Dialogue Winter 2013 by Strand91

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at King’s College London is a unique multi-disciplinary enterprise – it is the only academic department of its kind in the UK. “Teaching and research in the department is informed by an

understanding of the interdependence of economic and political institutions.”

Coined by Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs in 2001, the acronym: 'BRIC' for signifying the emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India and China, has become integral to discussions on world issues of politics and economics. In this issue of Dialogue we contribute to this ongoing international discussion, fundamentally questioning whether they will meet the benchmark of power that the world now expects.

Society President Ramtin Hajimonshi

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Creative Editor

Georgina Singer

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Assistant Editors Angela Buensuceso (Content) Gabriel Coupeau González(Creative) Helene Løken Eiklid (Creative)

As in our previous issue, Dialogue's gaze remains international with this edition covering a wide number of regions and topics including: China's leadership transition (p. 23), Italy's crisis with political elites (p. 11) and the return of President Obama (p. 33) among many others. We welcome you to share your thoughts on the issues discussed in this edition by emailing: kclpoliticsjournal@gmail.com, and

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Dialogue | Winter 2013

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

In a time of global ideological truce it apparently ta-

do not share a common geographical context or con-

kes an American investment bank to conjure up a ri-

stitute a trading block like the EU (European Union),

val bloc of countries that may vie with the West. Ever

ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations)

since Goldman Sachs coined the BRIC acronym more

and MERCOSUR (South Americaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s trade bloc), nor

than a decade ago, Brazil, Russia, India and China

are they united by cultural affinities or historical

have eagerly exploited their allotted brand to form a

bonds like the Arab League and the Commonwealth

non-Western coalition of emerging powers in inter-

countries respectively. While Brazil, India and South

national politics. And with a bit of wit of their own,

Africa pride themselves on being vibrant multi-

the BRICS recently capitalized in full by admitting

cultural democracies, both Russia and China are more

South Africa into their ranks, thereby enlisting anot-

accurately described as autocratic regimes that up-

her continent behind their non-Western cause.

hold a rather particularistic ethno-cultural mindset. Moreover, whereas China and Russia as permanent

On the face of it, the BRICS may be easily dismissed

members of the UN Security Council enjoy the status

as a strategically branded jumble of countries that

and rights of great powers, the other three BRICS are

defy most meaningful common denominators. They

still regarded as developing countries and have for-

Dialogue | Winter 2013

med their own club, IBSA (India-Brazil-South-

or willingly for that matter – erased from the identi-

Africa Dialogue Forum), to strengthen their common

ties of Brazil, India or South Africa. The Chinese

interests internationally.

have certainly not forgotten the “Century of Humiliation” under Western (and Japanese) imperialism,

Indeed, the notion of a BRICS-challenge to the West

which is why Chinese policy-makers react ve-

quickly dissolves when confronted with the fact that

hemently whenever Western countries interfere in

the lofty declarations from their annual summits –

questions concerning China’s sovereignty or territ-

announcing wide-ranging cooperation and an exten-

orial rights. As to Russia, its 20th century ideological

sive bureaucratization of their joint activities – have

rivalry with the Western powers has instilled a simi-

yet to materialize. Even more importantly, the

lar anti-Western consciousness in the Russian popu-

BRICS themselves have been struggling with the

lation. Taken together, this is mirrored in the BRICS’

global financial crisis, which has seriously hampered

staunch commitment to Westphalian principles of

their growth momentum and accordingly under-

sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs.

mined the previous straight line projections of their

Russia and China have especially used their seats in

rise. Finally, although they represent emerging mar-

the United Nations’ Security Council to block the

kets, the BRICS still rank as middle or low income

emerging Western-sponsored norm of humanitarian

countries in terms of GDP per capita (Place: 75, 53,

intervention

129, 92 and 78 respectively in 2011). This is of

‘Responsibility to Protect’ (R2P). The BRICS mem-

course a useful indication of how far the BRICS still

bers’ attitude towards the West was recently exemp-

lag behind the advanced Western economies– thus

lified in the UN deliberations over Syria, where Rus-

reducing the imminence of any direct challenge from

sia and China both vetoed the British-led UN resolut-

the BRICS.

ion to impose harsh economic sanctions in order to

“

through

their

commitment

end the conflict.

… The BRICS embody an antiwestern sentiment that runs deep among the emerging powers...”

The second reason that the BRICS phenomenon is an

Nevertheless, there are at least two reasons why the

sition to a post-western world mentality which feeds

“BRICS-phenomenon” is interesting as an express-

into anxieties of a dramatic Western decline. These

ion of the current mental state of international af-

anxieties are fed by an addictive virtual industry,

fairs. Firstly, the BRICS embody an anti-Western

which constantly speculates over when rising non-

sentiment that runs deep among the emerging powers

Western powers will surpass the West, featuring in

as demonstrated by the sometimes harsh political

particular China’s race against America. The pion-

rhetoric of the BRICS summit statements. The colo-

eers of Goldman Sachs first estimated that the Chi-

nial suppression by Western countries is not easily –

nese economy would surpass the American in 2041,

interesting reflection of international mentality has actually more to do with the West itself. The emergence of the BRICS appears to have triggered a tran-

which was later adjusted to 2027. The Economist

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

Intelligence Unit has projected the transition to

lined in his State of the Union address that

take place in 2021, while the International Mone-

“anyone who tells you that America is in decline

tary Fund (IMF) and Organisation for Economic

or that our influence has waned, doesn't know what

Co-operation and Development (OECD) put their

they’re talking about.” Mitt Romney declared that

bet on 2016. Some even argue that it has already

the 21st century would be American, not Chinese.

occurred in terms of the purchasing power parity

In their third presidential debate Obama argued

measure. Yet, in light of the recent slowdown of

that the United States remains “the one indis-

the BRICS’ economic output and the continued

pensable nation, and the world needs a strong

inferiority of the BRICS-economies compared to

America” while Romney went as far as to charac-

the West, the whole exercise of measuring when

terize the United States as the “hope of the earth”.

the transition nominally will take place seems to

In other words, the rise of the BRICS, notably

foremost reflect a somewhat paranoid fear of

China, raises fundamental questions of America’s

decline.

self-understanding, which could lead the world’s only superpower to accentuate the exceptionalist

Interestingly, the debate about Western decline in

strand of its identity.

general and American decline in particular has a long history reaching all the way back to the Cold

While the idea of a BRICS-challenge to the West

War era. From the fear of being overtaken by the

may seem like a bit of a hype, it would be prema-

Soviet Union in the days of Sputnik through the

ture to predict that the 21st century will be yet anot-

collapse of Bretton Woods, oil crises, the rise of

her Western dominated period. There is no iron

OPEC, Vietnam war and Iranian revolution to the

law that prevents the BRICS from reaching parity

‘Japan threat’ of the 80s, which has now been re-

with the Western great powers but if it does hap-

placed by a ‘China threat’. Hence, the latest round

pen, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa

of the “declinist debate” already has a well-

are much more likely to pose a challenge to the

established lens through which to read the econo-

existing world order individually, rather than as a

mic crisis, unemployment, military sequestration

group. In fact, what is really worrying is that there

and even the last flight of the Discovery space

are exceptionalist identities and a sense of self-

shuttle.

righteousness on all sides – the last thing we would wish for is for the 21st century to become a clash of

On the other hand, when it comes to the United

exceptionalisms.

States the “declinist” mentality is more than offset by an optimistic spirit rooted in a deep-seated belief in the unique potential of the American nation. This `exceptionalist´ mentality, as it is often termed, has been in full display during 2012 as part of the electoral campaigns of both presidential

ANDREAS BØJE FORSBY is a PhD candidate at the Danish Institute for International Studies. PETER MARCUS KRISTENSEN is a PhD Candidate at the University of Copenhagen.

candidates. Barack Obama, for instance, under-

Dialogue | Winter 2013

“Initially, we were very excited when the European

much like national embassies. Today the EEAS opera-

Union embarked on its process towards unifying its

tes 140 delegations all over the world, which is more

Common Foreign and Security Policy, giving us one

than most individual European member states.

actor to talk to in place of 27! Unfortunately, today, not much has changed; instead we have reverted to focusing

To answer the question of the “red telephone” let us

our diplomatic efforts on the ‘Big Three’.” This state-

look at three novelties related to the personnel changes

ment by a researcher in one of China’s government

the EU’s Foreign Service has been introducing. Firstly,

think tanks has been confirmed in most of my en-

the EEAS combines a wide variety of policy areas un-

counters during a seven-month research stay in Beijing.

der its expertise. While national embassies normally

Of course, my counterparts were speaking about the EU

fulfill a variety of administrative roles, its functional

landmark reforms in December 2009; when the ratifi-

positions are mainly filled with political experts. Since

cation of the Lisbon Treaty freed the way to the

the EEAS is combining the former functions of the De-

establishment of a diplomatic corps and a foreign mini-

legations of the European Commission with those of a

stry of the European Union. The frequent requests by

foreign service, counterparts will find experts of the va-

third countries to address a unified union were conside-

rious directorate generals under its roof. This means, for

rable motivations for the novelties in the Lisbon Treaty,

instance, that representatives of trade ministries will be

three years after the signing of the treaty, have the new

able to actually meet with a trade expert rather than a

structures been able to address these issues? Which ba-

diplomat when visiting the EU Representation. If used

ses have been established?

as intentioned the new structure could shorten communication lines and concentrate negotiations by EU mem-

Two of the most important changes of the Lisbon treaty

ber states. What appears to be an advantage for the visi-

are the elevation of the position of the High Representa-

bility of the different Commission portfolios also crea-

tive for Common Foreign and Security Policy, which

tes a very clear challenge of loyalties. The EU delegat-

was represented by Javier Solana from 1999-2009. To-

ions are effectively staffed by member states and the

day Lady Catherine Ashton holds the position of the

European commission, which has conjured clashes of

High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs

working styles, loyalties and budget allocations, especi-

and Security Policy (HR). She also heads the newly

ally in the first two years of operation.

