2. Summary Joseph Lu, Chair of the IFoA’s Mortality Research Steering Committee Despite dramatic advancement in medical sciences and healthcare in recent decades, we are still not immune to pandemics. A pandemic can be deadly and costly, as shown in the 1918 Spanish flu which killed more than 50 million people and cost the insurance sector about £13 billion worldwide in today’s money. At the time of writing this Longevity Bulletin, the World Health Organisation (WHO) warns of global outbreaks including Ebola (27,609 cases with 11,261 deaths), MERS-CoV (186 cases with 36 deaths), and Avian Influenza H7N9 (15 cases with 3 deaths) (WHO, 2015). With these outbreaks and increasing global travel, the risk of pandemic cannot be ignored. In this bulletin we have a selection of four articles written by experts from different disciplines to reflect current thinking on various aspects of the modelling, nature and mitigation of pandemic risk. Pandemic risk modelling plays an important role in risk management and assessment of regulatory capital requirements in the insurance sector. Our modelling expert advocates a good understanding of current environment, drivers and process of deadly infection in modelling. This bulletin also offers ideas to deal with future uncertainty that might otherwise lead to severe operational challenges. For illustration, we have included case studies on Spanish flu, HIV/AIDS and Ebola virus. They demonstrate the complexity of infectious diseases as they differ in origin, mode of transmission and impact on populations. The UK government has policies and plans to deal with future pandemics. A range of interventions such as hygiene measures, social-distancing and vaccines are available to fight infection in the population. Recent advances in big data capability and social media data, when combined with genomics and spatial information, should provide notably quicker information flows to help minimise the spread of infection and facilitate faster treatments.
Despite these contingency plans, pandemic risk is being fuelled by global trends such as increased international travel, urbanisation and immune-deficiency due to disease or ageing. On the other hand, governments can fight contagions with vaccination, international surveillance and improved hygiene. These changes in the pandemic ‘landscape’ make the actuary’s modelling task particularly challenging. The actuarial community can add notable value by helping our stakeholders understand the risk and impact of pandemics, through modelling based on the latest scientific research.
World Health Organization (2015). Avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. Available at: www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/influenza_h7n9/en/ World Health Organization (2015). MERS-CoV. Available at: www.who.int/emergencies/mers-cov/en/ World Health Organization (2015). Ebola. Available at: www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/
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