Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin March 2019 Vol.41 No.3
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends
Policy Issue 2019 Work Report Measures to Boost Ventures
Economic News Briefing Korea to Help Exporters Amid Slowing Global Demand External Debt Amounts to US $440.6 Billion in 2018 Korea to Cut Stock Transaction Tax Korean FDI Posts US $49.78 Billion in 2018 Korea Grows 2.7% in 2018
Statistical Appendices eb.kdi.re.kr ISSN 2287-7266
Gwangyang Maehwa Village Along the river called Seomjin, famous for its clean and abundant water, is a village filled with plum trees. The Seomjin Village, also called a Maehwa (plum) Village, is located at the outskirts of Jiri Mountain, making it most attractive in spring. The annual Plum Blossom Festival takes place every March when the plum blossoms are in full bloom.
02
The Green Book: Current Economic Trends Overview
03
01. External economic situation
04
02. Private consumption
09
03. Facility investment
11
04. Construction investment
13
05. Exports and imports
15
06. Mining and manufacturing production
17
07. Service sector activity
19
08. Employment
21
09. Financial markets
25
9.1 Stock market
25
9.2 Exchange rate
25
9.3 Bond market
26
9.4 Money supply and money market
27
10. Balance of payments
29
11. Prices
32
11.1 Consumer prices
32
11.2 International oil and commodity prices
34
12. Real estate market
37
12.1 Housing market
37
12.2 Land market
39
13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators
42
03
Contents
41
Policy Issue 2019 work report Measures to boost ventures
49
Economic News Briefing Korea to help exporters amid slowing global demand External debt amounts to US $440.6 billion in 2018, soundness indicators stable Korea to cut stock transaction tax Korean FDI posts US $49.78 billion in 2018 Korea grows 2.7% in 2018 (preliminary)
53 Statistical Appendices
Editor-in-Chief Suh Joong-Hae (KDI) Yoon Tae-Sik (MOEF) Editorial Board Suk Ran (MOEF) Lee Jae-Yeal (KDI) Yu Seong-Im (KDI) Coordinators Kim Dae-Hyun (MOEF) Lee Hyun-Jin (KDI) Editors Shin Dong-Gyun (MOEF) Joo Moo-Kyung (MOEF) Lee Ji-Youn (KDI)
Overview 01 External economic situation 02 Private consumption 03 Facility investment 04 Construction investment 05 Exports and imports 06 Mining and manufacturing production 07 Service sector activity 08 Employment 09 Financial markets 10 Balance of payments 11 Prices 12 Real estate market 13 Composite indices of business cycle indicators
The Green Book:
Current Economic Trends
Overview
The economy has been improving in 2019 as industrial activities rose in January and economic confidence continued to rise in February. Jobs grew significantly in February compared with the previous month, and consumer prices remained stable. Industrial production rose in January by 0.8 percent month-on-month due to strong mining and manufacturing (up 0.5%, m-o-m), service output (up 0.9%, m-o-m) and construction completed (up 2.1%, m-o-m). Consumption and investment improved in January: Retail sales rose (down 0.2% → up 0.2%, m-o-m) as well as facility investment (down 2.6% → up 2.2%, m-o-m) and construction completed (up 2.4% → up 2.1%, m-o-m). Exports remained weak in February, falling 11.1 percent year-on-year due to weak semiconductors and slowing down global economies, including the Chinese economy. The consumer sentiment index (CSI) rose for the third consecutive month in February, up 2 points to 99.5, and the business sentiment index (BSI) improved 2 points to 69. The BSI outlook for March jumped 11 points to 76. The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell in January, as well as the cyclical indicator of the leading composite index, by 0.1points and 0.4points, respectively, compared to a month ago. The economy added 263,000 jobs in February as service jobs increased and also due to the government’s job creation programs. The unemployment rate went up by 0.1 percentage points due to increased job seekers. Consumer prices in February rose 0.5 percent compared to a year ago, fresh food prices being stable and oil prices continuing to fall. In February, KOSPI declined and the won weakened. Treasury bond yields fluctuated. Housing prices continued to decline in February (down 0.15% → down 0.12%, m-o-m) and Jeonse (lump-sum deposits with no monthly payments) prices continued to fall (down 0.22% → down 0.22%, m-o-m).
There has been a positive momentum into this year backed by improving industrial activities and economic confidence. However, uncertainties linger amid concerns over global economic slowdown, weak semiconductor markets, US-China trade relationship and Brexit. The government will strengthen its risk management, and will try to find ways to boost the economy and promote inclusiveness. The government will work to successfully implement measures to encourage exporters and ventures, as well as plans to support industrial innovation. March 2019
03
The Green Book
1. External economic situation Global economic growth is slowing down, and there are risks from trade conflicts, Brexit negotiations and a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
US The US economic growth rate slowed to 2.6 percent (annualized q-o-q) in the fourth quarter, but is still above the potential growth rate. Industrial production fell 0.6 percent month-on-month in January: Manufacturing (down 0.9%, m-o-m) fell, and mining (up 0.1%, m-o-m) rose. The ISM Manufacturing Index declined 2.4 percentage points in February. ISM Manufacturing Index (base=50)
59.5 (Sep 2018) → 57.5 (Oct) → 58.8 (Nov) → 54.3 (Dec) → 56.6 (Jan 2019) → 54.2 (Feb)
US GDP growth and industrial production (%)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate) Industrial production (q-o-q)
-6 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Federal Reserve Board
Retail sales rose 0.2 percent month-on-month in January due to strong construction materials (up 3.3%, m-o-m) and non-store retailing (up 2.6%, m-o-m) including online shopping. Consumer confidence rose sharply in February. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (1985=100)
137.9 (Oct 2018) → 136.4 (Nov) → 126.6 (Dec) → 121.7 (Jan 2019) → 131.4 (Feb)
04
Economic Bulletin
Existing home sales fell 1.2 percent month-on-month in January to an annual rate of 4,940,000 homes (down 8.5%, y-o-y). New home sales rose 3.7 percent month-on-month in December to an annual rate of 620,000 units (down 2.4%, y-o-y). Case-Shiller Home Price Index (y-o-y, %)
5.9 (Jul 2018) → 5.5 (Aug) → 5.2 (Sep) → 5.0 (Oct) → 4.6 (Nov) → 4.2 (Dec)
New home sales (m-o-m, %)
-1.0 (Jul 2018) → -0.8 (Aug) → 1.3 (Sep) → -9.9 (Oct) → 9.1 (Nov) → 3.7 (Dec)
The unemployment rate fell 3.8 percent in February, the employment rate unchanged. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 20,000 in February. Labor force participation rate (%)
62.7 (Sep 2018) → 62.9 (Oct) → 62.9 (Nov) → 63.1 (Dec) → 63.2 (Jan 2019) → 63.2 (Feb)
Nonfarm payroll increase (m-o-m, thousands)
108 (Sep 2018) → 277 (Oct) → 196 (Nov) → 227 (Dec) → 311 (Jan 2019) → 20 (Feb)
Unemployment rate (%)
3.7 (Sep 2018) → 3.8 (Oct) → 3.7 (Nov) → 3.9 (Dec) → 4.0 (Jan 2019) → 3.8 (Feb)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2016
2017
Annual Annual
2018
2019
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec Jan Feb
Real GDP
1.6
2.2
2.3
2.9
2.2
4.2
3.4
2.6
-
-
-
- Personal consumption expenditures
2.7
2.5
3.9
2.6
0.5
3.8
3.5
2.8
-
-
-
- Nonresidential fixed investment
0.5
5.3
4.8
7.0 11.5
8.5
2.5
6.2
-
-
-
- Residential fixed investment
6.5
3.3
11.1
-0.2
-3.4 -1.3 -3.6 -3.5
-
-
-
Industrial production
-1.9
1.6
1.9
4.0
0.6
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.1 -0.6
Retail sales
2.9
4.7
2.4
4.9
0.4
1.7
1.1
0.2 -1.6
0.2
-
Existing home sales
4.0
1.7
2.3
-3.4
-1.0 -1.8 -1.8 -3.1 -4.0 -1.2
-
Unemployment rate2
4.9
4.4
4.1
3.9
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.0
3.8
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
1.3
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.2
2.7
2.6
2.2
1.9
1.6
-
1
-
1. Annualized rate (%) 2. Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bloomberg
March 2019
05
The Green Book
China China’s economy continued to slow down in the fourth quarter (up 6.4%, y-o-y), growing 6.6 percent over the 2018 full year. Exports fell sharply by 20.7 percent in February.
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2016
2017
2018
Annual Annual Q4 Annual Q1
2019
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Feb
Real GDP
6.7
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.8
6.7
6.5
6.4
-
-
-
Industrial production
6.2
6.6
6.2
6.1
6.1
6.6
6.0
5.7
5.7
-
-
Fixed asset investment (accumulated, nominal)
8.1
7.2
7.2
5.9
7.5
6.0
5.4
5.9
5.9
-
-
Retail sales (nominal)
10.4
10.2
9.9
9.0
9.7
9.0
9.0
8.3
8.2
-
-
Exports
-6.9
6.9
9.6
9.9 13.7 11.5 11.7
3.9
-4.4
9.1 -20.7
Consumer prices1
2.0
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.2
1.8
2.3
2.2
1.9
1.7
1.5
Producer prices
-1.3
6.3
5.9
3.5
3.7
4.1
4.1
2.3
0.9
0.1
0.1
1
1. Quarterly data show an average of monthly data Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
China’s GDP growth and fixed asset investment
GDP (y-o-y, left) Fixed asset investment (accumulated, y-o-y, right)
(%)
(%)
14
50
12
40
10
30
8
20
6
10
0
4 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: China National Bureau of Statistics
06
Economic Bulletin
Japan Japan’s economy grew 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter, annual growth for 2018 being 0.8 percent. Unemployment rate (%)
2.4 (Aug 2018) → 2.4 (Sep) → 2.4 (Oct) → 2.5 (Nov) → 2.4 (Dec) → 2.5 (Jan 2019)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2016
2017
Annual Annual
2018
2019
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Nov
Dec
Jan
-
-
Real GDP
0.6
1.9
0.4
0.8
-0.1
0.5
-0.6
0.5
-
Industrial production
0.2
2.9
1.2
0.9
-1.1
1.2
-1.4
2.0
-1.0
-0.1 -3.7
Retail sales (nominal)
-2.9
1.2
1.3
1.7
-0.6
0.4
1.1
1.1
-1.1
0.9 -2.3
Exports (y-o-y)
-7.4
11.8 13.0
4.1
4.9
7.5
2.9
1.3
0.1
-3.9 -8.4
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
-0.1
1.0
1.3
0.7
1.1
0.8
0.8
0.3 0.2
0.5
0.6
Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
Japan’s GDP growth and industrial production (%)
GDP (q-o-q, left) Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
(%)
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
0
-1
-5
-2
-10
-3
-15
-4
-20
-5
-25 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Sources: Japan's Cabinet Office, Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry, Ministry of Finance, Statistics Bureau of Japan
March 2019
07
The Green Book
Eurozone The eurozone economy grew a mere 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter due to struggling car companies and demonstrations. The Manufacturing PMI in February hit the lowest since June 2013. Unemployment rate (%)
8.0 (Aug 2018) → 8.0 (Sep) → 8.0 (Oct) → 7.9 (Nov) → 7.8 (Dec) → 7.8* (Jan 2019) * Lowest since Dec 2008
Manufacturing PMI
53.2 (Sep 2018) → 52.0 (Oct) → 51.8 (Nov) → 51.4 (Dec) → 50.5 (Jan 2019) → 49.3 (Feb)
Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (base 2010=100)
109.7 (Oct 2018) → 109.5 (Nov) → 107.4 (Dec) → 106.3 (Jan 2019) → 106.1 (Feb)
(Percentage change from previous period)
2016
2017
Annual Annual
2018
2019
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Feb
Real GDP
2.0
2.4
0.7
1.8
0.4
0.4
0.1
0.2
-
-
-
Industrial production
1.7
3.0
1.4
1.0
-0.6
0.0
-0.1
-1.4
-0.9
-
-
Retail sales
1.6
2.4
0.3
1.5
0.2
0.7
-0.1
0.6
-1.4
1.3
-
Exports (y-o-y)
0.3
7.1
6.2
3.7
2.1
4.3
4.7
3.7
-2.5
-
-
Consumer prices (y-o-y)
0.2
1.5
1.4
1.8
1.3
1.7
2.1
1.9
1.5 1.4
1.5
Sources: Eurostat, Bloomberg
Eurozone’s GDP growth and industrial production (%)
(%)
2
6 4
1 2 0
0 -2
-1 -4 -2
-6 -8
GDP (q-o-q, left) Industrial production (q-o-q, right)
-3 -10 -4
-12 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Eurostat
08
Economic Bulletin
2. Private consumption Private consumption (advance estimate of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2018 rose 1.0 percent from the previous quarter and 2.5 percent compared with a year ago. (Percentage change from previous period)
2016 Annual Q3
Private consumption2
2017 1
1
1
Q4 Annual Q1
Q2
2018 1
Q3
1
1
1
Q21 Q31 Q41
Q4 Annual Q1
2.5
0.5 0.3
2.6
0.5 1.0 0.8 1.0
2.8
0.7 0.3 0.5 1.0
-
2.8 1.4
-
2.1 2.4 2.6 3.4
-
3.5 2.8 2.5 2.5
(y-o-y)
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: The Bank of Korea
Private consumption (%)
8 6 4 2 0 -2
Private consumption (y-o-y) Private consumption (q-o-q)
-4 -6 2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
2017.Q1
2018.Q1
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Retail sales in January rose 0.2 percent from the previous month: Sales of durable goods (down 1.0%) and semi-durable goods (down 4.6%) fell, and nondurable goods sales (up 3.0%) improved. Year-on-year the index rose 4.0 percent. (Percentage change from previous period)
2016
2017
Annual Annual
Retail sales
2018 1
2019 1
Q3
Q4
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
0.6
1.6
4,2
2.1
0.6
-0.2
-0.1
Dec
1
Jan1
-0.2
0.2
3.9
1.9
-
-
3.0
3.0
-
5.4
5.0
4.2
2.5
3.0
4.0
- Durable goods
4.6
5.3
-0.9
1.9
5.6
4.7
0.2
-2.6
0.2
-0.9
-1.0
¡ Automobiles
2.8
0.9
-2.4
0.4
8.2
10.1
1.0
-4.4
0.5
-1.4
-3.1
- Semi-durable goods3
2.3
-1.1
0.1
2.1
5.9
0.7
3.0
1.7
0.6
0.5
-4.6
- Nondurable goods4
4.2
1.8
1.4
1.3
2.9
1.5
-0.2
0.4
-0.5
-0.3
3.0
(y-o-y) 2
1. Preliminary 2. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices and etc. 3. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear and etc. 4. Nondurable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobacco and etc. Source: Statistics Korea
March 2019
09
The Green Book
Retail sales (%)
15
10
5
0
-5
Retail sales (y-o-y) Retail sales (m-o-m)
-10 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
Retail sales by type (y-o-y, %)
30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Durable goods Semi-durable goods
-5 -10 -15
Nondurable goods
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
In February sales of department stores and large discount stores fell, while the number of Chinese tourists and consumer sentiment rose. 2018 Jul
2019
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Car sales at home (y-o-y, %)
3.3
6.8
-18.7
23.1
-0.4
3.3
Jan 2.1
Feb -0.7
Department store sales (y-o-y, %)
3.2
2.9
4.3
3.9
-3.4
0.5
6.4
-7.7
Large discount store sales (y-o-y, %)
-2.5
2.0
7.5
-12.2
-1.7
-3.6
4.6
-10.8
Credit card use at home (y-o-y, %)
9.7
8.8
1.9
13.2
6.7
7.1
6.6
1.3
100.8 Consumer sentiment index Number of Chinese tourists (y-o-y, %) 45.9
98.9
100.0
99.2
95.7
96.9
97.5
99.5
41.0
36.4
37.7
35.1
25.3
35.1
48.11
1. ‌ Advance estimate based on all Chinese entries, which can be different from the statistic released by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism as it excludes diplomatic and military personnel Sources: ‌ Bank of Korea, Credit Finance Association of Korea, Korea National Oil Corporation, Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, data provided by retail industries
10
Economic Bulletin
3. Facility investment Facility investment (advance estimate of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2018 rose 3.8 percent quarter-on-quarter and fell 3.3 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
2017 Annual1 Q11
Facility investment2
2018
Q21
Q31
Q41 Annual1 Q11
Q21
Q31
Q41
14.6
4.5
4.3
0.2
-0.7
-1.7
3.4
-5.7
-4.4
3.8
-
16.1
17.9
16.3
8.6
-
7.3
-3.0
-7.4
-3.3
- Machinery
23.0
7.1
3.9
2.4
-1.2
-
4.0
-4.5
-9.5
-
- Transportation equipment
-3.2
-1.7
5.3
-5.5
0.8
-
1.9
-9.3
10.6
-
(y-o-y)
1. Preliminary 2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea
Facility investment (%)
40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20
Facility investment (y-o-y) -30
Facility investment (q-o-q)
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
2017.Q1
2018.Q1
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Facility investment by type (y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10
Transportation equipment
-20 -30
Machinery
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
2017.Q1
2018.Q1
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
March 2019
11
The Green Book
The facility investment index in January rose 2.2 percent month-on-month as machinery investment increased. The index fell 16.6 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
2017 Facility investment index
2018 1
Annual
Q3
Q4
Annual
14.1
0.2
-1.7
(y-o-y)
-
Q1
2019 1
Q2
Q3
Q4
-3.7
8.4 -11.0
-6.2
0.1
1
Dec
Jan1
-2.6
2.2
20.6
2.0
-
9.4
-5.9 -13.6
-8.6 -14.9 -16.6
- Machinery
22.4
-0.1
-2.0
-6.5
5.3
-9.5 -10.1
-1.0
-3.3
5.4
- Transportation equipment
-4.4
0.4
-0.8
4.0
2.7
-0.2
-5.3
17.8 -15.5
4.8
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Machinery imports and domestic machinery orders received fell in January, as well as facility investment pressure. The capacity utilization rate improved somewhat. BSI in the manufacturing sector (base=100, Bank of Korea)
77 (Sep 2018) → 78 (Oct) → 72 (Nov) → 71 (Dec) → 71 (Jan 2019) → 65 (Feb) → 76 (Mar) (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2017 Domestic machinery orders received (q-o-q, m-o-m)
2018 1
Q4 Annual
Q1
Q2
2019
Q3
Q4
1
1
Jan1
Annual
Q3
Dec
19.2
31.3
4.2