established European External Action Service (EEAS), which started operation in 2010. The European External

One of the most visible (intentionally so) new actors is

Action Service replaces the former Representations of

the new HR, currently Lady Catherine Ashton. The idea

the European Commission and is supposed to work

behind the creation of the position of the HR was to

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

give the Union a face that would be recognized by glo-

in the short run, relates to the internal makeup and po-

bal leaders as a serious counterpart (together with van

litical divisions within the Union. The institutional basis

Rompoy, the President of the European Council, and

for a common foreign and security policy has truly been

Barroso, the President of the European Commission).

laid and a process tracing back to the very beginnings of

Media reports about the first three years of Lady

European integration, when a European Defense Com-

Ashton’s tenure have been underwhelming, to say the

munity was considered for the first time, has reached a

least. Criticized both in her home country and continen-

significant milestone. But the complaints, the divisions

tal Europe comments have run along similar lines: too

and the very essence of national sovereignty are still in

weak, not charismatic enough and not measuring up to

place and are likely to stay in place for many years to

the task designed for her. To be fair, however, one has

come. In practice this means that there are still 27 state-

to look at the job the HR is tasked with, as she combines

ments (and more) being made when the EU’s strategic

a staggering six roles in one person. Ashton’s days are

interests (as laid down in its 2003 security strategy) are

filled with meetings, briefings, visits and simultaneously

threatened by conflicts in its neighbourhood and other

leading the activities of the EEAS. Ashton’s credentials

parts of the world. While it is legitimate for member

were put to a test of fire in the dealing with the Libyan

states to ask for sovereign decisions and would be

conflict. Following her approach of shuttle diplomacy

considered the norm in any other circumstance, the EU

and consultation with EU member states Ashton ended

has created an institutional framework aimed at com-

up being the last to issue EU statements following quick

mon decision-making, representation and the pooling of

communications by, for example French, British and

resources in international crisis situations. However,

German governments. After Gaddafi’s ousting, the new

commentators like José Ignacio Torreblanca from the

opposition government taking office did not even re-

European Council on Foreign Relations predict for a

ceive the European Union’s HR.

divided Europe a fate of international irrelevance, taking last year’s vote over the admission of Palestine to UNE-

But what do these examples tell us about the new visibi-

SCO as an example. Out of 27 countries, eleven voted

lity of the European Union as an international actor?

in favour, five against and eleven abstained. Whether

The answer must be typically European: We are looking

the mindsets, loyalties and political cultures of the Euro-

at a process, which has only begun. The Union’s goal –

pean Union and its member states will change to fit its

assuming it is an actor with its own interest – has not yet

new institutional structure, only the future can tell.

been achieved. There are two sets of reasons for this, one short-term, one long-term. In the short term there is

OLIVIA GIPPNER is a PhD Candidate at Berlin Gradu-

a general confusion by other governments and stakehol-

ate School on Transnational Studies and a researcher

ders on what exact roles and capabilities the EEAS is

with the NFG Research Project ”Asian Perceptions of

meant to fulfill. These questions of definition and per-

the EU”.

sonnel changes, however, might be answered as networks are consolidated and the foreign ministries and governments in Beijing, Washington D.C. and Brasilia get used to working with representatives of EU Delegations. The second reason, which is unlikely to be solved

Dialogue | Winter 2013

Although the sun continues to shine over Greece,

improvement. Nevertheless the crisis has polarized

one feels that it is far from as bright as it used to be.

Greeks on a level not witnessed since the end of the

Walking in the streets of Athens is enough to con-

military junta in 1974 with parties continuing to

vince someone that there has been a different at-

disagree on which is the right way forward. If one

mosphere for the majority of the past two and a half

looks closely enough, it becomes ever clearer that

years. Impressive monuments like the Parthenon

what the country has journeyed through is not just

still remain to remind Greeks of the glory days in

an economic crisis, but more potently a crisis of

ancient Athens, a historic past in which many seek

values.

refuge from the stresses of everyday life in the present.

Understanding Greece from the “inside” requires an illustration of the environment. In 2008 after the

The city centre looks full on a weekend night and

subprime crisis, the availability of credit in the in-

the traditional restaurants – tavernas - still manage

ternational markets became ever scarce. Greece,

to serve some customers. Nevertheless the time of

dependent on foreign lending, teetered on the verge

good wine, expensive clubs in Greek islands and

of collapse which in December 2009 resulted in

“la dolce vita” - or as the locals say “the fat cow

Fitch downgrading the creditworthiness of the

period”- seem like a dream that has long faded.

country for the first time in 10 years, to BBB+. Unable to acquire funds from the markets, Greece

The current state of the economy and political sce-

sought help from the IMF in 2010. In May 2010 the

ne are not only the focus of many discussions made

first bailout package of €110 billion was approved

in forums and conferences, but also in the local ta-

by the Greek parliament despite massive demon-

vernas over a glass of ouzo. Greece’s capitulation

strations outside the building. Since then the IMF’s

to the bailouts of the infamous “troika” (the Euro-

agenda of privatization, liberalization and austerity

pean Central Bank, the European Commission and

has been applied with limited success considering

the International Monetary Fund) have been pain-

that Greece will still require more funds in the next

ful, but after significant loans, a cabinet reshuffling

two years.

last year and two elections over the summer, the country seems to be making small steps towards

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

Nevertheless many reforms have not yet managed

During an opinion poll in October 2012, 81% of

to be implemented due to the inefficiencies of the

the participants expressed their dissatisfaction with

state apparatus and pressures from interest groups.

the state of democracy in Greece. Growing insecu-

The government’s inability to tackle tax evasion

rities from joblessness and future uncertainty is in-

(loses from which were €42 billion in 2011) has

creasingly giving rise to xenophobia; an alien value

shifted the focus on austerity to deal with the defi-

to a country that once prided itself on hospitality.

cit which in a recent report by the Economist, could

Anti-immigration rhetoric is increasingly employed

possibly reach as much as 190% of GDP by the end

by various right-wing parties who use immigrants

of 2014. That is not to mention the increasing costs

as scapegoats for Greece’s woes. Significantly the

from energy, VAT and transportation which have

far-right party “Golden Dawn” managed to enter

left the prices of basic goods increasingly unafford-

parliament gaining almost 7% of the vote in June

able for many. The massive decrease in aggregate

2012, and according to a 2012 report by Human

demand has resulted in high unemployment (25.1%

Rights Watch, Greece’s level of racist violence is

of the population, 55.6% among the youth in July

on the rise. These conditions create a dangerous

2012), and the closing of small and medium enter-

atmosphere, which many compare to the unstable

prises has led to the erosion of consumer and inves-

situation in the Weimar Republic in Germany dur-

tor confidence. It would appear that austerity is giv-

ing the early 1930s.

ing birth to a vicious cycle, sinking the economy deeper into insolvency.

Undoubtedly Greece makes an interesting case study on the tragic impact of tight economic

On the social aspect, the image is even more critical: a 40% increase in suicides in the first half of 2010, and a rise in prescriptions for antidepressants, indicate a society sinking in line with its economic outlook. Criminality has risen, and the 25% increase in homelessness has left the streets of Athens filled with destitution. Cuts in the healthcare budget of 36% are causing a number of problems, including an approximate 33% surge in HIV. Although NGOs are making valiant efforts to

measures on social prosperity. However recently European leaders have adopted a more positive rhetoric regarding Greece’s reforming progress, and “Grexit” appears less in the headlines. Nevertheless Greece’s woes are not yet over, many challenges lie ahead before this Greek tragedy can come to a close.

ERIC KLOPFER is a second year International Politics BA student at King’s College London.

deal with these problems, they aren’t able to cope with the amounts of people in need of help. Values have not escaped impairment either.

Dialogue | Winter 2013

With the wave of austerity measures spreading in southern Europe and the crisis at hand, the strengths of these countries are overshadowed by their flaws, which arise when attempting to analyse the roots of why the European recession has affected this region so harshly. With Greece bordering on financial default and even considering a Euro-exit, and Spain’s unemployment at an unprecedented high, Italy has been portrayed as on an apparent road to recovery since the technocratic government lead by Mario Monti took office in November 2011.

A far cry from the infamously scandalous leadership of Silvio Berlusconi, the Monti administration has been widely praised by international press, accrediting him with having saved the euro through his austerity policies for Italy – Europe’s third largest econo-

my, labelling him “Super Mario” in Germany and gracing the cover of Time Magazine as the man destined to save Europe. However, domestically he has deeply split public opinion, as many condemn him for his harsh austerity measures such as the IMU—a compulsory tax on housing. Italy’s problems are more complex than they may appear: the disillusion toward political elites that appear increasingly out of touch with the people they govern has become a pressing issue over the years, and this is crucial when attempting to decipher the troubles plaguing the Bel Paese.

“

… Monti is 69, Berlusconi was

75 at the time of his resignation, and the likely candidates for the next election are all over 60 years old.”

Italian politics has come under scrutiny over the past two decades at an unprecedented scale, and Berlusconi’s controversial political presence over the past 17 years can largely be held accountable. A media and business tycoon (notably the owner of Mediaset, Italy’s largest television group, as well as the football team AC Milan) and one of Italy’s richest men, Berlusconi was recently sentenced to four years in prison for tax evasion by a Milan court, a decision he will most likely sidestep, as has been the case with the innumerable scandals surrounding him in past few years. Another infamous trial involving him as a protagonist is that surrounding the Rubygate scandal, where Berlusconi has been accused of paying an underage prostitute for sex in October 2010 and then insuring she be freed from an arrest. Finally, the 76

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

year old former prime minister caused innumerable media scandals due to his alleged ‘bunga bunga’ parties, which involved a series of young, female escorts attending lavish parties at his private villas in Rome and Milan. Karima El Mahroug, the woman surrounding the Rubygate scandal was known to be among the numerable girls involved, as was Nicole Minetti. Minetti, a 27 year old dental hygienist, was accused of providing escorts for Berlusconi’s parties and caused quite a stir when she was appointed regional councillor for Lombardy (Italy’s wealthiest region, which includes Milan). In many aspects, the somewhat unprofessional leadership of Silvio Berlusconi, teeming with scandals and cover-ups, lead to a deeply negative perception of what Italian politics had become.

