National Economic Indicators
National Economic Indicators CONTENTS Page
GDP
Table: Real Gross Domestic Product ............................3 Real Gross Domestic Product.........................................4
Households Retail Sales ....................................................................5 Personal Income and Expenditures ................................6 Personal Saving ............................................................7 Sales of Automobiles and Light Trucks ...........................8 Single-Family Home Sales ....................................... 9, 10 Residential Single-Family Building Permits ...................11 Private Single-Family Housing Starts............................12
Investment Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment ..........................13 Real Investment in Equipment and Software ................14 Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures ...............15 Real Private Construction Put in Place .........................16
Trade Balance of International Trade ......................................17
Manufacturing Industrial Production Index, Manufacturing ...................18 Capacity Utilization Rate, Manufacturing ......................19 ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index ...............................20 Table: ISM Business Survey Indexes ..........................21 Manufacturers' New Orders ..........................................22 Core Capital Goods ......................................................23 Inventory/Sales Ratios ..................................................24
Labor Market
Page
Nonfarm Payroll Employment ................................. 25, 26 Civilian Unemployment Rate ........................................ 27 Civilian Labor Force ..................................................... 28 Aggregate Weekly Hours Index .................................... 29 Average Hourly Earnings ............................................. 30 Employment Cost Indexes ........................................... 31 Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business.......................... 32 Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business ............................. 33
Inflation Table: Gauges of Inflation ........................................... 34 Expenditure Price Indexes ..................................... 35, 36 Consumer Price Indexes .............................................. 37 Producer Price Indexes ................................................ 38 Commodity Price Indexes ............................................ 39 Crude Oil Prices ..................................................... 40, 41 TIPS Inflation Compensation ........................................ 42
Monetary Policy Monetary Policy Instruments ........................................ 43 Real Federal Funds Rate ............................................. 44 Expected Federal Funds Rate ...................................... 45 Federal Reserve System Assets .................................. 46 Monetary Base ............................................................. 47 M2 ................................................................................ 48
Financial Markets Money Market Rates .................................................... 49 Capital Market Rates .................................................... 50 Treasury Yield Curve ................................................... 51 Risk Premium ............................................................... 52 Exchange Rate ............................................................ 53
Real Gross Domestic Product 2009
2008 Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS QUARTER AT COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE [Percent]:
Gross Domestic Product
1.5
-2.7
-5.4
-6.4
-0.7
0.1
-3.5
-3.1
0.6
-0.9
1.4 14.5 -5.0
-6.1 -0.1 -9.4
-19.5 -7.2 -25.9
-39.2 -43.6 -36.4
-9.6 -17.3 -4.9
Residential Fixed Investment
-15.8
-15.9
-23.2
-38.2
-23.3
Exports of Goods & Services Imports of Goods & Services
12.1 -5.0
-3.6 -2.2
-19.5 -16.7
-29.9 -36.4
-4.1 -14.7
3.6
4.8
1.2
-2.6
6.7
0.3
-2.7
-4.9
-6.4
-0.9
Personal Consumption Expenditures Nonresidential Fixed Investment Structures Equipment & Software
Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers
LEVEL IN QUARTER AT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE [Billions of Chained (2005) Dollars]:
Change in Private Inventories Net Exports of Goods & Services
-37.1
-29.7
-37.4
-113.9 -160.2
-476.0 -479.2 -470.9
-386.5 -330.4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
3
Real Gross Domestic Product 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7
Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7
Q2 -0.7%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
4
Retail Sales 10
Year over Year % Change
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
Aug. -5.3%
-6 -8 -10 -12 2003
-4 -6
Month over Month % Change Jun Jul Aug Total 0.9 -0.2 2.7 x Gasoline 0.4 -0.1 2.4
2004
2005
-8 -10
2006
2007
2008
2009
-12 2010
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
5
Personal Income & Expenditures 6
Year over Year % Change
6 Month over Month % Change
5 Income Expenditures
4
Jun -1.7 0.2
Jul 0.1 0.2
5
Aug -0.2 0.9
4
3
3
2
2
1
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Real Personal Income
1
0
0 Aug.
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-4 2010
Notes: December 2004 real personal income figure excludes the Microsoft dividend.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
6
Personal Saving Rate 7
Percent of disposable personal income
7
6
6
5
5
4
4 Aug. 3.0%
3
3
2
2
1
1
0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0 2010
Notes: December 2004 personal saving rate excludes Microsoft dividend.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
7
Sales of Automobiles & Light Trucks 22
Millions of Vehicles
22 20
20 18
Autos and Light Trucks
Average Annual Auto & Light Truck Sales Rate: 1999 through 2005
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
Light Trucks Sep. 9.2 mil.
10 8
8 Autos
6
6 4 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
4 2011
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
8
Existing Single-Family Home Sales 6.5
Millions of Homes
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
Aug. 4.5 mil.
4.5
4.0
4.0 Average Annual Existing Home Sales: 1990 through 1999
3.5 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
3.5 2010
Source: National Association of Realtors/Haver Analytics
9
New Single-Family Home Sales 1.4
Millions of Homes
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
Average Annual New Home Sales: 1990 through 1999
0.7
0.6
0.6 Aug. 0.43 mil.
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0.2 2010
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
10
Residential Single-Family Building Permits 2.0
Millions of Permits
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2 Average Annual Building Permits: 1990 through 1999
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
Aug. 0.46 mil.
0.4 0.2 2003
0.6 0.4
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0.2 2010
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
11
Private Single-Family Housing Starts 2.0
Millions of Starts
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6
1.6
1.4
1.4
1.2
1.2
Average Annual Housing Starts: 1990 through 1999
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6 Aug. 0.48 mil.
0.4 0.2 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0.4
0.2 2010
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
12
Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment 20
% Change from previous quarter at annual rate
20
15
15
10
10
5
Q2 -9.6%
0 -5
5 0 -5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
-35
-35
-40
-40 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
13
Real Investment in Equipment & Software 20
% Change from previous quarter at annual rate
20
15
15
10
10
5
Q2 -4.9%
0 -5
5 0 -5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
-35
-35
-40
-40 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
14
Real Investment in Nonresidential Structures 30
% Change from previous quarter at annual rate
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
5
Q2 -17.3%
0 -5
5 0 -5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30
-35
-35
-40
-40
-45
-45 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
15
Real Private Nonresidential Construction Put In Place 380
Billions of 2005$, deflated using the price index for private fixed investment in structures
380
360
360 Aug.
340
340
320
320
300
300
280
280 Twelve-Month Moving Average
260
240 2003
260
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
240 2010
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
16
Balance of International Trade -20
Current $, Billions
-20
-25
-25
-30
-30 July -$32.0 bil.
-35 Twelve-Month Moving Average
-40
-35 -40
-45
-45
-50
-50
-55
-55
-60
-60
-65
-65
-70 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-70 2010
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
17
Industrial Production Index: Manufacturing 115
2002 = 100
115
110
110
105
105
100
100 Aug. 96.3
95
90 2003
95
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
90 2010
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
18
Capacity Utilization Rate: Manufacturing 82
Percent
82
80
80
78
78
76
76
74
74
72
72
70
70
68
Aug. 66.6%
66 64 2003
68 66
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
64 2010
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
19
ISM: Purchasing Managers Index 65
Diffusion Index, %
65
60
60
55
Sep. 52.6
55
50
50
45
45
40
40
35
35
30 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
30 2010
Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
20
ISM: Business Survey Indexes MANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
NONMANUFACTURING BUSINESS:
Aug.
Sep.
Aug.
Sep.
