The Future Ain't What It Used To Be

THE FUTURE AIN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE

Designing for a Changed Climate

The very act of trying to look ahead to discern possibilities and offer warnings is in itself an act of hope.

OCTAVIA BUTLER

THE FUTURE AIN’T WHAT IT USED TO BE

Designing for a Changed Climate

Kate Sector, Matt Cooper, Ben Hartigan

ABSTRACT

The architecture of Lake|Flato has always been a response to an informed understanding of the particular site, including a comprehensive assessment of historic climate data. With the advent of global climate change, however, we and architects generally must begin to integrate climate projections into our designs and provide for resilience to the impacts of climate change. This investigation provides a process for analyzing these potential climate impacts at a given site, communicating these with our clients, and assessing specific tactics for addressing each. Also included are case studies of Lake|Flato projects that have included climate resilience in the design process.

KEYWORDS

Resilience, Climate, Site Analysis, Adaptability, Climate Change

INTRODUCTION

Lake|Flato Architects has always believed that architecture must respond to its site. Our design process begins with an understanding of the specific place and its context. We walk the land to see firsthand how it feels to be there, learn the ways in which it’s been used in the past, and gather historic climate data to know which way the winds blow and how cold the winters will be. This process has helped to shape a portfolio of projects that anticipate and respond to local conditions.

With the advent of global climate change, however, there is now a need to consider not only the past and present of a site, but also a future, one that will include higher temperatures, sea level rise, extreme weather, and less predictable weather patterns. These impacts in turn will threaten biodiversity, human health, infrastructural stability, and food, water, and shelter security. The economic impacts of property damage, population displacement, and business disruptions will be substantial, and will be spread across all levels of society and governance.

It’s a lot to account for. As architects, we are already expected to synthesize a great number of conditions into our designs – even more so now with the expectations for sustainability and energy efficiency – and adding a working knowledge of climate change to our brief only increases this burden.

It is this challenge that leads to the research question we seek to address in this paper:

How can Lake|Flato expand upon its already comprehensive understanding of site to include the future impacts of climate change and then incorporate that knowledge into its designs to create buildings that are resilient to these changes?

Our goal here is to provide: compelling reasons why both architects and building owners should consider climate risk in the design of buildings; guidance on the process of setting resilience goals; an assessment of available tools for identifying climate risk to a specific site; and a matrix of architectural and systems responses to a range of potential impacts on buildings, organized by type of threat. These are supplemented with several case studies of Lake|Flato projects that have incorporated site climate risk analysis and resilient design.

The focus of this research project is limited to those impacts expected from climate change. There are other threats of course, such as earthquakes, societal upheaval, crime, public health, and others. These should be included in any complete description of resilience but are outside of the scope of this document. Nonetheless, some of the tactics included will be applicable to events not driven by climate change, and the individual designer can make that determination.

Confluence Park, located at the confluence of the San Antonio River and San Pedro Creek, the idea of confluence is ingrained in every aspect— from big gestures like the landform of the park representing the convergence of ecotypes in the South Texas region, to the pavilion “petals” imitating the form of plants that are structured to funnel dew and rainwater to their roots, down to the scale of the paver patterns reminiscent of the flow and confluence of waterways.

Design in all its facets should be woven into our daily lives. We all must seek to build healthy communities and welcoming places that are intrinsically rooted and responsive to local culture, climate, and context with a vision for respecting diverse perspectives.

DAVID LAKE, FAIA AND TED FLATO, FAIA

DEFINITIONS

Acronyms

AIA – American Institute of Architects

BFE – Base Flood Elevation

COTE – Committee on the Environment

EPA – Environmental Protection Agency

FEMA – Federal Emergency Management Agency

ICC – International Code Council

IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (an intergovernmental body of the United Nations)

NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

WUI – Wildland Urban Interface

Adaptation

The adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

(IPCC)

Disaster

Severe alterations in the normal functioning of a community or a society due to hazardous physical events interacting with vulnerable social conditions, leading to widespread adverse human, material, economic, or environmental effects that require immediate emergency response to satisfy critical human needs and that may

Resilience

The ability of a system and its component parts to anticipate, absorb, accommodate, or recover from the effects of a hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner, including through ensuring the preservation, restoration, or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions. (IPCC)

Resilient Architecture

An approach to creating buildings and spaces that can withstand and adapt to various stressors, including natural disasters, climate change, and social disruptions. Resilient design aims to minimize the negative impacts of these challenges and maximize the ability of buildings and communities to recover and adapt.

Vulnerability

The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. (IPCC)

SELECTED SOURCES

Climate Impacts

IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – 2022

This report assesses scientific, technical, and socioeconomic information concerning climate change. This report focuses on The Physical Science Basis, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, and Mitigation of Climate Change.

The Uninhabitable Earth – David Wallace-Wells, 2019

This book covers the various climate change impacts on human health including heat Death, Hunger, Wildfire, Unbreathable Air, and others. This is a good source for compelling statistics and vivid descriptions of what to expect.

State Climate Summaries 2022 (ncics.org)

NOAA Cooperative Institute for Satellite Earth System Studies (CISESS). The summaries, organized by state, cover historical climate variations and trends, future climate model projections of climate conditions, and past and future conditions of sea level and coastal flooding.

Resiliency

Understanding Resilience – American Institute of Architects, 2020

Defines mitigation, resilience, adaptation, sustainability, and regenerative design, clarifying the characteristics of each strategy as well as the nuances of hazard, risk, and vulnerability.

THE CASE FOR RESILIENT DESIGN FOR ARCHITECTS

The reasons for the architectural profession to include climate change in their design parameters are similar to why we already consider historic climate data, and include professional, environmental, and ethical imperatives.

Professional Responsibility to Clients

The Standard of Care is a subjective metric that measures an architect’s performance, skill, and care in providing services that meet a client’s requirements and objectives. It includes the expectation that architects will design based on what’s viable for a given site, whether legally, topographically, or climatically. As the impacts of climate change on the built environment become more widely acknowledged, incorporation of resilient design measures into our designs will increasingly be expected. Rather than wait for that expectation to show up in the courtroom, architects and designers should take on this responsibility now.

An important caveat to this goal, however, is that architects can, by designing for climate resilience, increase our exposure to professional liability claims. It may seem counterintuitive but, by performing our services beyond the Standard of Care, we as architects may be exceeding what is covered by our professional liability insurance. Architects can mitigate this risk by, among other things:

• Contractually limiting our financial exposure to insurance proceeds.

• Avoid providing quantifiable projections of risk (e.g.

‘the sea level will be two to four feet higher here in thirty years’) and instead only offer general projections, such as ‘the sea level here will rise significantly over the next thirty years.’

• Clearly defining our scope of work relative to resilience and by avoiding the promise of specific outcomes. Architects cannot promise a perfectly resilient building in the face of a volatile and changing climate.

• Engaging clients in conversations about the identified climate risks and which are and are not addressed in the design and documenting these conversations.

The AIA provides a number of resources related to professional risk and climate resilience; see the appendix for more information.

Professional Obligations to the Environment

The AIA Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct provides members with guidelines for professional conduct in several areas, including Canon VI – Obligations to the Environment. Within this is an Ethical Standard which states, “Members should incorporate adaptation strategies with their clients to anticipate extreme weather events and minimize adverse effects on the environment, economy and public health.” (Emphasis added.) Including this consideration in our designs is part of fulfilling our ethical requirement to “serve the public interest.”

Leadership

Lake|Flato has a demonstrated record of professional leadership, achieving both design excellence and high environmental standards in the firm’s built works. A natural expansion of this role, one that will emphasize our standing as a firm that looks to the future, is a proactive approach to climate resilience. The architectural and regulatory language around this topic is still being written, and firms that assert their positions now will have an opportunity to share authorship of a new form of design.

Performance

Performance, in the context of sustainability, is commonly understood to mean a building that uses as little energy and is as environmentally benign as possible. Resilience is less likely to be included in these conversations. However, by creating a building that can resist natural disasters and remain standing, the environmental impacts (embodied carbon in particular) of demolition and reconstruction are avoided.

What’s not widely understood by the public and designers is that the building code is written to provide life safety, not resilience for the structure. A code-compliant building is one that gives occupants a reasonable amount of time to escape but makes no allowance for whether or not the building itself can be repaired or if it will need to be torn down. To be resilient, a building will necessarily exceed the requirements of the building code.

SELECTED SOURCES

Sustainable Design: An Ethical Imperative, American Institute of Architects

Tips for discussing the ethical imperative for sustainable design, the AIA Code of Ethics, and standard of care.

The Lodge at Gulf State Park disturbs less than 15 acres and is set back over 100 feet further inland to promote a healthier, more resilient dune ecosystem.

THE CLIENT-FOCUSED CASE FOR RESILIENT DESIGN

Introduction

Conversations with clients about the risks of climate change can be challenging and the subject has become increasingly politicized in recent years. Regardless, concerns about the impacts seem to be more accepted, and a case can be made that resilience is a prudent approach, even without agreement as to what the underlying causes are for a given natural disaster.

It’s in everyone’s interest that our built environment be durable and resilient, especially for those who make considerable investments in the design and construction of a new structure, whatever its purpose. What follows is a more detailed discussion of the various reasons why a building owner may decide to integrate resilience into their project.