Another factor incrementing the disillusion toward politicians is that many citizens do not feel adequately represented by their leaders whom they see as overpaid and unfit for their position. A recent study placed Italian politicians as the highest paid in the European Union, earning around €20.600 in monthly stipend, compared to €12.860 in Germany and €4.945 in Spain. It is no doubt that as people face tax increases for new austerity measures, such statistics only serve to further amplify scepticism toward politicians. Worth noting is the creation of the populist Movimento 5 Stelle, the Five Star Movement, created by comedian turned politician Beppe Grillo. Refusing to call itself a political “party” per se, what started off as a vociferous and satirical platform to condemn political corruption, the Movement is now even contending for the upcoming Parliamentary elections. What is more notable than Grillo’s political group itself is what it represents: it reflects just how exasperated ordinary Italians have become with their decision makers, whom they consider outdated and plagued with nepotism. Thus many people feel out of touch with the political elites, believing they often make a mockery of the country, and are pushed to further disassociate themselves from the political process.

tional contrast felt socially and reflected politically. Many young people do not feel that their members of parliament adequately represent them, and the grim economic situation means many have second thoughts about their future as professionals in Italy. They believe that only by pursuing a career abroad can they hope to succeed after their studies, and losing its most promising talents will only hinder Italy’s future ability to compete in the global market. Fabio Marzaili, a student at Milan’s renowned Bocconi University in Milan, finds that his future in Italy is “limited”, and while there is ambition and determination among students, what is lacking is a belief in them from above. Their argument that politicians may be outdated and unappealing to the younger generation is not totally unfounded. In fact, Monti is 69, Berlusconi was 75 at the time of his resignation, and the likely candidates for the next election are all over 60 years old. Only 7% of MPs are under 40 in the Chamber of Deputes while women are even more underrepresented, making up a mere 15% of the present cabinet and Italy ranks 67th in the world for number of female parliamentarians. It is clear that Italian politics needs to replenish itself by becoming a system more open to change, listening to the voices of a new – and fed up – generation and it must overcome the inertia of this aged and out of touch system so strongly characterised by corruption and favouritism. CHRISTINA ANAGNOSTOPOULOS is a second year European Studies BA student at King’s College London

What must also be held into account is the now ever more apparent gap between young and old, a generaDialogue | Winter 2013

The year 2012 marks over 20 years since the dissolution

according to the prominent Russian politician Alexander

of the Soviet Union on Boxing Day 1991. 20 years for a

Voloshin, ‘Putin is not against modernization in Rus-

scarred country to change, evolve and survive. Claiming

sia’. However according to Kasyanov the current prime

fame as the largest country in the world, Russia’s turbu-

minister Dmitry Medvedev is not regarded as indepen-

lent history is renowned as her economic power in

dent politician from Putin, meaning that his words and

energy. Nevertheless one can boldly argue that nothing

actions ‘carry no weight’ in the eyes of the public. Ka-

has changed politically in the last 20 years, today the

syanov goes further to state that ‘Medvedev argues for

country faces significant political and economic pro-

modernisation, but he does not believe that political re-

blems which are restraining Russia’s ability to further

form is required in order to achieve it.’ It is this change

develop and fulfill her potential as a BRIC nation, and

through political reform that is particularly needed to

putting the country in the dangerous position of rever-

tackle Russia’s corruption which even Putin has said

ting back to pre-1991 troubles.

‘has reached unparalleled levels’ with formal government bypassed by informal networks, leaving Russians

Many international and widely respected scholars like to

with the uncomfortable reality: – to get something done

blame Russia’s situation on her beloved fourth-time lea-

one simply needs to bribe the right person.

der Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, but blame also comes from within Russia’s own ranks. Mikhail Kasy-

Similarly foreign relations and Russia’s economic situ-

anov, former Prime Minister of Russia who was in of-

ation are areas of concern. Kasyanov argues that Rus-

fice from 2000 to 2004 during Putin’s first presidency,

sia’s unfortunate human rights record ‘compels the West

has taken a critical stance on his one-time successor sta-

to treat Russia as a country alien to European norms and

ting that ‘during Putin’s second term all democratic in-

values’. Recent events certainly support this perception

stitutions were gradually abolished’ and that ‘the system

with the so-called “Anti-NGO” bill, which forbids

of electoral democracy has entirely disappeared’. Kasy-

foreign involvement in domestic social causes, and the

anov refers to the ‘shameless falsification of the recent

“Anti-Gay” bill, which equates homosexuality to pe-

local elections’ as a case in point, with Marie Mendras’s

dophilia, both being passed by the Kremlin. Further-

book The Paradox of a Weak State arguing that the de-

more Russia’s commodity led market is predicted to

gree of fraud in Russia’s “free and fair” election system

continue to suffer through 2013, even Putin’s key sup-

ultimately points to a weakness in the regime and reluc-

port Alexander Voloshin admits that Russia suffers

tance to change.

from a ‘significant technological and innovation lag’. The need to modernize the mechanics of the economy

Today one of Russia’s biggest problems remains to be

and diversify the economy away from its reliance on

the contentious issue of change. Change is necessary for

energy remains the biggest hurdle if Russia is to com-

modernisation and international competitiveness, and

pete with her BRIC rivals.

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

Nonetheless not all is a dark as it seems. Putin has

litically, Putin’s move to take office for the fourth

taken steps to integrate women with appropriately

time has not inspired this atmosphere of change, ins-

sophisticated qualification into significant positions

tead many reminisce that it is like returning to old

of responsibility in the Duma. It would seem that

days of the USSR with corruption still rife. Robert

with such careful selection of these female members,

Dahl famously argued that legitimacy lay in de-

that they are not just there for decorative purposes.

mocracy, something that Russia certainly believes she

Equally, it would be fair to point out that there are

has, when in fact recent government bills and the do-

people who don’t participate in corruption, with Vo-

mestic outcry over the Pussy Riot case would indicate

loshin highlighting that ‘many decent, dedicated pe-

otherwise. The failure for these reforms to happen

ople working in government who are not motivated

ultimately must rest on those who have the power to

by money’. Moreover, some reform has been carried

pass them, as it is the interests of those select indi-

out. Putin has implemented significant reforms in the

viduals which would particularly be damaged through

tax system and passed a land reform which allows the

a restructuring of power. Russia has considerable po-

private ownership of agriculture land – which can be

tential to fulfill her BRIC status as the country is en-

seen as a big step away from Russia’s traditional

dowed with the necessary tools, unfortunately, it

communist roots.

lacks the drive to wield them.

Overall it would seem that if Russia is to develop

FIONA LÖFFEL is a second year Russian Studies

further, Russia must wholeheartedly embrace reform.

student at University College London

Economically the key drivers should be economic diversification and the privatization of industry. Po-

Dialogue | Winter 2013

Another grand summit, another postponement of the

go through now, with judicial and political decisions

big decisions. The streets of Athens, the home of de-

being overruled, he would be turning in his grave or

mocracy, resembles a disaster zone. Even Medicines

on the verge of going on a cognac-fuelled rant.

“

Sans Frontiers, which operates in third world countries, has now started providing healthcare in Greece

- their first mission in a western nation. Europe, along with Britain, has big choices to make.

… We want an independent Britain: trading with its allies, but governing itself.”

Many claim that it is not a central issue in the British

electorate’s mind. But the tentacles touch every part

It is impossible to think that the continent of Europe

of our national fabric, from competition laws, to jus-

can be a centralised federal state like that of the Unit-

tice, immigration, national security and so forth.

ed States of America. The continent is too diverse,

Most British Conservatives want a new relationship

politically, economically and socially for us to be

with the EU, based on free trade, intergovernmental

united only through sentiment. This is what makes

co-operation and alliance. We want Britain to work

each of our individual nation-states great, but it is

closely with its neighbours while retaining autonomy

also why Brussels cannot create a European national-

over its domestic affairs. We want us to remain full

ity.

partners in the single market, but we don’t believe that this requires us to accept the primacy of EU over

We want an independent Britain: trading with its al-

British law.

lies, but governing itself. Now of course this would entail withdrawing from a range of agreements such

The principle of sovereignty is key. But it is a serious

as European Trading Emissions Schemes, the ECHR

problem when we cannot deport those we believe to

and the Common Agricultural Policies amongst

be a threat to our national security. It is a problem

many others. Some will say that we’ll never achieve

when unelected European judges overrule our parlia-

all these objectives. We are not so pessimistic. The

ment’s and supreme courts decision to deny prisoners

relationship we have outlined is very similar to the

the vote. Many state Sir Winston Churchill as a great

one already enjoyed by Switzerland, the precedent

advocate of the European Court of Human Rights

exists.

