117
VISIT COUNTDOWNTOTHECROWN.COM THE WEEK OF THIS RACE FOR FREE PICKS & ANALYSIS.
PREAKNESS
STAKES May 17, 2014
Stevens & Oxbow were right on time in last year‟s middle jewel. .
KEY INGREDIENTS TO THE PREAKNESS: The two-week turnaround between the Derby and Preakness provides a test to the horses and horsemen who typically don‘t operate in those tight time restraints. But it‘s the Derby alumni who maintain a major stranglehood on ―new shooters.‖ With a field limited to 14 starters and much of the filler chaffed away by Baltimore, the Preakness has become the truest test in the Triple Crown. Big upsets are the absolute exception. Oxbow‘s surprise a year ago marked just the fifth Preakness champ since 1911 to score at 15-1 or more. Horses who ran dynamite races in the Derby but ran into bad pace shapes or traffic trouble have had much recent success in the Preakness. Winners like Lookin At Lucky, Shackleford and Oxbow fit those profiles, not to mention Bodemeister in a repeat runner-up effort two years ago to I‘ll Have Another. Be leery of a Derby winner who exits a perfect race set-up, sure to be underlay odds in the middle jewel. On the flipside, give a highly thought of Derby disappointment a long look at rebounding at an inflated price from what you saw in Louisville. MOST RECENT RENEWAL: Oxbow turned back the clock for jockey Gary Stevens and trainer D. Wayne Lukas with a wire-towire score reminiscent of decades gone by. The Derby‘s toughest pace survivor found the tempo much easier at Old Hilltop as heavily favored Orb struggled to find a rhythm while a listless 4th. The heaviest favorite since Big Brown in ‘08, fans were left wondering if Orb had peaked in Louisville. For Lukas and Stevens, it was Preakness wins No. 6 & 3.
STAKES HISTORY HANDICAPPER’S AIDES: Last 10 Preakness Stakes Winners
BRIS Fig
‘13 Oxbow Stevens Lukas ‘12 I‘ll Have Another Gutierrez O‘Neill ‘11 Shackleford Castanon Romans ‘10 Lookin At Lucky Garcia Baffert ‘09 Rachel Alexandra Borel Asmussen ‘08 Big Brown Desormx R Dutrow ‘07 Curlin Albarado Asmussen ‘06 Bernardini Castellano Albertrani ‘05 Afleet Alex Rose Ritchey ‘04 Smarty Jones Elliott Jo.Servis
112 109 103 104 105 101 113 114 112 113
Last10 Preakness Stakes Winners’ Preps ‘13 Oxbow 6th ‘12 I‘ll Have Another 1st ‘11 Shackleford 4th ‘10 Lookin At Lucky 6th ‘09 Rachel Alexandra 1st ‘08 Big Brown 1st ‘07 Curlin 3rd ‘06 Bernardini 1st ‘05 Afleet Alex 3rd ‘04 Smarty Jones 1st
Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Oaks (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD) Withers Stakes (Aqu) Kentucky Derby (CD) Kentucky Derby (CD)
Inside the Preakness Stakes Derby winners rarely misfire in the Preakness, which made Orb‘s 4th a year ago even more mystifying. They own a 14: 5-4-1 record in Baltimore since 2000. Seven straight Preakness winners have come off two-week layoffs from Churchill (6 Derby alumni, 1 Oaks). Since ‘83, only three Preakness champs didn‘t exit the Derby. Nine of the last 12 Derby winners have been made the Preakness favorite. Countdown for the Preakness 21 days until Belmont