1.8
4.4
-0.4
0.0
-0.2
13.3
-
1.4
0.3
-
-8.9
7.2
1.8
0.0
23.9 -18.7 77.9 -60.6
-9.3
-Public
-21.8
-0.9 -54.0
8.8 -12.7
18.9
8.2
21.7
-Private
24.1
34.1
1.3
6.1
-1.7
-0.6
-1.6
Machinery imports
18.8
22.7
9.1
-0.9
21.0
-1.2 -13.1
-8.2 -19.9 -20.4
Capacity utilization rate
72.6
73.0
71.8
73.5
71.0
73.2
74.2
73.1
72.2
73.1
0.5
3.9
-4.7
1.4
-2.5
1.5
-0.8
4.9
1.3
-0.4
Facility investment pressure
2
15.0
9.5
-1.5
1. Preliminary 2. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p) Sources: Statistics Korea, Korea International Trade Association
Leading indicators of facility investment (trillion won)
(y-o-y, %)
10
60
9 40
8 7
20
6 0
5 4
Machinery imports (right)
-20
3 -40
2
Machinery orders (left)
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
2017.Q1
2018.Q1
Sources: Statistics Korea (machinery orders), Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports)
12
Economic Bulletin
4. Construction investment Construction investment (advance estimate of GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2018 rose 1.2 percent quarter-on-quarter and fell 6.0 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
2017 Annual1
Construction investment2 (y-o-y)
7.6
2018
Q11
Q21
Q31
Q41
Annual1
Q11
Q21
Q31
Q41
4.2
0.9
1.1
-2.3
-4.0
1.8
-2.1
-6.7
1.2
-
11.3
8.5
8.0
3.8
-
1.8
-1.5
-8.9
-6.0
- Building construction
12.1
4.5
2.4
1.9
-1.6
-
0.7
-1.1
-6.7
-
- Civil engineering works
-3.5
3.5
-3.0
-1.2
-4.2
-
5.3
-4.7
-6.6
-
1. Preliminary
2. National accounts Source: Bank of Korea
Construction investment (%)
15
10
5
0
-5
Construction investment (y-o-y)
-10
Construction investment (q-o-q)
-15 2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
2017.Q1
2018.Q1
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
Construction investment by type (y-o-y, %)
40 30 20 10 0 -10
Building construction
-20
Residential buildings -30
Civil engineering works
2009.Q1
2010.Q1
2011.Q1
2012.Q1
2013.Q1
2014.Q1
2015.Q1
2016.Q1
2017.Q1
2018.Q1
Source: Bank of Korea (national accounts)
March 2019
13
The Green Book
Construction completed (constant) in January rose 2.1 percent monthon-month as building construction increased. The index fell 11.8 percent year-on-year. (Percentage change from previous period)
2017
2018 1
Annual
Q3
Q4 Annual
10.5
-0.3
-0.1
Construction completed (constant) (y-o-y)
Q1
-5.2
2.5
2019 1
1
Jan1 2.1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
-4.9
-4.4
-7.8
2.4
-
12.7
-0.5
-
0.8
-3.5
-9.7
-3.7
-9.1 -11.8
- Building construction
18.5
2.7
-0.8
-4.0
0.6
-2.9
-4.4
-3.8
2.2
3.2
- Civil engineering works
-7.6
-7.3
3.0
-8.9
1.5
-7.6
-2.2
-3.4
3.1
-1.2
1. Preliminary
Source: Statistics Korea
Outlooks are mixed: Leading indicators, such as construction orders received and building permits, declined in January, but the government has raised its SOC budgets for 2019. Government SOC budgets (trillion won) 19.0 (2018) → 19.8 (2019)
(Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2017 Annual
Q3
2018 Q4
1
Annual
Q1
Q2
2019 Q3
Q4
1
1
Dec
Jan1
Construction orders received (current value)
-3.1 -10.2 -15.0
-3.0
3.6 -15.7
-5.7
-0.4
-2.0 -41.3
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-
8.0 -11.1
6.7
37.5
76.8 -64.7
- Building construction
-6.5
-8.3 -15.5
-8.7
-0.5 -14.7 -23.6
-5.0 -11.8 -21.6
- Civil engineering works
9.7 -17.3 -13.0
15.6
13.0 -19.1
16.8 -29.6 -62.9
Building permits2
-4.0
-6.3
1. Preliminary
-10.6
-0.3
-1.1
-2.4
3.7
67.0
-7.2 -10.2 -10.4 -14.5 -18.4
2. Floor area Sources: Statistics Korea, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
Apartment presales (thousands, Real Estate 114)
100 (Q4 2017) → 50 (Q1 2018) → 111 (Q2) → 66 (Q3) → 71 (Q4) → 30 (Jan 2019)
Leading indicators of construction investment (y-o-y, %)
200
150
100
50
0
-50
Construction orders -100
Building permit area
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Sources: Statistics Korea (construction orders), Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (building permit area)
14
Economic Bulletin
5. Exports and Imports Exports (preliminary) decreased 11.1 percent year-on-year to US $39.56 billion in February. By item, automobiles, machinery and steel rose, while semiconductors, wireless communications devices and computers dropped. By region, shipments to the CIS, the U.S. and India increased, while exports to the EU, China, the Middle East and Latin America declined. Export growth by item (y-o-y, %)
2.7 (automobiles), 2.7 (machinery), 1.3 (steel), -15.3 (wireless communications devices), -24.8 (semiconductors), -33.2 (computers)
Export growth by region (y-o-y, %)
20.5 (CIS), 16.0 (US), 4.7 (India), -8.5 (EU), -17.4 (China), -27.1 (Middle East), -33.8 (Latin America)
Average daily exports, an indicator calculated according to days worked, fell 8.8 percent year-on-year to US $2.08 billion. Average daily export growth (y-o-y, %)
10.7 (Q1 2018) → 3.9 (Q2) → 7.0 (Q3) → 0.1 (Q4) → -5.8 (Jan 2019) → -8.8 (Feb) (US $ billion)
2017 Exports
2018 Q1
Q2
2019
Annual
Annual
Q3
Q4
573.69
604.86 145.05 151.62 153.64 154.55
Feb
Jan
Feb1
44.52
46.33
39.56
(y-o-y, %)
15.8
5.4
9.8
3.1
1.7
7.7
3.1
-5.9
-11.1
Average daily exports
2.13
2.24
2.16
2.30
2.28
2.22
2.28
1.93
2.08
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Exports by item (y-o-y, %)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20
Export growth rate Automobiles Semiconductors
0 -20 -40 -60 -80
Steel
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
March 2019
15
The Green Book
Imports (preliminary) in February fell 12.6 percent year-on-year to US $36.47 billion. Imports declined in all three categories. Import growth by category (y-o-y, %, Jan → Feb)
0.2 → -8.5 (commodities), -9.1 → -20.5 (capital goods), 8.6 → -9.4 (consumer goods) (US $ billion)
2017
2018
Annual Annual
Imports
478.48
Q1
Q2
Q3
2019 Q4
Dec
Feb
Feb1
Jan
535.20 132.43 133.15 130.31 139.31 44.03 41.72 45.03 36.47
(y-o-y, %)
17.8
11.9
13.7
13.0
7.8
12.9
1.1
15.2
-1.7 -12.6
Average daily imports
1.78
1.98
1.98
2.02
1.93
2.00
1.96
2.14
1.88
1.92
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
The trade balance (preliminary) posted a surplus of US $3.10 billion in February, staying in the black for the 85th consecutive month. Surpluses increased month-on-month.
(US $ billion)
2017 Annual
Trade balance
95.22
2018 Annual 69.66
2019
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12.63
18.47
23.33
15.23
Feb
Feb1
Jan
2.80
1.29
3.10
1. Preliminary Source: Korea Customs Service
Imports by category (y-o-y, %)
100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40
Import growth rate Commodities Capital goods
-80 -100 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Sources: Korea Customs Service, Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (export and import trends)
16
Economic Bulletin
6. ‌ Mining and manufacturing production Mining and manufacturing production rose 0.5 percent month-on-month in January as manufacturing improved, along with mining. Gas & electricity production fell. The index rose 0.1 percent year-on-year. Compared to the previous month, production of automobiles (up 3.5%), primary metals (up 3.5%) and food (up 3.4%) rose, while electronic components (down 5.4%), broadcasting & communications equipment (down 21.1%) and electrical equipment (down 6.1%) fell. Compared to a year ago, production of semiconductors (up 7.5%), automobiles (up 9.4%) and other transportation equipment (up 19.8%) rose, while mechanical equipment (down 12.4%), electronic components (down 12.6%) and broadcasting & communications equipment (down 31.5%) declined. The manufacturing inventory-shipment ratio fell 3.1 percentage points monthon-month to 111.7 percent as inventories fell 1.2 percent and shipments rose 1.5 percent. Inventories of semiconductors (up 11.0%), chemical products (up 1.3%) and electrical equipment (up 1.0%) rose, while refined petroleum (down 18.7%), electronic components (down 8.5%) and broadcasting & communications equipment (down 12.5%) declined. Shipments of automobiles (up 6.3%), primary metals (up 6.6%) and refined petroleum (up 6.8%) rose, while semiconductors (down 11.4%), broadcasting & communications equipment (down 8.6%) and electronic components (down 2.7%) fell. The capacity utilization rate of the manufacturing sector improved 0.9 percentage points month-on-month to 73.1 percent. (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2017 Annual Q4
2019
Q41
Dec1 Jan1
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-1.0
-2.0
-
0.6
-1.5
-0.8
0.5
(y-o-y)
1.9
-3.8
-4.8
1.3
-1.8
4.3
0.7
0.1
(q-o-q, m-o-m)
-
-1.1
-2.5
-
0.3
-1.4
-0.9
0.5
(y-o-y)
1.6
-4.8
-6.2
1.2
-2.3
4.6
1.2
0.2
Inventory
8.8
2.9
1.2
7.3
-2.6
4.8
1.4
-1.2
Shipments
0.7
0.4
-3.8
-0.2
0.9
-1.5
-1.6
1.5
Mining and manufacturing2 Production 3
Manufacturing
2018 Dec Annual1 Q3
Capacity utilization rate Production capacity (y-o-y)
73.3 71.8 70.3 73.5 74,2 73.1 72.2 73.1 1.2
-0.1
-0.5
-0.2
-1.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.6
1. Preliminary 2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry 3. End-period Source: Statistics Korea
March 2019
17
The Green Book
Industrial production (%)
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
Industrial production (y-o-y)
-20 -30
Industrial production (m-o-m)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
Shipment and inventory (m-o-m, %)
8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
Shipment growth -6
Inventory growth
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
Capacity utilization rate (%)
90
85
80
75
70
65
60 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
18
Economic Bulletin
7. ‌ Service sector activity Service output increased 0.9 percent month-on-month in January. Wholesale & retail, transportation & storage services and information & communications services rose, while hotels & restaurants and real estate & renting declined. Compared to a year ago, the index rose 2.0 percent. (Percentage change from previous period)
Weight
2017
2019
2018 1
Annual Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
1
1
Q4
Dec
Jan1
Service activity index
100.0
1.9
2.1
0.9
0.4
0.3
0.4
-0.1
0.9
- Wholesale & retail
21.1
0.7
1.5
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
-0.8
1.8
- Transportation & storage services
9.0
1.6
2.1
-0.2
2.7
-0.7
0.0
-1.7
1.8
- Hotels & restaurants
6.2 -1.9
-1.9
-1.2
0.6
-0.2
0.3
-1.5
-1.0
- Information & communications services
8.0
1.6
1.5
0.4
-0.2
0.3
-1.5
0.4
2.5
14.1
5.1
5.8
1.2
0.9
-1.0
1.0
1.3
0.1
- Real estate & renting
3.2
1.2
0.2
4.1
-0.6
1.0
-1.1
-1.1
-0.2
- Professional, scientific & technical services
7.1 -1.6
0.7
1.0
0.5
-0.4
1.6
0.2
2.3
- Business services
4.8
4.2
0.6
0.2
-1.1
-1.2
1.8
1.3
0.1
- Education services
10.6
0.0
0.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.6
0.8
0.0
0.4
- Financial & insurance services
- Healthcare & welfare services
9.4
6.6
5.6
3.4
0.2
7.3
-0.8
1.2
0.0
- Entertainment & leisure
2.2
0.2
-0.6
0.9
-0.4
-0.9
0.4
0.2
3.6
- Membership organizations & personal services
3.2
0.0
0.7
1.3
0.3
-1.0
0.6
1.5
-1.2
- Sewerage & waste management
1.1
0.4
3.1
-0.2
2.0
0.9
0.1
-3.7
0.2
1. Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
Service sector activity (%)
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2
Service sector activity (y-o-y) -4
Service sector activity (m-o-m)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
March 2019
19
The Green Book
Wholesale & retail (%)
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2
Wholesale & retail (y-o-y)
-4 -6
Wholesale & retail (m-o-m)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
January 2019 service output by business (y-o-y, %) Healthcare & social welfare services
8
6 Wholesale & retail
4
2
0
-2
Hotels & restaurants Total index
Professional, scientific & technical services
Publishing & communications services Financial & insurance services
Entertainment & leisure
Education services
Transportation & storage services
-4
Sewerage & waste management
Business services
Membership organizations & personal services
Real estate & renting
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
In February car sales at home fell, as well as department store sales and large discount store sales. The number of Chinese tourists and stock transactions increased. 2019
2018 Jul
Aug
Jan
1
Feb1
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
23.1
-0.4
3.3
2.1
-0.7 -7.7
Car sales at home (y-o-y, %)
3.3
6.8 -18.7
Department store sales (y-o-y, %)
3.2
2.9
4.3
3.9
-3.4
0.5
6.4
Large discount store sales (y-o-y, %)
-2.5
2.0
7.5 -12.2
-1.7
-3.6
4.6 -10.8
Average daily stock transactions (trillion won) Number of Chinese tourists (y-o-y, %)
9.0
8.8
10.8
9.6
8.4
8.7
45.9
41.0
36.4
37.7
35.1
25.3
9.3
9.6
35.1 48.12
1. Preliminary 2. ‌ Advance estimate based on all Chinese entries, which can be different from the statistic released by the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism as it excludes diplomatic and military personnel Sources: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association, Korea Exchange, data provided by retail industries
20
Economic Bulletin
8. ‌ Employment The number of workers on payroll in February increased by 263,000 from a year ago to 26,346,000, and the employment rate (aged 15-64) remained unchanged from a year ago at 65.8 percent. By industry, jobs in services and agriculture rose, while manufacturing jobs declined. By employment status, permanent and daily workers grew, while temporary and self-employed workers continued to decrease.
Number of persons employed and employment growth (thousands)
Number of employed (seasonally adjusted, right) Employment growth (y-o-y, left)
(millions)
1,000
28
800
27
600
26
400
25
200
24
0
23
-200
22
-400
21 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
Employment by industry (%)
100
80
60
Services
40
Construction Manufacturing Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
71.9 71.5 71.1 70.6 70.2 70.1 70.4 70.6 70.4 70.3 70.5 70.9 71.1 71.2 70.9 70.3 70.0 70.1 70.1 70.2 69.9 69.8 70.1 70.7 71.1 71.3
20
7.3 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.4 17.4 17.5 17.2 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.4 17.6 17.5 17.1 16.6 16.7 16.5 16.6 16.5 16.7 16.7 16.5 16.9 16.9 16.7
0
3.4 3.7 4.4 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.0 4.0 3.8 3.8 4.5 5.2 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.3 4.4 4.2 4.2
2017.1 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 2018.1 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 2019.1 2
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
March 2019
21
The Green Book
Employment by status of workers (%)
100
3.7 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.7 3.6 3.7 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.4 21.1 21.0 21.1 21.2 21.2 21.2 21.1 21.0 21.1 21.1 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.6 20.9 20.8
80 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.3 17 17.2 60 18.4 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.9 19.0 18.9 18.8 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.5 17.8 17.5 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.4 18.5 18.1 18.0 18.1 18.2 17.5
Unpaid family workers 40
Self-employed workers Daily workers
20
50.8 51.0 50.6 49.9 49.7 49.6 49.8 50.2 50.0 50.0 50.2 51.1 52.0 52.4 51.5 50.9 50.8 50.8 50.7 51.3 51.2 51.2 51.1 52.3 53.1 53.1
Temporary workers 0
Regular workers
2017.1 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 2018.1 2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10 11 12 2019.1 2
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
2017
2018 Annual
26.73
26.82
Employment rate (%)
60.8
60.7
59.6
61.2
61.1
60.9
59.2
59.2
59.4
(Seasonally adjusted)
60.8
60.7
60.9
60.7
60.5
60.7
60.7
60.7
61.0
- 15 to 64
66.6
66.6
66.0
66.9
66.7
66.8
65.8
65.9
65.8
Employment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
316
97
183
101
17
88
104
19
263
- Manufacturing
-18
-56
45
-91
-91
-88
14
-170
-151
- Construction
119
47
69
16
45
56
64
-19
-3
- Services
209
51
18
125
6
55
-13
113
311
Number of employed (millions)
Q1
Q2
2019
Annual
Q3
Q4
Feb
Jan
Feb
26.28 27.02 27.02 26.97 26.08 26.23 26.35
· Wholesale & retail
41
-72
-74
-50
-87
-77
-92
-67
-60
· Hotels & restaurants
-3
-45
-24
-24
-69
-65
-22
-40
1
· Healthcare & social welfare services
61
125
51
148
142
159
25
179
237
- Wage workers
265
150
228
113
65
192
167
92
296
· Permanent workers
366
345
409
335
293
342
433
279
299
· Temporary workers
-132
-141
-124
-109
-162
-170
-182
-212
-43
31
-54
-57
-113
-67
19
-85
25
40
51
-52
-45
-13
-48
-104
-63
-73
-33
68
-44
-24
-3
-55
-93
-42
-61
-46
· Daily workers - Nonwage workers · Self-employed workers - Male
127
4
75
-14
-48
1
56
-79
72
- Female
189
94
109
115
65
87
47
98
191
- 15 to 29
-1
-3
26
-69
-27
58
44
4
21
- 30 to 39
-29
-61
-29
-33
-91
-92
-34
-126
-115
- 40 to 49
-50
-117
-85
-101
-143
-139
-107
-166
-128
- 50 to 59
152
44
67
62
26
21
35
44
88
- 60 and above
242
234
203
241
252
239
165
264
397
Source: Statistics Korea
22
Economic Bulletin
The number of unemployed persons in February rose 38,000 year-on-year to 1,303,000, and the unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 4.7 percent. The unemployment rate fell among those aged 60 and over, and rose among those aged 30 to 59.