(ECHR), but this was in the time of communist gulags and the deepest darkest depths of war. If he

We want to be in Europe - so long as it serves our

could witness what British politicians are having to

needs. An audit by the Foreign Office and the Treas-

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

ury is expected to announce in 2014 that we are now

grabs your arm and renegotiates, giving you what

net contributors to the EU by several billions of

you want. Why else has Germany, France et al not

pounds. The eurozone crisis is another symptom of

told us to leave? - because they value us, but not

the failures of the European political and economic

enough.

model. Leaders such as Barosso, Rompuy and Merkel just keep putting plasters of bailouts on the giant

If it is not on offer, so be it. It is at a time of crisis

bleeding open wound that is the massive financial

when one re-evaluates one’s relationship with the

deficit across the PIGS nations (Portugal, Ireland,

entity in question, not during the ‘good times’. We

Greece and Spain). The only two solutions are polit-

are the seventh largest economy on Earth, the

ically unpalatable to the European political elites

fourth military power, a member of the G8 and one

and the general European populations - either let the

of five permanent seat-holders on the UN Security

grand European project collapse - the nightmare of

Council. We have the 53 commonwealth nations, in

the elites, or turn to greater centralisation of Europe

which our relationship is changing greatly from aid,

with Germany at the centre of the decision-making

to trade. Our tongue is the most widely spoken on

process.

the planet. We are connected by law and language, by habit and sentiment, to every continent. Leaving

The UK has no intention of joining the euro, but we

the EU holds no terrors for us. The fact of the mat-

have an interest in seeing our geographical allies

ter is, it is an all-or-nothing challenge - either the

prosper. Many claim that Europe is half our export

European leaders need to take bold and necessary

market, but they say it as if Britain should be proud

decisions, or inevitably the British people will

of the fact we trade more to Ireland than the BRIC

make it for them.

nations combined, whilst the European market contracts quarter after quarter. But the ultimate judge of whether we’ve secured a good enough deal shouldn’t be me – or, indeed, any of the other party leaders. It should be the British

YAZDAN CHOWDHURY is the External Relations and Communications Officer for KCL Conservative Society and a BA student at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies.

people via a referendum at least 18 months from now. We will use the intervening period to seek to bring back the aforementioned improvements. If we get most of what we want, then we stay, and if we don’t, we leave. Not using the threat of leaving is like buying a car from a dodgy second-hand car salesman. If you tell him ‘regardless of what you say, I am buying a car from you today’, then of course you are going to get a shoddy deal. But it is only when you threaten to leave that the salesman Dialogue | Winter 2013

Propaganda and strategic communications are essential tools of national policy. In his 1942 study of war propaganda, Edward Bernays found that the “attitudes and actions” of foreign and domestic audiences were greatly influenced by the effective marketing of “national aims and policies.” Today, the marketing of national goals and policies takes place on a 24-hour news cycle, and in various online social networks. Consequently, national marketing and propaganda are always present in the social space of modern society. The contest for influence between the United States and China presents an interesting case study. While the United States holds formidable soft power resources in its culture and commerce, China has been making great advancements in selling its national narrative. To understand this phenomenon, it is necessary to understand the key components of an effective national marketing campaign - framing, connecting words with actions, and appealing to emotions and values instead of facts - using the communications campaigns of China and the United States.

Frame the Message Framing is the most fundamental tool of a persuasive communicator. As a rhetorical tool, framing is “a process whereby communicators, consciously or unconsciously, act to construct a point of view that encourages the facts of a given situation to be interpreted by others in a particular manner.” Cognitive linguists and politicians regularly use framing to alter perceptions in order to generate intended results. The USA PATRIOT Act is a perfect example. In the wake of 9/11, how could American politicians vote against an act that alludes to the concept of patriotism? The language and the evoked frame conspired against them – by voting against the act, these lawmakers would be perceived as unpatriotic. President George W. Bush used framing effectively when he successfully branded lowering taxes as “tax relief.” As George Lakoff points out, the frame implies that taxes are something inherently burdensome that must be relieved. Every time Democrats inadvertently use the phrase “tax re-

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

lief” they are successfully spreading Republican anti-tax propaganda. On an international scale, these principles work the same: countries want other countries to use their frames. The Chinese concepts of “peaceful rise” and “peaceful development” are similarly infectious. When American pundits and news outlets repeat these concepts, the notion of “peaceful” becomes inextricably associated with perceptions of China. But in order for such a message to truly “stick,” the message must be perceived as true.

Establish Credibility by Connecting Words with Actions China’s “peaceful rise” narrative is effective only if it appears true. Words therefore are important, but coordinating both actions and words is essential to an effective communications campaign. The recent controversy over the issuance of new Chinese passports illustrates this concept. In a shortsighted display of territorial ambitions, China issued new

Dialogue | Winter 2013

passports with a map that altered its borders to include Taiwan and the entire South China Sea. This aggressive claim of foreign territory undermines China’s suggestion that it is rising peacefully.

“

… ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’ allows the Chinese leadership to portray their system of governance as an ordinary brand of democratic socialism.”

But China is not the only country that contradicts is own rhetoric. During part of the War on Terror, the United States sacrificed its credibility by simultaneously advocating human rights and the rule of law while subjecting Al-Qaeda suspects to extraordinary rendition. The ultimate purpose of coordinating words and actions is to maintain credibility – without credibility, attempts at persuasive communication are futile.

Sell Values, Not Attributes In the movie “Thank You for Smoking,” Aaron Eckhart plays a lobbyist who demonstrates to his son the importance of argumentation by using a debate over the best flavor of ice cream as an analogy. Instead of marketing vanilla ice cream by highlighting its attributes, Eckhart declares that he needs more than chocolate or vanilla ice cream, and that he believes that “we need freedom and choice… and that is the definition of liberty.” His son is visibly confused by this apparent divergence from the discussion of ice cream, and does not understand that his father was winning the debate by selling values instead of attributes. Though everyone does not prefer vanilla ice cream to chocolate, most people would identify with the need for freedom and choice. It is no accident that the United States has marketed itself using phrases such as “the free world” instead of appealing to the quantitative advantages of American liberal capitalism. Appealing to values is a device that is closely related to framing – the rhetoric of “the free world” employs framing by implying that there is a corresponding part of the world that is not free.

Framing and using values to tell stories requires an understanding of culture. For instance, a Chinese citizen might interpret the concepts of “human rights” and “republic” very differently compared to a citizen of the United States. In order to be persuasive on any given issue, one must understand the position from which others must be persuaded.

National Marketing is Here to Stay At the recent 18th Chinese Communist Party Congress, both Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping regularly used phrases such as “moderately prosperous society” and “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” The repetition of such phrases reflects the desire of the Chinese Communist Party to communicate a consistent message. Ultimately, “moderately prosperous” and “socialism with Chinese characteristics” do not provide useful starting points for factual analysis, but they incorporate the key aspects of effective national marketing. The suggestion that Chinese society will be “moderately prosperous” uses framing to incite imagery of a reasonable, quiet pace of development which sounds benign, and is therefore a useful tool for managing international perceptions of a developing China. Similarly, “socialism with Chinese characteristics” allows the Chinese leadership to portray their system of governance as an ordinary brand of democratic socialism. Another illustration of similar marketing practices can be found in the official name of one of China’s neighbors – The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is clearly not democratic, cannot be considered a republic, and hardly belongs to its people, yet it attempts to portray itself as being each one of these. The attempt is doomed; though the DPRK attempts to sell values, it does not have an effective frame, and totally lacks credibility. States will continue to attempt national marketing campaigns, but if all three components of national marketing are not jointly implemented, these campaigns are likely to fail.

PETER CORNETT is a MA student at the King’s College London War Studies department.

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

“Aid is the past and trade is the future”, with these words India crossed yet another milestone on its journey to regain its place in the global order. While in the UK the debate about ending development aid centred on select trivia, like highlighting India’s expensive space programme, what got ignored was the fact that it is also a rising power in the international development arena. The £220m it was receiving from Britain pales in comparison to India’s own ambitious aid plans. Earlier this year it set up its own development agency with a five year budget of over $15bn and careful not to be seen as yet another ‘donor’, the initiative has been named Development Partnership Administration. Confident yet tentative; India is banking as much on ‘soft’ loans and its ‘soft power’ as on its strategic and military muscle.

“

… What India needs is to find its voice and speak confidently on issues that really matter.”

With the advent of globalisation, it has become fashionable to argue that along with rising economic clout, India’s cultural ‘brands’ like Buddha and Bollywood can propel it further into global superstardom. There is no denying that Indian films have long been a major draw among international audiences, ordinary people around the world gleefully suspend disbelief and escape into the Technicolor world of melodramas and fantasy tales of heroism. And it is also true that Indian diaspora and its cultural icons share with globalisation the idea of ‘hybridity’ and hence can add to India’s global appeal. The ubiquity of chicken tikka masala in Britain is often cited as a case of its growing ‘soft power’. But Bollywood fantasy tales can hardly be a substitute for political posturing. Doling international aid is also inadequate to Dialogue | Winter 2013

sustain a serious political agenda. What India needs is to find its voice and speak confidently on issues that really matter.

It’s a post- Al Jazeera world Even in this informational era, no nation can impress the world by staying mute on contentious politics. Despite globalisation, perhaps because of it, brute economic and social realities are what most people and governments care about. And they would want to know India’s stand on issues that still divide the world. Where is the voice of India on Arab uprisings, on the global financial crisis and the future of capitalism, on climate change and the ‘new normal’ of oil prices? If there is one place the world gathers to discuss and deliberate on these issues, it is in the global public sphere, both online and in the international broadcasting arena. American networks ranging from the classic propagandist channels to the privately owned CNN International were early movers, and alongside the BBC and Murdoch’s Sky News they have incessantly expanded their reach since the first Gulf war. But since then several new actors including Russia’s RT, France’s News24, China’s CCTV, Iran’s PRESS TV, Venezuela’s Tele SUR, and numerous other state and nonstate news broadcasters now reach not just the English speaking world but also the Arabic, Francophone, Spanish and Lusophone audiences worldwide. But perhaps the most ambitious and successful new player in this arena is Qatar’s Al Jazeera. Such is the credibility and appeal of its broadcasts that the joke in diplomatic circles is that Al Jazeera is a country with Qatar as its capital! A few years ago when the former Egyptian President M.H. Mubaraq visited Qatar, like most foreign digni20

taries in this tiny GCC country he went to see the Al Jazeera studios. He is said to have quipped "All this noise from this matchbox?" The fact that a few years later Al Jazeera had some role in ending Mubaraq’s regime is an instructive tale for anyone interested in the changing nature of power in the 21st century. Almost no aspiring nation, whether pursuing a ‘hard’ or a ‘soft’ route to global power, whether a democracy or an authoritarian dictatorship, can ignore the success of Al Jazeera. Hence it is even more surprising that despite its vibrant domestic press, a constitutional democratic tradition and above all its ‘argumentative tradition’, India should remain an exception when it comes to international broadcasting.

