CAIR Issue No. 36 - December 2005 by Leah Dupuis

INTERVISTAS ’ CANADIAN AVIATION INTELLIGENCE REPORT

In this issue… Features Columns: • B747-8F vs. A380F (p.1) • Boeing’s New 747-8 (p.3) • Passenger Market Demand Data: Building Total Market Sizes (p.11) • Canada-U.S. Full Open Skies (p.13) • Cargo Capers (p.15) • U.S. – European Open Skies (p.17) • Airport Best Practices: GTAA Preparation for Pandemics (p.18) • Are You Prepared for a Potential Avian Flu Pandemic? (p.19)

Regular Reports: • Airline Data-Canada (p.4) • Airline Data-U.S. (p.5) • Airport Data (p.6) • Industry News (p.7) • Washington Report (p.20) • Ottawa Report (p.21) • InterVISTAS News (p.22)

B747-8F VS A380F December 2005

Robert Andriulaitis Director, Transportation & Logistics Studies

For some time now, Boeing’s 747 family of freighters has dominated the international air cargo market. With over 200 747 freighters in operation, these aircraft carry about half the world’s airfreight. A while back Airbus challenged Boeing’s supremacy in the large freighter category with the development of the 150-tonne capacity A380F to compete with the 113 tonne 747-400F. Boeing had been studying the market feasibility of a stretched 747 for a number of years, but turned its attention early in 2001 to the development of the Sonic Cruiser. Boeing also indicated it felt that Airbus had overestimated the demand for very large aircraft. With changes in the market since the Sonic Cruiser was first announced, Boeing focussed its attention back to the 747 in a big way, and has now responded with its new 140 tonne 747-8F. So how do the two freighters compare?

Capacity. The A380F offers 150 tonnes of payload and 938.4 cubic metres of space. While the 747-8F offers significantly more capacity than the 747-400F at 140 tonnes payload and 854.3 cubic metres of space, the A380F still provides 7% greater payload and 10% greater volume. Boeing has on occasion referred to the ability of its aircraft to handle “real world” densities (by implication suggesting Airbus aircraft do not); however, the 747-8F could only carry slightly more dense cargo than the A380F, at an average of 164 kg/m3 versus 160 kg/m3. It is doubtful that this will give it much of an advantage, so the A380 clearly offers greater cargo carrying capacity.

Range. Based on aircraft characteristics downloaded from the Airbus website, the A380F can fly about 10,400 to 10,500 km with a full payload, depending on engine choice. The 747-8F will have a maximum range of about 8,275 km. Clearly, the A380F has a significant advantage here. If we look at the ability to carry 140 tonnes (the 747-8F maximum), the difference is more pronounced, with the A380F being able to cover some 11,400 km. From a point such as Dubai, the 747-8F can reach all of Europe and Africa, as well as most of Asia. It cannot, however, reach the Americas. The A380F, on the other hand, can reach into North America as far as Washington, and can cover all of Asia and even virtually all of Australia (though the key communities on the southeast coast are just out of range). If the A380F were to be loaded with 113 tonnes (the maximum payload of today’s 747400F), it could reach any point other than southern California, Mexico and Central America, the western half of Great Circle Mapper South America and New Zealand. A clear edge to the A380F.

Economics of Operation. Here the data is murky. Boeing is claiming 20 percent lower trip costs, and 23% lower ton-mile costs than the A380. It attributes this to the fact that the empty weight of a 747-8F is 86 tonnes less than that of the A380F, which translates into less fuel required to move the airplane itself. Airbus has responded that the Boeing calculations are based on overstated weight and fuel burn numbers for the A380F. Some comments made with respect to the passenger version suggest the Boeing advantage may be closer to 12% on a trip cost basis. Nevertheless, it would seem that Boeing has a very important edge here.

Page 1 December 2005

B747-8F VS A380F – CON’T Cost. The A380F lists at about $282 million; the 747-8F at about $278 million. Not much to choose from here. Of course, the actual price can vary significantly from the list price, depending on the air carriers’ negotiating leverage and the aerospace manufacturers’ hunger for sales.

Airport Issues. Both aircraft will meet Stage 4 and QC2 noise requirements. (QC refers to Quota Count, in use at London airports for night flights.) Comparative emissions levels are hard to determine given the mixed signals on relative fuel burn. The 747-8F, though larger than the 747-400F, will operate at existing airports handling the 747-400. The A380, as has been widely noted, requires modifications at some airports in order to handle this very large aircraft. There have also been some concerns that wake turbulence from the A380 may require longer waits between take-offs. This could be an issue at congested airports – an ironic situation as one of the motivations for the A380 was to reduce congestion at hub airports.

Conclusions. At this early point in time, with few hard numbers on performance, it is difficult to say which aircraft is “better.” As well, which is “better” will vary by carrier, depending on its needs. So far, Cargolux has ordered 10 747-8Fs and Nippon Cargo Airlines has ordered 8. The A380F has been ordered by Emirates (2), FedEx (10), International Lease Finance Corporation (5) and UPS (10 firm and options for another 10). It is certain that both aircraft will become important fixtures in the international air cargo world.

Page 2 December 2005

BOEING’S NEW 747-8 12 December 2005

In November 2005, Boeing added a new member to the popular 747 family with the launch of the 7478 Intercontinental. Based on technology developed for the 787 Dreamliner, the 747-8 is marketed by Boeing as being quieter, more fuel efficient, and produces less emissions compared to other large passenger aircraft in the market. This column compares the 747-8 with other passenger aircraft in its class.

Aircraft Range and Seating Capacity. The 747-8 has one of the longest ranges of any large passenger aircraft in the market, along with the second greatest seating capacity.

Eugene Chu Project Analyst

Table 1 – Comparison of Aircraft Range and Seating Capacity Seating Capacity Manufacturer Model (three-class) Boeing

Airbus

Range (km)

747-8

450

14,800

747-400/747-400ER

416

13,450/14,200

777-200/200ER/200LR 777-300/300ER

305/301/301 368/365

9,650/14,300/17,450 11,000/14,600

A340-200/300/500/600

261/295/313/380

14,800/13,350/16,100/13,900

555

15,000

A380 Source: Boeing and Airbus website.

