OPINION
12
Sunday, November 14, 2010
THE LEADING INDEPENDENT DAILY IN THE ARABIAN GULF ESTABLISHED 1961
Founder and Publisher
YOUSUF S. ALYAN Editor-in-Chief
ABD AL-RAHMAN ALYAN EDITORIAL : 24833199-24833358-24833432 ADVERTISING : 24835616/7 FAX : 24835620/1 CIRCULATION : 24833199 Extn. 163 ACCOUNTS : 24835619 COMMERCIAL : 24835618 P.O.Box 1301 Safat,13014 Kuwait. E MAIL :info@kuwaittimes.net Website: www.kuwaittimes.net
issues
The two lives of Angela Merkel By Andreas Rinke and Stephen Brown erman conservative party headquarters is rocking. To the heavy thud of AC/DC, hundreds of young party members throng the foyer of Konrad Adenauer House in Berlin waving posters and talking over the music. Music over, they listen with rapt attention and regular applause to Germany's most popular politician-approval rating a record 74 percentspeak about passion and leadership. With Germany taking on a more assured and outspoken role in Europe, its economy moving into what the economy minister has called an "XL recovery", and no national elections to worry about for three years, there's every reason for Angela Merkel's government to bask in the glow of success. Unfortunately for the German chancellor, neither she nor her Christian Democratic Party (CDU) is the object of the chants and adulation at this rally of young conservatives on a Saturday afternoon in October. Instead, the calls-"KT! KT! KT!"- refer to Merkel's debonair 38-yearold defence minister from the CDU's smaller, more conservative Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU). "KT" is Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg -- or to give him his full dues, Karl Theodor Maria Nikolaus Johann Jacob Philipp Franz Joseph Sylvester, Baron von und zu Guttenberg. Pictures of Guttenberg and his wife Stephanie, the great-greatgranddaughter of the "Iron Chancellor" Otto von Bismarck-architect of German unification in the 19th century -- frequently decorate the covers of newspapers and magazines. It may surprise many, especially those outside Germany, that the young noble is even considered a serious rival to the woman widely known as the new Iron Chancellor. But with the ruling coalition struggling in the polls, and some party insiders accusing her of weak leadership and a lack of enthusiasm, Merkel is beginning to look like a politician fighting for survival. In a Forsa survey in mid-October, 23 percent of respondents said Guttenberg would make a better chancellor than Merkel, with just 14 percent preferring the incumbent. More strikingly, nearly half the Germans polled saw no difference between the two leaders' abilities-something of an insult to the 56-year-old chancellor, re-elected just a year ago and in the front line of German politics for almost two decades. Guttenberg, who entered parliament just eight years ago, may turn out to be a flash in the pan. But his rise does highlight a contradiction about Angela Merkel: after five years as the most powerful person in Germany, her star seems to be waning at home even as it rises abroad. "There seem to be two Merkels-one abroad, one at home," says
G
Eberhard Sandschneider, research chief for the DGAP foreign policy think-tank. "It is a pattern in German politics and is similar to what her predecessors Helmut Schmidt and Helmut Kohl experienced." IRON CHANCELLOR OF EUROPE In person, Merkel comes across as a supremely confident politician of growing global stature. Unemployment is at an 18-year low and Germany, unlike historic rivals France and Britain, has avoided the drastic austerity measures that have filled French streets with protesters and will chop almost half a million public-sector jobs in Britain. The economy, motoring along at 2.2 percent growth, looks likely to expand steadily from now until her second term ends in 2013. Germany's growing assertiveness on the international stage has just been cemented by a new two-year turn on the United Nations Security Council. Merkel can also draw confidence from the fact that almost all her former internal rivals for leadership of the CDU have left politics. Younger ministers call her "Mutti" (Mum) with a mixture of respect and fondness. Guttenberg might impress with his easy style, but Merkel exudes experience, learnt from surviving in two different ideological systems and through crucial posts like environment minister in the 1990s and, since the 1998 defeat of her mentor Helmut Kohl, at the helm of the CDU. If Kohl taught Merkel anything, it was to focus on the end result. Visitors to Merkel's office on the 7th floor of the "Washing Machine", as the startling modern chancellery with its huge round windows is nicknamed, are immediately struck by her ambition. One clue, standing on a shelf behind her desk, is a small portrait of Catherine the Great, the German-born Russian empress with whom she seems to share a vision of transforming her country. "I want to ensure that in 2050 Germany and Europe are still taken seriously by the world, not just considered sanctuaries to the arts and beautiful old things," Merkel told Reuters when asked to define her ambitions. As the leader of Europe's biggest economy, Merkel is convinced Europe must integrate further if the old continent wants to retain influence. She denies the idea-popular in some parts of Europe over the past couple of years-that Germany's new willingness to push its opinion means it is moving away from the continent. Under her leadership, Germany helped push through the Lisbon Treaty which now underpins the Union, lobbied for a common foreign service and is now even happy to talk about closer coordination of economic and fiscal policy. Not surprisingly, Merkel often plays the role of "European chancellor" at summits of the bloc's 27 member states. — Reuters