What happened, how did India lose its voice? If one looks back at its strategic and diplomatic history it is indeed striking that even as its economic and military power has grown, India’s voice in the global arena has receded. It is also surprising given that India’s own founding father and one of the most famous democrats of the 20th century, Jawaharlal Nehru, surpassed all his contemporaries when it comes to publicly engaging the world on contentious issues. He was particularly assertive when championing the cause of the Third World and its fight against imperialism. His robust, perhaps occasionally hoary, speeches inspired a generation of campaigners for democracy; South Africa’s Nelson Mandela and Burma’s Aung San Suu Kyi count him among their heroes. The reason why India lacks its international voice today perhaps goes all the way back to the decades that followed after Nehru.

From the late 1960s onwards India slowly slid into a post-colonial spiral, its secular internationalist vision overwhelmed by a rising tide of authoritarianism and narrow cultural nationalism at home. Despite the tremendous surge in ‘South-South’ broadcasting agenda promoted by the UNESCO and NWICO debates in the late 1970s, India failed to cease the momentum in international broadcasting arena. To highlight the failure, a critic drew comparison between Nehru visionary ideas to his daughter Indira ‘televisionary’ instincts. Like many others in the postcolonial world, 21

Indian leadership after Nehru had an instinctive mistrust of a liberal press agenda, and sadly, ever since its birth, India’s public broadcaster has languished in bureaucratic red-tape.

A shared agenda, a new voice in Asia The primary rationale why India must aspire to regain its international voice is because its development goals remain unfulfilled. As a natural heir to its ‘NonAligned’ legacy, an independent Indian (tele) vision, articulated through international broadcasting, could even align and synchronise its development agenda with its Asian neighbourhood, if not with the rest of the developing world. International broadcasting could give the Indian civil society a novel platform to discuss and shape the global development agenda, and simultaneously opening a window for others to see how a Third World postcolonial nation struggles to stay on its democratic course. Given their own record on press freedom at home, countries like China and Russia can hardly impress an attentive global audience.

Al Jazeera’ literally translates as ‘The Island’, and it represents a solitary yet a very liberal and progressive vision a modern monarch, the Emir of Qatar. A nonaligned Indian broadcaster could offer an even wider news agenda. In the 21st century it is a remarkable anachronism that despite being home to over a fifth of the world's population, even today there is no South-Asian news network that has a focus on Asia let alone the world. Instead of being an island, India could become what an Indian political theorist called it, a ‘bridging power’. The world awaits an international broadcaster that seeks to bridge the great divides of our time, between development and sustainability, between growth and equality, between freedoms and responsibilities, and most vitally, between the West and the rest.

AASIM KHAN is a PhD Candidate at the King’s College London India Institute

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

Dialogue | Winter 2013

Overshadowed by the US presidential election, the introduction of China’s new leader Xi Jinping at the 18

cy, the initiative explicitly called for political reforms in more competitive intra-party elections to choose CCP

National Congress is significant far beyond China’s bor-

officials.

ders. As a leadership change that only happens once in

Since 1982 some Chinese authorities have adopted a

decade, China’s rapid growth and expansion under Hu

more competitive method of election which allowed

Jintao leaves Xi Jinping confronting difficult questions

multiple candidates to run for a single seat on the Cen-

of wider reform in the coming decade. The idea that

tral Committee (cha’e xuanju). Jiangsu Province was a

China stands at this “crossroads” of reform has been

pioneering area for this approach from 2002 to 2007

mentioned repeatedly in both international and domestic

under the leadership of the local Party Secretary Li

media, nevertheless the western press remains sceptical

Yuanchao. In September 2009, a total of 363 party com-

that reform can be facilitated by a politburo where the

mittees belonging to local neighborhoods had direct

majority indicate a strong conservative stance.

elections for their local Party leaders.

The past decades has seen China undergo a transition

Similarly in Guangdong Province, “Guidelines for Go-

from a monolithic party apparatus, led by a single strong leader, to a diverse system of collective leadership, where competition among rival factions is far more accepted into the government system. It is now questions of political, rather economic, reform that are being widely discussed. A recent poll by China’s newspaper People’s Daily confirmed this idea and highlighted the three driving forces of this movement: the development of a public democracy, the expansion of intraparty democracy and a greater transparency in government administration.

Intra-Party Democracy: Pilot Projects and Prospects Ever since the issue of “intra-party democracy” was raised in the 15th National Congress, it has subsequently been widely criticised as “asking a doctor to perform surgery on his or her own body”. As a direct challenge to the Chinese Communist Party’s top-down democra-

vernment Reforms in Shenzhen for the Short-Term Future” was posted on the website of the municipal government in May 2008. It specified that delegates to the district or municipal People’s Congresses in Shenzhen would elect heads of districts and through the new competitive system. Four heads of municipal bureaus were elected in this way, each chosen from a group of two or three candidates. The success of the pilot projects under the leadership of Wang Yang laid the groundwork for applying this method to the election for Mayor and Vice – Mayor of Shenzhen, a city of 10 million people. However in the recent 18th National Congress, the two leading contributors of these experimental reforms, Li Yuanchao and Wang Yang, who had been not only been seen as stars of China’s political reform but also promising politburo members, failed to gain a seat in the Standing Committee. On the one hand it would seem that this reflects the wider party’s rejection of such radical reform approaches, but in fact it may rather be a rejection of Wang Yang’s method, not his ideals.

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

Public Democracy:

take one's own words as the law, place one's own aut-

Transforming the National People’s Congress

hority above the law or abuse the law.” How this will

determine interpretations of the constitution is critical,

The report of the 18 Party Congress highlighted that

but the key challenge is the execution. One significant

the reform of the National People Congress’ (NPC) has

omission in the report is the reference to the regulation

taken place by “reducing the proportion of party cadres

for disclosing personal assets of officials in the legisla-

in the National People Congress and other legislative

tive body. This omission suggests that obstruction from

bodies”. The significance of this rests in the NPC’s

within the party remains the biggest hurdle in the

ability to make important nation-wide political decis-

execution in the intended anti-corruption legislation.

ions such as: the amendment and enforcement of the constitution, the enactment of basic laws and the

The report of the 18th Party Congress seems more like a

election and appointment of members to central state

compass than a clear map that outlines China’s future

positions. Given that 70% of the Congress are party

under Xi Jinping. The pressure for the future is high,

members, the NPC has been labelled a “rubber stamp

with just over seven years until 2020 where China’s

parliament” by the critics. A reform which could reduce

government is hoping to meet Hu Jintao’s promise of

the proportion of party members in the NPC would al-

building “a moderately prosperous society in all re-

low non-party members to have equal influence within

spects, with deepening reform and opening up”. This

the NPC and also appease the critics.

declaration will make it increasingly imperative for Xi Jinping to have a substantial response to the citizen’s

Anti-Corruption: A Long Road A further issue that the recent 18th Party Congress tackled was corruption. The report expressed the intent to

appeals for reform, but internal opposition from within the party may still grind the wheels of progress to a halt.

“eliminate the abuse of government power” and emphasized that “no organization or individual has the privilege of overstepping the constitution and laws, and no one in a position of power is allowed in any way to

Dialogue | Winter 2013

LIJUAN DONG is an MA student at King’s College London’s Department of Political Economy

As the 18th largest country in the world with a populat-

Iran is seeking nuclear weapons. Despite Tehranâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s

ion of 75 million, Iran is not particularly noted for its

emphasis on its peaceful purposes, there remains a

ancient history or its vibrant culture in western headli-

growing concern over its ambitions to weaponize. Much

nes, but is instead rather infamous for its nuclear pro-

of these concerns are primarily rooted in lack of con-

gram. The international community debates diplomacy

structive diplomatic channels and the historical tensions

and war as the two resolutions to the Iranian nuclear

between Iran and the West â&#x20AC;&#x201C; most notably with the U.S.

crisis. As the former fails to succeed, the supporters of the latter call for war. However, another alternative ex-

Second, let us assume that diplomacy fails. International

ists which has been lost in the fog of war: deterring a

and unilateral sanctions have been used as diplomatic

nuclear Iran. If diplomacy fails, deterring a nuclear Iran

means to increase the costs for Iran and promote nego-

is a politically painful, but the strategically effective

tiations. Supporters of the sanctions insist on the increa-

policy to consider.

sing pressure on the Iranian economy and its opponents emphasize the way in which sanctions have become the

For a better understanding of the dynamics of this crisis,

end instead of means for promoting negotiations. But

let us make two assumptions. First, let us assume that

one matter is clear: the sanctions are yet to succeed in

Dialogue | Winter 2013

achieving their objective of bringing parties to the nego-

London discussed the enormous costs of developing

tiation table, leaving us with the scenario that diplo-

nuclear programs in the Middle East to concluded that

macy has failed.

“regional proliferation is not a very likely outcome at

“ all”.

Under such a scenario there are two propositions: a military operation by Israel or the U.S. against the Iranian ambitions, or deterring a nuclear Iran. The proponents of a military operation justify their case on the bases of the dangers of a nuclear Iran, among other arguments, prominently claiming that it will trigger a reg-

… The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has gone as far as comparing the impacts of

ional arms race and annihilates Israel. In doing so, they

“a nuclear-armed Iran to the Nazi

misunderstand the consequences of a nuclear Iran and

Holocaust”.

underestimate the immense complexity of this military operation.

The second prominent argument for a military operation against Iran claims that it will threaten the existence of

They argue that if Iran obtains the weapon it will trigger

Israel. Statements by Iranian statesmen are cited to de-

a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. The Arabic ne-

monstrate the irrationality of Iranian leaders and their

ighbors of Iran and Turkey will pursue their own nu-

intents to annihilate Israel. The Israeli Prime Minister,

clear weapons programs, creating hyper-proliferation in

Benjamin Netanyahu, has gone as far as comparing the

an already volatile region. Support for this argument has

impacts of “a nuclear-armed Iran to the Nazi Ho-

come from the published private conversations of Arab

locaust”.

leaders by Wikileaks, as well as public statements by the Turkish President.