Operating Cost and Fuel Efficiency. Boeing estimates that the 747-8 will have equivalent trip costs as the smaller 747-400, but 8% lower seat-mile costs. The manufacturer also claims that the 747-8 will have 22% lower trip costs and 6% lower seat-mile costs compared to Airbus’ A380. In terms of fuel efficiency, Boeing states that the 747-8 is 16% and 14% more fuel efficient than the 747-400 and A380 respectively. Passenger Amenities. The SkyLoft area on the upper deck of the 747-8 Intercontinental gives air carriers the option of adding main-deck seating capacity or to create passenger amenities such as personal suites, a lounge or a business centre. This space could provide additional revenue opportunities for air carriers. Implications and Conclusions. The 747-8 is essentially a stretched 747-400 with 787 Dreamliner technology applied to it. This combination enables air carriers to use the 747-8 to serve ultra long-haul markets that are too small for the A380 but too large for the 787 or 777. Another advantage of the 747-8 is that the aircraft already fits most of today’s airport infrastructure. The 747-8 can be operated to all of the 210 airports currently served by the 747 family, using the same pilot type ratings, services and ground support equipment. This means that air carriers currently operating the 747-400 will be able to integrate the 747-8 into their fleet with minimal pilot training and related operational investments.

Page 3 December 2005

AIRLINE DATA – CANADA Traffic and Load Factors on Canada’s Major Air Carriers November 2005 Passenger Traffic

Air Carrier

Capacity

Revenue Passenger Kilometres

% Change over 2004

% Change from 2003

+9.6%

+3.1%

-0.7%

-6.1%

-3.7%

-5.4%

Jazz

+98.4%

+100.0%

International & Charter

+11.0%

+29.3%

OTHER CARRIERS: LOAD FACTORS

Air Canada1

+5.5%

CanJet: not reported

Domestic (Mainline)

WestJet

% Change from 2003

Change over 2004 +1.8 pts (to 76.4%)

Change from 2003 +7.2 pts (from 69.2%)

-13.2%

+0.9 pts

+9.2 pts

91.4%

65.0%

+2.5 pts

+12.2 pts

+16.0%

+7.7%

+6.3%

+2.2 pts

+6.3pts

+54.5%

+5.2%

+37.8%

+13.4 pts (to 71.9%)

+7.8 pts (from 64.1%)

Air Canada Domestic Mainline

Analysis: •

•

Load Factor

Available Seat Kilometres

Air Canada reported its 20th consecutive month of record system and domestic load factors in November 2005. Air Canada’s passenger traffic has increased by more than 5% since November 2004, led by the performance of its International and Charter services.

10% 5% 0% -5% Jazz data is not included in this graph

-10% -15% Nov- Dec Jan- Feb 04 05

Mar

Apr

Dom RPK

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dom ASK

Air Canada International 15%

•

Jazz traffic and capacity has continued its double-digit growth, due in large part to a shift in domestic capacity from Air Canada mainline to Jazz. WestJet’s passenger traffic continued its strong growth, up nearly 30% from 2004. Load factor also climbed over 13 pts during the same period.

10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Nov- Dec Jan04 05

Feb

Mar

Apr

Int'l RPK

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Int'l ASK

WestJet 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Nov- Dec 04

Jan- Feb 05

Mar

Apr

RPK

May

Jun

ASK

Air Canada consists of all Air Canada operations with the exception of Jazz. InterVISTAS’ Canadian Aviation Intelligence Report Page 4 December 2005 Copyright ©2005 InterVISTAS Consulting Inc., all rights reserved. 1

AIRLINE DATA – U.S. U.S. Airlines Release November 2005 Traffic Figures Traffic Data – November 2005 Airline

Load Factor

Traffic (RPMs – millions)

(ASMs – millions)

77.6%

10,828

13,945

!4.2 pts

!6.6%

!0.8%

72.7%

697

959

!5.6 pts

!25.7%

!16.0%

74.2%

428

577

!3.7 pts

"49.6%

"52.1%

78.7%

6,402

8,135

!1.7 pts

!9.2%

!6.9%

73.8%

9,078

12,302

!0.4 pts

"0.4%

"0.8%

81.9%

1,382

1,649

"1.9 pts

!23.5%

!26.4%

81.2%

5,474

6,743

!3.5 pts

"5.1%

"9.1%

70.9%

4,998

7,050

!3.7 pts

!16.4%

!7.5%

79.6%

8,913

11,160

!3.4 pts

!1.9 pts

"2.9%

75.2%

4,921

6,544

!1.1 pts

"6.0%

"7.4%

Notes:

1. 2.

Sources:

Carrier traffic reports.

Page 5 December 2005

Capacity

Mainline operations only. Load factor includes scheduled service only.

Summary of Total Year-Over-Year Passenger Traffic Performance at Selected Canadian Airports Edmonton