The People in the Building

Buildings are fundamentally shelters, designed to keep out the elements, provide protection, and respond to day-to-day human needs and priorities. Architects design buildings to be waterproof, wind- and fire-resistant, and secure against intruders. Whether the occupants are us, our employees, or the public, the building’s designers, owners, and builders have a responsibility to fulfill the requirement to provide shelter not only from the weather we’ve expected in the past but also from what’s anticipated in the future.

Beyond physical safety, both business and residential tenants are likely to start evaluating a potential lease in terms of, for example, how well the space is going to

weather the next 100-year storm and if they are at risk of flooding. A business tenant considering leasing space in a building that’s been designed with climate change in mind will probably be comforted by the reduced chance of an interruption to their operations.

Driving around to seek shelter during or immediately after a natural disaster is often a risky proposition. A building that has some additional capacity for sustaining its occupants for those first hours and days after an event can help to reduce the burden on first responders by not adding to the victims in need of aid.

A business that experiences even just five days of disruption of normal operations is at a 90% risk of failure, and some 40% of businesses don’t reopen after a natural disaster.

US SMALL BUSINESS ASSOCIATION

The People Outside the Building

Beyond self-preservation is the consideration of one’s neighbors. If some capacity to support displaced or otherwise impacted people from the surrounding community is included in the design, then a resilient building can absorb some of the demand for shelter, potable water, and communication that can become so critical after a significant natural disaster. Even a singlefamily home can include the ability to provide shelter to the family next door.

Limitations of the Building Code

As architects we are often inclined to build beyond what’s required by the building code, whereas clients may not always see the value of this approach and instead, for reasons of economy, feel that a code-compliant building is good enough. It is important for clients to understand that a building that meets code may well have to be torn down after a disaster, and also that the code doesn’t protect a business’ continuity of operations.

The building code bases its requirements for structural and thermal performance on historic weather data but doesn’t yet fully consider how a changing climate will affect these minimum standards. By looking ahead, the client can get a building that will better survive disaster events and with less disruption to its tenants.

Economic Considerations

The disruption to daily operations that results from even somewhat minor damage to a building can be significant.

Product workflows may need to be reconfigured, merchant income can be interrupted, students may need to be relocated to temporary classrooms, and apartment residents housed elsewhere while repairs are made.

The direct costs related to fixing a damaged building are bad enough, but the indirect costs related to loss of operational continuity can be even greater. A building that has resilience incorporated into its design and construction will be far less likely to trigger disruption of its tenants.

In addition, a resilient building will be less expensive to restore after the storm clouds have cleared. Depending on the nature of the event and the construction of the building, repairs might be minimal and ideally not essential to resume occupancy and operations.

Secondary impacts from a natural disaster can include shortages of both the materials and contractors needed to repair buildings and restore normal operations. The permitting processes will probably also be overburdened and can compound delays. Not having to immediately repair one’s building means not being in competition for these limited resources.

A common misconception is that the state and federal funding that becomes available after an event is sufficient to cover the costs of repairs, however this is not always the case. These funds are often not as generous or as quickly distributed as needed and are subject to approval processes, loan caps, and potentially lengthy processing timelines.

Insurance may be a more quickly accessed source of funding, however, it has its limits. Property insurance will pay for repairs but does not cover continuity of business operations or loss of rental income to a property owner. Business risk insurance will help with these costs, but the less reliant one is on an insurance policy, the more nimbly one can resume business as usual. It’s reasonable to think that the security of renting in a resilient building could translate to a somewhat higher market value for the owner. Beyond the benefits during and after a natural disaster, a building that’s made tough enough to resist a severe storm, for example, will also be more durable to the slower wear and tear of wind and rain, with likely lower ongoing maintenance costs.

Sustainability

Sustainable building design is typically focused on questions of reduced energy use and embodied carbon, and resilient design strategies can dovetail nicely with these goals. For example, a building insulated only to code minimums will quickly become unlivable if the power goes out during a heat event or a winter storm as the inside temperature reaches equilibrium with the outside temperature. On the other hand, a thermally-snug building that is slow to lose or gain heat can be occupied for much longer during a power outage.

Another less quantifiable but still important element of sustainability is longevity. This manifests itself in architectural integrity, as well as in the building’s ability to resist both acute and chronic weathering impacts. If the building can adapt to a changed local climate, then it may not need to be replaced and the energy to do so will not be expended.

SELECTED SOURCES

Sustainable Design: An Ethical Imperative – American Institute of Architects

This AIA article covers tips for discussing the ethical imperative for sustainable design, the AIA Code of Ethics, and the standard of care.

Respondents to the GRPS rank ‘climate action failure’ as the number one long-term threat to the world and the risk with potentially the most severe impacts over the next decade.

THE GLOBAL RISKS REPORT 2022; WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM

RESILIENT DESIGN PROCESS SUMMARY

The process described below is intended to facilitate a proactive response to climate change through the use of selected climate analysis tools, best practices for communicating this information with clients, and a list of specific design strategies for different climate threats.

The proposed process is built around three steps: Analysis, Communication, and Design.

Step 1: Analysis

An analysis of potential climate threats to the site using the listed tools and resources, one that considers both regional impacts as well as those that will affect the specific property.

Step 2: Communication

The second step is the communication of these findings to the client, ensuring that they are informed of the potential impacts of climate change on their buildings and site. Working together, the architect and the client can develop agreed-upon goals for resilience and incorporate these into the program.

Step 3: Design

The final step is the selection of appropriate design strategies based on the client’s resiliency goals and the nature and severity of the identified threats. As with any other aspect of the design, this will be iterative and evolve with changes to budget and program.

The following pages go into greater detail and provide resources for each of these.

A selection of case studies showcasing successful implementation of this process is included below, showing various building types, locations, and vulnerabilities, and providing deeper insight into how these case studies communicated resilience throughout their design process with clients, potentially providing useful templates for designers to follow.

SELECTED SOURCES

AIA Resilient Project Process Guide – AIA , June 2022

Produced by the AIA; covers why architects need to incorporate resiliency strategies in their design and how to integrate resilience throughout a project’s design.

Resilience Design Toolkit, AIA and HKS

Specifically developed for architects to understand the steps to coordinate resilience studies for a project and a general method to integrate resilience design thinking into a design process.

AIA Resilience Course

Multi-course series that covers mitigation, resilience and adaptation, technical design application, and design process application.

AIA Austin Resilience Guide: Exhibit A - Top 5 Recommendations and Associated Resources

Guidance on for how to go about assessing your buildings’ climate risks. Includes a seven-step process and links to other resources.

Design for Integration: AIA Framework for Design Excellence

The Framework for Design Excellence represents the defining principles of good design in the 21st century. It includes a section on how to create a thoughtful process that delivers both beauty and performance in balance.

STEP 1 – ANALYSIS

For the designer working to predict what the effects of climate change may be at a specific site, the process is one of analysis at increasingly finer scales, starting at a global or regional level and ending up at the specific building site.

It is well known what will happen at the global scale and the science behind this understanding is robust. The average temperature of the planet will continue to get warmer, CO2 levels will continue to increase, and sea levels will rise. Each of these will lead to a cascading series of impacts at a variety of scales.

At a regional scale, certain threats are common to many North American sites, including flooding of various kinds, heat and extreme heat events, and the direct and indirect impacts of wildfires. Any analysis will likely identify at least one of these as an area of concern.

At a local level, one can expect utility disruptions, flooding (surface, riverine, and coastal), wildfires, and extreme heat and cold events, among other impacts. Many locations will fall within the scope of a local hazard mitigation plan or climate action plan. These are usually developed at the county or city scale and can be an excellent resource for information about what vulnerabilities the project should address, given their local authorship.

Determining what might happen at a given site requires some informed guesswork and consideration of the larger environmental context. Flood maps should be consulted and interpreted conservatively, as should the terrain, local vegetation types and density, utilities, roadway and driveway access, distances from nearest population

centers, capacity of local first responders, and any other vulnerabilities particular to the site.

It’s important to remember that a complete risk assessment must consider both the direct and indirect impacts of a given event. For example, a wooded slope may be denuded by a wildfire and then later be subject to mudslides when the rains come. The mudslides may wash out roadways and take down utility poles, isolating the site from emergency services and other needed resources and causing building systems such as well pumps and space conditioning to stop operating. An unheated building is then susceptible to frozen and/or burst pipes and significant water damage as a result.

Climate change impacts and risks are becoming increasingly complex and more difficult to manage. Multiple climate hazards will

occur simultaneously, and multiple climatic and non-climatic risks

will

interact, resulting in compounding overall risk and risks cascading across sectors and regions.

[IPCC 6: Summary for Policymakers Headline Statements]

There is a rapidly-narrowing window of opportunity to enable climate-resilient development.

IPCC WG2 REPORT

ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY FOR IDENTIFYING VULNERABILITIES

GENERAL TIPS

Resilience Design Toolkit

The Resilience Design Toolkit is a resilience design guide specifically developed for architects to understand the steps to coordinate resilience studies for a project and a general method to integrate resilience design thinking into a design process. Step three covers identifying the risks and vulnerabilities.