2016
2017
2018
Annual
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
2019 Q3
Q4
Feb
Jan
Feb
Number of unemployed (thousands)
1,009
1,023
Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousands)
34
14
50
19
31
102
50
-76
204
38
- Male
23
12
23
13
15
42
24
-57
112
36
- Female
11
1
27
6
17
60
25
-19
92
2
Unemployment rate (%)
3.7
3.7
3.8
4.3
3.9
3.8
3.4
4.6
4.5
4.7
(Seasonally adjusted)
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.8
4.0
3.8
3.6
4.4
3.7
- 15 to 29
9.8
9.8
9.5
10.0
10.1
9.4
8.3
9.8
8.9
9.5
- 30 to 39
3.1
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.6
3.6
3.0
3.2
3.0
3.5
- 40 to 49
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.8
- 50 to 59
2.3
2.2
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.5
2.9
3.2
- 60 and above
2.7
2.9
3.1
5.4
2.5
2.3
2.4
8.0
7.4
6.8
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
1,073 1,181 1,105 1,065
942 1,265 1,224 1,303
Source: Statistics Korea
Unemployment rate (%)
6
5
4
3
Seasonally adjusted rate Original data
2 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
March 2019
23
The Green Book
The economically inactive population in February decreased 11,000 from a year earlier to 16,734,000, and the labor force participation rate rose 0.3 percentage points to 62.3 percent. The number of persons economically inactive due to rest (up 139,000) and old age (up 25,000) increased, and those due to education (down 135,000) and housework (down 143,000) decreased. Job seekers were up by 120,000.
2016
2017
2018
Annual Annual Annual
Economically inactive population (millions)
Q1
Q2
2019 Q3
Q4
Feb
Jan
Feb
16.19
16.18
16.29 16.62 16.02 16.13 16.38 16.74 16.86 16.73
Labor force participation rate (%)
62.8
63.2
63.1
62.3
63.7
63.5
63.0
62.0
61.9
62.3
(Seasonally adjusted)
62.8
63.2
63.1
63.3
63.1
63.1
63.2
63.0
63.5
63.3
Growth in economically inactive population (y-o-y, thousands)
102
-5
104
68
110
126
112
247
23
-11
- Childcare
-79
-96
-76
-80
-87
-86
-50
-66
-40
-12
- Housework
50
8
76
52
85
94
75
90
-65
-143
- Education
-51
-91
-106
-58
-62
-128
-176
30
-158
-135
- Old age
109
81
15
35
6
16
4
57
22
25
- Rest
34
108
118
107
127
137
103
123
133
139
- Job seeking
20
45
24
15
17
2
64
70
101
120
Source: Statistics Korea
Labor force participation rate (%)
65
64
63
62
61
60
Seasonally adjusted rate Original data
59 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (employment trends)
24
Economic Bulletin
9. ‌ Financial markets 9.1 Stock market KOSPI fell 0.4 percent in February amid increasing concerns about a global economic slowdown. KOSDAQ continued to rise, going up 2.0 percent, backed by foreign investment. (Closing rate)
KOSPI Jan 2019 Feb 2019
KOSDAQ 1
Change
Jan 2019 Feb 2019
Change1
Stock price index (points)
2,205.0
2,195.4
-9.6 (-0.4%)
717
731
14 (2.0%)
Market capitalization (trillion won)
1455.5
1,448.8
-6.7 (-0.5%)
242.2
249.2
7 (2.9%)
5.6
5.6
0 (0.0%)
3.7
4.0
0.3 (8.1%)
36.9
36.8
-0.1 (-0.3%)
10.9
11.0
0.1 (0.9%)
Daily trade (trillion won) Foreign stock ownership (%, %p)
1. Change from the end of the previous month as of end-February 2019 Source: Korea Exchange
Stock prices (monthly average, points)
2,700 2,400 2,100 1,800 1,500 1,200 900 600
KOSPI KOSDAQ
300 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Korea Exchange
9.2 Exchange rate The dollar-won exchange rate rose 1.1 percent in February to 1,124.7 won as the dollar strengthened amid concerns over an economic slowdown in the EU and China. The 100 yen-won exchange rate fell 0.7 percent to 1,015.5 won as the yen weakened against the dollar. March 2019
25
The Green Book
(Closing rate1)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
Change2
1,055.4
1,099.3
1,172.5
1,207.7
1,070.5
1,115.7
1112.7
1,124.7
-1.1
100 Yen-Won 1,002.3
913.0
974.1
1,035.4
949.3
1,008.9
1023.0
1,015.5
0.7
Dollar-Won
2019
1. The exchange rate is based on the closing price at 3:30 p.m., local time. 2. Appreciation from the end of the previous month as of end-February 2019 (%) Source: Bank of Korea
Foreign exchange rates (month-end, â‚Š)
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Dollar-Won 100 Yen-Won
800 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Bank of Korea
9.3 Bond market Korea treasury yields fluctuated in February: The yields rose on the resuming of US-China trade talks and BOK’s affirmation of no rate cuts in the near future, and fell on concerns about global economic slowdown and failure of US-North Korea summit. Yield to maturity (m-o-m, basis points)
0.4 (3 yrs), -0.7 (5 yrs), -1.4 (10 yrs), 1.9 (20 yrs), 0.5 (30 yrs) (Closing rate, %)
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Jan
Feb
2019
Call rate (1 day)
2.77
2.52
2.03
1.52
1.27
1.58
1.89
1.81
1.80
-1.0
CD (91 days)
2.89
2.66
2.13
1.67
1.52
1.66
1.93
1.86
1.89
3.0
Treasury bonds (3 yrs)
2.82
2.86
2.10
1.66
1.64
2.14
1.82
1.81
1.81
0.4
Corporate bonds (3 yrs)
3.29
3.29
2.43
2.11
2.13
2.68
2.29
2.26
2.26
0.5
Treasury bonds (5 yrs)
2.97
3.23
2.28
1.81
1.80
2.34
1.88
1.88
1.88
-0.7
Change1
1. Basis points, change from the previous month as of end-February 2019 Source: Bank of Korea
26
Economic Bulletin
Interest rates (monthly average, yearly, %)
8 7 6 5 4 3 2
Overnight call rate (daily)
1
3-yr Treasury bond yield 3-yr corporate bond yield
0 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Bank of Korea
9.4 Money supply and money market M2 (monthly average) in December rose 6.8 percent from a year ago, continuing upward trends since September 2017. (Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
Annual
2018
M12
6.6
3.8
9.5
10.9
18.6
15.4
9.2
2.7
1.9
846.1
M2
4.2
5.2
4.8
6.6
8.6
7.3
5.5
6.8
6.8
2,699.9
Lf 3
5.3
7.8
6.9
7.0
9.7
8.1
6.7
7.5
7.6
3,809.0
Nov
Dec
Dec 1
1. Balance at end-December 2018, trillion won 2. M1 excludes corporate MMFs and individual MMFs, and includes CMAs 3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3) Source: Bank of Korea
Bank deposits fell in January (up 14.7 trillion won → down 13.6 trillion won) as instant access deposits shrank (down 19.8 trillion won). Time deposits increased (up 3.1 trillion won) as money flowed in from households and local government funds. Asset management company (AMC) deposits rose (down 10.0 trillion won → up 22.6 trillion won) as money market funds (MMFs) increased (up 15.7 trillion won) due to the inflows of corporate funds and government funds. (Change from the end of the previous period, trillion won)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
2018 Nov
2019
Dec
Jan
Jan1
Bank deposits
58.9
37.0
41.0 115.4 100.3
80.8
79.5
0.2
14.7
-13.6 1,629.4
AMC deposits
-16.6
18.8
17.7
47.6
27.9
-1.2
-10.0
22.6 573.6
42.4
44.4
1. Balance at end-January 2018 Source: Bank of Korea
March 2019
27
The Green Book
Total money supply (y-o-y, monthly average balance, %)
35 30 25 20 15 10
Reserve money M1
5 0 2009.1
Lf
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Bank of Korea
Deposits in financial institutions (m-o-m, end of month balance, trillion won)
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Bank of Korea
28
Economic Bulletin
10. Balance of payments Korea’s current account (preliminary) in January posted a surplus of US $2.77 billion, staying in the black for 81 consecutive months. Goods account surpluses grew at a slower pace month-on-month from US $6.53 billion to US $5.61 billion. Growth in goods exports (y-o-y, %) -1.4 (Dec 2018) →-5.4 (Jan 2019)
Growth in goods imports (y-o-y, %) 1.6 (Dec 2018) →-2.0 (Jan 2019)
Export growth by item in January (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis)
13.4 (automobiles), 1.5 (machinery), -5.3 (petroleum products), -17.8 (vessels), -23.3 (semiconductors)
Import growth by category in January (y-o-y, %, customs clearance basis) 0.1 (commodities), -9.0 (capital goods), 8.6 (consumer goods)
Services account deficits decreased month-on-month from US $4.44 billion to US $3.61 billion. Services balance (US $ billion, Dec 2018 → Jan 2019)
-2.20 → -1.86 (travel), -0.57 → -0.28 (transportation), 0.91 → 0.93 (construction), -0.54 → -0.49 (intellectual property rights), -0.76 → -0.85 (manufacturing), -1.31 → -1.06 (others)
Surpluses in the primary income account increased from US $1.16 billion to US $1.40 billion, and deficits in the secondary income account decreased from US $1.62 billion to US $0.63 billion. (US $ billion)
2016
2017
Annual Annual
Q3
2018 Q4
1
Annual
Q1
1
Q2
1
Q3
1
2019 Q4
1
1
Dec
Jan
1
Jan1
Current account
97.92 75.23 25.94 18.85 76.41 11.65 17.25 28.12 19.39 4.82 2.64 2.77
- Goods balance
116.46 113.59 33.09 28.50 111.87 22.53 29.95 34.72 24.67 6.53 7.55 5.61
- Services balance
-17.34 -36.73 -8.62 -10.61 -29.74 -9.31 -6.49 -7.61 -6.33 -1.95 -4.44 -3.61
- Primary income balance
4.57
- Secondary income balance
-5.77 -6.96 -2.47 -1.98 -8.50 -2.88 -1.99 -1.82 -1.81 -0.80 -1.62 -0.63
5.34
3.94
2.94
2.78 1.31 -4.22 2.83 2.86 1.04 1.16 1.40
1. Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
March 2019
29
The Green Book
Current account balance (US $ billion)
18 15 12 9 6 3
Current account Goods account Services account
0 -3 -6 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
Travel balance (US $ billion)
4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2
Travel revenue Travel payment Travel balance
-3 -4 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
The capital and financial account (preliminary) in January posted an outflow of US $3.00 billion. Capital & financial account balance* (US $ billion)
7.03 (Aug 2018) → 9.78 (Sep) → 10.28 (Oct) → 3.87 (Nov) → 5.44 (Dec) → 3.00 (Jan 2019) * Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows.
Net outflows in foreign direct investment (FDI) increased from a year earlier in January (US $0.24 billion → US $1.67 billion) as Korean FDI (US $1.56 billion → US $3.27 billion) rose faster than inbound FDI (US $1.32 billion → US $1.60 billion). 30
Economic Bulletin
Net outflows increased year-on-year in portfolio investment (US $3.34 billion → US $4.82 billion) as foreign investment in Korean shares declined (US $7.10 billion → US $1.07 billion) faster than Korean investment in foreign shares fell (US $10.44 billion → US $5.88 billion). Inflows slowed year-on-year in financial derivatives investment (US $1.31 billion → US $0.16 billion) and rose in other investment (US $0.15 billion → US $3.49 billion). Current account surpluses will slightly improve in February in year-on-year terms compared with the previous month given a rise in trade surpluses (US $2.80 billion in February 2018 → US $3.10 billion in February 2019).
Capital & financial account balance (US $ billion)
15 12 9 6 3 0
Capital & financial account
-3
Portfolio investment
-6
Direct investment Financial derivatives
-9 -12 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Bank of Korea (balance of payments trends)
March 2019
31
The Green Book
11. Prices 11.1 Consumer prices Consumer prices in February rose 0.4 percent from previous month and 0.5 percent from the same period of the previous year.
(Percentage change)
2018 Apr May Jun
Jul
2019
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
Feb
Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
0.2
0.0 -0.2 -0.2
0.9
0.8
-0.2 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1
0.4
(y-o-y)
1.5
1.5
1.4
2.1
2.0
0.5
1.5
1.1
2.0
1.3
0.8
Source: Statistics Korea
Consumer price inflation (%)
6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Consumer price inflation (y-o-y) Consumer price inflation (m-o-m)
-1 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
Fresh food prices fell (up 2.5% in January → down 1.4% in February, y-o-y) as vegetable and meat prices declined. Fresh food prices in February (m-o-m/y-o-y, %)
1.9/-1.7 (agricultural products), 1.7/-15.1 (vegetables), 0.0/-1.6 (meat)
Domestic oil prices declined at a faster pace compared to a year ago (down 9.7% in January → down 11.3% in February, y-o-y). Public service prices continued to fall (down 0.3% in January → down 0.3% in February, y-o-y) due to the expanded coverage of national health insurance and low mobile communications costs. Personal service prices continued to rise (up 2.5% in January → up 2.5% in February, y-o-y). 32
Economic Bulletin
Consumer price inflation in major sectors Total
Agricultural, Manufactured Public Housing Public Personal Oil livestock & utilities rents services services fishery products products products
Jan (y-o-y, %)
0.8
2.5
-0.7
-9.7
1.4
0.2
-0.3
2.5
Feb (y-o-y, %)
0.5
-1.4
-0.8
-11.3
1.3
0.1
-0.3
2.5
-
-0.11
-0.25
-0.51
0.05
0.01
-0.04
0.81
- Contribution (%p) Source: Statistics Korea
Core inflation, which excludes oil and agricultural products, grew somewhat in February (up 1.2% → up 1.3%, y-o-y). (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2018 Jul
2019
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec
Jan
Feb
Consumer prices excluding oil and agricultural products 0.8
0.9
1.3
1.2
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.3
Consumer prices excluding food and energy
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.1
1.0
1.1
1.0
Source: Statistics Korea
In February basic necessities price inflation stayed stable at 0.0 percent due to low oil and fresh food prices. Fresh food price inflation fell for the first time in 7 months (down 5.2%, y-o-y). (Percentage change from same period in previous year)
2018
2019
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Consumer prices for basic necessities
1.1
1.5
2.5
2.6
2.3
1.3
0.4
0.0
Fresh food prices
-1.3
4.8
11.0
11.2
10.5
6.6
1.2
-5.2
Source: Statistics Korea
Contribution to consumer price inflation (%p)
5
Personal services
3
Public services Housing rents 1
Public utilities Manufactured products Agricultural, livestock & fishery products
-1 2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends)
March 2019
33
The Green Book
Prices (y-o-y , %)
9
6
3
0
Consumer price inflation Core inflation
-3
-6
Producer price inflation
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Sources: Statistics Korea (consumer price trends), Bank of Korea (producer prices)
11.2 International oil and commodity prices International oil prices rose in February due to OPEC’s output cuts and as global financial markets became stable. Dubai crude (US $/barrel)
62.35 (1st week Feb) → 63.61 (2nd week) → 66.79 (3rd week) → 65.85 (4th week)
International oil prices (US $/B)
140 120 100 80 60 40 20
WTI Dubai crude
0 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
34
Economic Bulletin
(US $/barrel, period average)
2017
2019
2018
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Feb
Dubai crude
53.2
69.7
64.0
72.1
74.2
68.3
57.3
59.1
64.6
WTI crude
50.9
64.9
62.9
67.9
69.4
59.3
49.0
51.6
55.0
Brent crude
54.7
71.7
67.2
75.0
75.8
68.6
57.7
60.2
64.4
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Domestic gasoline prices continued to fall in February due to retail competition. Domestic gasoline prices (won/liter)
1,344.0 (1st week Feb) → 1,342.7 (2nd week) → 1,342.9 (3rd week) → 1,345.9 (4th week)
International gasoline prices (US $/barrel)
60.0 (4th week Jan) → 58.7 (5th week) → 61.4 (1st week Feb) → 62.8 (2nd week)
Dollar-won exchange rate (won)
1,126 (4th week Jan) → 1,117 (5th week) → 1,117 (1st week Feb) → 1,123 (2nd week)
(Won/liter, period average)
2017
2019
2018
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Feb
Gasoline prices
1,491
1,581
1,558
1,580
1,622
1,565
1,433
1,351
1,344
Diesel prices
1,283
1,392
1,353
1,380
1,423
1,411
1,324
1,249
1,243
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
Dubai crude prices and import prices (thousand won/B)
Dubai crude (import prices, left) Dubai international prices (right)
(US $/B)
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Korea National Oil Corporation
March 2019
35
The Green Book
International corn, wheat and soybean prices declined in February due to stable supplies. International grain prices in February (monthly average prices, m-o-m, %) -0.9 (corn), -2.9 (wheat), -0.1 (soybeans)
Copper and nickel prices rose due to supply shortages and as US-China trade talks resumed. Aluminum prices went up as investors’ demand grew amid low prices. Nonferrous metal prices in February (monthly average prices, m-o-m, %) 5.8 (copper), 0.7 (aluminum), 10.4 (nickel)
(Period average)
2017 Reuters Index1 (Sep 18, 1931=100)
2019
2018
Annual
Annual
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Dec
Jan
Feb
2,472
2,337
2,342
2,317
2,309
2,382
2,373
2,386
2,378
1. A weighted average index of 17 major commodities Source: KOREA PDS
International commodity prices (points)
(points)
4,000
500 450
3,000
400 350 300
2,000
250 200
1,000
150
CRB (left) Reuters index (right)
100
0 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Korea PDS * CRB demonstrates a futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.
