Inmigración Venezolana a los EEUU – ¿Quiénes se fueron? Un análisis poblacional, tendencias, características e impacto en Estados Unidos MÓNICA GARCÍA-PÉREZ, PHD PROFESORA ASOCIADA - DPTO. ECONOMÍA S C S U - R E S E A R C H F E L L O W U . O F M I N N E S O TA .
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Objetivos Discutir las estimaciones de migración venezolana en el mundo
Estimar la migración venezolana en los EEUU Caracterizar la población inmigrante de origen venezolano en los EEUU mediante un análisis cuantitativo usando información del país de destino.
31-33%
25-27%
8%
Stock de migraci贸n venezolana seg煤n las Naciones Unidas 700 000
606 344
600 000
550 420 500 000
415 540
400 000
317 323
300 000
239 579 200 000
185 282
100 000
0
1 990
1 995
2 000
2 005
2 010
2 015
Venezuela entre los mรกs grandes
Source: Migration Policy Institute (MPI) tabulation of data from the U.S. Census Bureau, 2014 ACS.
Brasil y Venezuela representan flujos mĂĄs recientes, 1/5 entraron despuĂŠs del 2010 (20 % y 22 %, respect.).
Fuente: MPI
Admisi贸n de no-inmigrantes venezolanos (I-94 ONLY) A帽os Fiscales 1994 a 2013 900.000
Number of individuals
800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000
100.000 0
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
Notes: Admissions represent counts of events, i.e., arrivals, not unique individuals; multiple entries of an individual on the same day are counted as one admission. Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security
Migraci贸n mexicana y venezolana 250
14.000 12.000
200
150
8.000 6.000
100
4.000 50 2.000 0
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Venezuela
Mexico
Source: OECD, International Migration Dataset. CPS estimations for years of Decennial Census.
Mexico
Venezuela
10.000
Venezolanos residenciados 19802013 125.000 115.000 105.000 95.000 85.000 75.000 65.000 55.000
1820-1999 Source: U.S. Department of Homenland Security.
2000-2013
¿Por qué la gente migra? En los modelos de migración con enfoque económico se asume que la tasa de migración depende de las diferencias internacionales de desigualdad de ingresos, niveles de habilidades, políticas migratorias y costos de inmigración. Otros modelos toman en cuenta los lazos familiares y el tiempo de espera para migrar. Aunque en general todos los modelos se basan en modelos de migración interna.
Migrant as an investor in Human Capital Becker (1962): migration can be seen as an investment. Up-front cost with uncertain outcome. o Sjaastad (1962): “a prospective migrant calculates the value of the opportunity available in the market at each alternative destination relative to the value of the opportunity available in the market at the point of origin, subtracts away the cost of moving (assumed to be proportional to migration distance), and chooses the destination which maximizes the present value of lifetime earnings� (Neoclassical Theory background). o Inter-temporal decision of the basic labor model.
o Cost of migration directly related to distance. oModel doesn’t include non-monetary gains from migration. Sjaastad argues that this should be included in income differences.
La teoría económica de inmigración o Borjas (1987, 1991, 1994, 1999). Extensiones de modelos básicos de laboral y y el modelo de migración de Sjaastad.
o Key: the incentive to migrate is driven purely by the international differences in the average returns to labor and human capital in the source and destination countries. Differences in the distribution of human capital incentive immigration. oThe migration decision not only depends on average difference in wages across countries, but on where the immigrant would fit into the destination country labor market and how well the worker’s ability and other human capital can be applied there. o Selectividad de migración internacional: modelo en dos etapas.
¿Son diferentes los inmigrantes? o 1919 Sen. Paul Douglas “Is the New Immigration More Unskilled than the Old?” Respuesta: NO.
Ciertos conceptos son usados cuando se habla de migración: 1. Self-selection: cuando un individual decide participar a su propio juicio en un programa. Los individuos se auto-selecionan en la participación de un programa. 2. Complementarity: similar al concepto en microeconomía de bienes complementarios. 3. Substitution: contrario a (2). Immigration Bias: “If immigrants are different from those they left behind in the source country or the native-born that await them in the destination country, we say there is a selection bias in immigrant flow.”
