MIND THE GAP

MIND THE GAP But Don’t Overlook the Other Side

by Alex Speier

T

he Red Sox farm system has been one of the most productive in baseball in recent years. The team has seen the steady addition of impact players from one year to the next over the past several seasons. Beginning with the addition of Kevin Youkilis to the Boston roster in 2004, the team has assumed an increasingly homegrown complexion.

Jonathan Papelbon made his debut in 2005, Dustin Pedroia and Jon Lester both emerged in 2006, Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz flashed onto the scene in 2007, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie both proved significant contributors in 2008, and Daniel Bard established his big league credentials in 2009. It has been a proud time for an organization that, despite its deep pockets, still views its scouting and player development pipeline as the basis of its sustainable long-term success.

Yet the 2010 season represents what might be considered a gap year. The emergence of homegrown players on the big league roster is unlikely to be quite as significant as it has been in the previous five campaigns. That reality, in turn, helped to shape an offseason in which the Sox filled out their bigleague roster with a group of free agents (John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre) and players acquired in trades (Jeremy Hermida).

“There are good players in the upper levels,” GM Theo Epstein said the day following his team’s elimination from the postseason. “There’s not the three or four obvious candidates to step in, guys we’re going to create jobs for this winter. But I think there will be those players in a year or two.

“I think the clear strength of our farm system is in a group of very

the Farm

DOWN ON THE FARM

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Lars Anderson had a down year in 2009 but could be one of the next members of the farm system to contribute to the big club. goals.

In this offseason, that balance meant finding a way to sign players who would allow the team to field a contender while also buying time for several prospects to conclude their development. In some respects, the Sox achieved a blueprint that was almost perfectly tailored to doing just that.

The short-term deals for the likes of Adrian Beltre (one-year with a player option), Marco Scutaro (two years with both a player and team option), and Mike Cameron (two years) gave the team a group of talented seat warmers. The Sox are hopeful that such players will allow them to sustain their playoff ambitions in the short term.

In the long term, however, the team remains committed to the idea that it has a group of minor leaguers who will be the core of the club’s future success, beginning in 2011 and extending for years after that.

Here is a look at the prospects to whom the Sox hope they have built a bridge this offseason:

PITCHERS Casey Kelly: 2008, 1st round: $3 million signing bonus.

ETA: 2011 Junichi Tazawa: 2008, International amateur free agent: $3.3 million, three-year big-league deal. ETA: 2011 Stolmy Pimentel: 2006, International amateur free agent: $25,000 signing bonus. ETA: 2012–13 Felix Doubront: 2004, International amateur free agent: $150,000 signing bonus. ETA: 2011 The Sox have a number of pitchers in their minor league system who are likely to contribute in some capacity at the major league level in the coming years. Richardson (2006, fifth round), Kyle Weiland (2008, third round), and Alex Wilson (2009, second

Photo on previous page: Billy Crowe/Greenville Drive Photo on this page: J. Meric/Getty Images

high-ceiling players that we feel great about, most of whom are about 18 to 20 years old. How we as an organization impact those players and help them with their development and reach their ceilings will be a hugely important factor in our success starting probably in about 2012 and beyond.”

The lack of impact, big league-ready talent at the top of the minors was in part a byproduct of the team’s shift in scouting emphasis. From 2003–05, in the first three drafts under Epstein, the Sox concentrated their picks on predictable college prospects.

Once the farm system had been filled with players who gave the Sox functional depth, however, the team diversified its approach. Starting in 2006, the amateur scouting department started shifting an increasing number of both picks and dollars to the high school ranks.

Now, entering the 2010 season, the effects of that transition are being felt. The 2006 draft has already yielded several college players who have reached the majors (Masterson, Bard, Josh Reddick, Dustin Richardson, Aaron Bates), with a couple of impressive prep selections (Lars Anderson, Ryan Kalish) lagging just a bit behind. Other high school selections from the drafts of 2007–09 are also on the big league horizon, most likely for 2011, 2012, and beyond.

That reality, in turn, led to one of the most noteworthy and misunderstood statements of the offseason. In the middle of the Winter Meetings, Epstein took stock of his team’s position and offered a metaphor that was accurate but polarizing.