36
Economic Bulletin
12. Real estate market 12.1 Housing market Housing prices nationwide fell 0.12 percent month-on-month in February. Housing prices declined 0.13 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area which includes Seoul (down 0.19%), Gyeonggi Province (down 0.11%) and Incheon (down 0.05%). Housing prices fell 0.04 percent in the five metropolitan cities and 0.14 percent in the eight provinces. Housing prices in five metropolitan cities (m-o-m, %)
Busan (-0.13), Daegu (0.08), Gwangju (0.14), Daejeon (0.12), Ulsan (-0.43)
Housing sales prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Dec
2019 Feb
Annual
Jan
Feb
Nationwide
1.7
3.5
0.7
1.5
1.1
-0.01
0.20
-0.26
-0.15 -0.12
Seoul metropolitan area
1.5
4.4
1.3
2.4
3.3
0.07
0.46
-0.28
-0.15 -0.13
- Seoul
1.1
4.6
2.1
3.6
6.2
0.04
0.94
-0.39
-0.20 -0.19
· Gangnam
1.2
5.2
2.5
4.4
6.5
-0.07
1.20
-0.60
-0.31 -0.29
· Gangbuk
1.1
3.9
1.8
2.9
5.9
0.16
0.67
-0.17
-0.09 -0.08
1.9
2.7
0.2
0.7
-0.9
-0.08 -0.04
-0.25
-0.15 -0.10
1
2
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
1. Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Housing sales prices (m-o-m, %)
3
2
1
0
Nationwide
-1
Seoul metropolitan area Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
-2 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
March 2019
37
The Green Book
Housing rental prices nationwide declined 0.22 percent month-on-month in February. Housing rental prices fell 0.30 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area and declined 0.15 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Housing rental prices in major districts in the Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)
Gangnam (-1.57), Seocho (-0.96), Songpa(-0.71), Gangdong (-1.15), Guangmyung (-1.08)
Housing rental prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018
2019
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Dec
Feb Annual Jan
Feb
Nationwide
3.4
4.8
1.3
0.6
-1.8 -0.19 -0.09 -0.44 -0.22 -0.22
Seoul metropolitan area
4.7
7.1
2.0
1.4
-1.5 -0.19 -0.09 -0.58 -0.28 -0.30
- Seoul
3.6
7.2
2.0
2.0
0.3 -0.13 0.17 -0.75 -0.32 -0.43
¡ Gangnam
3.3
7.9
1.8
2.6
-0.3 -0.19 0.17 -1.10 -0.50 -0.60
¡ Gangbuk
3.8
6.5
2.1
1.5
0.8 -0.06 0.17 -0.38 -0.13 -0.24
2.2
2.8
0.7
-0.1
-2.1 -0.18 -0.09 -0.31 -0.16 -0.15
1
2
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
1. Southern Seoul 2. Northern Seoul Source: Korea Appraisal Board
Housing rental prices (m-o-m, %)
3
2
1
0
Nationwide
-1
Seoul metropolitan area Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area
-2 2009.1
2010.1
2001.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
There were 50,286 housing transactions in January, down 9.7 percent from a month earlier (55,681) and down 28.5 percent from a year ago (70,354).
Housing transactions
(Thousands)
2016 2017 1
2018
1
2019
1
Annual Annual Annual Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan
Nationwide
88
79
71
70
70
93
72
68
65
64
66
76
93
65
56
50
1. Monthly average Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport
38
Economic Bulletin
12.2 Land market Land prices nationwide rose 0.31 percent month-on-month in January. Land prices rose 0.36 percent in the Seoul metropolitan area which includes Seoul (up 0.39%), Gyeonggi Province (up 0.32%) and Incheon (up 0.34%). Land price growth slowed to 0.24 percent in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area. Land prices in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %) Daeugu (0.39), Gwangju (0.43), North Chungcheng Province (0.21)
Land prices
(Percentage change from previous period)
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual
2019
Q3
Q4
Jan
Dec
Jan
Nationwide
1.96
2.40
2.70
3.88
4.58
1.25
1.22
0.33
0.34
0.31
Seoul
2.66
2.69
2.97
4.32
6.11
1.87
1.74
0.42
0.43
0.39
Gyeonggi
1.24
1.73
2.23
3.45
4.42
1.16
1.19
0.26
0.36
0.32
Incheon
1.35
1.95
1.74
3.10
3.59
0.94
1.14
0.21
0.33
0.34
Areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area
2.06
2.77
2.97
3.97
3.65
0.89
0.83
0.32
0.25
0.24
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
There were 240,000 land transactions in January, down 1.4 percent from previous month (243,000) and down 19.7 percent from a year ago (298,000). Land transactions (m-o-m, %)
Incheonl (-8.0), Busan (-20.3), Gwangju (-15.1)
Land prices 6 5 4 3 2 1
Metropolitan city
0
City County National average
-1 -2 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
March 2019
39
The Green Book
Land and consumer prices (y-o-y, %)
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10
Land price inflation
-20
Consumer price inflation
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
2012
2017
Sources: Korea Appraisal Board (land prices), Statistics Korea (consumer prices)
Vacant land transactions decreased 4.5 percent from previous month (98,000 → 94,000) accounting for 39.0 percent of the total land transactions. The index fell 6.1 percent compared with a year ago (100,000).
Land transactions
(Land lots, thousands)
2017
2018 1
2019
Annual
Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct
Nov Dec Jan
276
298
252
320
265
271
255
272
248
232
282
249
243
240
Seoul
32
35
31
43
26
29
24
34
28
32
35
22
21
22
Gyeonggi
75
81
75
91
76
76
75
85
80
78
92
77
67
68
Incheon
16
16
15
15
16
18
15
12
12
12
15
14
15
14
Nationwide
1. Monthly average Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation
Land transactions (thousand ㎥)
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
Areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area Seoul metropolitan area
50,000
0 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Korea Appraisal Board
40
Economic Bulletin
13. ‌ Composite indices of business cycle indicators Industrial output went up 0.8 percent month-on-month in January. Mining & manufacturing (up 0.5%), construction (up 2.1%), services (up 0.9%) and public administration (up 0.6%) all increased. Compared to a year ago, the index rose 0.6 percent.
Index of all industry production (%)
15
10
5
0
-5
Industrial output (y-o-y) -10
Industrial output (m-o-m)
2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index declined 0.1 points month-on-month to 99.1. Three components of the index rose, while the other four either fell or remained unchanged. Components of the coincident composite index in January (m-o-m, %)
value of construction completed (1.2), retail sales (0.3), imports (1.0), mining & manufacturing production (-0.9), nonfarm payroll employment (-0.1),) service output (0.0), domestic shipments (0.0),
The cyclical indicator of the leading composite index fell 0.4 points from previous month to 98.5. One component of the index rose, while the other seven declined. Components of the leading composite index in January (m-o-m)
ratio of export to import prices (0.6%), inventory circulation indicator (-1.1%p), consumer expectations index (-3.0p), domestic shipments of machinery (-2.5%), value of construction orders received (-2.6%), ratio of job openings to job seekers (-4.1%p), KOSPI (-0.8%), spreads between long & short term interest rates (-0.17%p)
March 2019
41
The Green Book
2018 Jun
Index of all industry production (m-o-m, %) (y-o-y, %)
Jul
Aug
Sep
2019 Oct
1
Nov
1
Jan1
Dec
-0.6
0.7
0.4
-1.4
0.8
-1.0
-0.3
0.8
0.2
1.4
1.6
-4.9
7.6
0.2
0.4
0.6
109.5 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.7 109.8 109.8 110.0
Coincident composite index (2015=100) (m-o-m, %)
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.2
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 100.3 100.0
0.1
99.9
99.7
99.6
99.3
99.2
99.1
(m-o-m, p)
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
113.0 113.2 113.1 113.2 113.2 113.3 113.4 113.4
Leading composite index (2015=100) (m-o-m, %)
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.0
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index 100.4 100.3 (m-o-m, p) -0.1 -0.1
99.9
99.6
99.3
99.1
98.9
98.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
1. Preliminary
Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index (points)
110
105
100
95
90 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
2017.1
2018.1
2019.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
Cyclical indicator of leading composite index (points)
110
105
100
95
90 2009.1
2010.1
2011.1
2012.1
2013.1
2014.1
2015.1
2016.1
Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trends)
42
Economic Bulletin
01 ‌ 2019 work report 02 Measures to boost ventures
March 2019
Policy Issue 43
Policy Issue
2019 Work Report Government to promote investment and job creation, as well as support the working class and local economies
The Ministry of Economy and Finance will pursue the following over 2019 to help boost the economy and support the working class and local economies.
1. Promote investment and support job creation - Promote corporate investment in large-scale projects: 8.3 trillion won worth of corporate projects, the semiconductor cluster development project1) and more than 6.4 trillion won worth of private investment in public projects - Increase public investment: Expand SOC and energy investment by public institutions to 53 trillion won, and encourage government-owned enterprises to invest in public projects by allowing dividend cuts for government shares - Have frontloaded 61 percent of fiscal spending in the first half, focusing on job creation projects and SOC projects - Promote the ‘mutually beneficial’ employment model2) : Provide a support package which includes cheap rent for industrial sites, corporate tax cuts and support for facilities construction, as well as daycare centers in work places, housing facilities within the industrial site and job training programs 1) 120 trillion won worth of investment to be made over the next 10 years in the development of the cluster near the Seoul metropolitan area 2) Which refers to low wage local jobs created according to the agreement reached among management, labor and local governments
44
Economic Bulletin
- Increase social service jobs: Add 29,000 caring jobs for which demand is growing, such as day care jobs and elderly care jobs, and 66,000 other social service jobs, such as first aid jobs and physical activity instructors for the physically challenged
2. Improve regulations and develop new industries - Promote regulatory sandboxes: Work on commercializing 100 new technologies under regulatory sandboxes this year - Work actively on regulatory reform: Work on whether or not the regulations should exist, starting with those on national contracts and FX transactions - Improve regulations on new industries, including remote healthcare - Strengthen support for the four promising services3) and the four new industries4) - Work to boost the four major manufacturing industries5): Work on shortterm measures, long-term measures including plans to 2030, and export promotion measures
3. Support the working class - Expand tax support for spending on employee welfare: Large corporations, if they have invested in SME employee welfare funds, to receive a tax deduction of additional 10 percent for their investments - Support small merchants: Have lowered credit card processing fees and introduced a new payment system with no processing fees, Zero Pay, expand traditional market gift certificates, as well as those for local products, and decide on small-merchant-only businesses in the second half - Strengthen social safety nets: Draw up measures to help young adults from low income families have opportunities, increase EITC, and expand basic social security benefits and retirement pensions - Promote a social economy: Increase funds6), and promote social services offered by local social economy activist groups, such as voluntary care giving and school meal preparation
4. Work to boost local economies - Continue with the 192 local SOC projects, 8.6 trillion won worth of government investment, and work on the government’s local development plan, the Initiative for Balanced Regional Development7) - Work to increase local government tax revenues, and seek gradual transfer of central government responsibilities to local governments - Work on the use of national properties for the 11 land development projects - Identify citizen safety as the first priority of public institutions, and revise their pay systems to reflect different duties
3) Tourism, healthcare, contents and logistics 4) Smart factories, future cars, fintech and bio-health 5) Cars, vessels, display panels and petrochemicals 6) The Korea Credit Guarantee Fund to increase its social economy funds to 500 billion won by 2022, and the government to raise 300 billion won worth of new funds by 2023 7) Revise the current budget review system to fast get started on the projects
March 2019
45
Policy Issue
Measures to Boost Ventures
The government unveiled its measures to boost ventures on March 6, 2019, which covers plans to promote high-tech startups and venture capital, as well as plans to support scaleups and develop secondary markets. The following is a summary of the measures:
1. Promote high-tech startups - Promote startups in bio-health, fintech, AI and ICT 1) Bio-health: Promote the sharing of medical laboratories and research data with startups, help commercialize their products and services, and provide financial support worth 600 billion won 2) Fintech: Run testbeds for 20 new services in April, improve P2P related regulations, revise rules regulating financial institutions’ investment in fintech firms, and launch 15 billion won worth of fintech funds 3) AI and ICT: Introduce a ‘Future Unicorn 50’ program, in which 50 promising ICT startups are selected every year to be provided with across the board support, including financial support and professional consultation services, and provide AI startups with 38.8 billion won worth of support over 2019 - Promote tech professional startups
46
1) Financial support: Invest 600 billion won by 2022 in funds raised to help commercialize new technologies, provide tech startups with 190 billion won worth of guarantees, and launch 23 billion won worth of new funds to support high tech companies in Daeduck Valley Economic Bulletin
2) Further develop TIPS1): Break down TIPS into three (Pre-TIPS, TIPS and Post-TIPS) and expand the program to 500 startups with TIPS and 50 startups with Post-TIPS by 2022 3) Promote professor startups, as well as student startups: Reform evaluation systems in universities in a way to encourage professors and students to try commercializing their research outcomes
2. Promote venture capital - Work to increase private investment in ventures 1) Introduce Business Development Company (BDC)2) to venture capital: Work on tax support for BDC venture capital investing more than 40 percent of the fund in startups 2) Introduce Simple Agreement for Future Equity (SAFE)3) 3) Attract small investors: Allow a pool of small investors to invest in private equity fund of funds - Promote angel investment and crowdfunding
1) Angel investment: Provide angel investors with an up to 200 percent guarantee for the amount they invested, and Korea Technology Finance Corporation to launch a special guarantee program worth 10 billion won for the purpose 2) Crowdfunding: Raise the fundraising ceiling from 0.7 billion won to 1.5 billion won, expand companies eligible for crowdfunding campaigns from companies with up to seven years of business operation to all SMEs, and give capital gains tax exemptions for investment in tech SMEs with up to three years of operation
3. Support transition from startups to scaleups, and promote their going into overseas markets - Support transition from startups to scaleups
1) Strengthen the Industrial Bank of Korea’s (IBK’s) scaleup support program: Introduce a Silicon Valley Bank model4) to the IBK, in which the bank will work with major venture capital firms to more actively participate in scaleup support 2) Launch scaleup funds: Raise scaleup funds worth 12 trillion won over the four years from now, and work for new investment worth five trillion won a year to flow into ventures in 2022 3) Provide guarantees through pilot programs designed to help brilliant ventures faced with deficits, such as 10 billion won worth of guarantees per company through Korea Technology Finance Corporation, as well as
1) Tech Incubator Program for Startups 2) An organization that invests in small companies and helps them grow in the initial stage of their development, its shares being listed on major stock exchange and traded 3) An investment contract between a startup and an investor, where the investor provides capital to the startup and the startup provides the investor with a warrant to issue stocks at a later time 4) Banks work together with major venture capital firms to extend loans to the companies funded by those venture capital firms
March 2019
47
Policy Issue
promote intellectual property (IP)-based financing by doubling the size of IP funds to 220 billion won - Promote going into overseas markets
1) Attract foreign venture capital: Increase the size of the foreign venture capital funds (2.1 trillion won) by 300 billion won, and promote Korean ventures’ cooperating with global companies for overseas market entry 2) Open venture support centers in Seattle and New Deli in June and August, respectively, and transform 70 overseas spaces owned by the public sector into offices for Korean ventures 3) Help Korean ventures go into the ASEAN countries and Taiwan, of which the market Korean ventures want to enter, and support exchanges between Korean startups and startups in those countries
4. Develop secondary markets - Promote corporate investment, as well as venture capital investment
1) Ease corporate shareholding regulations and give tax incentives: Work to raise large conglomerates’ subsidiary shareholding ceiling and allow the holding of non-affiliate stocks, and give capital gains tax exemptions to venture holding companies for the return on their venture capital investment 2) Encourage large enterprises and financial institutions to launch a joint fund of funds: The joint fund will invest in ventures, and the corporate investors will be given the first priority if there are M&A deals for the ventures 3) Promote M&As: Raise one trillion won worth of new M&A funds by 2021, as well as increase the size of the current M&A funds worth 1.3 trillion won as of now
- Develop secondary markets for angel investment
1) Raise 200 billion won worth of funds over the four years from now to purchase shares held by angel investors 2) Give capital gains tax exemptions for angel investment
5. Create a startup-friendly environment - Promote the use of regulatory sandboxes: Work for startups to produce more than 100 cases of successfully applying regulatory sandboxes - Work to attract high quality human resources to ventures, as well as grow high tech professionals: Increase capital gains tax exemptions for stock options from 20 million won to 30 million won, and grow as many as 10,000 AI and data analytics professionals by 2023 - Build a startup complex, and strengthen the startup centers in the Pangyo valley
48
Economic Bulletin
01 Korea to help exporters amid slowing global demand 02 External debt amounts to US $440.6 billion in 2018, soundness indicators stable 03 Korea to cut stock transaction tax 04 Korean FDI posts US $49.78 billion in 2018 05 Korea grows 2.7% in 2018 (preliminary)
Economic News Briefing
Economic News Briefing
Korea to help exporters amid slowing global demand The Korean government on March 4 unveiled its measures to help exporters, focusing on financial difficulties amid slowing global demand, as well as on supporting export hopefuls. Following is a summary of the measures. - Help exporters faced with financial difficulties: The government will increase its support for export financing by 3 trillion won this year to 235 trillion won, and will introduce new guarantee programs, which include 100 billion won worth of contract-based guarantees available to export hopefuls with written export contracts and 1.3 trillion won worth of buyer credit guarantees. - Help diversify markets: A center for plant construction will be open in Uzbekistan this year, as well as the ASEAN Desk will be added to KOTRA (Korea Trade Investment Promotion Agency). - Improve support system: The current support systems will be transformed into one working on different demand, such as providing export hopefuls with professional assistance in their following regulatory procedures needed to export their products and launching a 3 trillion won worth of fund to help medium-sized exporters.