All articles appearing on these pages are the personal opinion of the writers. Kuwait Times takes no responsibility for views expressed therein. Kuwait Times invites readers to voice their opinions. Please send submissions via email to: opinion@kuwaittimes.net or via snail mail to PO Box 1301 Safat, Kuwait. The editor reserves the right to edit any submission as necessary.
Myanmar Suu Kyi freed, but future uncertain By Martin Petty he figurehead of Myanmar's fight against dictatorship, Aung San Suu Kyi, was freed from house arrest yesterday, a move seen an attempt by the military junta to gain some credit for its muchcriticized political process. The release of the Nobel Peace Prize winner will be welcomed by the international community and could be the first step towards a relaxing of Western sanctions on the regime because of its atrocious human rights record. But the 65-year-old pro-democracy leader faces an uncertain future in a changing political landscape in which loyal comrades have defied her by courting public support and participating in last Sunday's election, which Suu Kyi's allies have long rejected. Below are key issues relating to her release. Although Suu Kyi's freedom has long been a demand of the international community, it is unlikely to lead to any near-term easing of sanctions, especially while an estimated 2,100 other political prisoners remain in detention. Western governments have welcomed her release but will probably wait for the new military-dominated political system to take shape before reviewing embargoes. They know Suu Kyi has been released and re-arrested before and there's nothing to suggest this won't happen again. Immediately after her release, several governments urged Myanmar to free more political prisoners. Her release is almost certain to sharpen the sanctions debate behind the scenes. Some US and European investors are keen to tap into Myanmar's vast resources, including rich natural gas
T
reserves. Myanmar's neighbors, Thailand, China and India, are already snapping up contracts. Some senators in Washington also warn that Myanmar will fortify its political and economic ties with China if the United States continues to ostracize the regime. It might decide a rethink of its policy is in order. It is not known if Suu Kyi
will continue her role as de facto leader of Myanmar's pro-democracy campaign. Few doubt she will fade from the scene, but by staying involved she will remain on a collision course with the powerful generals. Her first comment when emerging from her home yesterday was a call for unity, adding: "only then can we achieve our goal". The pro-
democracy camp is now divided between an old clique who are rebelling against the new system and progressives who believe a tiny role in a flawed process is better than decades longer on the sidelines. If Suu Kyi retains her political role, she might have more than the military to contend with. Freeing her is a double-
edged sword for the generals: while it could earn them some credibility after an election tainted by widespread fraud allegations, it could easily steal domestic attention away from a political transition the junta has struggled to sell to its skeptical people. In the eyes of the power-hungry generals, Suu Kyi is still a threat. Suu Kyi
NEW DELHI: Myanmar's pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's supporters celebrate her release, in New Delhi yesterday. — AP
rarely cooperates with the regime and has gained notoriety for her provocative and rousing speeches that won her the hearts of the public but have contributed to her long periods of incarceration. It is possible she will agitate them again, and there is a chance the junta will cook up another dubious reason to confine her to her home. While she remains free, the military is likely to follow her every move and wait for her to slip up. Myanmar's people tolerated an election in which they did not really believe, but some robust rhetoric from the charismatic Suu Kyi and her party might be enough to spark some kind of mass protest against a political process that will entrench military rule and continue to deny the people freedoms and economic development. The regime has spent years carefully plotting a water-tight transfer of power that bears some resemblance to democracy and is supported by its allies. It will use all means possible to uphold this and in Myanmar, that could mean brutal suppression of dissent. It has happened several times before and each time, the military prevailed. Although unlikely, there is an outside chance of a power grab by another faction inside Myanmar's massive military. Resentment could be simmering, especially since many generals were overlooked for promotion in a recent reshuffle and forcibly retired by junta strongman Than Shwe. Former soldiers among the National Unity Party may also have an axe to grind. Many have attributed their thrashing in Sunday's election to cheating by their opponents in the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party. — Reuters