Ottawa

Winnipeg

Halifax

Victoria

Kelowna

Saskatoon

Regina

+6.2%

+2.9%

+6.6%

+8.2%

+8.6%

+3.3%

+1.1%

+5.4%

+0.8%

St. John’s +11.2%

+14.3%

+7.0%

+10.7%

-4.0%

+11.9%

+1.1%

+3.7%

-1.4%

+9.1%

+7.9%

+1.9%

+18.2%

November

+13.3%

+6.2%

+17.6%

+9.6

+4.7%

+11.4%

+4.4%

+8.3%

+0.3

+5.1%

+8.0%

-11.1%

+9.9%

December

+14.2%

+6.8%

+20.9%

+8.9%

+8.4%

+11.0%

+5.1%

+8.0%

+2.1%

+3.9%

+8.1%

+3.6%

+6.8%

4th Quarter

+14.0%

+6.7%

+16.1%

+9.7%

+3.1%

+11.4%

+3.5%

+6.4%

+0.3%

+5.9%

+8.0%

-2.1%

+11.9%

Full Year

+15.7%

+9.6%

+18.6%

+7.0%

+5.1%

+10.2%

+7.7%

+9.1%

+5.7%

+3.6%

+5.6%

+0.3%

+14.0%

January

+15.0%

+9.8%

+14.4%

+13.2%

+9.6%

+12.9%

+13.6%

+7.0%

+4.7%

+12.4%

+17.7%

+9.7%

+11.9%

February

+8.7%

+4.5%

+3.8%

+10.2%

+7.8%

+5.5%

+7.0%

+4.8%

+7.1%

+15.8%

+10.4%

+8.5%

+1.5%

March

+10.2%

+8.2%

+5.5%

+17.5%

+12.5%

+7.3%

+9.7%

+7.1%

+15.4%

+19.5%

+19.1%

+22.2%

+19.6%

1st Quarter

+11.2%

+7.5%

+7.7%

+13.7%

+10.0%

+8.4%

+10.0%

+6.3%

+9.3%

+16.0%

+15.6%

+13.3%

+11.5%

April

+4.0%

+3.9%

+5.7%

+3.5%

+5.5%

+0.1%

+4.3%

-0.2%

+2.6%

+18.8%

+5.9%

+3.8%

+9.8%

May

+6.7%

+5.5%

+3.6%

+12.2%

+12.0%

+5.5%

+8.0%

-4.5%

+5.8%

+26.3%

+13.4%

+5.7%

+8.5%

June

+6.3%

+4.0%

+7.5%

+10.1%

+13.9%

+3.4%

+2.9%

-0.5%

+6.8%

+22.7%

+11.0%

+12.4%

12.4%

2nd Quarter

+5.7%

+4.5%

+5.6%

+8.6%

+10.4%

+3.1%

+5.0%

-1.8%

+5.1%

+22.6%

+10.2%

+7.3%

+10.3%

July

+3.6%

+3.4%

+4.0%

+11.2%

+11.7%

+4.8%

+4.5%

-9.7%

+1.2%

+15.9%

+5.1%

+10.9%

+14.0%

August

-1.1%

+2.7%

+1.5%

+12.7%

+8.8%

+4.4%

+4.6%

-6.4%

+5.2%

+26.4%

+10.1%

+2.4%

+8.9%

September

+4.5%

+2.6%

+7.4%

+7.9%

+13.5%

+7.1%

+6.6%

+0.3%

+2.9%

+16.1%

+12.8%

+13.9%

+8.9%

3rd Quarter

+2.2%

+2.9%

+4.1%

+10.7%

+11.2%

+5.4%

+5.1%

-5.6%

+3.1%

+19.6%

+9.2%

+8.8%

+8.0%

October -0.1% +4.3% +3.7% +7.1% Source: Transport Canada and individual airports’ traffic reports.

+16.7%

-0.7%

+6.4%

-0.7%

+3.1%

+16.1%

+11.7%

+12.8%

-0.9%

2004

Calgary

+8.7%

MontréalTrudeau +16.7%

Toronto

Vancouver

3rd Quarter

+16.4%

October

2005

If your airport is interested in providing InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. with its monthly passenger statistics, please email Doris Mak at doris_mak@intervistas.com. InterVISTAS’ Canadian Aviation Intelligence Report Page 6 December 2005 Copyright ©2005 InterVISTAS Consulting Inc., all rights reserved.

NEWS ARTICLES AIR CANADA UPDATE ACE ANNOUNCES CREATION OF JAZZ AIR INCOME FUND ACE Aviation Holdings Inc. (ACE), parent company of Air Canada, along with Jazz Air Limited Partnership announced on 28 November that a preliminary prospectus has been filed for an initial public offering of units of Jazz Air Income Fund. Jazz will distribute the net proceeds of the offering to ACE, and ACE will retain control of Jazz through a majorityretained interest. Jazz is Canada’s largest regional airline.

AIR CANADA ANNOUNCES LAUNCH OF DAILY NON-STOP SERVICE BETWEEN EDMONTON AND LOS ANGELES

On 5 December, Air Canada announced that it would launch daily non-stop flights to Los Angeles on 1 May 2006. The Air Canada Jazz operated flights are timed to conveniently connect with travelers to and from Grande Prairie and Fort McMurray.

AIR CANADA TO LAUNCH DAILY NONSTOP SERVICE BETWEEN MONTREAL AND MEXICO CITY Air Canada announced on 22 November that it would introduce non-stop flights, beginning 17 June 2006 between Montreal and Mexico City. The daily year-round flights that begin in the peak summer season will complement the Toronto-Mexico City daily non-stop service.

AIR CANADA OFFERS SAVINGS OF UP TO 70% WITH ‘BUY-IN-BULK’ FLIGHT PASSES Air Canada expanded its line of multi-trip online pass products on 15 November with the launch of four new Flight Passes. The passes, designed for leisure clients, are available for purchase until 30 December 2005, and offer savings of up to 70% for travelers with flexible travel dates to selected popular sun destinations.

Page 7 December 2005

OTHER CANADIAN AIRLINE NEWS WESTJET’S THIRD QUARTER NET EARNINGS INCREASE 44% On 3 November, WestJet announced its 2005 third quarter net earnings were up 43.6% to $30.3 million from $21.1 million during the same period in 2004. Available seat miles grew this quarter by 17.0% to 2.8 billion while load factor grew to 78.6% compared to 76.6% in the third quarter of 2004.

WESTJET COMMENCES SERVICE TO HONOLULU On 9 December, WestJet began its new nonstop service between Vancouver and Honolulu. WestJet offers five non-stop flights per week on this route.

CANJET TO GENERATE $30 MILLION WINTER CHARTER PROGRAM

CanJet announced on 18 November that it would substantially increase the number of charter flights it flies on behalf of tour operators this winter. Chris Kelly, Director, Finance & Strategic Planning at CanJet, stated that with the implementation of longer range, more fuel efficient Boeing 737-500 series aircraft, they would be able to operate to most of the popular sun destinations this winter. Mr. Kelly added that the charter contracts would generate revenue in excess of $30 million for CanJet.

AIR TRANSAT FREE TO FLY TO ATHENS Transport Canada has granted Air Transat the designation to offer scheduled international air service between Canada and Greece. According to Transport Canada, Air Transat initially plans to offer scheduled air services between Toronto and Montreal to Athens, three times a week, beginning in April 2006. Air Transat formerly operated to Greece on a charter basis.

NEWS ARTICLES OTHER CANADIAN AIRLINE NEWS – CON’T TRANSAT INCOME DOWN 35% FROM 2004 Transat A.T., Canada's leading holiday company, recorded a 7.5% increase in revenue during their fiscal 2005, but income fell 35% to $54.5 million. The company identified rising fuel costs and intensified competition as the reason for the decline.

between Canada and the UAE is expected to double this year.

DHL’S LARGEST ON-AIRPORT FACILITY TO BE BUILT AT CHARLOTTE

DHL has announced that it will build its largest U.S. on-airport service center facility at Charlotte Douglas International Airport. The $6 million investment would be an 80,000-square-foot facility, and handle a wide variety of shipments, including palletized and container freight.

FEDEX TO EXPAND INDIA SERVICE

CANADIAN AIRPORTS TORONTO AIRPORT THIRD QUARTER NET INCOME UP $2 MILLION

FedEx is to expand its service in India by increasing flight frequencies. It will also improve its connections between key export centers and regional hubs. The changes will allow FedEx to increase cargo capacity and enhance transit cut-off times.

On 10 November, the Greater Toronto Airport Authority (GTAA) reported that passenger volume growth has positively impacted the GTAA’s financial results. Passenger activity rose 6% to 23 million passengers for the nine-month period ended 30 September 2005, from the same period in 2004. After accounting for debt service and amortization, the GTAA recorded net income of $66.8 million in the nine-month period ended 30 September 2005 compared to 59.4 million during 2004, but only $2 million for the third quarter alone.

Aeroflot Russian Airlines has planned to set up a wholly owned, independent subsidiary titled Aeroflot-Cargo. Aeroflot’s cargo turnover rose 85% in 2004, and the carrier anticipates its new subsidiary will more than double its current revenue by 2008.

