Figure 49: Raw survey responses - banking section £ million, 2011 Customer deposits
Jersey United Kingdom Private non-dom Private not non-dom Corporate Guernsey & IoM
Interbank Inter-bank As a share deposits and Total liabilities As a share Up-streaming loans other
Customer loans
Other assets
Total
As a share
22,981 14,335 4,034 6,241 4,060 2,770
29% 18% 5% 8% 5% 3%
4,490 7,456 7,456 11,287
27,470 21,791 4,034 6,241 11,516 14,057
18% 14% 3% 4% 8% 9%
486 97,388 97,388 4,635
22 27 27 11
5,963 2,403 441 879 1,083 357
11,057 6,493 0 2 6,491 458
17,528 106,310 441 881 104,988 5,461
12% 70% 0% 1% 69% 4%
4,118
5%
9,750
13,867
9%
0
0
586
5,492
6,078
4%
Europe
13,837
17%
6,613
20,450
13%
8,663
11
597
1,602
10,873
7%
Rest of World
22,166
28%
31,872
54,038
36%
4,223
5
802
463
5,493
4%
Total
80,206
100%
71,467
151,673
100% 115,396
76
10,708
25,564
151,743
100%
Other offshore
Sources: Capital Economics’ survey 2012/13
This note explains the calculations made to estimate the level of banking activity generated by domestic Jersey and Guernsey based clients. Banking survey respondents reported a high proportion of deposits originating from Jersey, some £23 million of customer deposits. That is an implausibly high number given the size of the economy. Interviews with respondents revealed that much of this was likely to be business from clients across the world, conducted via Jersey based intermediaries. To give a more plausible estimate of the size domestic banking assets and liabilities, Jersey’s ratios of deposits and customer loan values to gross value added were restricted to the European Union average. (See Figure 50.) A significant amount of activity was also reported as originating in other Crown Dependencies, most of which again is activity directed through intermediaries. However, interviews also revealed that, in some cases, Guernsey residents are better off banking in Jersey. Therefore we treat some of the deposits and loans reported as originating in Guernsey as genuinely domestic to the Channel Islands. The same methodology is applied as for Jersey, except that Guernsey deposits and loans in Jersey are capped at 25 per cent of total calculated domestic banking assets.
Figure 50: Calculation of domestic banking demand in Jersey and Guernsey Jersey banks' balance sheets, £ million
Liabilities Private individuals
Assets
Corporates
Customer loans
EU average liability to GDP Estimated Jersey domestic demand
0.7 2,685
0.4 1,407
3 10,985
Estimated Guernsey domestic demand
1,417
-
5,798
354
-
796
Estimated Guernsey domestic deposits in Jersey
Source and notes: (a) Liability to GDP ratio calculated from data downloaded from Statistical Data Warehouse of the European Central Bank. (b) Jersey domestic demand calculated using Jersey GVA (2011) taken from States of Jersey website. (c) Guernsey domestic demand calculated using Guernsey GDP (2011) taken from States of Guernsey website. (d) 25 per cent of domestic Guernsey private domestic deposits assumed to be in Jersey for tax reasons.
The remainder of the deposits and loans that were reported in the survey as originating in Jersey and the Crown Dependencies were apportioned according to the geographical distribution of settlors in the trust industry. (See Figure 51.) 70