Purchasing Managers Index
52.9
52.6
NonManufacturing Index 48.4
50.9
Production
61.9
55.7
Business Activity
51.3
55.1
New Orders
64.9
60.8
New Orders
49.9
54.2
Employment
46.4
46.2
Employment
43.5
44.3
Supplier Deliveries
57.1
58.0
Supplier Deliveries
49.0
50.0
Inventories
34.4
42.5
Inventories
43.0
47.5
Prices
65.0
63.5
Prices
63.1
48.8
Backlog of Orders
52.5
53.5
Backlog of Orders
41.0
51.5
New Export Orders
55.5
55.0
New Export Orders
54.0
48.5
Imports
49.5
52.0
Imports
49.0
51.5
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Numbers above 50 percent indicate a preponderance of expanding firm activity.
Source: Institute for Supply Management/Haver Analytics
21
Manufacturers’ New Orders 480
Current $, Billions
480
460
460
440
440
420
420
400
400
380
380 Aug.
360
Twelve-Month Moving Average
360
340
340
320
320
300 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
300 2010
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
22
Core Capital Goods 70
Current $, Billions
70 New Orders
65
65
60
60 Shipments
55
55 Aug.
50
50
45 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
45 2010
Notes: Core capital goods are nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft.
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
23
Business Inventory – Sales Ratio 1.70
Percent
1.70
1.65
1.65 Retailers
1.60
1.60
1.55
1.55
1.50
1.50
1.45
1.45 July
1.40 1.35
1.40 1.35
Total Business
1.30
1.30
1.25
1.25
1.20
1.20 Manufacturers
1.15 1.10 2003
2004
2005
1.15 2006
2007
2008
2009
1.10 2010
Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics
24
Nonfarm Payroll Employment 139
Millions of persons
139
138
138
137
137
136
136
135
135
134
134
133
133
132
132 Sep. 130.947 mil.
131 130 129 2003
131 130
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
129 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
25
Nonfarm Payroll Employment 300
Quarterly average of monthly changes, Thousands of persons
300
200
200
100
100 Q3 Avg.
0
0
-100
-100
-200
-200
-300
-300
-400
-400
-500 -600 -700
Monthly Change Sep -263 Aug -201 Jul -304 Jun -463 May -303
-500 -600 -700 -800
-800 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
26
Civilian Unemployment Rate 10.5
Percent
10.5 10.0
10.0 Sep. 9.8%
9.5
9.5
9.0
9.0
8.5
8.5 FOMC Forecast
8.0
8.0
7.5
7.5
7.0
7.0
6.5
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
4.0 2012
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the June 23-24 meeting.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
27
Civilian Labor Force Ratios 67
Percent of Population
67 Labor Force
66
66
65
65 64
64 Employed
63
63 Sep.
62
62
61
61
60
60
59
59
58 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
58 2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
28
Aggregate Weekly Hours Index 110
Index, 2002 = 100
110
108
108
106
106
104
104 Quarterly Average
102
102
100
100 Sep.
98
98 96 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
96 2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
29
Average Hourly Earnings 5.0
Year over Year % Change
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0 Sep. 2.5%
2.5
Monthly % Change Sep 0.1 Aug 0.4 Jul 0.3 Jun 0.1
2.0 1.5 1.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2011
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
30
Employment Cost Index 8
Year over Year % Change
8 Q2 2009 YoY % Change
Benefits Cost
7
Total Comp. 1.8% Benefits Cost 1.8% Wages & Salaries 1.8%
7
6
6
5
5
4
Total Compensation
4 3
3 Wages and Salaries
2 1 2003
Q2
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2 1 2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
31
Labor Productivity, Nonfarm Business 6.0
Year over Year % Change
6.0 Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Q2 09 -6.6 % Q1 09 -0.3 % Q4 08 -0.8 % Q3 08 -0.1 %
5.0 4.0 3.0
5.0 4.0 3.0
Post-War Average Q2 1.9%
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-1.0 2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
32
Unit Labor Cost, Nonfarm Business 5.0
Year over Year % Change
5.0
Quarterly Change at Annual Rate Q2 09 -5.9 % Q1 09 -5.0 % Q4 08 2.0 % Q3 08 4.6 %
4.0 3.0
4.0 3.0
2.0
2.0 Alternate Series
1.0
1.0
0.0
Q2 -0.1%
-1.0
-1.2%
-2.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0.0
-1.0 -2.0 2010
Notes: Alternate series is derived from the Employment Cost Index.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
33
Gauges of Inflation Expenditure Price Indexes
[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
July Personal Consumption Expenditures................................................0.5 Core (excludes Food* and Energy)...............................................1.2
Consumer Price Indexes
Aug. 4.2 1.1
[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