NAV CANADA BUILDING NEW OPERATIONAL FACILITY IN KENORA

BAX GLOBAL SOLD TO DEUTSCHE BAHN FOR US$ 1.1 BILLION

NAV Canada has begun construction of a new $2.5 million Air Operations Building in Kenora, Ontario. The new facility will be finished construction by the summer of 2006.

CARGO

AEROFLOT TO CREATE STAND-ALONE CARGO SUBSIDIARY

The Brink’s Company announced on 16 November that it has agreed to sell its Bax Global freight transport and logistics unit to Deutsche Bahn AG for US$1.1 billion. The transaction is to be completed by year-end.

ETIHAD CARGO LAUNCHES CANADIAN SERVICE Etihad Crystal Cargo, Etihad Airways’ air freight division, will move bellyhold shipments via their Abu Dhabi to Toronto (via Brussels) service. Bilateral trade Page 8 December 2005

NEWS ARTICLES EDMONTON AIRPORT APPOINTS TWO NEW VICE PRESIDENTS

PEOPLE IN THE NEWS CEO OF YVRAS ANNOUNCES RETIREMENT Frank O’Neill, President and CEO of YVR Airport Services (YVRAS), has announced 31 March 2006 as the date of his retirement. Mr. O’Neill served Canada in the field of transportation throughout his career, and helped drive YVRAS to be a world leader in airport management. Mr. O’Neill will be succeeded by George Casey, currently YVRAS Vice President, Business Development.

LOUISE PAGÉ APPOINTED TO CANADIAN TOURISM COMMISSION BOARD

The Honourable David L. Emerson, Minister responsible for the Canadian Tourism Commission, announced on 21 November the appointment of Louise Pagé to the commission’s Board. Ms. Pagé holds a Master’s degree in Public Administration and was appointed Deputy Minister of Tourism for the Province of Quebec in April 2005.

HARDING TO JOIN CANADIAN TOURISM COMMISSION Will Harding will be leaving his position of Policy and Planning Officer with the Council of Tourism Associations of BC to join the Canadian Tourism Commission as Senior Communications Advisor in the new Vancouver office of the CTC.

CATHAY PACIFIC CHAIRMAN QUITS

At the end of January 2006, Cathay Pacific Airways’ chairman David Turnbull will leave Cathay’s parent company, the Swire Pacific Group. Turnbull, who was managing director of Cathay Pacific for eight years, has decided that he wanted to return to a more active operational role. Christopher Pratt, chairman of Swire Pacific Offshore, will succeed Turnbull.

Page 9 December 2005

Edmonton Airports has appointed Diane Trenn as Vice President, Operations, and Peter McCart as Vice President, Marketing. Trenn joined the Airport in 1983, while McCart has spent the last 17 years at Air Canada.

OTHER QANTAS ORDERS 787 – TO ADD SERVICE TO VANCOUVER

Qantas ordered 65 787s with rights for an additional 40. The order will be split between the 787-8 and larger capacity 787-9. Up to 28 of the aircraft may be assigned to Jetstar, Qantas' low cost subsidiary, which is expected to grow beyond domestic and transTasman service into medium haul markets. Qantas indicated that Jetstar International would take the first four aircraft and would likely fly the 787 to Vancouver from Brisbane and Melbourne. Qantas decided that neither the 777 or A340 currently meet its needs for very long haul capacity. It is considering either adding to its existing A380 order, or purchasing the new, longer range higher capacity 747-8.

QANTAS SET DATE FOR SYDNEY – SAN FRANCISCO – VANCOUVER SERVICE

Beginning 13 June 2006, Qantas will launch three services per-week between Sydney and Vancouver via San Francisco. Qantas general manager John Borghetti said that these seasonal services (ending 14 August 2006) are the first step towards establishing year-round flights to Canada.

CANADA CREATING AIRCRAFT FINANCING PLAN

Canadian Transport Minister Jean-C. Lapierre announced on 25 November that the government would establish an Aircraft Sales Financing Framework to support construction of Canadian-made planes. The plan is designed to replace the current process of ad hoc decisions for each major project.

Passenger Market Data for Airports Accurate and Timely Marketing Data: A Key to Air Service Development InterVISTAS Consulting, in conjunction with the International Air Transport Association and other suppliers, is offering a unique data set that provides passenger market sizes, travel routings and fare profile data for domestic, transborder and international markets.

InterVISTAS Consulting Inc. rd 550-1200 West 73 Avenue, Vancouver, BC, V6P 6G5 Canada Telephone: 1-604-717-1800 Facsimile: 1-604-717-1818 E-mail: info@intervistas.com

Origin & Destination Market Data for all Top Markets Inbound & outbound travel agency data is now available for Canadian domestic and top international air markets. InterVISTAS’ market data is supported by a number of sources including IATA travel agency ticket sales. Travel agency sales represent approximately 80% of scheduled international air tickets issued worldwide. The database includes more than 7 million air tickets issued annually in Canada and several million tickets destined for Canada annually.

Identify True Origin & Destination Flows • Quantify city-pair market sizes for air service development initiatives Analyse Hub Activity & Routings • Identify key routing patterns to support air service proposals Understand Competition within Airport Catchment Areas • Quantify traffic leakage to determine true market sizes For more information, contact: Nancy Keen InterVISTAS Consulting Telephone: 604-717-1822 Email: nancy_keen@intervistas.com

PASSENGER MARKET DEMAND DATA: BUILDING TOTAL MARKET SIZES December 2005

Timely and accurate airline industry data is critical for developing effective air service development strategies and as supporting data for presentations to targeted airlines. Unfortunately, access to detailed passenger demand data, at the level required for airline route planners, has historically been a challenge in Canada, and since the merger of Air Canada into Canadian, limitations of the Statistics Act has made matters worse. Given that government data is limited, many airport managers rely on data from private sector vendors. Two types of data are available in Canada: airline booking and ticket sales data.

Nancy Keen Vice President, Market Research & Analysis

Airline booking data, termed MIDT for “marketing information data tapes”, can be sourced from several major Global Distribution Systems (GDS) and other intermediaries. This data represents airline passenger reservations made through the major GDS systems by travel agents. While reservations are not the same as tickets actually sold and used, for some applications they may be an acceptable substitute. Airline ticket sales data are primarily sourced from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Billing & Settlement Plan (BSP). The airline ticket sales data represent purchases through accredited travel agencies in Canada and other countries. This data is for tickets actually sold in the marketplace. Both sources provide similar information, such as origin/destination passenger volumes, travel routing, and ticket class. Unlike government data sources, both MIDT and IATA BSP data can be used to estimate drive diversion (traffic leakage). This information on passengers who live near one airport, but who drive to another airport to travel, is essential for understanding the true potential of an airport market. Both Sources are Limited. While airline booking data and airline ticket sales data are among the most comprehensive sources of airline travel data available, in their raw form, they do not reflect total passenger market sizes, since airline tickets are also booked/sold through other distribution channels. As a result, data modelling is required to calculate total market size by integrating bookings/ticket sales with carrier direct and other distribution channels, plus low cost carrier and charter data (see diagram at right). Incorporating additional data is particularly important for Canadian domestic markets. This is due to the growth of WestJet and other carriers, whose tickets are primarily handled outside the IATA ticket clearinghouse and the GDS booking systems.