GENERAL CLIMATE INFORMATION

Access Data from Creating Resilient Water Utilities: US EPA

Allows one to enter an address and it provides historical and projected data on climate, climate grid, streamflow, hurricane track, and coastal gauge. It is ideal for more indepth research.

Autodesk Spacemaker

This tool allows you to analyze site conditions such as wind, acoustics, comfort and more for a concept design.

CBE Clima Tool

This is a free online interactive tool that looks at historic climate data analysis and provides a variety of climate graphics. After inputting a project location, it will provide a climate summary for temperature, humidity, sun, etc. It does not include future climate conditions.

Climate Consultant

A desktop app that interprets weather data into a psychrometric chart and provides passive design solutions at the end of each analysis. The solutions link to the 2030 palette, a valuable source for passive design strategies.

Ecoregions 2017

The Ecoregions Map and Database is an online tool that shows the ecoregion your project is located in and links to detailed information about the region. This tool is helpful in understanding the broader region you are designing in and the plants and animals that can be found there.

Working Group II Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The most comprehensive and thoroughly researched source available for understanding the global impacts of climate change, the current state of adaptation measures, and climate resilient development. In most cases, it will be much more than is needed but is useful as a source document.

GENERAL FUTURE CLIMATE Climate Explorer

This interactive free online tool shows past, (1961-1990), current, and future (2035-2064) climate trends. The tool focuses on temperature, precipitation, storms, extreme heat, sea level rise and provides the top climate concerns for the selected location.

CREAT

The CREAT tool (Climate Change Scenarios Projection Map), created by the EPA, provides climate scenarios projection maps (2035 and 2060) on temperature, precipitation, storms, extreme heat, sea level and other resources. It is limited to the U.S. Includes additional resources related to resilient strategies and general climate change.

Temperate

This online app looks at climate adaptation and provides top hazards based on an input location. It provides a very thorough list of potential impacts. Note: It is not free, but has a trial option.

What will climate feel like in 60 years?

With this online tool, you can select the nearest US city to you and then one of two emission levels (current high emissions and reduced emissions). The results show you what city your project’s city may feel like in 60 years. You can also do a climate summary of various locations. Created by University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science - Appalachian Lab.

GENERAL HAZARD ASSESSMENT TOOLS

Climate Resilience Report Generator

This is a free online tool created by Argonne National Laboratory where you select a point on a map and ClimRR generates a report that provides a snapshot of climate projections. You can also view over 100 different climate visualizations in an interactive map.

National Risk Index

The National Risk Index is a new, online mapping application from FEMA that identifies communities most at risk to 18 natural hazards. This application visualizes natural hazard risk metrics and includes data about expected annual losses from natural hazards, social vulnerability and community resilience.

Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool (RAPT)

RAPT is an online GIS mapping created by the Federal Emergency Management Agency that allows you to layer various impacts including historical hurricane tracks, flood hazards, historic tornado tracks, severe weather watches and warnings, sea level rise (4/5/6 feet options), seismic, and demographic data. It also includes live data on stream gauges, weather radar, NWS data, current wildfire.

Risk Factor

Risk Factor is a free online tool that assesses flood, fire, wind, air quality and heat risks on a scale of 1 to 10 and their associated impacts based on location. It provides a simple summary and graphic comparison to the surrounding area, with a Pro version available for purchase.

Storm Events Database

The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Storm events database allows you to view historic data. Providing a narrative of information on storm events and cost of damage.

FLOODS / SEA LEVEL ASSESSMENT TOOLS

When Rising Seas Hit Home

An online free tool created by Union of Concerned Scientists which provides a series of Interactive map of coastal flooding risk that includes areas of chronic inundation, communities at risk, added risk, properties at risk.

NOAA costal flood explorer - Coastal Flood Exposure Mapper (noaa.gov)

From the overview: “This online visualization tool supports communities that are assessing their coastal hazard risks and vulnerabilities. The tool creates a collection of userdefined maps that show the people, places, and natural resources exposed to coastal flooding. The maps can be saved, downloaded, or shared to communicate flood exposure and potential impacts.”

Sea Level Rise Viewer - Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts (noaa.gov)

This is an online free tool that provides data and maps to illustrate the scale of potential flooding from sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts.

Flood Maps | FEMA.gov

Landing page that leads to many other resources for mapping, insurance, etc.

Hazus | FEMA.gov

This free software “provides standardized tools and data for estimating risk from earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, and hurricanes”.

Neighborhoods at Risk

Interactive maps, charts, and resources to help communities identify neighborhoods that may be more impacted by climate change.

SOCIOECONOMIC TOOLS

Headwaters Economics

The Economic Profile System is a free, easy-to-use tool that provides access to 17 socioeconomic reports. Customized reports are available for U.S. communities, counties, and states.

WILDFIRE ASSESSMENT TOOLS

Wildfire Risk to Communities

Wildfire Risk to Communities is a free, easy-to-use website with interactive maps, charts, and resources to help communities understand, explore, and reduce wildfire risk. It provides a quantitative evaluation of risk and includes risk to homes, likelihood, exposure, and also vulnerability of population based on social and economic factors.

STEP 2 – COMMUNICATION WITH CLIENTS

When communicating the importance of resiliency and future climate trends to clients, architects and designers can consider the following best practices, below. Note that it is critical that the outcomes of this step, i.e. the agreedupon approach to resilience, be documented carefully and incorporated into the client’s program.

Define the building’s purpose and tailor the message

Understand your client’s unique goals, needs, and values. Clarify their project’s purpose and discuss how potential environmental risks could disrupt these goals and explain how climate resilience could address these risks while aligning with other goals, such as reducing operational costs, ensuring occupant safety, or demonstrating environmental stewardship.

Communication tone and timing

Attempt to avoid over-emphasizing the existential nature of climate change. Rather than focusing on the negative, frame the discussion as opportunities for innovation, resiliency, and proactive action. Integrate research and resilient solutions throughout the presentation instead of front-loading or saving it for the end, which may overwhelm the client. This will ensure that the focus remains on showcasing a beautiful design.

Avoid using technical jargon

Avoid uncommon or complex scientific language. Instead, communicate in plain and accessible terms that your clients can easily understand. Explain what a “resilient” building looks like and ensure the client is on the same page.

Be transparent about uncertainty

When discussing climate-related matters with clients, explain the various climate scenarios and the uncertainties surrounding them. By providing the range of potential climate outcomes, you can help clients recognize the importance of designing resilient buildings that can withstand different climate conditions. This approach encourages clients to embrace adaptable and flexible design strategies that can effectively respond to an increasingly unpredictable climate.

Consider building certifications as a framework

Building certifications such as FORTIFIED and the Living Building Challenge offer frameworks for identifying and achieving resilient goals in building design and hold the client and design team accountable for meeting these goals. For example, FORTIFIED was developed to mitigate damage caused by hurricanes, high winds, and hail, and provides a systems-based approach intended for resilience against severe weather events. Similarly, certifications like the Living Building Challenge present specific resilience strategies, such as net-positive water and net-positive carbon, highlighting the need to incorporate resiliency strategies so the buildings can be habitable for up to a week without typical grid-tied utilities.

Collaborate with experts

Work in partnership with consultants or experts in climate resilience to identify effective design strategies and implementation. This is best begun early in the

process, where designers, consultants, client and building occupants can come together to develop realistic goals, such as a integrated design workshop or charette.

Use visual aids

Utilize annotated axon or section diagrams, charts and data from online tools, and case studies to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change and the benefits of resilient design. Visual representations can make complex concepts more accessible and help clients grasp the significance of integrating resiliency into their projects.

Provide a variety of resilient design options

Provide the client with options that align with their specific needs and budget. Present a range of resiliency strategies and discuss how each can address the unique challenges and goals of their project.

Provide examples

Share examples of successful projects that have implemented resilient design strategies. Highlight the positive outcomes, such as improved performance, reduced maintenance costs, enhanced occupant comfort, and increased value.

Offer a phased approach

If clients are hesitant to commit to a fully resilient design, propose a phased approach where resiliency measures can be integrated over time, beginning with the most urgent risks.

Discuss long-term benefits

Highlight the long-term benefits of resilience, including cost savings, risk mitigation, adaptability, and improved well-being. Resilient design not only future-proofs the building to last for generations but also provides flexibility to meet the changing needs of climate-related events. Additionally, emphasize the positive impact on occupant health, comfort, and well-being, such as improved indoor air quality, access to natural light, thermal comfort, and a sense of safety.

Communicate the value proposition

Clearly demonstrate how integrating resiliency measures aligns with the client’s brand image, sustainability goals, and social responsibility. Emphasize the positive impact it can have on their reputation, overall business resilience, and occupant satisfaction.

Address potential concerns

Acknowledge any concerns or misconceptions that clients may have regarding the perceived costs or complexities of incorporating resiliency measures. Demonstrate how investing in resilience can provide substantial returns over the lifespan of the building.

Encourage continuous monitoring and adaptation

Emphasize the importance of monitoring the building’s performance over time and making necessary adaptations to ensure ongoing resilience. Discuss the benefits of data collection, sensor technologies, and post-occupancy evaluations to maintain a buildings resilience.