“We’re in an interesting position, where we’re in kind of a bridge period,” he said in Indianapolis. “We like our young players a lot but they’re not going to immediately impact the organization. They’re still developing. They’re probably 2011, 2012 ETAs [in the majors for] a lot of them.

“We still think if we push some of the right buttons we can be competitive at the very highest level for the next two years but we don’t want to compromise too much of the future for that competitiveness during the bridge period. But we also don’t want to sacrifice our competitiveness during the bridge just for the future. So we’re just trying to balance both those issues “It can be done,” Epstein continued. “It’s hard. It’s sensitive. You expose yourself in certain areas. There are always vulnerabilities that come about. But if you get lucky it can be done.”

In many respects, this claim represented the same underlying philosophy that the Sox had articulated in the seven years (give or take a couple months) of Epstein’s tenure as general manager. The comment was not meant as a form of surrender that suggested the 2010 season would take a back seat to the future. Instead, it offered a reminder that the Sox believe in a constant balance of their short- and long-term

Mind the Gap round) all have the potential to be fast-tracked as relievers, and Michael Bowden and Stephen Fife (2009, third round) are good bets for the back of big league rotations some day.

But the core of the Red Sox’ starting prospects lies with Tazawa, Doubront, Pimentel and, foremost, Kelly.

Tazawa made his big league debut last year, his first as a professional. His arsenal is sufficiently diverse that he could become a back- or mid-rotation starter if his fastball velocity—which seemed reduced by the end the season—can hold in the low 90s.

Doubront’s season in Double A was overlooked. As a 21-year-old, he had the fourth-best ERA in the Eastern League (3.35) among pitchers with at least 100 innings.

Though Doubront’s command and pitch efficiency were up and down, he struck out 101 batters in 121 innings. His fastball ticked up to 94 mph at times, and he also features a swing-and-miss change-up and the possibility of an average curveball.

“He’s left-handed, he’s strong, his arm works well, he’s got three pitches, he throws strikes,” Sox assistant GM Ben Cherington noted during the season. “Those guys get to the big leagues.”

Pimentel’s potential is even brighter. He has a low-90s fastball that he commands well, along with a swing-and-miss change-up, and a curveball that could grade anywhere from average to above average. He spent a full year with Low A Greenville, going 10–7 with a 3.82 ERA and striking out 103 in 118 innings. The Sox have protected him in trade talks for some time, believing that he could be a contributor in their rotation by 2012.

Yet as bright as Pimentel’s future is, he has garnered nowhere near the attention Casey Kelly has. The Sox were thrilled when Kelly committed to a future as a pitcher this offseason. His excellent feel for and command of three pitches—a low-90s fastball, and an excellent curve and change-up—makes him fairly easy to project as a future #1 or #2 starter.

Kelly uses his four-seam fastball to get in on the hands of lefthanders and to throw down-and-away to righties.

He has a good sinking two-seam fastball, and his off-speed pitches—particularly given that he just turned 20 in October—are striking.

“He’s got an exceptional curveball. The first time I saw it, these guys went crazy when I said, ‘Well, hello darling,’”

The swing-and-miss stuff of Stolmy Pimentel (left) and Felix Doubront (right) has both on the fast track to the majors.

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CATCHERS Luis Exposito: 2005, 31st round: $150,000 signing bonus.

ETA: 2011 Tim Federowicz: 2008, 7th round: $150,000 signing bonus.

ETA: 2012 The Sox are still lacking superstar catching potential, but they have a pair of backstops who project as at least major league backups, and perhaps more, by 2011 or 2012.

Federowicz is the best defensive catcher in the organization. He receives raves for his game-calling and his ability to

Catcher Luis Exposito posted a .337/.371/.489 line in 23 games at Double A Portland in 2009.

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control an opponent’s running game (he amassed ridiculous pickoff numbers in Single A).

“Watching this guy behind the plate, running a game, he’s like a manager, always one pitch ahead,” said former Salem manager Chad Epperson. “They always say gamecalling is the last thing to come. He’s got that package here now. It puts him ahead of the game. It’s a huge tool for him.”