Page 11 December 2005

Passenger Diversion (Outbound)

Passenger Diversion (Inbound)

Quantify ticket sales/bookings for airport

Quantify regional ticket sales/bookings diverting to other airports

Travel agency survey (quantify tickets for lowcost carriers and charters)

Current Passenger Market

Travel agency survey (quantify tickets for low-cost carriers and charters) Resort Operators Survey Airport enplaned/deplaned passenger data provides total airport traffic to match against ticket sales to determine carrier direct ratios

Model carrier direct sales data for city-pairs, using airline capacity, PLANET & historic data

Model carrier direct sales data for city-pairs using airline capacity, PLANET & historic data Airport passenger survey and/or phone survey

Cross-check results against industry data

Passenger survey and/or telephone survey

Cross-check results against industry data

Total True Market Size

PASSENGER MARKET DEMAND DATA: BUILDING TOTAL MARKET SIZES – CON’T Typically this involves integrating survey data, results of traffic allocation models (e.g., PLANET) and certain other industry data (e.g., airport site statistics). International travel generally remains well represented by both ticket sales and ticket booking sources, although there are some variations by world region. While InterVISTAS Consulting often works with both ticket sales data and booking data, the ticket sales data is generally favoured for the following reasons: Data Accuracy to the City-Pair Component O/D Passengers Data Sources Level – InterVISTAS’ preference - Airport Site Statistics Total Market Size is to begin with unadjusted ticket data, which it can then adjust - Traffic Allocation Models Other Distribution - Tourism Statistics separately for each market for Channels 20-60%* - Airline Schedules (carrier direct, Internet, factors such as direct carrier - Airport Passenger Surveys low cost/charter carriers, etc.) sales. Airline ticket booking data can be purchased in an adjusted format, but adjustments are - IATA BSP/GDS MIDT typically made a regional level, Airline Booking/Sales Data Air Ticket Sales / 40-80%* (scaled to represent true Bookings resulting in less precise estimates round trip O/D passengers) of individual city-pair market sizes. While some general patterns may exist, our *Proportions of coverage will vary by route and airport, but may be higher on routes with experience is that carrier direct limited low cost carrier or charter air service options. sales ratios typically vary by market sector and individual route. Sources of route by route variability in direct carrier sales include differences in market size, air carrier service levels, competition, and business versus leisure importance. Higher levels of accuracy can be achieved through adjustments on a city-pair level, as well as by cross-checking the results with airport traffic statistics, historic government sources, flight schedules and other aviation data. Airline ticket data allow higher accuracy than booking data. Flexibility & Ease of Access – As InterVISTAS is a Canadian distributor of the IATA ticket sales data, the IATA database files are maintained in-house and can be immediately accessed and adjusted. In contrast, the purchase of ticket booking data generally requires a quote & negotiation process with one or more suppliers. This process can take two to three weeks to request competitive quotes and evaluate options/pricing. Each supplier offers a slightly different product in semi-standard report format. Cost Competitiveness - While both sources are competitively priced, the ticket sales product can more readily accommodate smaller custom-run data purchases. The ticket booking products often have a minimum cost threshold that is not as well suited to small requests. InterVISTAS Consulting has been a distributor of IATA air ticket sales data in Canada since 2000. The company has recently teamed with Airclaims to also offer U.S. air ticket sales data in Canada. Our team closely tracks changes in airfare distribution/access, airline commission rates/policies, GDS developments, and other issues affecting airline ticket distribution. InterVISTAS works extensively with Canadian and international passenger market data, airport passenger and travel agency survey research and other sources to develop origin/destination passenger data to support aviation and tourism initiatives. Page 12 December 2005

CANADA-U.S. FULL OPEN SKIES December 2005

On 10 November 2005, Canada and the U.S. agreed to a new full open skies air services agreement. The new agreement, which will take effect on 1 September 2006, constitutes a set of amendments to the 1995 Canada-U.S. air services agreement. While the 1995 Canada-US agreement was referred to at the time as an open skies agreement, it no longer meets that U.S. standard for an open skies agreement. Some now refer to the 1995 agreement as the Canada-U.S. open transborder agreement. The new agreement meets the standards of a full open skies treaty.

The 1995 Open Transborder Agreement The 1995 Canada-U.S. air services agreement provided for multiple designation of air carriers by each country, unrestricted first and second freedom traffic rights, unrestricted third and fourth freedoms for carriers of both countries, and country of origin charter rules. Limitations of the 1995 agreement included:

Michael Tretheway Executive Vice President

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Limits on fifth freedom operations. Fifth freedom operations were allowed on only three routes: Canada-Honolulu-Australasia and beyond (one Canadian carrier – currently Air Canada); Canada-San Juan and beyond (any number of Canadian carriers); and U.S.-Gander-Europe and beyond (one U.S. carrier). Note that Full Open Skies agreements allow unrestricted fifth freedom operations. Most U.S. open skies agreements also provide open seventh freedom rights for all-cargo services, a feature not incorporated into the 1995 agreement.1

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Prohibition of courier co-terminal services. Courier operators operating aircraft with a maximum takeoff weight greater than 35,000 pounds were not allowed to combine points in the other country. Thus, a U.S. cargo carrier could not fly from Memphis to Montreal and beyond to Halifax, even if only U.S. originating cargo is flown between Montreal and Halifax (i.e., no Canadian domestic cargo is carried on the aircraft). Note that full open skies agreements provide unlimited ability to perform passenger and cargo coterminalization.

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Routing and pricing flexibility. Airlines were prohibited from offering prices on sixth and fifth freedom services that undercut prices offered by third and fourth freedom carriers, and from using through flight numbering on sixth freedom services. Note that full open skies agreements provide unlimited ability to set prices on 6th and 5th freedom services, unless both countries object to a price.

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No cargo 7th freedom operations. The 1995 agreement made no provision for 7th freedom cargo operations. Thus a U.S. carrier could not operate all cargo flights such as Toronto-Paris, nor could a Canadian carrier operate flights such as Miami-Caracas. Given the directionally unbalanced nature of cargo services, 7th freedom traffic rights may be important in some cases for improving the financial performance of cargo services. Note that most full open skies agreements provide for unrestricted cargo 7th freedom traffic rights, but generally make no provision for passenger 7th freedom flights.