SELECTED SOURCES

Resilience Design Toolkit

The Resilience Design Toolkit is a resilience design guide specifically developed for architects to understand the steps to coordinate resilience studies for a project and a general method to integrate resilience design thinking into a design process. It includes guidance on how to communicate resilience to clients, as well as a Q&A section that highlights potential questions and how to answer them.

Climate Action Message Book Appendix: Helping You Communicate the Value of Sustainable Design – AIA

This guide focuses on better communication around environmental stewardship, and how you can make an economical and moral case for sustainability.

Three Factors to Motivate Clients Toward Climate-Friendly Design – Patra Wroten, AIA

This article covers three ways to discuss climate-friendly design: stewardship, costs, and codes.

ROI of High-Performance Design – AIA

This website has tips and steps for how to talk to clients about implementing high performance design and the return on investment. It links to other pages such as increasing asset value, reducing operational costs, improving well-being and resilience, and the economic case for resilient design.

At the inception of the project, the team consulted with biologists and site ecologists to assess the flora and fauna in three predetermined zones before selecting which would be the optimal site for the new Marine Education Center.

STEP 3 - DESIGN TACTICS

With the risks assessed and a set of agreed-upon goals established, the next step is to identify specific measures and tactics to incorporate into the design.

Provided in an appendix to this paper is a matrix of design strategies, both architectural and systems-based, that can be selectively integrated within a project to help mitigate against whatever particular threats have been identified. These are organized by broad categories, however there is considerable overlap in how the various hazards of a natural disaster might manifest and so some of these tactics will appear in more than one place.

While this matrix consists primarily of specific devices and techniques to help design for resilience, a general theme that emerges is one of self-sufficiency. Following a natural disaster, the capacity of any first response agency will almost certainly be strained or exceeded. In remote locations that rely on volunteer fire departments this is even more likely. Roadways may become impassable due to flooding, mudslides, or fire, and one’s ability to access nearby population centers or other aid may be compromised. To offset this potential lack of external resources, the building should be designed to minimize its reliance on outside help, as well as to potentially alleviate that burden further by extending shelter to others.

CASE STUDIES

The case studies provided here include both in progress and completed projects. The Working Case Studies are intended to illustrate how the information gathered about the impacts of climate change might be incorporated into a site analysis at the concept design phase. These highlighted projects used the tools outlined in this document and include information about proposed design strategies.

The Implemented Case Studies are examples of Lake|Flato projects that included climate resilience in their programs and designs. While they predate this report and therefore don’t follow the process as specifically described in this document, they are nonetheless instructive as examples of resilient design thinking.

Both types of case studies include an introduction to the project, risk analysis, selected strategies, and the process for implementation used. Each provides a short overview that concludes with an appendix sharing how these ideas were presented to clients and then evolved through final documentation.

WORKING CASE STUDY 1

LIVINGSTON, MONTANA

This project is a new home on a ranch in western Montana. Nestled into a site near the Shields River, a tributary of the Yellowstone River, the site also sits near a national forest with views to nearby mountain peaks. We used resources from this document, particularly Risk Factor and Climate Explorer, to study specific future risks to nearby Livingston, MT. We then summarized the most critical climate effects, such as increased extreme-heat days, longer droughts, increased forest mortality, wildfires, and more frequent extreme winter storms.

In effort to aid the design team in their client presentations, we included a number of possible design responses for each risk. For added clarity, we keyed these into an isometric drawing of the house and also showed a climate graph.

DESIGN RESPONSE

High-performance building envelope

High-efficiency mechanical cooling supported by passive cooling strategies

Shading

Protection for exterior infrastructure, especially propane tanks and electrical service

Rainwater harvesting

Drought-tolerant landscaping

Heat-resistant plants

Fire-resistive building materials and assemblies

Defensive buffer between house and landscape plantings

Cistern dedicated for fires suppression

Self-sufficiency

Power backup supply (generator, batteries)

Dedicated space for food storage

FUTURE CLIMATE EFFECT

More extreme-heat days (Above 90°F)

SELECTED SOURCES

Climate Explorer

Risk Factor

More persistent drought periods

Increased forest mortality and wildfire risk

More intense winter storms

EXTREME HEAT

DESIGN RESPONSE

HIGH-PERFORMANCE BUILDING ENVELOPE

HIGH-EFFICIENCY MECHANICAL COOLING, SUPPORTED BY PASSIVE COOLING STRATEGIES

SHADING

PROTECTION FOR EXTERIOR INFRASTRUCTURE ESPECIALLY PROPANE TANKS AND ELECTRICAL SERVICE

SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN EXTREME-HEAT DAYS

WORKING CASE STUDY 2

WINCHELL, TEXAS

The project is for a large ranch in Brown County, near the center of Texas and alongside the Colorado River. The landscape is a mix of smaller trees (primarily cedars) and open fields. The location is remote and so we had to rely on an interpolation of data from other weather stations for the site analysis since there were none close to the site.

For climate projections and to assess potential threats we used some of the sources listed here, including Risk Factor and Climate Explorer. The results were presented to the client as part of a site master plan deliverable, and as a single page titled ‘Climate Change – Brown County’. We listed the key impacts (such as increased average temperatures and reduced precipitation) and paired that with a list of likely effects (more heat waves, increased wildfire risk, and fewer cool nights).

The program will include backup power, most likely from a generator, but we’ll also evaluate the landscape and the exterior wall materials in the context of the heightened wildfire risk that we’ve identified here.

KEY IMPACTS

Increased average temperatures

Reduced precipitation

Lower humidity

Continued increase in maximum wind speeds

EFFECTS

More days above 100°F

Fewer cool nights

Increased likelihood of heat waves longer than 3 days

High likelihood of wildfire, high risk to homes

Very high wildfire exposure

SELECTED SOURCES

Climate Explorer

Risk Factor

SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DAYS ABOVE 105 DEGREES

IMPLEMENTED CASE STUDY 1

MARINE EDUCATION CENTER AT THE GULF COAST RESEARCH LABORATORY

“All buildings eventually end up in the ocean.”

—Chris Snyder, Marine Education Center Director

PROJECT INFORMATION

Location: Ocean Spring, Mississippi

Size: 20,800 SF

Awards: AIA COTE Top 10 Award (2020)

AIA Honor Award for Architecture (2022)

Program: Education – College/University (campus-level)

The center exemplifies sustainable coastal building techniques applied in harmony with the marine environment. The education facility includes outdoor classrooms, laboratories, administration offices, assembly spaces, exhibition areas, and a pedestrian suspension bridge where researchers have an unparalleled opportunity to learn about the ecologically critical bayou and tidal wetlands of Mississippi.

CHALLENGES/ VULNERABILITIES

In 2005, the previous center was destroyed by Hurricane Katrina. A second storm impacted the site during schematic design, and a third, Hurricane Nate, hit during construction. It was clear that the new facility would need to be resilient, sustainable, and durable.

PROCESS

The client, having experienced the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, directed the project’s focus on resiliency. Prior to initiating any design work, the team focused on understanding the existing ecosystem, a process they termed “listening to the land.” This involved a thorough 3-4 month investigation of the site conditions, which also entailed researching the variety of tree species present. The project’s success was largely due to the work of an integrated design team, which included biologists, coastal ecologists, and members of the Resilient Design

Interior

Hurricane Tracking

Institute. After the assessment phase, a comprehensive design workshop took place where research findings were presented to help inform design decisions.

DESIGN STRATEGIES

Building Placement: The team consulted with biologists and coastal ecologists to assess flora and fauna in three pre-determined zones. They chose a building zone with the least sensitive ecosystem, open water access, and suitable elevation to withstand natural disasters. The site’s upper elevations rise three feet above the FEMA-defined 500year floodplain to prepare for storm surge.

Natural Buffers: The buildings were placed among the trees to use them as a natural wind buffer and to prioritize the land’s natural resilience against natural disasters. To maintain the natural landscape, a strict five-foot construction limit was enforced around each building and the suspension bridge. Many damaged trees were removed to protect the healthy ones, and the building placement was based on this analysis. The project relied on the landscape rather than the structure to withstand natural

disasters and promote durability.

Materials: The team worked with the Resilient Design Institute to select low-impact materials for the health of occupants and to avoid ocean contamination in the event of a natural disaster. The interiors feature millwork and accent paneling made from white oak, while the primary structures were built using Southern Yellow Pine. As this is a local Mississippi commodity, any necessary repairs in the future can be done quickly and easily.

Elevated Design: Buildings and decks are elevated on helical pier foundations with concrete pier caps, which help maintain natural hydrology while reducing impact on the land. The foundations also provide a four- to six-foot buffer above the 500-year floodplain.

SELECTED SOURCES

2020 COTE Top 10 winning project

FEMA Flood Maps

Reliant Design Institute

Site Selection Diagram

Exterior Image - Trees as Buffer

IMPLEMENTED CASE STUDY 2

EL PASO WATER UTILITIES HEADQUARTERS

This project is in design and highlights how different tools and climate resiliency research can be implemented in a project to inform resilient design decisions.