External debt amounts to US $440.6 billion in 2018, soundness indicators stable Korea’s external debt amounted to US $440.6 billion as of the end of 2018, an increase of US $28.6 billion from a year ago. Short-term debt amounted to US $126.6 billion, up US $10.6 billion year-on-year, and long-term debt was US $314.0 billion, up US $17.9 billion from a year ago. External debt rose due mostly to increased bond issuance by banks and the public sector. External debt, 2018
(US $billion)
Mar
Jun
2018 Sep Dec
412.0
427.0
433.3
441.7
440.6
-1.1
28.6
104.8
116.0
120.5
125.0
127.7
126.6
-1.1
10.6
277.4
296.1
306.5
308.3
314.0
314.0
0
17.9
2015
2016
2017
Total debt
396.1
382.2
-Short-term
104.3
-Long-term
291.7
Change Change (q-o-q) (y-o-y)
* Source: International Investment Position (IIP) at the end of 2018 (Bank of Korea, February 27, 2019)
External debt soundness indicators remained stable, as the ratio of short-term external debt to total external debt stayed low at 28.7 percent and the ratio of short-term external debt to foreign exchange reserves at 31.4 percent. 50
Economic Bulletin
Korea to cut stock transaction tax The government will cut taxes on stock transactions this year to support the secondary market for venture firms, as well as promote venture capital. The new tax rates are as follows:
- A cut of 0.05 percentage points for stocks listed in KOSPI and KOSDAQ to 0.10 percent and 0.25 percent, respectively - A cut of 0.05 percentage points for unlisted stocks to 0.45 percent - A cut of 0.2 percentage points for KONEX stocks to 0.10 percent to promote venture capital - The special tax for rural development of 0.15 percent, levied on KOSPI transactions, to remain unchanged
The government will also change capital gains taxes on stock transactions, and will impose taxes only on net gains earned throughout the year, losses deducted from the taxable sum. The change will allow transfer of losses between domestic and foreign stock transactions, and will take effect from January 1, 2020.
Korean FDI posts US $49.78 billion in 2018 Korean FDI amounted to US $49.78 billion in 2018, rising 11.6 percent compared with US $44.60 billion of the previous year. Korean FDI flowed mainly into manufacturing (32.9%) and finance & insurance (32.6%) in Asia (34.1%), Europe (23.5%) and North America (22.8%).
Korea grows 2.7% in 2018 (preliminary) Korea’s real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 2.7 percent in 2018, according to the preliminary data released by the Bank of Korea (BOK) on March 5. On the production side, agriculture, forestry & fisheries grew 1.5 percent. Manufacturing grew 3.6 percent led by electrical and electronic devices. Construction fell 4.2 percent as building construction and civil engineering works both declined. Services grew 2.8 percent backed by healthcare & welfare services. March 2019
51
Economic News Briefing
On the expenditure side, private consumption and government consumption increased 2.8 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively. Construction investment decreased 4.0 percent as building construction and civil engineering works both fell. Facility investment fell 1.6 percent due to weak machinery. Exports increased 4.2 percent backed by semiconductors, and imports increased 1.7 percent amid increasing demand for crude oil, coal and petroleum products.
GDP by production and expenditure* 2017
1
(Percentage change from previous period)
2018
2018 (q-o-q)
1
Annual Annual
1
20181(y-o-y)3
2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
GDP
3.1
2.7
1.0
0.6
0.6
1.0
2.8
2.8
2.0
3.1
Agriculture, forestry & fisheries
0.3
1.5
6.0
-2.8
-5.5
6.1
4.1
1.2
-2.4
3.2
Manufacturing
4.4
3.6
1.6
0.6
2.3
0.9
2.7
3.2
2.8
5.5
Construction
7.1
-4.2
2.1
-3.1
-5.7
1.0
0.2
-1.6
-8.1
-5.8
Services4
2.1
2.8
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.6
3.2
3.0
2.4
2.7
Private consumption
2.6
2.8
0.7
0.3
0.5
1.0
3.5
2.8
2.5
2.5
Government consumption
3.4
5.6
2.2
0.3
1.5
3.0
5.8
4.8
4.6
7.1
Facilities investment
14.6
-1.6
3.4
-5.7
-4.4
4.4
7.3
-3.0
-7.4
-2.7
Construction investment
7.6
-4.0
1.8
-2.1
-6.7
1.2
1.8
-1.5
-8.9
-5.9
Intellectual property investment
3.0
1.9
0.3
-0.7
0.9
0.1
3.5
2.2
1.6
0.6
Exports
1.9
4.2
4.4
0.4
3.9
-1.5
1.6
4.8
3.1
7.2
Imports
7.0
1.7
4.9
-3.0
-0.7
1.5
4.2
2.0
-1.8
2.5
*At 2010 chained prices 1. Preliminary 2. Seasonally adjusted 3. Original data 4. ‌ Wholesale & retail, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communications services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business services, public administration, defense, education services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & other services are included.
52
Economic Bulletin
01 National accounts 02 Production, shipment and inventory 03 Production capacity and operation ratio 04 Consumer goods sales index 05 Machinery orders received and facility investment index 06 Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received 07 Composite indexes of business cycle indicators, CSI and BSI 08 Prices 09 Employment (I) 10 Employment (II) 11 Balance of payments (I) 12 Balance of payments (II) 13 Financial indicators 14 Monetary indicators 15 Exchange rates
Statistical Appendices
Statistical Appendices
1 National accounts (year-on-year change, %, chained 2010 year prices)
Real GDP Period
Agri., fores. & fisheries
Final consumption Private Manufacturing expenditure consumption
Gross fixed capital formation Construction
Facilities
2011
3.7
-2.0
6.5
2.7
2.9
0.8
-3.4
4.7
2012
2.3
-0.9
2.4
2.2
1.9
-0.5
-3.9
0.1 -0.8
2013
2.9
3.1
3.6
2.2
1.9
3.3
5.5
2014
3.3
3.6
3.5
2.0
1.7
3.4
1.1
6.0
2015
2.8
-0.4
1.8
2.4
2.2
5.1
6.6
4.7
5.6
10.3
-1.0
2016
2.9
-2.8
2.4
3.0
2.5
p
3.1
0.3
4.4
2.8
2.6
8.6
7.6
14.6
2018p
2.7
1.5
3.6
3.5
2.8
-2.2
-4.0
-1.6
2011 Ⅰ
4.9
-9.3
11.4
3.3
3.7
-0.7
-8.2
8.3
Ⅱ
3.6
-2.5
6.5
3.3
3.7
2.5
-2.5
8.3
Ⅲ
3.3
-5.8
5.6
2.8
2.5
1.7
-2.2
3.4
Ⅳ
3.0
7.1
3.4
1.7
1.7
-0.3
-2.0
-0.9
2017
2012 Ⅰ
4.9
-9.3
11.4
3.3
3.7
-0.7
-8.2
8.3
Ⅱ
3.6
-2.5
6.5
3.3
3.7
2.5
-2.5
8.3
Ⅲ
3.3
-5.8
5.6
2.8
2.5
1.7
-2.2
3.4
Ⅳ
3.0
7.1
3.4
1.7
1.7
-0.3
-2.0
-0.9
2013 Ⅰ
2.1
-1.2
2.7
1.5
1.5
-3.2
1.2
-12.3
Ⅱ
2.7
0.1
3.6
2.2
1.9
4.2
8.9
-3.2
Ⅲ
3.2
4.3
3.8
2.4
1.9
4.9
7.5
2.3 11.7
Ⅳ
3.5
7.0
4.2
2.6
2.2
6.5
3.5
2014 Ⅰ
3.9
5.9
4.7
2.9
2.8
6.2
4.5
7.5
Ⅱ
3.5
4.5
4.7
1.8
1.7
3.7
0.3
8.1
Ⅲ
3.3
2.7
3.1
2.0
1.4
3.6
2.3
4.3
Ⅳ
2.7
2.4
1.8
1.6
1.1
0.7
-1.7
4.1
2015 Ⅰ
1.1
1.8
1.4
3.8
4.0
5.1
2.6
8.5
Ⅱ
2.4
-3.0
0.9
2.0
1.7
3.8
4.6
4.1
Ⅲ
3.0
0.3
2.2
2.3
2.2
6.0
7.6
6.1
Ⅳ
3.2
-4.0
2.7
3.5
3.5
6.5
9.6
3.5
2016 Ⅰ
3.0
-2.4
2.1
3.0
2.4
3.2
8.4
-3.6
Ⅱ
3.5
1.1
2.7
3.8
3.6
5.2
9.4
-1.6
Ⅲ
2.7
-4.5
1.7
3.3
2.8
5.8
11.0
-2.5
Ⅳ
2.9
1.9
1.4
7.8
11.9
3.3
2.6
-4.6
2017 Ⅰ
2.9
-1.9
4.8
2.2
2.1
11.0
11.3
16.1
Ⅱ
2.8
0.5
3.6
2.5
2.4
10.0
8.5
17.9
p
Ⅲ
3.8
0.4
6.4
3.0
2.6
9.2
8.0
16.3
Ⅳ
2.8
1.5
2.7
3.5
3.4
5.0
3.8
8.6
2018p Ⅰ
2.8
4.1
2.7
4.0
3.5
3.7
1.8
7.3
Ⅱ
2.8
1.2
3.2
3.3
2.8
-1.3
-1.5
-3.0
Ⅲ
2.0
-2.4
2.8
3.0
2.5
-6.6
-8.9
-7.4
Ⅳ
3.1
3.2
5.5
3.6
2.5
-3.8
-5.9
-2.7
p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
54
Economic Bulletin
2 Production, shipment and inventory (constant prices, 2015=100)
Production index* Period 2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12p 2019 1p
Shipment index*
y-o-y change (%)
102.2 104.7 106.1 98.3 102.3 99.7 108.3 103.4 104.8 105.1 105.4 102.3 106.9 105.2 109.9 98.8 90.6 105.6 99.7 102.6 104.7 102.3 98.0 98.7 104.5 108.9 111.5 100.6 98.7 110.9 104.1 104.8 105.5 104.8 101.2 109.4 99.7 109.3 107.3 105.7 93.1 108.1 106.2 107.1 107.5 108.2 105.2 102.1 112.3 109.4 108.1 105.8
2.2 2.4 1.3 1.1 2.2 1.3 3.8 5.2 2.4 5.4 -2.7 -1.1 2.0 0.1 4.3 -0.8 2.0 2.3 -1.7 5.4 3.2 1.9 3.5 -1.3 -0.6 5.9 6.1 1.8 8.9 5.0 4.4 2.1 0.8 2.4 3.3 10.8 -4.6 0.4 -3.8 5.1 -5.7 -2.5 2.0 2.2 1.9 3.2 4.0 -6.7 12.6 0.1 0.7 0.1
Inventory index*
y-o-y change (%)
101.5 102.7 102.7 98.7 102.0 98.2 107.1 101.6 103.2 102.9 103.1 99.5 103.5 101.4 106.3 97.6 91.3 107.2 100.4 102.1 103.4 100.6 96.3 97.8 102.9 107.1 111.3 97.8 97.2 109.9 102.6 102.3 104.6 101.7 98.9 108.0 96.8 108.0 104.6 102.1 90.9 105.5 101.7 104.6 104.2 102.3 101.6 100.4 108.9 105.9 104.0 101.6
1.5 1.2 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.3 3.2 2.9 1.2 4.8 -3.7 -2.1 0.3 -1.5 3.1 -2.0 1.7 2.9 -1.3 4.1 2.0 0.8 1.8 -1.5 -1.8 5.3 6.0 0.2 6.5 2.5 2.2 0.2 1.2 1.1 2.7 10.4 -5.9 0.8 -6.0 4.4 -6.5 -4.0 -0.9 2.2 -0.4 0.6 2.7 -7.0 12.5 -1.9 -0.6 -0.5
Service production index
y-o-y change (%)
97.5 105.3 113.9 105.7 101.8 100.9 97.5 99.9 101.1 101.3 105.3 108.4 109.1 107.6 113.9 105.5 106.3 105.7 104.2 104.4 101.8 104.0 102.8 100.9 100.7 101.1 97.5 100.6 100.3 99.9 101.8 104.8 101.1 104.0 104.3 101.3 104.8 105.2 105.3 107.8 107.9 108.4 109.5 108.7 109.1 110.8 111.1 107.6 110.3 113.5 113.9 115.1
-2.2 8.0 8.2 9.0 1.4 -0.9 -2.2 -5.5 -0.7 0.4 8.0 8.5 7.9 6.2 8.2 9.2 9.4 9.0 5.7 5.7 1.4 0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.8 -0.4 -2.2 -4.6 -5.6 -5.5 -2.3 0.4 -0.7 0.0 1.5 0.4 4.1 4.1 8.0 7.2 7.6 8.5 7.6 3.7 7.9 6.5 6.5 6.2 5.2 7.9 8.2 6.8
y-o-y change (%)
102.6 104.5 106.7 98.7 102.8 102.4 106.6 100.9 104.6 105.1 107.4 103.4 106.9 105.9 110.4 97.4 95.3 103.4 101.4 102.7 104.4 102.1 102.4 102.6 103.5 103.3 112.9 99.5 97.5 105.6 103.1 104.6 106.0 103.6 104.0 107.7 102.2 106.2 113.8 103.0 99.6 107.7 105.9 106.9 108.0 106.3 105.6 105.8 108.1 107.5 115.5 105.1
2.6 1.9 2.1 2.4 3.3 3.0 1.8 2.2 1.8 2.6 0.8 2.5 2.2 0.8 2.8 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.1 3.3 4.5 2.8 3.9 2.3 1.5 2.3 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 5.0 -1.3 2.8 0.8 3.5 2.2 2.0 2.7 2.2 1.9 2.6 1.5 -1.8 5.8 1.2 1.5 2.0
* Including mining, manufacturing, electricity & gas and water industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
March 2019
55
Statistical Appendices
3 Production capacity and operation ratio (constant prices, 2015=100)
Production capacity index* (2010=100) Period 2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 p 2019 1p
Operation ratio index* (2010=100)
y-o-y change (%)
102.1 103.3 103.1 100.9 101.4 102.5 103.5 102.5 102.9 103.6 104.3 102.3 102.5 103.4 104.0 101.0 100.6 101.1 101.1 101.4 101.7 102.2 102.5 102.9 103.3 103.5 103.6 102.6 102.3 102.6 102.7 103.0 103.0 103.2 103.5 104.1 104.2 104.4 104.2 102.5 102.4 102.1 102.3 102.3 102.9 103.3 103.3 103.7 103.9 104.1 104.1 103.1
2.1 1.2 -0.2 1.7 1.7 2.4 2.5 1.6 1.5 1.1 0.8 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 1.9 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.4 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.6
y-o-y change (%)
98.9 98.1 98.4 95.8 101.2 96.1 102.5 96.8 99.4 98.9 97.1 94.6 100.6 97.0 101.3 95.7 88.3 103.5 98.5 101.9 103.3 100.1 93.7 94.5 99.9 103.9 103.6 93.6 92.4 104.4 98.5 99.5 100.2 99.0 95.0 102.8 93.0 101.6 96.8 97.0 85.8 100.9 99.6 101.5 100.8 100.0 97.2 93.8 104.3 101.3 98.2 96.7
-1.1 -0.8 0.3 -1.1 -0.1 -2.4 -0.8 1.0 -1.8 2.9 -5.3 -2.3 1.2 -1.9 4.3 -3.5 -0.2 0.4 -3.7 3.6 0.2 -1.1 -0.7 -5.5 -4.9 1.9 0.8 -2.2 4.6 0.9 0.0 -2.4 -3.0 -1.1 1.4 8.8 -6.9 -2.2 -6.6 3.6 -7.1 -3.4 1.1 2.0 0.6 1.0 2.3 -8.8 12.2 -0.3 1.4 -0.3
Capacity utilization rate* (%) 73.4 73.3 73.5 73.6 73.9 73.1 73.1 74.5 72.5 73.3 72.8 72.8 73.9 74.2 73.1 72.8 74.3 73.7 72.4 74.9 74.3 73.9 72.4 73.0 71.0 74.6 73.8 76.2 72.8 74.4 72.5 72.9 72.0 73.1 73.4 73.5 73.9 73.0 71.5 72.8 73.5 72.1 73.5 74.4 73.8 73.9 75.1 73.7 74.4 72.7 72.2 73.1
* Manufacturing industry p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
56
Economic Bulletin
4 Consumer goods sales index (constant prices, 2015=100)
2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12p 2019 1p