•

Another point to note is that without a full open skies agreement in place, Air Canada and United have been unable to obtain anti-trust immunity from the U.S. to allow their alliance to engage in joint setting of air fares and joint management of capacity.

1 For further information on open skies, and for definitions of terms such as 5th freedom traffic rights, visit: www.openskies.ca

Page 13 December 2005

CANADA-U.S. FULL OPEN SKIES – CON’T The 2005 Full Open Skies Agreement. What was incorporated in the agreement. The 2005 agreement adds: •

unrestricted fifth freedom rights for both passenger and cargo operations;

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unrestricted seventh freedom rights for cargo;

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full cargo co-terminalisation;

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through flight numbering on sixth freedom operations;

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pricing freedoms on fifth and sixth freedom operations; and

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removal of previous regulations on computer reservation systems.

What was not incorporated in the agreement. The 2005 agreement does not include: •

cabotage;

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right of establishment; and

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passenger seventh freedom operations.

Other Comments. There was discussion of how charter services would be handled. The new agreement allows unrestricted 3rd/4th/5th and 6th freedom charter services. Canada has consumer protection restrictions on charter services, but these are not incorporated into the air services treaty. The new treaty also allows carriers to operate change of gauge services. For example, a U.S. carrier could operate a 5th freedom route such as Dallas-Vancouver-Hong Kong, and use a 737 for the Dallas-Vancouver segment and a 777 for the Vancouver-Hong Kong segment. The new agreement allows surface transport (trucking) to be used for cargo services. Thus a Canadian cargo carrier could sell Winnipeg-New York services, which are routed by air from Winnipeg to Toronto and then by truck from Toronto to New York. The new agreement has revised wording on airport (and air navigation) user charges. User charges must be “just, reasonable and not unjustly discriminatory.” Charges assessed on the airline of one country cannot be less favourable than the charges on an airline of another country. Charges may not exceed the full costs (including a reasonable rate of return on assets, after depreciation) of providing services. The two countries have agreed that each must review any complaints about user charges and must take steps to remedy any charge that does not meet the treaty’s charging principles. The existence of a full open skies agreement between Canada and the U.S. could now make it possible for Air Canada and United to further develop their alliance by engaging in joint pricing and capacity decisions with anti-trust immunity. The carriers will have to apply for such rights and receive approval, but without a full open skies agreement, the U.S. policy has been to deny anti-trust immunity for these kinds of activities. Page 14 December 2005

CARGO CAPERS December 2005

The new Canada-U.S. Air Bilateral Agreement. At long last, Canada and the U.S. have completed the negotiations promised shortly after the last agreement was signed in 1995, and agreed to the standard U.S. “Open Skies” model. The 2005 agreement adds a number of significant components from a cargo perspective:

Robert Andriulaitis Director, Transportation & Logistics Studies

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Unrestricted fifth freedom rights;

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Unrestricted seventh freedom rights;

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Full cargo co-terminalisation; and

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Pricing freedoms on fifth and sixth freedom operations.

The key win: open fifth freedoms. Undoubtedly the most significant element from a national perspective is an open exchange of fifth freedoms. Now U.S. carriers can operate from the U.S. through any Canadian point, dropping off, and taking on, cargo before going on to Europe or Asia. This gives the opportunity for some smaller, and not so small, Canadian communities to gain non-stop main deck freighter access to Asia and Europe. No longer do Canadian communities have to try to show demand to fill up an entire aircraft, or hope to extract permission from the government for ad hoc fifth freedom rights – now airport marketers have the certainty of knowing U.S. carriers have fifths and can focus on proving demand sufficient to entice U.S. carriers on a top-up basis. Notice the specificity in the previous paragraph: “U.S. carriers can operate.” While Canadian carriers now have the right from the U.S. to pick up traffic in the U.S. and carry it to third nations and to take cargo from third nations and carry it to the U.S. – we also need permission of these third countries to do the same before Canadian carriers can take advantage of this. The U.S. has open skies agreements with 74 nations, which gives their carriers the right to perform 5th freedom services through Canada right now (actually, as of September 2006, when the Canada-U.S. agreement comes into force). Canada has very few bilateral air agreements that give our carriers fifth freedom rights. Before Canadian carriers can fly from Canada to Latin America, the Caribbean, the Pacific Rim, or even Europe via the U.S. with full traffic rights, Canada’s Chief Air Negotiator and his team of Transport Canada and Foreign Affairs staff will have to renegotiate Canada’s bilaterals to incorporate fifth freedoms. On behalf of the Canadian carriers and the Canadian cargo community – lets get cracking! We’ve got an eight-month window to achieve as many additional open skies agreements as possible.

A significant win: cargo coterminalisation. Many of you are probably not all that interested in cargo co-terminalisation – and with some justification as the number of markets where this is likely to take place is somewhat limited. Nevertheless, in those markets where it makes sense, it could provide airports not only with additional landing fee revenues, but a better level of service for local shippers through earlier deliveries and later cut-off times. Edmonton has been a leader in seeking co-terminalisation rights, and their work with the Standing Committee on Transport undoubtedly went a long way towards clearing the air and enabling a rational discussion to take place.

A potential win: cargo sevenths. We may be less likely to see cargo seventh freedom operations here in Canada than we are fifth freedom operations given our proximity to the U.S. and our relatively small cargo market. Nevertheless, it does give U.S. carriers additional flexibility to serve Canadian markets that are currently underserved, and we’ve maintained for a long time that our

Page 15 December 2005

CARGO CAPERS – CON’T communities are underserved as far as international freighter capacity is concerned. If something happens, that would be great, as it would mean a U.S. carrier setting up shop here and operating a dedicated Canada-third country service. If nothing happens, so be it – no harm done. What intrigues me is the idea that the government accepted this element – which provides a clear competitive threat to Canadian international cargo carriers -- as it indicates a degree of interest in letting the market dictate services instead of trying to protect against the possibility of competing new services. For Canadian carriers, once we have open skies agreements with the key third nations, seventh freedoms provide additional flexibility and opportunity to serve one of the world’s key air transport markets.

Conclusion: three cheers! The Government of Canada is to be commended for reaching this new agreement. We might complain that this is something that is long overdue, but I must admit I am pleased how quickly an agreement was reached once Minister Lapierre and Secretary Mineta announced they would explore opportunities to move forward at the CAC conference last February. Now it is time to show the government we were right about the opportunities and they were right to reach this agreement. Get marketing!

