OCTOBER, 2013 • ChamberLink
11
100 House seats on ballots, but how many truly contested? By Bob Gibson Most Virginians have no idea that all 100 seats for the House of Delegates are on Nov. 5 ballots all across the state. That probably suits current delegates, most of whom are expected to cruise to easy re-election, just fine. Thanks largely to partisan redistricting two years ago, most of the 32 seats occupied by Democrats are safe for them and the great majority of the other 68 seats are safe for Republicans. In 45 of the 100 House districts, there is no contest on the ballot. In effect, 29 Republicans and 16 Democrats already have House seats in their back pockets with no campaigning needed. House Speaker William Howell, R-Fredericksburg, faces no Nov. 5 opponent, having easily survived a spring primary challenge. The same is true for Del. Robert D. Orrock, R-Caroline County. Del. David Toscano, D-Charlottesville, and Del. Rob Bell, R-Albemarle County, face no opponent as incumbents given another two years without even a token challenge. In the other 55 districts, there are probably 10 or fewer in which voters have both a choice and the chance of a close enough race that polling might show a contest as tight as 55 percent to 45 percent. Most of those few non-landslide contests are in Northern Virginia or the Hampton Roads - Virginia Beach region, according to Democrats and Republicans watching the races closely. Other races in Danville, Hillsville to Marion, Giles to Blacksburg, Lynchburg and Williamsburg are worth watching, but experts in both parties predict low turnout and probably as few as a net gain of three or fewer seats by the party-out-of-power: the Democrats. Turnout predictions range from low (as in 40 percent of registered Virginia voters) to lower. Most Virginians are unlikely to vote on Nov. 5, even though the media is saturated with news and advertising about a highly contentious governor’s race. If Democrats gain more than a few seats, Republicans say they will be surprised. “The story this year is just how much went unopposed on both sides,” said Jeff Ryer, a strategist for legislative Republicans. “There are not a lot of races in play. We are headed for a turnout that could be the lowest since the Voting Rights Act [of 1965].” Mr. Toscano said voter turnout may be low and Democrats’ chances “will depend a lot on turnout. I think it’s going to be in the 40 - 42 percent range.” “We are fielding 37 challengers to Republicans or in open-seat races,” said Mr. Toscano, the House Minority Leader. He added that Democrats “start with the principle of fielding great candidates and are working hard to gain seats every two years.” Currently, Republican delegates hold seats in 19 districts that were carried by President Obama, thus giving Democrats places to pick up seats if enough Democratic voters from presidential elections are motivated to vote in a gubernatorial year. However, Republican incumbents hold a fund-raising advantage over their challengers as of the Sept. 16 financial filing deadline and have only a handful to 10 races to worry about serious challenges with plenty of money to defend against them. Northern Virginia Republican Dels. Tom Rust of Herndon, David Ramadan of Loudoun County and Barbara Comstock of McLean face Democratic challengers in districts that are not reliably Republican. Mr. Rust and Ms. Comstock especially enjoy significant funding advantages. Mr. Ramadan may be the most vulnerable Republican incumbent. Democrats Jennifer Boysko of Herndon, John Bell of Loudoun County and Kathleen Murphy of McLean are given a chance of defeating the Republican incumbents in those tightly contested Northern Virginia districts. Other races that could be somewhat close include several in Prince William County. Del. Mark Dudenhefer, R-Stafford, is being challenged by Democrat Michael T. Futrell of Woodbridge in a new House district that has more Prince William voters than Stafford voters. Democrats are starting below their historic current low total of 32 seats, however. They have given a district in Southwest Virginia to Republicans in the uncontested turnover of the seat of retiring longtime Del. Joseph Johnson, D-Abingdon. GOP newcomer Ben Chafin will be elected to Johnson’s seat in a GOP-trending district without a challenge, placing Democrats down one seat to start at 31. Del. Rob Bell of Albemarle noted that, barring a late runaway win by one of the candidates
for governor, the historical trend would be for a net gain of fewer than five House seats to switch from one party to the other. “Usually there’s a swing of a few seats,” he said. Republicans picked up an unusually high net of seven seats in 2009 when Gov. Bob McDonnell led the GOP ticket with an 18-point landslide victory over state Sen. Creigh Deeds, D-Bath County. Barring a blowout win for one of the candidates for governor, Virginians are likely to see a modest few seats in the House of Delegates shift from one party to the other. That is one measure of how strong the power of redistricting can be in creating one-party control of a vast majority of the districts. Candidates on both sides of the aisle have raised ethics reform as a major issue for the 2014 session of the General Assembly. Bills are being introduced to limit the size of gifts and increase reporting requirements in a state that has among the nation’s most lax rules governing gifts to elected officials and their families. Current Virginia law places no limit on the value of reportable gifts that elected officials can receive and does not require disclosure of gifts to family members. Restrictions on the amount of gifts that an elected official or immediate family member could receive, tightened reporting requirements and proposals to establish an independent ethics commission are being discussed as possible ethics reforms. What remains unclear is whether ethics reform can be a set of issues that drives voters to the polls on Nov. 5 and whether they provide a significant advantage to one political party’s candidates. It appears clear that the gubernatorial contest at the top of the ballot is increasingly marked by sharply personal negative advertising attacks that may blunt turnout. Bob Gibson is executive director of University of Virginia’s Sorensen Institute for Political Leadership. He served as a reporter and editor with The Daily Progress of Charlottesville from 1976-2008, where he covered local and state government and politics.