Consumer goods sales index Durable goods Semi-durable goods
Total
Period
y-o-y change (%)
103.9 105.9 110.4 99.9 104.3 101.7 109.6 101.3 105.2 105.2 112.0 106.7 110.5 109.2 115.3 99.6 95.6 104.5 102.1 107.3 103.4 102.1 100.8 102.2 108.4 109.1 111.2 103.3 95.2 105.4 103.9 107.6 104.2 104.9 101.3 109.5 108.0 115.0 112.9 105.3 101.7 113.2 109.9 112.8 108.7 110.8 107.0 109.9 113.5 116.2 116.3 109.5
3.9 1.9 4.2 4.7 5.6 3.1 2.2 1.4 0.9 3.4 2.2 5.3 5.0 3.8 2.9 5.7 2.9 5.3 3.4 4.6 8.8 4.3 5.4 0.0 2.0 2.6 2.0 3.7 -0.4 0.9 1.8 0.3 0.8 2.7 0.5 7.1 -0.4 5.4 1.5 1.9 6.8 7.4 5.8 4.8 4.3 5.6 5.6 0.4 5.1 1.0 3.0 4.0
y-o-y change (%)
104.6 110.1 116.3 99.4 108.8 99.2 111.2 102.8 112.8 111.1 113.9 112.5 119.8 113.7 119.3 92.9 92.8 112.5 103.3 108.4 114.7 103.5 100.9 93.2 107.3 110.6 115.6 94.6 100.0 113.8 108.5 114.1 115.7 114.9 107.1 111.4 104.0 122.8 114.8 110.7 101.9 124.9 120.1 121.0 118.2 122.2 117.8 101.1 116.3 122.8 118.8 107.3
4.6 5.3 5.6 6.7 11.5 0.8 0.3 3.4 3.7 12.0 2.4 9.4 6.2 2.3 4.7 -1.4 7.7 13.3 8.2 12.3 13.9 0.2 5.5 -3.1 0.7 1.6 -1.3 1.8 7.8 1.2 5.0 5.3 0.9 11.0 6.1 19.5 -3.1 11.0 -0.7 17.0 1.9 9.8 10.7 6.0 2.2 6.4 10.0 -9.2 11.8 0.0 3.5 -3.1
Nondurable goods
y-o-y change (%)
102.3 101.2 107.2 96.4 103.4 91.5 117.7 94.7 101.0 90.8 118.4 99.1 106.8 98.2 124.6 97.3 89.3 102.6 104.9 110.5 94.8 94.1 85.1 95.4 118.2 119.9 115.0 96.3 88.4 99.3 105.5 104.9 92.7 91.6 83.4 97.5 113.7 124.6 117.0 94.3 91.6 111.3 107.7 111.9 100.9 98.6 88.8 107.1 123.6 126.4 123.8 100.3
2.3 -1.1 5.9 2.0 4.2 3.3 0.1 -1.8 -2.3 -0.8 0.6 4.6 5.7 8.1 5.2 3.2 0.9 1.8 1.4 0.7 12.2 7.5 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -1.0 -3.2 0.6 -5.1 -2.2 -2.7 -2.0 2.2 -3.8 3.9 1.7 -2.1 3.6 12.1 2.1 6.7 8.8 7.6 6.5 9.8 8.7 1.4 5.8 6.4
y-o-y change (%)
104.2 106.1 109.2 101.7 102.5 107.4 105.3 103.6 103.6 108.9 108.2 107.5 107.7 112.1 109.4 103.7 99.7 101.6 100.3 105.4 101.9 105.0 107.7 109.4 104.6 103.7 107.5 110.4 96.1 104.2 101.1 105.8 103.9 106.1 106.5 114.0 107.3 107.2 110.2 107.7 106.0 108.7 106.1 109.5 107.6 110.9 110.0 115.4 107.8 108.6 111.9 114.7
4.2 1.8 2.9 5.0 3.3 4.2 4.4 1.9 1.1 1.4 2.8 3.8 4.0 2.9 1.1 10.2 1.7 3.1 2.2 2.9 5.1 5.0 7.1 0.7 3.5 4.5 5.0 6.5 -3.6 2.6 0.8 0.4 2.0 1.0 -1.1 4.2 2.6 3.4 2.5 -2.4 10.3 4.3 4.9 3.5 3.6 4.5 3.3 1.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 6.5
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
March 2019
57
Statistical Appendices
5 Machinery orders received and facility investment index
Period
Domestic machinery orders received excluding ship (billion won, constant value) Total Public Private Facility investment index y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y y-o-y (2010=100) change (%)
2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12p 2019 1p
26,643 31,897 32,470 6,398 6,942 5,765 7,538 7,812 8,590 7,613 7,882 8,407 8,672 7,538 7,854 1,662 2,282 2,454 2,006 2,210 2,727 2,030 1,672 2,063 1,825 2,339 3,374 2,149 2,462 3,202 2,777 2,585 3,228 2,820 2,353 2,440 2,352 2,930 2,600 2,748 2,337 3,322 3,006 2,787 2,879 2,662 2,470 2,406 2,545 2,365 2,944 2,493
4.7 19.7 1.8 -0.9 -1.3 4.8 16.7 22.1 23.7 32.0 4.6 7.6 1.0 -1.0 -0.3 -28.8 22.9 8.2 -27.6 5.2 26.3 1.0 2.5 11.0 -8.7 18.8 35.4 29.3 7.9 30.5 38.5 17.0 18.4 38.9 40.7 18.2 28.9 25.2 -22.9 27.9 -5.1 3.7 8.2 7.8 -10.8 -5.6 5.0 -1.4 8.2 -19.3 13.3 -9.3
change (%)
2,862 2,266 2,465 637 575 465 1,184 691 543 462 570 603 645 495 721 71 255 312 188 175 213 47 84 334 63 154 967 122 227 342 241 117 184 296 82 84 187 139 244 270 141 193 302 121 222 113 274 108 232 64 426 104
49.0 -20.8 8.8 57.4 16.8 16.6 89.9 8.5 -5.7 -0.8 -51.8 -12.7 18.8 7.3 26.5 -39.0 80.7 110.8 48.7 -11.3 25.6 -64.6 -47.3 214.8 -35.2 -32.6 224.7 72.7 -11.0 9.9 28.2 -32.8 -13.4 526.5 -3.1 -74.8 193.9 -9.2 -74.7 120.8 -38.0 -43.7 25.2 3.1 20.6 -61.9 236.3 28.3 24.3 -54.2 74.3 -61.6
change (%)
23,781 29,631 30,005 5,761 6,367 5,300 6,353 7,121 8,048 7,151 7,311 7,803 8,027 7,042 7,133 1,591 2,027 2,142 1,817 2,035 2,514 1,983 1,588 1,729 1,761 2,186 2,406 2,026 2,235 2,860 2,536 2,468 3,044 2,524 2,271 2,356 2,166 2,790 2,355 2,478 2,197 3,129 2,704 2,666 2,657 2,549 2,196 2,297 2,313 2,301 2,519 2,390
1.1 24.6 1.3 -4.8 -2.6 3.9 8.8 23.6 26.4 34.9 15.1 9.6 -0.3 -1.5 -2.4 -28.3 18.1 1.0 -31.3 6.9 26.3 5.7 7.9 -1.4 -7.4 25.5 9.6 27.4 10.2 33.5 39.5 21.3 21.1 27.3 43.0 36.2 22.9 27.7 -2.1 22.3 -1.7 9.4 6.6 8.0 -12.7 1.0 -3.3 -2.5 6.8 -17.5 6.9 -3.6
change (%)
110.7 126.3 121.6 100.1 114.2 106.3 122.0 118.3 134.5 128.2 124.4 130.4 128.0 110.9 117.0 97.0 90.7 112.7 111.0 110.6 121.1 105.0 109.8 104.0 109.3 118.8 138.0 107.0 108.5 139.3 127.0 132.8 143.7 131.1 123.5 130.0 105.0 126.8 141.4 130.8 120.0 140.3 130.9 129.0 124.0 118.2 109.7 104.9 115.7 114.9 120.3 109.1
-1.3 14.1 -3.7 -7.6 0.6 -4.7 5.9 18.2 17.8 20.6 2.0 10.2 -4.8 -13.5 -5.9 -6.6 -8.4 -7.7 -2.5 2.5 2.1 -12.6 3.3 -4.0 -3.3 10.2 10.5 10.3 19.6 23.6 14.4 20.1 18.7 24.9 12.5 25.0 -3.9 6.7 2.5 22.2 10.6 0.7 3.1 -2.9 -13.7 -9.8 -11.2 -19.3 10.2 -9.4 -14.9 -16.6
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
58
Economic Bulletin
6 Value of construction completed and domestic construction orders received
Period 2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳp 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12p 2019 1p
Total
Value of construction Public
y-o-y change (%)
119,971 139,039 136,998 24,533 29,977 29,573 35,889 30,697 35,692 34,902 37,748 32,158 35,882 32,902 36,056 7,509 7,424 9,600 9,027 9,347 11,603 9,545 9,832 10,195 10,473 11,458 13,959 8,996 9,602 12,099 11,222 11,341 13,128 11,215 11,114 12,574 10,900 12,153 14,696 10,669 9,718 11,771 11,569 11,453 12,860 11,025 10,958 10,918 10,995 11,286 13,775 9,682
16.9 15.9 -1.5 11.9 16.5 16.3 21.5 25.1 19.1 18.0 5.2 4.8 0.5 -5.7 -4.5 6.4 8.1 20.0 14.0 16.9 18.1 17.8 21.0 10.9 20.2 28.9 17.0 19.8 29.4 26.0 24.3 21.3 13.1 17.5 13.0 23.3 4.1 6.1 5.3 18.6 1.2 -2.7 3.1 1.0 -2.0 -1.7 -1.4 -13.2 0.9 -7.1 -6.3 -9.3
Private
y-o-y change (%)
30,916 30,314 28,363 6,710 8,099 7,061 9,046 6,931 8,167 6,862 8,354 6,492 7,629 6,356 7,885 2,045 1,976 2,689 2,317 2,326 3,456 2,256 2,344 2,460 2,347 2,779 3,920 1,971 2,130 2,831 2,295 2,510 3,362 2,225 2,070 2,568 2,172 2,460 3,722 1,930 1,906 2,656 2,258 2,346 3,026 2,137 1,954 2,265 2,046 2,238 3,601 1,712
-0.4 -1.9 -6.4 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 2.6 3.3 0.8 -2.8 -7.7 -6.3 -6.6 -7.4 -5.6 -1.1 -6.8 7.8 -7.1 -1.4 0.6 -2.4 5.4 -9.2 2.4 12.7 -3.5 -3.6 7.8 5.3 -0.9 7.9 -2.7 -1.4 -11.7 4.4 -7.5 -11.5 -5.0 -2.1 -10.5 -6.2 -1.6 -6.5 -10.0 -4.0 -5.6 -11.8 -5.8 -9.0 -3.2 -11.3
(current value, billion)
Total
y-o-y change (%)
83,680 105,033 105,252 16,512 20,494 21,226 25,448 22,722 26,606 27,173 28,532 24,845 27,487 25,647 27,273 5,144 5,086 6,282 6,299 6,611 7,585 6,914 7,109 7,203 7,692 8,224 9,532 6,691 7,195 8,836 8,640 8,550 9,417 8,718 8,796 9,659 8,483 9,405 10,643 8,493 7,611 8,741 9,075 8,867 9,545 8,531 8,706 8,410 8,644 8,779 9,850 7,719
24.2 25.5 0.2 14.0 24.6 23.7 32.2 37.6 29.8 28.0 12.1 9.3 3.3 -5.6 -4.4 7.9 12.3 21.1 23.2 24.3 26.0 25.2 27.0 19.2 27.3 36.5 32.7 30.1 41.5 40.7 37.2 29.3 24.2 26.1 23.7 34.1 10.3 14.4 11.7 26.9 5.8 -1.1 5.0 3.7 1.4 -2.1 -1.0 -12.9 1.9 -6.7 -7.5 -9.1
Domestic construction orders Public Private
y-o-y change (%)
145,386 142,966 138,720 28,922 32,790 36,709 46,966 28,605 38,778 33,685 41,898 32,721 33,951 30,330 41,718 7,335 9,994 11,593 10,848 9,658 12,284 12,006 13,329 11,374 14,793 12,624 19,548 8,189 12,329 8,087 14,685 11,462 12,631 8,616 12,857 12,213 9,748 11,511 20,638 12,154 9,122 11,444 9,144 13,701 11,107 10,573 9,208 10,549 10,039 11,443 20,236 7,140
8.1 -1.7 -3.0 13.6 -7.3 0.6 26.4 -1.1 18.3 -8.2 -10.8 14.4 -12.4 -10.0 -0.4 -2.5 84.0 -7.4 19.2 -23.6 -9.9 38.3 52.0 -40.3 42.4 -4.7 44.6 11.7 23.4 -30.2 35.4 18.7 2.8 -28.2 -3.5 7.4 -34.1 -8.8 5.6 48.4 -26.0 41.5 -37.7 19.5 -12.1 22.7 -28.4 -13.6 3.0 -0.6 -2.0 -41.3
y-o-y change (%)
33,832 33,446 29,507 7,753 5,565 7,914 12,600 7,269 7,516 6,954 11,708 4,656 6,241 6,174 12,436 2,687 2,354 2,712 1,185 2,127 2,254 2,626 3,362 1,925 3,209 2,792 6,600 2,250 3,084 1,934 2,119 1,469 3,927 1,794 3,007 2,153 897 2,301 8,510 1,329 2,106 1,222 1,444 2,782 2,015 1,620 2,182 2,372 2,138 2,839 7,458 1,829
18.5 -1.1 -11.8 68.6 -37.9 61.5 24.9 -6.2 35.0 -12.1 -7.1 -35.9 -17.0 -11.2 6.2 102.9 106.4 27.1 -53.9 -10.2 -44.0 46.6 75.1 62.2 78.0 -14.5 31.5 -16.3 31.0 -28.7 78.9 -30.9 74.3 -31.7 -10.6 11.8 -72.1 -17.6 28.9 -40.9 -31.7 -36.8 -31.9 89.3 -48.7 -9.7 -27.4 10.2 138.5 23.4 -12.4 37.6
y-o-y change (%)
107,748 104,431 102,103 20,458 26,702 26,985 33,603 17,267 30,481 26,586 30,097 23,548 26,930 22,802 28,823 4,371 7,559 8,528 9,295 7,412 9,995 8,513 9,464 9,008 11,509 9,729 12,365 5,935 5,899 5,433 11,956 9,934 8,590 6,797 9,837 9,951 8,828 9,192 12,078 6,484 6,941 10,123 7,428 10,760 8,742 8,885 5,864 8,052 7,825 8,479 12,519 4,760
4.4 -3.1 -2.2 -0.6 3.1 -12.6 30.1 -15.6 14.2 -1.5 -10.4 36.4 -11.7 -14.2 -4.2 -28.1 79.5 -17.2 43.6 -27.1 8.0 25.0 44.7 -48.6 34.1 3.3 58.0 35.8 -22.0 -36.3 28.6 34.0 -14.1 -20.2 3.9 10.5 -23.3 -5.5 -2.3 9.3 17.7 86.3 -37.9 8.3 1.8 30.7 -40.4 -19.1 -11.4 -7.8 3.7 -26.6
p: Preliminary Source: Statistics Korea
March 2019
59
Statistical Appendices
7 Composite indexes of business cycle indicators, CSI and BSI Period 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 p 12p 2019 1p 2 3
Leading index (2015=100)
Cyclical indicator of leading index (2015=100)
Coincident index (2015=100)
Cyclical indicator of coincident index (2015=100)
CSI1
97.8 98.2 98.6 99.0 99.6 99.9 100.1 100.5 101.1 101.5 101.9 102.0 102.0 102.0 102.2 102.6 103.0 103.3 103.8 104.3 104.9 105.4 105.8 106.4 106.8 107.3 107.6 108.1 108.7 109.4 109.9 110.3 110.5 110.8 111.1 111.4 111.9 112.1 112.4 112.4 112.8 113.0 113.2 113.1 113.2 113.2 113.3 113.4 113.4 -
100.2 100.1 100.2 100.3 100.5 100.4 100.3 100.4 100.5 100.6 100.6 100.4 100.0 99.7 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.6 99.7 99.8 100.0 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.4 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.8 101.1 101.2 101.3 101.1 101.0 101.0 100.9 101.0 100.9 100.8 100.5 100.5 100.4 100.3 99.9 99.6 99.3 99.1 98.9 98.5 -
98.4 98.9 99.1 99.4 99.1 99.3 99.5 100.2 101.0 101.6 101.7 101.9 101.8 101.9 102.0 102.2 102.7 103.2 103.7 104.0 104.2 104.2 104.6 105.1 105.7 105.9 106.4 106.7 107.0 107.1 107.3 107.6 108.0 108.1 108.3 108.1 108.3 108.7 109.1 109.2 109.4 109.5 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.7 109.8 109.8 110.0 -
99.9 100.2 100.1 100.1 99.7 99.5 99.5 99.9 100.4 100.8 100.6 100.5 100.2 100.0 99.9 99.8 100.0 100.2 100.4 100.5 100.4 100.2 100.3 100.5 100.8 100.8 101.0 101.0 101.0 100.9 100.9 100.9 101.0 100.8 100.8 100.3 100.4 100.4 100.6 100.5 100.4 100.3 100.1 99.9 99.7 99.6 99.3 99.2 99.1 -
101.9 102.6 100.8 103.5 104.8 97.7 99.7 101.0 102.2 104.6 105.3 102.0 99.4 97.2 99.4 101.0 98.6 98.1 100.4 101.3 101.2 101.5 95.0 93.2 92.4 93.6 96.0 100.6 107.6 110.8 110.9 109.6 107.3 108.8 112.0 110.6 109.9 108.1 108.0 107 107.9 105.4 100.8 98.9 100.0 99.2 95.7 96.9 97.5 99.5 -
BOK BSI2 Results
Prospects
75 75 75 76 69 66 71 71 69 72 69 68 66 64 66 66 69 71 72 73 71 72 71 73 77 78 78 80 80 78 79 80 82 82 82 81 78 78 73 75 75 79 75 74 73 72 72 73 68 71 -
78 76 78 77 77 73 68 73 72 70 72 71 70 69 64 68 69 71 72 74 75 75 74 73 74 77 79 80 81 81 81 81 81 82 86 84 83 81 79 75 78 77 81 76 76 78 74 73 72 67 74
1. Consumer sentiment index 2. Business survey index (manufacturing, seasonally adjusted) p: Preliminary Sources: Statistics Korea, Bank of Korea
60
Economic Bulletin
8 Prices Period 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1 2
