Fayetteville NC Real Estate
Market Report For the period ending July 31, 2010
Š 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Executive Summary The Fayetteville, NC real estate market has slowed considerably from the heights of the market in 2006 and 2007. Still, both existing homes and newly constructed homes continue to sell, albeit at a slower rate. From January 1 to July 31 of this year, 2,006 existing homes have been sold. That represents a drop of about 42% from the high of 3,464 houses sold in the year 2006 for the same period. However, the drop in sales from last year, 2009, is only about 6%, an indication that the market is relatively stable. For the same period, January 1 through July 31, 1,162 newly constructed homes have been sold this year. That is a drop of 31% from the market high in 2006 and a drop of 9.5% from last year. Finally, the absorption rate trend seems to show some improvement, however small. It is not unusual for homes to sell more quickly at this time of the year; traditionally, the summer months are a time for many military families to move into and out of the area. Š 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Existing Home Sales for the period Jan 1-Jul 31 each year 2000 thru 2010
3500
3464 3034
3000 2730
2871
2881
2500 2130
2000
1923 1553
1500
2006
1700
1322 1000 500 0 2000
Š 2010 Altagracia, LLC
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
New Construction Home Sales for the period Jan 1-Jul 31 each year 2000 thru 2010
1800 1681
1600 1412
1400
1488 1398 1218
1200 1000
1162
1003 860
800 606
600
670
495 400 200 0 2000
Š 2010 Altagracia, LLC
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Market Absorption Rates Supply and Demand
Absorption rate is a measure of the inventory of homes for sale in the market. It is expressed by how many months it will take to sell, or “absorb” the homes currently for sale. Here’s a short example (courtesy of Zan Monroe, Senior Instructor, Council of Residential Specialists): “If 12 homes sold in the last 12 months, that means the market will absorb 1 house per month, on average. If there are 10 homes currently on the market, there is a 10 month supply.”
© 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Market Absorption Rates Supply and Demand
The National Association of Realtors® considers that a 6 month supply of homes is a “balanced” market. If there is more than a 6 months supply of homes for sale, it is a buyers market because there are more homes available then there are buyers for them. If there is less than 6 months supply of homes, it is a sellers market. © 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Absorption Rates Over Time
Existing Homes – All of the Fayetteville NC Market
Period Ending July 31, 2010
Existing Homes Fayetteville Region
Past 12 Months
Past 6 Months
Past 3 Months
Price Range
Avg Homes Sales per # Active Monthly Sold Month Listings Supply
Avg Homes Sales per # Active Monthly Sold Month Listings Supply
Avg Homes Sales per # Active Monthly Sold Month Listings Supply
< $100,000
1324
110.33
865
7.84
681
113.50
865
7.62
335
111.67
865
7.75
$100,000 - $149,999
1157
96.42
880
9.13
628
104.67
880
8.41
361
120.33
880
7.31
$150,000 - $199,999
680
56.67
650
11.47
391
65.17
650
9.97
224
74.67
650
8.71
$200,000 - $249,999
240
20.00
328
16.40
126
21.00
328
15.62
74
24.67
328
13.30
$250,000 -$299,999
158
13.17
226
17.16
99
16.50
226
13.70
66
22.00
226
10.27
$300,000 - 499,999
138
11.50
275
23.91
82
13.67
275
20.12
50
16.67
275
16.50
$500,000 - and up
14
1.17
94
80.57
10
1.67
94
56.40
6
2.00
94
47.00
Data provided by Fayetteville Regional Association of Realtors©. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
© 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Absorption Rates Over Time
Existing Homes â&#x20AC;&#x201C; All of the Fayetteville NC Market
M o n t h s
80 70 60 50
Past 12 Months
40
S u p p l y
Past 6 Months
30
Past 3 Months
20
Balanced Market 6 months
10 0
< $100,000
$100,000 $149,999
$150,000 $199,999
$200,000 $249,999
$250,000 $299,999
$300,000 499,999
$500,000 and up
Absorption rates for the past 3 months are lower than those for the past 6 or 12 months, meaning that homes are selling faster. That is not unusual, as summer is stronger for sales in this area. In every price range, however, it is still a buyers market, as there is more inventory available than the market requires. Š 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Absorption Rates Over Time
New Construction– All of the Fayetteville NC Market Period Ending July 31, 2010
New Construction Fayetteville Region
Past 12 Months
Past 6 Months
Past 3 Months
Price Range
Avg Homes Sales per # Active Monthly Sold Month Listings Supply
Avg Homes Sales per # Active Monthly Sold Month Listings Supply
Avg Homes Sales per # Active Monthly Sold Month Listings Supply
< $100,000
0
0.00
0
$100,000 - $149,999
276
23.00
180
$150,000 - $199,999
945
78.75
$200,000 - $249,999
623
$250,000 -$299,999 $300,000 - 499,999 $500,000 - and up
n/a
0
0.00
0
7.83
144
24.00
180
554
7.03
496
82.67
51.92
358
6.90
341
179
14.92
129
8.65
117
9.75
95
8
0.67
11
n/a
0
0.00
0
7.50
80
26.67
180
6.75
554
6.70
264
88.00
554
6.30
56.83
358
6.30
203
67.67
358
5.29
112
18.67
129
6.91
57
19.00
129
6.79
9.74
59
9.83
95
9.66
39
13.00
95
7.31
16.50
4
0.67
11
16.50
2
0.67
11
16.50
Data provided by Fayetteville Regional Association of Realtors©. Information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.