July All Items.............................................................................................0.1 Core (excludes Food and Energy) ................................................1.1 Producer Price Indexes
Aug. 5.5 0.8
YoY % -1.5 1.4
[Percent Change from Previous Month at Annual Rate]:
July Finished Goods ............................................................................... -9.9 Core (excludes Food and Energy) .............................................. -1.4 Core Intermediate Goods ..................................................................2.8 Crude Goods ................................................................................. -42.3 Spot Commodity Price Index
YoY % -0.5 1.3
Aug. 23.1 2.1 7.2 56.6
YoY % -4.3 2.3 -8.2 -35.1
[Percent Change from Previous Month]:
Aug. CRB Spot Commodity Price Index ....................................................4.7
Sep. -0.3
YoY % -10.6
Notes: Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.
Source: BEA, BLS, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics
34
Overall Consumer Expenditure Price Index 5.0
Year over Year % Change
5.0
4.5
4.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
FOMC Forecast
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5 0.0
0.0 Aug. -0.5%
-0.5 -1.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
-0.5 2011
-1.0 2012
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the June 23-24 meeting.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
35
Core Consumer Expenditure Price Index 3.0
Year over Year % Change
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5 Aug. 1.3%
1.0
1.0
FOMC Forecast
0.5
0.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0.5
0.0 2012
Notes: FOMC forecast is the central tendency for Q4/Q4 percent changes, from the June 23-24 meeting. Core PCE Price Index includes expenditures on food services.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics
36
Consumer Price Indexes 6.0
Year over Year % Change
6.0
5.0 4.0
5.0 4.0
All Items
3.0
3.0
2.0
Aug. 1.4%
1.0
2.0 1.0
Core CPI
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0 -1.5%
-2.0 -3.0 2003
-2.0
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-3.0 2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
37
Producer Price Indexes 12
Year over Year % Change
12 10
10
8
8 All Finished Goods
6
6
4
4 Aug. 2.3%
2
2
Core Finished Goods
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4.3%
-6
-6 -8 2003
-4
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-8 2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics
38
Commodity Price Indexes 15
Year over Year % Change
Year over Year % Change PPI Core Intermediate Goods (Left Axis)
12 9
25 20 15
6
10
3
5
0
0
-3 -6 -9
Commodity Research Bureau Spot Commodity Price Index (Right Axis)
Sep. -10.6%
-5 -10 -15
Aug. -8.2%
-12
-20
-15
-25
-18
-30
-21 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-35 2010
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Commodity Research Bureau, Haver Analytics
39
Crude Oil Prices 150
Current Dollars / Barrel
150
140
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100
100 Futures Price
90 80
90 80
70
Oct. 2
70
60
60
50
50 Spot Price
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0 1990
0 1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Source: Wall Street Journal, New York Mercantile Exchange, Haver Analytics
40
Real Crude Oil Prices 130
2005 $ / Barrel
130
120
120
110
110
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
Aug.
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0 0 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Notes: Deflated using the Overall PCE Price Index.
Source: Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics
41
TIPS Inflation Compensation 4.5
Percent
4.0 3.5
4.5 4.0
5-Year 5 Years Ahead
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.0
Oct. 2
5-Year
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0
-1.5
-1.5
-2.0
-2.0
-2.5
-2.5
-3.0 2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-3.0 2010
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
42
Monetary Policy Instruments 7.0
Percent
6.5
7.0 Federal Funds Target Rate
6.5
6.0
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5 4.0
4.5
Discount Rate (discontinued)
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
Primary Credit Rate
2.5
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
Federal Funds Rate Target Range
0.5 0.0 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1.0 Oct. 2
0.5
0.0 2010
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
43
Real Federal Funds Rate 6.0
Percent, effective Fed funds rate - lagged year over year change in core PCE price index
6.0
5.0
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0 Oct.