Consumer prices(2015=100) Commodity Services
All Items y-o-y change (%)
100.0 101.0 102.9 104.5 99.8 99.7 99.7 99.8 100.0 100.1 100.2 100.4 100.1 100.1 99.9 100.2 100.4 100.8 100.6 100.8 100.8 100.8 100.6 100.9 101.5 101.6 101.5 101.6 102.6 102.9 102.9 102.7 102.8 102.6 102.8 103.4 103.5 103.4 102.6 103.0 103.4 104.2 104.1 104.3 104.3 104.1 103.9 104.9 105.7 105.5 104.7 104.4 104.2 104.7
0.7 1.0 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.3 0.8 0.5
y-o-y change (%)
100.0 99.4 101.3 102.7 100.6 100.4 100.1 99.8 100.3 100.4 100.0 100.1 99.8 99.6 99.3 99.7 99.2 99.9 99.1 99.3 99.1 99.1 98.2 98.5 100.0 100.3 100.1 100.1 101.4 101.8 101.6 100.9 101.1 100.9 100.6 101.7 102.2 101.7 100.6 101.1 101.5 102.7 102.3 102.4 102.5 102.3 102.4 103.4 105.1 104.6 103.2 102.2 101.6 101.9
-0.7 -0.6 1.9 1.3 0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.9 -1.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -1.4 -0.5 -1.0 -0.5 -1.2 -1.3 -1.8 -1.6 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.4 2.2 2.0 2.5 1.6 2.1 1.8 2.5 3.2 2.2 1.4 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.3 2.6 2.8 2.6 1.1 0.1 -0.7
y-o-y change (%)
100.0 102.3 104.3 105.9 99.1 99.2 99.4 99.7 99.8 99.8 100.4 100.6 100.4 100.6 100.5 100.7 101.3 101.6 101.8 101.9 102.2 102.2 102.6 102.8 102.6 102.7 102.6 102.8 103.6 103.8 103.9 104.2 104.2 104.0 104.6 104.7 104.5 104.7 104.3 104.6 105.0 105.5 105.6 105.8 106.0 105.8 106.0 106.2 106.0 106.1 106.0 106.1 106.4 107.0
1.8 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4
Producer prices(2010=100) All Items Commodity
Core y-o-y change (%)
100.0 101.6 103.1 104.3 99.4 99.5 99.6 99.6 99.9 99.9 100.2 100.3 100.2 100.4 100.4 100.6 101.0 101.2 101.3 101.5 101.7 101.8 101.5 101.6 101.7 102.1 102.0 101.9 102.6 102.8 102.8 102.9 103.1 103.1 103.4 103.4 103.3 103.5 103.1 103.3 103.5 103.9 104.1 104.4 104.5 104.4 104.2 104.3 104.7 104.7 104.6 104.6 104.8 105.2
2.2 1.6 1.5 1.2 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3
y-o-y change (%)
101.0 99.1 102.5 99.0 101.9 101.9 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.8 101.4 100.8 100.3 99.7 99.3 99.0 98.5 98.5 98.4 98.7 98.8 99.0 98.9 99.0 99.2 99.5 100.0 100.9 102.3 102.7 102.7 102.4 102.2 101.8 101.9 102.3 103.0 103.1 103.0 103.1 103.6 104.0 104.0 104.2 104.4 104.5 104.9 105.5 105.8 105.4 104.6 104.0 103.7 103.8
-4.0 -1.8 3.5 2.0 -3.6 -3.6 -3.7 -3.6 -3.5 -3.6 -4.0 -4.5 -4.6 -4.6 -4.7 -4.0 -3.3 -3.4 -3.3 -3.0 -3.0 -2.7 -2.5 -1.8 -1.1 -0.1 0.7 1.8 3.9 4.3 4.3 3.8 3.4 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.6 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.2 1.5 0.9 0.1 -0.2
y-o-y change (%)
98.0 94.6 99.0 101.1 99.7 99.7 99.5 99.3 99.3 99.3 98.6 97.7 97.0 96.0 95.3 95.0 94.0 93.9 93.8 94.1 94.3 94.6 94.4 94.4 94.7 95.0 95.7 97.0 99.0 99.5 99.3 99.0 98.5 97.8 97.9 98.5 99.5 99.6 99.4 99.5 99.9 100.5 100.5 100.6 100.9 101.0 101.6 102.3 102.8 102.2 101.1 100.1 99.5 99.5
-6.4 -3.4 4.6 2.2 -5.8 -5.8 -5.9 -5.8 -5.7 -5.8 -6.4 -7.1 -7.3 -7.4 -7.6 -6.6 -5.7 -5.9 -5.7 -5.2 -5.1 -4.7 -4.3 -3.4 -2.4 -1.0 0.4 2.2 5.3 6.0 5.9 5.1 4.4 3.4 3.7 4.4 5.1 4.8 3.9 2.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.6 2.5 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.3 2.6 1.6 0.8 -0.5 -1.0
Source: Bank of Korea
March 2019
61
Statistical Appendices
9 Employment (I) Period 2016 2017 2018 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1 2
Economically Economically active persons inactive persons y-o-y change (thousands) y-o-y change (thousands) 27,418 27,748 27,895 26,896 27,578 27,702 27,497 27,262 27,993 27,961 27,775 27,464 28,125 28,080 27,912 26,631 26,925 27,133 27,398 27,617 27,720 27,737 27,690 27,679 27,666 27,613 27,211 26,886 27,321 27,579 27,911 27,987 28,081 28,037 27,903 27,943 27,920 27,889 27,516 27,232 27,348 27,811 28,029 28,184 28,161 28,123 28,039 28,079 28,063 28,092 27,582 27,455 27,649
265 329 148 266 197 308 289 366 414 259 278 202 132 120 137 251 254 293 195 164 233 202 396 325 307 315 246 255 396 446 513 370 360 299 214 263 254 276 305 346 27 232 117 198 80 86 136 137 143 203 66 223 300
16,187 16,183 16,287 16,576 15,991 15,950 16,233 16,556 15,906 16,006 16,263 16,624 16,017 16,131 16,375 16,808 16,546 16,373 16,138 15,955 15,880 15,889 15,962 15,998 16,038 16,117 16,544 16,904 16,497 16,267 15,960 15,916 15,844 15,909 16,064 16,044 16,095 16,151 16,543 16,840 16,744 16,289 16,093 15,956 16,000 16,064 16,172 16,158 16,199 16,192 16,733 16,864 16,734
102 -5 104 127 178 48 53 -20 -85 56 30 68 110 126 112 148 136 96 186 213 136 159 -40 25 40 29 91 96 -49 -107 -179 -39 -36 20 102 45 57 34 -1 -64 247 22 134 41 156 155 108 114 105 41 190 23 -11
Labor force partication rate (%) 62.9 63.2 63.1 61.9 63.3 63.5 62.9 62.2 63.8 63.6 63.1 62.3 63.7 63.5 63.0 61.3 61.9 62.4 62.9 63.4 63.6 63.6 63.4 63.4 63.3 63.1 62.2 61.4 62.4 62.9 63.6 63.7 63.9 63.8 63.5 63.5 63.4 63.3 62.5 61.8 62.0 63.1 63.5 63.9 63.8 63.6 63.4 63.5 63.4 63.4 62.2 61.9 62.3
Employment Unemployment rate (%) rate (%) 60.6 60.8 60.7 59.2 60.9 61.2 60.9 59.6 61.3 61.4 61.0 59.6 61.2 61.1 60.9 59.0 58.9 59.7 60.5 61.1 61.3 61.3 61.2 61.1 61.2 61.2 60.2 59.1 59.3 60.3 61.0 61.5 61.5 61.6 61.2 61.4 61.4 61.4 60.4 59.5 59.2 60.2 60.9 61.3 61.4 61.3 60.9 61.2 61.2 61.4 60.1 59.2 59.4
3.7 3.7 3.8 4.3 3.7 3.5 3.2 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.7 4.9 4.2 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.7 4.9 4.1 4.2 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.7 4.6 4.5 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.7 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.4 4.5 4.7
Source: Statistics Korea
62
Economic Bulletin
10 Employment (II) Period
Employed persons (thousands) Manufacturing
All industry y-o-y change
2016 2017 2018 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1 2
26,409 26,725 26,822 25,747 26,552 26,719 26,618 26,100 26,919 26,998 26,883 26,283 27,019 27,015 26,971 25,646 25,615 25,980 26,325 26,613 26,718 26,765 26,696 26,697 26,746 26,762 26,347 25,878 25,979 26,443 26,744 26,992 27,020 27,078 26,904 27,011 27,026 27,019 26,604 26,213 26,083 26,555 26,868 27,064 27,126 27,083 26,907 27,055 27,090 27,184 26,638 26,232 26,346
231 316 97 204 211 255 256 353 367 279 265 183 101 17 88 254 145 214 172 182 278 227 327 209 227 293 249 232 364 463 420 379 302 314 208 314 281 257 257 334 104 112 123 72 106 5 3 45 64 165 34 19 263
SOC & services
y-o-y change
4,584 4,566 4,510 4,650 4,599 4,540 4,545 4,530 4,579 4,570 4,586 4,575 4,487 4,479 4,499 4,673 4,648 4,630 4,601 4,608 4,588 4,564 4,519 4,538 4,547 4,549 4,541 4,503 4,549 4,539 4,542 4,586 4,608 4,611 4,544 4,555 4,560 4,581 4,618 4,609 4,562 4,554 4,473 4,507 4,482 4,484 4,439 4,513 4,515 4,490 4,491 4,439 4,411
-21 -18 -56 113 15 -92 -119 -120 -21 30 41 45 -91 -91 -88 127 99 111 23 28 -6 -85 -97 -94 -125 -112 -120 -170 -99 -91 -60 -22 20 47 25 17 14 32 77 106 14 15 -68 -79 -126 -127 -105 -42 -45 -91 -127 -170 -151
y-o-y change
20,534 20,857 20,953 20,051 20,530 20,763 20,792 20,546 20,913 20,986 20,986 20,630 21,053 21,039 21,090 20,056 19,984 20,113 20,350 20,566 20,674 20,797 20,759 20,733 20,759 20,841 20,775 20,462 20,453 20,721 20,842 20,963 20,933 21,037 20,922 20,999 21,008 21,061 20,888 20,596 20,503 20,792 20,979 21,054 21,127 21,114 20,967 21,036 21,068 21,241 20,962 20,683 20,806
312 323 96 144 283 429 390 494 383 223 194 85 141 53 104 199 104 129 210 255 385 425 493 370 399 377 393 406 469 608 492 396 260 240 162 266 249 220 113 134 49 71 137 92 194 77 45 37 60 179 74 87 304
Source: Statistics Korea
March 2019
63
Statistical Appendices
11 Balance of payments (I) (US $ million)
Period 2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019p 1
Current account
Goods
97,923.7 75,230.9 76,408.5 26,367.7 27,085.0 21,759.4 22,711.6 15,980.6 14,455.0 25,944.5 18,850.8 11,653.2 17,248.1 28,115.5 19,391.7 7,317.4 7,927.5 11,122.8 4,184.3 10,491.0 12,409.7 8,831.8 5,410.1 7,517.5 7,476.8 7,873.3 7,361.5 3,401.7 7,438.6 5,140.3 3,184.0 4,262.1 7,008.9 7,467.4 6,139.4 12,337.7 6,890.0 7,474.3 4,486.5 2,644.6 3,904.7 5,103.9 1,355.7 8,434.5 7,457.9 8,552.3 8,550.2 11,013.0 9,348.8 5,223.6 4,819.3 2,772.3
116,461.7 113,592.9 111,866.6 29,714.6 32,544.1 27,172.4 27,030.6 24,699.4 27,303.8 33,090.7 28,499.0 22,531.9 29,946.9 34,718.1 24,669.7 8,255.0 8,143.3 13,316.3 9,893.3 10,237.7 12,413.1 10,486.8 6,791.0 9,894.6 8,874.9 9,453.1 8,702.6 6,687.5 9,432.3 8,579.6 10,925.8 7,675.6 8,702.4 9,920.7 8,647.3 14,522.7 9,417.9 11,165.6 7,915.5 7,549.7 5,571.0 9,411.2 9,620.4 10,785.4 9,541.1 10,788.5 10,922.3 13,007.3 10,654.5 7,485.8 6,529.4 5,609.5
Services Exports
Imports
511,926.1 580,310.2 625,437.4 119,093.5 127,675.2 128,305.0 136,852.4 139,598.3 142,985.7 149,655.5 148,070.7 150,104.6 157,666.0 158,973.9 158,692.9 37,326.8 36,545.0 45,221.7 40,501.1 42,155.7 45,018.4 42,616.0 41,847.1 43,841.9 43,111.2 46,297.1 47,444.1 44,498.9 44,777.1 50,322.3 48,155.0 46,728.9 48,101.8 47,108.0 47,834.3 54,713.2 46,115.1 51,690.0 50,265.6 52,224.4 44,990.5 52,889.7 51,506.8 53,846.7 52,312.5 54,184.3 53,472.4 51,317.2 57,403.2 51,716.0 49,573.7 49,384.1
395,464.4 466,717.3 513,570.8 89,378.9 95,131.1 101,132.6 109,821.8 114,898.9 115,681.9 116,564.8 119,571.7 127,572.7 127,719.1 124,255.8 134,023.2 29,071.8 28,401.7 31,661.4 30,607.8 31,918.0 32,605.3 32,129.2 35,056.1 33,947.3 34,236.3 36,844.0 38,741.5 37,811.4 35,344.8 41,742.7 37,229.2 39,053.3 39,399.4 37,187.3 39,187.0 40,190.5 36,697.2 40,524.4 42,350.1 44,674.7 39,419.5 43,478.5 41,886.4 43,061.3 42,771.4 43,395.8 42,550.1 38,309.9 46,748.7 44,230.2 43,044.3 43,774.6
-17,338.4 -36,734.1 -29,737.1 -3,711.0 -4,080.2 -5,417.2 -4,130.0 -9,393.4 -8,111.1 -8,616.1 -10,613.5 -9,313.8 -6,485.9 -7,610.5 -6,326.9 -1,808.4 -1,053.1 -874.1 -1,670.3 -1,129.8 -1,280.1 -1,418.0 -1,453.4 -2,545.8 -1,771.7 -1,703.2 -655.1 -4,174.6 -2,198.4 -3,020.4 -2,494.3 -2,807.2 -2,809.6 -3,304.6 -2,309.0 -3,002.5 -3,602.5 -3,303.6 -3,707.4 -4,441.5 -2,612.6 -2,259.7 -1,977.6 -2,085.1 -2,423.2 -3,092.5 -2,043.8 -2,474.2 -2,180.2 -2,198.0 -1,948.7 -3,608.4
Primary income 4,567.1 5,336.9 2,777.7 1,335.3 -166.3 2,399.6 998.5 1,559.5 -3,106.4 3,940.3 2,943.5 1,312.2 -4,221.2 2,825.3 2,861.4 1,328.6 816.7 -810.0 -3,515.9 1,530.0 1,819.6 388.6 1,023.3 987.7 764.8 338.0 -104.3 1,206.7 755.2 -402.4 -4,669.9 36.4 1,527.1 1,534.5 592.1 1,813.7 1,547.2 272.6 1,123.7 1,157.9 1,444.5 -1,290.2 -5,622.8 478.7 922.9 1,535.4 318.5 971.4 1,327.6 490.7 1,043.1 1,402.1
Secondary income -5,766.7 -6,964.8 -8,498.7 -971.2 -1,212.6 -2,395.4 -1,187.5 -884.9 -1,631.3 -2,470.4 -1,978.2 -2,877.1 -1,991.7 -1,817.4 -1,812.5 -457.8 20.6 -534.0 -522.8 -146.9 -542.9 -625.6 -950.8 -819.0 -391.2 -214.6 -581.7 -317.9 -550.5 -16.5 -577.6 -642.7 -411.0 -683.2 -791.0 -996.2 -472.6 -660.3 -845.3 -1,621.5 -498.2 -757.4 -664.3 -744.5 -582.9 -679.1 -646.8 -491.5 -453.1 -554.9 -804.5 -630.9
p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
64
Economic Bulletin
12 Balance of payments (II) (US $ million)
Period
Financial account*
2016 2017 2018p 2016 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2017 Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2018p Ⅰ Ⅱ Ⅲ Ⅳ 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018p 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019p 1
99,811.3 84,425.3 70,489.3 28,236.5 22,642.8 24,612.6 24,319.4 19,114.9 12,386.9 29,836.8 23,086.7 12,384.7 11,706.6 26,806.9 19,591.1 6,747.0 9,439.7 12,049.8 1,596.3 10,132.2 10,914.3 9,202.8 6,855.4 8,554.4 8,419.5 8,505.1 7,394.8 4,325.0 9,012.8 5,777.1 1,863.3 2,118.2 8,405.4 8,911.6 9,399.0 11,526.2 7,192.7 9,369.1 6,524.9 3,560.9 4,418.6 4,405.2 5.7 6,905.9 4,795.0 9,998.2 7,030.0 9,778.7 10,280.7 3,871.3 5,439.1 3,003.2