© 2010 Altagracia, LLC
n/a
Absorption Rates Over Time
New Constructionâ&#x20AC;&#x201C; All of the Fayetteville NC Market
M o n t h s
S u p p l y
18 16
Past 12 Months
14
Past 6 Months
12
Past 3 Months
10
Balanced Market 6 months
8 6 4 2 0 $100,000 $149,999
$150,000 $199,999
$200,000 $249,999
$250,000 $299,999
$300,000 499,999
$500,000 - and up
Absorption rates for new construction for the past 3 months are generally lower than those for the past 6 or 12 months, meaning that homes are selling faster. The new construction market is very close to balanced in most price ranges. Builders are careful to not over-build, and have offered many incentives to buyers. Š 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Comparison
Existing Home Sales and New Construction Sales
Period Ending July 31, 2010
Existing Homes Fayetteville Region
Price Range
Past 12 Months
Homes Sold
Avg Sales per Month
Period Ending July 31, 2010
New Construction Fayetteville Region
# Active Listings
Monthly Supply
Price Range
Past 12 Months
Homes Sold
Avg Sales per Month
# Active Listings
Monthly Supply
$150,000 - $199,999
680
56.67
650
11.47
$150,000 - $199,999
945
78.75
554
7.03
$200,000 - $249,999
240
20.00
328
16.40
$200,000 - $249,999
623
51.92
358
6.90
$250,000 -$299,999
158
13.17
226
17.16
$250,000 -$299,999
179
14.92
129
8.65
In several price ranges, newly constructed homes are selling more than existing homes. Buyers are demonstrating that they favor the “new” factor and the amenities offered in many newly constructed homes. This puts additional pressure on home sellers to price their home competitively and to ensure their home is in top condition for sale.
© 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Absorption Rates Sample Neighborhoods
Absorption rates can be calculated for any neighborhood, and are the most accurate indicator of how to price a home for sale or purchase. For a home to be sold within a certain time period, it must be priced at the front of the market, given its location and condition.
The following 3 pages show absorption rates for 3 sample areas or neighborhoods: the Terry Sanford School District, zip code 28303, and Haymount. If you want to know the absorption rates for your particular neighborhood, send an email to jumperdj@earthlink.net or call Julissa Jumper at (910) 644-0303.