G20's currency jaw-jaw better than war-war By Jitendra Joshi he G20 - touted in the depths of the financial crisis as the world's best hope for averting economic disaster-is finding it far harder today to surmount deep-seated challenges facing the global economy. The world's two biggest economies, the United States and China, are at loggerheads over currencies and trade, in a spat that lays bare more profound tensions between the long-dominant superpower and the coming giant. Given the Sino-US bickering, the Group of 20 club of advanced and emerging economies was always going to find it tough to negotiate a decisive pact to rectify outof-kilter patterns of trade that are hobbling the world economy. But, analysts said, it remained preferable for the leading players to argue out their differences in a multilateral forum such as the G20 rather
T
than sinking into 1930s-style isolation and trade wars."In Seoul, there was too much jostling over currencies, deficits and exports for the G20 leaders to make any significant breakthroughs," observed David Shorr, an expert on diplomacy at the US-based Stanley Foundation. "But there was also enough concern to avert a disastrous breakdown," he said after the G20 concluded its fifth summit Friday in the South Korean capital. The assembled leaders vowed to refrain from "competitive devaluation of currencies" and launched a process to craft "indicative guidelines" to reorient unbalanced trade between surplus and deficit nations. The immediate reaction from financial markets was unimpressed. Adam Cole, global head of currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London, said the G20 statement "could hardly have been more watered-down". The lan-
guage on trade imbalances was hardly the breakthrough sought by US President Barack Obama, who after receiving a bloody nose from US voters last week has been promoting a projobs agenda during an Asian tour this week. For Chinese President Hu Jintao and others including the leaders of Germany and Brazil, the peril for the world economy lies not in the hefty trade surpluses of exporting titans, but in super-loose US economic policies. Their criticism has reached fever pitch since the Federal Reserve announced a 600-billion-dollar shot of monetary stimulus, printing new money that critics say will devalue the dollar and heap pressure on exportreliant nations. It is all a far cry from November 2008, when the G20 elevated its meetings to summit level to respond to the clear and present danger of an imminent financial collapse. "We were on the edge of the precipice,"
International Monetary Fund chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in Seoul. "Now, it is more difficult to organize cooperation when people think the crisis is over," he said. "But I am fairly optimistic. The process will need more than one or two summits to adjust." The G20 accounts for around 90 percent of global economic output, and is far more representative of the world than the more exclusive G8, which it has supplanted as the pre-eminent forum for economic debate. In the view of former UN deputy secretary-general Mark Malloch-Brown, the G20 "helped to save the world" from economic catastrophe but is undergoing growing pains as the immediate crisis passes. "Forging agreement was never going to be easy, but the alternative is that these conflicts get taken out of the conference room and played out in more dangerous places," he wrote in the Financial Times. The South Korean
hosts of the G20's first summit in Asia battled hard to forge a compromise that allowed all sides to claim some credit for preventing talk of a "currency war" from getting out of hand. Kim Sang-Jo, a professor of economics at Hansung University, said the hosts had at least bought time for the G20 to pursue its debate under the mellower spotlight of meetings among finance ministers in the coming months. But he cautioned: "The kind of loose international coordination system that the G20 represents can hardly make binding rules." The baton passed Friday to the G20's new chairman, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who wants nothing less than root-andbranch reform of the international financial architecture. But the Stanley Foundation's Shorr said: "There are constraints on how far you can take such an ambitious agenda in a relatively short space of time." — AFP