Nevertheless the Iranian leaders should be perceived as rational and fundamentally interested in the preservat-

But the reality is different than the rhetoric. Developing

ion of their regime. After the 1979 Islamic revolution,

nuclear programs is far too complex to achieve in the

Iran has been using its Islamic political identity to

short term. In fact, the Iranian nuclear program itself

obtain regional hegemony. Their statements should the-

dates back to the 1950s. In 1963, U.S. President, JF

refore be seen as a tool of Iranian soft power, aiming to

Kennedy predicted additional “twenty-five nuclear

increase Iran’s regional influence in the anti-Israeli at-

weapons powers within” a decade. After four decades,

mosphere of the Middle East. Moreover, they are fully

there are only four more. Instead, the military alliance

aware of the balance of power in the region. Not only

of the United States with many countries can provide

does the United States have very close military alliance

the necessary security assurances against a nuclear Iran

with Israel, but Israel is also estimated to have over 200

to prevent an arms race. Ironically, after Israel obtained

nuclear weapons with second strike capability. There-

nuclear weapons, the same Arabic states relied on the

fore, the costs of Iran using nuclear missiles to anni-

U.S. security guarantees and did not go nuclear. A simi-

hilate Israel, for an Iranian regime focused on survival,

lar trend was seen with South-Korea and Japan, after

would be too grave to consider.

the 2006 North-Korean nuclear test. Consequently, a

Likewise, the proponents of this military operat-

recent study conducted by scholars at King’s College

ion underestimate its complexities. The highly secured

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

Iranian nuclear facilities, unlike previous cases in Iraq

can interests. Indeed, if the Iranian regime is as irrat-

and Syria, are spread along a large country with some

ional as the proponents of such operation claim, this

centers buried deeply underground. According to U.S.

limited operation will turn into a full-scale war.

and Israeli assessments, a successful operation delays Iran’s ambitions limiting its benefits to two to four

Considering its costs and benefits, a military operation

years.

against Iran would be a deconstructive and harmful approach that will fail to achieve its objective: prevenHowever, its costs will be enormous. The debate

ting a weaponized Iran. Diplomacy continues to have

within the Iranian regime will shift in support of anti-

the chance of clarifying Iran’s intentions and provi-

Western figures that favor military retaliation rather

ding a successful agreement. But if it fails to do so,

than diplomacy. With a nationalistic society and anti-

deterring a nuclear Iran will be the politically painful

Western regional sympathies, they will be supported.

but strategically effective option. One that must in-

As Iran has clarified, it may exit the Non-Proliferation

volve clear red lines by the international community

Treaty (NPT) to dismiss the current limited Internat-

against use or spread of nuclear weapons by Iran,

ional Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) monitoring. The-

military alliances to prevent an arms race and Cold-

reby it will have the justification to secretively develop

War style communication networks with Tehran for

nuclear weapons on defensive grounds. Meanwhile, it

crisis management.

can blockade the strait of Hormuz; a critical oil trading path, to threaten global economic recovery and mobilize its proxies to undermine the Israeli and Ameri-

Dialogue | Winter 2013

RAMTIN HAJIMONSHI is a second year International Studies student at King’s College London

The ceasefire reached between Israel and Hamas on 21st

preferring to allow Israel to pick up the baton and sort

November represents a surprising arc regarding Egypt’s

disputes themselves, while superficially placating the

role in truce negotiations. Initial fears formed in the

Palestinians. Indeed, the comparison with the post-

aftermath of elections in May 2011 that the Muslim

Mubarak era is stark; Morsi has been at the forefront of

Brotherhood would serve as bulwark to regional peace

ceasefire negotiations.

prospects, have been shattered by the plaudits that have reigned in on President Mohammad Morsi by the

Discussions during the crisis took place between the

international community. Arriving as an unknown

Egyptian and Israelis through the intelligence services, in

quantity, Morsi has effectively transitioned from the head

which demands were forwarded from Hamas to Israel,

of an Islamist organisation that refuses to directly engage

concurrent to direct talks with Hamas leaders in Gaza.

with Israelis, to a man that is now Israel’s de facto

Morsi was delicately obliged to meet international

protector. Indeed, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

expectation while reflecting the wider Egyptian public

among others has praised Morsi’s “personal leadership” in

opinion, which overwhelmingly favours the Palestinian

brokering the ceasefire. However, a call by Mohammed

cause. As such, a number of challenges await. First and

Badei, the Muslim Brotherhood’s top cleric, for jihad on

foremost, the Morsi administration in Cairo must prevent

the liberation of Palestinian territories highlights the

the carriage of Iranian-assembled Fajr-5 medium-range

fractious nature of the peace at hand.

rockets via Sudan through the numerous Gaza border tunnels.

The Israeli offensive, Operation Pillar of Defence which began on 14th November saw some 1,500 airstrikes on

The difficulty facing the Muslim Brotherhood government

Hamas-related targets in Gaza, as Hamas and associated

is that Hamas is very much its political offspring, and as

militant groups deployed hundreds of rockets into Israel, a

such a degree of affinity is at hand. An important by-

few as far as Tel Aviv. More than 160 Palestinians and six

product is that Morsi is not inhibited by a requirement to

Israelis have been killed. The clashes represent the most

limited Hamas gains from any truce. He made it explicit

serious fighting since the Israeli invasion of Gaza in late

during an address at the UN General Assembly in

2008-early 2009. As Palestinian President Mahmoud

September, that while the Muslim Brotherhood would

Abbas’s Fatah party remains impotent in the Gaza Strip,

honour the 1978 Camp David peace treaty, it would also

alternative third parties remain in short supply.

seek to “challenge the status quo”.

Egypt has long celebrated its cultural and diplomatic

Yet within this conundrum, the truce established requires

power in the region yet had appeared to become

Hamas to prove it is still the guardian of the Palestinian

exceedingly peripheral under previous president Hosni

resistance movement. This includes restraining smaller

Mubarak. Prior conflicts between Israel and Hamas would

Salafist pockets within Gaza, particularly the Iran-backed

see Mubarak distance himself from the Hamas leadership,

Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Should Gaza be stabilised with a

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

Hamas leadership, the greater likelihood of the strip morphing

willingness to engage with Morsi. Borne not so much

into a second Palestinian statelet. Naturally, there are

out of confidence in Morsi, Israel’s agreement is rather

limitations to the degree of responsibility both Cairo and Israel

a recognition and consciousness that Egypt represents

will accept regarding Gaza.

its best hope of restraining Hamas rocket attacks. The Muslim Brotherhood, though a less flexible partner, is

With the opening of border crossings a key aspect of the

now arguably a stronger partner.

ceasefire, Egyptian influence is paramount. It remains highly unlikely that Cairo would agree to open the Rafah crossing

Cairo’s

enthusiasm for

negotiating a

ceasefire

without reciprocal action by Israel as Egypt is unwilling to bear

agreement is perhaps influenced by the need to

any liability from Gaza. To do so could severely impact

establish a credible regime in a region on the back end

lingering hopes for a unified Palestinian state.

of the Arab Spring, and increase its standing in the White House. Egypt is currently experiencing a

Nonetheless, the mobilisation of Israeli troops along the Gaza

multitude of economic, social and political problems,

border could have made this a reality. Had IDF troops invaded,

which some critics have argued are being neglected as

Morsi would have been under considerable pressure to open

Morsi traverses the international arena. Crucially, the

Egypt’s north-eastern border to refugees. A great deal can be

constitutional writing process is rapidly deteriorating

learnt about Egypt’s newly found exalted position from Israel

along Islamist-liberal lines, as clashes erupt between police and protesters on the streets of Cairo. These is are likely to be exacerbated by a US$4.8bn IMF loan, obliging it to end subsidies on items such as fuel that will inevitably lead to price rises at a time of economic suffering. Nevertheless, the prospects for reconciliation are best purported by Egypt. As Qatar and Turkey begin to play vital roles in mediating conflicts across the region, an emboldened Egypt on the international stage is ideally placed to ensure the ceasefire holds. Hamas is walking a tightrope should it violate the agreement as it risks emerging from the conflict with a colossal loss of sympathy. The essential caveat facing Hamas would be if was forced to justify to President Morsi, and not Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as to why it placed Egypt’s newly found credibility on the line.

FARAZ NASIR is analyst at a global risk management company and a former MA student in the War Studies department at King’s College London.

Dialogue | Winter 2013

Born amidst waves of revolution and independence from

irrigation on export industrial crops and on key self-

neighbouring authoritarian regimes, Syria’s struggle for de-

sufficiency crops has not only damaged the salinity of farm-

mocracy continues with no definite end in sight. President

land, but also amplified the water scarcity crisis in rural areas.

Bashar al-Assad, of the Socialist Ba’ath party, continues to

This has left many rural areas impoverished, and has led to

fend off domestic opposition in a bloody wrestle for power.

more disapproval of Assad’s leadership.

As we now step into the crisis’ second year, we should reflect on the origins of the conflict and its impact in the international political arena.