Page 16 December 2005

U.S. – EUROPEAN OPEN SKIES 2 December 2005

The U.S. and European Commission Delegation reached agreement on 18 November 2005 regarding a potential first phase of an Open Skies Agreement between the two parties and issued a Memorandum of Consultations (MOC).

What the Agreement Would Cover # # # # Jon Ash President InterVISTAS-ga2 Consulting Inc. Washington, D.C.

It would replace all existing air services treaties between the U.S. and the individual member states of the European Union (EU). It would put an open skies framework in place that could be expanded later in a second phase. If implemented, the U.S. would recognise the existence of a “community carrier”. It would establish unlimited fifth freedom rights for both parties. U.S. rights would be limited to 5th freedoms beyond the EU. It would create unlimited 7th freedom rights for cargo carriers. Again, U.S. right would be limited to beyond the EU. There would be no additional 7th freedom rights between EU member states.

Implications for Canada. When combined with the Canada – U.S. open skies agreement, it could also create opportunities for U.S. carriers to serve Canada – Europe routes on a 5th freedom basis.

Process and Hurdles # #

The European Council of (Transport) Ministers (ECM) must approve the agreement before it can be implemented. The U.S. made clear that Ownership and Control would not be part of the first phase agreement. However, the U.S. Department of Transportation issued a Notice of Proposed Rule Making (NPRM) on November 2, “Actual Control of U.S. air carriers”, has made this issue part of phase 1. The European Commission will not take the agreement to its ECM for a decision until the U.S. rulemaking is final and the Commission can assess its impact. There is no guarantee that the ECM would approve the agreement since there is continuing concern that the British might instigate another blocking action similar to what occurred in the 2004 agreement.

Forces Lining Up. A number of parties are staking out their respective positions on the NPRM. Some U.S. stakeholders will argue that the proposal, as outlined in the NPRM, cannot be legally implemented by the U.S. DOT because it would violate the Federal Aviation Act. However, European stakeholders may argue that even if the NPRM is legal, it offers little relief to European carriers’ in terms of “control” of investments in U.S. carriers. In their judgement, the NPRM merely allows the DOT greater latitude in evaluating proposals by foreign interests to invest in U.S. carriers. Members of Congress have already expressed concern that the Administration is evolving a policy that is in conflict with the law. This argument is partially based on substance and partially on the fact that the Administration did not adequately brief the aviation leadership in Congress.

Next Steps # # # #

Commission briefs the Council of Ministers at its December meeting (5th). Comments are due on the U.S. NPRM on 7th of January. The U.S. Department of Transport will issue a Final Rule, presumably in the spring of 2006 (assuming that Congress is unsuccessful in getting the NPRM withdrawn by the Department). The Commission makes a judgement on the Final Rule and determines whether or not to ask the Council to take action on the underlying first phase agreement. This could be in March or June of 2006.

Page 17 December 2005

AIRPORT BEST PRACTICES:

GTAA PREPARATION FOR PANDEMICS 7 December 2005

Rob Beynon Director, Airport Marketing

At the Canadian Airports Council Conference in November 2005, John Kaldeway, CEO of the Greater Toronto Airports Authority (GTAA) made a very informative presentation on the lessons the GTAA can provide to others from how it dealt with SARS in 2003. You will recall how during the SARS outbreak, the World Health Organisation provided “travel advice” regarding Toronto, due to a modest outbreak of SARS there. The result was that travel to/through/from Toronto was significantly reduced with negative impacts on the region’s tourism sector. Air Canada cited SARS as a major factor contributing to its weakening financial position in 2003, before and during its period of operating under bankruptcy protection. During the SARS crisis, GTAA quickly responded to the travel advice and implemented an information campaign, screening, etc. to contribute to efforts to prevent any further spread of SARS. Recognising the potential for other illnesses to appear, the GTAA has developed a formal process to plan for such emergencies, position supplies, undertake practice exercises to test out the functioning of their response plans, etc. GTAA has developed for its own internal use a document titled Pandemic Influenza Planning: Maintaining Continuity of Airport Operations and Services, and announced that it is willing to share this document with other airports. The report provides factual background on influenza pandemics, provides an overview of actions initiated by GTAA to mitigate the threat, and provides a useful set of tables on next steps to be undertaken. These tables are blank and can be filled in by any airport to develop its own plan for readiness. For any airport which has not begun its own planning for the potential of a pandemic, this resource might be a good place to start. For both its initiative in developing a formal planning process for dealing with a major pandemic, and for its leadership in sharing information on what it has learned with other airports, InterVISTAS wishes to complement the management and team at GTAA. Be Prepared!

Page 18 December 2005

WASHINGTON REPORT 8 December 2005

U.S. Registered Traveller Program to be Established Nation-wide After a yearlong test at five airports, the U.S. Registered Traveller Program will be implemented across the country beginning June 2006. The program allows participants to bypass some onerous screening requirements such as individual pat-downs and to board quickly through special security lines at participating airports. To obtain the ID card required for the program, enrolling travellers must pay a fee and undergo a government background check.

U.S. Air Carriers Call for Senate to Enact One-Year Fuel Tax Exemption Charles Chambers Senior Vice President InterVISTAS-ga2 Consulting Inc. Washington, D.C.

Regional Airline Association President, Deborah McElroy and Air Transport Association CEO, James May, requested a one-year suspension of the 4.3% jet fuel tax, in a hearing before the Senate Commerce Aviation Subcommittee. They also asked for a one-time $600 million appropriation to cover lost revenue.

TSA Enhances Security Screening Procedures - Softens Prohibited Item List On 2 December, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announced updated security measures for commercial aviation. The changes will result in more random screenings, fewer prohibited items and a TSA workforce dedicated to detecting and defeating more serious threats. Beginning 22 December, small scissors, wrenches, screwdrivers, and pliers will be permitted onboard aircraft.

FAA Deploys New Communications Gateway at Air Traffic Control Centers The Federal Aviation Administration announced on 7 December that it has deployed a new communication gateway that processes radar and flight data in all 20 en route air traffic control centres. The new system, called En Route Communications Gateway (ECG), eliminates the possibility of a system outage by removing the single point of failure that existed in the previous system. The ECG consolidates all gateway functions into a single system, allowing all national airspace system components to communicate seamlessly and securely.

Page 19 December 2005

OTTAWA REPORT 1 December 2005

Transport Minister Announces Advisory Panel for Review of the CATSA On 23 November, Transport Minister Jean-C. Lapierre announced the appointment of an advisory panel to aid him in his review of the Canadian Air Transport Security Authority (CATSA) Act. Professor Emeritus at York University, Reg Whitaker, will serve as Chair of the Panel. Dr. Jacques Bourgault, a research fellow at the Canada School of Public Service since 2001 will serve as a panellist, along with airport consultant Mr. Chern Heed. According to Minister Lapierre, the panel will consult with stakeholders across the country in order to identify possible changes and enhancements to the CATSA Act.