PROJECT INFORMATION

Location: El Paso, Texas

Size: 75,000 SF

Program: Office

PROCESS

During the conceptual planning phase, analysis of Heat Island, Hardscape Reduction, and Ecology Improvement guided the design decisions. These analyses were shared and discussed with the client, stakeholders, and design consultants in an integrated design charette. As the design advanced through the subsequent stages, further site analysis was conducted using tools to mitigate heat impact, including solar radiation studies, daylight analysis, and energy calculations which were then presented to the client.

RISK ANALYSIS

The research conducted using Climate Explorer revealed future climate trends in El Paso, such as rising average daily maximum temperatures and an increase in the number of days exceeding 100°F. The project also addressed the impact of the heat island effect and utilized local resources like The CAPA Heat Watch Program Report, produced by the University of Texas at El Paso, to understand the heat island impact at the specific site and community level. Additionally, water scarcity challenges arose from the semi-arid climate and prolonged droughts, leading to reduced water availability and increased water stress.

DESIGN STRATEGIES

To begin to identify challenges and goals, Climate Consultant was used to find climate responsive solutions. The following strategies were implemented:

UTEP Heat Island Report and Design Strategies

Exterior Rendering

Site Heat Island Reduction: Strategies such as reducing hardscape and improving ecology to manage stormwater and minimize impervious surfaces. It incorporates vegetated ground cover and large trees for cooling and increased infiltration, as well as shading elements through building orientation, courtyards, and shaded surfaces. However, some suggested shade structures were not implemented due to cost constraints.

Architectural Heat Mitigation: Architectural strategies for heat mitigation were employed, such as sun shading of windows with deep overhangs on the south side to balance daylight and allow passive solar gain in winter. Screens were used on the east and west elevations for sun orientation, storytelling, and branding purposes. These were studied throughout the design using daylighting analysis with Climate Studio. Although suggestions like cool roofs, green roofs, increased solar reflectance, evaporative cooling, and natural ventilation were considered, they were not implemented.

Water Reduction and Management: Managing stormwater and lack of water availability were key considerations in the design process. Given the infrequent rainfall intervals in the area, retaining and reusing water on site posed challenges, leading to the implementation of regionally responsive solutions such as arroyos and bioswales integrated into a native landscape. The project also prioritized rainwater harvesting, although it was challenging due to the limited annual average rainfall. Additionally, native vegetation was extensively incorporated to provide shading, enhance ecology, and create a strong connection to nature and biophilia.

SELECTED SOURCES

Climate Studio

Climate Explorer

Climate Consultant

CAPA Heat Watch

First Floor - Daylight Analysis Interior Rendering

IMPLEMENTED CASE STUDY 3

THE LODGE AT GULF STATE PARK

The project is certified LEED Gold as well as the first FORTIFIED Commercial Building and the first SITES Platinum hotel in the world.

PROJECT INFORMATION

Location: Gulf Shores, AL

Size: 291,000 SF

Program: Hospitality

Awards / Certifications: FORTIFIED Commercial, LEED Gold, and SITES certified.

PROCESS

Understanding site vulnerabilities and how to create a resilient building started before the design of the project during an integrated design workshop. Here, various consultants and the client got together to analyze the site and come up with solutions. An important part of this process was a presentation from the Resilient Design Institute where site concerns and solutions were

presented to the group. Additional analysis was done throughout the process to narrow in on effective design strategies. To ensure a resilient building, the design team and client opted to pursue FORTIFIED building certification which helped provide additional guidance to keep the project committed to achieving a resilient design.

RISK ANALYSIS

Gulf Shores, Alabama is prone to hurricanes, storm surges, drought, and tornados, all of which are expected to intensify in the future. In addition, the area is likely to see increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. These threats were shared with the client and consultants during the integrated design workshop. During the site analysis, the design team collaborated with biologists and coastal ecologists to perform a biological assessment of the dune ecosystem, and detailed hydrological modeling to determine the site’s resilience to storm surge and future sea level rise.

Existing Conditions Site Analysis Diagram

Exterior Image

DESIGN STRATEGIES

Building Certification: The project team and client opted to pursue IBHS’s FORTIFIED Commercial certification. Through plan review process and vigorous site inspections, this certification requires above-code structural design, the incorporation of additional safety factors, and selection of building materials and installation methods that have been rigorously tested to resist hurricane force winds. The project is the first Fortified Commercial Building in the world.

Community Support: Another project goal was to provide support in times of need during natural disasters. For example, during Hurricane Sally in 2020, the lodge withstood the hurricane and was able to serve as a place of refuge for community members and first responders. The building survived with only minor damage to the exterior siding.

Site / Building Location: Analysis was used to determine the ideal location and elevation for the buildings of the lodge and to inform the foundation systems. The completed buildings are set back between 200’ and 250’

from the coastal construction line and primary dunes, in order to allow the development of secondary dunes, which strengthen the dune ecosystem that functions to provide a critical buffer from storm surge.

Elevation and Finish Floor: The finish floor elevation was designed to address the fact that storm surges will be higher as sea levels rise. The decision was made to set the finish floor elevations at least 2’ above the base flood elevation of 15’-0” above sea level.

Durable Materials: Concrete and steel were selected as the preferred structural materials for most of the lodge buildings due to their strength and durability. Southern yellow pine was chosen for the lobby, porches, and covered walks, while reclaimed sinker cypress was used for building cladding in specific areas. Locally sourced heavy timber and glulam pine members were utilized to support the local economy and take advantage of their availability.

SELECTED SOURCES

Fortified Building Certification

Site and Building Section Cut

Image of Raised Finish Floor

ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY AND SELECTED SOURCES

GENERAL

Design for Change – AIA Framework for Design Excellence

The Framework for Design Excellence represents the defining principles of good design in the 21st century. Design for change focuses on adaptability, resilience, and reuse to enhance usability, functionality, and value over time.

Building Science Resource Library | FEMA.gov

FEMA’s hazard-specific guidelines for creating hazardresistant communities. It includes resources related to disaster preparedness, recovery, codes, and more.

Building America Solution Center – US Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

Expert information on hundreds of high-performance construction topics. It includes the Disaster Resistance tool which provides guidance on building, renovating, and restoring homes to be more resistant to natural disasters.

Fortified Building Certification

Fortified was developed by the IBHS (Insurance Institute for Building Safety) and offers certifications for both homes and commercial buildings. The program focuses on guidelines for enhancing building resilience and covers a variety of design strategies.

Resilient Design Strategies – Resilient Design Institute

Lists of specific design strategies at the building, community, and regional scales. It also includes ways to maintain passive livability.

Recovery and Resilience Resource Library | FEMA.gov

The tool helps users to find and research federal disaster recovery resources that would be beneficial in pre-disaster recovery planning or in the wake of a disaster.

FLOOD + HURRICANE

Resilient Design Strategies for Extreme Weather – Blaine

Brownell – Architect Magazine, 2017

Strategies for protecting the built environment in an age of climate change and increasingly frequent natural disasters.

Flood-Resilient Buildings | JLC Online

This article considers different flooding conditions (coastal or inland). It provides insight graphics and construction details.

Designing For Floods

Construction methods for designing for floods.

Flood and Hurricane Resistant Buildings

Design strategies and details for creating flood and hurricane resistant buildings.

COLD WEATHER

Hours of Safety in Cold Weather: A Framework for Considering Resilience in Building Envelope Design and Construction – Feb 2022 by Rocky Mountain Institute

This report offers a framework for understanding how long a home can maintain thresholds of comfort and safety before reaching unsafe indoor temperature levels.

WIND

Wind-Resilient Buildings | JLC Online

This article provides a good description of how to respond to high wind events. It includes detailed graphics showing framing and attachment methods.

9 Tips for Constructing High-Wind Resilient Homes –Journal of Light Construction

This article provides a short summary of framing strategies with explanatory graphics.

FIRE

Wildfire-Resilient Buildings | JLC Online

This article covers strategies for creating fire resistant buildings. It provides details on hardening structures and resisting ember storms.

Ignition Resistant Construction Design Manual (coloradosprings.gov)

This report covers various construction and wildfire mitigation elements of site and building design, including materials and plant selection.

AIR QUALITY

Climate Change and Indoor Air QualityGreenBuildingAdvisor by Jon Harrod

Comprehensive overview of the causes and effects of loss of air quality.

FINAL CONSIDERATIONS

A point worth emphasizing in any conversation about resilient buildings is that Lake|Flato is not in the business of making bunkers or doomsday shelters. Clients with the means to do so may ask for places of refuge to insulate themselves and their families against disaster. Our approach to resilience should be more broadly directed and not run counter to the goals of environmental justice that Lake|Flato has adopted.

It’s also important to recognize that true resilience is systemic; it requires a holistic mindset that includes not only the occupants of the resilient building but also its neighbors and community. It’s beyond the scope of this document to spell out exactly how this is done—most of the efforts towards these goals will be the responsibility of planners and local governments—but in the context of a single building or development it means that a given design could include a kind of ‘surplus resiliency,’ such as additional power, space, or other resources to provide aid for others. No one lasts forever in a life raft; at some point you have to go ashore and begin working with everyone else who rode out the same storm.