However, the present suffering of Syrian civilians overshadows long established, underlying issues. Figures dating from the end of 2012 estimate that the civilian death toll under the

To begin to understand what the future for Syria may look

hands of Assad and his government stand at around 40,000.

like, it is important to examine the foundations of the current

However, in early 2013, the United Nation’s (UN) estimates

conflict. Beginning in March 2011, waves of public protests

argue that it stands closer to 60,000. Assad’s regime has uti-

were triggered by the torture of a group of teenagers by state-

lised Syrian security forces to tackle what they deem as un-

led police as punishment for painting revolutionary slogans

founded acts of extreme violence against the government.

on their school wall in the southern city of Deera. Although

Although bomb blasts and shootings now seem to be a daily

many press reports point to this as the origin of the conflict,

occurrence on the streets of main cities like Homs, massacres,

this event should be viewed more as the trigger to a crisis that

like the May 2012 killing of 108 people, which included the

has deeper roots in the very nature of Assad’s regime.

deaths of 49 children, still have the ability to shock and high-

As an American governmental report argues, the current crisis has roots in Hafiz al Assad’s rise to power in 1970. Since then, the Syrian people have been living in fear and repression with an elitist top-down decision-making government, a strong police presence and a complete denial of many fundamental human and civil rights. Although the regime has attempted to gain popular support through economic initiatives such as Hafez’s Euphrates Basin Development Project (EBDP), which promised to bring electricity and irrigation to rural and urban centres, as well as Hafez and Bashar’s emphasis on cultivating lucrative crops such as cotton and wheat, the failure of these projects to meet the promises made

light the bloodshed occurring. It is this extreme violence that has led to a further crisis with long-term implications for the Syrian nation: the displacement of hundreds of thousands, possibly even millions, of refugees into bordering countries such as Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon and Turkey. The population drain and destruction of homes and entire cities will make rebuilding Syria a long and treacherous task. One only needs to look to neighbouring countries that have undergone civil war and revolution to understand that Syria will need significant amounts aid to rebuild from a crisis that still has no end in sight.

by the regime severely undermined their popularity. Jessica

It is now widely believed that the end to the bloodshed will

Barnes’ agricultural study of Syria further elaborates on the

only be possible through international intervention. The bru-

failure of such initiatives, by adding that the excessive use of

tality of Assad’s regime, and the increasing civilian death toll

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

have been widely reported in the western media, which have long demanded an immediate intervention by international powers. President Obama called for Assad’s resignation in August 2011, lobbying the United Nations Security Council to intercede and end the violence. However, the resolution failed to pass after being vetoed by Russia and China. In April 2012, the peace plan that had been negotiated by UN envoy Kofi Annan, which saw observers being deployed to monitor a ceasefire, also failed with the escalation of violence and Kofi Anan’s subsequent resignation. Anan’s successor, Lakhdar Brahimi, now handles the task of drawing agreement from major powers, a task that is made even more difficult with Assad’s iron grip strengthening with the weakening of Syria’s divided opposition. One decision the major powers continue to agree upon, however, is a rejection of military intervention. A growing number of commentators argue that intervention is justifiable now, more than ever, in the wake of escalating humanitarian crises, as well as with the benefit of possibly severing Syria’s close ties with Iran. Nevertheless, the “ghosts” of the Iraq war cause western hesitation, as intervention could trigger destabilization that could escalate into a wider regional crisis and a neverending cycle of intervention. Although, even if major powers were to be given a mandate to proceed, the problem remains that Russia and China refuse to support military intervention, and that Syria currently lacks a cohesive and credible political body that could effectively govern in the wake of Assad’s downfall. Many hope that 2013 will see the end to the Syrian crisis with the removal of Assad, and with it the slaughter of countless civilians. But questions remain of who and how a resolution should be created. The recent behaviour of major powers indicate that they would prefer an internal solution be found, but if this fails it will leave the major international powers’ hands as bloody as Assad’s. GEORGINA SINGER is a second year International Studies student at King’s College London

Dialogue | Winter 2013

The results of this year’s election do not fix the chal-

lies by the candidates were not distributed equally

lenges that Obama faced in his first term. Barack Obama

throughout the country. Swing-states such as Florida

is still the president, Republicans are still the majority in

and Ohio received the most campaign funding,

the House of Representatives and Democrats are still the

because they traditionally have an even distribution of

majority in the Senate. In his second-term Obama and

Democratic and Republican votes. According to

the executive branch will still have to win over a Repub-

CNN, Obama and Romney spent the most on political

lican-controlled House to pass legislation, developing

advertisements in the states of Florida, Ohio, District

economies will continue to challenge the American glo-

of Columbia, Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. All

bal hegemony and the economy remains the most im-

of them besides the District of Columbia are conside-

portant issue to most Americans. According to the Center for Responsive Politics, the price of this year’s election is more than six billion dollars. It is the most expensive in American history, and $700 million more than the 2008 election. The cost reveals one of the greatest weaknesses of democracy; it is expensive. The result of all the spending is a govern-

“

red swing-states.

… However, the greatest flaw of the Electoral College system is that it does not represent the popular vote”.

ment that has hardly changed. Ironically government spending was one of the most contentious topics in this

However, the greatest flaw of the Electoral College

year’s election.

system is that it does not represent the popular vote. In this year’s election Obama won 332 Electoral Col-

Due to the Electoral College system that the United Sta-

lege votes compared to Romney’s 206, a result almost

tes uses to elect their president, campaign funds and rall-

as assuring as Obama’s victory in 2008. What this result fails to demonstrate is the evenness of the popular vote. Obama won 50.4 percent of the popular vote compared to Romney’s 48 percent. The results of the popular vote better demonstrate the competitiveness between Republicans and Democrats compared to the one-sided results of the Electoral College. The Electoral College system has a history of undermining the role of the popular vote. In the 2000 election Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore narrowly won the popular vote against his opponent

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

Republican George W. Bush. However, since Bush ex-

paigning to swing voters in their favor, which does not

ceeded the threshold of 270 by winning 271 Electoral

encourage trust between the two parties. Distrust could

College votes he was declared the victor of the election,

stall the process of breaking the stalemate and passing

and thus secured his role as the president. If the election

a fiscal reform.

were not decided through the Electoral College system candidates would focus their campaigns throughout a greater proportion of the nation instead of towards key swing-states.

Not only is Congress polarized after the election, but the much of the public is as well. According to the Huffington Post every state in the union has filed a request to secede from the union after Obama’s victory announcement. The petitions are being filed through

This year’s election will not empower Obama’s influence on passing legislation; it may even reduce his influence. One of the most pressing actions his cabinet must initiate early in the second-term is to negotiate a fiscal overhaul. If an agreement is not made this year, the United States faces the risk of falling off the “fiscal cliff.” This would lead to a combination of significant spending cuts and tax increases. According to Bloomberg, this combination could put the United States back

the White House’s “We The People” online petition tool. As of December 3rd the Texas petition has gathered more than 118,430 signatures, which is more than enough to be considered by the White House. Republican Texas Governor Rick Perry is just one the many high-ranking officials who have declined their support for the petition. Even though it is extremely unlikely that states will succeed, it does demonstrate that many citizens distrust the government.

in a recession, and shoot the unemployment rate back to more than 9 percent from its current 7.9 percent.

No country spends more on their head of state elections than the United States, yet the result of this year’s

Throughout the election Romney and the Republicans attacked Obama’s proposed tax plan, which includes increasing the income tax on high-income households and lowering the corporate tax while making it more difficult for multinationals to avoid paying taxes on their foreign income. Democrats believe this strategy

election are an identical government which will face the same challenges encountered in Obama’s first

term.

NICK SWYTER is a second year student at the University of Miami, U.S.A.

will reduce the deficit, Republicans believe that the plan would decrease spending, thus putting the country back in a recession. Obama’s obstacle to reaching a deal for fiscal reform is the current stalemate in Congress. Republicans control 241 seats in the House of Representatives, compared to the 192 Democratic seats, leaving Republicans with a comfortable majority. To avoid falling off the fiscal cliff Congress must consider the urgency of getting a deal done to break its current stalemate. The Obama and Romney camps both used persistent negative cam-

Dialogue | Winter 2013

Much has been said about Brazil’s rise in the global

Brazil is still ranked amongst the top 15 countries

arena along with the other BRIC countries (Russia,

with the worst income distribution. Official data from

India and China). However, can Brazil actually be-

IBGE (Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statis-

come a global power? Does Brazil have what it takes

tics) shows that the richest 10 per cent of Brazilian

to be a recognised global force? This article will fo-

families earn 50 per cent of the aggregate family in-

cus on some aspects of Brazil’s political, social and

come, while the poorest 50 per cent only earn 10 per

“

economic structures to argue that the country’s rise is

hugely overestimated and until some issues are seri-

ously addressed, its full potential will not be realised.

When one thinks about Brazil, many images come to

mind: - the beaches, the Amazon and the carnivals. The country’s social problems have become well

cent.

..corruption seems to be so intrinsically entwined with the political system that unless there is a political reform, it will continue dragging Brazil down.”

known abroad more recently though, perhaps due to a

Violence as a by-product of inequality and poverty is

number of films highlighting the issue of violence and

another issue to tackle. Although the favelas in Rio

poverty, racism and inequality, or simply by the fact

have been partly pacified, violence is a problem in the

that with Brazil’s economic rise, it was bound to be

whole country and recent deadly confrontations be-

examined more closely by international actors. It is

tween the police and criminals in Sao Paulo, the

social inequality, however, that has long dragged the

country’s largest city, which has left 140 dead, shows

country down in international comparisons and statis-

that Brazil still has a lot to change, not least because

tics. Although some improvements have been made

Sao Paulo’s rate of violence had actually been declin-

(the Gini coefficient, which measures levels of ine-

ing for the past decade.

quality, went from 0.602 in 1997 to 0.53 in 2010),

Winter 2013 | Dialogue

Optimists would argue that as long as the economy

South Africa, India and Russia, which are some of its

is growing, it is only a matter of time and invest-

main competitors for a global power status – partly due

ment until social issues are resolved. However, the

to its poor educational system. The massive apprecia-

economic stability and growth seen in the past dec-

tion of its currency and the increased competition from

ade cannot be guaranteed to continue. Brazil’s rate

China, along with the burdensome tax and pension sys-

of investment remains low compared to some

tems pose further challenges to the idea of continuous

Asian economies, which invest an average of 15 to

growth in the next decades. Political corruption, which

30 per cent of GDP, compared to Brazil’s 18 to 20

has long been an issue in the country, has a negative

per cent. According to Werner Baer, the lack of

impact in the economy as well and although some high

investment, especially in infrastructure, is and will

profile cases have been judged (as the Mensalao case,

continue being a barrier for further growth.

for instance), corruption seems to be so intrinsically entwined with the political system that unless there is a

Furthermore competitiveness remains low, as Bra-

political reform, it will continue dragging Brazil down.

zil ranks 64th out of 134 countries – behind China, The last aspect to look at is military capacity. Although there is nothing to say that a country without military power cannot become a global power, this lack of military authority can be a weakness in international security issues. Amongst the BRIC countries, Brazil is the one with the lowest ability to project military power beyond its region. Although this does not necessarily represent an issue in the country’s defence since South America remains largely peaceful, it does pose a problem to its international intervention capacity (which is an important aspect if Brazil wants a seat in the UN Security Council). As a legacy of the transition from a military regime to a democracy and the relative peace

Dialogue | Winter 2013

of its region, the country neglected military im-

lence and social inequality remain too important

provements for years, to the point where in 2008

and not enough has been done to solve them.

its military capacity reached its lowest level. Most

Moreover, although economic power is important,

of its equipment is old and not fully operational

it cannot be sustained in the long term unless some

and the morale of its officers remains low due to

deep reforms are made. Lastly, military power, or

the low salaries and prestige. Although spending

the lack of thereof, poses a final problem to

has increased from 1.5% of GDP to 2.7%, there is

Brazilâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s ambitions of a global power status.

still much to do.

