WORLD ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
global GLOBAL SCENARIO
MIDDLE EAST EASTERN EUROPE/EURASIA INDIA
OECD NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA OECD EUROPE AFRICA
global: energy demand by sector
5 key results | GLOBAL - DEMAND
Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase disproportionately, with households and services the main source of growing consumption (see Figure 5.3). With the exploitation of efficiency measures, however, an even higher increase can be avoided, leading to electricity demand of around 40,900 TWh/a in 2050. Compared to the Reference scenario, efficiency measures avoid the generation of about 12,800 TWh/a. This reduction in energy demand can be achieved in particular by introducing highly efficient electronic devices using the best available technology in all demand sectors. Deployment of solar architecture in both residential and commercial buildings will help to curb the growing demand for active air conditioning.
NON OECD ASIA CHINA OECD ASIA OCEANIA
Efficiency gains in the heat supply sector are even larger than in the electricity sector. Under the Energy [R]evolution scenario, final demand for heat supply can eventually be reduced significantly (see Figure 5.5). Compared to the Reference scenario, consumption equivalent to 46,500 PJ/a is avoided through efficiency measures by 2050. As a result of energy related renovation of the existing stock of residential buildings, as well as the introduction of low energy standards, ‘passive houses’ or even ‘energyplus-houses’ for new buildings, enjoyment of the same comfort and energy services will be accompanied by a much lower future energy demand.
figure 5.2: global: total final energy demand by sector under the reference scenario and the energy [r]evolution scenario (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
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100,000
PJ/a 0 REF
E[R] 2009
76
REF
E[R] 2015
REF
E[R] 2020
REF
E[R] 2030
REF
E[R] 2040
REF
E[R] 2050
‘EFFICIENCY’ OTHER SECTORS INDUSTRY TRANSPORT