboration
charges and efficient enforcement for safety;
and users, to carefully design and execute
adjustable lane technologies, which allow
experiments to obtain evidence on its effects
variations in the number and width of lanes
before
with
considering
scholars,
practitioners,
nationwide
adoption.
in response to real-time traffic flows; improved road construction and design technologies
Private Sector Innovations in Motor
to increase pavement life and to strengthen
Vehicles
roads and bridges; and photo-enforcement technologies to monitor vehicles’ speeds to
Regardless of the state of their infrastructure,
improve traffic flow, capacity, and safety.
motor
vehicles’
has improved.
safety
and
performance
Automakers have continued
Because the Federal Highway Administration
to improve vehicle engines, designs, and
is biased toward the status quo in managing
structural strength, and have installed seat-
and
belts, anti-lock brakes, air bags, and the like.
operating
transportation
the
system,
nation’s it
has
highway failed
to
Recent safety innovations include electronic
implement those technologies in a timely
stability control, warning and emergency
manner. FHWA may also lack the expertise
braking systems, speed alerts, and mirrors with
to ensure that technologies to improve the
blind spot warnings, which will also increase
highway system are implemented effectively
road capacity by enabling vehicles to drive
and efficiently. Indeed, its budget allocates
closer together without compromising speed.
only a small amount of funds for research and development to improve highways. Like other
The recent revelation of “autonomous vehicles”
agencies, FHWA may be risk-averse and want
raises the possibility of an entirely new era
to avoid the mistakes and well-publicized
of highway transportation.
delays in implementing technology that, for
driverless cars and trucks do a human driver’s
example, have tarnished the Federal Aviation
normal job and much more. Driverless cars
Administration’s reputation to manage air traffic
are operated by computers that obtain
control effectively. Finally, FHWA may not stand
information from an array of sensors on the
to gain much from technology that reduces the
surrounding road conditions, including the
cost of building and maintaining highways if
location, speed, and trajectories of other
those savings lead to reductions in its budget.
cars.
The absence of evidence that extensive and
process information many times faster than the
costly government failure in highway policy
human mind can process it. By gathering and
is likely to be corrected by efficient reforms in
reacting immediately to real-time information,
the near future motivates serious consideration
and by eliminating concerns about risky human
Autonomous or
The on-board computers gather and
3
behavior, such as distracted and impaired
Empirical estimates of their benefits are sparse
driving, the technology has the potential to
but one study shows that they are highly
prevent collisions and greatly reduce highway
dependent on the speed of adoption and
fatalities, injuries, vehicle damage, and costly
extent of market penetration. Accounting for
insurance.
And it can significantly reduce
the reduction in fatalities and injuries, less
delays and improve travel-time reliability
vehicle damage, and savings in travel time,
by creating a smoother traffic flow and by
fuel, and parking costs, even a modest 10%
routing and, when necessary, rerouting drivers
penetration of driverless cars would generate
who have programmed their destinations.
annual benefits of $40 billion.
benefits amount to an eye-popping $200
Driverless trucks are also in the developmental
billion if market penetration reaches 50%.
Annual
stage. For example, dozens of such trucks are being used to haul materials in an iron-ore mine
Final Comments
in Australia and at other locations away from public thoroughfares. In addition to contributing
Driverless vehicles are inevitable and will
to improved traffic flows and motorists’ safety,
generate significant improvements in road travel
driverless trucks could benefit industry and
that certainly compensate for policymakers’
ultimately consumers by substantially reducing
failure to reform their policies to provide such
labor costs, insurance, and operating costs.
improvements. The major obstacle to motorists and firms from adopting driverless vehicles as
Thus
far,
states—including
soon as possible is whether the government
Nevada—have
will take prudent and expeditious approaches
legalized the testing of driverless cars, and
to help resolve important questions about
several other states are considering doing the
assigning liability in the event of an accident, the
same. Competition among automakers and
availability of insurance, and safety regulation.
other firms to develop the best technology
The National Highway and Traffic Safety
is already underway.
Google has logged
Administration (NHTSA), which is responsible
nearly 500,000 miles testing its version of
for regulating automobile safety, has issued
a driverless car; General Motors is working
cautious recommendations about driverless
on a model with researchers at Carnegie
cars. That may be appropriate at this stage of
Mellon University; Audi, BMW, Toyota, and
the vehicle’s development, but NHTSA should
Volvo have demonstrated their driverless
also be cautious about sharing FHWA’s legacy
models; and Nissan has claimed that it will
of not promoting timely innovation in highway
offer a full line of driverless cars in the next
travel that could greatly benefit the public.
California,
seven
U.S.
Florida,
and
decade. In short, some, admittedly optimistic, forecasts indicate that driverless cars could be a common sight on U.S. roads by 2025.
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References Winston, Clifford. 2013. “On the Performance of the U.S. Transportation System: Caution Ahead,” Journal of Economic Literature, volume 51(3), pp. 773-824. Winston, Clifford and Fred Mannering. 2014. “Implementing Technology to Improve Public Highway Performance: A Leapfrog Technology from the Private Sector is Going to be Necessary,” Economics of Transportation, forthcoming.
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February 2014 © 2014 New Cities Foundation www.newcitiesfoundation.org RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Please cite the work as follows: Clifford Winston (2014), “Improving Urban Mobility Through Technological Advance of Motor Vehicles ” in Cities on the Move, New Cities Foundation, Geneva. If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: “This translation was not created by the New Cities Foundation and should not be considered an official New Cities Foundation translation. The New Cities Foundation shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.” All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the New Cities Foundation: contact@newcitiesfoundation.org. Design and Layout: Rachel Dare.
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