One final caveat regarding this report is that the study of climate change is a dynamic one that must inevitably chase a swiftly moving target. Books on the subject have a limited shelf life as each year the science improves, the projections are refined, and the effects of our collective response or lack thereof become known. In the case of this report, however, it is our expectation that while the

specific tools for analyzing the sites may become dated, the other elements will remain relevant. The understanding of how to address hazards and what to say to clients about resiliency are fixed and will only need an adjustment of degree.

CONCLUSION

Architects must expand their understanding of site conditions and incorporate future climate change impacts into their design processes. Doing so will enable architects to better fulfill their professional responsibility to their clients by designing resilient and adaptable buildings that more fully serve their needs, now and into the future. This report is an attempt to create a framework of strategies and resources to empower architects to understand climate impacts, assess the ways in which protecting against these impacts will matter to the client and the architect, and then address them in the design of a new building.

Architects also have an opportunity to demonstrate professional leadership by embracing the responsibility to design with a realistic understanding of climate change and its impacts on our buildings. Through this investigation, Lake|Flato Architects will be part of this effort to achieve beautiful, long-lasting, and resilient forms of architecture.

APPENDIX

DESIGN TACTICS

SURFACE OR RIVERINE FLOODING

Flooding is the most common type of natural disaster in the US by a wide margin. There are three typical types of flooding: surface or pluvial, riverine or fluvial, and coastal. Surface flooding is the result of extreme rain events that overwhelm the capacity of the environment to absorb the water, and is more common in urban areas with a large amount of impervious surfaces that lead to runoff.

Neighborhood

Impassable or flooded roadways. Isolation, inability to leave house or neighborhood; delayed emergency response depending on scale.

Building: water inundation Direct effects of water entering the building.

Riverine flooding is the result of a waterway receiving more water than it can hold and overtopping its banks. The two types are interconnected, and one can lead to the other. Coastal flooding is addressed below.

Include space for sufficient food storage; floor level higher above flood plain than required; no mechanical systems or appliances in basement – provide space in upper levels.

Dry flood-proofing: most technically complex option and may require manual activation.

Wet flood-proofing: intentional flooding to protect structure against hydrostatic forces. Elevate structure 1' above base flood elevation on piers.

Floodwalls: a free-standing and permanent wall that surrounds the protected area.

Foundation design: consider hydrostatic pressure, scour, hydrodynamic forces, uplift, and impacts from floodborne debris.

Site strategies: retention ponds, blue/green roofs, storage tanks, rain gardens, bioswales, and/or pervious pavement.

Seal basement foundations against water absorption.

Building: water infiltration (cont.)

Impacts to building systems

Site planning: assess flood plain levels conservatively; anticipate climate change impacts (these are not included in Flood Insurance Risk Maps (FIRM).

Choose flood-resistant materials: stone, tile, concrete, treated or thermally-modified wood, epoxy paints, metal, mineral wool insulation.

Avoid materials susceptible to water: drywall, carpeting, untreated wood, fiberglass/cellulose insulation.

Electrical outlets and panels raised above flood level.

HVAC systems elevated in building and outside.

Minimize mechanical systems in basement.

Waterborne contaminants

Minimize basement storage.

Add check valves at all sewer lines entering building to prevent system backing up. Gate valves preferred over flap valves.

COASTAL FLOODING

As distinct from Inland flooding. Can be caused by storm surges, tsunamis, or seiche. Is also an inevitable effect of higher sea levels, even without any contributing factors. Wave effects are unique to coastal flooding and can exacerbate erosion, scour, and hydrodynamic forces.

Salt water inundation Foundation damage from scour, erosion and uplift.

Direct impact from water and water-borne debris.

Nuisance flooding is also increasingly common in areas near sea level and can lead to more minor impacts such as corrosion and erosion. For general water infiltration measures see Inland Flooding in this table, above.

Coastal Erosion

Saltwater intrusion into building.

Engineer foundations to exceed requirements based on historic data.

Design for impact-resistance.

Sacrificial barriers to absorb initial impacts of waterborne debris.

Select building materials, fasteners, and anchors for resistance to salt-water corrosion and rated for coastal exposure.

Set electronic systems and panels higher above BFE.

Economic impacts from lowered property values.

Destabilized bearing soils can lead to abrupt building foundation collapse.

Avoid building in areas susceptible to sea level rise; consider impacts of devalued property in pro-formae.

Foundation design considers erosion potential.

Undercut highways and roadways.

Relocate building inland.

Avoid development in susceptible zones near the shoreline.

Additional food and supply storage capacity.

Battery and/or generator backup.

EXTREME WIND EVENTS

Typically in the context of a storm so impacts will be compounded by water infiltration. Wind forces exerted on a building are directly related to building height, its form, the degree of direct exposure, and its overall structural design. The impact resistance of openings and wall assemblies

Direct wind damage

is also critical, as is the degree of attachment of exterior cladding and other materials. Landscape elements also should be accounted for, both as liabilities if dislodged as well as for their potential to mitigate wind forces.

Structural stresses to building. Optimize building form to be regular and symmetrical.

Avoid irregularities in form such as dormers, re-entrant corners, and exterior stairs. Avoid projections, overhangs and cantilevers that can catch wind and cause uplift.

Strengthen exterior walls to resist wind loads.

Provide trees and other elements as buffers in landscape design.

Maintain continuous load path that transfers wind loads to the ground.

Roof fasteners should be closely spaced at eaves and edges.

Seal roof deck and tape seams.

Elements dislodged from building.

Mechanically anchor all solar panels.

Roof-mounted equipment should be mounted on equipment stands, not just set atop wood sleepers. Mechanical penthouses to protect equipment.

Roof-top duct should be well anchored and of heavy enough gauge to resist impact and wind stresses.

Fan cowls should be rated for wind resistance or secured with cables.

EXTREME WIND EVENTS (CONT.)

Falling trees/other windborne objects

Direct physical impacts to building.

Secondary roof covering.

Extra fastening for flashing and coping.

Use tested assemblies.

Face nail cladding if winds over 100 mph are anticipated.

Brick veneer: 16" stud spacing with two-piece adjustable ties attached with 2" ring shank. nails.

Use battens for exterior insulation greater than 1-1/2" thick.

Consider potential tree impacts on building in landscape design, both beneficial and detrimental. Damage to openings. Impact resistant doors and windows in susceptible locations.

Outswing doors where appropriate.

Shutters with permanent anchors.

Spec fastening systems and ties beyond code requirements; rain screen; maintain trees and prune as needed.

Wind-borne dirt and dust infiltration of envelope; water damage to materials and contents; moisture issues

Site damage to site elements, including plants and hardscape

Include a rain screen; more careful and redundant sealing strategies around openings.

Redundant water barrier at roof. Avoid ridge vents (can become airborne or act as scoops to bring rain in).

Select plants for hardiness, native species preferred.

WILDFIRE

In much of the western US, wildfires have become an annual occurrence. Where there used to be a season that firefighters could plan for, it’s become almost year-round and more widespread geographically.

Direct exposure to fire/ airborne embers site

roof/walls

windows

Landscape design should include defensible buffer zone around building to reduce fuel load.

Avoid sites within forests or heavily vegetated areas. Avoid vulnerable sites, such as within a wildland-urban interface (WUI), on a ridge line, mid-slope or in a ravine.

Provide efficient access for firefighters: 20' minimum width of roadway, turnaround, and 13'-6" height clearance. Avoid steep slopes.

Install dry hydrant at any nearby pond or waterway with firetruck access for drafting.

Provide dedicated onsite water supply for fire suppression and connected to sprinklers.

Avoid ventilated attics and eaves.

Spaces under decks should be screened against embers, max 1/8" mesh.

Specify Class A roofing, such as metal, clay, cement tile, or composition.

Crawlspaces should be protected against ember infiltration; non-vented crawlspaces are preferred.

Siding should be fire resistive and not have gaps that allow infiltration of embers.

Glazing to be laminated and tempered Low-E doubleglazed IGUs.

Spec metal clad frames.

WILDFIRE (CONT.)

Install metal insect screens and/or metal shutters.

Provide non-combustible gasketed shutters for openings, manually deployed and hinged (i.e. not removable since those are less likely to be available when needed).

Include sprinklers in design, both interior and exterior.

Soil erosion Landslides or mudslides Consider topography when siting the building.

Smoke

Reduced indoor air quality

Smoke damage

Careful and redundant air sealing strategies.

Filtered ERV with readily accessible filter.

Select materials for resistance to smoke damage.

Fabric finishes should be readily demountable for cleaning or removal.

EXTREME HEAT EVENTS

Electrical grid disruption loss of space conditioning; food spoilage; no lights; no internet

Include generator in design and specs.

Include space for a battery backup with PV system.

Internet disruption cell-based internet

EXTREME COLD EVENTS AND WINTER STORMS

Extreme snow events Roof collapse.

Insufficient envelope/HVAC Interior becomes uninhabitable.

Extreme cold events Frozen water pipes and sprinkler pipes.

Account for higher snow loads in structural design.

Avoid projections where subject to snow/ice shear.

More insulation in roof to prevent melting from below.

Improved waterproofing details.

Increase thermal resistance of the envelope.

Careful and redundant air sealing strategies.

Design for passive solar gain in winter.

