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November 2012/Kislev 5773
Israeli Elections
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In addition, Mr. Olmert faces another trial on allegations of bribery in the Holy Land apartment complex scandal in Jerusalem. 45 Seats? Seeing the handwriting on the wall, many Kadima MKs have been scrambling to join other parties in order to secure seats in the next Knesset. Avi Dichter left Kadima three months ago, and was immediately named Home Front Minister by Mr. Netanyahu. Mr. Dichter, a former director of the Shin Bet, just officially joined Likud.
He turned down an offer from Ms. Yechimovich to join Labor, with the understanding that if Labor was successful, he would be given the Defense portfolio. “The Likud is the only party that can guard Israel’s security, social, and economic interests,” he said. Arthur Finkelstein, the political advisor who took credit for suggesting the merger between Messrs Netanyahu and Lieberman, told journalists he believes the union could win as many as 45 seats in the next Knesset. In the one that just dissolved, the two parties together controlled 42 seats. The Jewish Educational Center
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“In the end, the people who supported Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu in the past will remain united. I expect them to receive another three to five seats precisely because it would be a unified right bloc,” he said, adding that “Israel is a country with a clear right-wing majority.” A Tie But the first poll taken after the announcement of the Netanyahu-Lieberman union did not bear him out. The poll, conducted by the Panels Politics Institute, showed, with the new unified party, Israeli voters would create a tie between the right-wing factions and the centrist-left blocs, which include Arab anti-Zionist parties. According to the poll, the joint Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu faction would win 33 seats; the joint National Union-Jewish Home list would get 13; Shas would receive nine seats; and United Torah Judaism would have five. On the other side of the aisle, Labor would get 27 seats; Yesh Atid would win 18; the Arab parties would have 10 seats; and Meretz would garner five. No Israeli government coalition has ever included the Arab parties, and most observers do not believe Ms. Yechimovich would want to be the first. 50 Seats? Some observers say the new Shas leader, Aryeh Deri—another ex-convict returning to politics—would happily join a left-wing coalition, if the rabbinic leaders guiding Shas would agree. Most observers say that will not happen. Neither Kadima nor Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s Independence Party (a breakaway from Labor) would pass the electoral threshold. The Jerusalem Post suggested that a coalition of Kadima and Mr. Lapid’s Yesh Atid led by Mr. Olmert could defeat Mr. Netanyahu, despite Mr. Olmert’s legal problems. The suggestion was ridiculed by the Likud. “The poll is just a preliminary one and future surveys may show different results,” said Arutz Sheva’s Elad Benari. Prior to Messrs Netanyahu and Lieberman’s announcement, Israeli media reported that the two conducted their own private polls which found that their union could give them as many as 50 seats.S.L.R.