Federowicz also surprised with an extremely impressive start to the year as a hitter for Single A Greenville, where he hit .345/.393/.562/.955 (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) with ten homers, before a more modest performance in High A Salem (.257/.276/.390/.666 with four homers). If he hits enough, there is a growing view that Federowicz could be the Sox’ starting catcher of the future.

Exposito, meanwhile, impressed with the bat for Salem, Portland, and in the Arizona Fall League. He is a free swinger who hits for high averages, and his defense is viewed by evaluators as solid if unspectacular. At the least, he will be pushing for a role as a good backup in coming years, and could force consideration as a starter if he sustains his offense.

INFIELD 1B: Lars Anderson: 2006, 18th round: $825,000 signing bonus. ETA: 2011 1B: Anthony Rizzo: 2007, 6th round: $325,000 signing bonus.

ETA: 2013 SS: Jose Iglesias: 2009, International amateur free agent: $8.25 million, four-year major-league deal. ETA: 2012 A strange thing happened to the Sox prospect landscape in 2009. Lars Anderson was the consensus top talent in the farm system at the start of the year and many anticipated that he would be knocking on the door to the majors by midseason.

But Anderson remained stuck in Portland for all of his age21 season thanks to a dismal offensive year. He hit .233 with a .328 OBP, .345 slugging mark, and .673 OPS. His prospect status took an obvious hit, even as the Sox remain convinced that he has the plate approach to reclaim potential star status.

“Not every development path is linear. Not everyone goes level to level to level to level and gets to the big leagues and performs like [Jonathan Papelbon] did,” said farm director Mike Hazen. “We still don’t doubt the talent. We still feel like, and I definitely feel like, this guy’s still going to be an impact big leaguer.”

Yet Anderson’s struggles not only knocked him from his perch as the top Sox prospect, but also raised questions about whether he is even the team’s premier slugging first base prospect.

Anthony Rizzo emerged as one of the best prospects and best stories in the Sox system in 2009. After missing

Photo: DVM Sports

chuckled Salem pitching coach Dick Such. “Now I drop it on him when he throws an outstanding change-up. That’s been an exceptional pitch for him here, because it looks like his fastball but he’s got such a good feel for it.”

Kelly went 7–5 with a 2.08 ERA at two levels of A ball.

At least from a statistical standpoint, Kelly’s performance offered reminders of the impressive pro debuts of pitchers such as Rick Porcello and Zack Greinke.

The Sox brought Kelly to their January rookie development program and invited him to big league spring training, a reflection of their belief that he could be in the majors by the end of 2010 or in 2011. That timetable, in fact, played a part in Kelly’s decision.

“My development as a pitcher is obviously a lot further along than shortstop. It’s going to take a lot less time for me to impact the Boston Red Sox as a pitcher,” said Kelly. “Once we thought about that part of it, because getting to the big leagues is the main goal, it’s really a no doubter.”

Photo: Billy Crowe/Greenville Drive

Mind the Gap most of the previous season while being treated for nonHodgkins lymphoma, Rizzo returned in incredible shape for the 2009 season.

He earned a Sally League All-Star nod by hitting .298/.365/.494/.859 with nine homers for Greenville. Then, he nearly replicated those numbers after a July promotion to the High A Carolina League, hitting .295/.371/.420/.791 with three more bombs.

“He didn’t see the drop-off in plate discipline. He improved his on-base percentage when he went to Salem,” said farm director Mike Hazen. “Not only that, but we put Rizzo right in the middle of the lineup and he continued to produce.

I think that’s a pretty significant thing.”

Rizzo, who turned 20 in August, believes that some of his 37 doubles will turn into homers as he develops more “man strength.” Given his power potential, sound plate approach, and excellent defense, he combines with Anderson to give the Sox a couple of excellent long-term options at first base, with Anderson being a candidate for a starting role by 2011, and Rizzo—in a best-case scenario—having an opportunity to emerge in the majors by 2012.

The Red Sox stunned the baseball world by signing Iglesias to a four-year, $8.25 million, major league contract this past summer. There was a widespread belief that no one else planned on making a bid of nearly that amount.

That said, early returns on his performance in the Fall Instructional League and Arizona Fall League were strong. If Iglesias develops into an average to above-average starting shortstop for a few seasons, he will end up being a relative bargain.