Include insulated blinds in design.

Insulate pipes carefully and prevent exposure to any drafts at all; automatic water shut-off valve; install main valve outside foundation; avoid placing pipes and waste lines on exterior walls.

REDUCED AIR QUALITY

Air quality in the United States has been improving steadily since the 1970s with the passage of the Clean Air Act and other environmental regulations. However, in 2016 the average air quality began to degrade for the first time, and has been ever since, largely due to increased particulate matter from wildfires.

Wind-borne dirt and dust

Reduced air quality leading to respiratory impacts and damage to household electronics.

More intense pollen seasons increased allergy suffering leading to reduced productivity and comfort

Careful and redundant air sealing strategies.

Mold and mildew damage to interior finishes and furnishings; respiratory impacts; costly mitigation process

Filtered ERV with readily accessible filter.

Dedicated air cleaning system.

Careful and redundant air sealing strategies.

Smoke From wildland fires, leading to respiratory impacts and damage to household electronics.

Filtered ERV with readily accessible filter.

Dedicated air cleaning system.

Active dehumidification system.

Vapor-open wall and roof assemblies.

Protected crawl spaces.

Careful and redundant air sealing strategies.

DROUGHT

Reduced water supply/quality

Excessive local water extraction can lead to reduced supply and quality.

Incorporate water storage and rainwater harvesting systems.

Incorporate greywater systems into landscape and building design.

Select fixtures for very low water usage.

Consider composting toilets where appropriate.

Plant die-off from lack of water Select drought-tolerant plants

Use greywater system for irrigation.

Use smart irrigation controls.

increased wildfire risk see WILDFIRE in this table

Expansive soil contraction

Foundation settling beyond anticipated maximums.

Design foundation to resist settling.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

CLIMATE CHANGE: GENERAL

Center for Climate Resilience and Decision Science; Argonne National Laboratory. (n.d.). ClimRR Data Explorers & Summary Tool. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://disgeoportal.egs.anl.gov/ClimRR/?page=ClimRR

Colman, Z. (2020, November 30). How climate change could spark the next home mortgage disaster. POLITICO.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/30/climatechange-mortgage-housing-environment-433721

Fitzpatrick, M. C., & Dunn, R. R. (2019). Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century. Nature Communications, 10(1), 614.

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08540-3

Flavelle, C., & Fountain, H. (2020, August 4). Hurricane, Fire, Covid-19: Disasters Expose the Hard Reality of Climate Change. The New York Times. https://www. nytimes.com/2020/08/04/climate/hurricane-isaias-applefire-climate.html

Goodell, J. (2017). The Water Will Come: Rising Seas, Sinking Cities, and the Remaking of the Civilized World (First Edition, 2nd printing). Little, Brown and Company.

Goodell, J. (2018, February 25). Welcome to the Age of Climate Migration. Rolling Stone. https://www.rollingstone. com/politics/politics-news/welcome-to-the-age-ofclimate-migration-202221/

Kohut, A. L., Meridith. (2020, September 15). Climate Change Will Force a New American Migration. ProPublica. https://www.propublica.org/article/climate-change-willforce-a-new-american-migration

Kolbert, E. (2014). The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History. Henry Holt and Company.

NOAA. (n.d.). Storm Events Database | National Centers for Environmental Information. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/

Plumer, B., & Zhong, R. (2022, February 28). Climate Change Is Harming the Planet Faster Than We Can Adapt, U.N. Warns. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes. com/2022/02/28/climate/climate-change-ipcc-report.html

Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Tignor, M. M. B., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., & Rama, B. (Eds.). (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA.

RESOLVE. (n.d.). Ecoregions 2017 ©. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://ecoregions.appspot.com/

Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, & Arnold and Porter. (n.d.). U.S. Climate Change Litigation. Climate Change Litigation. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://climatecasechart.com/us-climate-changelitigation/

Shaw, A., Lustgarten, A., ProPublica, Goldsmith, J. W., ProPublica, S. to, September 15, & 2020. (2020, September 15). New Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States. ProPublica. https://projects.propublica.org/climatemigration

Society of Building Science Educators. (n.d.). Climate Consultant. Climate Consultant. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://www.sbse.org/resources/climate-consultant

U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit Climate Explorer. (n.d.). Climate Explorer. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://crtclimate-explorer.nemac.org/

US EPA. (n.d.). CREAT Climate Change Scenarios Projection Map. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://epa. maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=3805

293158d54846a29f750d63c6890e

Wallace-Wells, D. (2019). The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming (1st Edition). Tim Duggan Books.

CLIMATE CHANGE: REGIONAL

Arup. (n.d.). Understanding the City Resilience Index. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://www.arup.com/en/ projects/city-resilience-index

C2ES Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. (n.d.). U.S. State Climate Action Plans. Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://www. c2es.org/document/climate-action-plans/

Center for Climate Resilience and Decision Science; Argonne National Laboratory. (n.d.). Local Climate Projections | ClimRR. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://disgeoportal.egs.anl.gov/ClimRR/?page=ReportGenerator

City of Boston. (2018, September 26). Climate Resilient Design Guidelines. https://www.boston.gov/environmentand-energy/climate-resilient-design-guidelines

City of San Antonio. (2019). SA Climate Ready: A Pathway for Climate Action & Adaptation (p. 92). https:// www.sanantonio.gov/Portals/0/Files/Sustainability/ SAClimateReady/SACRReportOctober2019.pdf

Georgetown Climate Center. (n.d.). State and Local Progress on Adaptation Plans. Georgetownclimatecenter. Org. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://www. georgetownclimate.org/adaptation/index.html

Kunkel, K. E. (2022). State Climate Summaries for the United States 2022. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 150. NOAA NESDIS. https://statesummaries.ncics.org

US EPA, O. (2021, September 17). Climate Adaptation Plans [Overviews and Factsheets]. https://www.epa.gov/climateadaptation/climate-adaptation-plans

DISASTERS: GENERAL

First Street Foundation. (n.d.). Highlights From “Fueling the Flames.” FirstStreet. Retrieved November 13, 2023, from https://firststreet.org/research-lab/publishedresearch/article-highlights-from-fueling-the-flames/

Flavelle, C. (2020, September 2). Wildfires Hasten Another Climate Crisis: Homeowners Who Can’t Get Insurance. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/ climate/wildfires-insurance.html

Flavelle, C. (2022, October 13). Why Ian May Push Florida Real Estate Out of Reach for All but the Super Rich. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/ climate/florida-real-estate-hurricane-ian.html

Flavelle, C., Lu, D., Penney, V., Popovich, N., & Schwartz, J. (2020, June 29). New Data Reveals Hidden Flood Risk Across America. The New York Times. https://www. nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/29/climate/hidden-floodrisk-maps.html

Flavelle, C., & Popovich, N. (2022, May 16). Here Are the Wildfire Risks to Homes Across the Lower 48 States. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes. com/interactive/2022/05/16/climate/wildfire-risk-mapproperties.html

Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS). (n.d.). IBHS.org. Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://ibhs.org/

Moody’s Analytics. (n.d.). RMS Estimates US$67 Billion in Insured Losses from Hurricane Ian | RMS. Retrieved October 21, 2022, from https://www.rms.com/newsroom/ press-releases/press-detail/2022-10-07/rms-estimatesus67-billion-in-insured-losses-from-hurricane-ian

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. (n.d.). Storm Events Database | National Centers for Environmental Information. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/

Rebuild by Design. (n.d.). Atlas of Disaster. Retrieved October 31, 2023, from https://rebuildbydesign.org/atlasof-disaster/

Rojanasakul, M. (2022, September 22). Wildfire Smoke Is Erasing Progress on Clean Air. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/22/climate/ wildfire-smoke-pollution.html

RESILIENCE: GENERAL

AIA. (n.d.-a). AIA Resilient Project Process Guide—AIA. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://www.aia.org/ resources/6512008-aia-resilience-project-process-guide

AIA. (n.d.-b). Climate change adaptation design resources—AIA. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https:// www.aia.org/pages/77741-climate-change-adaptationdesign-resources:56

Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange (CAKE). (n.d.). Home | CAKE: Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange. Retrieved March 27, 2023, from https://www.cakex.org/

FEMA. (n.d.). Recovery and Resilience Resource Library | FEMA.gov. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://www. fema.gov/emergency-managers/practitioners/recoveryresilience-resource-library

FEMA. (2021). FEMA Resources for Climate Resilience. https://www.fema.gov/sites/default/files/documents/ fema_resources-climate-resilience.pdf

FEMA. (2023, June 9). Resilience Analysis and Planning Tool (RAPT) | FEMA.gov. https://www.fema.gov/about/ reports-and-data/resilience-analysis-planning-tool

Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, & M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (Eds.). (2012). IPCC, 2012: Glossary of terms. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. IPCC. https://archive.ipcc.ch/pdf/specialreports/srex/SREX-Annex_Glossary.pdf

Flavelle, C. (2020, August 26). U.S. Flood Strategy Shifts to ‘Unavoidable’ Relocation of Entire Neighborhoods. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/26/ climate/flooding-relocation-managed-retreat.html

Hemenway, C. (2023, April 3). Hard Commercial Property Market to Linger as Property Owners Take On More Risk. Insurance Journal. https://www.insurancejournal.com/ magazines/mag-features/2023/04/03/714303.htm

ICC. (2019, November 25). Resilience Toolkit. ICC. https:// www.iccsafe.org/advocacy/resilience-toolkit/

International Finance Corporation (IFC). (n.d.). Building Resilience Index. Building Resilience Index. Retrieved October 31, 2023, from https://www.resilienceindex.org

Jackson, C. (2021, November 12). What Does It Take to Build a Disaster-Proof House? The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/12/realestate/disasterproof-housing.html

Klinenberg, E. (2018). Palaces for the People: How Social Infrastructure Can Help Fight Inequality, Polarization, and the Decline of Civic Life (First Edition edition). Crown.