Canada in Talks to Introduce Air Service to Algeria Sam Barone Regional Vice President Ottawa, ON

International Trade Minister Jim Peterson, along with Transport Minister Jean-C. Lapierre and Minister of Foreign Affairs Pierre Pettigrew announced on 23 November that the Government of Canada is prepared to discuss the creation of direct air service with Algeria. With two-way trade valued at $3.4 billion annually, Algeria is Canada’s largest economic partner in Africa and the Middle East.

Government of Canada Pledges $110 Million for an Immediate Action Plan to Enhance Transit Passenger Security On 23 November, Transport Minister Jean-C. Lapierre with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister responsible for Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Anne McLennan, announced early actions to enhance the security of Canada’s passenger rail and public transport systems, including funding of $110 million for an Immediate Action Plan. The plan will provide financial assistance to high volume rail and public transit operators to enhance security in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa, and Montreal. Other communities will be eligible for assistance to carry out security assessments and develop plans.

Transport Minister Announces $27 Million in Funding for Marine Security Projects Transport Minister Jean-C. Lapierre, announced on 23 November that projects to enhance security at 101 ports and marine facilities across the country will receive up to $26.9 million of funding in the second round of the three year $115-million Marine Security Contribution Program. The funds will go towards enhancements such as surveillance equipment, dockside and perimeter security, command, control and communications equipment, and training.

Freight Transportation Industry’s Sustainability Projects to Receive $3.3 Million in Funding Transport Minister Jean-C. Lapierre announced on 24 November that nine projects to reduce greenhouse emissions in the freight transportation industry were selected to receive near $1.3 million in Transport Canada’s Freight Sustainability Demonstration Program. Ten other new projects were announced $2 million in funding on 17 November.

NAV CANADA Reports September and October Traffic Figures NAV CANADA announced its September traffic figures on 21 November, citing an increase of 6.5% compared to the same month in 2004; as measured in weighted charging units for en route, terminal and oceanic air navigation services. On 13 December, NAV CANADA announced that October traffic was up 3.7% from October 2004. Page 20 December 2005

ARE YOU PREPARED FOR A POTENTIAL AVIAN FLU PANDEMIC ? 7 December 2005

Michael Tretheway Executive Vice President

InterVISTAS is currently working with the World Tourism Organisation and the World Economic Forum (the folks who put on the annual economic summit in Davos, Switzerland) to examine the feasibility of developing a global disaster response network and resource for the tourism industry. Whether disasters are due to natural causes (e.g., Tsunami, Hurricane Rita) or manmade (terrorism events, economic meltdowns such as the 1997 Asian economic crisis), their impact on the tourism industry, individual travellers, their families and tourism workers can be devastating. As the Forum, WTO and InterVISTAS work on this feasibility study, we have been tracking a potential disaster: an increasing likelihood of a global pandemic due to avian flu.

Are you prepared? In November 2005, the World Health Organisation elevated its avian flu alert rating to Yellow-3 on a 6 point scale (see below). Moving into yellow status is a significant event, as it is the signal that governments and other organisations must begin to take the threat of a pandemic extremely seriously. The trigger for Yellow-3 is that a virus (H5N1 in this case) is causing illness in humans but is “not yet spreading efficiently and sustainably between humans.” There have been 135 cases of human H5N1 influenza, with 69 deaths. 35 of the cases and 24 of the deaths have been in the past two months, compared to 9 cases and 8 deaths in the previous two months. In the past four months, none of the cases have been in China or Indonesia, 27 cases have been in Vietnam and 17 in Thailand. It is important to note that the WHO is not recommending any travel restrictions for any country at this time. Nor is the WHO recommending that airports or other authorities screen travellers. It does recommend that “travellers to affected areas should avoid contact with live animal markets and poultry farms, and any free-ranging or caged poultry.” While there is no pandemic at present, and no restrictions on travel, the aviation and tourism industries may want to engage in preparedness planning. Elsewhere in this issue, we have recognised the efforts of the Greater Toronto Airports Authority to plan for a potential pandemic, and to share with other airports a very useful planning document. For any airport which has not begun its own planning for the potential of a pandemic, this resource might be a good place to start.

Page 21 December 2005

INTERVISTAS NEWS December 2005

Howard Mann Joins InterVISTAS-ga2 as Manager, Policy & Market Analysis Mr. Mann recently joined InterVISTAS-ga2 from Airports Council International-North America (ACI- NA). During his five year tenure at ACI-NA, Mr. Mann worked extensively with U.S. and Canadian airport members on a wide variety of issues including bilateral air service policy, domestic air service and passenger facilitation. Mr. Mann served as key liaison to U.S. and Canadian airports on ACI-NA’s JumpStart program, US passport and visa policy, U.S.-VISIT and various other CBP Issues. Mr. Mann has also worked with the US Department of State, U.S. Department of Transportation and U.S. Department of Homeland Security on numerous occasions.

BC Ministry of Economic Development Releases InterVISTAS Study on BC’s Film Industry On 24 November 2005, the BC Ministry of Economic Development released a major InterVISTAS study analysing the impact of tax credits on BC's film and television production industry. The study documented the economic impact of the industry, the degree of effectiveness of tax credits in stimulating production, and assessed the opportunity cost of providing tax credits. The report can be downloaded from www.ecdev.gov.bc.ca.

New Presentations Available at www.InterVISTAS.com #

North American Airline Incentives: Current Practices & Future Trends (Presented by John Weatherill, Manager, Airline Planning & Analysis at the European ASD Conference in Tenerife, Spain)

Designing an Air Service Development Strategy (Presented by John Weatherill, Manager, Airline Planning & Analysis at the European ASD Conference in Tenerife, Spain)

InterVISTAS Upcoming Speaking Engagements #

23 February 2006: 9th Annual Hamburg Aviation Conference, Hamburg, Germany Dr. Mike Tretheway, Executive Vice-President Dr. Tretheway has been honoured by being selected to give the Martin Kunz Memorial Lecture.

InterVISTAS’ Canadian Aviation Intelligence Report is a collection of information gathered from public sources, such as press releases, media articles, etc., information from confidential sources, and items heard on the street. Thus some of the information is speculative and may not materialise. To inquire about advertising opportunities or to provide comments/feedback on the InterVISTAS’ Canadian Aviation Intelligence Report, please contact Rob Beynon at rob_beynon@InterVISTAS.com or 1-604-717-1864. To subscribe, please send an email to subscribe@InterVISTAS.com To unsubscribe, please send an email to unsubscribe@InterVISTAS.com. Prepared by InterVISTAS Consulting Inc.

Page 22 December 2005