Chiswick (1978): “ immigrants tended to be relatively more productive and earn more than native-born Americans. Borjas (1987,1991): “immigrants from developing countries tend to be less productive and earn less than natives in more developed destination countries.�
Datos estadísticos Migration Policy Institute United Nations – Department of Economics and Social Affairs – Population Division OECD- International Migration Statistics US Census Bureau: 2000 Census, 2005, 2009-2013, 2014 ACS. Futuro: Datos administrativos
Conteo de Venezolanos en los EEUU segĂşn US Census Bureau 2000
Sexo Hombre Mujer Total
2005
2009
2014
55,000
76,000
82,000
110,000
62,000
87,000
90,000
130,000
117,000
163,000
172,000
240,000
Caracterizaci贸n: Edad y Sexo Edad
Sexo
Mean Std Err Var Median Male
Estatus Marital
Married
2000 32.57 0.21 32.5 47%
2005 34.49 0.47 6% 36 46%
2009 36.24 0.21 5% 37 47%
2014 39.57 0.46 9% 41 46%
48%
49%
51%
52%
3%
2%
3%
14% 21% 25% 23% 12% 3%
12% 21% 24% 23% 15% 4%
9% 19% 21% 21% 23% 6%
Hijos en este a帽o Edad
5 to 17 18 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 64 65 +
17% 24% 28% 18% 8% 4%
Caracterizando: Some Human Capital 2000
2005
2009
2014
Hispanos
Asistiendo a la escuela
Si
32%
28%
25%
21%
11%
Nivel Educativo
Menos que Bachillerato
23%
19%
18%
13%
46%
Bachiller
14%
18%
16%
16%
25%
Universidad no graduado
26%
24%
24%
4%
17%
Licenciado o mĂĄs
33%
36%
40%
44%
11%
49% 50%
50% 56%
51% 59%
55% 59%
28%
Habla InglĂŠs
Si, muy bien
Estatus laboral
Empleado
2000
2005
2009
2014
Casa
Propia
49%
51%
56%
52%
Ingreso total devengado
Mean
20,309.68
22,709.59
28,178.51
33,940.22
Median
6,700.00
9,200.00
14,898.00
15,400.00
Ingreso total
Mean
25,678.16
27,845.94
33,408.37
39,240.56
14000
18000
21283
20800
Salarios
Median Mean Median
21,933.17
24,294.26
29,249.01
34,621.52
10,000.00
14,000.00
16,940.00
16,100.00
Mean
56,945.09
64,916.07
75,588.03
96,427.63
Std Err Median
969.97
1697.52
884.92
2164.254
40,000.00
52,000.00
61,668.00
70,000.00
Ingreso Familiar
Hispanos
19,802.11
22,935.37 19,285.43 55,855.60
70%
Período de Inmigración: Venezolanos
Migración Venezolana es un fenómeno diferente a el total de la migración Hispana
60% 50% 40%
30% 20% 10% 0% 2000
2005
Before 1990
1990 to 1999
2009
2000 to 2005
2014
Período de Inmigración: Hispanos
2006 or later 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000
2005 Before 1990
1990 to 1999
2009 2000 to 2005
2006 or later
2014
Ubicación geográfica preferida 2000 State (ICPSR code)
2005
2009
2014
n°1
Florida
40%
Florida
47%
Florida
46%
Florida
49%
n°2 n°3
New York Texas
10% 8%
New York Texas
8% 6%
Texas New York
9% 7%
Texas New York
12% 6%
n°4
California
7%
California
5%
California
6%
California
5%
n°5
New Jersey
4%
New Jersey
3%
New Jersey
3%
New Jersey
4%
Industry (Top Ten)
n°1
Restaurants and other food services
4%
Restaurants and other food services
5%
Restaurants and other food services
5%
n°2
Construction
3%
Construction
5%
Construction
5%
n°3
Elementary and secondary schools
3%
Elementary and secondary schools
3%
Elementary and secondary schools
3%
n°4
Colleges and universities, including junior colleges
3%
Banking and related activities
2%
Colleges and universities, including junior colleges
2%
Elementary and secondary schools
3%
2%
Real estate
2%
Hospitals
3%
2%
Hospitals
2%
Real estate
2%
2%
Services to buildings and dwellings, except construction cleaning
2%
Architectural, engineering, and related services
2%
2%
Banking and related activities
1%
Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and payroll services
2%
1%
1%
n°5
Hospitals
2%
n°6
Traveler accommodation
2%
n°7
Banking and related activities
n°8
Computer systems design and related services
1%
1%
Colleges and universities, including junior colleges Services to buildings and dwellings, except construction cleaning Insurance carriers and related activities
Real estate
Construction
Restaurants and other food services Colleges and universities, including junior colleges
n°9
Department stores
1%
Child day care services
2%
Traveler accommodation
1%
Computer systems design and related services
n°10
Grocery stores
1%
Non-depository credit and related activities
1%
Child day care services
1%
Private households
3%
3%
3%
Occupation (Top Ten)
2%
Customer Service Representatives
2%
Miscellaneous managers including postmasters and mail superintendents
4%
2%
Retail Salespersons
2%
2%
Accountants and Auditors
2%
2%
Waiters and Waitresses
2%
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
2%
2%
Customer Service Representatives
2%
Elementary and Middle School Teachers
2%
2%
Elementary and Middle School Teachers
2%
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants
2%
1%
First-Line Supervisors of NonRetail Sales
2%
n°1
Retail Salespersons
n°2
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants
2%
Janitors and Building Cleaners
2%
n°3
Cashiers
2%
Secretaries and Administrative Assistants
2%
n°4
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
2%
Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners
n°5
Managers, All Other
1%
n°6
Waiters and Waitresses
1%
n°7
Customer Service Representatives
Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing Miscellaneous managers including postmasters and mail superintendents
2%
Retail Salespersons
Miscellaneous managers including postmasters and mail superintendents Secretaries and Administrative Assistants
1%
Retail Salespersons
2%
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
n°8
Postsecondary Teachers
1%
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
2%
Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners
1%
Waiters and Waitresses
1%
n°9
Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners
1%
Childcare Workers
1%
Cashiers
1%
Postsecondary Teachers
1%
n°10
Driver/Sales Workers and Truck Drivers
1%
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers
1%
Accountants and Auditors
1%
Customer Service Representatives
1%
Comentarios preliminares La migración venezolana ha incrementado significativamente. Sin embargo, todavía hay discrepancias en las estimaciones totales.
Geográficamente, los inmigrantes venezolanos están ubicados en los países donde existían lazos familiares y de negocios. Los inmigrantes venezolanos en los EEUU tienen características diferentes al promedio de los Hispanos a nivel de capital humano y trayectoria migratoria. Los comentarios anecdóticos acerca de la inmigración venezolana en los EEUU no se ven reflejados en las estadísticas institucionales en los EEUU con respecto a las industrias y ocupaciones en el que el grupo migratorio se concentra.
Mónica García-Pérez, PhD Associate Professor Department of Economics, School of Public Affairs St. Cloud State University Research Fellow, The Humphrey School of Public Affairs University of Minnesota