Š 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Absorption Rates
Existing Homes – Terry Sanford School District
Period Ending July 31, 2010
Terry Sanford School District
Price Range
Past 12 Months
Homes Sold
Avg Sales per Month
Past 6 Months
# Active Monthly Homes Listings Supply Sold
Avg Sales per Month
Past 3 Months
# Active Monthly Homes Listings Supply Sold
Avg Sales per Month
# Active Monthly Listings Supply
< $100,000
63
5.25
42
8.00
32
5.33
42
7.88
11
3.67
42
11.45
$100,000 - $149,999
52
4.33
32
7.38
27
4.50
32
7.11
16
5.33
32
6.00
$150,000 - $199,999
57
4.75
46
9.68
32
5.33
46
8.63
17
5.67
46
8.12
$200,000 - $249,999
35
2.92
28
9.60
16
2.67
28
10.50
11
3.67
28
7.64
$250,000 -$299,999
21
1.75
24
13.71
13
2.17
24
11.08
10
3.33
24
7.20
$300,000 - 499,999
22
1.83
38
20.73
12
2.00
38
19.00
6
2.00
38
19.00
$500,000 - and up
7
0.58
29
49.71
4
0.67
29
43.50
3
1.00
29
29.00
© 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Absorption Rates
Existing Homes â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Zip Code 28303
Period Ending July 31, 2010
Zip Code 28303
Price Range < $100,000
Past 12 Months
Homes Sold
Avg Sales per Month
Past 6 Months
# Active Monthly Homes Listings Supply Sold
Avg Sales per Month
Past 3 Months
# Active Monthly Homes Listings Supply Sold
Avg Sales per Month
# Active Monthly Listings Supply
102
8.50
75
8.82
50
8.33
75
9.00
26
8.67
75
8.65
$100,000 - $149,999
71
5.92
77
13.01
39
6.50
77
11.85
24
8.00
77
9.63
$150,000 - $199,999
33
2.75
38
13.82
18
3.00
38
12.67
9
3.00
38
12.67
$200,000 - $249,999
18
1.50
8
5.33
7
1.17
8
6.86
4
1.33
8
6.00
$250,000 -$299,999
7
0.58
11
18.86
6
1.00
11
11.00
5
1.67
11
6.60
$300,000 - 499,999
6
0.50
12
24.00
4
0.67
12
18.00
4
1.33
12
9.00
$500,000 - and up
3
0.25
11
44.00
1
0.17
11
66.00
1
0.33
11
33.00
Š 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Absorption Rates Existing Homes â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Haymount
Period Ending July 31, 2010
Neighborhood Haymount
Price Range < $100,000
Past 12 Months
Homes Sold
Avg Sales per Month
Past 6 Months
# Active Monthly Homes Listings Supply Sold
Avg Sales per Month
Past 3 Months
# Active Monthly Homes Listings Supply Sold
Avg Sales per Month
# Active Monthly Listings Supply
8
0.67
5
7.50
5
0.83
5
6.00
2
0.67
5
7.50
$100,000 - $149,999
17
1.42
12
8.47
8
1.33
12
9.00
5
1.67
12
7.20
$150,000 - $199,999
25
2.08
22
10.56
12
2.00
22
11.00
6
2.00
22
11.00
$200,000 - $249,999
11
0.92
13
14.18
6
1.00
13
13.00
5
1.67
13
7.80
$250,000 -$299,999
9
0.75
12
16.00
6
1.00
12
12.00
4
1.33
12
9.00
$300,000 - 499,999
6
0.50
11
22.00
5
0.83
11
13.20
1
0.33
11
33.00
$500,000 - and up
3
0.25
9
36.00
2
0.33
9
27.00
1
0.33
9
27.00
Š 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Summary There are far more houses for sale in the Fayetteville, NC real estate market than will be able to sell in the next 6 month period. The implications of that for sellers is that they must maintain, price, and market their home at the very front of the market if they have a realistic chance of selling it within their time frame. The task is made more difficult because of the competition from new construction homes, many offered with builder incentives. That reality is tempered by the fact that real estate sales are very localâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;some homes in popular neighborhoods continue to sell at a favorable pace. Sellers should check with their real estate agent to determine how their home compares to others, and what the absorption rates are for homes similar to theirs. For buyers, the opposite is true. There is an incredible selection of homes available right now, mortgage rates are vey low, and it is an ideal time to purchase a home. A note of caution, howeverâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;homes are not losing value and a buyer should not expect to purchase a home for much less than it is worth. Many sellers will opt to put their homes on the rental market instead of selling if their home does not sell in a reasonable amount of time. Š 2010 Altagracia, LLC
Fayetteville NC Real Estate
If you have questions about this report, or want to know more information, please call Julissa Jumper at (910) 644-0303. The Julissa Jumper Real Estate Team Keller Williams Realty 639 Executive Place Suite 100 Fayetteville, NC 28305
Š 2010 Altagracia, LLC