Minnery, R. (2015, August 4). Resilience to Adaptation. Architect. https://www.architectmagazine.com/aiaarchitect/aiafeature/resilience-to-adaptation_o

Resilient Design Institute (RDI). (n.d.). Resilient Design Institute. Retrieved October 31, 2023, from https://www. resilientdesign.org/

Shao, E. (2022, October 3). Three Ways to Build Back Smarter After Hurricane Ian. The New York Times. https:// www.nytimes.com/2022/10/03/climate/hurricane-ianrebuilding.html

Solnit, R. (2008). A Paradise Built in Hell: The Extraordinary Communities That Arise in Disaster (First Edition, First Printing edition). Viking Adult. Union of Concerned Scientists. (n.d.). Underwater. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://www.ucsusa.org/ resources/underwater

US EPA, O. (2015, August 28). Climate Change Adaptation Resource Center (ARC-X) (United States) [Overviews and Factsheets]. https://www.epa.gov/arc-x

US EPA, O. (2021, September 16). Climate Adaptation [Collections and Lists]. https://www.epa.gov/climateadaptation

WBDG. (n.d.). Building Resilience | WBDG - Whole Building Design Guide. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://www. wbdg.org/resources/building-resiliency

RESILIENT CONSTRUCTION

APA-The Engineered Wood. (2022, March 30). 9 Tips for Constructing High-Wind Resilient Homes. JLC Online. https://www.jlconline.com/how-to/9-tips-forconstructing-high-wind-resilient-homes

Brownell, B. (2017, September 14). Resilient Design Strategies for Extreme Weather. Architect. https:// www.architectmagazine.com/practice/resilient-designstrategies-for-extreme-weather

City of Colorado Springs. (n.d.). 2020 Ignition Resistant Construction Design Manual. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://coloradosprings.gov/document/2020ign itionresistantdesignmanualmarch2020.pdf

DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. (n.d.). Disaster Resistance | Building America Solution Center. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://basc. pnnl.gov/disaster-resistance

First Street Foundation. (n.d.). Risk Factor. Risk Factor. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://riskfactor.com

Harrod, J. (2022, May 24). Climate Change and Indoor Air Quality. GreenBuildingAdvisor. https://www. greenbuildingadvisor.com/article/climate-change-andindoor-air-quality

Home Innovation Research Labs. (2023a). Designing for Natural Hazards: Auxiliary (Designing for Natural Hazards

Series Volumes 1-5, p. 28). Office of Policy DevelopmentHUD. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/ pdf/Natural-Hazards_Volume-5-Auxiliary.pdf

Home Innovation Research Labs. (2023b). Designing for Natural Hazards: Earth (Designing for Natural Hazards

Series Volumes 1-5, p. 48). Office of Policy DevelopmentHUD. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/ pdf/Natural-Hazards_Volume-4-Earth.pdf

Home Innovation Research Labs. (2023c). Designing for Natural Hazards: Fire (Designing for Natural Hazards

Series Volumes 1-5, p. 24). Office of Policy DevelopmentHUD. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/ pdf/Natural-Hazards_Volume-3-Fire.pdf

Home Innovation Research Labs. (2023d). Designing for Natural Hazards: Water (Designing for Natural Hazards

Series Volumes 1-5, p. 28). Office of Policy DevelopmentHUD. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/ pdf/Natural-Hazards_Volume-2-Water.pdf

Home Innovation Research Labs. (2023e). Designing for Natural Hazards: Wind (Designing for Natural Hazards

Series Volumes 1-5, p. 32). Office of Policy DevelopmentHUD. https://www.huduser.gov/portal/sites/default/files/ pdf/Natural-Hazards_Volume-1-Wind.pdf

IBHS. (n.d.). FORTIFIED Home. FORTIFIED - A Program of IBHS. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https:// fortifiedhome.org/

JLC Staff. (2021, December 9). Wind-Resilient Buildings. JLC Online. https://www.jlconline.com/projects/disasterresistant-building/wind-resilient-buildings_o

JLC Staff. (2022a, April 14). Wildfire-Resilient Buildings.

JLC Online. https://www.jlconline.com/projects/disasterresistant-building/wildfire-resilient-buildings_o

JLC Staff. (2022b, May 26). Flood-Resilient Buildings.

JLC Online. https://www.jlconline.com/projects/disasterresistant-building/flood-resilient-buildings_o

Kweskin, E. (2013, October 3). Resilient Design Strategies. https://www.resilientdesign.org/resilient-designstrategies/

Lstiburek, J. (2006, October 26). BSD-111: Flood and Hurricane Resistant Buildings. https://buildingscience. com/documents/digests/bsd-111-flood-and-hurricaneresistant-buildings

Lstiburek, J. (2022, January 15). BSI-128: Designing for Floods. https://buildingscience.com/documents/buildingscience-insights/bsi-128-designing-floods

RISK ASSESSMENT TOOLS

Center for Climate Resilience and Decision Science; Argonne National Laboratory. (n.d.). ClimRR Data Explorers & Summary Tool. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://disgeoportal.egs.anl.gov/ClimRR/?page=ClimRR ClimateCheck. (n.d.). Climate Risk Report for Homes and Real Estate—Fire, Flood, Storm, Heat. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://climatecheck.com

FEMA. (n.d.-a). Building Science Resource Library | FEMA. gov. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://www.fema. gov/emergency-managers/risk-management/buildingscience/publications?name=&field_keywords_target_ id=49449&field_document_type_target_id=All&field_ audience_target_id=All

FEMA. (n.d.-b). Flood Maps | FEMA.gov. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://www.fema.gov/flood-maps

FEMA. (n.d.-c). National Risk Index | FEMA.gov. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://hazards.fema.gov/nri/

FEMA. (n.d.-d). Recovery and Resilience Resource Library. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://www.fema.gov/ emergency-managers/practitioners/recovery-resilienceresource-library

FEMA. (2022, June 10). Hazus. https://www.fema.gov/ flood-maps/products-tools/hazus

First Street Foundation. (n.d.). Risk Factor. Risk Factor. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://riskfactor.com

Fitzpatrick, M. C., & Dunn, R. R. (2019). Contemporary climatic analogs for 540 North American urban areas in the late 21st century. Nature Communications, 10(1), 614. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08540-3

Headwaters Economics. (n.d.). Neighborhoods at Risk. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://nar.headwaterseconomics.org/?_ ga=2.31075647.1665663288.1681658910566646884.1681658910&_gl=1*197vgvu*_ga*NTY2NjQ2OD g0LjE2ODE2NTg5MTA.*_ga_4GZ7QHJZ4N*MTY4MTY1ODk yMS4xLjEuMTY4MTY1ODkzNS4wLjAuMA..

International Finance Corporation (IFC). (n.d.). Building Resilience Index. Building Resilience Index. Retrieved October 31, 2023, from https://www.resilienceindex.org

NOAA. (n.d.-a). Climate Explorer. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://crt-climate-explorer.nemac.org/ NOAA. (n.d.-b). Sea Level Rise Viewer. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/ layer/slr

NOAA Office for Coastal Management. (n.d.). Coastal Flood Exposure Mapper. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/tools/flood-exposure. html

Schmid, K. A., Hadley, B. C., & Wijekoon, N. (2011). Vertical Accuracy and Use of Topographic LIDAR Data in Coastal Marshes. Journal of Coastal Research, 275, 116–132. https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00188.1

Union of Concerned Scientists. (n.d.). When Rising Seas Hit Home: An Analysis by the Union of Concerned Scientists. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://ucsusa.maps.arcgis. com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=64b2cbd03a3d4b8 7aaddaf65f6b33332

United States Environmental Protection Agency. (n.d.). CREAT Climate Change Scenarios Projection Map. CREAT Climate Change Scenarios Projection Map. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://epa.maps.arcgis.com/ apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=3805293158d54846a29f 750d63c6890e

University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. (n.d.). What will climate feel like in 60 years? [Interactive mapping tool]. What Will Climate Feel like in 60 Years? Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://fitzlab. shinyapps.io/cityapp/

U.S. Global Change Research Program. (n.d.). Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https://resilience.climate.gov/ USDA, US Forestry Service. (n.d.). Wildfire Risk to Communities. Retrieved September 3, 2023, from https:// wildfirerisk.org/explore/

World Economic Forum. (n.d.). Global Risks Report 2022. World Economic Forum. Retrieved April 16, 2023, from https://www.weforum.org/reports/global-risksreport-2022/in-full/