His defense was compared by several international scouts to that of three-time Gold Glove winner Rey Ordonez. Of course, as one scout noted, “The question is whether he will hit like Ordonez,” who was a career .246/.289/.310/.600 hitter with just 12 homers in parts of nine big league seasons.

That said, others view Iglesias as having the ceiling of an Orlando Cabrera-type player, an aggressive hitter who can drive the ball to the gaps and who plays with a ton of energy on the field. More likely, the 19-year-old projects as somewhere in between those two views.

“We all know he signed for a lot of money. The question is if he’s worth it,” said Sox reliever Dustin Richardson, who played with Iglesias in the Arizona Fall League.

“There’s no doubt that, defensively, he’s big league ready, and ready to play shortstop in Boston. The question is with the stick. I think for the most part here, he’s held his own at the plate. He’s not hitting for power, but he’s scrappy. He gets his hits.”

Some talent evaluators—both with the Sox and other clubs—believe that he could turn into a .260 or .270 hitter in

Anothony Rizzo is an oustanding defensive first basemen, and if he continues to hit should get a shot in Boston before long. the majors with enough power to generate 10–15 homers a year, and an OPS in perhaps the mid-.700s (the average AL shortstop in 2009 hit .274/.329/.391/.719).

If Iglesias does that in tandem with well above-average defense, he would represent a very useful everyday player.

Though the Sox will let his spring training performance dictate where he makes his pro debut in 2010, he is another candidate to be ready for the majors by 2012. That, in part, explains why the team viewed Scutaro as a good fit on a two-year deal.

OUTFIELD Josh Reddick: 2006, 17th round: $140,000 signing bonus.

ETA: 2011 Ryan Kalish: 2006, 9th round: $600,000 signing bonus.

ETA: 2011 Ryan Westmoreland: 2008, 5th round: $2 million signing bonus. ETA: 2013 For some in the Red Sox system, the departure of Jason Bay to the Mets represented a significant opportunity. Because the organization did not commit to him on a four-year deal, the door remains open for a player from the farm system to claim left field. That, coupled with the fact that J.D. Drew will finish his five-year deal in 2011, offers Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick a glimpse of what could be.

Reddick and Kalish represent an interesting pairing, along the lines of Anderson and Rizzo at first base. The two

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Ryan Kalish has a great command of the strike zone and his power began to blossom at Portland in 2009. outfielders, both taken in the middle rounds of the 2006 draft, have shown the well-rounded games needed to be legitimate candidates for starting jobs with the Sox. Reddick has long been an aggressive swinger with a rare ability to drive pitches all over the field. The lanky 23-yearold generates surprising whip, with 20–25 homer power being a legitimate aspiration. He made noteworthy strides with his plate discipline in 2009, thanks in part to mandated patience from Double A manager Arnie Beyeler, who made Reddick take the first pitch of every at bat and installed him as a leadoff hitter to give him an on-base mentality.

Reddick excelled in Portland (.277/.352/.520/.871), but failed to sustain those numbers during time in Triple A (.127/.190/.183/.373) and in the majors (.169/.210/.339/.549).

Even so, many in the organization believe that he could be pushing for a major league role by the end of the 2010 season.

Kalish is not far behind, albeit with a very different approach. He shows an advanced command of the strike zone, rarely chasing pitches. Kalish will turn 22 just before the start of this season. After his power was sapped in 2008 as he recovered from off-season surgery to repair a broken hamate bone in his wrist, Kalish demonstrated significant thump in 2009.

He started the year in High A and hammered Carolina League pitching, hitting .304/.434/.513/.947. His five homers

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in 115 at bats for Salem matched his full-season total (in 433 at bats) from 2008. Promoted to Double A Portland in May, Kalish struggled initially, ending the month hitting just .133/.212/.233/.445. From that point through the end of the season, he rebounded to put up tremendous numbers, hitting .301 with 12 homers.

“I’ve heard it from a million people: ‘We think we can get power out of you,’” said Kalish. “Until this year, I never really thought it would actually happen. It was an awesome surprise to add it to my game.”