-1.0 -2.0
-1.0 -2.0
-3.0 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
-3.0 2010
Notes: Most recent observation uses expected Fed funds rate as implied by Fed funds futures contracts.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
44
Expected Federal Funds Rate 0.75
Percent
0.75
September 8, 2009 October 2, 2009
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.25 Current Target Range for Federal Funds Rate
0.00
0.00 November 4
December 16
January 27
Notes: Derived from Fed funds futures contracts.
Source: Chicago Board of Trade
45
Federal Reserve System Assets 2600
$, Billions
2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400
TALF: $30 CPFF: $60
Discount Window: $34
Total: $2,045 Term Auction Facility: $234 AIG & Bear Stearns: $103
Term ABS Lending Facility (TALF): $43
Total: $2,179 Term Auction Facility: $178 AIG & Bear Stearns: $100
Currency Swaps: $76
Miscellaneous: $144
Miscellaneous: $137
CPFF: $42 Currency Swaps: $57 Discount Window: $28
Agency MBS: $692
1200 Agency MBS: $543
1000 800
Agency Debt: $130
Agency Debt: $109
600 400
Treasury Securities: $721
Treasury Securities: $766
8/12/2009
9/30/2009
200 0 Notes: CPFF is the Commercial Paper Funding Facility. Money Market Facility (AMLF) holdings were less than $1 billion on 8/12 & 9/30.
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
46
Monetary Base 1900
$ Billions
1900 Sep. 23
1800
1800
1700
1700
1600
1600
1500
1500
1400
1400
1300
1300
1200
1200
1100
1100
1000
1000
900
900
800
800
700 2006
2007
2008
2009
700 2010
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
47
M2 12
Year over Year % Change
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8 Aug. 7.8%
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0 2010
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
48
Money Market Rates 7.0
Percent
7.0 Primary Credit Rate
6.0
6.0
3-Month LIBOR Federal Funds Rate
5.0
5.0
4.0
4.0 3-Month T-Bill
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0 Oct. 2
0.0 2006
2007
2008
2009
0.0 2010
Source: Board of Governors, Financial Times, Haver Analytics
49
Capital Market Rates 10.5
Percent
10.5
9.5
9.5
8.5
8.5
7.5
Corporate BBB Bond Rate
30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate
7.5
6.5
6.5
5.5
5.5
4.5 3.5
Oct. 2 Corporate AAA Bond Rate
3.5 10-Yr. Treasury Bond Rate
2.5 1.5 2006
4.5
2007
2008
2.5
2009
1.5 2010
Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
50
Treasury Yield Curve 4.00
Percent
4.00 September 8, 2009 October 2, 2009
3.50
3.50
3.00
3.00
2.50
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00 6M
2 Yrs 3 Yrs
5 Yrs
10 Yrs
Time to Maturity
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
51
Risk Premium 8.00
Percent, Merrill Lynch Corporate BBB - 10 Yr. Treasury Yield
8.00
7.50
7.50
7.00
7.00
6.50
6.50
6.00
6.00
5.50
5.50
5.00
5.00
4.50
4.50
4.00
4.00
3.50
3.50
3.00
3.00
2.50
Oct. 2
10 Year Average Risk Premium
2.50
2.00
2.00
1.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
0.50 2006
2007
2008
2009
0.50 2010
Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors, Haver Analytics
52
Exchange Value of the US$ 135
Index: March 1973 = 100
135
125
125
115
115
105
105
95
95 Sep.
85
85
75 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
75
Notes: Measured as the real broad trade-weighted exchange value of the United States Dollar.
Source: Board of Governors/Haver Analytics
53