MARIA PIA TISSOT is a MA Student at the Kingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s College London Brazil Institute

In conclusion, although there are many aspects of modern Brazil that seem to indicate a potential for global status, some domestic problems like vio-

Dialogue | Winter 2013

“Who can imagine, today, solving the problems of the world without Brazil?” Brazil’s transformation into a global player has left the world fascinated by the Brazilian model’s key political and economic components that have founded its incredible success...

etter:

with a GDP of US$2,518 billion in

2011, Brazil became the world’s sixth-largest

economy overtaking the UK. 69% of Brazilians say their country is moving in the right direction and 71% that Brazil’s current economic situation is “very good”.

BBB:

ousseff,

Dilma:

Forbes

designated

Brazil’s current President as third most powerful woman worldwide.

Reserves:

in the last decade, Brazil’s international

reserves increased tenfold.

while the credit grade of several European

countries dropped, Brazil’s improved from BBB- to BBB in November 2011.

Barrel:

Mao Zedong said: “power comes out of the

barrel of a gun”; today, power comes out of a barrel of oil. President Lula stated: oil is Brazil’s “passport for the future” and as Petrobras’ CEO states: “Brazil’s oil indus-

Rio de Janeiro:

hosting two worldwide sports

events (the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics) will put Brazil in the spotlight and demonstrate its international credibility.

griculture:

Brazil is the world’s third-

largest agricultural exporter (40% of its produc-

try is doing very well”. Petrobras ranked tenth worldwide

tion is exported) and fifth-largest producer. Brazil ranks

and fourth in oil and gas production.

first or second globally for the production and export of many foodstuffs (e.g. half of world sugar trade and 30%

Bolsa Familía:

poverty dropped from 37.5% to

of world coffee trade).

24.9% over 2001-2009; 23.4 million people were lifted out of poverty. The growing consumption of the emerging middle class (53.9% of the population) boosts Brazil’s economy: e.g. last August, it was the thirdlargest market for car sales worldwide.

Batista, Eike:

is the seventh richest man world-

wide. Brazil’s number of millionaires grew most worldwide; the sum of their fortunes surpasses the EU countries international reserves.

Dialogue | Winter 2013

Amazon rainforest:

Brazil actively partici-

pates in environmental debates and hosted the 2012

ore, has become Brazil’s first commercial partner and has stimulated Brazil’s economy.

Rio+20 conference .

Security Council:

African or Arab countries: Brazil showed

international recognition is a seat on the United Nations

interest in diversifying its commercial and political partners. If Africa was a single commercial partner for Brazil, it would rank fourth. Brazil has the fifth largest number of embassies in Africa. Compared to his BRIC counterparts, President Lula is the BRIC leader who has travelled to Africa the most. He was the first Brazilian Head of State to officially visit the Middle East, and it was Brazil who hosted the first South American-Arab countries Summit.

Aid:

aid provided by BRICS to poor nations over

2005-2010 grew ten times faster than that provided by the G7. Brazil’s assistance spending reached US$1.2 billion in 2010, showing its ambition to project greater influence in developing nations. Moreover Brazil implements local variations of successful national initiatives, like 23 Bolsa Familia inspired projects.

pringboard:

Brazil encourages regional

integration initiatives: Dilma Rousseff suggested

South American states could be stronger together. This

Brazil’s strongest claim to

Security Council, where Brazil sat ten times as a nonpermanent member from 1946 to 2011. Brazil has also been leading the Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) since 2004.

Soft power:

Brazil rejects using force to solve

conflicts and strongly promotes negotiation, relying on its tradition of diplomacy and “soft power” for global influence.

MF:

Brazil

advocates

for

the

multi-

polarisation and “democratisation” of the world

order, with greater participation of emerging powers in world affairs and international organisations. 2) Having long been a recipient of international financial aid, Brazil now contributes to the IMF rescue fund for the EU.

Investments:

Brazil was the No.5 destination of

FDI in 2011, the largest target in Latin America, and the No. 1 destination for Chinese investments in 2010. São Paulo ranked fourth among the top ten cities worldwide that received most foreign investments.

illustrates Brazil’s desire to strengthen regional cooperation and use South America as a platform for economic development and a sphere of political influence, allowing Brazil to play a greater international role. For 95% of Brazilian diplomats, Argentina, which Dilma Rousseff visited on her first Presidential trip, is a country of vital interest to Brazil. 78% of Brazilian diplomats consider Mercosur, “the engine of South America”, to be beneficial to Brazil.

Immigration:

Brazil has become an attractive

destination in the hemisphere, receiving twice as many international migrants in 2010 as in 2000.

Itaipu:

Brazil invests in renewable energies. In

2011, Brazil was the No. 10 investor in clean energy and recorded the third-largest installed capacity growth. Hydropower represents 86.3% of Brazil’s power gener-

Soy: Brazil significantly increased its participation in

ation. Itaipu is the second largest dam worldwide, after

worldwide trade. China, which imports soy and iron

China’s Three Gorges, and Brazil’s Belo Monte dam will rank third.

Dialogue | Winter 2013

Iran: Lula’s government strongly supported Iran’s right to a civilian nuclear program. Brazil, Iran and Turkey signed an agreement in 2010, proposing an alternative to UN sanctions.

andmass:

the national anthem depicts

Brazil as a giant: its landmass (three times

Argentina’s) and population (half of South Americans) place it as fifth worldwide.

Leader:

Representing 60% of South America’s

GDP, Brazil’s GDP is double Mexico’s and six times Argentina’s; who respectively stand as the 14th and 27th economies worldwide. Latin Americans, particularly in Mercosur, consider Brazil the “friendliest” country of the region and that with “most leadership”, ahead of the US and Venezuela.

Lula: Brazil’s former President, the most successful of his time according to Time Magazine, became the emblematic figure of a transformed Brazil.

85%

of Brazilian diplomats think Bra-

zil has a more significant international role than ten years ago and 91% believe it should have a stronger international presence in the future. Antonio Patriota, current Brazilian Minister of Foreign Affairs, said: “to talk about the BRICS is to talk in superlatives”; to talk about Brazil is to discuss the giant whose future mirrors its greatness.

MATHILDE CHATIN is a PhD Candidate at King’s College London Brazil Institute

Dialogue | Winter 2013

President’s message Over the past term the KCL Politics Society has continued moving ever forward with an increasing ambition to innovatively inform and engage our members in political affairs. While the first half of autumn highlighted a very distinctive period in the history of our society, the remaining was a testimony of our commitment to our principles and objectives.

We kicked off the year with an active presence in the KCLSU Freshers’ Fair; we found it incredibly motivating to meet so many students from a wide variety of backgrounds and disciplines who were keen to get involved. The increasing interest in the KCL Politics Society was then reflected by the presence of over 200 people in a packed lecture theatre for our opening event.

It was also during this time that we announced an exclusive pre-premier of the critically acclaimed film ‘Grassroots’; a political comedy on U.S. politics, at London’s Haymarket Theatre. The screening was then followed by a discussion with the film’s director and political experts. We are proud to say that this event was the first of its kind by a student-led political society in London. It was an exciting way to bring politics out of its abstract context and engage our members with political affairs in an entertaining manner. We have since continued our mission with a

41 00

commitment to our original objectives and organized a series of conferences and workshops that have covered a diverse range of topics with experts ranging from academics and journalists to senior diplomats and attracted a significant group of students.

Consequently, it is fair to say that the past autumn has been a great success for the Society. Not only have we met all our objectives, but we did so with your active support for every one of our projects. Therefore it should come as no surprise that the Society’s membership has already increased six fold. In addition to this, our internationally acclaimed journal, Dialogue, has proven to be very successful with readership spanning 13 different countries and 5 continents. It is with your support that we are confident of the Society’s future, and we look forward to your continued engagement. Thank you!

Ramtin Hajimonshi KCL Politics Society President

Winter 2013 | Dialogue Winter 2012 | Dia-

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Among the BRICS: equals Russia, above India (BB-), below China (AA-) and South Africa (BBB+). Graça Foster, CEO of Petrobras, ranked 20th in Forbes “World’s 100 Most Powerful Women” and third in Latin America (after Dilma Rousseff and Cristina Kirchner). Forbes (2012) “World’s Biggest Public Companies”. Behind China and the US, overtaking Japan. Jornal do Brasil (2012) “Brasil é 3° no ranking de vendas de carros; China é líder”.

The European External Service: The EU’s ”telephone number” in the making? www.globalpublicsquareblog.com/nov1/europé-municipalication-steps/ INSIDE: a modern greek tragedy? http://blogs.r.ftdata.co.uk/gavyndavies/files/2012/05/143777409.jpg Italy’s Political Elites: Out with the old, in with the old. http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de http://www.thefrontpage.it Russia—Reform of Revert http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2012/03/27/vtb-in-talks-to-buy-ingosstrakh-stake/#axzz2EH7hSTyt

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