Kalish, a high school football star, has a huge, powerful frame. Though he moves well enough to play center field now, it remains an open question whether he might have to shift to a corner. Even so, his combination of athleticism, baseball instincts, and plate approach (also evident in his 21 steals in 27 chances) has made for an interesting debate about whether he or Reddick is the better outfield prospect.

Longer term, however, neither is the best outfield prospect in the Sox system. That honor would go to Ryan Westmoreland. Westmoreland was viewed as a tremendous talent when he was eligible for the 2008 draft, but the outfielder also appeared to have an ironclad commitment to Vanderbilt University. The Sox were perceived as the only team with a shot to sign the Rhode Island native, and a $2 million bonus did the trick. By the time he signed, the team considered him one of the ten best players in the 2008

Ryan Westmoreland is seen by many as the best prospect in the Red Sox minor league system.

Mind the Gap draft, and thus far, the 19-year-old has looked the part.

Westmoreland is seen as a dazzling, five-tool talent who has been compared by some evaluators to Grady Sizemore.

In his first pro season, he stood out while playing for the Lowell Spinners.

“The ball makes a different sound off his bat,” one evaluator noted of the player who hit .296 with a .401 OBP, .484 slugging mark, .885 OPS, seven homers, and 19 steals in as many chances, primarily against older competition.

The chief concern about Westmoreland to this point in his career has been health. He required surgery on a torn labrum late in 2008, a procedure that prevented him from playing the outfield until the end of the year. Then, when Westmoreland did finally get a chance to play center field with Lowell, he suffered a season-ending broken collarbone while crashing into an outfield fence. The surgery to repair the fracture has been called a success by the Sox. The biggest impact on his development last year was that he played just eight games in the field (after spending most of the first two months of the season at Lowell as the designated hitter). But Westmoreland had plenty of at bats, and the Sox are confident that he will be able to make up for lost time in the outfield.

“All he lost last year from a playing time standpoint was spring training, the last week of the season [when he broke his clavicle], and instructional league,” said Hazen. “The outfield time we can make up for easily. The at bats, he didn’t lose a ton in the grand scheme of things. I don’t think this impairs [his development] at all.”

Photo: Jim Rogash/Getty Images Sports

THE FUTURE The Red Sox’ offseason proved noteworthy, in the end, not only for the pieces that were added but also for the ones that were not subtracted. In John Lackey, Beltre, Scutaro, and Cameron, the club acquired players it believes are capable of contributing to a contender in 2010.

At the same time, by swimming almost solely in free agent waters this winter, the Sox did not have to dip into their reserve of top prospects. In that sense, the team addressed its short-term needs while at the same time doing nothing to jeopardize its long-term outlook.

If that model works, then the Sox will indeed have created a stable passage from one group of talents to the next.

That, in turn, would represent the fulfillment of the goal that was at the heart of Boston’s winter blueprint.

“I probably regret ever saying the word bridge,” Epstein mused towards the conclusion of the offseason. “What I meant was, we’ve been a good team, we’ve been to the playoffs six out of seven years, we’ve had a certain core in place, we’ve won 95 games six out of seven years, and I know we’re

With a stocked minor league system the future is certainly bright for Theo Epstein, Terry Francona, and the Red Sox. going to be good when I’m projecting into the future, players we really like in our farm system. Our pre-prime players will still be in their prime.

“The building blocks are still in place to have a really strong foundation going forward, starting in a couple of years.

The question was, how are we going to maintain competitiveness at the highest level this year, 2010, 2011. That’s why it was a bit of a bridge. A bridge from one pretty good team to what we project will be another pretty good team. How to get there without hamstringing the future, while maintaining competitiveness at the highest level.

“I don’t think we signed a contract that’s going to hamstring us long term, in free agency or with our ability to retain our own players. You add it all together, if the players we got who we like on short-term deals perform, and the young players that we project to be potential stars in our minor league system develop, we have a chance to be good during this transition period, and also during the future. We look to try to serve our short-term and long-term interests all the time, and that’s what this offseason was all about.” MSP

Alex Speier covers the Red Sox for WEEI.com and Baseball America. The 2010 season will be his ninth on the Red Sox beat. Prior to that line of work, he worked as a travel writer in such exotic locales as the former East Germany, South Africa, and Cleveland.

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