Direct investment
Portfolio investment
17,785.2 16,156.5 24,437.9 5,691.9 4,489.3 1,828.4 5,775.6 7,140.3 4,050.0 4,851.8 114.4 2,244.4 8,283.1 8,890.6 5,019.8 206.1 2,181.3 3,304.5 808.9 1,442.8 2,237.6 710.9 -295.5 1,413.0 1,141.2 56.4 4,578.0 3,301.6 4,333.5 -494.8 1,773.0 872.7 1,404.3 637.2 1,953.7 2,260.9 198.6 -1.4 -82.8 240.3 419.8 1,584.3 1,951.5 6,079.9 251.7 2,268.1 4,372.2 2,250.3 3,414.6 200.9 1,404.3 1,669.9
66,970.2 57,853.0 43,884.0 16,794.1 13,981.8 15,865.5 20,328.8 8,131.0 11,965.1 23,755.5 14,001.4 12,833.6 4,505.1 7,784.3 18,761.0 5,412.9 5,749.6 5,631.6 3,277.6 4,546.1 6,158.1 145.0 7,111.8 8,608.7 9,921.6 7,011.4 3,395.8 4,794.5 1,003.6 2,332.9 3,460.2 5,511.1 2,993.8 2,727.2 11,338.8 9,689.5 313.3 1,616.1 12,072.0 3,337.9 9,391.1 104.6 4,061.5 533.0 -89.4 -3,427.9 1,692.4 9,519.8 6,626.2 5,023.5 7,111.3 4,816.1
Financial derivatives
Other investment
Reserve assets
10,880.8 14,312.0 -14,013.4 4,360.2 4,437.6 3,759.0 -1,676.0 6,061.1 -1,775.6 1,731.7 8,294.8 -1,776.7 -9,837.0 5,765.6 -8,165.3 -460.0 2,343.2 2,477.0 -2,763.3 4,205.3 2,995.6 6,852.0 -1,757.5 -1,335.5 -2,124.1 1,871.4 -1,423.3 -3,879.7 5,420.5 4,520.3 -2,286.6 -3,930.8 4,441.8 5,497.6 -4,079.2 313.3 5,809.4 7,262.0 -4,776.6 -145.9 -4,656.2 3,025.4 -8,375.7 -3,034.6 1,573.3 8,581.5 1,439.1 -4,255.0 -2,684.9 -1,619.6 -3,860.8 -3,487.8
7,615.2 4,357.1 17,491.9 -1,333.7 919.4 6,959.2 1,070.3 733.5 214.2 -151.3 3,560.7 2,787.8 9,802.5 2,146.3 2,755.3 360.2 -1,591.0 -102.9 1,316.6 401.7 -798.9 1,966.8 3,089.0 1,903.4 220.3 -517.1 1,367.1 255.5 -151.6 629.6 -170.9 78.5 306.6 128.8 347.0 -627.1 1,427.0 1,369.5 764.2 1,440.3 159.7 1,187.8 3,119.0 3,707.9 2,975.6 1,485.1 -1,235.6 1,896.8 2,157.6 -42.0 639.7 164.7
-3,440.1 -8,253.3 -1,311.1 2,724.0 -1,185.3 -3,799.5 -1,179.3 -2,951.0 -2,066.8 -350.9 -2,884.6 -3,704.4 -1,047.1 2,220.1 1,220.3 1,227.8 756.6 739.6 -1,043.5 -463.7 321.9 -471.9 -1,292.4 -2,035.2 -739.5 83.0 -522.8 -146.9 -1,593.2 -1,210.9 -912.4 -413.3 -741.1 -79.2 -161.3 -110.4 -555.6 -877.1 -1,451.9 -1,311.7 -895.8 -1,496.9 -750.6 -380.3 83.8 1,091.4 761.9 366.8 767.2 308.5 144.6 -159.7
Capital account -46.2 -26.8 188.9 -8.1 -7.0 13.9 -45.0 39.2 -60.4 -5.9 0.3 -21.3 -70.7 61.5 219.4 -2.6 -2.3 -3.2 -5.0 1.0 -3.0 5.8 17.2 -9.1 -6.3 -35.0 -3.7 42.9 -2.0 -1.7 -26.4 -1.9 -32.1 17.1 -21.8 -1.2 -7.4 38.8 -31.1 -6.5 -13.4 -1.4 -64.9 2.6 -8.4 -6.7 -5.1 73.3 82.8 -9.5 146.1 -29.4
* Positive figures represent net outflows, and negative figures represent net inflows. p: Preliminary Source: Bank of Korea
March 2019
65
Statistical Appendices
13 Financial indicators (period average)
Stock
Yields (%) Period Call rate (1 day)
CD (91 days)
Treasury bonds (3 years)
Treasury bonds (5 years)
Corporate bonds (3 years, AA-)
1.99 1.99 1.82 1.73 1.74 1.57 1.48 1.49 1.48 1.48 1.49 1.48 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.28 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.24 1.24 1.23 1.25 1.24 1.26 1.51 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.47 1.50 1.49 1.49 1.50 1.54 1.52 1.51 1.77 1.75 1.76
2.26 2.24 2.00 1.88 1.87 1.73 1.70 1.70 1.69 1.70 1.74 1.90 1.83 1.76 1.71 1.70 1.68 1.56 1.52 1.51 1.50 1.50 1.53 1.65 1.67 1.64 1.64 1.63 1.62 1.60 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.59 1.70 1.80 1.80 1.80 1.81 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.81 1.81 1.82 1.85 1.91 1.87 1.87
2.04 2.02 1.87 1.74 1.88 1.77 1.78 1.74 1.65 1.63 1.75 1.72 1.63 1.47 1.50 1.47 1.46 1.33 1.22 1.24 1.31 1.36 1.61 1.69 1.64 1.67 1.71 1.68 1.69 1.67 1.74 1.78 1.79 2.03 2.15 2.10 2.19 2.28 2.27 2.19 2.25 2.18 2.10 2.02 1.95 2.01 1.94 1.83 1.81 1.80
2.16 2.12 1.97 1.86 2.11 2.04 2.05 1.95 1.85 1.78 1.95 1.90 1.77 1.59 1.61 1.57 1.55 1.41 1.25 1.26 1.35 1.41 1.74 1.87 1.82 1.86 1.91 1.86 1.91 1.86 1.94 1.99 1.99 2.25 2.36 2.30 2.44 2.54 2.50 2.44 2.53 2.44 2.34 2.24 2.13 2.16 2.05 1.89 1.88 1.87
2.36 2.30 2.13 1.99 2.12 2.01 2.00 1.98 1.95 1.96 2.12 2.14 2.09 1.95 1.98 1.94 1.91 1.79 1.65 1.65 1.70 1.78 2.02 2.16 2.10 2.13 2.21 2.20 2.22 2.21 2.28 2.32 2.33 2.57 2.71 2.65 2.72 2.82 2.83 2.79 2.86 2.81 2.75 2.66 2.40 2.45 2.40 2.30 2.26 2.25
2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1 2
KOSPI (end-period)
1,949 1,986 2,041 2,127 2,115 2,074 2,030 1,941 1,963 2,029 1,992 1,961 1,912 1,917 1,996 1,994 1,983 1,970 2,016 2,035 2,044 2,008 1,983 2,026 2,068 2,092 2,160 2,205 2,347 2,392 2,403 2,363 2,394 2,523 2,476 2,467 2,566 2,427 2,446 2,515 2,423 2,326 2,295 2,323 2,343 2,030 2,097 2,041 2,205 2,195
Source: Bank of Korea
66
Economic Bulletin
14 Monetary indicators (period average, billion won)
Reserves Period 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1p
M1
y-o-y change (%)
120,691.4 137,441.5 151,858.1 164,963.2 113,304.2 116,502.4 115,974.9 115,132.7 117,726.3 118,688.2 122,041.0 121,854.4 126,572.2 125,616.2 126,767.1 128,117.5 131,279.3 134,913.0 132,957.9 135,038.9 135,971.3 135,758.4 135,906.7 139,073.9 142,079.6 141,103.5 141,757.2 143,458.7 147,380.8 150,092.9 145,049.0 149,630.1 149,446.2 150,519.7 149,955.1 152,170.5 154,578.6 159,248.2 155,623.3 158,603.1 157,220.1 163,852.7 160,760.7 161,527.1 160,475.5 164,397.3 163,223.4 165,629.2 170,529.6 170,478.9 168,326.2 173,137.8 170,871.6
16.8 13.9 10.5 8.6 15.0 15.9 15.3 16.4 15.7 17.0 20.6 13.2 20.1 17.3 18.8 16.3 15.9 15.8 14.6 17.3 15.5 14.4 11.4 14.1 12.3 12.3 11.8 12.0 12.3 11.3 9.1 10.8 9.9 10.9 10.3 9.4 8.8 12.9 9.8 10.6 6.7 9.2 10.8 8.0 7.4 9.2 8.8 8.8 10.3 7.1 8.2 9.2 8.7
M2
y-o-y change (%)
636,639.0 734,411.8 802,016.5 841,014.4 579,964.2 592,737.4 600,719.9 610,803.3 621,985.5 630,546.3 645,975.4 653,105.9 665,691.1 669,737.7 677,629.2 690,772.4 699,767.3 708,014.0 713,861.2 720,818.5 722,544.4 730,637.8 735,172.2 738,120.9 751,408.5 753,367.3 762,639.7 776,589.6 780,995.5 776,362.5 789,187.8 791,859.3 791,074.8 798,890.2 804,853.4 805,103.3 810,905.0 826,892.1 817,624.5 830,003.7 830,732.8 839,555.2 840,991.0 841,002.2 839,880.5 846,240.2 843,752.8 837,607.5 845,523.7 840,678.4 840,084.9 846,123.7 847,765.3
18.6 15.4 9.2 4.9 12.5 14.3 15.5 17.7 18.9 18.5 21.0 21.3 21.4 21.5 20.6 19.6 20.7 19.4 18.8 18.0 16.2 15.9 13.8 13.0 12.9 12.5 12.5 12.4 11.6 9.7 10.6 9.9 9.5 9.3 9.5 9.1 7.9 9.8 7.2 6.9 6.3 8.1 6.6 6.2 6.2 5.9 4.8 4.0 4.3 1.7 2.7 1.9 2.1
Lf
y-o-y change (%)
2,182,911.9 2,342,621.3 2,471,225.6 2,626,902.0 2,092,223.5 2,109,892.3 2,127,887.8 2,148,114.7 2,166,741.1 2,179,561.1 2,200,510.9 2,218,660.3 2,230,000.7 2,232,432.0 2,242,848.2 2,246,070.1 2,261,356.4 2,285,313.5 2,294,544.7 2,299,081.3 2,312,801.2 2,334,256.2 2,352,245.1 2,377,323.1 2,383,040.5 2,391,059.2 2,406,393.5 2,414,040.9 2,417,635.8 2,420,285.6 2,436,994.7 2,450,220.9 2,454,386.7 2,470,861.1 2,472,110.4 2,485,629.9 2,492,388.4 2,504,594.2 2,521,786.3 2,527,641.3 2,551,196.0 2,570,764.6 2,578,361.8 2,590,840.7 2,600,274.3 2,622,268.3 2,637,421.8 2,651,503.4 2,652,829.5 2,674,506.5 2,692,974.8 2,699,882.3 2,716,740.2
8.6 7.3 5.5 6.3 8.0 8.0 8.3 9.0 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.2 9.4 8.8 7.7 7.5 8.1 8.3 7.8 7.0 6.7 7.1 6.9 7.2 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 6.9 5.9 6.2 6.6 6.1 5.9 5.1 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.7 5.5 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.7 6.7 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.5
y-o-y change (%)
2,986,699.4 3,229,857.2 3,445,685.0 3,686,392.2 2,857,610.1 2,876,467.8 2,907,976.4 2,936,746.7 2,960,998.1 2,986,316.5 3,013,503.9 3,028,981.1 3,049,823.2 3,059,051.9 3,076,029.2 3,086,887.8 3,110,535.8 3,133,492.2 3,158,687.8 3,170,277.9 3,189,899.3 3,223,154.5 3,242,338.3 3,270,365.6 3,288,026.0 3,305,950.4 3,328,489.7 3,337,069.4 3,359,110.8 3,365,200.1 3,387,986.2 3,404,957.2 3,416,320.2 3,440,571.4 3,454,563.6 3,472,041.5 3,483,119.8 3,501,084.6 3,521,139.1 3,541,553.2 3,573,130.0 3,596,261.3 3,616,028.6 3,629,830.4 3,643,255.3 3,671,956.8 3,698,202.0 3,718,480.4 3,734,526.2 3,759,646.9 3,786,039.7 3,809,349.2 3,838,653.0
9.7 8.1 6.7 7.0 8.4 8.6 9.3 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.2 9.2 8.9 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.0 7.7 7.9 7.6 8.0 7.8 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.5 6.2 5.9 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.4 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.4
Source: Bank of Korea
March 2019
67
Statistical Appendices
15 Exchange rates (end-period)
US $/\ Period 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2017 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2018 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2019 1 2
Won
1,172.0 1,208.5 1,071.4 1,181.1 1,190.8 1,099.2 1,105.0 1,068.1 1,108.0 1,124.1 1,166.3 1,176.3 1,194.5 1,142.3 1,150.4 1,172.0 1,208.4 1,235.4 1,153.5 1,143.9 1,190.6 1,164.7 1,125.7 1,118.5 1,096.3 1,145.2 1,168.5 1,208.5 1,157.8 1,132.1 1,116.1 1,130.1 1,123.9 1,139.6 1,119.1 1,122.8 1,146.7 1,125.0 1,082.4 1,071.4 1,071.5 1,071.0 1,066.5 1,076.2 1,081.3 1,121.7 1,116.7 1,108.8 1,112.7 1,140.6 1,121.8 1,118.1 1,170.2 1,117.8
Euro/\
100/\ y-o-y change (%)
6.6 3.1 -11.3 4.4 1.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 8.5 10.8 13.9 16.1 13.7 8.4 4.5 6.6 10.8 12.4 4.4 7.1 7.5 3.6 -3.5 -4.9 -8.2 0.3 1.6 3.1 -4.2 -8.4 -3.2 -1.2 -5.6 -2.2 -0.6 0.4 4.6 -1.8 -7.4 -11.3 -7.5 -5.4 -4.4 -4.8 -3.8 -1.6 -0.2 -1.2 -3.0 1.4 3.6 4.4 4.3 4.4
Won
972.0 1,036.8 949.1 1013.2 921.4 920.7 920.3 897.2 894.6 917.2 939.3 970.1 996.8 994.1 936.7 972.0 1,017.1 1,083.8 1,026.0 1,058.2 1,072.8 1,132.2 1,073.7 1,086.3 1,083.7 1,094.4 1,038.8 1,036.8 1,017.9 1,004.0 998.5 1,016.0 1,014.3 1,017.6 1,012.3 1,017.4 1,020.4 994.2 966.5 949.1 985.0 997.3 1,001.5 985.9 994.0 1,014.8 1,006.0 998.7 981.2 1,008.9 989.0 1,013.2 1,024.8 1,007.6
y-o-y change (%)
5.6 6.7 -8.5 6.8 -11.7 -11.9 -11.4 -10.8 -10.9 -8.3 -5.7 -0.8 3.8 -2.1 0.3 5.6 10.4 17.9 11.5 17.9 19.9 23.4 14.3 12.0 8.7 15.9 10.9 6.7 0.1 -7.5 -2.7 -4.0 -5.4 -10.1 -5.7 -6.3 -5.8 -9.2 -7.0 -8.5 -3.2 -0.7 0.3 -3.0 -2.0 -0.3 -0.6 -1.8 -3.8 1.5 2.3 6.8 4.0 1.0
Won
1,280.5 1,267.6 1,279.3 1,279.2 1,235.7 1,230.7 1,196.8 1,187.0 1,215.2 1,260.5 1,275.4 1,317.3 1,343.9 1,254.8 1,218.3 1,280.5 1,322.2 1,348.3 1,307.4 1,298.4 1,326.8 1,295.5 1,246.7 1,246.9 1,230.3 1,257.1 1,244.3 1,267.6 1,239.5 1,198.6 1,192.6 1,228.1 1,255.6 1,304.0 1,315.7 1,335.6 1,350.9 1,310.1 1,282.7 1,279.3 1,329.1 1,310.4 1,312.0 1,304.5 1,261.3 1,297.0 1,307.4 1,293.2 1,294.6 1,294.0 1,277.7 1,279.2 1,283.1 1,271.5
y-o-y change (%)
-4.2 -1.0 0.9 0.0 -16.1 -15.9 -18.6 -16.7 -12.6 -8.9 -7.0 -1.4 0.8 -5.6 -11.2 -4.2 7.0 9.6 9.2 9.4 9.2 2.8 -2.3 -5.3 -8.5 0.2 2.1 -1.0 -6.3 -11.1 -8.8 -5.4 -5.4 0.7 5.5 7.1 9.8 4.2 3.1 0.9 7.2 9.3 10.0 6.2 0.5 -0.5 -0.6 -3.2 -4.2 -1.2 -0.4 0.0 -3.5 -3.0
Source: Bank of Korea
68
Economic Bulletin
Useful websites
Ministry of Economy and Finance http://english.moef.go.kr Korea Development Institute http://www.kdi.re.kr/kdi_eng Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy http://english.motie.go.kr Financial Services Commission http://www.fsc.go.kr/eng Financial Supervisory Service http://english.fss.or.kr Fair Trade Commission http://www.ftc.go.kr/eng Ministry of Employment and Labor http://www.moel.go.kr/english Bank of Korea http://www.bok.or.kr/eng Statistics Korea http://kostat.go.kr/portal/eng
Republic of Korea
Economic Bulletin March 2019
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