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The drivers towards change Over 90% of road transport uses petroleum oil-based fuels whilst air transport is 100% dependent on such products. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predict that by 2020 the majority of new cars will be sold outside the OECD and that all of the rise in oil demand to 2035 will originate from the transport sector in countries with developing economies. By this time China will become the largest importer of oil (and coal) and the global vehicle fleet will double to 1.7 billion vehicles China and India both have consumption-to-reserves ratios which are similar to the EU and the US. Concerns regarding security of energy supply in the transport sector are thus acute. The financial implications are huge: at an average oil price of
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$100/barrel the EU and the US each transfer $350 billion (every year) outside their borders in order to satiate their thirst for oil. This situation is exacerbated by the on-going reduction in resource diversity. Up to the early 1970s Western investor-owned oil companies controlled - directly or indirectly - almost all of the world’s oil production and reserves. In 2006 companies owned or claimed by their national governments controlled 80% of global oil reserves, with a further 14% controlled by Russian companies and joint ventures between Western and national oil companies. Western investor-owned companies controlled only the remaining 6% outright. Current global production of
87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in existing fields is declining to the extent that by 2035 a gross capacity increase of 47 mb/d, equal to twice the current total production of the middle-eastern OPEC counties, is required simply to stand still. These considerations of securing future supply should alone suffice to incentivise the development of an integrated sustainable energy system in which transport plays a key role. When combined with the imperative of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the motivations to seek solutions based on 100% renewable energy are compelling.